中邮证券近日发布石化行业周报：PX、PTA供需今年边际好转预期。依据wind和隆众资讯，PX(中国主 港)-石脑油(日本)的价差经过调整后开始稳定在300美元/吨附近，价差节后可能再度走强。春节前最后 一周，申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周上涨-0.82%。而中信三级行业指数表 现来看，工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅1.51%。 回顾：春节前最后一周，申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周上涨-0.82%。而中 信三级行业指数表现来看，工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅1.51%。 原油：原油涨。美原油库存下降，汽油库存下降 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数不同品种涨跌不一，织机开工率跌 烯烃：样本PE现货价格跌，聚烯烃石化库存上涨 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 焦点：假期美伊局势不明朗，原油获得地缘溢价。PX、PTA供需今年边际好转预期。依据wind和隆众 资讯，PX(中国主港)-石脑油(日本)的价差经过调整后开始稳定在300美元/吨附近，价差节后可能再度走 强。 标的： 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰 ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-02-05 站在品种自身基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油当前基本面偏强，亚太地区现货边际收紧，市场结构较为坚挺。且 由于高硫燃料油是伊朗的主要出口产品之一，因此对于伊朗局势的风险敞口较大。此外，在委内瑞拉原油供应减 少后，国内沥青炼厂开始寻找替代原料，伊朗原油和燃料油是潜在选项，高硫燃料油需求存在一定增量预期。低 硫燃料油当前基本面矛盾不明显，市场压力有限，因此主要跟随原油端波动。 策略 高硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势走向 低硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势走向 跨品种：无 跨期：逢低多FU2603/2605价差（正套） 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 伊朗局势仍不明朗，炼厂端需求增量可期 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.98%，报2797元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.39%，报3268 元/吨。 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大。周初伊朗与美国计划开展谈判的消息一度导致油价大幅回撤。昨日局 势再度出现波折，伊朗无人机被美军击落，市场担忧情绪再度升温，原油地 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2026-01-27 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3406—3550元/吨；山东，3080—3240元/吨；华南，3200—3300元/吨； 华东，3160—3230元/吨。 近期中东局势显著升温，美国上周五加大了对伊朗的施压，对运输伊朗石油的船只实施更多制裁，并宣布一支舰 队正驶向这个中东国家。伊朗不同于委内瑞拉，由于其地缘位置的重要性，可能波及周边重要产油国以及霍尔木 兹海峡，因此油市对伊朗局势的敏感性远大于委内瑞拉。市场担忧美国、以色列对伊朗采取军事打击，从而造成 大规模石油断供，原油地缘溢价攀升，并带动下游能化商品上涨。 昨日山东、华东、华南沥青现货价格均出现上涨，市场当前主要驱动来自于成本端，盘面在定价委油供应收紧预 期后一度进入震荡阶段。近日地缘局势升温，稀释沥青贴水远月报价显著上涨，国内产业端远期备货积极性提升， 带动盘面再度走强。目前来看，在美国意图加强控制委内瑞拉资源的背景下，委内瑞拉原油对国内炼厂供应收紧 的预期已在逐步兑现，沥青成本端支撑较为坚挺，但终端需求的疲软与替代原料的可得性则将制约市场的上方空 间。 策略 原油情绪溢价上涨，成本端支撑稳固 市场分析 1 ...

