长三角加快现代化都市圈建设是"十五五"的重中之重 国家层面推进都市圈同城化发展的战略部署，已经转化为长三角6大都市圈有针对、可操作、能落地的 行动举措。 近期，由长三角区域合作办公室会同沪苏浙皖三省一市发改委，共同编制的《建立健全都市圈同城化发 展体制机制提升长三角城市群一体化发展水平行动方案》（下称《行动方案》），已正式印发。 10月9日举办的推动长三角都市圈同城化发展研讨会上，上海市政府副秘书长、市发展改革委主任、长 三角区域合作办公室主任顾军表示，推动都市圈同城化发展是一项久久为功的系统工程，虽然长三角在 都市圈建设上已经开展了不少探索实践，也有了一定基础，但和国际对标、与战略目标相比，还有很多 工作要做。 面向2035，长三角加快现代化都市圈建设将是"十五五"发展的重中之重。也因此，这场以"迈向形神兼 备的现代化都市圈"为主题的研讨会，目的是探索破解影响都市圈更多释放红利的制约因素，使空间 的"形"和功能的"神"深度融合，推动长三角都市圈建设成为引领区域增长、参与全球竞合的重要空间单 元，更好支撑长三角世界级城市群建设。 都市圈同城化难题待解 随着区域一体化进程加速，长三角已经坐拥六大都市圈——上海大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on investment opportunities in the semiconductor and large aircraft sectors due to the increasing competitiveness of China's technology industry [1][2]. Investment Framework - The investment framework consists of four dimensions: cycle, growth, theme, and market style, which helps in selecting industries and stocks from an alpha perspective [1]. - The cycle dimension serves as the foundation, while the growth dimension addresses investment space. The theme and market style dimensions enhance investment efficiency [1]. Investment Strategy - Left-side positioning should not be blind bottom-fishing; it requires balancing time cost and return space, focusing on short-term profit improvement indicators [2]. - The semiconductor industry is highlighted for its growth potential due to domestic substitution, offering greater return space compared to traditional cyclical industries [2]. Specific Investment Directions - The semiconductor sector is favored due to the combination of cycle turning points and domestic substitution, along with AI empowerment opening new opportunities [3]. - The large aircraft industry is expected to enter a performance release phase as domestic production accelerates and delivery volumes increase [3]. - The innovative drug sector is gaining attention as international pharmaceutical companies frequently acquire rights to domestic new drugs, indicating the rising global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs [3]. - Cyclical industries and certain consumer sectors are anticipated to reach turning points as policies gradually take effect [4].

