未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 本周复盘总结：九月第四周交强险64.4万辆，环比上周/上月周度+26.7%/+25.0% 。 本周细分板块涨跌幅排序:SＷ商用载货车(+3.8%) > SW乘用车(+2.8%) >SW汽车(+1.7%) =SW汽 车零部件（+1.7%）>SW商用载客车(-1.7%) 。本周已覆盖标的 松原安全、经纬恒润-W、赛力 斯、新泉股份、雅迪控股 涨幅前五。 本周行业核心变化： 1） 特斯拉FSDV14版本发布，模型规模扩大10倍，模型上下文长度扩大3倍；美国市场发布简 版model3和modelY，降配降价（便宜5000美元，应对补贴下降） 2） 小鹏汽车覆盖北非沿海经 济地带，9月交付4.2万辆，同比增长95%，环比+10%； 3） 理想汽车9月交付3.4万辆，同比减 少37%，环比+19%； 4） 文远知行进入阿联酋第三个酋长国哈伊马角，Robotaxi与Robobus开 启试运营； 5） 700辆宇通客车交付土库曼斯坦； 6） 新泉股份提前赎回"新23转债"。 Q4重视AI智能车投资机会 国庆假期汽车行业表现如何？ 美股-港股汽车表现中规中矩。核心大事件：特斯拉三季度交付 ...

Core Insights - The Orson Robot Innovation Park will integrate existing resources from the Olympic Center and the National Speed Skating Hall to create a comprehensive public service platform for robot companies [1] - The initiative aims to provide diverse landing scenarios for robot products, including the deployment of explanatory robots in major tourist attractions, service robots in visitor rest areas, and inspection robots on secondary roads [1] - Future plans include regular hosting of the Chaoyang Robot Carnival, which will combine interactive experiences, technology displays, and cultural consumption to showcase innovative achievements in robotics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bus industry represents China's automotive manufacturing sector becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to create a new market equivalent to China within 3-5 years [4]. Group 1: Driving Factors for the Bus Cycle - Timing: The bus industry aligns with the national strategy of "China's Special Valuation" and is a strong advocate of the "Belt and Road" initiative, leveraging over a decade of international experience to follow national strategies and promote Chinese manufacturing abroad [4]. - Location: The technology and products of the bus industry have reached world-class standards, with China leading in new energy buses and being competitive in traditional buses in terms of cost-effectiveness and service [4]. - Human Factors: The end of the price war in the domestic market is expected to resonate positively, with demand recovering due to tourism and public transport renewal needs, potentially returning to 2019 levels [4]. Group 2: Profitability Outlook for the Bus Industry - The absence of price wars domestically, an oligopolistic market structure, and higher profit margins in overseas markets for both new energy and traditional buses are expected to drive profitability [5]. - The continuous decline in lithium carbonate costs will further support profitability [5]. Group 3: Market Capitalization Potential - The short-term goal is to challenge the market capitalization peak from 2015-2017, while the long-term goal is to establish a new ceiling, witnessing the emergence of a true global bus leader [6]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Yutong Bus is highlighted as a "model student" with high growth and dividend attributes, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 4.63 billion, 5.52 billion, and 6.68 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12%, 19%, and 21% [7]. - King Long Motor is noted as the "fastest improving student," with a significant profit rebound expected, projecting net profits for 2025-2027 at 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 182%, 45%, and 28% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is entering a new crossroads phase, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) dividend and the dawn of intelligent vehicle technology. The company suggests increasing the allocation weight of "dividend style" investments in the second half of 2025 [6][9]. Group 1: Weekly Review - In the first week of August, the compulsory insurance for vehicles reached 375,000 units, showing a week-on-week decrease of 18.8% but a month-on-month increase of 3.6% [12]. - The performance of sub-sectors this week ranked as follows: SW motorcycles and others (+6.9%) > SW auto parts (+3.5%) > SW automobiles (+3.1%) > SW passenger vehicles (+2.1%) > SW commercial cargo vehicles (+1.8%) > SW commercial passenger vehicles (+0.2%) [12]. - The top five stocks covered this week with the highest gains were Yinlun Co., Chuanfeng Power, Junsheng Electronics, Jingwei Hengrun-W, and Naisite [12]. Group 2: Industry Changes - The collaboration between Xiaopeng Motors and Volkswagen has been upgraded, with a joint development of an electronic and electrical architecture that will be integrated into Volkswagen's pure electric vehicle platform in China, as well as its fuel and plug-in hybrid platforms [5]. - Geely Automobile reported a revenue of 77.7 billion yuan for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 28.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.3%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.62 billion yuan, down 60.0% year-on-year and 36.2% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - BAIC Blue Valley's Q2 revenue was 5.744 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 156.