2025年，A股市场呈现全面上行格局，主要股指累计涨幅均超10%。成长型板块表现尤为突出，创业板指、 北证50及科创50指数全年涨幅均超过30%。结 构性行情特征明显，科技与资源类板块在全年行情中表现居前，光模块（CPO）指数全年上涨超过180%，光芯片、覆铜板、光通信及光电路交换机等指 数涨幅均超过100%。同时，稀有金属、铜产业及稀土相关指数表现活跃，成为2025全年热门主线。 1.3 A股风格指数表现 市场篇 1.1 A股主要股指表现 2025年度A股主要股指均呈上涨态势。创业板指领涨，累计涨幅达49.57%，北证50、科创50指数累计涨幅分别为38.80%、35.92%，深证成指、万得全A、 中证1000指数累计涨幅均超20%，分别为29.87%、27.65%、27.49%，上证指数、沪深300、上证50指数累计涨幅均超10%。 1.2 A股行业表现 在Wind二级行业分类的35个行业中，2025年度共有31个行业录得上涨。有色金属行业涨幅居首，累计涨幅达92.20%；硬件设备、工业贸易与综合行业涨 幅居前，分别累计上涨62.39%、54.65%。日常消费零售行业表现垫底，累计下跌6.42%；电信服务 ...

华创证券指出，尽管美联储"鹰派"降息导致铝价短暂走弱，但全球铝库存仍维持120-125万吨的低位， 安全库存处于较低水平。海外项目因电力问题减产及印尼增量释放缓慢，未来2-3年全球铝供需或维持 紧平衡，库存可能持续低位，对铝价形成支撑。从金融属性看，铜铝比创年内新高，历史铜铝比多在 3.3-3.7之间，意味着铝仍有补涨空间。若美国因缺电导致减产，铝价上涨弹性可能更强。电解铝行业平 均利润约5500元/吨，伴随氧化铝价格下行，行业利润有望维持高位。电解铝企业现金流持续修复，盈 利稳定性提升，且未来资本开支强度较低，红利资产属性逐步凸显。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及有色金属开采、冶炼 及加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。指数 成分股具有显著的周期性特征，其表现易受全球经济形势、供需关系变化以及金属价格波动的影响。行 业配置主要覆盖铜、铝、铅锌及稀有金属等子领域，集中体现了资源类股票的市场特性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Trade Relations - The meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi resulted in a trade truce, with the U.S. cutting fentanyl tariffs from 20% to 10%, leading to a cumulative tariff on China of 47% [3][4] - China has committed to purchasing soybeans, although no specific dollar amount or tonnage was provided, creating uncertainty in the grain market [5][6] - China is expected to reopen rare earth exports for one year and potentially reduce chemicals needed for fentanyl production [4][8] Market Reactions - The market reaction has been mixed, with some fluctuations in equity and commodity markets following the meeting [10][13] - Rare earth stocks are experiencing varied performance, with MP Materials down approximately 0.7% [14] - The agricultural sector is under scrutiny, particularly regarding China's past failures to meet soybean purchase commitments under previous agreements [11][12] Energy Sector - There are discussions about China potentially buying U.S. oil, especially from Alaska, but current inventory levels in China are high, leading to skepticism about immediate purchases [21][22] - OPEC Plus may increase production due to supply disruptions from Russian sanctions, aiming to regain market share and manage U.S. shale production [24] - Geopolitical dynamics, including military movements in Venezuela, could impact oil resources and OPEC Plus's influence [25][26]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 4000 points, driven by a surge in the new energy industry chain, particularly in power and new energy equipment, metal materials and mining, and comprehensive finance and insurance sectors [2][4][7] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.93%. The total market turnover reached 2.29 trillion yuan, with 2664 stocks rising [2][7][4] Industry Performance - On October 29, 2025, the leading sectors included: - Power and new energy equipment (+4.65%) - Metal materials and mining (+3.75%) - Comprehensive finance (+2.23%) and insurance (+1.65%) - Conversely, the banking, food and beverage, textile and apparel, and testing services sectors lagged [7][4] Conceptual Trends - Key concepts leading the market included: - Photovoltaic inverters (+5.54%) - Industrial metals (+5.28%) - Anti-involution (+4.97%) - Rare metals (+4.88%) - The banking sector and concepts related to state-owned banks and minimum market capitalization faced declines [7][4] Market Drivers - The market's upward movement was attributed to: - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing increased new energy supply - Strong quarterly reports from leading energy storage companies - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle benefiting lithium mining leaders, leading to a rally in the non-ferrous metals sector [7][4] Future Outlook - A slow bull market is anticipated, with Chinese assets likely to continue revaluation. The report suggests that the economic demand driven by traditional real estate is declining, while new productive forces are gradually gaining traction [7][4] Investment Strategy - Recommended investment directions include: 1. High-quality supply creating new demand in emerging tech industries like AI and robotics 2. Scarce supply deserving valuation premiums, particularly in metals driven by energy transition and geopolitical factors 3. Valuation recovery from excess capacity clearance in industries like photovoltaics and chemicals 4. Focus on insurance and brokerage sectors, as low-interest rates encourage residents to allocate more to equity assets, enhancing market activity [7][4]

