Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market uncertainty for copper remains high, with pre - holiday stocking leading to price fluctuations. Aluminum and alumina show that the market is in a state of over - supply, and the performance of apparent consumption is not as expected. Zinc is suggested to be short - sold on rebounds. Lead shows signs of a phased improvement in fundamentals but faces pressure from imported ingots. Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak trend. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and a "high - selling and low - buying" trading style is recommended. Lithium carbonate is in a state of price oscillation under the influence of various factors. Industrial silicon has an over - supply situation, and polysilicon may face callback pressure [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment**: The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut and the situation of precious metals. There is a large price fluctuation, and the market focuses on economic indicators. The overall uncertainty is high [1]. - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable. Although the peak - season signal is not obvious, the market enters the pre - holiday stocking period. The inventory has a small outflow, and production has decreased month - on - month. The scrap - copper enterprises are reluctant to sell, and the market pays attention to imports [1]. - **Overseas situation**: Some mines have production problems, affecting the supply [1]. - **Trend**: There is a certain boost from pre - holiday stocking, but attention should be paid to consumption indicators. It is recommended to stop losses on previous long positions and then wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity has increased, the market is in an over - supply state, and the profit still has room for compression. The support level is around 2,600 yuan [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, with mainly capacity replacement [1]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing enterprises' operating rate has a small change, and the export situation is different for different products. After the implementation of counter - tariffs, exports remain rigid [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: The aluminum ingot social inventory has increased slightly, and the aluminum rod social inventory has decreased. The spot discount has narrowed, and the processing fee has risen [1]. - **Trend**: The downstream is in the seasonal peak, but the inventory has not shown a turning point. The apparent consumption is lower than expected. The support level of Shanghai aluminum is 20,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking effect [1]. Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest - rate cut, the price has fallen. The internal and external price differences have changed, and the import ore price is not good [1]. - **Supply**: The LME inventory is low, and the domestic smelter inventory is being repaired. The supply is expected to decrease month - on - month, and the social inventory has decreased [1]. - **Consumption**: It is still the off - peak season in the peak season. Although the downstream has increased low - price purchases during the National Day holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1]. - **Trend**: Both the internal and external zinc ingot inventories are decreasing. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is recommended to take the opportunity of the pre - holiday rebound to short - sell [1]. Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is in a low - level consolidation, and the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and an increase in positions [1]. - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic primary lead supply is restricted by raw materials. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low. Imported ingots are arriving in China, restricting the upward space [1]. - **Consumption**: The terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved. The inventories of smelters have decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The fundamentals are improving, but the imported ingot supply is expected to be strong. The upper pressure level is 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: The Shanghai nickel is in a low - level shock, and the stainless steel has a slight rebound. The trading activity is low [1]. - **Macro and demand**: After the interest - rate cut, the long - position holders tend to cash out. The downstream is cautious, and the high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging. The cost support is obvious [1]. - **Supply and inventory**: The premiums of different products are different. The nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is in a weak trend and is about to start a downward trend [1]. Tin - **Market**: The internal and external prices have encountered resistance and declined, and the LME squeeze - out situation has basically ended [1]. - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and overseas raw materials is tight [1]. - **Consumption**: After the price has dropped to the support level, there is a demand for low - price purchases. The inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1]. - **Trend**: After the reduction of the internal and external position risks, the market focus turns to the domestic market. It is difficult for the price to show a trend. A "high - selling and low - buying" trading style is recommended [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price has oscillated and rebounded, and the market speculation has declined. The difference between long and short positions has decreased [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The traditional car sales season has driven the growth of material factory orders. The overall industry demand is strong. The total market inventory has decreased, and the smelter inventory has decreased while the downstream inventory has increased [1]. - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling actions are basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is under pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have shown different trends. The price of industrial silicon has broken through 9,000 yuan/ton due to cost support [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The production is expected to increase from September to October. The demand side has different situations for different industries. The overall supply is expected to be in an over - supply situation [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, including the increase in ordinary inventory and delivery inventory [1]. - **Trend**: The price is affected by the upward cost of coal and the expectation of eliminating backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price has oscillated in a range and shown a downward trend. The market sentiment has cooled down. The spot price has a slight upward adjustment [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The output of leading enterprises may decline in October, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production, while the component price continues to oscillate [1]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory is unevenly distributed, and the total inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The elimination of excess capacity is gradually advancing. The market sentiment has a weakened boosting effect. The futures price may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1]. Recommended Strategy - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100. The reasons are the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon. It analyzes the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each metal, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as