| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ななな | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业等 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | | | | | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周五沪铜震荡收阴,今日现铜79450元,上海升水125元。工业品"反内卷"题材下，铜市场交易情绪偏谨慎, 倾向铜价上方整数关阻力大。隔夜美欧服务业PMI强劲，德国制造业动能转折，美国制造业P ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月25日 (原油) 三季度旺季以来石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%， OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的供需盈余压力始终存在。7月原油市场进入伊以冲突剧烈波动后的震荡 修复期,近期月差、现货升贴水转弱,海外柴油裂解在东西套利窗口打开后亦有所回落,此前支撑 市场的旺季强现实因素转弱。尽管美日协议以利好落地,美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍令市场 面临需求预期冲击，近期相关利空风险大于地缘端利多，油价以震荡承压为主；8月底、9月初伊 核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 【责金属】 隔夜美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值49.5不及预期但服务业PM155.2表现偏强,周度初请失业金人 数21.7万人维持低位,经济数据体现韧性。美国与多个国家关税协议有望陆续达成,截止日前市场 不确定性仍存，但超预期对抗的概率在下降,贵金属宽幅震荡为主。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收跌，与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关阻力大。美欧服 务业PM1强劲，德国制造业动能转折， ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | | な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 能 | ☆☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | な女女 | | | 多晶硅 | ななな | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜震荡收阳,尾盘短线交投情绪波动大。与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整 数关有阻力。隔夜美盘铜价创高,美 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月18日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | な女女 | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周五沪铜扩大涨幅，周K线收阳，2508减仓快。今日现铜上调到78660元，上海升水扩至175元、广东升水缩至45 元。技术上,上周铜价下调后,伦铜区间交投在MA60-40日均线间。交投上,空头持有或尝试2508 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff news, with high uncertainty in the US employment market, inflation, and retail sales. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the end of the month is limited, and risks need to be vigilant [1]. - Different metals have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, copper prices may show a high - fall trend, aluminum has limited upward space, zinc continues to be short - allocated, lead is expected to be strongly volatile, nickel and stainless steel are under pressure, tin continues to be short - allocated, and some non - ferrous metals such as lithium carbonate and industrial silicon have certain rebound trends [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Copper - Market situation: The CSPT group did not set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate this quarter, with a large contradiction between mining and smelting. The US tariff policy may affect copper prices, and the spread between refined and scrap copper has changed. The LME 3 - month spot premium has turned into a discount of $60. The market is likely to show a high - fall trend [1]. - Investment strategy: Short positions are held. Consider selling 2508 contract call options with an exercise price of 80,000 and buying 2508 contract put options with an exercise price of 76,000 in a 1:2 ratio [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Market situation: The rainy season in Guinea has come, but due to the large increase in domestic bauxite imports and inventory recovery, the market rumors of the resumption of production of Shunda Mining. The operating capacity of alumina has remained at 93.55 million tons, and the industry's total inventory is stable. The demand for aluminum is affected by the traditional off - season, high - cost aluminum, and high - temperature weather. The inventory has increased, and the price has adjusted [1]. - Investment strategy: Hold the short - allocation strategy for Shanghai aluminum [1]. Zinc - Market situation: After the LME zinc rebounded back to the 60 - day moving average last week, the domestic inventory increased, and the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was insufficient. As a mine - end pricing variety, it continues the short - allocation strategy, and observe the rhythm of short - sellers' second entry [1]. Lead - Market situation: The LME lead fluctuated, and the Shanghai lead stepped back on the key level of 17,000. The market divergence increased. The supply of domestic lead ore is tight, and the supply of lead ingots is restricted by raw materials. The demand is in the off - season, but there is some consumption expectation. The cost provides strong support, and the impact of tariffs is repeated [1]. - Investment strategy: Long positions are held at 17,000 [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market situation: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level. The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with large inventory, weak demand, and reduced cost support. The price of ferronickel has increased, and the inventory has also increased [1]. - Investment strategy: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - sellers should beware [1]. Tin - Market situation: The LME tin inventory is around 2,000 tons, providing support for tin prices. The supply in Central Africa has decreased, and domestic processing fees are tight. The domestic downstream has a certain replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. The export of some products has decreased. The domestic tin market continues the previous theme, with high domestic and low external visible inventory [1]. - Investment strategy: Continue the