金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 11 月 19 日 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4568.19 | ↓0.65 | | 4201.5 | | | | | | IF2511 | 4569.6 | ↓0.44 | 1.41 | 329.1 | 23964 | ↓2192 | 33649 | ↓3588 | | IF2512 | 4555 | ↓0.41 | -13.19 | 1046.1 | 76476 | ↑6725 | 158826 | ↑4718 | | IF2603 | 4523 | ↓0.51 | -45.19 | 205.4 | 15119 | ↑1162 | ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View On November 13, 2025, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose. However, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined on this trading day, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Additionally, the total positions of all four major stock index futures decreased. [1][2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4702.07, up 1.21%. Among its futures contracts, IF2511 closed at 4693.6, up 1.07% with a basis of -8.47; IF2512 closed at 4677, up 1.06% with a basis of -25.07; IF2603 closed at 4645.8, up 1.00% with a basis of -56.27; IF2606 closed at 4601.4, up 1.01% with a basis of -100.67. [1] - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The SSE 50 index closed at 3073.67, up 0.96%. Among its futures contracts, IH2511 closed at 3072.6, up 0.81% with a basis of -1.07; IH2512 closed at 3068.8, up 0.81% with a basis of -4.87; IH2603 closed at 3064, up 0.83% with a basis of -9.67; IH2606 closed at 3059.6, up 0.99% with a basis of -14.07. [1] - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The CSI 500 index closed at 7355.29, up 1.55%. Among its futures contracts, IC2511 closed at 7335.4, up 1.63% with a basis of -19.89; IC2512 closed at 7269, up 1.71% with a basis of -86.29; IC2603 closed at 7087.4, up 1.64% with a basis of -267.89; IC2606 closed at 6885.4, up 1.61% with a basis of -469.89. [1] - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 7590.58, up 1.39%. Among its futures contracts, IM2511 closed at 7566, up 1.60% with a basis of -24.58; IM2512 closed at 7478.4, up 1.67% with a basis of -112.18; IM2603 closed at 7246, up 1.60% with a basis of -344.58; IM2606 closed at 7012, up 1.57% with a basis of -578.58. [1] b) Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF decreased by 8821 lots, IH decreased by 1184 lots, IC decreased by 13405 lots, and IM decreased by 29092 lots. [2] - **Positions**: The total positions of IF decreased by 13919 lots, IH decreased by 1167 lots, IC decreased by 19353 lots, and IM decreased by 20677 lots. [2] c) Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2511, long positions decreased by 3207 lots and short positions decreased by 2753 lots; for IF2512, long positions decreased by 4944 lots; for IF2603, long positions decreased by 1419 lots and short positions decreased by 1558 lots; for IF2606, long positions decreased by 8 lots and short positions increased by 70 lots. [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2511, long positions decreased by 194 lots and short positions increased by 64 lots; for IH2512, long positions decreased by 1093 lots and short positions decreased by 442 lots; for IH2603, long positions decreased by 14 lots and short positions decreased by 96 lots. [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2511, long positions decreased by 4850 lots and short positions decreased by 4795 lots; for IC2512, long positions decreased by 8355 lots; for IC2603, long positions decreased by 179 lots and short positions decreased by 568 lots; for IC2606, long positions decreased by 451 lots and short positions decreased by 673 lots. [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2511, long positions decreased by 5732 lots and short positions decreased by 5208 lots; for IM2512, long positions decreased by 5868 lots and short positions decreased by 6259 lots; for IM2603, long positions decreased by 1923 lots and short positions decreased by 2516 lots. [5] d) Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1. [6] - **Important Drivers**: The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference, and the spokesperson mentioned the results of the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including agricultural product trade. The US government ended its 43 - day shutdown after the President signed a temporary appropriation bill. China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. China's CSRC Chairman Wu Qing visited financial regulatory authorities in France and Brazil and had discussions with international institutional investors. The A - share market opened lower and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.73% to 4029.5 points, a ten - year high. [6][7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index futures are oscillating and waiting for the post - session meeting communiqué [3] - On October 22, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures declined. The trading volume and positions of stock index futures decreased, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm has cooled down [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing price of CSI 300 was 4592.57, down 0.33%. The closing prices of IF2511, IF2512, IF2603, and IF2606 were 4574, 4563.4, 4537, and 4500.2 respectively, all down. The trading volume and positions of most contracts decreased [1] - **IH Series**: The closing price of SSE 50 was 3010.1, up 0.09%. The closing prices of IH2511, IH2512, IH2603, and IH2606 were 3003.6, 3005.6, 3005.2, and 3004.4 respectively, mostly down. The trading volume and positions of most