佳木斯车务段鹤北站助理值班员 祁世家：发往天南海北的，你看，济南铁路局的，武汉铁路局的，上海铁路局的，发的粮食都是"进关"的。 夜幕降临，2500吨新下线的秋粮亟待启运。 在黑龙江广袤的黑土地上，佳鹤铁路如一条钢铁动脉向北延伸。在尽头处的鹤北站，"秋粮运输"的"第一棒"已经按下了"加速键"。 鹤北站位于鹤北铁路线的尽头。秋粮入仓后，这里就成了最繁忙的"粮食驿站"。哈铁物流中心货运员屈俊廷，正仔细检查着一节节满载的车厢。每一个卡 扣、每一处缝隙，都逃不过他的眼睛。这列车，承载的不仅是粮食，更是沉甸甸的责任。 每天，除了两趟旅客列车短暂的停靠，其余的分秒光阴，几乎都属于粮食运输。10月份以来，这座仅有22人的小站，已经向全国发送近2亿斤龙江粮，足以 满足一座千万人口大城市近一个月的口粮需求。 佳木斯车务段鹤北站助理值班员 祁世家：货车基本上得来40多辆呢，这个季节正是咱们省的粮食大丰收。 此刻的调车作业，如同一场在钢铁丛林间进行的精密"绣花"，空车皮需要穿针引线般精准送达指定装卸点；满载秋粮的重车，则必须按目的地、品类被巧妙 编排组合，最终连接成一条条蓄势待发的"粮龙"。 调车工作既繁重又细致，22名车站职工三班 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company is a leading player in domestic container shipping, with strong profitability and a robust dividend policy. It operates a fleet of 49 vessels with a total capacity of 2.5019 million deadweight tons, including 41 container ships with a capacity of 132,200 TEU. The company's return on equity (ROE) reached 16.86% in 2024, ranking third in the shipping sector [5][18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Container Shipping - The company is a leader in domestic container logistics, providing comprehensive logistics services that extend from shipping to land transport. Its core business is supported by a diverse cargo structure, with key cargo types such as paper products, steel, and food each accounting for around 7% of the total [5][7][30][32]. 2. Foreign Trade Chartering - The foreign trade container shipping chartering market has seen increased demand following the Red Sea crisis in December 2023. The company’s fleet aligns well with the market demand for small to medium-sized vessels, and the structure of new contracts is improving, with longer terms and higher rental rates compared to 2024 [6][62][68]. 3. Cash Flow and Dividend Capability - The company plans to distribute 60% of its cumulative distributable profits in cash over the next three years. Historical dividend payout ratios are high, reaching 88% and 90% for 2023 and 2024, respectively [6][8]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.145 billion yuan in 2025, with revenue projections of 10.770 billion yuan. The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.02 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.95 [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Yangtze River Express" from Jiujiang marks a significant expansion of the rail-water intermodal transport system, enhancing the logistics capabilities for bulk commodity transportation in the central Yangtze River region [1] Group 1: Transportation Development - The "Yangtze River Express" is designed to improve the transportation capacity of the Yangtze River Golden Waterway, successfully extending its service to Jiangxi province after covering Sichuan, Hubei, and Hunan [1] - The intermodal transport system combines rail and water transport, significantly reducing transportation time for goods, such as corn, from 25 days to 10-12 days [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The new transport model shifts from traditional bulk transport to a standardized containerized approach, utilizing 50 standard containers for the shipment of corn [1] - This transition to a "bulk to container" transport model enhances efficiency by reducing loading and unloading times and minimizing loss rates during transportation [1]

Core Insights - The launch of a new railway cold chain container transportation model in Shanxi Province marks a significant advancement for the efficient and stable export of agricultural products in the region [1][2] - The first shipment involved 232 tons of fresh corn, which is a critical ingredient for high-end corn ham sausages, requiring strict temperature control throughout the journey [1] - The use of advanced unmanned 40-foot refrigerated container trains allows for precise temperature control between -30°C and 30°C, ensuring product quality during transport [1][2] Group 1 - The successful transportation of 500 tons of high-quality corn from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia demonstrates the capability of the new cold chain logistics system [1] - The implementation of a "green channel" strategy by the railway department prioritizes efficiency, ensuring faster delivery times for perishable goods [2] - The cold chain container transportation system is characterized by all-weather operation, long-distance capability, large volume, stable timeliness, and cost-effectiveness [2] Group 2 - This initiative aligns with national strategies such as "shifting from road to rail" and "consolidating scattered shipments," enhancing the quality assurance of fresh products in long-distance supply chains [2] - The new logistics model provides robust support for Shanxi's high-quality agricultural products to reach national and international markets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Transport, National Railway Administration, and China National Railway Group have issued an action plan for the deep integration of container rail-water intermodal transport from 2025 to 2027, emphasizing the promotion of intermodal operation and collaboration among transportation enterprises [1] Group 1: Intermodal Operation Enhancement - The plan aims to strengthen the coordination of port-rail operations at qualified ports like Qingdao, supporting integrated management of railway and port operations [1] - It encourages the use of digital and intelligent methods to achieve rapid customs clearance and efficient loading and unloading, thereby reducing "short-distance" transport [1] - The quality and efficiency of intermodal products will be enhanced, with a focus on quality assessment of intermodal trains [1] Group 2: Development of Intermodal Products - The action plan includes the establishment of fixed train routes and the promotion of passenger train-like operations to create a "train + ship" intermodal network [1] - By 2027, the goal is to have a nationwide network of container rail-water intermodal fast lines covering major intermodal ports [1] - Key coastal regions and the Yangtze River trunk line will cultivate premium long-distance and short-distance intermodal products [1] Group 3: Support for "Road to Rail" and "Bulk to Container" Transport - The plan promotes collaboration between various ports and railways to expand the transportation of goods such as grain, fertilizers, and cement through "road to rail" initiatives [1] - It encourages innovation in unloading operations and facilities at inland stations and qualified factories to increase the scale of "bulk to container" transport [1] - The development of automobile transport via intermodal rail-water services is also highlighted [1] Group 4: Optimization of International Intermodal Connections - Ports like Dalian, Tianjin, and Guangzhou are tasked with enhancing the integration of sea routes with international rail services such as the China-Europe Railway Express [1] - The plan aims to improve customs inspection processes and enhance the timeliness of international container rail-water intermodal transport [1]

