反观消费板块，影视院线、旅游酒店齐齐回调，仿佛"节后人还在路上，钱包还没回来"。但这并非衰退，而是节奏换挡。中国人的消费力没有消失，只是在 从"买热闹"走向"买品质"。 你可能没想到，今天带领A股突破3900点的"主角"，不是AI、不是新能源，而是黄金、白银和稀有金属。 它们集体暴涨，就像在说："当世界焦虑时，我们最闪亮"。上证指数高开高走，收报3933.97点，创下十年来新高，成交额超2.6万亿，热度堪比"双11"预售 夜。 为什么金属闪耀？ 一是全球避险情绪升温，中东局势紧张、美元走弱，让贵金属成了"压舱石"；二是产业逻辑支撑，小金属、工业金属紧随其后，从新能源电池到风电装备， 全靠这些"硬家伙"撑场。这不是投机，而是"中国制造底层逻辑"的再定价。 《A股突破3900点：贵金属闪耀，消费歇脚》 ——当避险情绪遇上结构转型，中国股市正在讲一个"硬核"的新故事 今天的A股，是一次关于"避险与成长"的平衡术。贵金属的强势不是偶然，而是全球焦虑下的理性选择；消费板块的调整，也不是寒冬，而是中国生活方式 的再平衡。 市场在分化，但中国经济的底气，却在这场轮动中愈发闪亮。 （唐加文，笔名金观平；本文成稿后，经AI审阅 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (603993) for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 9%, citing expected increases in copper and other rare metal prices, which will drive a 38% growth in recurring profits for the year [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Target Price - The target price for Luoyang Molybdenum's H-shares has been increased from HKD 9.5 to HKD 10.8 [1] - The target price for Luoyang Molybdenum's A-shares has been raised from CNY 11.5 to CNY 13 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum reported a net profit of CNY 8.67 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 60% [1] - Excluding one-time items, the recurring net profit was CNY 8.62 billion, a year-on-year growth of 52%, which exceeded market expectations but was 8% lower than Goldman Sachs' forecast due to higher-than-expected sales costs in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the implementation of policies is expected to optimize the supply-side capacity structure of non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum, leading to the elimination of outdated capacity and improving the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand linkages [1] - The mid-term profits from copper smelting and alumina production are expected to gradually recover as the demand structure is optimized, particularly in the renewable energy sector, which is anticipated to maintain optimistic growth [1] - The non-ferrous metals steady growth work plan will focus on stabilizing growth and promoting transformation, with coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides to ensure efficient resource utilization and improve the quality of supply through deep processing materials [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining and processing of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] - The index exhibits strong cyclical characteristics, effectively reflecting market trends in the non-ferrous metal industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the trade war initiated by President Trump has failed, with recent agreements seen as a retreat rather than a victory for the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, with a notable increase of 300% in container bookings from China, indicating a strong recovery in trade activities [1] - The joint statement from the U.S. and China announced the cancellation of 91% of the imposed tariffs and a 90-day suspension of 24% "reciprocal tariffs," marking a substantial easing of tensions [1][3] Group 2 - China has emphasized the importance of controlling strategic mineral exports and has taken measures to address smuggling issues, indicating a cautious approach despite the tariff reductions [3] - The language used in the joint statement reflects a mutual understanding and respect, suggesting a shift towards cooperation rather than confrontation in trade relations [3] - The U.S. business community is calling for further tariff reductions, particularly regarding the 20% tariff on Chinese goods related to fentanyl, but there are political tensions surrounding this issue [5] Group 3 - The unpredictable nature of U.S. tariff policies under Trump has created significant uncertainty for U.S.-China trade, leading businesses to adopt a cautious stance when accepting large orders from the U.S. [6] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in predicting economic and inflation trends due to the fluctuating policies, with Trump urging for interest rate cuts to mitigate inflation caused by tariffs [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a calm and patient attitude in the face of ongoing U.S.-China trade disputes, advocating for a pragmatic approach to negotiations and mutual understanding [2][28]. Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Details - The U.S. has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and modifying a 34% tariff, with 24% of it suspended for 90 days, while retaining 10% [5]. - China reciprocates by canceling 91% of its counter-tariffs on U.S. goods and suspending 24% of the 34% counter-tariff for 90 days, keeping 10% intact [5][9]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, A-shares surged, recovering losses from the previous month, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.98% [31][36]. - U.S. markets also reacted positively, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.11% and companies like Amazon and Apple seeing significant stock price increases [34]. Economic Implications - The trade agreement is expected to create a busy export-import window for both countries in the next 90 days, coinciding with major U.S. shopping seasons [47]. - Concerns remain about the long-term implications of tariffs, particularly the potential for a 20% tariff on fentanyl-related products, which may require further negotiations [42]. Strategic Insights - The article suggests that the current negotiation phase presents an opportunity for China to strengthen trade ties with other economies, such as the EU and Japan, to enhance economic interdependence [54][55]. - Companies are encouraged to build resilience in their operations, focusing on global supply chain management and digital strategies to adapt to future uncertainties [58][60].

