证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20251222 2026 年转债策略：从收益增强转向风险平衡 2025 年 12 月 22 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 董含星 执业证书：S0600524120006 donghx@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《降息交易陷入纠结，市场静待"圣 诞老人"行情》 2025-12-21 《政策退坡和基数抬升下商品消费延 续承压》 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 24 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 核心观点：2025 年转债市场呈现"平价和溢价率双击"的大贝塔行情， 展望 2026 年"高估值+强赎倾向+次新走妖"或将成为自身掣肘，转债 资产的定位应当从"权益替代"转向"债市补充收益"。正股层面，慢牛 预期下平价或仍可成为正向收益贡献，但各主线的交易逻辑逐步发生改 变，也将影响转债交易特性，一方面科技成长逐步从"0-1"向"1-N" 过渡，市场也将从"主题投资普涨"过渡到"去伪存真、产业链供需重 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [9]. Core Insights - The company has experienced short-term operational fluctuations due to the order rhythm in the special and communication industries. However, it is expected to return to mid-to-high-speed growth due to previous high R&D investments, new capacity releases, and a new round of equity incentives [2][5]. - The high-reliability special power supply market has significant growth potential, driven by trends in equipment electrification and emerging sectors like domestic large aircraft and commercial aerospace. As a leading domestic manufacturer, the company is poised to benefit [6][60]. - In the AIDC and communication sectors, the company is leveraging its deep expertise in high-performance power supplies to tap into the burgeoning AIDC power market, which is expected to yield substantial revenue growth [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1997, the company focuses on high-efficiency, high-reliability, and high-power-density power products, particularly in aerospace, aerospace, and special high-grade power supply fields. It has developed a rich product portfolio and offers comprehensive solutions across multiple industries [5][18]. Market Trends - The high-reliability special power supply market is recovering steadily, with long-term positive trends. The demand for power supplies in domestic large aircraft and commercial aerospace is expected to expand significantly, with projected annual demand reaching 16.9 billion in the next 20 years [6][54]. - The AIDC and communication sectors are experiencing a boom driven by AI computing power, leading to increased demand for server power supplies. The global AI server power module market is projected to grow from $6.5 billion to $60.8 billion between 2025 and 2031 [7][28]. Financial Performance - The company has faced short-term revenue and profit fluctuations due to order volatility in the special and communication sectors. However, it has shown signs of improvement in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 929 million, a year-on-year increase of 36% [27][29]. - The company's gross margin has fluctuated, with a projected gross margin of 40% for 2024 and 2025, reflecting the impact of product structure adjustments and increased R&D expenses [29][30]. R&D and Capacity Expansion - The company maintains a strong commitment to R&D, with a focus on developing core technologies and expanding its product offerings. It has accumulated 399 intellectual property rights, including 67 invention patents [35][36]. - New capacity projects across multiple locations are nearing completion, with significant contributions expected to revenue and production capacity by 2025 and 2026 [42][44]. Equity Incentives - The company has implemented multiple rounds of equity incentives to bind core employees, with the latest plan aiming for substantial revenue growth targets over the next three years [46][48].

Key Insights - The report indicates that the central economic work conference and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting have concluded smoothly, with overall policy coherence and limited marginal changes, suggesting that the market will continue to experience high-level fluctuations [1] - The report emphasizes that industry rotation remains the main theme, but the difficulty of grasping this trend is increasing, recommending careful positioning for the next phase of the market, particularly focusing on the AI industry chain as a core direction [1][4] - Additionally, sectors experiencing supply-demand recovery and upward economic trends, such as storage and energy chains, are also highlighted as areas of importance [1] Market Data Analysis - The economic data released for November shows a continuation of the previous trend of marginal slowdown, with exports maintaining a high level of prosperity, while financial data indicates weak domestic demand [3][10] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a strong trend primarily driven by fresh vegetable prices, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has not shown a significant narrowing of decline, indicating a stable low price level [14][16] - The report notes that the social financing increased by 24,885 billion yuan in November, with a year-on-year increase of 1,597 billion yuan, while the increase in RMB loans was 3,181 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 917 billion yuan, mainly due to the weak performance in the household sector [11][14] Industry Configuration - The report suggests continuing to focus on the AI industry chain for investment opportunities, indicating that the current growth style and communication sector are at relatively low turnover rates, implying a significant potential for short-term price increases [24][35] - The analysis of turnover rates indicates that during the first phase of the growth industry cycle, turnover rates can serve as an effective auxiliary indicator for observing the growth style and strong main lines, with high turnover rates often preceding market corrections [24][35] - The report outlines a three-phase framework for the growth industry cycle, emphasizing that the current market is still in the early stages of this cycle, with significant room for growth remaining [25][35] Specific Sector Insights - The AI industry is identified as a core main line with a clear upward trend, and the report suggests that adjustments in this sector provide good opportunities for future positioning [37] - The report also highlights the importance of sectors experiencing supply-demand improvements, particularly in storage and energy chains, which are expected to benefit from AI-driven demand and other market dynamics [37][39]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to mitigate the risks associated with price fluctuations of key raw materials such as lead and lithium by engaging in futures hedging activities, with a maximum margin and premium amount not exceeding 60 million yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Business Strategy - The core objective of the hedging business is to use financial derivatives to hedge against the impact of raw material price volatility on