short - allocation strategy. Consider short - selling contracts in the high - level range of 258,000 - 272,000 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market situation: The trading atmosphere of lithium carbonate has rebounded, with active trading. The spot price of lithium battery has risks, and the procurement is relatively cautious [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market situation: The price of industrial silicon has rebounded, and the demand has increased marginally. The production in Xinjiang has continued to decline, and the marginal increase in Yunnan in July is limited. The inventory has decreased, and the market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Polysilicon - Market situation: The price of polysilicon has broken through 40,000 yuan/ton. The production in July has exceeded the previous range, and the inventory has increased. The production of batteries has continued to decline, and the price is affected by polysilicon [1]. - Investment strategy: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, and policy expectations are the main trading logic [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend, and short positions should be held or option strategies can be attempted [1] - The Shanghai aluminum futures have short - term correction pressure, while the cast aluminum alloy has certain resilience, and the upward space of alumina is limited [2] - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds should be continued [3] - The lead price continues the low - level consolidation trend, and there is a possibility of further decline if overseas low - price lead is imported [5] - The nickel market has room for rebound, waiting for a better short - selling position [6] - The tin market should continue the short - selling direction [7] - The lithium carbonate market is in the area for short - position layout [8] - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [10] Summary by Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillated at 78,000 yuan on Tuesday. The spot copper price was 77,995 yuan, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed to 540 yuan. The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum futures had short - term correction pressure after breaking the upward trend line. The cast aluminum alloy had certain resilience. The upward space of alumina was limited due to over - capacity [2] Zinc - The inventories of both domestic and foreign zinc markets increased, and the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. The short - selling on rebounds strategy should be continued [3] Lead - The LME lead inventory increased significantly, dragging down the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead was relatively resistant to decline, but there was a risk of further decline if overseas low - price lead was imported [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price dropped sharply, and there was room for rebound. The stainless steel market was in the off - season, and the inventory was at a high level [6] Tin - The Shanghai tin price opened a decline and was supported at 262,000 yuan. The short - selling direction should be continued [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated and rebounded, but the inventory continued to rise. The short - position layout area had arrived [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose significantly, and the fundamentals improved marginally. It was expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rebound, and the short - term trend was expected to be volatile and upward, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [10]

【铝&氧化铝&铝合金】 今日沪铝震荡，华东现货贴水维持在50元。近期产业淡季负反馈显现，小幅累库，沪铝指数持仓处于近年高位 体现市场分歧大，美国关税政策调整风险下关注多头是否会持续减仓带来阶段性调整。铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波 动，保太ADC12报价稳定在19500元。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元以上但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差维 持在400-500元波动，价差如有扩大考虑多AD空AL个入，此外关注基差机会。近期过剩行业反内卷题材带动氧化 铝期现货上调，今日各地现货指数继续上调10-20元,上期所仓单库存极低需要甚差走低吸引仓单库存流入,期 货月差拉大暂震荡偏强，但国内氧化铝运行产能回升至历史高位，过剩前景下上方空间或有限。 【锌】 关税影响反复，资金倾向落袋为安，进一步入场偏谨慎,日内沪锌加权持仓再降3271手至25万手，资金拥挤度 继续下降，整体暂承压于60日均线。SMMO#锌均价较近月盘面实时升水50元/吨，收盘价07合约较08合约低20元/ 吨,前期Back结构明显走平,侧面印证基本面供增需弱。下游高价接货意愿不足,现货交投清淡。锌延续反弹 空配思路不改。 | | 操作评级 | 2025年07 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | な女女 | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | な☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周二沪铜震荡收阳，2507合约加速减仓。今日现铜79795元，上海铜升水缩至85元，广东贴水扩至50元。晚间继 续关注特朗普关 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月04日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | なな女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | な女女 | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周五沪铜城仓收阴,交割月合约持仓减至7万手以下。今日现铜报80535元,上海铜延续115元升水,广东铜升水 缩至25元。隔夜美国6月非农就业及失业率好于预期，调降7月联储降息概率。技术上，周内沪铜涨势测试8 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年06月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铜 | な女女 | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | ★☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 错 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | 锡 | な女女 | F03099436 Z0021022 | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | な女女 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | なな女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一沪铜减仓，主力合约8万偏下震荡收阳。今日现铜79990元，上海铜升水扩至130元，精废价差扩至2100元以 上 ...