1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals and industrial silicon, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand situations, and price trends, and providing corresponding trading suggestions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper reached a high, with strong support from short - term moving averages and potential resonance sentiment. Overseas, investment banks continued to raise next year's copper target and average prices [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Last week, the turning signal of domestic refined copper spot amplified. Attention should be paid to the spot discount range. The global copper ore supply may be tight in Q1 next year [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Peru extended the informal mining license for one year. LME copper inventory decreased by 5,500 tons to 160,400 tons, with a slight premium of $4 for LME - 3 months [1]. - **Trend**: Hold a small number of long positions in Shanghai copper relying on 92,500 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The ktis mine in Guinea resumed production, and the long - term CIF price in Q1 decreased by about $5 to $66.5/ton. The domestic alumina operating capacity remained at 95.9 million tons, with significant over - supply [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was above 4.2 million tons, and the second - phase of Inner Mongolia's Zhashan project was officially put into operation on December 20 [1]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.36 to 61.5%. In November, the aluminum product export was 1.885 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6% [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: Last week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 4,000 tons to 600,000 tons, and that of aluminum rods decreased by 4,000 tons to 123,000 tons. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China expanded significantly [1]. - **Trend**: The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. Short - term macro factors dominate. Follow the long - term long positions relying on the 40 - day line [1]. Zinc - **Trend**: Last week, there was a large - scale delivery in the zinc market, and the structure changed from backwardation to contango. The domestic - to - foreign price ratio was slightly revised upwards, and the zinc spot export window was completely closed [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME zinc inventory increased by 88,000 tons to 99,900 tons, with a 0 - 3 - month discount of $30.61/ton. Some smelters had a strong willingness to reduce production due to losses, and the smelter maintenance in late December expanded [1]. - **Consumption**: As the price rebounded, downstream acceptance weakened. Zinc consumption declined periodically. The social inventory of zinc slightly increased to 124,500 tons on Monday [1]. - **Trend**: The difference between domestic and overseas fundamentals narrowed. The domestic - to - foreign price ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market Conditions**: The lead import window remained open, and the overseas surplus pressure was smoothly transmitted to the domestic market. The main contract range was 16,700 - 17,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME lead inventory was at a high level of 258,600 tons, with a 0 - 3 - month spot discount of $45.23/ton. The supply - side pressure increased slightly. The profit margin of secondary lead smelters was compressed [1]. - **Consumption**: Lead prices were stronger domestically than overseas. Battery exports were under pressure, but the demand for automotive batteries was okay, and the demand for lead - acid batteries in data centers and energy storage was expected to increase steadily [1]. - **Trend**: The fundamentals are neutral. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai nickel first rose and then fell, and the trading was active. Shanghai stainless steel rebounded similarly, with moderate trading [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The news from the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association affected the market. The downstream procurement willingness may be strong at the end of the year, but the spot trading was cold. Stainless steel was in a wait - and - see state [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: Jinchuan nickel had a premium of 6,700 yuan, and the inventory of nickel increased by 200 tons to 59,000 tons. The stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 927,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Wait for the end of policy disturbances and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [1]. Tin - **Market Conditions**: The capital sentiment in the tin market was concentrated in Shanghai tin, following the trading sentiment of precious metals and copper [1]. - **Supply**: There was no clear clue about the supply in the southern part of Congo (Kinshasa). Indonesia's January export volume reached a two - year high. The domestic tin ore import continued to recover [1]. - **Consumption**: High tin prices continued to suppress consumption. The LME and domestic social inventories increased, and the domestic spot was at a discount to the delivery month [1]. - **Trend**: The market has strong volume resonance. Emphasize the high - level risks. The supply in traditional production areas is expected to resume in 2026, while the consumption may be over - estimated in some sectors [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: Last week, the lithium carbonate futures price rose significantly, with active trading. The trigger was the news of canceling some warrants [1]. - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate was reported at 99,000 yuan, and the price difference between industrial and battery - grade was 2,650 yuan. The industry maintained both supply and demand, and the de - stocking trend continued but at a slower pace [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The overall demand maintained strong resilience. The downstream demand declined slightly, but the demand for power batteries remained high [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons. The price of Australian ore remained strong [1]. - **Trend**: The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly, with overall strong fundamentals and relatively tight short positions [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price increase was obvious, with a significant resistance at 8,700 yuan/ton. The spot price in Xinjiang remained stable [1]. - **Cost**: The price of silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 30 yuan/ton, and other raw materials were basically stable [1]. - **Supply**: The production reduction of some silicon enterprises in the north was limited. The output in Xinjiang decreased slightly, and the operating rate in the southwest remained flat [1]. - **Demand**: The average price of organic silicon DC rose to 13,600 yuan/ton. The weekly production of polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate stabilized in December [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was about 553,000 tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 8,000 tons. The inventory of downstream raw materials increased [1]. - **Trend**: The market is waiting for the end - of - December trend. The overall fundamentals of industrial silicon are under pressure, and the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: After breaking through the 60,000 - yuan/ton mark, the price decreased with a reduction in positions. The spot price remained stable at 52,400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon in December decreased slightly. The downstream silicon wafer production decreased significantly by 18% month - on - month, and the industry operating rate remained at about 41% [1]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of polysilicon remained at a high level of 293,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The change in exchange rules cooled the sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are still under pressure, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space [1].

| | 操作评级 | 2025年12月22日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | 氧化铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | な☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | ななな | | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な女女 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一沪铜增仓创高，现铜跟涨到93675元，上海铜贴水扩至195元，广东铜贴水75元，洋山铜溢价小幅走高到48 美元。SMM社库 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, showing a bullish tendency but with limited operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Tin: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [1][2][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Metals Copper - On Monday, SHFE copper increased in position and continued to rise. The spot price followed the increase. The premium of Shanghai copper and Guangdong copper changed, and the premium of Yangshan copper expanded. The refined - scrap price difference converged rapidly. The social inventory increased slightly over the weekend. There is a probability that the upward trend of SHFE copper will pause this week. If certain conditions are met, the copper price at a record high may回调. Long positions can be held based on the MA5 moving average. If there is strong position volume cooperation, the upward trend of SHFE copper may expand to 95,000 - 97,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Today, SHFE aluminum first declined and then rose in a high - level shock. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China expanded. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was basically flat compared with last Thursday. Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of aluminum price is oscillating upward, but the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited. It is not advisable to chase the rise. The price of cast aluminum alloy has limited follow - up increase, and attention should be paid to the possible narrowing space at the end of the year. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and it is mainly in a weak operation [2] Zinc - The expectation of domestic smelter production cuts is strong, and the expectation of overseas smelter production increase in the fourth quarter is mediocre. The supply - side constraint of zinc ingots is strengthening, supporting the upward movement of the disk. The U.S. employment data is weak, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December is strong. Zinc is not considered for short - selling allocation. The export window of zinc ingots is open, and SHFE zinc is expected to test the annual line and may even break through it [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The decline of SHFE nickel accelerated, and the market trading was active with increasing positions. The stainless - steel market was sluggish. The mainstream stainless - steel mills cancelled the price limit and then lowered the price. The supply side actively cut prices to sell goods, but the trading volume was cold. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel changed. The bullish themes of SHFE nickel are exhausted, and the nickel price is in a weak operation with a downward - shifting center of gravity [4] Tin - The short - term two - way fluctuation range of SHFE tin is large. The MA5 moving average can be used as the boundary of strength. The supply - loss themes and actual supply constraints in 2025 are the core basis for raising the average tin price. In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, there is a high probability of a supply - side turning point, and the recovery speed is faster than demand. The social inventory of SMM tin increased. The LME 0 - 3 month spot premium decreased. The visible inventory in the two markets is neutral. Attention should be paid to the high - level risk, and a hedging strategy is still needed for medium - long - term supply - demand allocation. It is inclined that the tin price is approaching the adjustment time point [4] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, and the market trading was active. The downstream battery factory orders increased due to the continuous progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the strong performance of the traditional vehicle sales peak season, and the short supply of energy - storage batteries. Some phosphoric - iron - lithium enterprises promoted price increases, but the increase amount was low. The total market inventory decreased. The price of Australian ore strengthened again. The sustainability of actual inventory and policy increments are the focus of the market, and it is regarded as a short - term strong - side fluctuation [5] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the key support level at the lower edge of the range. From the supply side, the marginal reduction effect of the dry - season production cuts in the southwest region is expected to weaken after December, and the supply pressure may gradually stabilize. From the demand side, both the silicone and polysilicon industries face demand contraction pressure in December. The inventory reduction of industrial silicon at the end of the year is still under pressure. In the short term, the orange weather warning and safety - production notice in Xinjiang may support the market sentiment, but if the actual production cuts of local factories are limited, the price may further decline [5] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened. On the supply side, the production - cut intensity of upstream enterprises has not met market expectations, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the silicon - wafer production plan in December decreased by 16% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream's willingness to accept the spot purchase price of polysilicon decreased. The current spot market is mainly supported by leading enterprises' price - holding. The announcement of new brands of polysilicon by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange last Friday had a negative impact on the market, and subsequent warehouse - receipt generation needs to be tracked [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, inventory and price trends, and giving corresponding investment suggestions for each metal. 3. Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Market sentiment is bullish for the medium - long term, with high enthusiasm for long - term copper market allocation. In Q1 2026, major mines are difficult to resume production significantly, and lower long - term processing fees lead to reduced smelting capacity, increasing downward pressure on global refined copper smelting growth. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is rising, and the market is concerned about the change of the Japanese yen's interest rate. The manufacturing PMI of major northern - hemisphere economies is in decline at the end of the year [1]. - Domestic supply and demand show that there is no impetus for production increase. The inventory in the Q area has exceeded the peak in the mid - 1990s, and the US has difficulty in quickly digesting it. However, due to the potential of Trump's trade policy, the US is expected to import copper in 2026. The copper price may reach $11,500 - $12,000 in Q1 2026, and the domestic copper price may enter the high - level range of 92,000 yuan. It is recommended to short - sell at high points in the short - term and hold long positions at 88,000 - 87,800 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina has a significant surplus, with domestic operating capacity at a historical high. It will run weakly until large - scale production reduction occurs, with support at the annual low of 2,600 yuan [2]. - New production capacity is being added. Tian Shan Aluminum's second - phase project will increase production by 120,000 tons this year and another 120,000 tons in the first half of 2026. An overseas joint - venture project in Indonesia is expected to increase production by about 80,000 tons per year and reach a production capacity of 500,000 tons in October next year [2]. - The downstream demand is mixed. The overall开工 rate of downstream leading enterprises has increased by 0.45% to 62.3%, with some automotive - related fields being relatively strong, but the construction industry is still sluggish. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot discount has slightly expanded. The Shanghai aluminum price will continue to oscillate to test the previous high of 22,000 yuan [2]. Zinc - The zinc market has a supply reduction expectation, and the rebound pressure is weakening. The LME zinc inventory has increased, and the output of overseas smelters has not increased significantly in Q3. The domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, and the smelter output is expected to decline by more than 20,000 tons in December [3]. - The consumption growth expectation is insufficient due to the real - estate market, the slowdown of infrastructure investment, the end of the photovoltaic and wind - power installation rush, and the arrival of the off - season in the north. The Shanghai zinc price will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan per ton, with cost support [3]. Lead - The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the lead import window is open. The domestic and foreign lead prices have weakened synchronously. The domestic primary lead supply is tight, while the recycled lead has a situation of simultaneous maintenance and resumption. The lead consumption lacks an incremental expectation [4]. - The cost and consumption are in a game, and the Shanghai lead price will oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan per ton [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market has rebounded, with the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel prices rising. The inventory of stainless - steel 300 - series cold - rolled products has increased, and the market sentiment has slightly recovered but lacks sustainability [5]. - The overall supply of the nickel industry chain is increasing, and it is more reasonable to short - sell at high positions [5]. Tin - The tin price has soared, with the London tin approaching $40,000 and the Shanghai tin breaking through the 200,000 - yuan mark. The supply is affected by transportation interruptions in Congo (Kinshasa) and the resumption of production in Myanmar. The consumption highlights are in the semiconductor and automotive integrated - circuit fields [6]. - The inventory level is neutral. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices, and spot hedging short - sellers should be equipped with hedging strategies [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, with the spot price rising. The downstream production is active, and the total market inventory has decreased. The mining end price is strong [7]. - The overall fundamentals are strong, and short - sellers are at a disadvantage [7]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has a stable upward trend in the range. The supply in the Sichuan - Yunnan region is expected to decrease due to the dry season, and the demand is expected to decrease by about 4,000 tons due to the joint emission - reduction plan of the organic silicon industry [8]. - The social inventory has increased by 2,000 tons to 550,000 tons, and the market will continue to oscillate in the short - term [8]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price has increased, with the 2512 contract breaking through 60,000 yuan per ton. The production in November decreased by more than expected, and there is still room for downward adjustment in December. The demand for silicon wafers and components has decreased significantly [9]. - The factory inventory has increased by 10,000 tons to 281,000 tons. The exchange has adjusted the speculative margin, and the market sentiment has cooled down [9].