production and operations, ensuring cost stability and sustained performance [2]. - The company will utilize its own funds for this hedging activity, which will be valid for 12 months from the date of approval by the shareholders' meeting, with the capacity for the amount to be reused [2][5]. Group 2: Risk Management - The company has identified seven categories of risks associated with the hedging business, including policy risk, basis risk, and funding risk, and has developed multi-dimensional risk control measures [3]. - Specific measures include establishing a hedging policy to standardize decision-making and risk control processes, strict limits on margin and contract value to ensure manageable risk exposure, and collaboration with professional institutions to build a stable trading system [3]. Group 3: Market Perspective - Analysts highlight that the company's decision to engage in hedging reflects a proactive management approach to mitigate cyclical fluctuations, which is crucial given that lead and lithium constitute a significant portion of production costs [4]. - The company emphasizes adherence to the principle of "hedging" without engaging in speculative trading, ensuring that the scale of the hedging activities aligns with actual operational needs, thus maintaining overall risk at a controllable level [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the electricity, utilities, and renewable energy sectors over the next 12 months, with an average stock return exceeding 100% in 2025 [2]. Core Insights - China's electricity demand is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%-9% from 2028 to 2030, surpassing market expectations by 4-5 percentage points, driven by AI data centers, manufacturing electricity demand from exports, and the electrification process [1][3]. - The global shortage of power equipment presents opportunities for Chinese companies to act as major international brand suppliers and to increase their market share [3][8]. - Investment in power supply equipment for AI data centers accounts for approximately 15% of total capital expenditure, creating new market opportunities for related companies [4][5]. Summary by Sections Electricity Demand Growth - China's electricity demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8%-9% from 2028 to 2030, with additional growth driven by AI data centers, manufacturing electricity demand from exports, and the electrification process [3][4]. - The construction scale of data centers in China is projected to be 5-6 GW from 2025 to 2027, significantly lower than the 40-45 GW expected in the U.S. during the same period, indicating substantial growth potential for China [4][5]. Power Equipment Exports - Chinese companies are positioned to benefit from global power equipment shortages, with opportunities to serve as suppliers for major global brands and to enhance their international market share [3][8]. - The penetration rates for transformers and switches in the global market are currently low at 7%-8%, and even lower for gas turbine blades at 1%-2%, suggesting significant room for growth [8][9]. AI Data Centers - The demand for high-power equipment in AI data centers is increasing, with capital expenditure in this area expected to create new market space for related enterprises [4][5]. - The anticipated growth in electricity demand from manufacturing, particularly due to exports, is expected to contribute an additional 1.5 percentage points annually to manufacturing electricity consumption [4][6]. Investment Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" indicates that electricity demand growth will drive related capital expenditures to increase by 12%, higher than the 11% growth during the previous plan, reflecting stronger government support for the sector [5]. - Recent policy changes encouraging the use of domestic chips for data center construction and providing additional subsidies may accelerate the resolution of supply chain issues, further promoting industry growth [5].

Market Overview - The overall market experienced a significant decline on October 10, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.94% and the ChiNext Index dropping by 4.55%. The total trading volume for the A-share market was 2.53 trillion, a slight decrease of 5.2% from the previous trading day [1] - There was a notable divergence in industry performance, with previously strong sectors like electronics (-4.71%), power equipment (-4.46%), and computers (-3.70%) leading the declines, while weaker sectors such as building materials (1.92%), coal (1.37%), and textiles (1.30%) saw gains [1] Market Dynamics - The sharp decline in the growth technology sector coincided with recent strong gains, indicating a risk-off sentiment among investors. The market structure shifted towards a broader decline in previously high-performing sectors, driven by profit-taking and event-driven impacts [2] - Several brokerage firms adjusted the margin financing rates for high static P/E ratio stocks to 0%, particularly affecting stocks in the electronics, computing, and related sectors that had seen significant price increases. This led to widespread declines in these stocks [2] Export Controls and Commodity Prices - Export controls on lithium batteries and artificial graphite negative materials raised concerns about the sustainability of export demand, resulting in declines in battery stocks and related energy metal stocks [3] - A significant drop in precious metal futures led to a corresponding decline in precious metal stocks. Following a period of rapid price increases, the market showed signs of overheating, culminating in a sharp correction [3] Long-term Market Outlook - The underlying support for a medium to long-term market uptrend remains intact, driven by the heightened focus of decision-makers on the capital market and the ongoing liquidity inflow amid an asset shortage [4] - The recent measures to adjust margin financing rates aim to curb speculative behavior and promote more rational investment decisions, suggesting a potential return to a more stable market environment [5] Key Investment Themes - The primary investment theme for the medium to long term is the establishment of a new growth industry cycle, particularly in AI computing infrastructure and its applications. Key sectors to watch include TMT, computing (CPO/PCB/liquid cooling/fiber optics), robotics, gaming, software, and military industry [6] - The second key theme focuses on sectors with strong fundamental support, including power equipment (wind power/storage/batteries/power supply), non-ferrous metals (rare earths/precious metals), and machinery (construction machinery). These sectors are expected to benefit from high demand and favorable market conditions [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the