Core Insights - The A-share market has surpassed 3900 points, driven primarily by precious metals like gold and silver, rather than AI or new energy sectors [4][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97 points, marking a ten-year high with a trading volume exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, indicating significant market activity [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global risk aversion has increased due to tensions in the Middle East and a weakening dollar, making precious metals a "ballast" for investors [5] - The strong performance of precious metals is not merely speculative but reflects a revaluation of the underlying logic of Chinese manufacturing [5] Group 2: Sector Performance - The consumer sector, including film and tourism, has seen a pullback, suggesting a shift in consumer behavior from "buying for excitement" to "buying for quality" [5] - The current market reflects a balance between "risk aversion and growth," with the strength of precious metals being a rational choice amid global anxiety [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (603993) for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 9%, citing expected increases in copper and other rare metal prices, which will drive a 38% growth in recurring profits for the year [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Target Price - The target price for Luoyang Molybdenum's H-shares has been increased from HKD 9.5 to HKD 10.8 [1] - The target price for Luoyang Molybdenum's A-shares has been raised from CNY 11.5 to CNY 13 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum reported a net profit of CNY 8.67 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 60% [1] - Excluding one-time items, the recurring net profit was CNY 8.62 billion, a year-on-year growth of 52%, which exceeded market expectations but was 8% lower than Goldman Sachs' forecast due to higher-than-expected sales costs in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the implementation of policies is expected to optimize the supply-side capacity structure of non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum, leading to the elimination of outdated capacity and improving the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand linkages [1] - The mid-term profits from copper smelting and alumina production are expected to gradually recover as the demand structure is optimized, particularly in the renewable energy sector, which is anticipated to maintain optimistic growth [1] - The non-ferrous metals steady growth work plan will focus on stabilizing growth and promoting transformation, with coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides to ensure efficient resource utilization and improve the quality of supply through deep processing materials [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining and processing of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] - The index exhibits strong cyclical characteristics, effectively reflecting market trends in the non-ferrous metal industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the trade war initiated by President Trump has failed, with recent agreements seen as a retreat rather than a victory for the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, with a notable increase of 300% in container bookings from China, indicating a strong recovery in trade activities [1] - The joint statement from the U.S. and China announced the cancellation of 91% of the imposed tariffs and a 90-day suspension of 24% "reciprocal tariffs," marking a substantial easing of tensions [1][3] Group 2 - China has emphasized the importance of controlling strategic mineral exports and has taken measures to address smuggling issues, indicating a cautious approach despite the tariff reductions [3] - The language used in the joint statement reflects a mutual understanding and respect, suggesting a shift towards cooperation rather than confrontation in trade relations [3] - The U.S. business community is calling for further tariff reductions, particularly regarding the 20% tariff on Chinese goods related to fentanyl, but there are political tensions surrounding this issue [5] Group 3 - The unpredictable nature of U.S. tariff policies under Trump has created significant uncertainty for U.S.-China trade, leading businesses to adopt a cautious stance when accepting large orders from the U.S. [6] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in predicting economic and inflation trends due to the fluctuating policies, with Trump urging for interest rate cuts to mitigate inflation caused by tariffs [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a calm and patient attitude in the face of ongoing U.S.-China trade disputes, advocating for a pragmatic approach to negotiations and mutual understanding [2][28]. Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Details - The U.S. has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and modifying a 34% tariff, with 24% of it suspended for 90 days, while retaining 10% [5]. - China reciprocates by canceling 91% of its counter-tariffs on U.S. goods and suspending 24% of the 34% counter-tariff for 90 days, keeping 10% intact [5][9]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, A-shares surged, recovering losses from the previous month, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.98% [31][36]. - U.S. markets also reacted positively, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.11% and companies like Amazon and Apple seeing significant stock price increases [34]. Economic Implications - The trade agreement is expected to create a busy export-import window for both countries in the next 90 days, coinciding with major U.S. shopping seasons [47]. - Concerns remain about the long-term implications of tariffs, particularly the potential for a 20% tariff on fentanyl-related products, which may require further negotiations [42]. Strategic Insights - The article suggests that the current negotiation phase presents an opportunity for China to strengthen trade ties with other economies, such as the EU and Japan, to enhance economic interdependence [54][55]. - Companies are encouraged to build resilience in their operations, focusing on global supply chain management and digital strategies to adapt to future uncertainties [58][60].

文/李悦 2025年4月初，一场由美国单方面挑起的关税风暴席卷全球，且战争似才开场。政策制定者面临诸 多难题，内需能否抵御外需压力、关税战长期化有哪些储备工具等成关注焦点。 资本市场上，危机在全球蔓延。美股动荡、美债遭抛售、美元指数创新低，资金涌入致黄金价格屡创 新高，市场正在以脚投票的方式表达对美国的信任危机。而中国资本市场展现韧性，A股在4月7 日"黑色星期一"后持续反弹，期间上证指数累计涨幅超6%。 "关税战"走向不明，投资者决策困局重重。美股跌到底了吗？黄金的强劲走势是否还能持续？A股命 运又将如何？哪些资产可能成为新一代"硬通货"？ 围绕上述问题，和讯网对话清华大学国家金融研究院院长、五道口金融学院副院长田轩。 田轩表示，特朗普的关税政策使美国经济不确定性增加，资金逃离美国资产是合理避险，开始寻求新 的避险港湾。若关税战持续，黄金、稀有金属、优质房地产、高信用评级债券和国债等将成为"硬通 货"。 谈及A股，他认为长期来看，A股处于估值低位，受科技创新和内需扩大的双重驱动将稳健向上，科 技、新能源等新兴产业板块配置价值高。 01 关税博弈从贸易摩擦转向战略对抗 和讯网：您判断关税战会长期存在吗？若长期 ...