contracts decreased [1] - **IC Series**: The closing price of CSI 500 was 7128.48, down 0.80%. The closing prices of IC2511, IC2512, IC2603, and IC2606 were 7065, 7011.6, 6849, and 6683 respectively, mostly down. The trading volume and positions of most contracts decreased [1] - **IM Series**: The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7312.21, down 0.43%. The closing prices of IM2511, IM2512, IM2603, and IM2606 were 7237.2, 7163.2, 6947.2, and 6736 respectively, all down. The trading volume and positions of most contracts decreased [1] 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: IF's total trading volume decreased by 25,532 lots, IH's by 6344 lots, IC's by 36,408 lots, and IM's by 50,712 lots [2] - **Positions**: IF's total positions decreased by 9453 lots, IH's by 2835 lots, IC's by 12,637 lots, and IM's by 13,666 lots [2] 3.3 Positions of the Top 20 Members - The long and short positions of most contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, but the data for some contracts (e.g., IF2606) were not announced [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - **Important Drivers**: Trump said that China and the US would reach an agreement on trade issues at the APEC summit next week, but the two heads of state may not meet. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62%, etc. A - share trading volume hit a new low at 1.69 trillion yuan [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - On October 20, all the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF increased by 0.5%, IH by 0.3%, IC by 0.73%, and IM by 0.47%. The total trading volume of stock index futures declined on this trading day, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Futures**: The closing prices of IF2511, IF2512, IF2603 rose, while IF2606 fell. The total trading volume decreased by 57144 lots, and the total positions decreased by 8343 lots. The multi - and short - order positions of some contracts decreased, with IF2512 having a multi - order net change of - 8401 and a short - order net change of - 7350 [2][3][6] - **IH Futures**: The closing prices of IH2511, IH2512, IH2603, IH2606 rose. The total trading volume decreased by 36593 lots, and the total positions decreased by 8030 lots. The multi - and short - order positions of some contracts decreased, with IH2512 having a multi - order net change of - 6902 and a short - order net change of - 6989 [2][3][6] - **IC Futures**: The closing prices of IC2511, IC2512, IC2603 rose, while IC2606 fell. The total trading volume decreased by 37567 lots, and the total positions decreased by 3371 lots. The multi - and short - order positions of some contracts decreased, with IC2512 having a multi - order net change of - 7960 and a short - order net change of - 8101 [2][3][6] - **IM Futures**: The closing prices of IM2511, IM2512, IM2603 rose, while IM2606 fell. The total trading volume decreased by 62630 lots, and the total positions decreased by 9885 lots. The multi - and short - order positions of some contracts decreased, with IM2512 having a multi - order net change of - 15080 and a short - order net change of - 16587 [2][3][6] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8] 3. Important Drivers - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee started in Beijing on the morning of October 20. Sino - US negotiations are about to resume. The GDP in the first three quarters of China increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%. A - share trading volume was 1.75 trillion yuan, the lowest since August 8 [9]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - On October 12, all four major index futures contracts for the current month declined. The trading volume of index futures increased, indicating a rise in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 26,302, 14,217, 14,916, and 19,721 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, and IM increased by 1,506, 2,170, and 3,851 lots respectively, while the total positions of IC decreased by 8,282 lots [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF2510, IF2511, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4,613.8, 4,600.4, 4,592.2, and 4,571.8 respectively, with declines of 2.08%, 2.19%, 2.18%, and 2.16%. The trading volumes were 43,832, 5,422, 96,227, and 16,669 lots respectively, with increases of 3,683, 734, 17,523, and 4,362 lots. The positions were 51,030, 9,132, 162,971, and 55,448 lots respectively, with changes of -3,181, +1,427, -329, and +3,589 lots [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH2510, IH2511, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2,976, 2,973.6, 2,975.8, and 2,974 respectively, with declines of 1.55%, 1.61%, 1.60%, and 1.65%. The trading volumes were 20,378, 3,053, 43,708, and 6,794 lots respectively, with increases of 3,496, 1,276, 7,696, and 1,749 lots. The positions were 21,085, 3,090, 67,688, and 13,880 lots respectively, with changes of +13, +793, +840, and +524 lots [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC2510, IC2511, IC2512, and IC2603 were 7,382, 7,311.2, 7,266, and 7,100.6 respectively, with declines of 1.98%, 2.15%, 2.24%, and 2.36%. The trading volumes were 39,765, 10,064, 99,771, and 20,790 lots respectively, with increases of 1,945, 861, 10,965, and 1,145 lots. The positions were 50,530, 18,841, 140,200, and 50,503 lots respectively, with changes of -6,184, +3,029, -3,614, and -1,513 lots [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM2510, IM2511, IM2512, and IM2603 were 7,514.2, 7,421.8, 7,340.4, and 7,120 respectively, with declines of 1.37%, 1.56%, 1.71%, and 1.78%. The trading volumes were 53,416, 15,411, 140,881, and 23,742 lots respectively, with changes of +5,073, +5,979, +9,445, and -776 lots. The positions were 70,956, 22,199, 183,267, and 80,505 lots respectively, with changes of -2,937, +6,387, +1,106, and -498 lots [1]. 