| | 操作评级 | 2025年09月12日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | なな☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | 铸造铝合金 文文文 な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 能 | なな☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 文☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 内外铜价继续冲高,现铜涨至80755元,上海平水铜仍升水65元。联储降息前市场交易流动性释放预期,倾向铜 将敏感于经济指标波动。国内铜市关注消费成色,倾向前期多单择机止盈,同时关注2510合约执行价8.2万 ...

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Alumina: No clear rating indication [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: No clear rating indication [1] - Zinc: ★★☆, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear rating indication [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear rating indication [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The market is highly concerned about non - farm payroll data, which will affect the market's expectations for the interest rate rhythm after the September interest rate cut [2] - The downstream demand and inventory levels of various metals show different trends, affecting their prices, and the market sentiment is also influenced by factors such as "anti - involution" and policy news [2][3][11] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper regained the 80,000 - yuan mark. Today, the spot copper price dropped to 80,050 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium was slowly adjusted to 165 yuan. Short - term long positions held this week [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated today, with the spot discount in various regions narrowing slightly. The downstream start - up rate increased seasonally, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year, but the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not clear. Shanghai aluminum will maintain short - term oscillation, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price remains at 20,300 yuan. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with increasing industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts. The supply surplus is emerging, and the spot prices in various regions are accelerating to decline [3] Zinc - LME zinc inventory decreased to 54,800 tons, with a 0 - 3 month premium of $16.21 per ton. The overseas zinc spot supply is tight, and the loss of zinc ingot exports has narrowed. The short - sellers reduced their positions at low levels, and the price rebounded at the key 22,000 - yuan level. The short - selling of the profit margin on the trading floor is still the general direction [4] Lead - The cost and consumption are in a game, and the market contradiction is insufficient. The direction is unclear, and the trading volume is light. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel weakened, and the market trading volume increased. The impact of the political turmoil in Indonesia is gradually fading. The inventory of pure nickel, ferronickel, and stainless steel all decreased. Shanghai nickel will oscillate at a low level in the short term [7] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin closed up at 271,000 yuan, and the spot tin price was 271,700 yuan. The short - term long positions should be held based on 271,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded sharply, and the market trading volume was light. After the price dropped rapidly, downstream buyers took the opportunity to purchase, and traders increased their inventory. Wait for the price to fall before going long [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose sharply, driven by the "anti - involution" performance of polysilicon. The supply is expected to increase by 5% in September, while the demand is expected to decrease. The short - term bullish sentiment may continue to ferment [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures broke through the upper limit of the 55,000 - yuan/ton range. The spot price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material increased by 5,000 yuan/ton. The short - term sentiment may continue to ferment, and attention should be paid to position control [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The copper market's trading sentiment has been boosted by the rise of precious metals, and short - term trading is also affected by the Fed's potential September rate cut and domestic refined copper consumption substitution. The market is still cautious about the peak season. Short - term long positions should be held based on the MA5 moving average, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium of the call option with a strike price of 82,000 for the 2510 contract [2]. - The downstream开工 of aluminum has been seasonally rising for four consecutive weeks, and the inventory is likely to be low this year, but the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not clear. Shanghai aluminum will maintain a short - term shock, with resistance in the 21,000 yuan area. The price difference between scrap aluminum and Shanghai aluminum may further narrow. Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the industry is in a weak operation [3]. - Zinc prices are supported in the short - term due to the expected decrease in smelter output in September and low inventories in the outer market. However, the mid - line short - allocation idea remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities in the 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton range [4]. - The supply pressure of aluminum is slightly reduced, but the terminal consumption has not improved fundamentally. The price will maintain a short - term shock in the 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton range [6]. - The price of nickel has rebounded due to the expected impact of political unrest in Indonesia on nickel production. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel has decreased. The short - term trend of Shanghai nickel is volatile [7]. - The tin market has the theme of concentrate shortage, but attention should be paid to the changes in social inventory and funds. Short - term long positions should be held based on 271,000 [8]. - After the price of lithium carbonate dropped rapidly, downstream buyers took the opportunity to receive goods, and traders increased their inventory. The overall sentiment is low, and the trend is volatile [9]. - The supply surplus of industrial silicon will intensify in September, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [10]. - The polysilicon futures fluctuate around 52,000 yuan/ton. After the price increase, attention should be paid to the actual transaction. Before the new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to be under pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [11] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - Wednesday, Shanghai copper broke through 80,000 yuan but gave back the gains. The spot copper price was raised to 80,520 yuan, and the premium in Shanghai was 190 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today, and the spot discount in various places remained. The downstream开工 has been rising seasonally for four consecutive weeks, and the inventory is likely to be low this year, but the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not clear. The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is volatile, with