| | 操作评级 | 2026年03月03日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | ななな | | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な女女 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周二铜价震荡走低,尽管美欧2月制造业PMI在荣枯线上方,但伊朗军事冲突抬高能源价格增大经济增长风险, 且美元相 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2026年02月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | なな☆ | | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 能 | な☆☆ | | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な女女 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周五下午盘铜价跟随小金属交投情绪放大涨幅,本周交投区间稳定在密集均线上方。特朗普访华前,倾向对中 国关税态度相对缓和，需求端主 ...

Group 1: Energy - Brent crude oil's main contract dropped to $67 per barrel, and WTI crude oil price also fell to around $63 per barrel. Geopolitical events have a phased and intermittent impact on oil prices, and the oil market faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, with expected continued volatility [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue a strong trend due to geopolitical uncertainties and a tight supply - demand pattern, while low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from refinery issues, increased supply, and weakening demand during the shipping off - season [21] - The production of asphalt in February is expected to decline both year - on - year and month - on - month, with improved consumption. The price is expected to be strong, and the cracking spread may continue to rise [22] - Urea production is increasing, with some agricultural demand starting and industrial demand declining. The market is expected to oscillate within a range [23] - Methanol's overseas and domestic device operations have changed, with coastal demand weakening and inventory transfer. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market is affected by overseas situations [24] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals rebounded on Friday. The US economic data was mixed, and the market is waiting for non - farm payrolls and CPI data to reassess the prospects of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical uncertainties remain, and short - term precious metals are in a volatile stage [2] - Copper prices oscillated at a relatively high level last week. The contract spreads in spring and the second quarter are in a positive market arrangement, and post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure prices and then lead to an upward exploration [3] - Aluminum prices oscillated on Friday night. The spot premium and discount varied in different regions, and the market is expected to be weak and oscillating with adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival [4] - Zinc prices oscillated at a high level, with a support level at 24,000 yuan/ton. The market is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds is maintained [7] - Lead prices continued to decline. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream demand weakened, and the market is expected to be weak before the festival, with opportunities for low - buying to be awaited [8] - Nickel prices fell, and the stainless - steel market had weak actual transactions. The inventory of steel mills is low, and traders are reluctant to lower prices, but market sentiment is panicked [9] - Tin prices declined unilaterally last week. It is recommended to trade with a light position this week, and pay attention to inventory changes during and after the festival [10] - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated weakly. The market participation is affected by exchange policies, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high [11] - The production capacity of domestic alumina is decreasing, and the balance has improved but the oversupply situation is hard to change. The basis is low, and the futures market maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [6] - The price of industrial silicon is under pressure. The implementation of emission reduction goals and the reduction of polysilicon production may affect supply and demand, and the market sentiment is weak [13] - Iron ore prices fell last week. The supply and demand are relatively loose, with a certain improvement expectation on the margin, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [15] - Coke and coking coal prices oscillated downward. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is at a low level. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range [16][17] - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The supply and demand of both are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and market expectations [18][19] Group 3: Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon industry is in a new round of in - depth adjustment, with the problem of supply - demand mismatch not resolved. The inventory shows a differentiated performance, and the short - term price may oscillate strongly [12] - The price of styrene is affected by factors such as increased production and post - holiday supply uncertainties [26] - The supply of polypropylene, plastic, and propylene is expected to increase, but the pre - holiday supply is tight. The demand is weakening, and the support from the demand side is further reduced [27] - PVC prices declined, with inventory changes and cost support. The export situation is good, and the price is expected to rise. Caustic soda is running weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [28] - PX and PTA prices oscillated with oil prices. There are opportunities for long - positions in PX in the first half of the year, but the current demand is weak, and the processing margin may be under pressure [29] - Ethylene glycol inventory is increasing, and the short - term trend is oscillatory. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the second quarter, but the long - term is under pressure [30] - Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but the downstream orders are weak. Bottle - chip has a certain improvement in processing margin, and there are opportunities for positive spreads in the medium - term [31] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The market expects changes in the soybean production of Brazil and Argentina and the ending inventory of US soybeans. The short - term soybean meal is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35] - The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as macro risks, export expectations, and policies. It is necessary to pay attention to risk control [36] - The price of soybeans oscillated. The policy promotes the improvement of domestic soybean production, and the market supply has increased marginally [37] - Corn futures are expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to risks [38] - The price of live pigs dropped significantly over the weekend, and the supply pressure is high. The price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [39] - The egg price has the power to repair upwards in the first half of 2026. The futures trading strategy is to wait for the low - point of the spot price around the Spring Festival and then configure long - positions [40] - The price of cotton is expected to oscillate. The global supply is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is general [41] - The price of sugar is affected by the production progress in India and Thailand and the production expectations in Guangxi. The short - term price faces pressure [42] - The price of apples oscillated. The market focus is on the demand side, and the high purchase price and strong reluctance to sell may affect the de - stocking speed [43] - The price of wood is at a low level. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is recommended to wait and see [44] - The price of pulp declined last week. The inventory is increasing, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support level [45] Group 5: Others - The container shipping index (European line) oscillated last week. The pre - holiday market is stable, and the post - holiday market has some positive expectations. The near - month contracts are expected to turn to an oscillatory pattern, and the far - month contracts may be under pressure [20] - The A - share market continued to decline with reduced trading volume, and the stock index futures contracts all closed down. The market may recover this week, and there may be structural rotations [46] - The bond market has opportunities under the influence of risk - aversion sentiment. The trend of TL is unclear, while other varieties are relatively strong [47]

| | 操作评级 | 2026年02月04日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铜 | ☆☆☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ななな | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 能 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | なな☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ☆☆☆ | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | なな女 | | | 工业硅 | ななな | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铝】再生铝拟纳入交割，有效缓解原生铝可供交割品偏少的问题，沪铝走弱。终端电池需求偏弱，部分电池 企业提前放假,导致铝锭需求不足,沪铝盘面缺乏有效抵抗,铝价大幅下探,严重侵蚀再生铅利润,再生铝成 产面积扩大,原生铝 ...

2026/2/3 有色金属周度观点 国投期货 研究院有色全属团队 | 序号 | 品种 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 关注M40 60日线点价买槛。1)行情:加速期,上周铜以极端速度基本免现海外投行已上调的年度涨势目标,且价格明显与供求基本面背 | | | | | 离。铜资源溢价已快速降温,短线价格顶部高位可能形成对资金配置交易的阶段性震慑,基本金属交投可能转向基本面。2)国内供 | | | | | 篇:,一季度全球铜精矿供需最紧、TC低位再下调,在北半球春季旺季强弱不能证明、也不能证伪的阶段,资金仍可能依托技术形态,在 | | | | | 关键支撑位重返铜配置领向,同时需要关注国内产业端春节前的备货点价。周一SBL上海铜贴水130元、广东铜贴水扩至265元,洋山铜溢 | | | 1 | 把 | 价反弹回39美元,SM七地库存升至33万吨。高硫酸价格支持下,国内饰厂1月仍以稳健增产为主。倾向铜材类产品1-2月开工率明显低于 | | | | | 去年同期相对高开工水平。反映在沪铜价差上,长线叙事驱动与供需弱现实强化正向市场结构。3》海外:方铜 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information available in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical premium in the crude oil market has been significantly reversed, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently in the near future due to the uncertainty of US - Iran negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. - Precious metals have entered a consolidation phase, and it is advisable to wait for the volatility to decline [3]. - Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels before the spring consumption in the Northern Hemisphere is falsified, but may decline around the Spring Festival [4]. - Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and the performance of pre - holiday inventory is worse than in previous years [5]. - The prices of most commodities are influenced by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment, showing different trends of rise, fall, or oscillation [2 - 47]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: The US - Iran situation eases, leading to a sharp reversal of geopolitical premium. Brent and WTI futures fall to $66/barrel and $62/barrel respectively, and SC to 450 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Affected by the decline in market sentiment, strengthening of the US dollar, and rising expectations of US - Iran peace talks, oil products weaken. High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than crude oil, and the high - sulfur > low - sulfur pattern may continue [20]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the decline of crude oil but with a limited range. Supply pressure is limited, and consumption improves year - on - year. The search for alternative crude oil supports the near - month futures contract [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, they showed a weak oscillation. The manufacturing PMI in the US exceeded expectations, and the US dollar continued to rebound. They are in a consolidation phase, and it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The selling pressure is relatively limited. It is supported by the MA40 moving average. It may oscillate at high levels in Q1, but may decline around the Spring Festival [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, it rebounded slightly. The spot premium and discount decreased, and the inventory increased. The price is under short - term pressure [5]. - **Zinc**: After the previous over - rise, the price corrected rapidly. It may enter a sideways consolidation after testing the cost support [7]. - **Lead**: The risk of soft