2. Top 20 Member Positions Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2510, long positions decreased by 1,609 lots and short positions decreased by 2,104 lots. For IF2511, the net change in long positions was +920 lots and the net change in short positions was -1,346 lots. For IF2512, long positions decreased by 275 lots and short positions decreased by 2,363 lots. For IF2603, long positions increased by 2,804 lots and short positions increased by 3,121 lots [5]. - **IH Contracts**: For IH2510, long positions increased by 1,058 lots and short positions increased by 68 lots. For IH2512, the net change in long positions was +806 lots and the net change in short positions was +1,227 lots [5]. - **IC Contracts**: For IC2510, long positions decreased by 4,223 lots and short positions decreased by 5,437 lots. For IC2511, long positions increased by 2,334 lots and short positions increased by 2,608 lots. For IC2512, the net change in long positions was -4,290 lots and the net change in short positions was -8,424 lots. For IC2603, long positions decreased by 996 lots and short positions decreased by 1,266 lots [5]. - **IM Contracts**: For IM2510, long positions decreased by 1,446 lots and short positions decreased by 2,579 lots. For IM2511, the net change in long positions was +4,551 lots and the net change in short positions was +2,509 lots [5]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. 4. Important Drivers - US stock futures opened higher by more than 1%, with the S&P 500 index futures rising 1.1% and the Nasdaq futures rising 1.4%. Brent crude oil futures rose more than 1% at the beginning of the session, and market concerns about trade issues eased [6]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's threat of imposing a 100% tariff on China's rare - earth exports. China is not afraid of a tariff war and urges the US to correct its wrong actions [6]. 5. Market Performance - Affected by factors such as the intensification of the trade war and the continuous US government shutdown, US and European stock markets closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 2%, the S&P 500 index fell more than 2.5%, the Nasdaq fell more than 3.5%, and the German DAX index and the French CAC40 index fell about 1.5%. Crude oil and copper prices dropped, while the US dollar index fell more than 0.5%. US Treasury bonds and gold prices rose [7]. - The A - share market opened low and closed low. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% to 3,897.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.7%, the ChiNext Index fell 4.55%, the North - bound 50 Index fell 1.24%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 5.61%, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.64%, the Wind A500 Index fell 2.08%, and the CSI A500 Index fell 2.29%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 2.53 trillion yuan, compared with 2.67 trillion yuan the previous day [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On September 17, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose, with IF up 0.8%, IH up 0.2%, IC up 1.26%, and IM up 1.25%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The trends of different contracts in terms of trading volume, open interest, basis, and positions of the top 20 member institutions vary. The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, while those of IC and IM are 1.68850. Important drivers include diplomatic news, Fed's interest - rate cut, and the performance of the A - share market [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 8,988 lots, IH by 5,233 lots, IC by 2,247 lots, and IM by 23,931 lots. The total open interest of IF decreased by 2,680 lots, IH increased by 4,021 lots, IC decreased by 10,820 lots, and IM decreased by 579 lots [2]. - **Closing Price and Basis**: For example, the closing price of IF2509 was 4,553.2 with a basis of - 2.18 points; the closing price of IH2509 was 2,956.2 with a basis of 3.42 points; the closing price of IC2509 was 7,252.4 with a basis of - 7.64 points; the closing price of IM2509 was 7,547 with a basis of - 7.81 points [1]. - **Positions of the Top 20 Member Institutions**: The changes in long and short positions of different contracts vary. For instance, in IF2509, long positions decreased by 12,990 and short positions decreased by 13,237 [6]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, and those of IC and IM are 1.68850. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7]. 