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Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - There are various factors influencing different commodities, including supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Each commodity has its own unique price trends and investment outlooks based on these factors [2][3][4] - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of range - bound trading, while others may have potential for price increases or decreases depending on specific circumstances such as cost support, inventory changes, and demand fluctuations [8][14][20] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there are still downward drivers due to future inventory build - up expectations. The near - term risk is related to Russia's stance on the peace plan [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight fuel oil prices rose due to cost increases. High - sulfur fuel oil may see short - term price support from supply disruptions, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken as the gasoline - diesel spread narrows [21] - **Asphalt**: Recent shipments in East and South China have improved, with inventory reduction accelerating. However, long - term, it still faces pressure as demand follows a seasonal decline [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a high - level oscillation, and silver is relatively strong. Uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical situations remain [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper prices rose, driven by an increased probability of a US interest rate cut in the next month. Short - term trading should focus on position changes [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly. After a price correction, downstream demand showed some resilience. The market is in a high - level oscillation [5] - **Zinc**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, providing some support to zinc prices. However, weak domestic demand restricts upward movement, and it is expected to trade in a range [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel prices rebounded, but the market sentiment is still cold. Stainless steel costs are decreasing, and the fundamental situation is weak [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin prices rose, and Shanghai tin followed suit. Attention should be paid to position changes [11] - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively strong, and demand is weak as steel mills are in a seasonal production - cut period. The market is expected to be range - bound [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices may weaken as the carbon element supply is abundant and downstream demand is under pressure. Coking coal prices are also expected to be weak [16][17] - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are range - bound. Although demand has improved slightly, overall demand is still weak, and supply pressure is gradually easing [14] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene prices are rising, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upward space. Polyethylene supply is stable, and demand is weakening [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are oscillating. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda prices are also weak due to high supply and low demand [28] - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term due to potential supply cuts from maintenance. PTA is expected to follow cost - driven trends with improved processing margins [29] - **Methanol**: It is recommended to try long - side trading or positive spread trading as overseas production cuts are being realized and port inventories are expected to decline [24] - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, and although demand has increased recently, the oversupply situation is expected to continue [23] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is high. South American soybean planting is affected by weather, and it is recommended to wait for buying opportunities after a pull - back [35] - **Vegetable Oils (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil)**: Palm oil market's marginal negative factors are easing, which may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - **Corn**: Corn futures are in a correction. North port prices are rising, and there are concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast. It is recommended to short at high levels with caution [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: The pig industry is in a de - capacity phase, which supports far - month futures prices. However, short - term prices are weak, and a second bottom may form next year [40] - **Eggs**: The medium - term supply pressure of eggs is expected to ease, but short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of futures - spot price spreads [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton is slightly rising. Domestic cotton has cost support and limited upside. The cotton yarn market is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures are in high - level oscillation. Short - term prices are strong, but long - term, there may be inventory pressure on far - month contracts [44] Others - **Shipping (Container Freight Index - European Line)**: Near - month contracts are weak due to weak spot market expectations, while far - month contracts are under pressure from geopolitical factors [20] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp prices are falling. Port inventories are increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see