国内宏观政策利好不断，近期中央提前向地方下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债，用于支持消 费品以旧换新，以满足元旦、春节等旺季消费需求。为提振消费，政策打出"组合拳"，加强财政金融协 同以放大政策效能，进一步增强了市场乐观情绪。 基本面，沪锌社库续降、供应收缩预期强，现货保持升水，国内炼厂减产延续，1月锌锭产出预计环比 基本持平，对锌价形成支撑。消费端虽进入行业淡季，但在"十五五"开局、开门红预期下，消费仍具韧 性。 整体来看，锌基本面中性，矛盾有限，资金交投热情一般，暂呈震荡态势，不过宏观偏好主导，今日现 货锌价或上涨，参考价格区间为2.33 - 2.45万元/吨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 【ccmn.cn摘要】美指走软及铜铝大涨催生市场乐观情绪，隔夜伦锌收涨2.59%；沪锌社库续降、供应收 缩预期强，现货升水及宏观偏好主导，今现锌或上涨。 【ccmn.cn锌期货市场】隔夜伦锌震荡走强，盘中走势强劲，开盘报3139.5美元/吨，高点报3213.5美 元，低点报3136美元，尾盘收于3208美元，涨81美元，涨幅2.59%；成交量16928手增加9214手， ...

Core Viewpoint - Coking coal futures continue to show weakness, with the main contract dropping to 1079.5 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 2.48% [1] Market Summary - As of December 9, a survey of 20 coal mines in major production areas revealed that 17 maintained stable prices, 1 increased prices, 2 decreased prices, and 2 were suspended [2] - In the Yuzhou market, the price of blowing coal fell by 60 yuan/ton, with specific prices for different grades of coal reported [2] - The latest data from the Australian Gladstone Port Company indicates that coal exports in November 2025 were 5.8985 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.42% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guohai Liangshi Futures suggests that upcoming political and economic meetings in mid-December, along with the gradual onset of winter replenishment demand, may provide a turning point for coking coal prices. It is advised to avoid aggressive bottom-fishing strategies until signs of inventory turning points or favorable macroeconomic factors emerge [4] - Jinxin Futures anticipates a short-term pressure and limited downside for prices, with the current contract price below the mainstream spot warehouse receipt cost of 1100 yuan/ton. However, pre-Spring Festival replenishment demand may support prices from significant declines [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: Not provided Core Views - The steel market has seen a slight improvement in sentiment, but weak demand expectations still limit the upside. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to policy changes in the real estate sector [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be range-bound, with a generally loose fundamental situation but short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to experience weak and volatile price movements due to abundant carbon element supply and strong raw material price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by the expected decline in power and raw material costs, with overall demand showing some resilience [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: This week, the apparent demand and production decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The overall demand is weak, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [2]. - Hot - rolled coil: Demand declined, production continued to increase, and inventory decreased slowly. The pressure still needs to be alleviated [2]. - Overall: Steel mills are in a loss - making state, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high. Domestic demand is weak, and exports have declined from the high level. The market sentiment has improved, but weak demand expectations limit the upside [2]. Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are stronger than the same period, domestic arrivals have rebounded to the annual high, and port inventory is in an accumulation trend [3]. - Demand: Steel apparent demand is low, in the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. Iron - making is in a seasonal production - cut trend [3]. - Outlook: The fundamentals are loose, but there are short - term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties, and the market is expected to be range - bound [3]. Coke - Price: The price fluctuated downward during the day. The first round of price cuts is expected to be fully implemented next Monday [4]. - Supply and demand: Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly increased, and inventory has slightly increased. Downstream demand has some resilience, but steel mills have a strong desire to cut prices [4]. - Outlook: The price is likely to be weak and volatile [4]. Coking Coal - Supply: The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices are mainly falling [6]. - Inventory: Total coking coal inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory has increased slightly [6]. - Outlook: The price is likely to be weak and volatile [6]. Silicomanganese - Cost: The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, leading to an expected decline in power costs and chemical coke prices [7]. - Supply and demand: Iron - making output has rebounded to a high level, weekly production has decreased slightly, and inventory is slowly increasing [7]. - Outlook: The bottom - support expectation has moved down [7]. Ferrosilicon - Cost: The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices [8]. - Supply and demand: Iron - making output has rebounded to a high level, export demand has declined, and secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand has some resilience [8]. - Outlook: The bottom - support strength will be tested [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7]. Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of this week, the macro and policy fronts "paused", and the subsequent inventory pressure corresponding to the high arrival of iron ore made the iron ore price relatively under pressure. After entering November, the molten iron output will decline seasonally, weakening the demand support for the furnace charge end. However, seasonal production cuts rather than negative - feedback production cuts will put relatively limited downward pressure on the prices of industrial chain varieties. If the macro and policy levels release positive news later, it will still support the prices of sector varieties [1][2]. - The fundamentals of the industrial chain will gradually weaken marginally. Since the decline in molten iron is mainly due to the seasonal production cuts of steel enterprises, the negative feedback on sector varieties is limited. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of macro and policy introduction and pay attention to phased upward opportunities [7]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - The arrival rhythm of iron ore is significantly disturbed, and the port inventory is rapidly accumulating. The fundamentals of iron ore are not optimistic, but the decline of ore price is limited. The scrap steel fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and it is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate following the finished products in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke continues to strengthen, and the third round of price increase is expected to be implemented. However, under the pressure on both coking and steel mill profits, the price is expected to oscillate. The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy, with the price expected to oscillate [2]. Alloy - The high steel output and stable cost support the prices of ferromanganese - silicon and ferrosilicon in the short term, but the supply of ferromanganese - silicon is expected to remain high, with inventory pressure and limited upward driving force. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively loose, suppressing the upward price space [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Some production lines in the Shahe area stopped production, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. If the production and sales remain weak, the price will return to weak oscillation. In the long term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to decline oscillating. The over - supply pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [3]. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is weak, and the speculative sentiment is poor. The molten iron output declines, the five major steel products output increases, the demand continues to recover, and the inventory continues to decline. However, the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The short - term market is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the macro - policy and supply disturbances [9]. Iron Ore - The spot price has weakened significantly. Overseas mine shipments decreased, and arrivals increased significantly. The demand for molten iron decreased, and the port inventory accumulated rapidly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The supply is slightly tight, the overall daily consumption decreases, and the inventory is de - stocked. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate following the finished products [11]. Coke - The cost support is strengthening, and the third - round price increase is expected to be implemented. However, both coking and steel mill profits are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Coking Coal - The supply is difficult to improve, and the downstream and middle - stream procurement is continuous. The coal mine inventory has reached a low level in recent years, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [14]. Glass - The short - term supply may decline, but the demand is weak, and the middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The short - term price may return to weak oscillation, and in the long term, it is expected to decline oscillating [15]. Soda Ash - The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support is strengthened, and the price bottom support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [16][17]. Ferromanganese - Silicon - The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price. However, the supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and the upward driving force for the price is insufficient [18]. Ferrosilicon - The high steel output and increased cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, suppressing the upward price space [19].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Gold is expected to have a long - term strong performance, with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an intraday view of being oscillatingly strong, driven by the unchanged medium - to - long - term upward trend and Sino - US frictions [1] - Copper is also considered to have a long - term strong outlook, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday upward trends, due to factors such as resurgent mine - end disturbances, increased capital attention, and intensified Sino - US trade fluctuations [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: The gold market has experienced a volatile "roller - coaster" ride, with New York gold fluctuating fiercely in the 4200 - 4400 range, and an intraday amplitude of over 3%. Last week, after hitting a new high, the price dropped significantly, with spot gold falling nearly $130 from the record high and an intraday decline of over 2%. Yesterday, the price bottomed out and rebounded near the 5 - day moving average, approaching the previous high again [3] - **Driving Factors**: In the short term, as the gold price rises sharply, the willingness of funds to take profits increases rapidly, leading to intensified price fluctuations. Technically, the support of the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages below and the pressure of the previous high above can be monitored [3] Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Since late September, copper prices have witnessed a significant upward trend [4] - **Driving Factors**: Supply - side, global copper mine supply disruptions are the key drivers. On the macro - level, the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October, along with the positive signal of easing Sino - US trade relations, support the copper price. On the demand side, there is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality, with some copper processing enterprises reporting shrinking terminal orders and increased wait - and - see sentiment due to high prices. Overall, macro - level easing and supply contraction continue to drive up the copper price, while short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress it, and the pressure of the previous high should be continuously monitored [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: The easing of Sino - US tariff tensions has led to a slight rebound in coke futures from a low level. The fundamental situation of coke has changed little, with supply and demand remaining at a high level. Short - term demand is well - supported, but the demand growth rate has started to decline, and the room for further increase in hot metal production is limited. With the release of domestic macro - positive policies and the cooling of Sino - US trade frictions, the coke futures main contract is expected to continue a slight rebound [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: An important consensus on tariffs was reached between China and the US in Switzerland, and a package of favorable policies was introduced. The market sentiment has improved, and short - sellers leaving the market have driven the main contract of coking coal futures to rebound from a low level. The supply of coking coal remains in a loose pattern, and although the fundamentals have changed little, the short - term improvement in the market atmosphere supports a slight rebound in coking coal futures [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - The US promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by Executive Orders 14259 and 14266 on April 8 and 9, 2025, and modify the 34% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by Executive Order 14257 on April 2, 2025, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and the remaining 10% retained. China will cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs on US goods and suspend 24% of the 34% counter - tariffs for 90 days, retaining the remaining 10% [8]. - On May 12, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 being 1,270 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,440 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 14.79% | - 32.71% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,320 | - 1.49% | - 1.49% | - 18.52% | - 34.00% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimao Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,030 | - 0.48% | - 0.48% | - 12.71% | - 38.69% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,300 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 12.75% | - 41.18% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 8.50% | - 36.36% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,471.5 | 0.75 | 1,476.0 | 1,440.5 | 29,067 | 9,185 | 50,779 | 10 | | Coking Coal | | 889.5 | 0.68 | 891.5 | 864.5 | 511,424 | 188,138 | 399,857 | - 3,159 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal over the years [20][23][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation conditions [27][29][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The Sino - US tariff issue has improved, and domestic macro - positive policies have been released. The coke market is in a game between fundamentals and tariff policies. The main coke contract is expected to continue a slight rebound [32]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal remains loose, but the short - term improvement in the market atmosphere due to policy support drives the coking coal futures to rebound slightly from a low level [33].