3.3 Important Drivers - Diplomatic news: Regarding Sino - US high - level interactions and the TikTok ban, relevant departments have provided information [7]. - Fed's Interest - Rate Cut: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, emphasizing employment downside risks and expecting two more cuts this year [7]. - A - Share Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3,876.34 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%. The A - share market had a total trading volume of 2.4 trillion yuan, up from 2.37 trillion yuan the previous day [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On September 2, the closing prices of the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends, with IF down 0.72%, IH up 0.35%, IC down 1.8%, and IM down 1.85%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total positions of all contracts also increased. The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On September 2, the closing price of CSI 300 was 4490.45, down 0.74%; IF2509 was 4481.2, down 0.72%. The closing price of SSE 50 was 2992.88, up 0.39%; IH2509 was 2992.8, up 0.35%. The closing price of CSI 500 was 6961.69, down 2.09%; IC2509 was 6896.2, down 1.80%. The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7313.88, down 2.50%; IM2509 was 7251.4, down 1.85% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: On the trading day, the total trading volume of IF increased by 51,069 lots, IH by 26,017 lots, IC by 46,175 lots, and IM by 85,941 lots. The total positions of IF increased by 21,717 lots, IH by 12,783 lots, IC by 18,794 lots, and IM by 26,043 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of IF2509 was -9.25, IH2509 was -0.08, IC2509 was -65.49, and IM2509 was -62.48 [1]. - **Top 20 Member Position Changes**: The top 20 members' long - position and short - position changes varied among different contracts. For example, in IF2509, the long - position increased by 8,797 lots and the short - position by 7,564 lots [5]. 3.2. Trend Strength The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.3. Important Drivers - **Overseas Market**: The Nasdaq fell 1.7%, with chip stocks leading the decline. The yields of long - term bonds soared, and the price of gold broke through the $3,500 mark. The three major US stock indexes opened lower, with the Dow down 0.9%, the S&P 500 down 1.25%, and the Nasdaq down 1.7%. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August continued to contract for the sixth consecutive month, but new orders improved and the price index declined again [6]. - **Domestic Market**: In August, the central bank's MLF had a net investment of 300 billion yuan, PSL had a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase in the open market had a net investment of 300 billion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3,858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.85%. The A - share trading volume was 2.91 trillion yuan, up from 2.78 trillion yuan the previous day. Most sectors performed poorly, with only a few sectors such as banks, reducers, and gold showing strength [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On August 13, all the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF increased by 0.97%, IH by 0.33%, IC by 1.57%, and IM by 1.63% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 23,189 lots, IH by 9,330 lots, IC by 27,828 lots, and IM by 55,257 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 10,150 lots, IH by 6,610 lots, IC by 11,324 lots, and IM by 32,273 lots [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On August 13, the closing prices of various stock index futures and their underlying indexes showed different increases. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4,176.58, up 0.79%; IF2508 closed at 4,181.2, up 0.97% [1] - **Basis**: Different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM had different basis values. For example, the basis of IF2508 was 4.62, and that of IF2509 was -5.78 [1] - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: The trading volume and turnover of each contract also varied. For example, the turnover of IF2509 was 929.2 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 74,450 lots [1] - **Position Changes**: The positions of each contract changed. For example, the position of IF2508 decreased by 5,986 lots, while that of IF2509 increased by 11,069 lots [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3. Important Drivers - The central bank announced that at the end of July, China's broad - money (M2) balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; narrow - money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6%; currency in circulation (M0) balance was 13.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8%. In the first seven months, the net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. The A - share trading volume throughout the day was 2.18 trillion yuan, reaching the second - highest level this year. The market volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index had an eight - day consecutive increase [6] 4. Positions of the Top 20 Members in Futures - The positions of the top 20 members in different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed. For example, in IF2508, the long positions decreased by 4,663 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4,513 lots [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for index futures is "shockingly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On August 11, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. The trading volume of index futures increased, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm has warmed up. The total positions of all types of index futures also increased [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and its Futures**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4122.51, up 0.43%. Among its futures contracts, IF2508 closed at 4116, up 0.37% with a basis of - 6.51; IF2509 closed at 4104.8, up 0.43% with a basis