Group 1 - Russian President's assistant Ushakov commented on the recent discussions between Russia and the U.S. regarding Ukraine's NATO membership and the impact of Russian military successes on Western evaluations of conflict resolution [2] - U.S. President Trump described the meeting between U.S. envoys and President Putin as "quite good," although he could not disclose the outcomes of the talks [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukraine is preparing for a new round of talks with U.S. representatives, emphasizing ongoing coordination with partners [5][6] Group 2 - The Turkish Foreign Minister discussed Black Sea security and the end of the Ukraine crisis with NATO Secretary-General during a meeting, following recent attacks on Russian vessels in the Black Sea [8] - Venezuela's oil exports increased to approximately 921,000 barrels per day in November, despite U.S. pressure, marking the third-highest monthly average this year [10] - The geopolitical factors have led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, with recent data indicating a potential oversupply in the market [12][13]

Group 1 - Russian President's assistant Ushakov commented on the recent discussions between Russia and the US regarding Ukraine's NATO membership and the impact of Russian military successes on Western evaluations of conflict resolution [3][4][19] - The US and Russia held a productive meeting on a "peace plan," with US representatives reporting positively to President Trump [5][20] - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced preparations for a new round of talks with US representatives, emphasizing ongoing coordination with partners [6][21] Group 2 - Turkey's Foreign Minister discussed Black Sea security and the Ukraine crisis with NATO Secretary-General during a meeting, amid recent attacks on Russian vessels in the Black Sea [7][21] - Venezuela's oil exports increased to approximately 921,000 barrels per day in November, despite US military actions in the Caribbean [8][22] - The international oil market is experiencing volatility due to geopolitical factors, with recent price fluctuations and concerns over oversupply [9][23] Group 3 - The expectation of a significant return of Russian oil supply is rising as peace talks progress, but the outcome remains uncertain [11][24] - OPEC+ has maintained its production levels, contributing to concerns about oversupply in the global oil market [14][27] - The increase in global oil shipping and floating storage is expected to exert pressure on land inventories and oil prices [28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene market remains in a low - level oscillation. The supply pressure persists due to high - level domestic production and limited demand absorption. The price is likely to fall rather than rise in the long - term, with short - term month - to - month spread strengthening. Attention should be paid to import rhythm and downstream open - run sustainability [2] - The supply of styrene is temporarily tightened due to concentrated equipment maintenance. It will be in a tight - balance state from October to November. The short - term inventory is expected to decline slightly, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline. However, the cost support weakens, and the price fluctuates with crude oil. Short - term, it is expected to maintain a range - bound and strong trend [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Information - **Price**: On October 16, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.92% at 6600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 65 (- 65 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed up 1.17% at 5644 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5685 yuan/ton (+ 95 yuan/ton) [2] - **Cost**: On October 16, Brent crude oil closed at 57.8 dollars/barrel (- 0.9 dollars/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at 61.9 dollars/barrel (- 0.5 dollars/barrel) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 19.7 tons (- 0.5 tons), a month - on - month de - stocking of 2.7%. Pure benzene port inventory was 9.0 tons (- 0.1 tons), a month - on - month de - stocking of 1.1% [2] - **Supply**: Styrene's weekly output was 33.9 tons (- 0.8 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 71.9% (- 1.7%) [2] - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries picked up. The capacity utilization rate of EPS was 62.5% (+ 21.8%), ABS was 73.1% (+ 0.6%), and PS was 53.8% (- 0.8%) [2] 3.1.2 Views - **Pure benzene**: Domestic pure benzene device maintenance was postponed, and some long - stopped small devices planned to resume operation. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter remained. Although there were new downstream device productions, the terminal market was weak, and the high supply was difficult to be digested. The market was mainly in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price was prone to fall [2] - **Styrene**: The supply was temporarily tightened due to equipment maintenance. Newly - put - into - production devices might start production in mid - to - late October. From October to November, it would maintain a tight - balance state. The demand was supported by the rigid needs of ABS and EPS enterprises, and the short - term inventory was expected to decline slightly [3] 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Price Data - **Styrene and pure benzene prices**: From October 13 to 14, the main styrene futures contract decreased by 2.18%, and the spot price remained unchanged. The main pure benzene futures contract decreased by 1.50%, and the price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 1.49%. The CFR price of pure benzene in China increased by 2.15% [5] - **Upstream prices**: From October 13 to 14, Brent crude oil increased by 1.00%, WTI crude oil increased by 0.94%, and the price of naphtha remained unchanged [5] 3.2.2 