吃喝板块周五（9月26日）震荡盘整，反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品ETF（515710）全天多数时间低位 震荡，截至收盘，场内价格跌0.16%。 成份股方面，白酒跌幅居前，部分大众品亦表现不佳，截至收盘，舍得酒业大跌超2%，泸州老窖、五 粮液、酒鬼酒等多股跌超1%，拖累板块走势。 | | | 分野 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 · | | | | | F9 盘院盘后 登加 九转 面线 工具 份 02 | | 食品ETF O | | | 515710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.61 | | | | 515710(食品ETF) 15:00 价 0.614 温度 -0.0011-0.16%) 均价 0.613 固交量 0 IOPY 0.6120 | | | | | | | | -0.001 -0.16% | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CINY 15/00/14 (diff) | | | 第 / / / | | 0.617 | | | ...

吃喝板块今日（9月26日）延续回调态势，反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品ETF（515710）开盘后持续低 位震荡，截至发稿，场内价格跌0.16%。 成份股方面，部分大众品及白酒龙头表现不佳。截至发稿，金达威跌超2%，广州酒家、汤臣倍健、泸 州老窖等跌超1%，贵州茅台、五粮液、洋河股份、山西汾酒等白酒龙头亦小幅飘绿。 显，各家酒企均积极创新产品、寻求渠道改革以保住自身份额，建议重视行业底部配置机会，关注双节 旺季渠道备货和动销端表现。 一键配置吃喝板块核心资产，重点关注食品ETF（515710）。根据中证指数公司统计，食品ETF （515710）跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，约6成仓位布局高端、次高端白酒龙头股，近4成仓位 兼顾饮料乳品、调味、啤酒等细分板块龙头股，前十权重股包括"茅五泸汾洋"、伊利股份、海天味业 等。场外投资者亦可通过食品ETF联接基金（A类012548/C类012549）对吃喝板块核心资产进行布局。 图片、数据来源：沪深交易所等，截至2025.9.26。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 · | | | | F9 盘前盘后 徽加 九转 画线 工具 @ 2 | > ...

Core Viewpoint - The current outlook for the liquor industry indicates that a bottom has formed due to multiple policy catalysts, with the liquor sector showing signs of recovery but still at historical lows. The industry is expected to benefit from improved economic expectations, with a focus on the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day for demand recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q2 2025, the liquor industry entered a deep adjustment phase under macroeconomic and policy pressures, with total revenue for the first half of 2025 reaching 239.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 94.6 billion yuan, down 1.2% [2]. - Excluding Moutai, other listed companies in the sector reported a total revenue of 150.4 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decline of 6.1%, with net profit at 49.2 billion yuan, down 8.9% [2]. - The overall price of mainstream liquor products has declined, but with improving industry sentiment and easing constraints in H2, a recovery is anticipated, particularly during the peak sales periods of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [2]. Group 2: Brand and Price Segmentation - High-end liquor brands are outperforming mid-range and regional brands, with high-end brands maintaining resilience through strong brand power and channel control. Moutai and other leading brands are stabilizing their market positions through inventory control and channel optimization [3]. - Mid-range liquor brands are experiencing more direct impacts from policy changes, with some brands like Fenjiu showing continued growth despite pressures [3]. - Regional leaders are focusing on maintaining market share and stabilizing core product prices, while brands like Jiangsu Yanghe and Jiuzi have seen significant adjustments [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on leading brands with strong market positions such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu during the economic transition [3]. - Regional leaders that maintain their core markets, such as Gujing Gongjiu and Jiuzi, are expected to sustain momentum as demand recovers [3]. - Brands that have actively managed their financials during this adjustment period, like Shede and Yanghe, are also recommended for attention [3].

