11月12日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，沪锌期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报 23680.00元/吨，大幅上涨2.96%。 需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，下游市场逐步转向淡季，地产板块构成拖累，基建、家电板块 也呈现走弱，而汽车等领域政策支持带来部分亮点。 宏观方面，据铜冠金源期货介绍，美国上周初请失业金人数增加4.4万人至23.6万人，预估为22.0万人， 创2020年全球疫情爆发以来最大增幅，美元回落。国内中央经济工作会议保持积极，助力经济修复。 供应方面，创元期货指出，国内矿供应受北方冬季减产和进口利润影响持续紧张，表观呈现TC持续下 行和矿库存减少，冶炼利润因TC影响受损严重，呈逼近去年利润低点趋势。 展望后市，国泰君安期货表示，明年锌元素依然存在过剩预期，但国内现实端过剩年内已经兑现，弱预 期应有所修正，短期来看利空因素较为受阻。叠加TC Benchmark博弈阶段供应端扰动增强，价格存在 一定向上弹性，关注阶段性交易机会。 ...

能源、化工反内卷专场 20251204 摘要 2025 年上半年煤炭市场因价格下跌受政府政策干预，国家能源局 7 月 发布通知限制煤矿超额生产，有效稳定了市场价格。截至 2025 年 12 月，北港动力煤指数达 835 元/吨，高于年初约 30 元，现货成交价约 850 元/吨。 预计 2026 年一季度动力煤和焦煤市场将保持平稳，短期内或有小幅回 调，但整体趋势向上。政策调控和稳定的供应端将避免类似 2021 年的 剧烈波动，煤炭价格预计维持在合理区间。 2025 年政府工作报告强调整治内卷式竞争，通过安全督查等规范生产 行为稳定供应，与 2016 年供给侧改革不同，当前政策旨在保障行业平 稳运行，维护企业利润水平，不会引发剧烈波动。 2025 年 1 月至 9 月全国原煤产量同比增长 2%，但主要产区如山西、陕 西、内蒙古、新疆 9 月产量同比下降，表明主产区增速放缓，有助于市 场趋稳，防止过度竞争。 煤炭价格上涨主要由供应端扰动造成，而非需求增加。2023-2024 年 现货市场中间环节库存低，贸易商参与度低，导致价格波动剧烈，贸易 商持货意愿差，放大了价格弹性。 Q&A 煤炭行业反内卷的背景是什么？ ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - President Trump announced that gold would not be subject to tariffs, leading to a significant drop in precious metal prices, with COMEX gold futures down 2.78% to $3394.1 per ounce and silver down 2.29% to $37.66 per ounce [2] - The recent tariff announcement by U.S. Customs and Border Protection on gold imports could have profound implications for the global gold market, with analysts suggesting that gold prices may experience strong fluctuations in the long term [3] Group 2: Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main contract rising by 8% to 81,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply disruptions, particularly the suspension of mining operations at the Jiangxiawo mine by CATL [8][11] - The suspension of the Jiangxiawo mine is expected to reduce lithium supply by approximately 6.8 million tons in the second half of the year, with a monthly supply decrease of 14,000 to 16,000 tons, representing about 13% of current domestic monthly supply [12] - Analysts believe that while the current price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly, the fundamental supply-demand balance has not reversed, and caution is advised regarding potential price corrections [13]