文/李悦 2025年4月初，一场由美国单方面挑起的关税风暴席卷全球，且战争似才开场。政策制定者面临诸 多难题，内需能否抵御外需压力、关税战长期化有哪些储备工具等成关注焦点。 资本市场上，危机在全球蔓延。美股动荡、美债遭抛售、美元指数创新低，资金涌入致黄金价格屡创 新高，市场正在以脚投票的方式表达对美国的信任危机。而中国资本市场展现韧性，A股在4月7 日"黑色星期一"后持续反弹，期间上证指数累计涨幅超6%。 "关税战"走向不明，投资者决策困局重重。美股跌到底了吗？黄金的强劲走势是否还能持续？A股命 运又将如何？哪些资产可能成为新一代"硬通货"？ 围绕上述问题，和讯网对话清华大学国家金融研究院院长、五道口金融学院副院长田轩。 田轩表示，特朗普的关税政策使美国经济不确定性增加，资金逃离美国资产是合理避险，开始寻求新 的避险港湾。若关税战持续，黄金、稀有金属、优质房地产、高信用评级债券和国债等将成为"硬通 货"。 谈及A股，他认为长期来看，A股处于估值低位，受科技创新和内需扩大的双重驱动将稳健向上，科 技、新能源等新兴产业板块配置价值高。 01 关税博弈从贸易摩擦转向战略对抗 和讯网：您判断关税战会长期存在吗？若长期 ...

Core Points - A landmark mineral agreement between Ukraine and the United States is set to strengthen economic ties, with Ukraine committing 50% of future natural resource revenues to a reconstruction fund [1][2] - The agreement includes a long-term financial commitment from the U.S. to support Ukraine's stability and economic prosperity, although it does not directly address security arrangements against Russian aggression [2][6] U.S. Business Perspective - The American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine views the agreement positively, highlighting the establishment of a new fund focused on state-owned enterprises and Ukraine's rich underground resources [3] - The fund is expected to introduce professional management to state-owned enterprises, which currently face mismanagement issues, potentially leading to profitability [3] - Discussions about Ukraine's economic potential have been a priority in U.S.-Ukraine relations since early 2024, with the expectation that peace must be achieved for these opportunities to be realized [3] Agreement Details - Negotiations for the agreement resulted in more favorable terms for Ukraine, reducing the initial U.S. demand for $500 billion from Ukraine's natural resources [5] - The agreement does not include the security guarantees that Ukraine originally sought, and the U.S. retains decision-making authority over the fund under U.S. law [5] Geopolitical Impact - The agreement is framed by the U.S. as a step towards strengthening Ukraine's economy, despite controversies surrounding President Trump's comments about Ukraine's leadership [6] - There are concerns about whether this economic partnership can lead to lasting peace and stability in Ukraine [7]