Output and Inventory Data - **Output**: From October 3 to 10, China's styrene output increased by 3.32%, and pure benzene output increased by 0.70% [6] - **Inventory**: From October 3 to 10, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 2.23%, and the domestic factory inventory decreased by 4.63%. The national port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 14.15% [6] 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization Data - **Pure benzene downstream**: From October 3 to 10, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased by 2.37%, that of aniline increased by 1.12%, and that of phenol decreased by 0.34%. The capacity utilization rate of caprolactam remained unchanged [7] - **Styrene downstream**: From October 3 to 10, the capacity utilization rate of EPS decreased by 2.37%, ABS increased by 1.50%, and PS decreased by 1.70% [7] 3.3 Industry News - OPEC+ output in September increased by 400,000 barrels per day month - on - month, with Saudi Arabia contributing 320,000 barrels per day. Iraq's oil output in the Kurdistan region might further increase in October [8] - US refineries entered autumn maintenance, and the demand for refined oil decreased seasonally. Last week, US crude oil inventory increased by 3.7 million barrels more than expected [8] - Israel and Hamas reached a cease - fire agreement, easing the tension in the Middle East and reducing the geopolitical premium of crude oil [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [9][13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are likely to rebound with volatility due to geopolitical factors and the expected stable production of OPEC+ in October [1][2] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are expected to be volatile, with their upward or downward trends depending on various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [1][2][4][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 10 - month contract rose by $1.58 to $65.59/barrel, a 2.47% increase; Brent 11 - month contract rose by $0.99 to $69.14/barrel, a 1.45% increase; SC2510 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel, up 5.6 yuan/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Kazakhstan's August crude output increased by 2% compared to July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the OPEC+ meeting are influencing factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2510 rose 1.13% to 2852 yuan/ton, and LU2511 rose 2.54% to 3559 yuan/ton. The expected reduction of Western arbitrage goods and high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support prices, but demand lacks highlights [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2510 rose 1.17% to 3551 yuan/ton. In September, northern demand may drive up prices, but supply increases may limit the rise. Overall, supply - demand contradictions may ease [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 fell 0.34% to 4756 yuan/ton, EG2601 fell 1.99% to 4339 yuan/ton, and PX futures fell 0.47% to 6834 yuan/ton. PX fundamentals are weak, and TA prices may be supported. Ethylene glycol futures weakened due to inventory expectations [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2601 rose 10 yuan/ton to 15870 yuan/ton, NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12710 yuan/ton, and BR fell 75 yuan/ton to 11820 yuan/ton. July global natural rubber output slightly decreased. China's August heavy - truck sales were positive, and rubber prices are expected to be volatile [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2235 yuan/ton. Due to profit improvement and the peak season, demand may pick up in September, and prices may enter a bottom - stage area [6] - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventories are shifting to downstream. With stable costs, prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Market prices in different regions showed different trends. Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports may decline. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [8] 3.3 Market News - On August 30, Russia launched large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine, and Ukraine attacked Russian refineries. Ukrainian drone attacks have shut down at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][15][18][21][23][25][26][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over time, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35][38][41][42] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Charts present the spreads and ratios between different commodities, like crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing a decline in prices and demand, with current production levels under pressure due to geopolitical factors and domestic economic conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of August 22, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the asphalt factory warehouse futures inventory stood at 41,710 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - The national average price of asphalt has decreased to 3,793.34 yuan per ton, reflecting a decline of 25.94 yuan per ton or 0.68% week-on-week [1]. - The daily operating load rate for asphalt production in China was recorded at 41.34% on August 20, indicating a continuation of low operational levels [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - New Lake Futures noted that the main asphalt contract Bu2510 initially declined but later improved, mirroring the trends in crude oil prices. The imposition of increased sanctions by the U.S. on Iran has led to a slight recovery in asphalt performance, although supply and demand remain under pressure [2]. - Guotou Anxin Futures highlighted that U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil have strengthened the geopolitical premium on crude oil, causing asphalt prices to rise. Despite a year-on-year increase in output from sample refineries, the overall