1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term geopolitical disturbances for LPG are relatively strong, and the demand for propylene provides strong support, keeping the spot price at a high level [1]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For LPG (PG): - On 2026/1/28, the closing price of PG2602 was 4,338 with a daily increase of 1.10%, and the night - session closing price was 4,330 with a decrease of 0.18%. The trading volume was 738, a decrease of 161 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,350, a decrease of 602. - PG2603 had a closing price of 4,286 with a daily increase of 0.89%, and the night - session closing price was 4,289 with an increase of 0.07%. The trading volume was 77,168, a decrease of 36,545, and the open interest was 92,829, a decrease of 2,844. - PG2604 had a closing price of 4,566 with a daily increase of 1.11%, and the night - session closing price was 4,564 with a decrease of 0.04%. The trading volume was 22,979, a decrease of 2,343, and the open interest was 66,229, an increase of 1,704 [1]. - For propylene (PL): - On 2026/1/28, the closing price of PL2602 was 6,155 with a daily increase of 0.87%, and the night - session closing price was 6,171 with an increase of 0.26%. The trading volume was 125, a decrease of 524, and the open interest was 2,204, a decrease of 1. - PL2603 had a closing price of 6,281 with a daily increase of 0.53%, and the night - session closing price was 6,294 with an increase of 0.21%. The trading volume was 22,962, an increase of 4,075, and the open interest was 9,682, a decrease of 2,478. - PL2604 had a closing price of 6,335 with a daily increase of 0.73%, and the night - session closing price was 6,372 with an increase of 0.58%. The trading volume was 10,479, a decrease of 4,386, and the open interest was 9,943, an increase of 994 [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - For LPG (PG): - The price of Shandong civil LPG was 4,410 with no change from the previous day, and the main - contract basis was 124, a decrease of 38. - The price of East China civil LPG was 4,401, an increase of 17, and the main - contract basis was 115, a decrease of 21. - The price of South China civil LPG was 4,850, an increase of 10, and the main - contract basis was 564, a decrease of 28. - The price of Shandong ether - after LPG was 4,370, an increase of 20, and the main - contract basis was 234, a decrease of 18. - The FEI arrival price was 4,807, an increase of 90, and the main - contract basis was 621, an increase of 52. - The price of East China imported LPG was 4,959 with no change, and the main - contract basis was 773, a decrease of 38. - The price of South China imported LPG was 4,970 with no change, and the main - contract basis was 784, a decrease of 38 [1]. - For propylene (PL): - The price of Shandong propylene was 6,400, a decrease of 5, and the main - contract basis was 119, a decrease of 38. - The price of East China propylene was 6,550, an increase of 75, and the main - contract basis was 269, an increase of 42. - The price of South China propylene was 6,275 with no change, and the main - contract basis was 94, a decrease of 33 [1]. 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Start - up - As of 2026/1/23, the PDH start - up rate was 62.25%, a decrease of 10.82 from the previous week. The alkylation start - up rate was 36.2% with no change, and the MTBE start - up rate was 68.01%, an increase of 0.44 [1]. 3.1.4 LPG Shipment Volume - From the United States on 2026/1/28: - The global shipment volume was 31.1, an increase of 22.0 from the previous day. The Asian shipment volume was 21.2, an increase of 12.1. The shipment volume to China was 0.0 with no change, to Japan was 11.6, an increase of 6.9, and to South Korea was 0.0 with no change. - From the Middle East on 2026/1/28: - The global shipment volume was 16.2, an increase of 4.7 from the previous day. The Asian shipment volume was 15.6, an increase of 4.1. The shipment volume to China was 0.0, a decrease of 4.6, to Japan was 0.0 with no change, and to South Korea was 0.0 with no change [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), and 0 represents a neutral state [5]. 3.3 Market Information - On January 28, 2026, the February CP paper - cargo price of propane was 538 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 528 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton. The March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 525 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton [6]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Some maintenance start times are from 2023, and the end times of many are to be determined [7]. - There are also domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, such as those of Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation), Shenchi Chemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou. The normal production volume, loss volume, start time, end time, and maintenance duration are provided [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The supply - side increment continues to suppress the market price of propylene. The supply of propylene remains loose, the demand support is limited, and the cost - side support has weakened. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see until marginal device maintenance occurs [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene main contract closing price is 5647 yuan/ton (-48), East China spot price is 5925 yuan/ton (+0), North China spot price is 5890 yuan/ton (-25), East China basis is 278 yuan/ton (+48), and North China basis is 4 yuan/ton (+15) [1] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Propylene capacity utilization rate is 74% (+0%), China CFR propylene - Japan CFR naphtha is 211 US dollars/ton (+4), and propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 53 US dollars/ton (+6) [1] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Propylene import profit is - 324 yuan/ton (-48) [1] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 37% (-2.62%), production profit is - 160 yuan/ton (+5); epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 76% (+0%), production profit is - 276 yuan/ton (-30); n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 78% (+9%), production profit is 236 yuan/ton (+65); octanol capacity utilization rate is 82% (+5%), production profit is 487 yuan/ton (+18); acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is 343 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 81% (+0%), production profit is - 557 yuan/ton (+44); phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 76% (-4%), production profit is - 927 yuan/ton (+0) [1] V. Propylene Inventory - Propylene factory inventory is 46560 tons (+600) [1]

