证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-09-29 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《出口韧性、"反内卷"，引领 PPI 边际改善》 - 2025.08.25 宏观研究 PPI 改善动能放缓与出口压力下的经济韧性 核心观点 从高频数据来看，工业生产或相对平稳，工业需求有所分化，或 因 8 月和 9 月暴雨等极端天气影响，水利防护工程建设带动沥青需求 回升，但有效需求不足尚未显著改善，螺纹钢库存上升，反制开工率 回落，房地产销售环比回暖，入境流量加快转换为消费增量，海上丝 路指数和我国港口集装箱运价指数显示，出口或存在边际放缓压力， 整体来看，9 月经济运行或相对平稳。从高频数据，有几点边际变化 值得关注： 一是短期 PPI 增速仍有望持续回升，支撑名义增速边际改善，但 PPI 回升动能边际放缓。7 月以来，"反内卷"政策持续升温，相关 行业价格有所回升，PPI 同比增速跌幅收窄。值得注意 ...

Group 1 - The fourth Pazhou Algorithm Competition Empowerment Conference was held in Guangzhou, China, attracting 8,131 teams from over 30 countries, with 183 teams reaching the finals and 82 teams winning awards [1] - The competition focused on addressing pain points in enterprise development, driving algorithm innovation and practical application through real-world scenarios [1] - A dual evaluation mechanism of "technology + application" was adopted, emphasizing both algorithm innovation and performance, as well as the applicability and potential for implementation in actual business [1] Group 2 - The event was co-hosted by the Guangzhou Municipal Government and the China Artificial Intelligence Society, highlighting the importance of collaboration in advancing AI technology [1] - During the competition, thematic sub-forums were held on topics such as embodied intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, data industry, and cutting-edge large model technologies [1]

Market Performance - A-shares showed mixed performance from September 15 to September 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.3% to 3820.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14% to 13070.86 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34% to 3091 points [2][3] - Over 32% of stocks in the A-share market experienced gains during the week, with 122 stocks rising over 15% and 16 stocks declining more than 15% [2] International Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices rose on September 19, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.37% to 46315.27 points, the S&P 500 up 0.49% to 6664.36 points, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.72% to 22631.48 points [3][5] - In contrast, European stock indices fell on the same day, with the FTSE 100 down 0.12%, the CAC 40 down 0.01%, and the DAX down 0.15% [4] Oil Prices - International oil prices decreased on September 19, with WTI crude oil down 1.4% to $62.68 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.13% to $66.68 per barrel [4] Industry Developments - The Chinese government is set to launch a "Cultural and Tourism Consumption Month" with over 330 million yuan in subsidies to boost tourism during the National Day holiday [6] - Several express delivery companies in Shanghai will raise their collection prices starting September 22, primarily targeting low-priced e-commerce shipments [7] - Huawei has initiated the "Tian Gong Plan," committing 1 billion yuan to support the HarmonyOS AI ecosystem [8] Logistics and Supply Chain - China's pharmaceutical logistics costs exceeded 50 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with cold chain logistics costs alone surpassing 13.5 billion yuan [9] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 36.85 billion HKD over the week, marking 18 consecutive weeks of inflows, with notable trading activity in Alibaba and other major stocks [9] Regulatory and Policy Updates - The Chinese government is accelerating the establishment of national standards for pre-prepared dishes to enhance consumer rights [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of investing in data resources and the development of high-quality data sets to support the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [8]

Group 1 - The Beijing Data Group was officially established during the 2025 Service Trade Fair, with a registered capital of 3 billion and plans to increase it to 6 billion [1] - The total assets of the Beijing Data Group amount to 13.6 billion, and it is based on six companies under the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1] - The group will focus on data infrastructure construction, data resource development and utilization, data circulation and trading, and data industry ecosystem development [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Province has announced the first batch of data industry agglomeration areas, with 13 parks selected, highlighting Changsha's leading position in the province's data industry development and contributing to the "Digital Changsha" initiative [1] Group 1: Overview of Selected Parks - Five parks in Changsha have been selected, accounting for nearly 40% of the total, showcasing the city's strong data industry foundation and innovation capabilities [1][2] - The selected parks are expected to enter a new phase of "clustered, high-quality" development [1] Group 2: Individual Park Highlights - Xiangjiang New Area leverages its dense academic and research resources to form ten specialized industrial chains, integrating production, learning, research, and application [3] - Malanshan Video Cultural and Creative Industry Park focuses on "culture + technology," excelling in ultra-high-definition video, digital publishing, and animation games, setting industry benchmarks [4] - Changsha Economic Development Zone builds on its engineering machinery and automotive manufacturing base, utilizing the province's first "5G + Industrial Internet" pilot area to enhance data collaboration and digital transformation [5] - Tianxin Economic Development Zone aims to create a central data market hub, gathering a trading platform, two computing power centers, eight data centers, and over 6,000 related enterprises, forming a comprehensive digital economy ecosystem [6] - Wangcheng Economic Development Zone focuses on smart terminal industries, leveraging the Zengtong Cloud Valley data center to enhance data collection, computing support, and application scenarios [7] Group 3: Future Development Plans - Changsha plans to leverage the establishment of data industry agglomeration areas to enhance industrial planning, data supply, talent cultivation, and scenario openness [7] - The city aims to strengthen collaboration among the parks, promote cross-park and cross-field data flow, and build the "Changsha Data Industry Cluster" brand [7] - The initiative is expected to accelerate the integration of digital economy and real economy, positioning data as a key driver for high-quality urban development [7]