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.355 billion yuan [5]. - A strategic partnership was established between Obsidian Light and Horizon Robotics, as well as with Digua Robotics, to promote the intelligence of robots [5]. - Junsheng Electronics has formed a strategic partnership with leading intelligent driving algorithm company Momenta [5]. Group 3: Market Focus - The automotive sector performed well this week, with A-shares showing better performance compared to Hong Kong stocks. The motorcycle sub-sector continued to lead in performance [8]. - The core changes this week included the general performance of domestic demand being average, the upgrade of the Xiaopeng and Volkswagen collaboration, the strategic partnership between Junsheng Electronics and Momenta, and the Q2 performance of Geely and BAIC Blue Valley meeting expectations [8][13]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends increasing the allocation weight of "dividend style" investments in the automotive sector for the second half of 2025 [6][9]. - The main lines for investment include: - **Dividend & Good Pattern**: Buses (Yutong Bus), Heavy Trucks (China National Heavy Duty Truck A-H / Weichai Power), Two-wheelers (Chuanfeng Power / Longxin General), and Auto Parts (Fuyao Glass + Xingyu Co. + Xinquan Co. + Jifeng Co.) [9]. - **AI Intelligentization Main Line**: Preferred stocks in Hong Kong (Xiaopeng Motors-W / Li Auto-W / Xiaomi Group-W) > A-shares (Seres / SAIC Group / BYD); preferred auto parts (Horizon Robotics-W / China Automotive Research / Desay SV / Bertley / Hezhima Intelligent) [9]. - **AI Robotics Main Line**: Preferred auto parts (Top Group + Precision Forging Technology + Fuda Co. + Xusheng Group + Aikedi) [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, suggesting an increase in investment weight towards automotive dividend style configuration for the second half of 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is at a crossroads, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) dividend and the dawn of automotive intelligence. The report suggests that structural opportunities may arise in the second half of 2025 [3][5]. - The report highlights significant partnerships and collaborations, such as the upgrade of the partnership between Xiaopeng and Volkswagen, which will enhance their technology strategy across a broader market [2][3]. - The report anticipates a strong demand for passenger vehicles due to the implementation of scrapping and replacement policies, projecting a retail sales forecast of 23.8 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [50][58]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - In the first week of August, the total number of compulsory insurance for passenger vehicles was 375,000 units, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 18.8% but an increase of 3.6% compared to the previous month [2][49]. - The best-performing sub-sectors included motorcycles and auto parts, with respective increases of 6.9% and 3.5% [2][3]. Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector ranked 6th in performance this week, while the Hong Kong automotive sector ranked 12th [7][9]. - The report notes that the motorcycle sector continues to outperform other segments within the automotive industry [15][20]. Company Performance - Key companies such as Geely Automobile reported a quarterly revenue of 77.7 billion yuan for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 28.4% [2][3]. - The report also mentions strategic collaborations, such as Junsheng Electronics partnering with leading intelligent driving algorithm company Momenta [2][3]. Future Outlook - The report predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 56.4% by 2025, with total sales of new energy passenger vehicles expected to be 1.343 million units [54][58]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic and international demand, forecasting a 15% growth in domestic sales and a 20% growth in export sales for 2025 [58].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is entering a new crossroads phase, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) dividend and the dawn of intelligent driving technology. The recommendation is to increase the allocation weight of "dividend style" investments in the second half of 2025 [6][12]. Group 1: Weekly Review Summary - In the fifth week of July, the compulsory insurance for vehicles reached 462,000 units, with a week-on-week increase of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2% [11]. - The performance ranking of segmented automotive sectors this week is as follows: SW motorcycles and others (+9.6%) > SW automotive parts (+4.5%) > SW automobiles (+2.7%) > SW commercial passenger vehicles (+2.6%) > SW passenger vehicles (-0.7%) > SW commercial freight vehicles (-4.2%) [11][19]. - The top five stocks covered this week include Chunfeng Power, Xinquan Co., Xiaopeng Motors-W, Mingyang Technology, and Hengshuai Co. [11][25]. Group 2: Industry Core Changes - Xiaopeng's new P7 will debut on August 6, featuring design, intelligent cockpit, control range, and intelligent driving assistance, with an expected launch in August [5][11]. - The Li Auto i8 has undergone SKU adjustments and price reductions, standardizing to the max version and reducing prices by 10,000 yuan for max and 20,000 yuan for ultra [5][11]. - The new Wanjie M7 has been announced, adopting the latest family design language with a wheelbase of 3030mm, offering five/six-seat versions and EV/EREV energy types [5][11]. Group 3: Market Focus and Configuration - The A-share automotive market performed well this week, while the Hong Kong automotive sector lagged behind the broader market. The motorcycle segment performed the best [7][12]. - The recommendation is to increase the allocation weight of "dividend style" investments, focusing on buses (Yutong Bus), heavy trucks (China National Heavy Duty Truck Group A-H/Waichai Power), two-wheelers (Chunfeng Power/Lonxin General), and parts (Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Xinquan Co., Jifeng Co.) [12]. - For AI intelligent vehicles, the preference is for Hong Kong stocks (Xiaopeng Motors-W, Li Auto-W, Xiaomi Group-W) over A-shares (Seres, SAIC Group, BYD) [12]. Group 4: Sales and Forecasts - The total number of passenger vehicles insured this week was 462,000, with a week-on-week increase of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2%. New energy vehicles accounted for 245,000 units, with a penetration rate of 53.1% [47]. - The forecast for 2025 indicates a total retail sales volume of 2,369,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [48][49]. - The expected sales volume for heavy trucks in 2025 is 750,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 24.9% [53].