Group 1 - The international silver price has surged to a historical high, driven by changing market dynamics and strong demand from both industries and investors, marking one of the strongest rebounds in commodities for 2025 [3] - The silver market has experienced a structural shortage for the fifth consecutive year due to limited mining output, while consumption in renewable energy, electronics, and other industrial sectors continues to expand [3] - Analysts suggest that silver has reached its long-term target's minimum threshold, with potential for further increases, aiming for a target range of $75 to $80, contingent on market performance towards the end of the year [3] Group 2 - In the Asian trading session, silver prices rose nearly 3%, approaching $66.00, with the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rising to $63.28, indicating a positive short-term trend [4] - The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69.16, nearing the overbought threshold, suggesting that momentum may weaken before the next upward movement [4] - Maintaining above the 20-period EMA will preserve the upward potential, while a drop below it could shift the bias to a downward trend, making the psychological level of $60.00 vulnerable [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is in a volatile pattern due to the co - existence of supply pressure and geopolitical risks. OPEC+ decided to continue increasing production in December 2025 but pause in Q1 2026. The high inventory and surplus supply are bearish factors, while strong refined - product crack spreads, geopolitical attacks on refineries are bullish factors [1]. - Liquid chemical products faced a significant decline on Monday. Ethylene glycol has a supply - surplus expectation, and the styrene - pure benzene market may continue to decline without major supply cuts or demand surges [2]. - Overall, crude oil will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the chemical supply side still faces significant pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Overseas crack spreads are strong, but domestic refinery profits are under pressure. OPEC+ is more cautious about increasing production, and oil prices may move from the bottom - seeking to the bottom - grinding stage. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Asphalt - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, asphalt futures prices lack support. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: As crude oil weakens, fuel oil futures prices are on the weak side. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decline in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It fluctuates with crude oil. It is supported by the rebound of gasoline and diesel crack spreads but faces negative factors such as weak shipping demand. It is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations with a relatively low valuation [9][10]. Methanol - **View**: Suppressed by the high - inventory reality in the near term, methanol fluctuates downward. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the high inventory still has a suppressing effect, but there is still value in going long at low levels considering potential Iranian disturbances [24]. Urea - **View**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The high inventory restricts the upward space of futures prices, while coal costs provide support [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The expectation of supply surplus suppresses the market, and there is no fundamental positive support. With the return of integrated refineries and concentrated imports, the price is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term under the expectation of inventory accumulation [15][16][17]. PX - **View**: Although some plants are under reform and maintenance, PX supply is not affected. With strong supply and demand, the profit supports the price. It is expected to return to the cost - and - fundamental pricing logic in the short term and maintain range - bound trading [11]. PTA - **View**: The supply - demand drive is limited, the market negotiation fades, and the basis weakens slightly. The price is affected by cost and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium term [11]. Short - Fiber - **View**: There is an expectation of weakening supply and demand, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream cost support is weak, and the downstream demand fails to keep up, so the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **View**: The cost provides no obvious guidance, the volatility narrows, and the trading atmosphere fades. The price follows the cost fluctuations, and the processing fee has stronger support during the factory production - reduction period [21]. Propylene - **View**: The propane CP price is reduced again, and PL is weaker than PP in the short term [29]. PP - **View**: With the decline in maintenance and high inventory pressure, it is expected to trade within a range. The decrease in maintenance leads to an increase in production, and the high - level inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the price [28]. Plastic - **View**: With the short - term decline in maintenance, it is expected to trade within a range. The supply pressure and weak fundamental support limit the price upside, and the profit support is also limited [27]. Styrene - **View**: There is still a concern about inventory swelling, and it fluctuates weakly. Although there are some disturbances in the cost - side pure benzene supply, it cannot reverse the situation, and the subsequent trend depends on crude oil [13]. PVC - **View**: The market sentiment cools down, and it fluctuates weakly. After the end of maintenance in early November, the production will increase, while the downstream demand is weak, and the export is also under pressure [30]. Caustic Soda - **View**: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the cost rises. The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is weak. Attention should be paid to whether low profits can drive upstream production cuts [30]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different contract periods of each variety [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of different varieties are presented, showing the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of goods in storage [33]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, which can be used to analyze the relative price relationships between different chemical products [34]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions the basis and spread monitoring of multiple chemical varieties including methanol, urea, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 5. Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index is 2546.82 (+0.02%), and the industrial product index is 2237.50 (+0.09%) [273]. - **Energy Index**: On November 3, 2025, the energy index was 1178.10, with a daily increase of 1.69%, a 5 - day increase of 0.79%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.81%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.06% [275].