Group 1: Automotive Industry Insights - NIO's new ES8 and Geely's Galaxy M9 have launched pre-sales, marking significant new entries in the mid-to-large smart SUV market [3][4] - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the week of August 18-22, 2025, with the automotive index rising by 4.7% [3] - The new NIO ES8 features significant upgrades in size, comfort, technology, and performance, with a starting price of 416,800 CNY and a peak power of 520 kW [3] - Geely's Galaxy M9, priced between 193,800 CNY and 258,800 CNY, boasts advanced features including a 30-inch 6K screen and a high-performance Qualcomm 8295P chip [4] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy, supporting upward consumer spending [7] Group 2: PCB Tool Industry Insights - Ding Tai High-Tech reported a 26.9% year-on-year revenue increase to 904 million CNY in H1 2025, with a net profit growth of 79.8% [9][10] - The company is experiencing a significant increase in high-end PCB demand, driven by hardware upgrades in AI servers and high-speed switches [13] - Ding Tai's gross margin improved to 39.24% in H1 2025, reflecting enhanced cost control and operational efficiency [11][12] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with monthly output of micro-drills exceeding 100 million units [13] Group 3: Power Industry Insights - Guodian Power's revenue decreased by 9.5% year-on-year to 77.65 billion CNY in H1 2025, with a net profit decline of 45.1% [15][17] - The company plans to increase its cash dividend payout ratio to at least 60% of net profit from 2025 to 2027 [15][16] - Despite the revenue decline, the adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 showed a significant increase of 302.5% year-on-year, primarily due to investment gains [17][18] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by new water and wind power installations planned for 2026 [18] Group 4: Medical Device Industry Insights - Antu Bio reported a revenue of 2.06 billion CNY in H1 2025, a decrease of 6.65% year-on-year, with a net profit of 571 million CNY [20][21] - The company is increasing its R&D investment, which accounted for 16.99% of revenue in H1 2025, focusing on new product development [22] - Antu Bio's Q2 2025 net profit margin improved to 28.65%, reflecting operational efficiency despite a slight decline in gross margin [21][22] Group 5: Macro Economic Insights on US Debt - The US federal debt has reached 37 trillion USD as of August 11, 2025, with a significant increase in interest burden, projected to reach 1.13 trillion USD in FY 2024 [24][28][31] - The rapid growth of US debt has raised concerns about sustainability, with projections indicating a potential increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio to over 130% by 2032 [28][29] - The demand for US debt is under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and declining foreign investment in US treasuries [30]

食品饮料行业 超配（维持） 白酒估值回暖，关注中报业绩 事件： 近日，白酒估值阶段性回暖，市场情绪有所修复。 点评： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 跟 踪 点 评 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 白酒行业动态跟踪点评 | | | ◼ 预计白酒Q2业绩承压。5月18日，新华社发布了中共中央、国务院印发的修订后的《党政机关厉行节约 反对浪费条例》。在公务接待中，新增"工作餐不得提供高档菜肴，不得提供香烟，不上酒。"该条例 发布后，对白酒政务消费场景产生扰动。同时，短期内市场悲观情绪放大，对白酒商务等消费场景产 生连带效应，一定程度上影响白酒整体动销。目前，水井坊、酒鬼酒发布2025年中期业绩预告，业绩 同比均出现不同程度下滑，主要系二季度政商务宴请等消费场景持续承压，白酒修复节奏放缓。从目 前实际需求来看，预计二季度白酒业绩面临压力测试。 ◼ 纠偏后，白酒企稳。6月17日，人民网发布评论称"禁止违规吃喝，不是吃喝都违规"；6月19日，新华 社发文称"整治违规吃喝，不是一阵风不能一刀切"，对 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly for the liquor sector, indicating a positive outlook based on policy support and expected recovery in demand [1]. Core Insights - China's consumption policies are positively oriented, leading to an uplift in expectations for the liquor industry. The government has emphasized the need to boost consumption and expand domestic demand through various initiatives [7][32]. - The liquor industry's performance is expected to show differentiation, with a forecast of a "front low and back high" trend for the year, as demand gradually recovers and the previous year's low base effects come into play [7][32]. - Liquor valuations are currently below historical averages, suggesting potential for recovery as market sentiment improves amid easing external uncertainties [7][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Positive Policy Orientation and Liquor Recovery Expectations - The report highlights that recent government meetings have focused on boosting consumption and investment efficiency, which is expected to positively impact the liquor market [7][32]. - The liquor market has experienced a three-year adjustment period, and the current economic recovery is anticipated to drive the liquor cycle upward [15][32]. 2. Liquor Sales Stability and Confidence Boosting Measures - Liquor sales during the Spring Festival saw a decline of approximately 10% year-on-year, but there are signs of improvement in demand post-holiday [36]. - Companies are implementing inventory control measures to stabilize prices during the off-season, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [33][38]. - High-end liquor prices are expected to remain stable, with key brands maintaining their pricing strategies amid positive consumption policies [39]. 3. Market Dynamics and Company Strategies - The report notes that leading liquor companies are adopting pragmatic strategies focused on stability and quality, with many emphasizing consumer-centric approaches in their business models [44][46]. - Several companies, including Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, are actively engaging in share buybacks and increasing their holdings to bolster market confidence [48]. 4. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as regional brands showing strong sales performance [7][32]. - It also recommends monitoring companies that have experienced significant declines and may be poised for recovery, such as Shede Liquor and Shui Jing Fang [7][32].