squeeze in the warehouse is reduced. The demand is weak, and the price may be supported at 16,700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel collapsed. The downstream of stainless steel is cautious in purchasing, and the market sentiment is panicked [8]. - **Tin**: It broke below the MA40 moving average, and may continue to decline to the MA60 [9]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It hit the daily limit down. The market participation is affected by exchange policies. The price may oscillate at high levels, and the short - term uncertainty is high [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The price corrected. The spot manganese ore price decreased slightly. The supply is in excess, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price corrected. The demand has some resilience, and the supply changes little. The price is also affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18]. Chemicals - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price fell to around 47,000 yuan/ton. The industry is trying to curb involution, but the demand boost is limited, and the de - stocking is difficult. The futures price will continue to be under pressure [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang plans to cut production by 50% in February. The downstream demand is also weakening. The short - term price will oscillate [12]. - **Urea**: The spot price is stable with a downward trend. The production is increasing, and the demand from the industrial downstream is weakening. It is expected to oscillate within a range [22]. - **Methanol**: The futures price fell. The overseas device operation rate decreased, and the domestic supply increased. The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The downstream pre - holiday stocking reduced the inventory in East China ports. The supply will increase, and the price may decline after returning to the fundamental trading logic [24]. - **Styrene**: The price is under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [25]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The decline in oil prices weakens the cost support. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is bearish [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost support and export demand. Caustic soda may also oscillate strongly as the cost support strengthens [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the sharp decline in oil prices, the prices fell. There is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling. There is an expectation of improvement in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern in the short - term but is affected by the decline in raw materials. Bottle - chip has some improvement in processing margin, but the long - term capacity pressure exists [30]. Building Materials - **Glass**: It oscillated strongly at night. There is a risk of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, but the current valuation is low, and it may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [31]. - **20 - Number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The price of rubber raw materials in Thailand fell. The supply is decreasing, but the inventory is increasing. The demand is average, and the market sentiment is weak [32]. - **Soda Ash**: It oscillated widely. The inventory is increasing, and the supply is at a high level. It is under long - term supply - demand surplus pressure [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The market is weak. Brazilian soybean harvesting is in the early stage, and the yield is expected to be a record high. US soybeans may be further pressured. The domestic soybean crushing volume will decrease in February [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The rise of oils is driven by macro - factors. After the macro - risk premium is reversed, they are adjusting rapidly [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The import of Australian rapeseed will ease the supply pressure in the future. The supply is expected to be looser, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [36]. - **Soybean No.1**: It is affected by the macro - market adjustment. It is necessary to pay attention to the macro - market guidance [37]. - **Corn**: The national grain sales progress is close to 60%. The price is declining, and the trading is dull before the Spring Festival. The futures price may oscillate weakly [38]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is adjusting strongly at the beginning of the month, while the futures price is weak. There is a risk of a second bottom - finding for the pig price in the medium - to - long - term [39]. - **Eggs**: The pre - holiday high of the spot price has passed, and it will be weak after the Spring Festival. There is an upward momentum for the egg price in the first half of 2026. The futures trading strategy is to wait for the low - point and then buy [40]. - **Cotton**: The short - term trend may oscillate. The overall supply and sales are booming, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream demand [41]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the production progress in India and Thailand varies. Domestically, the market focuses on the production volume difference. The short - term price faces pressure [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillates. The pre - holiday inventory is in the peak period, and it is necessary to pay attention to the demand [43]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing. The low inventory supports the price [44]. - **Pulp**: The price is falling. The downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes declined significantly. The short - term adjustment is mainly due to the release of profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical events and market risk - preference changes [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 30 - year treasury bond futures led the rise. The strategy is to continue the box - type oscillation, and pay attention to the curve - steepening and flattening opportunities [47].

