Group 1 - The central bank emphasizes a "moderately loose" monetary policy, indicating a flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, while acknowledging the resilience of the global economy [1][2] - Short-term probability of further quantitative easing is low, with potential triggers such as significant geopolitical events or unexpected economic fluctuations needed for any policy adjustments [2] - The central bank has set an upper limit on long-term bond yields, alleviating concerns about excessive interest rate adjustments, and suggests that current yield levels for 10-year and 30-year government bonds are attractive for investors [3] Group 2 - The report reiterates the goal of guiding short-term money market rates to stabilize around the central bank's policy rates, indicating potential for further declines in short-term rates [4] - The central bank addresses the issue of deposit "migration," clarifying that it does not equate to liquidity contraction, and emphasizes the importance of observing total liquidity rather than focusing solely on marginal changes in deposits [5][6] - The analysis suggests that the slowdown in resident deposit growth is primarily due to funds flowing into wealth management and fund products, which ultimately return to the banking system, indicating that overall liquidity remains stable [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high-level decline in the growth rate of household deposits in China by the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a shift in asset allocation towards wealth management and asset management products, which is a response to the declining interest rates and a more diversified financial market [2][3]. Group 1: Asset Management Products Growth - The scale of asset management products has been growing rapidly, with a total asset balance of 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [3][4]. - The growth in asset management products is attributed to the marketization of interest rates, where investors are weighing returns against risks, leading to a shift from bank deposits to these products [3][4]. - By the end of 2025, over 80% of asset management products were allocated to fixed-income assets, with significant investments in interbank deposits and certificates of deposit [4]. Group 2: Changes in Deposit Structure - The report indicates that the rapid growth of asset management products has altered the structure of bank deposits, with a recent decline in the proportion of household and corporate deposits and an increase in interbank deposits [5][6]. - Even though some deposits are shifting towards wealth management and asset management products, a significant portion is still directed towards interbank deposits and certificates of deposit, which ultimately returns to the banking system [5][6]. Group 3: Liquidity Assessment - The overall liquidity in the financial system can be assessed by aggregating bank deposits and asset management products while excluding interbank transactions, showing a stable growth trend in liquidity over recent years [6][7]. - The central bank has effectively met the liquidity needs of the banking system through various tools, with a net injection of 6 trillion yuan in open market operations in 2025 [6][7]. - The current social financing environment remains relatively loose, supporting the real economy while allowing for a more diversified observation of asset and liability structures [7].

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 延续适度宽松，更加强调"以我为主" ——2025 年 Q4 货币政策执行报告解读 核心观点 2026 年 2 月 10 日，人民银行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》，我们认 为货币政策报告核心要点有：①延续适度宽松基调，更加强调"以我为主"；②财政金 融协同支持扩内需，重点关注再贷款+财政贴息&风险共担，而非购债；③重点关注绿 色金融，从做大规模转向做强机制；④从资管产品+银行存款合并视角看流动性总量， 单纯用传统存款派生框架容易误读流动性松紧；⑤支持个人高效便捷重塑信用。 对于后续货币政策，预计 2026 年有 25-50BP 降准、10BP 降息的总量性宽松操作，节 奏上预计小步慢跑，频度不会太高。此外预计结构性政策工具也将持续发力，同步强 化信贷的结构性引导，扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等领域是重点支持方向。 ❑ 一、延续适度宽松基调，更加强调"以我为主" 央行在三季度下一阶段主要思路里强调"实施好适度宽松…保持社融条件相对宽 松"，并且在同一段落中单列提示"密切关注海外主要央行货币政策变化"。四季 度央行同样提及"继续实施好适度宽松"，但 ...