of - 17.71; IF2512 closed at 4075.2, up 0.48% with a basis of - 47.31; IF2603 closed at 4044.6, up 0.56% with a basis of - 77.91 [1] - **SSE 50 and its Futures**: The SSE 50 index closed at 2789.9, up 0.03%. Among its futures contracts, IH2508 closed at 2788.4, up 0.01% with a basis of - 1.5; IH2509 closed at 2789.4, up 0.01% with a basis of - 0.5; IH2512 closed at 2791, up 0.06% with a basis of 1.1; IH2603 closed at 2790.4, up 0.10% with a basis of 0.5 [1] - **CSI 500 and its Futures**: The CSI 500 index closed at 6391.76, up 1.08%. Among its futures contracts, IC2508 closed at 6368.2, up 1.02% with a basis of - 23.56; IC2509 closed at 6298.8, up 1.07% with a basis of - 92.96; IC2512 closed at 6144.6, up 1.18% with a basis of - 247.16; IC2603 closed at 6006, up 1.20% with a basis of - 385.76 [1] - **CSI 1000 and its Futures**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 6943.94, up 1.55%. Among its futures contracts, IM2508 closed at 6925.6, up 1.56% with a basis of - 18.34; IM2509 closed at 6851.2, up 1.61% with a basis of - 92.74; IM2512 closed at 6663.8, up 1.72% with a basis of - 280.14; IM2603 closed at 6478.8, up 1.71% with a basis of - 465.14 [1] 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 29586 lots, IH increased by 9620 lots, IC increased by 23858 lots, and IM increased by 55757 lots [2] - **Positions**: The total positions of IF increased by 14212 lots, IH increased by 6800 lots, IC increased by 9202 lots, and IM increased by 25544 lots [2] 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - For IF, the long - position changes of different contracts varied, such as 623 lots for IF2508, 8267 lots for IF2509, etc. The short - position changes also differed, like 1360 lots for IF2508 [5] - For IH, the long - position changes included 557 lots for IH2508, 3754 lots for IH2509, etc. The short - position changes were also distinct [5] - For IC, the long - position changes were - 549 lots for IC2508, 5137 lots for IC2509, etc. The short - position changes were also different [5] - For IM, the long - position changes were 1995 lots for IM2508, 11368 lots for IM2509, etc. The short - position changes were also distinct [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - **Important Drivers**: Before the US CPI data, the market was cautious. The Nasdaq rose and then fell. Lithium mining stocks soared, and gold was under pressure. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%. The market was active with more than 4000 stocks rising [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that on August 7, the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends. The overall trading volume of stock index futures increased, indicating a rise in investors' trading enthusiasm. The report also presents data on price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and the position changes of the top 20 members of the futures contracts, along with information on trend strength and important economic drivers [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Index and Spot Data Tracking - **Index Futures Price and Change**: On August 7, the closing prices of the four major stock indexes showed different trends. The CSI 300 rose 0.03% to 4,114.67, the SSE 50 rose 0.03% to 2,798.31, the CSI 500 fell 0.31% to 6,337.54, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.01% to 6,862.15. Among the corresponding futures contracts, IF2508 fell 0.07%, IH2508 fell 0.01%, IC2508 fell 0.50%, and IM2508 fell 0.18% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of all four major stock index futures increased. IF increased by 19,361 lots, IH by 11,776 lots, IC by 15,809 lots, and IM by 19,113 lots. The total open interest also increased, with IF up 7,431 lots, IH up 2,077 lots, IC up 3,443 lots, and IM up 4,114 lots [1][2]. 3.2 Basis Data The report provides the basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM from July 14 to August 7, showing the basis changes of the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [4]. 3.3 Position Changes of Top 20 Members The report shows the long and short position changes of the top 20 members of each futures contract. For example, in the IF contracts, the long positions of IF2508 and IF2509 increased by 2,185 and 4,996 lots respectively, and the short positions increased by 1,562 and 3,282 lots respectively [5]. 3.4 Trend Strength The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers In July, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 8% year - on - year (previous value: 7.2%), imports increased by 4.8% (previous value: 2.4%), and the trade surplus was 705.1 billion yuan (previous value: 825.8 billion yuan). In US dollars, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year (previous value: 5.9%), imports increased by 4.1% (previous value: 1.1%), and the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars (previous value: 114.75 billion US dollars). In the first seven months, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [6]. 3.6 Stock Market Performance The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.85 trillion yuan, up from 1.76 trillion yuan the previous day. The rare earth permanent magnet concept led to a warming of cyclical stocks, and the military stocks maintained their popularity. The rare earth permanent magnet, rare earth, and IGBT concepts led the gains, while three pharmaceutical sub - sectors, CRO, weight - loss drugs, and innovative drugs, led the decline [7].