due to uncertainties in the geopolitical situation and Fed rate - cut expectations [46] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures are falling, and there are concerns about bond repayment risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the weekly trends of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, presenting the latest logic changes, supply - demand situations, and price trends for each metal [1] Summary by Catalog Copper - **Market sentiment**: Both domestic and foreign prices are oscillating, with a rigid support at the LME average price. The market is trading the probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut, and the probability has rapidly increased [1] - **Domestic supply - demand**: The long - term negotiation of domestic copper concentrate processing fees is highly concerned. The spot import copper concentrate index is below $10. Domestic refined copper output in November is expected to decline month - on - month. In October, refined copper exports increased to 6.59 tons, and scrap copper imports reached 19.66 tons, with a cumulative supply increase of 1.99% in the first ten months. The output of major household appliances in October decreased month - on - month, and the market is watching the power - end orders. The domestic spot copper price passively follows the futures price, and there is a certain bullish sentiment in the spot market. The SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 tons to 18.06 tons [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport is expected to restart the production of the Indonesian Grasberg copper - gold mine before July 2026, with the 2026 production expected to be the same as in 2025. The market is concerned about the restrictions on scrap copper exports. Affected by UK tariffs, European scrap copper has flowed to the Americas, and the COMEX copper inventory has reached a record high of nearly 37 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Last week, the "head - and - shoulders" pattern of Shanghai copper was supported at a key position, and trading became oscillating again. The stop - loss position of previous short positions was lowered to 86,500 yuan, using the 11 - 10 - day moving average as the strength - weakness boundary [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The price in Guinea is dropping towards $70, with an expected increase in ore supply. The domestic operating alumina production capacity is 9.61 million tons. Some enterprise overhauls or technological upgrades have short - term impacts, and there is no long - term production reduction. The alumina market is in significant oversupply, and the spot index is approaching the cash - loss level. Low - cost enterprises still have profits, and the price is weakly moving towards the support level of 2,000 yuan in the first half of the year [1] - **Supply**: The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable above 4 million tons. The first - phase 80 electrolytic cells of Tianshan Aluminum's second - phase project are gradually being put into production, and a 30,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of SPIC is planned to start production at the end of the year [1] - **Demand**: The SMM shows that the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises remains at 62%. In October, aluminum product exports decreased by 20,000 tons month - on - month to 48,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; aluminum product exports decreased by 24,000 tons month - on - month to 290,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [1] - **Inventory and spot**: Last week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 33,000 tons to 613,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 16,000 tons to 130,000 tons. The inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China have slightly narrowed, and the processing fee of South China aluminum rods has rebounded to 300 - 100 yuan [1] - **Price trend**: In the short term, the macro - sentiment is volatile, and the market risk preference is suppressed. The non - ferrous metals market has reduced positions and prices have declined. The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. After the price decline, downstream enterprises replenish stocks at low prices, with rigid demand but few highlights. The Shanghai aluminum price has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the short - term upward trend has turned to oscillation, with a possible continued adjustment and support at around 21,100 yuan [1] Zinc - **Price trend**: The zinc price is weakly adjusting, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed [1] - **Spot and supply**: Under extreme domestic - foreign spreads, the export of zinc in November is expected to increase. The zinc inventory has increased to 47,325 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium is still at $140/ton. As the weather turns cold, domestic northern mines are gradually shutting down, and the supply of ore is further tightened. The TC of domestic and foreign mines is declining. The zinc price has fallen, and downstream enterprises are replenishing stocks at low prices. The SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 151,000 tons. The split structure of domestic and foreign inventories is gradually being repaired, the import - ore smelting profit has improved, and domestic smelters' acceptance of imported ore has increased. Due to the high sulfuric acid price of 980 yuan/ton, the production - reduction expectation of domestic smelters in December is not strong, and the supply - reduction pressure of zinc ingots is not significantly weakened [1] - **Consumption**: The export of galvanized products is bright. Domestically, due to the weak real estate market, the slowdown of infrastructure investment growth, and the end of the photovoltaic and wind - power installation rush, the expected consumption increment is insufficient. As the northern weather turns cold, the demand enters the off - season, and downstream enterprises are cautious about future orders [1] - **Price trend**: Supported by smelting costs, with good external demand but weak domestic demand, be vigilant about the rapid change of capital sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Price trend**: The LME lead has a high inventory, the domestic supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and