core view is that the new growth industry prosperity cycle has been established, with AI computing infrastructure holding a core position that remains unshaken, and the application end showing significant advantages in diffusion [5][6][17] - The report highlights that during the National Day holiday, overseas equity markets rose, and external risk appetite remained strong, with sectors such as biotechnology, semiconductor equipment, metal raw materials, and information technology leading in gains [5][16] - The report suggests that the current trend of rising markets is far from over, with a focus on AI computing infrastructure as the main line of investment, while also emphasizing sectors with hard support for performance, such as electric power equipment and non-ferrous metals [5][16] Group 2 - The report notes that the AI computing infrastructure sector is the most critical direction for investment, aligning with institutional preferences for growth trends, while AI applications are seen as the easiest to carry internal valuation diffusion [6][17] - The report identifies a second main line of investment in sectors with hard support or performance exceeding expectations, including electric power equipment (wind power, energy storage, batteries), non-ferrous metals (rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals), and machinery equipment [6][17] - The report emphasizes that the electric power equipment sector benefits from high demand for wind power exports, overseas energy storage, breakthroughs in solid-state batteries, and improvements in power supply equipment due to data center construction [6][17]

Group 1 - The main focus in October is the Fourth Plenary Session, which is expected to boost market risk appetite and generate numerous thematic investment opportunities, leading to a stable or upward-trending market [3][4] - The Fourth Plenary Session's "15th Five-Year Plan" recommendations are anticipated to enhance market risk appetite, with a focus on traditional manufacturing upgrades and strategic deployment of emerging and future industries [4][14] - Micro liquidity remains abundant, supporting the market, while macro liquidity continues to be loose, with no significant risks emerging from domestic economic conditions or US-China negotiations [5][18] Group 2 - The industry configuration emphasizes the establishment of a new growth cycle, with a focus on AI computing infrastructure, which is deemed irreplaceable, alongside attention to AI applications and military industries [3][6] - Key sectors with hard support for performance include power equipment (wind power/storage/batteries/power supply), non-ferrous metals (rare earth permanent magnets/precious metals), and machinery (engineering machinery) [6][8] - The first main line of investment is the new growth cycle in industries, particularly in AI computing infrastructure, with significant advantages in application expansion, focusing on areas such as TMT, computing power, and military [8][39] Group 3 - The second main line of investment focuses on sectors with strong performance support, including power equipment benefiting from high demand in wind power exports and overseas storage, as well as breakthroughs in solid-state batteries [8][38] - The report highlights that the growth in the AI computing infrastructure sector is expected to continue, with significant demand for related products such as PCBs and CPOs, driven by the rapid expansion of AI and data transmission needs [39][40] - The report anticipates that the global optical module market will see a year-on-year growth rate of 32% in 2025, indicating strong demand in the sector [40][41]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with a notable rebound in the ChiNext Index, driven by gains in computing power and new energy stocks, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.65% [2][11] - The market turnover reached 2.40 trillion yuan, with 4,558 stocks declining across the board [11][25] Market Performance - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.95%, while the Shanghai 50 Index dropped by 1.07%, and the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.68% [11] - In terms of sector performance, telecommunications (+1.68%) and electric power & new energy equipment (+1.29%) sectors saw gains, while defense and military (-5.84%) and comprehensive finance (-3.57%) sectors led the declines [11] Industry Trends - The rebound in the ChiNext Index was supported by a resurgence in computing hardware stocks, particularly in optical modules and optical communication [11] - The new energy supply chain, including photovoltaic inverters and energy storage, showed strong performance, likely influenced by surging overseas demand for energy storage [11] - Battery concepts, such as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries, also saw upward movement due to industry advancements [11] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, anticipating continued monetary and fiscal support, which historically has helped the market withstand external risks and volatility [11] - Investment strategies should focus on non-bank sectors in a "slow bull" market, with an emphasis on AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, and military sectors [11] - Additionally, sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics, such as metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming, are recommended for attention [11]

Market Overview - Major A-share indices experienced a collective adjustment, with the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index both declining over 2% [1] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45% to 3858 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.85% [1] - The total trading volume for the day reached 2.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 134.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3858.13, down 0.45% [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 12553.84, down 2.14% [2] - ChiNext Index: 2872.22, down 2.85% [2] - Total A-shares Index: 6133.63, down 1.48% [2] Sector Performance - The banking sector showed strength, with the leading stock being Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank [3] - The CPO concept saw significant pullbacks, with multiple stocks such as Guangxun Technology and Cambridge Technology hitting the daily limit down [3] - The communication equipment sector also faced declines, with stocks like Shenzhen Sanda A hitting the daily limit down [3] - The AI mobile phone, optical communication module, semiconductor, digital currency, and power supply equipment sectors experienced notable declines [3] - Conversely, the robotics sector rose against the trend, with stocks like Qinchuan Machine Tool and Julun Intelligent hitting the daily limit up [3]