Group 1: Methanol and Polyolefins Overall - The report is a methanol polyolefins morning report from the energy and chemical team of the research center on September 5, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Methanol Market - The trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but ports will cause continuous backflow impact. The current price is based on inland prices, and the inland situation is crucial later [2] - Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Backflow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2] - Import variables include India's purchase of Iranian products and unplanned maintenance [2] Group 3: Polyethylene Market - Two - oil inventory is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China [3] - External markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increment for now. Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other spreads are volatile, and LD is weakening [3] - September maintenance is flat compared to the previous month. Recently, domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations. New device pressure in 2025 is large, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [3] Group 4: Polypropylene Market - Polypropylene upstream two - oil and mid - stream are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year [3] - Non - standard spreads are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production start - up is stable. Drawstring production scheduling is neutral [3] - Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have a slightly excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3] Group 5: PVC Market - The basis of 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating [3] - Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. Pay attention to production commissioning and export continuity in Q4. Near - term export orders have slightly declined [3] - Coal sentiment is positive, blue - carbon cost is stable, and calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - level caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100 [3] - Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual product outlooks are given, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc. These ratings are based on the expected price movements of the products within the next 2 - 12 weeks, with different definitions for each rating in terms of standard deviations [272]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil has shown a slightly stronger trend recently. Concerns about supply disruptions due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have boosted oil prices, but the overall market is still under supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience. The market expects OPEC+ to maintain the current production policy at the upcoming meeting. Oil prices are likely to oscillate to digest the supply disturbances caused by the Ukraine attacks [1]. - The chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. There is no dominant market logic, and futures prices fluctuate with raw materials and market sentiment. The uncertainty of the commissioning time of chemical plants, especially ethylene glycol plants, increases the difficulty of investment. If the chemical industry rebounds following crude oil, investors can gradually short products with severe over - capacity, such as olefins [2]. - Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating mindset and wait for the implementation of specific policies to address the over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. 3. Summary by Product Category Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela and Trump's changing attitude towards Russia support geopolitical premiums and increase oil price volatility. However, the supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience makes it difficult to reverse the market's oversupply expectation. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to a significant increase in the geopolitical premium of asphalt. - **Main Logic**: The market has refocused on negative factors such as tariff increases and OPEC+增产, but the recent escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to expectations of a supply cut in asphalt raw materials, driving up asphalt futures prices. However, the supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the demand is still not optimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil has increased significantly. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between the US and Venezuela have enhanced the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the increase is limited by the increase in warehouse receipts. The import tariff of fuel oil in China has been raised, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has changed. The three main drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a weakening trend. Geopolitical upgrades are expected to have only a short - term impact on prices [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has followed the increase in crude oil prices. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has oscillated and declined following crude oil. It is facing multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations while maintaining a low valuation [10]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is still an expectation of shutdown in the far - month contract, and the methanol futures price has rebounded. - **Main Logic**: On September 2, the methanol futures price oscillated. The far - month shutdown expectation has caused the futures price to decline first and then rebound significantly. The fundamentals of downstream olefins provide limited support. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for going long in the far - month can be considered [19]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The release of the Indian tender has been postponed, and the market is generally waiting and watching. It is expected to strengthen soon. - **Main Logic**: As of September 2, information on the Indian tender and export policies has not been finalized, and the market is waiting and watching. The futures price has rebounded slightly, and the spot prices in different regions have diverged. The supply is expected to decrease, and the autumn demand is expected to pick up. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender price and subsequent export progress [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The news of commissioning has stimulated the futures market to weaken. - **Main Logic**: The narrow fluctuations of coal and oil prices provide limited cost guidance. The news of the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's ethylene and downstream products has had a negative impact on the market, increasing supply pressure. Although the supply - demand structure shows some signs of weakening, the market is still in the de - stocking cycle, which provides some support [14][15][16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Cost and sentiment fluctuations are still the main driving forces. - **Main Logic**: The commodity sentiment is poor, and PX has continued to decline. The upstream load has remained stable, but the commissioning of aromatic hydrocarbon plants has increased supply pressure. The downstream PTA plants are operating at a low level, and polyester demand is fair. PX is expected to maintain a tight balance, and its price is expected to fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment [11]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: It is oscillating to find support, and cost and sentiment dominate the direction. - **Main Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine issue has stalled, and the crude oil market has been in a stalemate, providing limited guidance. After the hype of upstream plants subsided, the commodity sentiment cooled down, and the spot basis weakened. The downstream polyester sales and production have limited improvement, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. It is expected to seek support downward in the short term, with a limited overall decline [11]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of plant restart, and the quality of demand still needs to be verified. