证券研究报告| 行业定期报告 2025 年 09 月 15 日 招商证券丨总量的视野 电话会议纪要（20250914） 研究部/总量研究 【宏观-张岸天】就业、通胀和美联储连续降息预期 【策略-涂婧清】内外部流动性改善驱动港股新一轮上涨 【固收-朱宸翰】长债重定价结束了么 【银行-王先爽】M1 增速何时见顶？-8 月金融数据分析 【基金评价-徐燕红】公募基金第三阶段费率改革影响深度解析 ❑ 【宏观-张岸天】就业、通胀和美联储连续降息预期 近期，海外市场对于美联储自 9 月起连续降息三次的预期升温，主要由弱非 农和仍属温和的关税通胀等经济数据所支持。 从美债利率来看，市场已经从上周开始计入供需双弱、降温明显的劳动力市 场。1）8 月非农新增 2.2 万人，大幅低于市场所预期的 7.5 万人。建筑业、 制造业、商业服务和政府部门的降幅都比较明显，其中建筑业降幅扩大到-0.7 万人（前值-0.1 万人），时薪增速环比涨幅有 0.6%，价升量减很可能反映出 移民政策的影响。2）9 号 BLS 发布非农基准修订数据，共计下修 91.1 万人， 属于市场预期高位区间。分行业来看，政府部门下修 3.1 万，私人部门下修 8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Hong Kong stocks is attributed to external factors such as the potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as well as internal factors including strong liquidity and favorable valuations in the market [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index reached a nearly four-year high of 25,918 points on August 25, closing at 25,829 points with a daily increase of 1.94% [2]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange saw significant trading activity, with a total turnover approaching 370 billion HKD, an increase of nearly 30% compared to the previous trading day [2]. Group 2: External Catalysts - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting indicated rising risks in U.S. employment and persistent inflation pressures, leading to increased market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September [4]. - The anticipated rate cut is expected to lower global funding costs, making risk assets like stocks more attractive, and is likely to benefit Hong Kong's market due to its currency peg to the U.S. dollar [4]. Group 3: Internal Factors - Chinese stocks, including both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, have been favored by domestic and international investors, with HSBC Global Research raising its targets for major A-share indices [5]. - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio was reported at 11.5 times as of August 22, significantly lower than major indices in the U.S., Japan, and Europe, indicating attractive valuations [5][6]. - There has been a notable inflow of southbound capital, with a cumulative inflow of 891.09 billion CNY this year, surpassing levels seen since 2021 [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The increasing allocation of domestic active equity funds to Hong Kong stocks has reached a record high, with a portfolio allocation of 19.9% as of Q2 2025 [6]. - The presence of emerging industries such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals in the Hong Kong market, along with plans for leading A-share companies to list in Hong Kong, is expected to enhance the overall asset quality of the market [6].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened at 25,766 points, reaching a new high for the current rally, but closed at 25,598 points, down 0.06% [1] - Tencent Holdings reported better-than-expected half-year results, which contributed to the market's positive sentiment [1] - Analysts expect resistance around 26,000 points in the short term, but the medium-term upward trend remains intact [1] Group 2 - The mainland's economic performance in the first half of the year was stable, and the easing of trade tensions between the US and other countries has positively impacted market sentiment [2] - The current earnings season is expected to inject momentum into the market, particularly for technology stocks [2] - Despite the Hang Seng Index reaching a new high, there are concerns about significant resistance above 26,000 points, and profit-taking pressures may increase [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.95%, gaining 229 points to close at 24,392 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.18% [1] - The early trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached 132.1 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Insurance Sector - In April, personal insurance premiums showed a strong recovery, indicating potential acceleration in the investment flexibility of insurance companies [1] - Major insurance stocks continued their upward trend, with New China Life Insurance rising by 4.36%, China Life Insurance by 4.23%, China Pacific Insurance by 2%, and Ping An Insurance by 2.42% [1] Group 3: Brokerage Sector - Positive news for the brokerage industry suggests that the mid-year reports are likely to continue the good growth trend seen in the first quarter [1] - Chinese brokerage stocks saw gains, with Everbright Securities increasing by 5.63% and China Merchants Securities by 3.96% [1] Group 4: Specific Companies - China Hongqiao rose by 4.47%, reaching a historical high, as the company plans to restructure its core assets, leading to a potential revaluation of its overall value [2] - Jinli Permanent Magnet surged over 7% due to optimistic signals regarding rare earth exports, with institutions viewing the company's growth potential favorably [3] - China Rare Earth saw a rise of over 12%, with its stock price doubling in the last three days amid increasing expectations for relaxed rare earth export policies [4] - Skyworth Group increased by nearly 4%, accumulating an 18% rise this week, with a cash offer to repurchase approximately 341 million shares [5] - Youjia Innovation rose over 10%, benefiting from the dual listing policy for enterprises in the Greater Bay Area, with institutions optimistic about its performance flexibility [6] - Dongyue Group increased by 3.77%, supported by a continuous rise in refrigerant prices, with institutions optimistic about the company's profit margins [6] - Zhixing Technology rose by 5.95%, recently securing a contract with a leading commercial logistics vehicle platform, indicating a second growth curve through robotics [6] - Connoisseur-B fell over 3% after announcing a discounted placement of shares, aiming to raise 854 million HKD [6]