position - taking and trading strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market sentiment**: Affected by the market volatility, interest rate cuts, and the trend of precious metals, copper prices reached a new high since the second half of last year, but there was profit - taking by early long - positions. The market is focusing on real - economy indicators such as September's European and American manufacturing data and August's US PCE [1] - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. Inventories have a small outflow but still accumulate this month. Refined copper production decreased month - on - month, and scrap copper enterprises are reluctant to sell. The market is concerned about the supply supplement from imports [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport's Indonesian Grasberg mine has a small amount of production, and the second - stage expansion of Congo's Kakula copper mine is postponed, affecting the production forecast for next year [1] - **Trend**: There is some pre - holiday stocking support, but the pressure on consumption indicators should be continuously monitored. After the early long - positions stop losses, it is advisable to wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity increased by 400,000 tons to 9.795 million tons last week, reaching a new high. The market is in an oversupply state, and inventories are increasing. The price is weakly running, with support around 2,000 yuan [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is stable at around 4 million tons. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly. Aluminum exports showed a mixed performance. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. The spot discount narrowed, and the processing fee increased [1] - **Trend**: The downstream seasonal improvement is not obvious, and the apparent consumption is lower than expected. The price of Shanghai aluminum has fallen from a high level, with support at 20,500 yuan. It is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [1] Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest rate cut, profit - taking led to a decline in zinc prices. The LME inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 - month premium has expanded. The domestic and foreign price trends are divergent, and the import ore ratio is not good [1] - **Supply**: Domestic smelters have maintenance plans in September, and zinc ingot supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Social inventories have decreased, and the price has support at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [1] - **Consumption**: The peak season is not prosperous, with weak orders in some industries. Although there is some low - level buying before the holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1] - **Trend**: Both domestic and foreign zinc ingots are destocking, and the decline space of the Shanghai - to - LME ratio is limited. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of short - selling on the rebound of Shanghai zinc before the holiday [1] Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is under pressure, while the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and rebounds with increased positions [1] - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the import loss has narrowed. The raw material supply at the mine end is tight, and some smelters may advance their winter shutdowns. The profit of secondary lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low [1] - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved before the holidays. The inventories of major lead - zinc smelters and secondary lead smelters have decreased [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals of lead have improved, but the expected inflow of imported ingots may put pressure on the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, and Shanghai stainless steel rebounded slightly, but the trading activity was low [1] - **Macro and demand**: After the interest rate cut, long - positions tend to cash out. The downstream market is cautious, and high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging, and the cost support is obvious [1] - **Supply**: The premiums of various forms of nickel have different levels, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have changed. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel goods decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased [1] - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is weakly running and is about to start a downward trend [1] Tin - **Market**: The prices of domestic and foreign tin encountered resistance and declined, and then found support at the MA400 moving average or lower levels. The LME squeeze is basically over [1] - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and imported tin ore is tight. Indonesia's tin production target remains unchanged [1] - **Consumption**: After the price adjustment, there is some rigid - demand buying. The inventories in some statistics have decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1] - **Trend**: After the reduction of the position - taking risk, the market focus turns to the domestic market. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and it is advisable to continue the "high - selling and low - buying" trading strategy [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with low - volume trading. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the difference between long and short positions has narrowed [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,600 tons [1] - **Demand**: Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" in the traditional automobile sales season, the orders of material factories have increased significantly this month, and the overall industry demand is strong [1] - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling action is basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon diverged last week. The price of industrial silicon broke through the 900 - yuan/ton mark, mainly due to the cost support from coal production cuts in Xinjiang [1] - **Supply**: The production in September - October is expected to continue to increase, and the production reduction may be clear around the National Day. The production in the southwest is relatively stable [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon in September changed little, and the reduction expectation of leading enterprises in October has increased. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer factories is stable [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,000 tons to 543,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The price of industrial silicon is affected by the rising coal cost and the expected elimination of backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1] Polysilicon - **Market**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated in a range and showed a slight decline. The market sentiment cooled down. The energy - consumption limit standard is in the solicitation stage [1] - **Supply**: After the industry self - discipline meeting, the production of leading enterprises in October may decline, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production synchronously [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon enterprises is unevenly distributed, and the total factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 204,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The capacity elimination of polysilicon is gradually advancing, and the spot price has a slight upward shift. The futures may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1] Investment Recommendation - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100, due to the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1]