Summary of Zhonggu Logistics Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhonggu Logistics - **Industry**: Domestic Container Shipping Key Points and Arguments Financial Improvement - Zhonggu Logistics improved its financial condition by increasing its free capacity to 74% and optimizing its fleet structure, with 83% of its vessels being less than 10 years old [2][3][4] Domestic Container Shipping Growth - The domestic container shipping sector benefits from improved domestic demand and the economic efficiency of water transport, particularly in the transportation of goods related to the domestic circulation economy, such as grain and coal [2][4] - The current share of water transport in total freight volume in China is only 17%, significantly lower than road transport at 72%. However, with policy support for multimodal transport and containerization, the share of water transport is expected to increase [2][5][6] Supply Chain Advantages - Zhonggu Logistics has ordered 18 large vessels to lock in low-cost capacity, contributing to an industry supply growth rate of 17%. The company also constructed 4,600 TEU new container ships for the foreign trade market, enhancing its market competitiveness [2][7] Characteristics of Domestic Container Shipping - The domestic container shipping industry is characterized by precision and high efficiency, with scheduled services reducing delivery time risks and container transport minimizing storage costs and cargo damage [2][8] Policy Support for Multimodal Transport - National policies actively promote multimodal transport and containerization, which can significantly enhance the efficiency of freight transport. A 1% increase in coastal waterway cargo share can lead to a 6% increase in domestic container shipping volume, while a 1% increase in containerization can boost volume by 4% [2][10] External Market Strategy - Zhonggu Logistics is directing some capacity to the foreign trade market due to high rental rates resulting from events like the Red Sea incident and the US trade war. The company anticipates that this strategy will yield better economic benefits [2][11] Cost Structure and Profitability - The historical lowest freight rate on the international Europe line is around $500, while the operating cost for Zhonggu's vessels is approximately $400-$450 per container. This indicates that the company can maintain profitability even with fluctuations in international freight rates [2][12] Profit Growth Expectations - For 2025, Zhonggu Logistics expects profit growth to exceed 10%, with a projected dividend yield of over 6% based on a commitment to a minimum 60% payout ratio [2][14] Performance in Domestic Market - The domestic container shipping business has shown resilience, with freight rates increasing since the beginning of the year, supported by favorable oil prices and capacity adjustments [2][15] Additional Important Insights - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a historical dividend payout ratio of 88% and 90% in the past two years, indicating a robust approach to capital allocation [2][13]