新华财经北京2月11日电（记者翟卓）中国人民银行10日发布的《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报 告》显示，从金融总量、价格、结构等多个角度观察，2025年适度宽松的货币政策效果已逐步显现，助 力全年经济社会发展主要目标顺利实现。 往后看，前期存量政策的效果将持续显现，适度宽松的货币政策也将继续实施，加之货币政策与财政政 策协同还可叠加释放政策效能，金融支持实体经济的力度有望保持稳固，物价也有望进一步温和回升。 另据此次报告专栏，流动性总量宜从多元化资产负债合并角度观察，居民资产配置调整不意味着流动性 出现较大变化。 直接融资加快多元发展 物价呈现积极边际改善 报告显示，2025年适度宽松的货币政策效果逐步显现。期间金融总量保持较快增长，社会综合融资成本 低位下行，信贷结构也持续优化。 例如截至去年末，我国科技贷款、绿色贷款、普惠贷款、养老产业贷款、数字经济产业贷款分别同比增 长11.5%、20.2%、10.9%、50.5%、14.1%，持续高于全部贷款增速。 在受访专家看来，上年适度宽松的货币政策具有累积效应，存量政策效果还会持续显现。今年初人民银 行又推出了一揽子货币金融举措，这些增量政策也会和存量政策 ...

记者丨唐婧 编辑丨肖嘉 2025 年三季度，居民存款增速高位有所回落 ，各方关注增多， 出现了一些关于银行存款"流 失"的探讨。 2月10日，中国人民银行发布《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》（下称《报告》）， 对近期居民储蓄存款分流现象做出回应。 在题为"从资管产品与银行存款的合并视角看流动性总量"的专栏3中， 央行表示， 如果居民将 存款转化为资管产品，这些资管产品投向同业存款和存单，会直接增加非银机构在银行的存 款，若投向其他底层资产，最终也会转化为企业和相关机构的存款，从归宿上看 ，最终会回 流到银行体系。 业内专家告诉21世纪经济报道记者，当前我国直接融资和非银业务加快发展，社会融资渠道更 加多元，金融体系的资产负债结构也发生了很大变化。 类似于观察社会融资总量，不能还像 过去只盯着贷款增速，要更多看涵盖贷款等间接融资与债券等直接融资的社会融资规模。 全 社会的流动性总量也可以从更大范围进行综合衡量。比如加总银行存款与理财资管产品等与直 接融资和非银业务相关部分，并剔除资管与银行之间的关联交易，按此加总后的流动性总量指 标显示，近年来整体上呈现平稳增长态势。 《报告》指出，总的来说，随着我国 ...

央行数据显示，2025 年二季度以来 ，金融机构资管产品规模加快增长。10 月末 ，资管产品规模增速达到资管新规实施以来的最高水平。年末 资管总资产余额合计 120 万亿元 ，同比增长 13. 1%，全年累计增加 13.8 万亿元 ，同比多增 2.2 万亿元。各类资管产品中，资金链上游的银行 理财和公募基金市场份额较大，增长也较快，年末增速分别达到 10.6%和 14.3%。 从住户和企业募集的资管资金增速也在持续上升。截至2025 年末，资管产品来源于住户和企业等实体部门的资金余额为 56.3 万亿元，同比增 长 9.7%，比 2023 年末高 7.9 个百分点，比同期住户和企业存款增速高 2.4 个百分点。2024 年初至 2025 年末，来源于住户和企业的资金累计 增加 9.4 万亿元。 业内专家告诉记者，当前我国直接融资和非银业务加快发展，社会融资渠道更加多元，金融体系的资产负债结构也发生了很大变化。类似于观 察社会融资总量，不能还像过去只盯着贷款增速，要更多看涵盖贷款等间接融资与债券等直接融资的社会融资规模。全社会的流动性总量也可 以从更大范围进行综合衡量。比如加总银行存款与理财资管产品等与直接融资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in household asset allocation in China, highlighting a shift from traditional bank deposits to wealth management and asset management products, driven by declining interest rates and a more diversified financial market [3][5][7]. Group 1: Changes in Asset Allocation - In the context of declining interest rates, households and enterprises are increasingly reallocating their assets towards wealth management and asset management products, indicating a more flexible approach to asset distribution [3][5]. - By the end of 2025, the balance of funds from households and enterprises in asset management products reached 56.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, outpacing the growth of household and enterprise deposits by 2.4 percentage points [6]. Group 2: Growth of Asset Management Products - The scale of asset management products has grown rapidly, with a total asset balance of 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1% and an increase of 13.8 trillion yuan over the year [5][6]. - Over 80% of asset management products are allocated to fixed-income assets, with significant investments in interbank deposits and certificates of deposit, which totaled 28.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking an 18.9% year-on-year increase [6]. Group 3: Impact on Bank Deposits - The rapid growth of asset management products has altered the structure of bank deposits, with a recent decline in the proportion of household and enterprise deposits and an increase in interbank deposits [7]. - Despite the shift towards wealth management and asset management products, most of the funds are ultimately directed back to the banking system, indicating that the overall liquidity in the financial system remains stable [7][11]. Group 4: Broader Financial Environment - The article emphasizes the need to assess liquidity from a broader perspective, incorporating both bank deposits and asset management products, which reflects a stable growth trend in overall liquidity [10][11]. - The central bank has actively managed liquidity through various tools, ensuring that the banking system's liquidity needs are met, with a net injection of 6 trillion yuan in open market operations in 2025 [11].