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the absolute price of short - fiber has declined accordingly. The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, the downstream sales and production are mediocre, and the terminal's procurement behavior is cautious. The quality of the peak season still needs to be verified. The absolute value of short - fiber will fluctuate with raw materials and oscillate in the short term [16]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The production cut in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is still seeking support, and the price of polyester bottle chips is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand drive is limited, and the overall order intake has declined in the off - season. The processing margin has no obvious expansion driver and will maintain an oscillating consolidation [17][18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The support from maintenance is limited, and PP is oscillating weakly. - **Main Logic**: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity through plant maintenance has limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating in the short term, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and there is inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. The demand has a peak - off - season switch, and the pipe - making industry's start - up rate has increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [22]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: PL follows the short - term fluctuations of PP. - **Main Logic**: On September 2, PL oscillated. Propylene enterprises' inventories are at a low level, and they are mainly pushing up prices. Downstream factories purchase on demand. The short - term market follows PP fluctuations, and the polypropylene processing fee is the key focus on the market [23]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The performance of peak - season demand is the short - term focus, and plastic is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity and the elimination of South Korean petrochemical capacity have limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. There is still a capital game in the macro - environment, and the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption expectation still exists. The fundamentals of plastic are still under pressure, with high production and inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate and purchasing willingness [21]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price of pure benzene will oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the market expects a tightening supply due to planned maintenance in the Middle East and reduced exports from Russian refineries. However, the increase in imported pure benzene at the port and the return of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry have led to a decline in the price of pure benzene. The demand verification is crucial as the peak season approaches, but the orders of downstream products have not improved significantly [13]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and styrene continues to decline. - **Main Logic**: The decline of styrene is mainly due to the cooling of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry and the black commodity sentiment. Its fundamentals are poor, and it is significantly weaker than other chemical products. The explicit and implicit inventories are high, and the cost support is insufficient. The peak - season demand has not materialized, and the downstream demand is weak. There is some support at the valuation level of 7000 - 7100, but there is no positive driver for a rebound [14][15][16]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak market conditions are suppressing PVC, and it is operating weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with a decline in cost. The production is expected to decline in September due to autumn maintenance, the downstream start - up rate has not changed much, the export expectation is under pressure, and the cost is moving down. The market sentiment is poor, and the inventory is increasing, so the market is expected to operate weakly [25]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and the market is on hold for now. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand for replenishment, improved non - aluminum start - up rates, increased export orders, and a slight decline in production due to maintenance. The spot price has reached a temporary peak, and the market is expected to oscillate due to the expectation of alumina production in the far - month [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of both supply and demand weakening. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen and then fluctuated slightly stronger, but considering that the leading varieties in the black market have started to fluctuate, NR and RU still need to guard against the risk of correction. In the second half of the year, it is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish or neutral approach in the short - term, taking short - long positions on dips and making quick trades. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][12]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has strengthened recently driven by the rebound in the black building materials sector, it will still be under pressure due to the weak fundamental expectations [14]. - For styrene, the short - term geopolitical influence has subsided, and the BZN is expected to recover. It is expected that the styrene price will fluctuate following the cost side [18]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. In July, there are no new capacity investment plans, and the price is expected to remain volatile [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July [21]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue de - stocking. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [23]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in July, and the processing fee is under pressure. The demand side is also under continuous pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the expected inventory reduction at ports will gradually slow down. The valuation is relatively high compared to the same period in history, and the fundamentals are weak. However, due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants and more - than - expected production cuts of domestic plants, it is expected to be strong in the short - term [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On July 17, 2025, the INE main crude oil futures were reported at 517.4 yuan. According to the US EIA weekly data, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels to 422.16 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.91%; the SPR increased by 0.30 million barrels to 402.70 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%; gasoline inventory increased by 3.40 million barrels to 232.87 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%; diesel inventory increased by 4.17 million barrels to 106.97 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.70 million barrels to 20.14 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 7.77%; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.57 million barrels to 44.81 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.28% [1]. - In terms of market prices, the WTI main crude oil futures fell 0.11 dollars, a decline of 0.16%, to 66.64 dollars; the Brent main crude oil futures fell 0.15 dollars, a decline of 0.22%, to 68.71 dollars; the INE main crude oil futures fell 0.80 yuan, a decline of 0.15% [7]. Methanol - On July 16, the 09 contract fell 19 yuan/ton to 2367 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 15. Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level. Enterprises still have good profits. Overseas plants' operating rates have returned to medium - high levels, and the market has gradually digested the impact on the overseas supply side. Market fluctuations have begun to narrow. On the demand side, the olefin plants at ports have reduced their loads, and it is the off - season for traditional demand, with the operating rate declining. After the recent decline in methanol prices, the downstream profits have recovered slightly, but the overall level is still low, and the spot valuation of methanol is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is expected to be limited [4]. Urea - On July 16, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47. The domestic operating rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, and the cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has bottomed out and rebounded. With the start of autumn fertilizer preparation, the operating rate will further increase, which will support the demand for urea. The export container loading is still ongoing, and the port inventory continues to rise. The subsequent demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [6]. Rubber - NR and RU have risen and then fluctuated slightly stronger. However, considering that the leading varieties in the black market have started to fluctuate, NR and RU still need to guard against the risk of correction. As of July 10, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 78.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 50.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.75 (+ 0.23) tons. In terms of spot prices, the Thai standard mixed rubber was 14120 (- 50) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1730 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1735 (- 5) dollars. The butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9300 (- 50) yuan, and the cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11300 (- 100) yuan [9][10][11][12]. PVC - On July 17, 2025, the PVC09 contract fell 41 yuan to 4934 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 94 (+ 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 115 (- 2) yuan/ton. On the cost side, the calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price was 820 (0) dollars/ton. The cost side remained unchanged, and the caustic soda spot price was 840 (0) yuan/ton. This week, the overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%; the ethylene method was 71%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The in - plant inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5), and the social inventory was 62.4 tons (+ 3.2) [14]. Styrene - The spot price has decreased, and the futures price has increased, with the basis weakening. Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward correction space. On the cost side, the operating rate of pure benzene has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. On the supply side, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the operating rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory of styrene has increased. It is the off - season, and the overall operating rate of the three S products on the demand side has declined. In the short - term, the geopolitical influence has subsided, the BZN is expected to recover, and the styrene price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17][18]. Polyethylene - The futures price has decreased. The US has released tariff policies against multiple countries, and the uncertainty of global trade policies has returned. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. The inventory of traders has fluctuated at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. It is the off - season, the orders for agricultural films on the demand side have fluctuated at a low level, and the overall operating rate has declined. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. In July, there are no new capacity investment plans, and the polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile [20]. Polypropylene - The futures price has decreased. The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually increase, with the marginal supply of propylene returning. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has declined seasonally. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene in July is expected to be bearish [21]. PX - On July 17, 2025, the PX09 contract rose 28 yuan to 6716 yuan, the PX CFR fell 4 dollars to 834 dollars, the basis was 160 (- 58) yuan according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 9 - 1 spread was 98 (+ 16) yuan. In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In terms of plants, there were not many changes in domestic plants. A 21 - ton plant of Idemitsu in Japan was shut down, the plant in Vietnam resumed operation, and the plant in Thailand was under maintenance. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In terms of plants, the production of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan increased, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 11.7 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of May was 434.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.5 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 254 dollars (- 1), and the naphtha cracking spread was 79 dollars (- 11). Currently, the PX maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. In the short - term, the valuation has been compressed after the Asian supply has returned and the polyester load has entered the off - season. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue de - stocking. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [23][24]. PTA - On July 17, 2025, the PTA09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4706 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 5 yuan to 4720 yuan, the basis was 11 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 50 (+ 10) yuan. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In terms of plants, the production of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan increased, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. In terms of plants, a 60 - ton filament plant of Hengteng restarted, a 60 - ton bottle - chip plant of Wankai was under maintenance, and a 25 - ton chip plant of Guxian Dao was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 7% to 62%, and the loom load decreased by 4% to 58%. As of July 11, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 217.