long - position holders are leaving the market. Both domestic and foreign prices have dropped sharply, with the LME lead falling 3.73% and the Shanghai lead falling 1.91% last week. The import window for lead has opened [1] - **Spot and supply**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 282,000 tons. The supply of domestic lead concentrate is tight, with the imported ore TC at - 100 to - 90 dollars/dry ton and the domestic PB50 lead concentrate at 200 - 100 yuan/metal ton. The SMM lead social inventory has decreased to 37,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory of recycled lead enterprises has decreased to 2,400 tons, the lowest since 2021. There are both overhauls and restarts in primary and recycled lead smelters. In the short term, the supply of recycled lead is slightly tight, and the price difference between refined and recycled lead has narrowed to 25 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 lead's discount to the near - month contract has narrowed to 65 yuan/ton. The import window opened intermittently in November, and the overseas replenishment is expected to reach the October level. Pay attention to the production dynamics of recycled smelters after profit pressure [1] - **Consumption**: From January to October, the cumulative export of lead - acid batteries was 186 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Affected by tariffs and the improvement of overseas battery supply capacity, there is no expected increment in battery exports at the end of the year. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, the terminal consumption of batteries has not improved significantly, and different battery production enterprises have different order performances. Enterprises produce according to sales. The finished - product inventory of battery enterprises is 15 - 17 days, and the raw - material inventory is 3 - 1 days. Domestic consumption lacks growth expectations but has rigid demand [1] - **Price trend**: There is a game between cost and consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: The Shanghai nickel price is oscillating downward, with dull trading and increasing positions; the Shanghai stainless - steel price is also declining, with decreasing trading volume [1] - **Demand**: In the stainless - steel spot market, the nickel premium is 500 yuan, and the electrowon nickel premium is 250 yuan. The Jinchuan spot price is resistant to decline, and the high - nickel ferrochrome price is 89 yuan/nickel point. The support brought by the previous price rebound is weakening, and the overall price of the industrial chain is under pressure. A large stainless - steel manufacturer has announced the procurement prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome, weakening the cost support, and the spot price is difficult to change the weak situation [1] - **Spot and supply**: The Jinchuan premium is 4,350 yuan. The pure nickel inventory has decreased by 900 tons to 52,300 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory has increased by 700 tons to 30,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 12,000 tons to 940,000 tons [1] - **Conclusion**: The Shanghai nickel market will reduce inventory, but short - selling is the main strategy [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The domestic and foreign tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The Shanghai tin market has reduced positions, but the enthusiasm of long - term funds for trading is still high. Pay attention to the situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo again, and the Shanghai tin price has repeatedly tested 295,000 yuan [1] - **Supply**: In October, the physical volume of domestic tin concentrate imports was at a high - low level, with the main importing countries contributing to the increment. The situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is tense, and a landslide in a tin mine has caused heavy casualties among manual miners, but there is no news about Alpha Tin's production and sales [1] - **Consumption**: There are few domestic highlights. The household appliance output in October decreased month - on - month, and the consumer electronics market is average. The SMM social inventory has increased by 211 tons to 2,050 tons, the LME inventory is 3,085 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium has expanded to $114. The domestic and foreign inventories are lower than the same period in the previous two years, and the situation is relatively neutral [1] - **Price trend**: Continuously track the news from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After the previous high - position short positions stop - loss at 295,000 yuan, short - selling is the main strategy, and out - of - the - money call options can be used to hedge risks [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: Last week, the lithium carbonate futures had a strong start at the beginning of the week and a weak end at the weekend, with active trading and significant capital movement [1] - **Spot**: The Shanghai lithium carbonate spot price has continued to rise, reaching 92,000 yuan. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton. Lithium salt factories are operating at a high - capacity utilization rate, and overseas mines are raising prices and frequently releasing goods [1] - **Demand**: Downstream material factories are actively producing, with both supply and demand booming. The production plans of battery and cathode - material enterprises in November are continuously improving, and the inventory of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decrease [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 118,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 2,170 tons to 26,000 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 3,300 tons to 49,000 tons, and the trader inventory has increased by 3,150 tons to 48,000 tons. The sentiment in the intermediate link has recovered, and the spot market has certain support. The latest price of Australian mines is $1,130, and the mine - end price remains strong [1] - **Price trend**: The futures price is oscillating violently at a high level, with large market differences, and risk control should be the priority [1] Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Last week, the "anti - involution" measure of joint production reduction by the organic