央行介绍，资管产品新增资产主要投向同业存款和存单。固定收益类资产是资管资产配置的主要部分。 2025 年末，80%以上的资管产品投向固定收益类资产，新增资产主要集中于同业存款和存单。 年末资 管产品配置同业存款和存单共计 28.7 万亿元 ， 同比增长 18.9% ，全年累计增加 4.6 万亿元 ， 占资管 各类新增底层资产的五成左右 ， 比重较上年同期提升超过 20 个百分点。 除存款和存单外 ，债券、 股 票及股权、 非标准化债权也是资管产品的重要投向。 2025 年以来 ，债券和非标债权的增长相对稳定， 股票资产随市场情况会有变动。央行 2025 年三季度，居民存款增速高位有所回落 ，各方关注增多， 出现了一些关于银行存款"流失"的探 讨。 2月10日，中国人民银行发布《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》（下称《报告》），对近期居 民储蓄存款分流现象做出回应。 在题为"从资管产品与银行存款的合并视角看流动性总量"的专栏3中， 央行表示，如果居民将存款转化 为资管产品，这些资管产品投向同业存款和存单，会直接增加非银机构在银行的存款，若投向其他底层 资产，最终也会转化为企业和相关机构的存款，从归宿上看 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in asset allocation among residents and enterprises, with increased investment in wealth management and asset management products, indicating a potential "loss" of bank deposits [1][2][4] Group 1: Asset Management Growth - The scale of asset management products has grown rapidly, reaching a total asset balance of 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [2] - The growth in asset management products is attributed to the marketization of interest rates, with a notable shift in investment from bank deposits to higher-yielding asset management products [2][3] - By the end of 2025, funds from households and enterprises in asset management products reached 56.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, outpacing the growth of household and enterprise deposits [3] Group 2: Changes in Deposit Structure - The rapid growth of asset management products has altered the structure of bank deposits, with a decrease in the proportion of household and enterprise deposits and an increase in interbank deposits [4] - Even with some deposits shifting to wealth management and asset management products, a significant portion is still directed towards interbank deposits and certificates of deposit, which ultimately returns to the banking system [4] Group 3: Liquidity Assessment - The overall liquidity in the financial system can be better assessed by considering both bank deposits and asset management products, along with direct financing and non-bank business [5] - The central bank has actively managed liquidity needs in the banking system, with a net injection of 6 trillion yuan through open market operations in 2025, indicating a relatively loose financing environment [6] - The report emphasizes that while the structure of bank liabilities may change due to shifts in asset allocation, the overall liquidity in the financial system remains stable [6]