投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 合成橡胶 偏弱震荡 宝城期货 陈栋 受近期国内外原油期货价格承压回落拖累，叠加合成橡胶下游轮胎需求偏弱压制。在偏空氛围主导下， 本周以来，合成橡胶期货 2510 合约反弹受阻于 12000 元/吨整数关口，期价暂时陷入调整状态。随着俄乌 冲突有望降温，地缘溢价缩水拖累油价不断走低，并弱化合成橡胶成本支撑。同时国内半钢胎产量小幅回 升，库存走高，企业利润下滑，弱需特征凸显。预计后市合成橡胶期货 2510 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 地缘溢价回吐 成本因素弱化 合成橡胶的主要原料是丁二烯和苯乙烯，它们都是石油炼制过程中的产物。其中，顺丁橡胶几乎完全 由丁二烯聚合而成，丁二烯原料占比高达 95%以上，而丁苯橡胶中丁二烯原料占比 70%左右，苯乙烯原料 占比 30%左右。换言之，原油价格涨跌会影响丁二烯和苯乙烯的价格波动，从而直接决定合成橡胶的生产 成本。上周五，美俄两国元首展开会晤，双方并没有达成任何协议，但是都表示这次会晤富有建设性。接 下来，美俄乌三方将进行新一轮会谈，三方通过谈判尽快结束俄乌冲突的意愿在逐渐升温。从市场所释放 的信号来看， ...

Report Summary - Market focus includes Trump's "major statement" on Russia, OPEC maintaining 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast, and IEA raising 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast while lowering demand growth forecast [7][8] - Key data shows US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels [8] - The main view is that crude oil prices oscillated weakly this week due to the disappointment of sanctions expectations and the geopolitical premium retreat. Looking ahead, factors are mixed, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern [8][52] - The trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $65 - $69 per barrel [9] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors are demand improvement expectations and geopolitical uncertainties; bearish factors are OPEC+ production increase expectations and tariff policy uncertainties [12] Macro Analysis - US tariff negotiations progress slowly and are uncertain. Trump is close to a deal with India, no progress with Japan, and there are large differences with the EU [13] - The issue of firing Powell continues, which may lead to the selling of the US dollar and Treasury bonds. The Fed's "Beige Book" is pessimistic about the economy, indicating that the Fed may remain "on hold" [14] - OPEC maintains supply and demand growth forecasts, while IEA raises supply forecast and lowers demand forecast, with OPEC's June production increasing by 220,000 barrels per day [15] Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's June crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, an increase of 221,000 barrels per day month - on - month, but still below the production increase plan [16][17] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.375 million barrels per day in the week ending July 11, and is expected to remain low [18] - The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 1 to 424 in the week ending July 11, and is expected to stay low [20] Demand - US crude oil consumption demand increased by 1.917 million barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline demand decreased by 835,000 barrels per day week - on - week [26] - US refinery utilization rate was 93.9% in the week ending July 11, supporting crude oil consumption, but with limited growth space in the long term [27] - China's major refinery utilization rate was 81.21% as of July 17, down 0.26 percentage points, and independent refinery utilization rate was 58.54%, up 0.52 percentage points [33] - China's major refinery profits decreased due to rising crude oil costs and high - inventory of refined oil products, while independent refinery profits were flat [38] Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels [43] - Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory increased by 3.399 million barrels in the week ending July 11 [48] Crack Spread - US crude oil crack spread was $20.7 per barrel as of July 16, rebounding slightly week - on - week, indicating the recovery of refined oil consumption [49] Future Outlook - Crude oil prices are expected to continue the oscillating and slightly upward trend in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern due to mixed factors [52]