silicon industry boosted the market sentiment. The price broke through the previous high of 800 yuan/ton but failed to maintain, and then fell back to around 9,000 yuan/ton to oscillate [1] - **Supply - demand**: The weekly operating rate in Xinjiang is stable at 8% (unchanged month - on - month), and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan are also unchanged month - on - month. Sichuan will enter the dry - water period at the end of November, and the operating rate may decline. The domestic polysilicon production in November is expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from October (affected by seasonal shutdowns), and the production in December is expected to decline slightly [1] - **Demand**: The domestic organic silicon printing price has increased to 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of about 850 yuan/ton. The actual - controller meeting of downstream factories has reached a consensus on production reduction, which will be implemented on December 1, and it is expected to reduce the demand for industrial silicon by about 400 tons per month [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM industrial silicon rod and powder inventory is 548,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary warehouses is 129,000 tons (an increase of 2,000 tons), and the inventory in bonded warehouses is 419,000 tons (unchanged) [1] - **Summary**: The expected production reduction in the organic silicon industry is expected to have a limited impact on the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon. In the short term, the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend. Track the organic silicon price dynamics, and the downstream price - fixing repair may further drive market fluctuations [1] Polysilicon - **Price**: The polysilicon price has remained stable [1] - **Supply**: Affected by seasonal factors, the polysilicon industry's production plan in November has decreased by 14,000 tons compared to October, and there is an expected downward adjustment in December. After the overseas demand recedes, the domestic demand for silicon wafers has also declined, and the intensified industry competition has put pressure on the external procurement demand for silicon wafers [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM data shows that the polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 259,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,000 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Currently, the prices and production plans of downstream silicon wafers and battery wafers in the photovoltaic industry chain are continuously weakening. Although the polysilicon industry itself is showing a month - on - month production - reduction trend, the actual effect of the marginal improvement in supply - demand is limited. In the short term, the polysilicon futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment on the one hand and its own fundamentals on the other hand, and is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is in a state of adjustment, with many varieties showing a pattern of reduced positions and price fluctuations. The market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4] - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors, and investment opportunities and risks vary [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Shanghai copper reduced positions and declined, testing the MA40 moving average again in the short - term. The domestic refined copper was reported at 85,815 yuan, and the premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong slightly increased. Technically, LME copper temporarily fell below the 40 - day moving average, with potential support at the MA60 moving average. Short - positions should adjust the stop - loss level to 86,500 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, and the spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China slightly narrowed. The short - term fundamentals of the aluminum market are average, with poor inventory accumulation feedback, and the adjustment may continue. The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price, and the price difference with AL may narrow. Alumina has a high operating capacity, with rising inventory and supply surplus. Before large - scale production cuts, alumina will operate weakly [3][6] Zinc - Affected by the divergence of US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data and the unclear prospect of the Fed's December interest rate cut, the long - position funds in the non - ferrous sector continued to reduce positions. Shanghai zinc, as a low - valued variety, was more resistant to decline than Shanghai aluminum. There is still a profit opportunity for cross - market reverse arbitrage on the disk, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel hit a new low recently, and the market trading activity increased. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, which may drag down the price level of the nickel industry chain. Nickel inventory increased, and the nickel price is running weakly with a downward - trending center of gravity [7] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions and declined. In October, the import of domestic tin concentrates increased significantly month - on - month. The long - term short - positions should hold with a stop - loss level of 295,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate once hit the daily limit down. The market is worried about systemic risks due to the overnight plunge of overseas US stocks, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. Risk control should be the top priority [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures continued to decline with reduced positions. The spot prices of industrial silicon and silicone remained unchanged. The impact of the expected reduction in silicone demand on the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is relatively limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the price dynamics of silicone [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures opened lower and then oscillated higher. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells are weakening. The supply - demand improvement of polysilicon is limited, and the short - term futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment and maintains an oscillating pattern [11]