resistance in the 21,000 yuan area. The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the spot price of Baotai remains at 20,300 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax rate policy increases the enterprise cost. The price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum may further narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the impact of major events in the north is very limited. The industry inventory and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange are both rising [3] Zinc - In September, the output of smelters is expected to decrease month - on - month, which forms a short - term resonance with the low inventory in the outer market, supporting the zinc price. The demand expectation is mixed, and the short - term trend of Shanghai zinc is volatile. The increase in ore supply is being continuously realized, and the mid - line short - allocation idea remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities in the 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton range [4] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed down. The spot tin price was reported at 273,100 yuan. The domestic tin market has the theme of concentrate shortage, but attention should be paid to the changes in social inventory and funds. Short - term long positions should be held based on 271,000 [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly. After the price dropped rapidly, downstream buyers took the opportunity to receive goods, and traders increased their inventory by 2,000 tons to 45,000 tons. The mid - stream continues to bet on price increases, and the transfer of goods is mainly from upstream to downstream. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 880 US dollars, and the ore price has slightly adjusted. The overall sentiment is low, and the trend is volatile [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly down. The weekly output in Xinjiang continues to increase, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to be reduced at the end of October. The output of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease. The supply surplus contradiction will intensify in September, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures fluctuate around 52,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of spot M - type dense material is 50,000 yuan/ton. In the last week of August, the downstream concentrated procurement volume increased. After the price increase, attention should be paid to the actual transaction. Before the new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to be under pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial instruments, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price outlooks for each category, suggesting trading strategies based on the analysis. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. The oil market is sensitive to geopolitical events. After Q3, due to OPEC+ production increase and weaker demand, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Consider shorting SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel with protective options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and China's ship - fuel sales declined, but domestic refinery production was also low. With crude oil's geopolitical premium and delayed LU supply pressure, both LU and FU strengthened [22]. - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand is increasing seasonally, and inventories are decreasing. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy on BU and SC10 [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the off - season, it shows resilience. With rising import costs and rebounding demand, the spot price is up. The high - basis situation persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the Fed's rate - cut expectation and boosting precious metals. Hold long positions and focus on US employment data [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through key levels. Short - term prices are affected by the Fed's rate cut, consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions and pay attention to call - option premiums [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum was strongly oscillating. Downstream开工率 has been rising seasonally, and inventory is likely to remain low. It will test the resistance at 21000 yuan in the short - term [5]. - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, and supply surplus is emerging. The price is weak but may not fall deeply below the high - cost capacity. Watch the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance will reduce output, and low inventory will drive a short - term rebound. However, the mid - term outlook is bearish, and consider shorting at 2.3 - 2.35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, nickel prices rebounded. With inventory declines, the short - term market is oscillating instead of bearish [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, but watch inventory and capital changes. Hold short - term long positions above 27.1 million [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price declined, and the market was quiet. Inventory changes were mixed. The market is oscillating [12]. - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot price rose, but actual trading needs attention. The PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply surplus will intensify in September, and the price may fall after the short - term rally. Watch the support at 8300 yuan/ton [14]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rebounded. Rebar demand and production increased, while hot - rolled coil's decreased. Inventory is rising. The market is under pressure, and the decline may slow down. Watch the demand improvement and production restrictions [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight iron ore price rebounded. Global shipments increased, and domestic arrivals also rose. Demand may decline due to the parade. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated widely. The first round of price cuts was partially implemented, and inventory decreased slightly. The price is under short - term pressure and is highly volatile [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Similar to coke, the price oscillated widely. Production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. It is under short - term pressure and volatile [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices may have limited downside. Observe the support at the previous low [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is rising, and demand is fair. Inventory is slightly decreasing [20]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. The spot price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited. The market is expected to oscillate and be affected by other alliances' plans [21]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The futures price oscillated. Daily production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is rising. However, with downstream demand expected to increase, the market outlook is optimistic [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The market may improve in Q3. Watch downstream demand and oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene cannot support styrene effectively. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene production inventory is controllable, but downstream acceptance is limited. Polyethylene demand is mixed, and polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising. It may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is supported by demand but may face supply pressure later, with a wide - range oscillation expected [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual supply - demand situation has limited improvement. Watch device operations, oil prices, and polyester load [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply increased, and demand was stable but weakening. Watch new capacity and policy changes [32]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply - demand is stable, and it may be bullish in the medium - term if demand improves. Bottle - chip has over - capacity issues [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, the soybean meal market may oscillate in the short - term. It may be bullish in the medium - to long - term, but pay attention to supply in Q1 next year [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded after a short - term decline. Consider buying at low prices in the long - term, but manage risks [38]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The price rebounded as short - positions were reduced. Policy auctions increased supply, and new beans will be on the market soon. Watch the new - bean price [39]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak. Feed companies may build inventory at 2150 yuan/ton. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, the price may be weak at the bottom [40]. - **Pig**: Spot prices were mixed, and futures prices were weak. Supply may increase in September, but demand may also rise during holidays. Prices may face downward pressure [41]. - **Egg**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices rebounded. The industry is in capacity reduction, and consider long - positions in far - term contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell due to better weather. Chinese cotton may oscillate, with support below and limited upside in the short - term. Consider buying on dips [43]. - **Sugar**: US sugar may face pressure, and the domestic market has limited upside. The price is expected to oscillate [44]. - **Apple**: The price oscillated at a high level. Early - maturing apples had high prices, but supply may be stable. Short - term price may rise, but be cautious in the long - term [45]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. Supply may remain low, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see for now [46]. - **Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Adopt a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [47]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: The stock market oscillated, and futures contracts showed different trends. There are short - term macro uncertainties. Increase allocation in technology - growth sectors and also consider consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures oscillated flat. US employment data and Fed's stance affect the market. Consider curve - steepening strategies in short - term hedging [49].

Group 1: Energy - Brent crude oil's November contract rose 1.04% overnight, while the US market was closed for Labor Day. The medium - term supply - demand of crude oil is loose, but short - term fund net long positions at a low level make oil prices sensitive to geopolitical positives. Consider shorting SC's November contract on rallies [1]. - Gold is boosted by the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and concerns about Fed independence. International gold prices are expected to hit a new record high. Hold long positions and focus on the US non - farm payrolls data on Friday [2]. - Copper prices fell overnight. The probability of copper prices breaking through the 80,000 - yuan mark and expanding the rally in the short - term is increasing. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA5 moving average and pay attention to the increase in the premium of call options with a strike price of 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [3]. - Aluminum prices fluctuated overnight. The downstream start - up rate has been rising seasonally for four weeks, and inventory is likely to be low this year. However, the inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increased slightly at the beginning of the week. The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is oscillatory, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area [4]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of Baotai remains at 20,300 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increases enterprise costs. The cross - variety spread between the spot and Shanghai aluminum is likely to narrow further [5]. - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with rising industry inventory and Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants. Supply surplus is emerging, and the northwest tender price has dropped significantly. Alumina is in a weak position, but it is not expected to fall deeply after breaking below the cost of high - cost production capacity [6]. - Zinc prices are under pressure as SMM zinc social inventory continues to rise to 146,300 tons. In September, smelter maintenance will increase, and zinc ingot output is expected to decrease month - on - month. Shanghai zinc has strong support at the 22,000 - yuan mark. Consider shorting on rebounds in the medium - term when the price reaches the 23,000 - 23,500 - yuan range [7]. - The supply and demand of aluminum are both weak, and the SMM aluminum social inventory remains at 67,100 tons. In September, the maintenance of primary and recycled aluminum smelters increases, reducing supply pressure. Terminal consumption shows no improvement. Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan [8]. - Nickel prices rebounded sharply overnight. The Fed rate cut expectation may imply greater overseas economic pressure. Concerns about political unrest in Indonesia may push up the price of the nickel industry chain. Temporarily view nickel as oscillatory [9]. - Tin prices showed a positive trend after strong two - way fluctuations. The inventory of LME Singapore warehouses has decreased significantly. There is a shortage of concentrate in the domestic tin market. Hold short - term long positions at low levels based on 271,000 yuan, and do not chase the rise [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are in a weak oscillation. The total market inventory decreased slightly by 400 tons to 141,000 tons. Adopt a bullish view in the short - term and control risks [11]. - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, driven by the sentiment of polysilicon. In September, the supply surplus is expected to intensify. Temporarily observe the effectiveness of the support at 8,300 yuan/ton. If it is effectively broken, consider shorting lightly [12]. - Polysilicon futures rose significantly, mainly due to a leading polysilicon enterprise revealing details of a "industry restructuring plan". The spot price of polysilicon rod - shaped silicon rose to 55,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the previous policy - expected resistance level of 53,000 yuan/ton and control positions [13]. Group 2: Metals - Steel prices continued to decline slightly overnight. The apparent demand for rebar improved month - on - month, production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both demand and production declined slightly, and inventory also continued to accumulate. The market is under short - term pressure, and the fluctuation may intensify [14]. - Iron ore prices oscillated overnight, and the basis has remained low recently. Global iron ore shipments increased significantly month - on - month, hitting a new high this year. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [15]. - Coke prices rebounded at the end of the session. The first round of coke price cuts was partially implemented. The overall inventory of coke decreased slightly. The price is under short - term pressure and has high volatility [16]. - Coking coal prices mainly declined during the session and rebounded at the end. The total inventory of coking coal decreased month - on - month. The price is under short - term pressure and has high volatility [17]. - Ferrosilicon manganese prices oscillated downward and rebounded at the end, driven by black - series varieties. The weekly output of ferrosilicon manganese continued to increase, and the inventory has not yet accumulated. Observe the support strength at the previous low [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated downward and rebounded at the end, driven by black - series varieties. The supply of ferrosilicon has been increasing significantly, and the inventory has decreased slightly [19]. Group 3: Shipping - The spot freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is still in a downward channel. The main shipping companies lowered their quotes for the second week of September by about $200/FEU. The market is under pressure, and the focus this week is on the shipping companies' empty - sailing plans for the National Day Golden Week [20]. Group 4: Fuels and Chemicals - By the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. Under the lack of positive support from the cost side and the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU is under downward pressure, while FU is relatively stronger due to geopolitical premiums [21]. - Asphalt futures rose against the trend. The factory and social inventories continued to decline. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy of going long on the cracking spread between BU and SC's October contract [22]. - The 9 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas remained stable. After the gas off - season, it showed certain resilience. The short - term futures market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [23]. - Urea's daily output decreased slightly but remained high year - on - year. The inventory of urea production enterprises continued to rise. Pay attention to the market sentiment before and after India's tender opening [24]. - Methanol's autumn maintenance is coming to an end, and domestic supply is increasing. The market is expected to be strong in the future [25]. - Pure benzene prices continued to be weak, breaking below 6,000 yuan/ton overnight. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but the current demand is weak [26]. - Styrene's trend is weak. The supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak [27]. - For polypropylene, plastics, and propylene: The inventory pressure of propylene production enterprises is controllable. The supply pressure of polyethylene is increasing, and the fundamentals of polypropylene are weak [28]. - PVC is weak. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The price of caustic soda is relatively firm, but it is not expected to rise or fall significantly [29]. - PX and PTA oscillated. The demand is improving, but the actual improvement is limited. Pay attention to the actual operation of the devices, the direction of oil prices, and the pace of polyester load increase [30]. - Ethylene glycol prices fell back to the 4,400 - yuan/ton mark overnight. It is expected to oscillate within a range [31]. - Short - fiber's supply - demand is stable, and the price mainly follows the cost. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the long - term over - capacity is a pressure. Consider a long position in short - fiber in the medium - term if the demand improves [32]. Group 5: Building Materials - Glass prices continued to be weak. The spot price decline has narrowed, and the glass factory's inventory has decreased. The price is expected to have limited downward space, and consider a long position near the coal cost [33]. - For 20 - standard - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber: The supply of rubber is increasing, and the demand expectation is weakening. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [34]. - Soda ash prices continued to decline. The long - term supply is under high pressure, and consider shorting on rallies [35]. Group 6: Agricultural Products - For soybeans and soybean meal: The international oil - strong and meal - weak situation may continue. There may be a supply gap in domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the medium - long - term [36]. - For soybean oil and palm oil: Both showed a rebound trend overnight. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade situation and the palm oil production cycle. Consider going long on dips in the long - term [37]. - For rapeseed and rapeseed oil: The global rapeseed supply will be in a stage of relaxation. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The futures may stabilize in the short - term [38]. - For domestic soybeans: The price rebounded after digesting the negatives. The supply of new domestic soybeans is expected to increase in September. Pay attention to the opening price of new - season soybeans [39]. - Corn prices rose with increased positions overnight. New - season corn production is expected to be good. The futures may continue to be weak at the bottom after the enthusiasm for new - grain procurement fades [40]. - For live pigs: The futures price opened high and closed low. The pig price is under downward pressure, and pay attention to the policy and supply release rhythm [41]. - For eggs: The futures price increased in positions. There is a possibility of accelerating the elimination of old hens. Consider going long on the far - month contracts for next year's first half [42]. - For cotton: US cotton oscillated weakly. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with strong support below and limited upside space in the short - term. Consider buying on dips [43]. - For sugar: US sugar oscillated. The domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [44]. - For apples: The futures price oscillated at a high level. The short - term price may continue to rise, but there is a lack of long - term supply - side positives. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45]. - For timber: The futures price oscillated. The domestic supply is expected to remain low. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [46]. - For pulp: The futures price rose slightly. The port inventory is high, and the demand is average. Adopt a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [47]. Group 7: Financials - The stock market oscillated strongly, and the ChiNext Index was relatively strong. Increase the allocation of the technology - growth sector, and also pay attention to opportunities in the consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The yield curve is expected to steepen [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: The rating is not clearly interpretable from the Chinese - like symbols provided. Analysis indicates potential resistance at integer levels [1]. - Aluminum: The rating is not clearly interpretable. It is expected to be in short - term oscillation with resistance at the 21,000 yuan area [2]. - Alumina: The rating is not clearly interpretable. It is in a weak oscillation, testing the 3000 - yuan support level [2]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The rating is not clearly interpretable. It follows the movement of Shanghai Aluminum [2]. - Zinc: The rating is not clearly interpretable. There is a mid - line idea of short - selling on rebounds [3]. - Lead: The rating is not clearly interpretable. In the short - term, it is seen as oscillating [5]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The rating is not clearly interpretable. Technically, nickel has a rebound intention, but the fundamental is weak, suggesting looking for short positions [6]. - Tin: The rating is not clearly interpretable. It is recommended to hold previous long positions and wait for profit realization, with caution when chasing up above 275,000 yuan [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: The rating is not clearly interpretable. It is in a relatively strong oscillation [8]. - Industrial Silicon: The rating is not clearly interpretable. There is a risk in going long, with the current focus on the 8300 - yuan/ton support level [9]. - Polysilicon: The rating is not clearly interpretable. It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [10]. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals. It takes into account factors such as inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different metals show different trends, including oscillation, potential rebounds, or weakening trends. For example, some metals have clear resistance or support levels, and the market sentiment and trading volume also vary among different metals [1][2][3][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper increased its positions, and the afternoon session expanded the rebound amplitude. The spot copper price was 79,390 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium widened to 250 yuan. Attention was paid to the US monthly PCE indicator at night, and the resistance at integer levels was strong [1]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum had a narrow - range fluctuation, with spot discounts remaining in various regions. Downstream开工seasonally increased, and inventory was likely to be low this year. However, the inventory accumulation point was not clear, and it was expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area. Casting aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price at 20,300 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increased enterprise costs, with the potential for the cross - variety price difference between spot and Shanghai aluminum to narrow further. Alumina's operating capacity was at a historical high, with increasing industry inventory and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts. Supply surplus was emerging, and the spot index in various regions was declining. It was in a weak oscillation, testing the 3000 - yuan support level, and short - term long positions could be considered if the futures discount widened [2]. Zinc - SMM zinc social inventory rose to 144,500 tons, and LME zinc inventory was as low as 58,000 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio at 25%. The domestic downstream consumption was in the off - season, and there were concerns about pre - consumption. In September, attention was paid to whether the consumption would be weak during the peak season. The increase in the mine end was being realized, and there was still room to short - sell mine profits on the futures market. The mid - line idea of short - selling on rebounds remained unchanged [3]. Lead - LME lead had high inventory, suppressing the lead price. Factors such as pre - consumption, tariff impact, and lithium substitution for lead led to insufficient expected demand growth and lack of rebound momentum. Due to smelter production cuts and transportation restrictions, SMM lead social inventory decreased to 67,100 tons. The raw material shortage situation remained unchanged, and the cost provided support. The downward adjustment space was limited, and in the short - term, the directional signal was weak, with continuous capital outflows. The consumption expectation was difficult to improve fundamentally, and in September, attention was paid to the implementation of smelter maintenance [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, but the market trading was dull. Traders had a strong intention to support prices, and the premium range of mainstream electrolytic nickel remained at - 100 - 300 yuan/ton this week. Affected by the decline in the futures price, the downstream procurement volume increased this week. Pure nickel inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 41,000 tons, nickel - iron inventory remained at 33,000 tons for nearly a month and a half, and stainless - steel inventory remained unchanged at 934,000 tons, but the overall level was still high. Attention was paid to the end of the de - stocking. Technically, nickel had a rebound intention, but the fundamental was weak, and short positions were to be sought [6]. Tin - Shanghai tin increased its positions and rose sharply. Tin announced maintenance as expected. Overseas A1 semiconductor investment remained prosperous, with low LME tin inventory and high premiums. The domestic spot tin price was raised to 272,900 yuan, with a real - time discount of 350 yuan to the delivery month. Attention was paid to social inventory. Caution was needed when chasing up above 275,000 yuan, and attention was paid to capital changes. The tin price might test 280,000 - 282,000 yuan. Previous long positions were to be held, waiting for profit realization [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price adjusted downward, and market trading declined. Some miners sold goods when the futures price rose, and there were sporadic auctions. After the futures price dived, there was phased reluctance to sell. Downstream continuously adjusted their psychological price levels, and the replenishment behavior was generally cautious. The total market inventory slightly decreased by 700 tons to 142,000 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 3000 tons to 47,000 tons, downstream inventory increased by nearly 3000 tons to 52,000 tons. After the price dropped rapidly, downstream took the opportunity to buy goods, and trader inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 43,000 tons. The speculation sentiment in the mid - stream decreased, and the transfer of goods was mainly from the upstream to the downstream. The latest Australian ore quotation was 925 US dollars, and the ore - end quotation slightly adjusted downward, matching