Economic Overview - Shanghai's GDP reached 2.62 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - The city's industrial added value increased by 5.1% year-on-year, while the tertiary industry's added value grew by 5.4%, accounting for 79.1% of GDP [1] Investment and Consumption - Total fixed asset investment in Shanghai grew by 6.2% year-on-year, with major projects completing 50.9% of their annual plans [2] - Social retail sales increased by 1.7% year-on-year, with consumption subsidies driving over 54 billion yuan in social consumption [2] - International tourism saw 4.25 million inbound visitors, a 38.5% increase year-on-year [2] Trade Performance - Shanghai's total import and export volume reached 2.15 trillion yuan, growing by 2.4% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 11.1% [2] - Exports to non-U.S. markets rose by 16.1%, and trade with Belt and Road countries, ASEAN, and BRICS members grew by 11.8%, 10.9%, and 16.5% respectively [2] - Private enterprises' imports and exports increased by 23.6%, accounting for 38.1% of the city's total [2] Foreign Investment - Actual foreign investment in Shanghai decreased by 16.4% year-on-year, although manufacturing and business services saw increases of 48.7% and 47.7% respectively [2] - The city added 30 new regional headquarters for multinational companies and 19 foreign R&D centers, totaling 1,046 and 610 respectively [2] Strategic Focus for Future Development - Shanghai's economic development will focus on five key areas: national strategy, industrial upgrading, demand support, innovation-driven growth, and livelihood security [3] - The city plans to enhance its "five centers" construction and implement a new round of pilot programs for service industry expansion [3][4] - Emphasis will be placed on investment in key industries and regions, supporting industrial growth, and promoting high-quality development in technology and service sectors [4][5] Innovation and Technology - Shanghai aims to strengthen its international technology innovation center and focus on cutting-edge and disruptive technologies [5] - Plans include enhancing incubator functions and establishing high-quality concept verification platforms to support the growth of leading technology enterprises [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Recent short - term drivers for caustic soda have significantly slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices. The possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda caused by liquid chlorine disturbances in the future has increased. In the short term, the spot price has rebounded due to low prices stimulating the market's phased replenishment demand, but the sustainability of replenishment may be limited [3]. - In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The previously maintained units in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high [3]. - On the demand side, the support from non - aluminum demand is weak, and the alumina inventory of caustic soda is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish at low prices is strong. Although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline in liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [3]. - Affected by liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation is repaired under the condition of rising costs. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of liquid chlorine on the supply of caustic soda. If there are substantial production cuts or load reductions, a bullish view can be taken [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2380, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 770, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong was converted to the futures price of 2406, and the basis was 26 [1]. Spot News - On July 7, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine at Shandong Xinfa decreased by 150, with an ex - factory price of - 450 yuan, and the liquid chlorine plan for the next day was reported [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The short - term drivers for caustic soda have slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded. The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the replenishment may not be sustainable. The supply pressure is high, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina inventory is high, the export support is good, and the cost has increased due to the decline in liquid chlorine [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4][5]