2025/11/4 13:05 7d7814cdbd7b89ed1447e5a659ecb54f.png (4808×9816) file:///C:/Users/x_jin/Documents/xwechat_files/wxid_t3kyw09rokf621_6cab/temp/RWTemp/2025-11/21b1ed5d4bc1c2565721ffec5b461e61/7d7814… 1/1 | | 国授期货 snic | 有色金属周度观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货 | 研究院有色金属团队 | | | 2025/11/4 | | 序号 | 品种 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | | | | 但距离绕来海后反映的临界战仍有一定空间。随一上海铜贴水5元、广东贴水10元。3) 海外:印尼向阿曼矿业发放40万矿吨销隔矿出口许 | | | | | | 关注回调都性。1)情绪:上周内外深价创高后目调,沪锡加祝减仓。中美贸易紧张局势降温,美国政府延续停摆。染少指标指引。美联储 兑现第二次降息,未释放跨源态度。且对12月动作诗开放态度。国内10月 ...

| | 国授期货 snic | 有色金属周度观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货 | 研究院有色金属团队 | | | 2025/11/4 | | 序号 | 品种 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | | | | 但距离绕来海后反映的临界战仍有一定空间。随一上海铜贴水5元、广东贴水10元。3) 海外:印尼向阿曼矿业发放40万矿吨销隔矿出口许 | | | | | | 关注回调都性。1)情绪:上周内外深价创高后目调,沪锡加祝减仓。中美贸易紧张局势降温,美国政府延续停摆。染少指标指引。美联储 兑现第二次降息,未释放跨源态度。且对12月动作诗开放态度。国内10月制达业预回落到荣格线下方、英国ISM陆业指数连续八个月娄翁 。2)国内供震:供求两弱。系料精加工费低速。且达紧紧矿拉纳港因政治压力关闭,1月幸神向中国出口钢节奏可能下滑。除资分与新能源 半导体相关的板块。传统捐清费高价压力下点价需求有限。不过轻历去年Q2,现货端被动适应性有所提高。因内社库累序到20万吨上方, | | | | 1 | 铜 | | | | | | | 可,该矿今年生产一般,短期可能释放一 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年11月03日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ななな | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | な女女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | ☆☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な女女 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 铜价创高有基本面供损题材支撑,同时资金配置兴趣较高。中短线出于对高铜价压抑消费的担忧,市场对铜价 持续创高持不同看 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年10月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | 女女女 | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 能 | ななな | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业砖 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 上周内外铜价宽幅震荡，LME周活动结束，责金属加速创高与铜大矿供损风险升温，使市场大多看好铜价。从金 铜比出发，已升至1986 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding price trend forecasts for each metal [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday, SHFE copper fluctuated around 85,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was reported at 85,175 yuan, with a premium of 60 yuan in Shanghai. Social inventory increased by 5,500 tons to 177,500 tons this week [2] - The US government shutdown led to a lack of physical indicators. The Fed's Beige Book showed weakening consumer spending and labor force, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - SHFE aluminum rebounded today, with spot aluminum in East China at par. In the off - season, the apparent consumption of aluminum was basically flat year - on - year. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased by 23,000 tons and 5,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. Since the National Day, inventory performance has been neutral. Macro sentiment is volatile, and SHFE aluminum will test the previous high resistance in the short term [3] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of SHFE aluminum. The Baotai spot price is 20,600 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increases enterprise costs. However, the industry inventory is at a high level, and the SHFE warehouse receipts reach 43,000 tons. Whether the price difference with SHFE aluminum can continue to narrow remains to be seen [3] - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventory continues to rise. There is an obvious supply surplus, and the spot index in various regions continues to decline at a rate of about 10 yuan per day. The average cost in Shanxi and Henan in September was around 3,000 yuan. The current index price is not enough to trigger cash - loss production cuts in Shanxi and Henan but is approaching it. Alumina is mainly in a weak operation [3] Zinc - Although the spot export window has briefly opened, there has been no substantial large - scale export of zinc ingots. LME zinc inventory is at a low level of 38,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month premium is at a high level of $139.83/ton. Overseas supply is tight, but terminal consumption has not improved significantly, and downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is insufficient. LME zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - Overseas smelter profits have recovered, and overseas zinc ingot supply may increase in the fourth quarter. The hidden inventory cannot be verified for the time being. Focus on tracking changes in LME zinc inventory. Some smelters in Gansu and Guangxi in China plan to conduct maintenance, and the room for further expansion of the domestic - foreign price difference is limited. The fundamentals are weak at home and strong abroad, and the export window is about to open. SHFE zinc is expected to consolidate at a low level, LME zinc will fluctuate at a high level, and the SHFE - LME ratio will fluctuate widely around the opening of the export window [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel is in a weak operation, and market trading is light. After the interest rate cut, the tendency of long - position holders to take profits is prominent. Sino - US frictions have increased uncertainty, and the macro - environment is gradually moving towards lower risk appetite [7] - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. During the traditional peak consumption season, downstream demand recovery is limited, market transactions are light, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 953 yuan per nickel point. Pure nickel inventory has increased by nearly 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, nickel - iron inventory has increased by 600 tons to 29,200 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 3,400 tons to 909,000 tons. SHFE nickel's bullish factors are exhausted, and nickel prices are in a weak operation with a downward - biased center [7] Tin - SHFE tin fluctuated and closed up at the 280,000 - yuan level, and spot tin was reported at 281,200 yuan. The market has digested the Indonesian theme, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports rebounded to 484 tons in September. Hold short positions at high levels [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded, and market trading was light. Sino - US frictions have a short - term impact on market risk appetite. The overall inventory level of lithium carbonate is still high, and there may be a callback risk in the short term. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 134,800 tons. Smelter inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 35,000 tons, downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 60,000 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 40,000 tons. Technically, lithium carbonate is in a weak operation, waiting for clarity [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher and did not follow the strong linkage of coking coal. The spot price continued to be under pressure, and the price of the East China 553 specification decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The release of the复产 capacity in Xinjiang in September and the production increase of large enterprises have increased the risk of inventory accumulation. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest at the end of October, and the cost side has strong support. The futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to rise, mainly driven by the expectation of photovoltaic capacity control policies. The fundamentals do not provide effective support for the time being, and the spot price remains stable. The output in October may continue to grow beyond expectations, and the risk of inventory accumulation under high inventory has increased. After the market, there were rumors about recent capacity policies, which still need to be clarified. The market may have a callback risk due to this, and it is recommended to strictly control positions [11]

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: Not explicitly stated, but implied positive trend [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not explicitly rated [1] - Zinc: Not explicitly stated, but implied bearish trend [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: Not explicitly rated, but implied bearish trend [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: Not explicitly rated, expected to fluctuate [1][9] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated, recommended to be cautious [1][10] Core Views - The prices of different non - ferrous metals show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - economic situation, and policy expectations [2][3][6] - Some metals like aluminum and copper have specific trading strategies based on their market performance and fundamental factors [2][7] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper prices rose during the day, with the spot price at 85,235 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium was 90 yuan, and the Guangdong premium was 40 yuan on the last trading day. The option portfolio strategy is continued [2] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded slightly, with the East China spot premium at 30 yuan. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically flat year - on - year. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and rods increased moderately during the National Day, and the inventory decreased in the past two days. The spot premium and discount improved. The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will test the previous high resistance [2] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continues to fall by about 10 yuan. The current index price is approaching the cash - loss production cut level in Shanxi and Henan [2] Zinc - On Wednesday, the LME zinc spot delivery day, the 0 - 3 month premium declined from a high level, the zinc spot export window opened, and the LME zinc inventory stopped falling and rebounded. The extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets converged. The fourth - quarter Shanghai zinc has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the domestic consumption peak season is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is weakly operating, and the market trading is light. After the interest - rate cut, the long - position cashing - out tendency is prominent, and the Sino - US friction increases uncertainty. The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with limited downstream demand recovery in the traditional peak season, and the social inventory has stopped falling and rebounded [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up at 281,000 yuan, and the spot tin was reported at 281,700 yuan, basically at par on the last trading day. There is no new news about the resumption of Burmese ore supply, and the domestic leading production capacity that was under maintenance is gradually resuming production this month [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The Sino - US friction affects market risk preference in the short term. The overall inventory level is still high, and there may be a short - term correction risk. Technically, it is weakly operating [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fell slightly. In October, the production capacity in the Xinjiang production area continued to be released, and the production rate in the southern production area remained stable. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest production area from late October to early November. The cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price significantly rebounded, driven by policy - related news. However, the fundamentals lack positive factors, with the spot price narrowly fluctuating, high - price resistance in the market, and expected production increase in October. The risk of inventory accumulation is rising, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Alumina: No clear indication from the symbol, but it's in a weak - running state [1][3] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Zinc: ☆☆, indicating a long/short bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the market [1] - Lead: ☆☆, same as above [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Tin: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Polysilicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, mine production, inventory changes, and market sentiment. Different metals are in different market states, with some showing upward or downward trends, while others are in a state of shock [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper closed up in shock. The spot copper was reported at 82,210 yuan, and the Shanghai copper discount was 5 yuan. The supply absence of Grasberg for two quarters affected the balance sheet and the price shock center. Technically, LME copper showed potential for a trend breakthrough, and the MA20 moving average provided strong support. After the long - term damage to the supply of major copper mines, funds poured in and increased positions, driving up the price. The support level of LME copper rose to $10,000, and the Shanghai copper index was around 79,700 - 80,300 yuan, with 83,000 - 85,000 yuan being the high - level area [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly today, with a spot discount of 10 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 25,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The destocking before the National Day was neutral, and the apparent consumption in September was basically flat year - on - year. The demand was resilient but lacked highlights. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot quotation remained at 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax rate policy increased enterprise costs, making it more resilient than Shanghai aluminum. However, the industry inventory was at a high level, and the peak - season demand remained to be seen. The operating capacity of alumina exceeded 98 million tons, and the industry inventory continued to rise. The supply surplus was obvious, and the domestic and foreign spot prices continued to decline. The current price still had a profit for the production capacity in Shanxi and Henan, so it was not enough to trigger production cuts. The weak - running support of alumina was around the June low of 2,800 yuan [3] Zinc - As the National Day holiday approached, the downstream restocking was coming to an end. The production expectation of Huoshaoyun zinc smelter was strengthening, and the zinc fundamentals were weakening. Short - sellers increased their positions significantly. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc increased by 20,700 lots to 251,000 lots, and the main contract touched a minimum of 21,665 yuan/ton. The average price of domestic concentrate TC in October was significantly reduced by 300 yuan/metal ton. With the poor smelting profit of imported ore, the domestic mines were less willing to offer concessions. The support level of Shanghai zinc was still to be concerned at 21,500 yuan/ton. The LME zinc inventory was low, so beware of the possible sudden soft squeeze on the overseas market during the holiday. It was recommended that short - sellers close their positions before the holiday to avoid uncertainties during the National Day holiday [4] Lead - The previously overhauled primary lead smelters resumed production one after another. After the profit of secondary lead smelters was repaired, the resumption of production also increased. The downstream restocking before the holiday was basically over, and the long holiday brought short - term oversupply. The lead fundamentals were weakening, and the long - positions of Shanghai lead accelerated to leave the market. The market dropped significantly, erasing the monthly increase in a single day. The supply of lead concentrates was still tight, and the cost support around 16,500 yuan/ton was still to be concerned [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was running weakly, and the market trading was dull. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 325 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 25 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferrochrome was quoted at 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support rebounded slightly and was further hyped up due to the political situation turmoil, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons to 40,900 tons, the nickel ferrochrome inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 909,000 tons. The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel were exhausted, and the nickel price was running weakly, about to start a downward trend [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed down in shock, and the MA40 moving average provided support. Pay attention to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 in the evening. On the supply side, pay attention to the change in the refined tin operating rate after the major factories resume production after the holiday. On the demand side, the domestic tin upstream and downstream continued the destocking rhythm and actively restocked before the holiday. Pay attention to the inventory change after the holiday, and the actual demand still lacked highlights. The tin price was difficult to break out of a trend market for the time being. After the restocking was over, it was recommended to hold a light position and wait and see during the holiday [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated, and the market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 136,800 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 33,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 1,400 tons to 61,000 tons. After the price dropped rapidly, the downstream took the opportunity to take delivery, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,000 tons. The middle - stream began to be cautious. The transfer of cargo rights was mainly from the upstream to the downstream. The low - level support of the lithium carbonate futures price emerged, but the selling actions in the industry chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut was implemented and the anti - involution tide ebbed, the price was under pressure from the expected end. Still pay attention to the news on September 30th [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased in position and fell back to 8,600 yuan/ton, partly affected by the weakening sentiment of the coking coal market. The spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon was reduced by 50 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton. Although the expected reduction in the polysilicon production schedule in October was limited, the drag on the demand for industrial silicon was relatively controllable. However, the time node of production cuts in the Sichuan and Yunnan production areas of industrial silicon was still uncertain, and the supply - side contraction rhythm was not clear. From the current supply - demand pattern, it was difficult to form an effective driving force to support the continuous upward movement of the price, and the upward space was still restricted. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures market oscillation narrowed. With the gradual advancement of policies, the sentiment gradually returned to rationality. The production reduction intensity of polysilicon in October might be less than the previous market expectation, and the overall output contraction of the industry was limited. The industry was still in the period of high - level inventory accumulation, and the rise of the spot price slowed down. The short - term market was expected to maintain an oscillating operation. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market uncertainty for copper remains high, with pre - holiday stocking leading to price fluctuations. Aluminum and alumina show that the market is in a state of over - supply, and the performance of apparent consumption is not as expected. Zinc is suggested to be short - sold on rebounds. Lead shows signs of a phased improvement in fundamentals but faces pressure from imported ingots. Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak trend. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and a "high - selling and low - buying" trading style is recommended. Lithium carbonate is in a state of price oscillation under the influence of various factors. Industrial silicon has an over - supply situation, and polysilicon may face callback pressure [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment**: The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut and the situation of precious metals. There is a large price fluctuation, and the market focuses on economic indicators. The overall uncertainty is high [1]. - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable. Although the peak - season signal is not obvious, the market enters the pre - holiday stocking period. The inventory has a small outflow, and production has decreased month - on - month. The scrap - copper enterprises are reluctant to sell, and the market pays attention to imports [1]. - **Overseas situation**: Some mines have production problems, affecting the supply [1]. - **Trend**: There is a certain boost from pre - holiday stocking, but attention should be paid to consumption indicators. It is recommended to stop losses on previous long positions and then wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity has increased, the market is in an over - supply state, and the profit still has room for compression. The support level is around 2,600 yuan [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, with mainly capacity replacement [1]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing enterprises' operating rate has a small change, and the export situation is different for different products. After the implementation of counter - tariffs, exports remain rigid [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: The aluminum ingot social inventory has increased slightly, and the aluminum rod social inventory has decreased. The spot discount has narrowed, and the processing fee has risen [1]. - **Trend**: The downstream is in the seasonal peak, but the inventory has not shown a turning point. The apparent consumption is lower than expected. The support level of Shanghai aluminum is 20,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking effect [1]. Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest - rate cut, the price has fallen. The internal and external price differences have changed, and the import ore price is not good [1]. - **Supply**: The LME inventory is low, and the domestic smelter inventory is being repaired. The supply is expected to decrease month - on - month, and the social inventory has decreased [1]. - **Consumption**: It is still the off - peak season in the peak season. Although the downstream has increased low - price purchases during the National Day holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1]. - **Trend**: Both the internal and external zinc ingot inventories are decreasing. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is recommended to take the opportunity of the pre - holiday rebound to short - sell [1]. Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is in a low - level consolidation, and the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and an increase in positions [1]. - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic primary lead supply is restricted by raw materials. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low. Imported ingots are arriving in China, restricting the upward space [1]. - **Consumption**: The terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved. The inventories of smelters have decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The fundamentals are improving, but the imported ingot supply is expected to be strong. The upper pressure level is 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: The Shanghai nickel is in a low - level shock, and the stainless steel has a slight rebound. The trading activity is low [1]. - **Macro and demand**: After the interest - rate cut, the long - position holders tend to cash out. The downstream is cautious, and the high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging. The cost support is obvious [1]. - **Supply and inventory**: The premiums of different products are different. The nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is in a weak trend and is about to start a downward trend [1]. Tin - **Market**: The internal and external prices have encountered resistance and declined, and the LME squeeze - out situation has basically ended [1]. - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and overseas raw materials is tight [1]. - **Consumption**: After the price has dropped to the support level, there is a demand for low - price purchases. The inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1]. - **Trend**: After the reduction of the internal and external position risks, the market focus turns to the domestic market. It is difficult for the price to show a trend. A "high - selling and low - buying" trading style is recommended [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price has oscillated and rebounded, and the market speculation has declined. The difference between long and short positions has decreased [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The traditional car sales season has driven the growth of material factory orders. The overall industry demand is strong. The total market inventory has decreased, and the smelter inventory has decreased while the downstream inventory has increased [1]. - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling actions are basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is under pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have shown different trends. The price of industrial silicon has broken through 9,000 yuan/ton due to cost support [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The production is expected to increase from September to October. The demand side has different situations for different industries. The overall supply is expected to be in an over - supply situation [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, including the increase in ordinary inventory and delivery inventory [1]. - **Trend**: The price is affected by the upward cost of coal and the expectation of eliminating backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price has oscillated in a range and shown a downward trend. The market sentiment has cooled down. The spot price has a slight upward adjustment [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The output of leading enterprises may decline in October, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production, while the component price continues to oscillate [1]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory is unevenly distributed, and the total inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The elimination of excess capacity is gradually advancing. The market sentiment has a weakened boosting effect. The futures price may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1]. Recommended Strategy - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100. The reasons are the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon. It analyzes the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each metal, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as position - taking and trading strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market sentiment**: Affected by the market volatility, interest rate cuts, and the trend of precious metals, copper prices reached a new high since the second half of last year, but there was profit - taking by early long - positions. The market is focusing on real - economy indicators such as September's European and American manufacturing data and August's US PCE [1] - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. Inventories have a small outflow but still accumulate this month. Refined copper production decreased month - on - month, and scrap copper enterprises are reluctant to sell. The market is concerned about the supply supplement from imports [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport's Indonesian Grasberg mine has a small amount of production, and the second - stage expansion of Congo's Kakula copper mine is postponed, affecting the production forecast for next year [1] - **Trend**: There is some pre - holiday stocking support, but the pressure on consumption indicators should be continuously monitored. After the early long - positions stop losses, it is advisable to wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity increased by 400,000 tons to 9.795 million tons last week, reaching a new high. The market is in an oversupply state, and inventories are increasing. The price is weakly running, with support around 2,000 yuan [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is stable at around 4 million tons. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly. Aluminum exports showed a mixed performance. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. The spot discount narrowed, and the processing fee increased [1] - **Trend**: The downstream seasonal improvement is not obvious, and the apparent consumption is lower than expected. The price of Shanghai aluminum has fallen from a high level, with support at 20,500 yuan. It is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [1] Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest rate cut, profit - taking led to a decline in zinc prices. The LME inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 - month premium has expanded. The domestic and foreign price trends are divergent, and the import ore ratio is not good [1] - **Supply**: Domestic smelters have maintenance plans in September, and zinc ingot supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Social inventories have decreased, and the price has support at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [1] - **Consumption**: The peak season is not prosperous, with weak orders in some industries. Although there is some low - level buying before the holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1] - **Trend**: Both domestic and foreign zinc ingots are destocking, and the decline space of the Shanghai - to - LME ratio is limited. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of short - selling on the rebound of Shanghai zinc before the holiday [1] Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is under pressure, while the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and rebounds with increased positions [1] - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the import loss has narrowed. The raw material supply at the mine end is tight, and some smelters may advance their winter shutdowns. The profit of secondary lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low [1] - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved before the holidays. The inventories of major lead - zinc smelters and secondary lead smelters have decreased [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals of lead have improved, but the expected inflow of imported ingots may put pressure on the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, and Shanghai stainless steel rebounded slightly, but the trading activity was low [1] - **Macro and demand**: After the interest rate cut, long - positions tend to cash out. The downstream market is cautious, and high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging, and the cost support is obvious [1] - **Supply**: The premiums of various forms of nickel have different levels, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have changed. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel goods decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased [1] - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is weakly running and is about to start a downward trend [1] Tin - **Market**: The prices of domestic and foreign tin encountered resistance and declined, and then found support at the MA400 moving average or lower levels. The LME squeeze is basically over [1] - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and imported tin ore is tight. Indonesia's tin production target remains unchanged [1] - **Consumption**: After the price adjustment, there is some rigid - demand buying. The inventories in some statistics have decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1] - **Trend**: After the reduction of the position - taking risk, the market focus turns to the domestic market. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and it is advisable to continue the "high - selling and low - buying" trading strategy [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with low - volume trading. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the difference between long and short positions has narrowed [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,600 tons [1] - **Demand**: Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" in the traditional automobile sales season, the orders of material factories have increased significantly this month, and the overall industry demand is strong [1] - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling action is basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon diverged last week. The price of industrial silicon broke through the 900 - yuan/ton mark, mainly due to the cost support from coal production cuts in Xinjiang [1] - **Supply**: The production in September - October is expected to continue to increase, and the production reduction may be clear around the National Day. The production in the southwest is relatively stable [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon in September changed little, and the reduction expectation of leading enterprises in October has increased. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer factories is stable [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,000 tons to 543,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The price of industrial silicon is affected by the rising coal cost and the expected elimination of backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1] Polysilicon - **Market**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated in a range and showed a slight decline. The market sentiment cooled down. The energy - consumption limit standard is in the solicitation stage [1] - **Supply**: After the industry self - discipline meeting, the production of leading enterprises in October may decline, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production synchronously [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon enterprises is unevenly distributed, and the total factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 204,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The capacity elimination of polysilicon is gradually advancing, and the spot price has a slight upward shift. The futures may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1] Investment Recommendation - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100, due to the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ななな - Alumina: ななな - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 - Zinc: な☆☆ - Nickel: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: 立☆☆ - Tin: な☆☆ - Lithium Carbonate: な女女 - Industrial Silicon: ななな - Polysilicon: な女女 [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides an analysis of the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and offers corresponding investment suggestions such as taking profit, short - term observation, and waiting for key position breakthroughs [2][3][4] Summaries by Metal Categories Copper - The intraday gain of Shanghai copper was recovered on Tuesday, and the spot copper price was raised to 81,120 yuan. After the contract change, the premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong were 75 yuan and 40 yuan respectively. To see further price increases, focus on capital interest. Currently, the trading volume and open interest are average. It is recommended to take profit on long positions opportunistically [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today, and the spot discounts in various regions remained stable, with a 50 - yuan discount in East China. Downstream开工 continued to pick up seasonally, and the aluminum ingot inventory is likely to remain at a low level this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not shown an inflection point, increasing by 11,000 tons on Monday compared to last Thursday. Pay attention to the demand feedback during the peak season. Shanghai aluminum will test the resistance at the March high in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy slightly declined following Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price remained at 20,600 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax policy will increase enterprise costs. There is room for the cross - variety price difference between spot and Shanghai aluminum to further narrow. The operating capacity of alumina has exceeded 97 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory has continued to rise, with warehouse receipts exceeding 150,000 tons. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot prices in various regions have continued to decline. The tender price of Xinjiang aluminum plants, converted to the northern ex - factory price, is lower than 2,950 yuan. The cash cost of production capacity in Shanxi and Henan still has a profit, and the support level for alumina is temporarily seen around the June low of 2,830 yuan [3] Zinc - The characteristics of the consumption peak season are not obvious. The spot price continues to be at a discount to the futures price. Holders are active in delivering goods to warehouses, and downstream buyers only make rigid - demand purchases at low prices. The SMM social inventory of zinc has risen to 160,600 tons, and Shanghai zinc is under pressure due to oversupply. The rebound was blocked at the 40 - day moving average. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline to 50,200 tons, and the 0 - 3 month premium was $26.76 per ton. The overseas spot market is tight, and the fundamentals at home and abroad are highly differentiated. The Shanghai - London ratio is moving towards the direction of opening exports. The overseas market provides support for the domestic market, and Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate narrowly above 22,000 yuan/ton. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level. The speculation of interest - rate cut expectations led to the reduction of short positions. In the spot market, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferrochrome was 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support has rebounded slightly, and the political situation turmoil has been further hyped up, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 16,000 tons to 919,000 tons. Shanghai nickel is affected by interest - rate cut expectations and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with a decrease in open interest and closed lower. The spot tin price was reduced by 900 yuan to 272,400 yuan. Overnight, the LME 0 - 3 month spot discount widened to $132. The risk of overseas trading volume and open interest has decreased. The focus of the tin market has shifted to the domestic market. Wait for specific import and export data related to tin this week, and focus on tracking the import of concentrates and whether refined tin will turn into a net export in a single month. After taking profit on a small number of long positions earlier, temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [8] Lithium Carbonate - The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 3,200 tons to 36,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons. After the rapid price decline, downstream buyers took the opportunity to purchase, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The middle - stream sector has become cautious. The transfer of cargo rights is mainly due to upstream producers selling to downstream buyers. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $810. The ore - end quotation has slightly adjusted, matching the lithium price fluctuation. The futures price of lithium carbonate shows support at a low level. Since the selling actions in the industry chain are basically completed, adopt a short - term bullish view. Subsequently, pay attention to the medium - and long - term directional guidance brought by external changes [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed higher with a decrease in open interest, approaching the resistance level of 9,000 yuan/ton. Recently, the price increase was partly driven by the rising coking coal price. From a policy perspective, the expectations of clearing out high - energy - consumption and inefficient production capacity and adjusting energy - consumption standards are continuously rising, but the actual implementation effect remains to be seen. Fundamentally, the spot price of industrial silicon was raised by 100 yuan/ton. The supply in September is expected to increase by 5% month - on - month, and the production schedules of downstream silicone and polysilicon are expected to be slightly reduced month - on - month. The latest weekly social inventory of industrial silicon increased slightly month - on - month. In summary, policy expectations provide some support to the market, but the room for fundamental improvement is limited. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the resistance at 9,000 yuan/ton [10] Polysilicon - The intraday high of polysilicon was 55,900 yuan/ton, and it closed at 53,600 yuan/ton, mainly because a polysilicon leading company announced a plan to raise funds for supply - side structural reform. On the spot side, the quotation of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material was stable at 49,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. The production schedule in September decreased only slightly compared with last month. In late August, crystal - pulling factories made concentrated purchases due to the expected polysilicon production cut. Currently, the trading volume has slowed down, and the polysilicon inventory continues to rise. In summary, policy expectations provide a bottom - line support, and the capital flow rhythm changes rapidly. To break through the key resistance level, incremental policy news is still required. The short - term trend will remain volatile [11]