the lithium price fluctuation. The mid - stream production decreased by 5% week - on - week. During the adjustment of the lithium carbonate futures price, the market focus was on the expectation of the 930 deadline after downstream shutdowns, which was difficult to verify in the short - term, and the fundamental had limited guidance on the price. Overall, it was in a relatively strong oscillation, and risk control was needed [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price was approaching the lower limit of the oscillation range. In terms of fundamentals, both supply and demand increased in August, and the restarted production capacity in Xinjiang released output. In September, due to industry self - discipline, the production schedule of polysilicon was expected to decline significantly, and the large - scale production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan might be postponed until after the dry season in September. It was expected that the supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon would intensify this month, and the spot price had been continuously adjusting downward recently. The futures market was currently focusing on the 8300 - yuan/ton support level. Next week, the policy expectation of polysilicon might ferment, but the fundamental support was weak, and the risk of going long was to be vigilant [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed up in an oscillating manner at around 49,500 yuan/ton. The weekly inventory data of polysilicon decreased rapidly, and downstream trading volume increased, mainly due to industry self - discipline. The production schedule of polysilicon in September was expected to decline significantly. Next week, the "anti - involution" policy expectation might ferment again, but before more details were disclosed, it was expected to maintain an oscillating trend [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including market trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday saw Shanghai copper contract give back the previous day's gains, with spot copper at 79,585 yuan, and premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong at 130 and 65 yuan/ton respectively [2] - The US included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list, which may make related projects eligible for federal funding or simplified licensing procedures [2] - Shanghai copper faces strong resistance at the integer level, and short positions at high levels are recommended to be held [2] Aluminum - On the day, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with East China spot prices falling to par [3] - At the end of August to September, there is an increasing expectation of smelter production cuts and maintenance, and transportation restrictions in central and northern China lead to regional supply shortages [6] - The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are improving, but the high inventory of the outer market and the insufficient expected increase in domestic lead - acid battery consumption limit the rebound space [6] - It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton [6] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising [3] - Supply surplus is emerging, with northern spot transactions falling below 3,200 yuan, and alumina is in a weak and volatile state [3] - The 3,000 - yuan level provides temporary support, and short - term long positions can be considered if the futures discount continues to widen [3] Zinc - Overseas and domestic mine - end increments are being realized, TC continues to rise, and domestic smelters are highly motivated to increase production [4] - The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and zinc inventory is continuously becoming visible, putting pressure on Shanghai zinc [4] - With the approaching peak season in September and the expected Fed rate cut, the macro - level is slightly optimistic, but it does not resonate well with the supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly, with dull market trading [7] - Traders have a strong willingness to support prices, and the premium range of mainstream electrowon nickel remains at - 100 - 300 yuan/ton this week [7] - Pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, nickel - iron inventory remained at 33,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory remained at 934,000 tons [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions slightly and closed with a positive line just below 270,000 yuan [8] - Spot tin rose to 270,000 yuan, at par with the 2509 contract, and the strength of spot pricing should be monitored [8] - Tin prices still have the intention to rebound, and long positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and market trading shrank [9] - Some miners sold goods during the futures price increase, and there was sporadic auction supply [9] - After the futures price dived, there was temporary reluctance to sell, and the market is bullish in the short - term with risk control [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased positions and declined, affected by the weakening coking coal price and the stable expectation of polysilicon capacity management policy [10] - In terms of fundamentals, supply in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan increased this month, and demand also followed up, with a significant increase in polysilicon production scheduling in August [10] - The short - term sentiment makes the futures price weak, and the support level at 8,300 yuan/ton should be observed [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to fluctuate [11] - After last week's industry meeting, the spot price of N - type re -投料 rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and actual transactions need to be tracked [11] - The inventory pressure of polysilicon is greater than that of silicon wafers, and production scheduling in August is likely to decline to repair the supply - demand structure [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, central bank policies, and supply - demand dynamics across different industries [1][2][3] - Different commodities show diverse trends, with some in an upward or downward movement, while others are in a state of oscillation [1][3][4] - Policy expectations, especially the "anti - involution" policy, have a significant impact on the prices of some commodities [18][19][27] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose. Geopolitical risks in the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a correction in the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing. It is recommended to hold a long straddle strategy of out - of - the - money options for hedging and enter medium - term short positions after the volatility increases [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: On Friday, influenced by the news of the US intensifying sanctions on Iranian oil exports, oil product futures strengthened. The inventory pressure is showing signs of relief, and the fundamentals are relatively bullish [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has stabilized recently. The domestic market faces supply increases, and the high - base - spread pattern may continue. It is expected to remain in a state of oscillation [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: After Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the US dollar declined, and precious metals rose sharply. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and international gold and silver are in an oscillatory range [2] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The copper price rose last Friday. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is high, driving up the prices of precious metals and risk assets. There is resistance at 79,500 yuan for Shanghai copper [3] - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum is oscillating strongly. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally increasing, and the inventory is likely to remain low. It is testing the resistance in the range of 20,800 - 21,000 yuan [4] - **Zinc**: The SMM zinc social inventory decreased slightly. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September supports the price. The fundamental pattern of increasing supply and weak demand remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term [7] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound. The stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks, but there is still uncertainty in the market. It is advisable to actively enter short positions [9] - **Tin**: The tin price recovered last Friday. Overseas tin inventory is slowly increasing, and the domestic SMM tin social inventory decreased. Short - term long positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium futures price broke below 80,000 yuan. The market trading is active, and the overall inventory is basically flat. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and risk control should be done well [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rose slightly. The market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [12] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures continue to oscillate. The price of N - type polysilicon has risen. The market is focusing on the terminal's acceptance of component prices. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted [13] - **Iron and Steel Products**: - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price rebounded on Friday night. The rebar apparent demand increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The hot - rolled coil demand improved, and the inventory also increased. The market is facing negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is low. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures oscillated last week. The supply is strong, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices of coke and coking coal oscillated upward last night. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The short - term volatility is large, and the downside space is relatively small [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. The demand is supported by high hot - metal production. The supply of both is increasing, and the prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [18][19] Chemicals - **Urea**: After the export news was confirmed last week, the urea futures price continued to fall. The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is greatly affected by market sentiment and exports [24] - **Methanol**: The methanol import volume decreased slightly. The actual situation is weak, but the expectation is strong. Attention should be paid to the overseas device situation and market sentiment in the fourth quarter [25] - **Styrene**: The styrene futures continue to consolidate. The cost side oscillates weakly, and the supply - demand is in a wide - balance state. The fundamentals still have a dragging effect on the price [26] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The price of propylene is boosted by positive supply - demand factors. The polyethylene supply pressure remains, and the demand support is limited. The polypropylene supply has short - term support, but the downstream demand recovery is slow [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high supply and insufficient demand. The caustic soda price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, but the long - term supply pressure is still high [28] - **PX & PTA**: The PX price rose last week, driving up the prices of PTA and downstream products. The terminal weaving shows signs of improvement, and the PX supply - demand is expected to improve [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounded from 4,400 to 4,500. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The market is expected to improve in the medium - term [30] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern is emerging. In China, the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. The market is expected to be cautiously bullish in the medium - to - long - term [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US biofuel policy and crop conditions affect the prices. The Indonesian government's policies have an impact on palm oil. The prices of soybean oil and palm oil can be considered for buying on dips [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The demand for rapeseed oil in the biofuel field is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand is tight, and the futures price has room to rise [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of domestic soybeans is under pressure due to auction supply and weak demand. The price of imported soybeans is relatively strong [38] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may adjust upward in the short - term. The domestic corn market is expected to be bearish due to good weather and low auction成交率 [39] - **Hogs**: The hog price is slightly stronger on the weekend. The central reserve frozen pork purchase is expected to have an impact on the market. The supply pressure is high in the medium - term [40] - **Eggs**: The egg price rebounded slightly on the weekend. If the price remains weak during the peak season, there may be a deep capacity reduction, which may support the price next year [41] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price oscillates narrowly. The domestic cotton market has concerns about new - cotton pre - sales, but the impact may be limited. The Zhengzhou cotton can be bought on dips [42] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price oscillates, and the domestic sugar market has relatively light inventory pressure. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: The apple futures price oscillates. The market is focusing on the new - season output estimate, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - **Timber**: The timber futures price oscillates. The domestic supply may remain low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. It is advisable to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates downward. The domestic port inventory is high, and the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt an interval - oscillation strategy [46] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is bullish, with high trading volume. The external macro - liquidity is stable, and the risk preference is strong. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures price oscillates downward. The overseas bond yield rise and the strong A - share market put pressure on the treasury bond price. The yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The copper market is under pressure and oscillating, with significant resistance in the upper trading range. The aluminum and alumina markets are maintaining a shock. The zinc market lacks effective resonance between fundamentals and macro - factors, with insufficient directionality. The lead market is waiting for the evolution of contradictions. The nickel and stainless - steel market shows different trends, with nickel in the middle - late stage of rebound and stainless - steel seeing inventory reduction and supply increase expectations. The tin market is supported by the MA60 moving average, and the lithium carbonate market has strong price trends. The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets have limited fundamental improvements [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Sentiment**: Sino - British tariff policies have a short - term impact. The market is still speculating on a September interest rate cut by the Fed. The UK inflation shows differentiation, and consumer confidence turns down [1]. - **Domestic Consumption**: High - price fluctuations of Shanghai copper affect downstream procurement. The current demand is mainly supported by the power grid. The output of recycled copper is affected by policies, and the market is not optimistic about copper consumption in mid - August [1]. - **Trend**: The upper trading resistance of the copper market is significant, and it is expected that Shanghai copper will trade between 78,000 - 79,600 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: Ore prices in Guinea are stable. The domestic smelting cost is 3,000 - 3,100 yuan. The operating capacity of alumina has reached a new high, and the inventory has increased. The spot index is declining, and the futures are weakly oscillating [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is around 4.4 million tons with low elasticity [1]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum - processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8% week - on - week to 90.5% [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is maintaining a shock, and it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - **Market and Supply**: The rebound momentum of LME zinc is still weak. The supply pressure is relatively high due to the continuous realization of domestic and foreign mine increments and the high - level by - product prices [1]. - **Demand and Capital**: Demand continues to show weak characteristics. The market tends to trade the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the macro - trading sentiment is repeated [1]. - **Trend**: There is a lack of effective resonance between fundamentals and macro - factors. There is room to short - sell mine profits on the disk, and it is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market and Supply**: Both domestic and foreign lead prices are under pressure at the 40 - day moving average. The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the primary lead production is active. The secondary lead production capacity is seriously excessive [1]. - **Consumption**: Affected by multiple factors, the consumption in the peak season is insufficient. Pay attention to the improvement of battery orders from scattered customers [1]. - **Trend**: The disk capital congestion is low. There is a possibility of a short - term return of long positions. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Market and Demand**: The stainless - steel market has seen improved transactions due to factors such as approaching the consumption peak season and low arrivals. However, the supply is expected to increase in August [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The spot premiums of different types of nickel vary. The ferro - nickel inventory is basically flat, the pure nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased but remains at a high level [1]. - **Trend**: Nickel is in the middle - late stage of rebound, and it is advisable to actively short [1]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price continued to decline last week, with resistance at $34,000 for LME tin and Shanghai tin weighted in the range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan [1]. - **Supply**: There is no new news about tin ore. Domestic smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are operating at low levels, and the market is observing the production plans of leading enterprises [1]. - **Consumption**: It is in the peak season in China, with "seeking re - melting" and replenishing inventory. The domestic social inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory is at a low level [1]. - **Trend**: Supported by the MA60 moving average, the tin price has a risk of rising in the long - term, and it is advisable to hold long positions [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures market has high sentiment and large differences between long and short positions. The spot market has price increases, and the supply is affected by mine suspension [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream cathode material factories are preparing for the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional sales season, and the production has started to increase this month [1]. - **Trend**: The price trend is strong, and it is advisable to adopt a short - term long strategy with good risk control [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: It is oscillating in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton, driven by lithium carbonate and polysilicon production [1]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's large - scale factories have resumed production, while those in Yunnan and Sichuan maintain low operating rates [1]. - **Inventory**: The SIBN inventory has decreased by 2,000 tons to 565,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon field has increased production, and the organic silicon market has new orders. There may be an increase in production during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. - **Trend**: The sentiment is strong in the short - term, but the fundamental improvement is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: There is strong support below 50,000 yuan/ton, and resistance appears at 63,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: The production in August may exceed 130,000 tons. The export - related goods are basically finished, and the production and prices of battery cells and components are under pressure [1]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts have increased by 1,900 lots to 5,600 lots, and the factory inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 242,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The high - inventory pattern of spot goods suppresses price increases. There are long - buying opportunities below 50,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the previous high of 53,000 yuan/ton [1]. Recommended Strategies - Hold the previous short - selling strategy for Shanghai aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Buy put options with an exercise price of 17,000 yuan for the Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract at a low level. There are opportunities in put option end - of - cycle trading [1].