Group 1 - Guangdong Province has launched a pilot program for future community construction, focusing on eight major scenarios including governance, public space, and community services [4][20][21] - The program aims to enhance community environment, services, and governance, transforming communities into service centers and activity hubs [22][23] - A technical guideline has been issued to standardize construction, emphasizing the use of advanced technologies such as AI, blockchain, and big data [25][26][27] Group 2 - The Guangdong Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting to discuss the high-quality development of state-owned enterprises, emphasizing the need for effective investment and modernization of industrial systems [30][32][34] - Key industries highlighted for development include artificial intelligence, marine ranching, and biomedicine, with a focus on enhancing corporate governance and market-oriented reforms [36][38] Group 3 - The "Media+" initiative in Zhaoqing aims to enhance the poultry industry, specifically the Xinghua chicken, by establishing a new development model that integrates standards, branding, and technology [81][84][85] - The initiative targets a comprehensive standard system and significant brand value enhancement by 2027, with a current industry value exceeding 2 billion [89][90] Group 4 - The Yangxi County organized a training program to improve the "Hundred Thousand Project," focusing on typical town and village construction as a key strategy for rural revitalization [95][99][100] - The training included discussions on the evaluation methods for typical towns and villages, aiming to enhance rural industry development [107][109] Group 5 - The Yuan Cheng District has implemented a reform in government services, achieving 100% coverage of a three-tier service system and reducing approval times by an average of 65% [130][132] - The district has integrated multiple departments into a single service center, significantly increasing the number of services available to the public [133][134]

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Big Data Industry Expo concluded on August 30 in Guiyang, focusing on data industry, computing power industry, and artificial intelligence [1] - The expo attracted investments totaling 46.336 billion yuan, with plans for 100 digital economy projects [1] - Over 16,000 registered guests attended, including 168 foreign guests from 31 countries and regions [1] Group 2 - A total of 375 companies participated in the expo, with 30 foreign exhibitors showcasing over 1,300 new products, technologies, and solutions [1] - The event hosted 89 activities, with more than 55,000 attendees and the release of 90 theoretical reports, industry standards, typical cases, and technological achievements [1] - The competition featured 2,154 teams, with over 2 million viewers participating online and offline [1]

Group 1 - The Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission has announced support for six major railway projects, including the Changsha to Jiujiang high-speed railway, which is crucial for establishing a "cross" high-speed rail hub in Changsha [1][2] - The Changsha to Jiujiang high-speed railway is part of a larger network aimed at enhancing connectivity between the Yangtze River Delta and the central and southern regions of China, addressing existing gaps in high-speed rail coverage [2][3] - The Changsha West to Hukun high-speed railway connection line is expected to fill the southwest high-speed rail gap, further solidifying Changsha's position as a key transportation hub [2][3] Group 2 - The construction of the Changsha to Jiujiang high-speed railway has been advocated by representatives from Hunan province during the National People's Congress for several years, emphasizing its importance for regional economic development [3] - The proposed railway is seen as a vital link for the Yangtze River Economic Belt, aiming to enhance transportation efficiency and support national strategies for regional economic coordination [3] - Hunan's representatives are actively seeking to include the Changsha to Jiujiang high-speed railway in the national railway development plan, highlighting its significance for future infrastructure development [3]

Economic Overview - China's economy is showing a steady and positive trend, with various recent data indicating ongoing development [1] Logistics Sector - The total social logistics volume in China exceeded 200 trillion yuan in the first seven months, reaching 201.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [4] - The logistics demand in high-end manufacturing and green low-carbon sectors is growing robustly, with logistics for units and household goods increasing by 6.2% year-on-year [4] - The logistics industry generated a total revenue of 8.2 trillion yuan in the first seven months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [13] - The growth momentum in the logistics sector is notably stronger in the central and western regions, with the western region's business volume index reaching 52.3% and the central region at 50.9%, both above the national average [13][15] E-commerce and Online Retail - E-commerce logistics is experiencing diversified development, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods by 1.5 percentage points [15] International Logistics - International logistics is emerging as a new growth point, with cargo and mail transport volume on international routes reaching 38.8 million tons in the first seven months, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [17] Data Industry - The scale of China's data industry has surpassed 5.8 trillion yuan, with an expected annual growth rate of over 15% from 2025 to 2030 [10] - The data industry shows a tiered distribution, with the eastern region accounting for nearly 70% of the total industry scale, while the central and western regions account for 17.2% and 13.1%, respectively [20] - The Yangtze River Delta region exhibits significant industry clustering, with over 100,000 data enterprises and a scale accounting for 22.6% of the national total [20]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced wide fluctuations and a strong rebound on August 28, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3843.6 points, up 1.14%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 12571.37 points, up 2.25% [1][4] - The STAR 50 index rose by 7.23%, and the ChiNext index increased by 3.82%. The total trading volume of the A-share market was 300.09 billion yuan, showing a decrease compared to the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 first-level industries of CITIC, 22 industries declined, with significant gains in communication, electronics, and comprehensive finance, while coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery saw the largest declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - On August 28, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.16%, the S&P 500 up 0.32%, and the Nasdaq up 0.53%. Notably, Google rose over 2% [2][4] - The U.S. technology giants index increased by 0.47%, with significant gains from companies like Cisco and Salesforce, which rose over 1% [2][4] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with Ctrip Group rising nearly 15% and Newegg falling over 18% [2][4] Key News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued opinions on promoting high-quality urban development, aiming for significant progress in modern urban construction by 2030 [3][11] - The Central Education Working Group released an action plan for optimizing the adjustment of higher education disciplines and majors from 2025 to 2027, focusing on establishing a coordinated mechanism and improving the talent supply-demand matching system [3][12] - The 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee was held in Ottawa, focusing on improving bilateral economic relations and addressing trade concerns [3][13][14] - The "2025 China Top 500 Private Enterprises" list was released, with JD Group, Alibaba, and Hengli Group ranking in the top three, and the total revenue of these enterprises reaching 43.05 trillion yuan [3][16]