1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are likely to rebound with volatility due to geopolitical factors and the expected stable production of OPEC+ in October [1][2] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are expected to be volatile, with their upward or downward trends depending on various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [1][2][4][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 10 - month contract rose by $1.58 to $65.59/barrel, a 2.47% increase; Brent 11 - month contract rose by $0.99 to $69.14/barrel, a 1.45% increase; SC2510 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel, up 5.6 yuan/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Kazakhstan's August crude output increased by 2% compared to July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the OPEC+ meeting are influencing factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2510 rose 1.13% to 2852 yuan/ton, and LU2511 rose 2.54% to 3559 yuan/ton. The expected reduction of Western arbitrage goods and high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support prices, but demand lacks highlights [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2510 rose 1.17% to 3551 yuan/ton. In September, northern demand may drive up prices, but supply increases may limit the rise. Overall, supply - demand contradictions may ease [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 fell 0.34% to 4756 yuan/ton, EG2601 fell 1.99% to 4339 yuan/ton, and PX futures fell 0.47% to 6834 yuan/ton. PX fundamentals are weak, and TA prices may be supported. Ethylene glycol futures weakened due to inventory expectations [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2601 rose 10 yuan/ton to 15870 yuan/ton, NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12710 yuan/ton, and BR fell 75 yuan/ton to 11820 yuan/ton. July global natural rubber output slightly decreased. China's August heavy - truck sales were positive, and rubber prices are expected to be volatile [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2235 yuan/ton. Due to profit improvement and the peak season, demand may pick up in September, and prices may enter a bottom - stage area [6] - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventories are shifting to downstream. With stable costs, prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Market prices in different regions showed different trends. Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports may decline. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [8] 3.3 Market News - On August 30, Russia launched large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine, and Ukraine attacked Russian refineries. Ukrainian drone attacks have shut down at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][15][18][21][23][25][26][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over time, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35][38][41][42] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Charts present the spreads and ratios between different commodities, like crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing a decline in prices and demand, with current production levels under pressure due to geopolitical factors and domestic economic conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of August 22, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the asphalt factory warehouse futures inventory stood at 41,710 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - The national average price of asphalt has decreased to 3,793.34 yuan per ton, reflecting a decline of 25.94 yuan per ton or 0.68% week-on-week [1]. - The daily operating load rate for asphalt production in China was recorded at 41.34% on August 20, indicating a continuation of low operational levels [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - New Lake Futures noted that the main asphalt contract Bu2510 initially declined but later improved, mirroring the trends in crude oil prices. The imposition of increased sanctions by the U.S. on Iran has led to a slight recovery in asphalt performance, although supply and demand remain under pressure [2]. - Guotou Anxin Futures highlighted that U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil have strengthened the geopolitical premium on crude oil, causing asphalt prices to rise. Despite a year-on-year increase in output from sample refineries, the overall production of asphalt is showing a downward trend [3]. - The report also indicated that leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds for toll roads and the sales of road rollers are showing positive trends, suggesting that there is still potential demand for asphalt [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the synthetic rubber industry is "Weak and Fluctuating" [1] Core View of the Report - Due to the expected cooling of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium of crude oil has shrunk, weakening the cost support for synthetic rubber. Meanwhile, the resumption of domestic cis-polybutadiene rubber production after maintenance has led to a slight increase in output. Considering the increasing production and sales pressure of semi-steel tires and the obvious slowdown in external demand growth, the synthetic rubber futures are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the future [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Geopolitical Premium Reversal and Cost Factor Weakening - Synthetic rubber is mainly made from butadiene and styrene, which are products of the petroleum refining process. The price of crude oil directly affects the production cost of synthetic rubber. With the increasing willingness to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiation, the international crude oil futures premium is expected to shrink, and the focus of the oil market will shift to the expectation of supply-demand surplus, dragging down the short-term oil price and weakening the cost support for synthetic rubber futures [3] Slight Increase in Domestic Cis-Polybutadiene Rubber Production - In July 2025, China's cis-polybutadiene rubber production reached 129,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,700 tons or 5.47%, and a year-on-year increase of 27.04%. Although there are maintenance expectations for some plants, the production of cis-polybutadiene rubber in August is expected to continue to grow [4] More Maintenance in the Tire Industry and Weakening Rigid Demand for Cis-Polybutadiene Rubber - Since August, the finished product inventory of domestic semi-steel tire enterprises has remained high. As of August 14, 2025, the average inventory turnover days of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 46.73 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.28 days and a year-on-year increase of 9.73 days. In June 2025, China's small passenger car tire exports decreased by 3.47% month-on-month and 11.76% year-on-year. The exports to the EU also faced certain pressure. In the context of weakening external demand for tires, the rigid demand for cis-polybutadiene rubber may weaken in the future [5]

Report Summary - Market focus includes Trump's "major statement" on Russia, OPEC maintaining 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast, and IEA raising 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast while lowering demand growth forecast [7][8] - Key data shows US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels [8] - The main view is that crude oil prices oscillated weakly this week due to the disappointment of sanctions expectations and the geopolitical premium retreat. Looking ahead, factors are mixed, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern [8][52] - The trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $65 - $69 per barrel [9] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors are demand improvement expectations and geopolitical uncertainties; bearish factors are OPEC+ production increase expectations and tariff policy uncertainties [12] Macro Analysis - US tariff negotiations progress slowly and are uncertain. Trump is close to a deal with India, no progress with Japan, and there are large differences with the EU [13] - The issue of firing Powell continues, which may lead to the selling of the US dollar and Treasury bonds. The Fed's "Beige Book" is pessimistic about the economy, indicating that the Fed may remain "on hold" [14] - OPEC maintains supply and demand growth forecasts, while IEA raises supply forecast and lowers demand forecast, with OPEC's June production increasing by 220,000 barrels per day [15] Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's June crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, an increase of 221,000 barrels per day month - on - month, but still below the production increase plan [16][17] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.375 million barrels per day in the week ending July 11, and is expected to remain low [18] - The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 1 to 424 in the week ending July 11, and is expected to stay low [20] Demand - US crude oil consumption demand increased by 1.917 million barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline demand decreased by 835,000 barrels per day week - on - week [26] - US refinery utilization rate was 93.9% in the week ending July 11, supporting crude oil consumption, but with limited growth space in the long term [27] - China's major refinery utilization rate was 81.21% as of July 17, down 0.26 percentage points, and independent refinery utilization rate was 58.54%, up 0.52 percentage points [33] - China's major refinery profits decreased due to rising crude oil costs and high - inventory of refined oil products, while independent refinery profits were flat [38] Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels [43] - Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory increased by 3.399 million barrels in the week ending July 11 [48] Crack Spread - US crude oil crack spread was $20.7 per barrel as of July 16, rebounding slightly week - on - week, indicating the recovery of refined oil consumption [49] Future Outlook - Crude oil prices are expected to continue the oscillating and slightly upward trend in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern due to mixed factors [52]