Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the photovoltaic (PV) industry in China, highlighting the government's efforts to combat "involution" and promote healthy competition among companies [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Regulation and Competition - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to strengthen market mechanisms to eliminate inefficient production capacities and prevent "involution" in competition [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association, along with 16 leading companies, set a minimum cost price for PV modules at 0.68 yuan/W, marking a clear boundary against illegal low-cost bidding [2] - The 15th Manufacturing Enterprise Symposium reiterated the importance of legal and regulatory measures to address chaotic low-price competition in the PV sector [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - In 2024, China's newly installed PV capacity reached 277 million kW, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%, with a significant surge in distributed PV installations before May 31 [3] - By May 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of PV power generation exceeded 1 billion kW, accounting for 30% of the total installed capacity in China and nearly half of the global PV capacity [3] - A decline in new installed capacity is expected in the second half of the year as the "rush to install" phase concludes, leading to a forecasted decrease in terminal demand [3] Group 3: Price Trends in Silicon and Organic Silicon - Industrial silicon prices have shown a downward trend, with a current price of 9,000 yuan/ton, down 21.9% from the beginning of the year and 31.4% from the average price in 2024 [4] - Recent price increases in industrial silicon are attributed to production cuts by major manufacturers in Xinjiang, despite some recovery in Yunnan's production due to seasonal factors [4] - The organic silicon DMC price initially rose but has since declined, with a current average price of 10,800 yuan/ton, down 16.9% since the beginning of the year [5] - The organic silicon industry is expected to undergo a consolidation phase, with limited new capacity coming online, suggesting that further price declines may be constrained [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in silicon wafer prices is attributed to weakening market expectations for future terminal demand, shifting industry sentiment from positive to negative [2] Group 1: Silicon Wafer Prices - This week, the average transaction prices for various types of N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers have decreased slightly, with G10L wafers priced at 1.26 RMB per piece (down 1.56% week-on-week), G12R wafers at 1.52 RMB per piece (down 1.30%), and G12 wafers at 1.55 RMB per piece (down 2.52%) [1] - The market sentiment has noticeably weakened, leading to a halt in the price increase of silicon wafers, with small-volume low-price orders being executed and prices for all models showing a downward trend [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in silicon wafer prices is driven by expectations of reduced terminal component demand, with downstream entities exhibiting increased caution as the "430" node approaches, leading to a decrease in battery consumption [2] - The end of the rush for installations has resulted in weakened demand for silicon wafers, transitioning the market from a tight supply to a more relaxed situation [2] - In early orders, a prevalent low-price procurement mentality among downstream buyers, combined with U.S. tariff policies, has contributed to the weakening market atmosphere [2] Group 3: Production and Pricing Trends - The overall industry operating rate this week is reported to be between 50%-58%, with leading companies maintaining rates of 58% and 60%, while integrated companies operate at 60%-80% and others at 55%-80% [2] - Prices in the terminal component and battery segments have also seen slight declines, with mainstream battery prices at 0.30-0.32 RMB/W (down 0.02-0.03 RMB/W) and distributed component prices at 0.72-0.74 RMB/W (down 0.04-0.06 RMB/W) [2] - Despite the expectation of declining demand following the end of the installation rush, recent local government policies, such as full-grid support for commercial distributed projects in Jiangsu, suggest that the market may stabilize and that the downward space for silicon wafer prices may be limited [2]