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the spot processing fee of PTA increased by 25 yuan to 210 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 8 yuan to 300 yuan. In the future, on the supply side, the maintenance volume in July is small, and there are new plants being commissioned, with continuous inventory accumulation expected, and the PTA processing fee is under pressure. On the demand side, the inventory pressure of polyester fibers has increased, and the production of bottle - chips has been reduced. Overall, the demand side is under continuous pressure. In terms of valuation, the PXN is expected to be supported under the expectation of improved patterns brought by PTA commissioning. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. Ethylene Glycol - On July 17, 2025, the EG09 contract rose 29 yuan to 4351 yuan, the spot price in East China fell 8 yuan to 4400 yuan, the basis was 70 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was 2 (+ 16) yuan. On the supply side, the operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. Among them, the operating rate of syngas - based production was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 3.8%; the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 64.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. In terms of syngas - based plants, Hongsifang and Tianying restarted; in terms of oil - chemical plants, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load; overseas, the Sharq plant in the Jubail area of Saudi Arabia shut down and reduced its load again due to power problems. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. In terms of plants, a 60 - ton filament plant of Hengteng restarted, a 60 - ton bottle - chip plant of Wankai was under maintenance, and a 25 - ton chip plant of Guxian Dao was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 7% to 62%, and the loom load decreased by 4% to 58%. The forecast of imported arrivals at ports was 4.5 tons, and the departure from East China ports on July 15 was 0.9 tons, with a decrease in outgoing inventory. The port inventory was 55.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 485 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 640 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 938 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 820 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 530 yuan. In terms of industrial fundamentals

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Methanol Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The江苏现货 price increased by 5 to 2390, the华南现货 price decreased by 10 to 2395, and the鲁南折盘面 price decreased by 5 to 2455. The西南折盘面 price decreased by 55 to 2475, while the河北折盘面 and西北折盘面 prices remained unchanged at 2435 and 2575 respectively. The CFR中国 and CFR东南亚 prices remained at 275 and 333 respectively. The进口利润 remained unchanged, the主力基差 increased by 10 to -5, and the盘面MTO利润 decreased by 22 to -1243 [2] Core View - High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. Wait for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. Iran has reduced its production, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply. Overall, it is in a period of bearish factors being realized. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the single - side direction. Due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low levels [3] Group 3: Plastic (Polyethylene) Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the东北亚乙烯 price remained at 820. The华北LL price remained unchanged at 7190, the华东LL price decreased by 10 to 7290, and the华东LD and华东HD prices remained unchanged at 9450 and 7850 respectively. The LL美金 and LL美湾 prices remained at 850 and 939 respectively. The进口利润 remained at - 145, the主力期货 price decreased by 63 to 7221, the基差 increased by 10 to - 80, the两油库存 remained at 73, and the仓单 remained at 5956 [8] Core View - For polyethylene, the two - oil inventory is neutral year - on - year. The upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. The downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in June decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New devices in 2025 will bring significant pressure, so focus on the commissioning of new devices [8] Group 4: PP (Polypropylene) Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the山东丙烯 price remained at 6320, the东北亚丙烯 price remained at 740. The华东PP price decreased by 20 to 7010, the华北PP price decreased by 18 to 7070, and the山东粉料 price decreased by 70 to 6830. The华东共聚 price decreased by 14 to 7296. The PP美金 and PP美湾 prices remained at 890 and 1010 respectively. The出口利润 remained at 0, the主力期货 price decreased by 52 to 7015, the基差 increased by 10 to - 20, the两油库存 remained at 73, and the仓单 decreased by 200 to 10317 [8] Core View - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and markets in Europe and the US are stable. The PDH profit is around - 1000, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. Supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be eased to a neutral level [8] Group 5: PVC Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the西北电石 price remained at 2250, the山东烧碱 price increased by 20 to 857. The电石法 - 华东 price remained at 4900, the乙烯法 - 华东 price remained at 5500, the电石法 - 华南 price remained at 5450, and the电石法 - 西北 price increased by 100 to 4550. The进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained at 700, the出口利润 remained at 387, the西北综合利润 remained at 356, the华北综合利润 remained at - 244, and the基差 (高端交割品) increased by 20 to - 80 [12][13] Core View - The basis maintains at 09 - 150, and the factory - delivery basis is - 450. Downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the mid - and upstream has slowed down. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices is ongoing, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. Pay attention to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. Near - term export orders have decreased slightly. Coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of兰炭 is stable, and the profit of电石 is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda export is FOB380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - grade caustic soda. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: In the expansion cycle, the upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient, and they are in a callback and consolidation phase. Suggest a long - term view of supply surplus and a short - term view of narrow - range oscillations with a rebound - biased short position. SC is expected to be in the range of [450 - 465] [1][3][4]. - **LPG**: It follows the cost side for oscillatory adjustments. In the long - term, it is bearish, and in the short - term, it is oscillatory. Suggest selling bull spread options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4380 - 4430] [1][8][9]. - **L**: The spot price is falling, with abundant supply and a weak oscillatory trend. In the long - term, it is suggested to take short positions on rallies. L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [1][12]. - **PP**: The basis is weakening, and the market is in a weak oscillatory state during the off - season. In the long - term, it is suggested to take short positions on rallies. PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [1][15]. - **PVC**: The market is in a contango structure, with limited upward momentum in the fundamentals and a weakening oscillatory trend. Short - term observation is recommended. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [1][17]. - **PX**: There is a supply - demand contraction, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. Short - term observation or seizing opportunities to widen the px - sc spread is recommended. PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [1][19]. - **PTA/P - R**: The supply - side pressure is relieved, but the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing, and the valuation is low. Short - term observation or seizing opportunities to increase TA processing fees and the ta - eg spread is recommended. TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [1][22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - side pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies. EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [1][25]. - **Glass**: The domestic loose monetary policy has limited impact on demand, and the market expectation is pessimistic. FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080] [1][29]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is abundant, and the growth of photovoltaic demand has slowed down. The market is bearish in the medium - term. SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [1][31]. - **Methanol**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions. MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [1][32]. - **Urea**: Although the supply pressure is large, the fertilizer export growth is fast, and there is a bottom - support at the cost side. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1860 - 1920] [1]. - **Asphalt**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. It is expected to have a short - term rebound. BU is expected to be in the range of [3390 - 3450] [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.73%, Brent down 1.66%, and SC up 1.81% [2]. - **基本逻辑**: OPEC+ started to increase production in April, and the increase rate exceeded expectations. The EIA estimated the global oil demand in 2025 to be 1.037 billion barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 200 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve increased by 60 million barrels [3]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, the supply is in surplus, and the oil price fluctuates between 55 - 65 US dollars. In the short - term, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies. SC is expected to be in the range of [450 - 465] [4]. LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 7, the PG main contract closed at 4450 yuan/ton, up 1.16% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **基本逻辑**: The upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient, and LPG's own fundamentals have few contradictions. The port inventory has increased, and the PDH operating rate has risen [8]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is bearish. In the short - term, it is oscillatory. It is recommended to sell bull spread options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4380 - 4430] [9]. L - **行情回顾**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26 yuan/ton day - on - day [11]. - **基本逻辑**: New production capacities have been put into operation, and the supply is abundant. The agricultural film is in the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies. L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [12]. - **策略推荐**: Take short positions on rallies, and L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [12]. PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton day - on - day [14]. - **基本逻辑**: New production capacities have been put into operation, and the export of products is under pressure. The basis is weakening, and it is in the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies. PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [15]. - **策略推荐**: Take short positions on rallies, and PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [15]. PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **基本逻辑**: New production capacities have been added, and the supply is under pressure. The demand is weak, and the export is stable. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [17]. - **策略推荐**: Observe in the short - term, and V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [17]. PX - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6212 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 288 yuan/ton [18]. - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The demand side is weakening, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to seize opportunities to widen the PX - SC spread. PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [19]. - **策略推荐**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [20]. PTA - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the PTA price in East China was 4560 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4434 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 126 yuan/ton [21]. - **基本逻辑**: PTA devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The demand side is relatively good but expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to seize opportunities to increase TA processing fees and the TA - EG spread. TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [22]. - **策略推荐**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 4214 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4155 yuan/ton. The EG5 - 9 spread was 33 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 59 yuan/ton [24]. - **基本逻辑**: Devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The to - port volume is high, and the demand side is expected to weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies. EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [25]. - **策略推荐**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [26]. Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market quotation was stable, and the market was in a weak state. The basis in Shahe weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **基本逻辑**: The central bank's policies have limited impact on demand. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is improving slowly. The market expectation is pessimistic. FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080] [29]. - **策略推荐**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [29]. Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The spot price of heavy soda ash decreased, and the market was under pressure. The main contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30]. - **基本逻辑**: Some soda ash enterprises have maintenance plans in May, and the supply may contract. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [31]. - **策略推荐**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [31]. Methanol - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2443 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2251 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 216 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 192 yuan/ton [32]. - **基本逻辑**: The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory has increased, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions. MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [32]. - **策略推荐**: MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [33].