Group 1 - The core industrial value added in Xi'an increased by 11% year-on-year from January to July, outperforming the national and provincial averages by 4.7 and 2.1 percentage points respectively, ranking second among 15 sub-provincial cities [1] - Key industrial chains, including large aircraft, photovoltaic, passenger vehicles, and smart connected vehicles, are driving industrial growth, with total output value of key industrial chains growing by 13.8% and accounting for 86.2% of the city's total industrial output [1] - The photovoltaic and passenger vehicle industries showed significant growth rates of 65.2% and 33.1% respectively [1] Group 2 - Xi'an Yanliang National Aviation High-tech Industry Base has made notable progress in the large aircraft industry chain, establishing a new regional cooperation model with COMAC and assisting 21 enterprises to enter the supply chain [2] - The aviation industry in Yanliang is projected to exceed 40 billion yuan in total output value by 2024, aiming to become a core area for the national large aircraft industry [2] - Xi'an Economic Development Zone achieved an industrial output value of 50.65 billion yuan in the energy oil and gas industry, marking a 29% year-on-year increase, and is developing an energy oil and gas industrial park [2] Group 3 - The Xi'an Industrial and Information Technology Bureau is promoting small and medium-sized enterprises' integration into large enterprises' industrial chains through a "three lists" mechanism, having collected over 4,000 resource demands [3] - Future plans include accelerating the implementation of proposals, innovation breakthroughs, project transformations, and spatial expansions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent release of the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Urban Development" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, highlighting the transition of urbanization in China from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on improving existing urban areas rather than expanding them [3]. Group 1: Urban Development Strategy - The "Opinions" emphasize the need to promote the integration of urban clusters and the coordinated development of metropolitan areas, aiming to create a modern urban system with a reasonable layout [5][6]. - Support is given to major urban clusters like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area to become world-class urban clusters, enhancing regional coordination and industrial collaboration [5][6]. - The article outlines the importance of metropolitan areas, which are led by a central city, in driving high-quality industrial development through innovation and labor force integration [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article identifies urban clusters and metropolitan areas as key spaces for increasing investment, particularly in rail transit projects, with significant growth potential in high-speed rail and intercity rail construction [7]. - Recent approvals for new high-speed rail projects, such as the Shanghai-Hangzhou line with an investment of approximately 67.1 billion yuan, indicate ongoing infrastructure development [7]. - The article highlights the role of super-large cities in enhancing comprehensive competitiveness and the need for these cities to innovate and optimize their core functions while controlling their scale [7]. Group 3: Small and Medium Cities - The "Opinions" call for improving the capacity of small and medium-sized cities and county towns, focusing on optimizing infrastructure and public services based on population trends [11]. - The article notes that some small cities and counties have attracted significant populations due to their strong economic performance, with examples of counties achieving GDPs exceeding 1 billion yuan [11][12]. - The development of "super towns" and "super counties" is highlighted, with several towns in Guangdong and Jiangsu having populations exceeding 300,000, showcasing the potential for economic growth in these areas [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China is transitioning from a rapid urbanization phase to a stable development phase, focusing on improving existing urban areas rather than large-scale expansion [1] - The "Opinions" released by the Central Committee and the State Council outline a blueprint for future urban development in China, emphasizing high-quality urban growth [1][2] - The development of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas is prioritized, with a focus on enhancing the competitiveness of mega cities and promoting coordinated regional development [2][4] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations as platforms for international competition, where central cities drive innovation and surrounding areas support manufacturing [3][6] - The Yangtze River Delta region is cited as an example of successful industrial clustering, with significant advancements in sectors like aerospace and biotechnology, showcasing a collaborative innovation model [3] - The article notes that the domestic manufacturing rate for large aircraft has increased from 10% to 60% due to effective collaboration within the Yangtze River Delta [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the potential for investment in urban infrastructure, particularly in rail transport, with new high-speed rail projects being approved, such as the Shanghai-Hangzhou line [4] - The "Opinions" stress the need to enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of mega cities, advocating for the optimization of core functions and the control of urban scale [4][6] - The article mentions the classification of cities based on permanent resident population, identifying super cities and mega cities, which are crucial for economic development [5][6] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the need to improve the capacity of small and medium-sized cities and county towns, advocating for infrastructure optimization and public service enhancement [7] - It highlights the economic disparities between small and large counties, with some small counties achieving significant economic growth through industrial clusters [7][9] - The article notes that as of 2024, the number of counties with a GDP exceeding 1 billion yuan has increased, indicating a trend of economic growth in smaller regions [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial security is emphasized as a core component of economic security, with a focus on enhancing resilience, technological self-reliance, and high-level openness to improve industrial development quality [1] Group 1: Industrial Scale Expansion - Steady expansion of industrial scale is crucial for industrial security, serving as a stabilizing factor during the transition from middle-income to high-income status [2] - China's manufacturing sector has maintained the largest global scale for 15 consecutive years, showcasing unique advantages in scale and system [2] - Achievements in various sectors, such as high-speed trains and advanced manufacturing, are linked to these scale and system advantages [2] Group 2: Industrial Quality Upgrade - Promoting quality upgrades in industries is essential to avoid low-level repetitive investments that can harm industrial security [3] - Digital transformation is highlighted as a key area, with Shenzhen's manufacturing value added projected to account for about one-third of its GDP in 2024 [3] - The focus on green low-carbon development and advanced industrial clusters is aimed at enhancing industrial safety and creating new growth sectors [3] Group 3: Enhancing Industrial Resilience - Strengthening industrial resilience is necessary for building a modern industrial system and ensuring industrial security [4] - Despite improvements, there are still vulnerabilities in the industrial chain that need to be addressed through technological advancements and diversified supply systems [4] - Monitoring and early warning systems for various risks are essential for enhancing governance resilience [4] Group 4: Expanding High-Level Openness - Expanding high-level openness is vital for improving industrial development quality in the context of deepening economic globalization [5] - China's foreign investment and global capacity layout have accelerated, particularly in relation to the Belt and Road Initiative [5] - Active engagement with international high-standard trade rules and international industrial cooperation is necessary for building a new type of collaborative framework [5]

Core Viewpoint - In July, China's industrial production remained stable overall, with most industries and products experiencing growth, supported by the equipment manufacturing sector, indicating steady progress in high-quality industrial economic development [1] Industry Performance - Among the 41 major industrial categories, 35 reported year-on-year growth in added value, resulting in a growth coverage of 85.4%. The electronics, electrical machinery, and automotive industries contributed 36.4% to the growth of large-scale industries [3] - The railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace industries saw a year-on-year increase of 13.7% in added value, driven by major national projects. The shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing industry experienced a significant growth of 29.7%, while the production of railway locomotives surged by 150% [5] New Product Development - New productive forces are actively developing, expanding new growth points. High-end products such as analog chips, 3D printing equipment, and industrial control computers and systems saw production increases of 29.8%, 24.2%, and 21.4%, respectively. The robotics industry is thriving, with production of robot reducers, industrial robots, and service robots growing by 48%, 24%, and 12.8% respectively [7]