production of asphalt is showing a downward trend [3]. - The report also indicated that leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds for toll roads and the sales of road rollers are showing positive trends, suggesting that there is still potential demand for asphalt [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the synthetic rubber industry is "Weak and Fluctuating" [1] Core View of the Report - Due to the expected cooling of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium of crude oil has shrunk, weakening the cost support for synthetic rubber. Meanwhile, the resumption of domestic cis-polybutadiene rubber production after maintenance has led to a slight increase in output. Considering the increasing production and sales pressure of semi-steel tires and the obvious slowdown in external demand growth, the synthetic rubber futures are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the future [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Geopolitical Premium Reversal and Cost Factor Weakening - Synthetic rubber is mainly made from butadiene and styrene, which are products of the petroleum refining process. The price of crude oil directly affects the production cost of synthetic rubber. With the increasing willingness to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiation, the international crude oil futures premium is expected to shrink, and the focus of the oil market will shift to the expectation of supply-demand surplus, dragging down the short-term oil price and weakening the cost support for synthetic rubber futures [3] Slight Increase in Domestic Cis-Polybutadiene Rubber Production - In July 2025, China's cis-polybutadiene rubber production reached 129,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,700 tons or 5.47%, and a year-on-year increase of 27.04%. Although there are maintenance expectations for some plants, the production of cis-polybutadiene rubber in August is expected to continue to grow [4] More Maintenance in the Tire Industry and Weakening Rigid Demand for Cis-Polybutadiene Rubber - Since August, the finished product inventory of domestic semi-steel tire enterprises has remained high. As of August 14, 2025, the average inventory turnover days of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 46.73 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.28 days and a year-on-year increase of 9.73 days. In June 2025, China's small passenger car tire exports decreased by 3.47% month-on-month and 11.76% year-on-year. The exports to the EU also faced certain pressure. In the context of weakening external demand for tires, the rigid demand for cis-polybutadiene rubber may weaken in the future [5]

Report Summary - Market focus includes Trump's "major statement" on Russia, OPEC maintaining 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast, and IEA raising 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast while lowering demand growth forecast [7][8] - Key data shows US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels [8] - The main view is that crude oil prices oscillated weakly this week due to the disappointment of sanctions expectations and the geopolitical premium retreat. Looking ahead, factors are mixed, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern [8][52] - The trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $65 - $69 per barrel [9] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors are demand improvement expectations and geopolitical uncertainties; bearish factors are OPEC+ production increase expectations and tariff policy uncertainties [12] Macro Analysis - US tariff negotiations progress slowly and are uncertain. Trump is close to a deal with India, no progress with Japan, and there are large differences with the EU [13] - The issue of firing Powell continues, which may lead to the selling of the US dollar and Treasury bonds. The Fed's "Beige Book" is pessimistic about the economy, indicating that the Fed may remain "on hold" [14] - OPEC maintains supply and demand growth forecasts, while IEA raises supply forecast and lowers demand forecast, with OPEC's June production increasing by 220,000 barrels per day [15] Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's June crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, an increase of 221,000 barrels per day month - on - month, but still below the production increase plan [16][17] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.375 million barrels per day in the week ending July 11, and is expected to remain low [18] - The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 1 to 424 in the week ending July 11, and is expected to stay low [20] Demand - US crude oil consumption demand increased by 1.917 million barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline demand decreased by 835,000 barrels per day week - on - week [26] - US refinery utilization rate was 93.9% in the week ending July 11, supporting crude oil consumption, but with limited growth space in the long term [27] - China's major refinery utilization rate was 81.21% as of July 17, down 0.26 percentage points, and independent refinery utilization rate was 58.54%, up 0.52 percentage points [33] - China's major refinery profits decreased due to rising crude oil costs and high - inventory of refined oil products, while independent refinery profits were flat [38] Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels [43] - Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory increased by 3.399 million barrels in the week ending July 11 [48] Crack Spread - US crude oil crack spread was $20.7 per barrel as of July 16, rebounding slightly week - on - week, indicating the recovery of refined oil consumption [49] Future Outlook - Crude oil prices are expected to continue the oscillating and slightly upward trend in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern due to mixed factors [52]