Group 1 - The overall safety situation of China's railway has continued to improve, with a 18% year-on-year decrease in railway traffic accident fatalities in 2024, and no major or particularly major accidents reported throughout the year [1][2] - The number of significant railway accidents remained stable at 2 in 2024, consistent with 2023, while the total number of significant accidents from 2019 to 2023 varied significantly [1][2] - The China National Railway Group reported a 26.7% year-on-year decrease in fatalities, indicating that the safety situation under its management is better than the national average [1] Group 2 - The railway sector has not experienced major accidents for several consecutive years, marking the safest period in railway history, attributed to improved safety laws, responsibility systems, and infrastructure upgrades [2] - Future safety initiatives will focus on closing unprotected crossings, enhancing warning systems, and conducting emergency drills to reduce human error risks [2] - By the end of 2024, the total number of locomotives in the national railway system is projected to be 22,500, with a mix of diesel and electric locomotives [2] Group 3 - In 2024, the total operating mileage of the national railway reached 162,000 kilometers, with 48,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, a 60.8% double-track rate, and a 76.2% electrification rate [3] - The total freight volume for the national railway was 5.175 billion tons, reflecting a 2.8% year-on-year increase, with specific commodities showing varied growth rates [3] - The growth in container transport is primarily driven by the shift from bulk to containerized transport, contributing significantly to the increase in railway container transport volumes [3][4] Group 4 - The railway sector is transitioning from traditional transport roles to more flexible logistics services, with the opening of multiple intermodal transport routes and significant growth in container transport volumes [4] - As of April 2025, the railway container transport volume has increased by 17% year-on-year, with a stable average growth rate of over 15% in recent years [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in domestic container logistics, with a strong synergy between domestic and foreign trade, enhancing its profit resilience. The report highlights the potential for significant upward movement in the domestic shipping market, supported by policy-driven infrastructure investment and increased consumer demand [10][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Zhonggu Logistics, is one of the earliest enterprises in China specializing in domestic container shipping, providing comprehensive logistics services through a multi-modal transport network [15][7]. As of December 31, 2024, the company operates 111 vessels with a total capacity of 213,000 TEU, ranking second nationally in container fleet size [18][7]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue growth from container logistics services, with expected revenues of 12,031 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 6.86% [9]. The projected net profit for 2025 is 1,984 million RMB, with a growth rate of 8.08% [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The domestic container shipping market is currently at a historical low, with significant potential for recovery. The report notes that demand for shipping services is expected to rise due to increased infrastructure investment and consumer spending [10][6]. The foreign trade leasing market is also anticipated to remain robust, particularly in the Asian regional market, driven by trade agreements and shifts in supply chains [10][6]. Profitability and Dividend Policy - The company exhibits strong cash flow and a high dividend payout ratio, with a dividend rate reaching 90.39% in 2024, amounting to 1,659 million RMB [48][57]. The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain profitability even during periods of market pressure, showcasing its operational flexibility [10][6]. Investment Outlook - The report projects that the company's net profit will continue to grow steadily, with estimates of 1,984 million RMB for 2025, 2,098 million RMB for 2026, and 2,202 million RMB for 2027, indicating a stable growth trajectory [8][6]. The anticipated price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 10.37, 9.81, and 9.35, respectively, suggesting attractive valuation levels [8][6].

Group 1: Railway Freight Transport - In the first four months, national railway freight volume reached 1.681 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.00%, with April's volume at 428 million tons, up 4.91% [1] - The China National Railway Group reported a freight volume of 1.298 billion tons in the same period, growing by 3.51%, with April's volume at 328 million tons, increasing by 5.12% [1] - Daily loading of national railways averaged 180,000 cars, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with coal transport reaching 672 million tons, including 464 million tons of electricity coal [1] Group 2: Logistics and Intermodal Transport - The railway sector is focusing on logistics total package services, promoting the shift of bulk cargo transport from road to rail, with 114 new logistics contracts signed in April, representing a 159% increase [1] - The "95306" platform allows for the acceptance of full logistics services for intermodal transport, facilitating a single settlement for rail and water transport fees [2] - The Daqin Railway's cargo transport volume showed signs of recovery, with a total of 123 million tons transported in the first four months, a decrease of 4.05%, but April saw a 0.99% increase [2] Group 3: Cross-Border Transport - In the first four months, the China-Europe Railway Express operated 6,042 trains, a decrease of 2.3%, but the decline rate is narrowing compared to the previous quarter [2] - The Central Asia Railway Express operated 4,725 trains, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, while the China-Laos Railway sent 197,600 tons of cross-border goods, up 7.6% [3] Group 4: Passenger Transport - National railway passenger volume reached 1.456 billion people in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 5.90%, with April's volume at 382 million, up 6.01% [3] - Daily passenger train operations averaged 11,200 trains in April, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [3] - Cross-border passenger transport saw significant growth, with the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed rail sending 10.172 million cross-border passengers, up 14.7% [3]

Group 1 - In the first quarter of this year, China Railway Nanning Bureau Group Co., Ltd. completed cargo dispatch of 35.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [1] - Container shipments reached 644,000 TEUs, totaling 17.73 million tons, with the container volume accounting for 50.3% of total cargo dispatch [1] - The high proportion of container transport in Guangxi reflects the accelerated economic and industrial transformation in the region, highlighting the effectiveness of regional development and demand expansion [1] Group 2 - The aluminum industry is a key sector in Baise, with significant transportation cost savings achieved through the use of rail containers, including a reduction of 4 yuan per ton compared to road transport, leading to annual savings of 28 million yuan for aluminum ore and 5 million yuan for coal [2] - The Nanning Bureau has successfully launched a "one ticket" iron-sea intermodal transport project, enhancing the logistics network for Guangxi products and establishing six sugar iron-sea fast lines to the Beibu Gulf Port [2] - In the first quarter, the Western Land-Sea New Corridor sent 345,000 TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 68.2%, with expectations to exceed 1 million TEUs for the year [2] Group 3 - The Nanning Bureau plans to adapt to industrial transformation and regional economic development by focusing on the development of aluminum ore and coal, promoting the shift from bulk to container transport [3] - The bureau aims to utilize market pricing mechanisms to organize fast logistics trains covering Guangxi, Guangdong, and Chongqing, creating a logistics network that connects the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Southwest Economic Circle [3]