Core Viewpoint - China's manufacturing industry has significantly enhanced its comprehensive strength and international influence during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, maintaining its position as the world's largest manufacturing nation for 15 consecutive years, with an annual manufacturing value added exceeding 30 trillion yuan [2]. Group 1: Manufacturing Strength - China's manufacturing industry has ranked first globally in the production of over 200 major industrial products [2]. - The country has the most complete industrial categories and systems in the world, leveraging its existing foundation to reshape new advantages and unleash new momentum in manufacturing [2]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The number of high-tech enterprises reached 463,000 in 2024, 1.7 times that of 2020, with over 570 industrial enterprises entering the global R&D investment top 2500, accounting for nearly one-fourth [4]. - Major landmark achievements in technology, such as 5G communication equipment and large LNG ships, are continuously emerging, showcasing China's leading position globally [4][5]. - The annual production of integrated circuits increased by 72.6% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," adding approximately 190 billion pieces [5]. Group 3: Industrial Structure Optimization - The proportion of value added from high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing has increased, with high-tech manufacturing accounting for 16.3% in 2024, up from 15.1% in 2020 [6]. - The density of industrial robots has risen from 246 units per 10,000 people in 2020 to 470 in 2023, indicating a trend towards greater automation [6]. Group 4: Green Transformation - By 2024, there are 6,430 national-level green factories, contributing to approximately 20% of the total manufacturing output value [7]. - The sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 12.866 million units in 2024, which is 9.4 times that of 2020 [7]. Group 5: Emerging Industries - New emerging industries, represented by new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, have seen exports surpassing 100 billion yuan [8]. - The technology level and market competitiveness in fields such as low-altitude economy, biomedicine, and high-end equipment have significantly improved [8].

Core Viewpoint - China's manufacturing industry has significantly enhanced its comprehensive strength and international influence during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, maintaining its position as the world's largest manufacturing country for 15 consecutive years, with an annual manufacturing value added exceeding 30 trillion yuan [2]. Group 1: Manufacturing Strength - China's manufacturing industry has maintained its global leadership, producing over 200 major industrial products with the highest output in the world [2]. - The country has the most complete industrial categories and systems globally, leveraging its existing foundation to reshape new advantages and unleash new momentum in manufacturing [2]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The number of high-tech enterprises reached 463,000 in 2024, 1.7 times that of 2020, with over 570 industrial companies entering the global R&D investment top 2,500, accounting for nearly one-fourth [4]. - Significant technological achievements include advancements in 5G communication equipment, high-speed trains, photovoltaic equipment, large aircraft, and large LNG ships, all at the world-leading level [4][5]. - The annual output of integrated circuits increased by 72.6% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," adding approximately 190 billion units [5]. Group 3: Industrial Structure Optimization - The proportion of value added from high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing has increased, with high-tech manufacturing accounting for 16.3% in 2024, up from 15.1% in 2020 [6]. - The density of industrial robots has risen significantly, from 246 units per 10,000 people in 2020 to 470 in 2023 [6]. Group 4: Green Transformation - By 2024, there were 6,430 national-level green factories, contributing to about 20% of the total manufacturing output value [7]. - New energy vehicle sales reached 12.866 million units in 2024, a 9.4-fold increase from 2020 [7]. Group 5: Emerging Industries - Emerging industries, represented by new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, have become new engines of economic growth, with exports surpassing 100 billion yuan [8]. - The technology level and market competitiveness in low-altitude economy, biomedicine, and high-end equipment sectors have significantly improved [8].

数据来源：wind 华福证券研究所 方正富邦基金经理吴昊认为，抛开短期情绪扰动，军工行业的长期逻辑依然清晰。2023年以来，军工行 业基本面受到人事调整等因素影响，订单延后，行业景气度下滑。而在当下时点，"十四五"计划进入最 后一年，军工行业扰动因素已基本消除，下游需求呈恢复性增长，同时2027年建设目标迫在眉睫，中长 期目标也对行业发展提供明确指引：2035年基本实现国防和军队现代化，2050年把人民军队全面建成世 界一流军队。伴随需求恢复，产能结构逐步优化，国防军工板块有望得到大幅改善，安全边际高，具备 长期成长确定性。优先关注新域新质领域，如无人机、机器狗、大飞机、低空经济、商业航天等方向。 要想搞清楚这波军工板块走势的可持续性，首先要找到军工板块大涨的核心原因，2021年之后，军工板 块的营业收入和利润增速连年下滑，在基本面拖累下，军工板块的走势乏善可陈，不过从近期军工股发 布的业绩中报来看，军工板块的业绩拐点已到，这也是此轮板块大涨的内生动力。 在业绩表现方面，根据中邮证券统计，120家军工行业上市公司中37家披露的2025H1业绩预告。按预告 业绩的中值来看，14家上市公司预告业绩为正且实现同比增 ...