| | 操作评级 | 2026年02月02日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | な女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | な女女 | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 上周铜以极端速度基本兑现海外投行已上调的年度涨势目标，价格明显与供求基本面背离。目前，铜资源溢价 已快速降温，基本面角度，一季度全球铜精矿供需最紧、TC低位再下调，在北半球春季旺季强弱不能证 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | な女女 | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业等 | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | ☆☆☆ | | | 多晶硅 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周五沪铜减仓跌至MA20日均线,关注波幅收窄情况。SMM现铜104410元,上海铜贴水150元,现货价差已转为国 内高于LME、LME高于美盘的特点。国内节前刚性备货,社库咯减至32.28万 ...

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Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Night session oil prices declined due to geopolitical easing and EIA data showing inventory accumulation [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals were strong as Trump's statements disrupted global order [2] Copper - Overnight LME copper oscillated and rose at the end, with inventory increases and a suggestion of short - selling [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate, with inventory changes and a support level at 23,800 yuan [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It followed SHFE aluminum, with low market activity and cost increases in some areas [5] Alumina - Domestic alumina had over - supply, with cost drops and a weak outlook [6] Zinc - High overseas gas prices supported zinc prices, but weak domestic demand limited the rebound [7] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel oscillated at a high level, while stainless steel faced challenges in high - level transactions [9] Tin - Overnight tin prices oscillated at a high level, affected by precious metals and with inventory changes [9] Lithium Carbonate - It oscillated at a high level, with weak downstream acceptance and slow inventory reduction [10] Industrial Silicon - Futures were driven by supply contraction expectations, but demand was weakening [11] Polysilicon - It showed a strong trend, with potential price increases due to supply cuts and downstream demand [12] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur followed crude oil down, while high - sulfur remained strong, affected by geopolitical factors [20] Asphalt - Cost supported asphalt, but weak demand led to an expected oscillatory - strong trend [21] Group 2: Ferrous Metals and Related Products Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - Night session steel prices rebounded slightly, with inventory and demand changes [13] Iron Ore - The overnight iron ore market oscillated, with supply and demand factors in balance [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Both showed slight rebounds, with carbon supply abundance and downstream pressure [15][16] Manganese Silicon - Prices rebounded slightly, with manganese ore price increases and demand changes [17] Silicon Iron - Prices rebounded, affected by policies and with changes in supply and demand [18] Group 3: Chemicals Urea - Futures prices were oscillating strongly, with production and demand changes [22] Methanol - The market was oscillating, with inventory and demand factors [23] Pure Benzene - Night session prices rose significantly, with supply reduction and demand increase [24] Styrene - Supply was tight, with good sales and export support [25] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene supply was tight, while polyethylene and polypropylene had different supply - demand situations [26] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC was oscillating strongly, and caustic soda had high - inventory and high - production issues [27] PX and PTA - They continued to rise, with different outlooks in the short and medium - term [28] Ethylene Glycol - Production and demand decreased, with a long - term pressure and short - term improvement expectation [29] Short Fibre and Bottle Chip - Short - fibre prices followed raw materials, and bottle - chip had capacity pressure [30] Group 4: Building Materials Glass - Inventory might increase, with low valuation and potential supply changes [31] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - Rubber supply decreased, inventory increased, and the strategy was to go long on rebounds [32] Soda Ash - It faced supply - demand surplus, with a short - term follow - macro and long - term short - selling strategy [33] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans were affected by policies and South American harvests [34] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US policies were positive, and Malaysian palm oil had improved fundamentals [35] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - They might be slightly boosted, but import policies limited the upside [36] Soybean No.1 - Prices rebounded, with attention on policy and spot transactions [37] Corn - Supply was relatively sufficient, and futures were expected to oscillate [38] Live Pigs - Futures rebounded slightly, and prices were expected to have a low point next year [39] Eggs - Futures rose significantly, and the long - term strategy was to buy on dips [40] Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton was oscillating, with inventory and demand factors [41] Sugar - International and domestic production differences affected prices, with short - term pressure [42] Apples - Futures were oscillating, with attention on demand and inventory removal [43] Wood - Prices were low, supported by low inventory [44] Pulp - Futures rose slightly, with inventory and demand factors, and a light - long strategy [45] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - share indexes rose, with different performances in futures contracts, and a complex outlook [46] Treasury Bonds - Futures slightly declined, and a short - short - bond strategy was suggested [47] Group 7: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot prices were expected to decline, and futures were likely to oscillate [19]