Economic Overview - Shanghai's GDP reached 2.62 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - The city's industrial added value increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with the tertiary sector's added value growing by 5.4%, accounting for 79.1% of GDP [1] - Total fixed asset investment rose by 6.2% year-on-year, with major projects completing 50.9% of their annual plans [1] Consumer Market - Social retail sales in Shanghai grew by 1.7% year-on-year, driven by policies and activities [2] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program directly boosted social consumption by over 54 billion yuan [2] - International tourist arrivals reached 4.248 million, a 38.5% increase year-on-year [2] Trade and Foreign Investment - Total goods import and export volume was 2.15 trillion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 11.1% [2] - Private enterprises' import and export volume grew by 23.6%, accounting for 38.1% of the total [2] - Actual foreign investment in Shanghai decreased by 16.4%, but manufacturing and business services saw significant increases of 48.7% and 47.7% respectively [2] Economic Challenges - The external environment remains uncertain, with challenges such as slowing global economic growth and trade risks [3] - There is a notable issue of insufficient demand, particularly in consumer spending, and increased competition in certain industries [3] - Employment stability is under pressure, with decreased recruitment demand in some sectors [3] Strategic Focus for Development - Shanghai's economic development will focus on five key areas: national strategy, industrial upgrading, demand support, innovation drive, and livelihood security [3] - Plans include accelerating the construction of "five centers" and implementing a new round of "Shanghai Plan" for leading industries [4] - Emphasis on enhancing industrial growth, supporting the transformation of the construction industry, and promoting high-quality development in technology services [4] Innovation and Technology - Shanghai aims to strengthen its international technology innovation center and focus on breakthrough technologies [5] - Plans to enhance the functions of professional incubators and implement high-quality concept verification platforms [5] - Initiatives to cultivate leading technology enterprises and accelerate the development of high-growth companies are in place [5]

Economic Overview - Shanghai's GDP reached 2.62 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - The city's industrial added value increased by 5.1% year-on-year, while the tertiary industry's added value grew by 5.4%, accounting for 79.1% of GDP [1] Investment and Consumption - Total fixed asset investment in Shanghai grew by 6.2% year-on-year, with major projects completing 50.9% of their annual plans [2] - Social retail sales increased by 1.7% year-on-year, with consumption subsidies driving over 54 billion yuan in social consumption [2] - International tourism saw 4.25 million inbound visitors, a 38.5% increase year-on-year [2] Trade Performance - Shanghai's total import and export volume reached 2.15 trillion yuan, growing by 2.4% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 11.1% [2] - Exports to non-U.S. markets rose by 16.1%, and trade with Belt and Road countries, ASEAN, and BRICS members grew by 11.8%, 10.9%, and 16.5% respectively [2] - Private enterprises' imports and exports increased by 23.6%, accounting for 38.1% of the city's total [2] Foreign Investment - Actual foreign investment in Shanghai decreased by 16.4% year-on-year, although manufacturing and business services saw increases of 48.7% and 47.7% respectively [2] - The city added 30 new regional headquarters for multinational companies and 19 foreign R&D centers, totaling 1,046 and 610 respectively [2] Strategic Focus for Future Development - Shanghai's economic development will focus on five key areas: national strategy, industrial upgrading, demand support, innovation-driven growth, and livelihood security [3] - The city plans to enhance its "five centers" construction and implement a new round of pilot programs for service industry expansion [3][4] - Emphasis will be placed on investment in key industries and regions, supporting industrial growth, and promoting high-quality development in technology and service sectors [4][5] Innovation and Technology - Shanghai aims to strengthen its international technology innovation center and focus on cutting-edge and disruptive technologies [5] - Plans include enhancing incubator functions and establishing high-quality concept verification platforms to support the growth of leading technology enterprises [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Recent short - term drivers for caustic soda have significantly slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices. The possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda caused by liquid chlorine disturbances in the future has increased. In the short term, the spot price has rebounded due to low prices stimulating the market's phased replenishment demand, but the sustainability of replenishment may be limited [3]. - In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The previously maintained units in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high [3]. - On the demand side, the support from non - aluminum demand is weak, and the alumina inventory of caustic soda is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish at low prices is strong. Although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline in liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [3]. - Affected by liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation is repaired under the condition of rising costs. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of liquid chlorine on the supply of caustic soda. If there are substantial production cuts or load reductions, a bullish view can be taken [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2380, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 770, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong was converted to the futures price of 2406, and the basis was 26 [1]. Spot News - On July 7, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine at Shandong Xinfa decreased by 150, with an ex - factory price of - 450 yuan, and the liquid chlorine plan for the next day was reported [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The short - term drivers for caustic soda have slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded. The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the replenishment may not be sustainable. The supply pressure is high, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina inventory is high, the export support is good, and the cost has increased due to the decline in liquid chlorine [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4][5]