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 26% year over year to $592 million, driven by solid progress across 46 systems in deployment and expansion of operational systems [12][10] - Net loss for the third quarter was $32 million compared to a loss of $27 million in the previous year [12] - Adjusted EBITDA was $45 million, significantly up from $3 million in the previous year [12] - Backlog remained strong at $22.4 billion, slightly down from $22.7 billion last quarter due to revenue recognized [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Software revenue more than doubled year over year to $8.1 million, while operational services revenue grew 54% year over year to $24.9 million [15] - System gross margin showed significant year-over-year improvement due to strong cost control and project execution [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company processed over 6.5 million cases in a single day, indicating strong operational throughput [6] - Customer response to the next-generation storage structure has been very positive, with projects signed in the fiscal third quarter [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving innovation across its technology stack, including the introduction of a next-generation storage structure that increases storage density and reduces on-site assembly parts by over 90% [9][10] - The new structure is expected to enhance scalability and accelerate deployment across various supply chain aspects [9] - The company aims to unlock higher margins and long-term value creation through its innovative product offerings [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates an adjustment in the timing of several previously planned deployments to support the transition to the next-generation storage structure, which may moderate growth in the near term [20] - For fiscal 2025, the company expects revenue between $590 million and $610 million and adjusted EBITDA between $45 million and $49 million [21] Other Important Information - The company has a healthy balance sheet with cash and equivalents of $778 million, down from $955 million in the previous quarter [16] - The transition to a new CFO, Izzy Martins, is set to take place on August 9, 2025 [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you quantify the next-generation storage technology in terms of installation times and retrofit opportunities? - Management does not expect Walmart to retrofit existing systems but believes the new structure will allow for smaller projects and additional capabilities [26][27] Question: What is the expected growth trajectory for new starts? - New starts are expected to step up again now that the design is commercially available, with a historical average of mid to high single-digit new starts [90] Question: What are the implications of the new storage structure on cost and margins? - The new structure is expected to save customers money due to reduced space requirements while allowing the company to achieve higher margins [37] Question: How does the company view the competitive environment? - Management is aware of new technologies but feels confident in their market position and expects to grow market share [69] Question: What is the expected impact of the new storage system on backlog and customer acquisition? - Most new systems going forward are expected to be associated with the next-generation structure, which is anticipated to accelerate customer acquisition [54][55]

Trade and Economic Data - In the first half of the year, China's goods trade import and export reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [1] - China's industrial robot exports grew by 61.5% in the first half of the year, with significant increases in lithium batteries and wind turbine exports, both exceeding 20% growth [3] - China will implement zero tariffs for 53 African countries that have established diplomatic relations, leading to double-digit growth in imports from these nations in the first half of the year [4] Corporate Developments - Amazon plans to expand same-day and next-day delivery services to over 4,000 small cities and rural areas in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a 30% increase in the number of items delivered within these timeframes compared to the previous year [5] - Loongrun has formed a strategic partnership with Uber to deploy thousands of autonomous vehicles globally, enhancing the availability of self-driving services [6] - TEMU aims to have 50% of its orders fulfilled by local merchants in the UK by the end of 2025, currently attracting 22 million users [7][8] - Cainiao's Hong Kong supply chain center has opened to global brands and merchants, providing integrated logistics services [9] Financial Performance - Cross-Border Communication expects a net profit loss of 4 to 7.5 million yuan for the first half of 2025, attributed to reduced promotional investments in its self-operated export platform [10] - Pop Mart anticipates a revenue increase of no less than 200% and a profit growth of no less than 350% for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period last year [11] Market Expansion - Cha Bai Dao has opened its first two stores in Singapore, offering 18 beverage options priced between 2.5 to 6.9 Singapore dollars [12] - Jianlibao has established a regional headquarters in Hong Kong, planning to expand into Southeast Asian markets, including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, while also targeting Australia, Canada, and the U.S. [13]