【现货消息】 春节期间，烧碱现货无变化，液氯仍维持补贴。 期货研究 烧碱：成本支撑，震荡为主 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 05合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2243 640 2000 -243 2026 年 2 月 24 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 期货研究 春节期间，液氯维持弱势，山东液氯价格维持补贴，对烧碱价格产生支撑。春节后，烧碱高库存情况下， 短期大幅上涨空间或有限。考虑到节后仅 4 个交易日就进入 03 合约交割，目前烧碱仓单 895 手，交割压力 仍较大。市场或先交易交割压力，之后再考虑未来减产预期，下游需求环比改善等。 从基本面看，氧化铝随着产能减产，供需结构逐渐逆转，关注后期大规模产能投产带来的增量需求。非 铝下游季节性淡季，3 月份刚需将持续回升，出口保持坚挺，美国价格偏高，欧洲转向亚洲采购烧碱。供应 端看，山东现货价格已贴近现金流成本，3 月份之后减产和降负预期增强。 整体看，液氯持续补贴导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with a shift in focus from "weak demand" to "weak supply-demand balance" as production cuts are implemented by suppliers [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - The supply of industrial silicon is tightening, with low operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan, and some companies in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia planning maintenance or production cuts due to ongoing losses [1][2]. - A major enterprise in Xinjiang is expected to implement production cuts starting in February, potentially affecting about 50% of its capacity for approximately one month, which has positively influenced market sentiment [1]. Demand Side Summary - Overall downstream demand remains weak, with the polysilicon price stable but inventory levels continuing to rise, limiting the efficiency of procurement despite short-term boosts from export tax policy changes [2]. - The organic silicon market is experiencing low trading activity, and aluminum alloy demand is marginally weakening, leading to primarily just-in-time purchasing for industrial silicon [2]. Price Summary - As of January 28, the industrial silicon futures price was reported at 8,760 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 60 yuan/ton [1]. - The national average price for industrial silicon was stable at 9,245 yuan/ton, with specific regional prices in Xinjiang at 8,810 yuan/ton, Yunnan at 10,005 yuan/ton, and Sichuan at 10,050 yuan/ton [3][4]. - Export FOB prices have decreased by 50 USD/ton due to weak overseas demand [1][2].

Group 1 - The U.S. Energy Secretary, Granholm, called for a doubling of global oil production to meet rising demand and prevent energy poverty, highlighting significant challenges in global energy supply and access [3][20] - Following this announcement, international oil prices experienced a decline, with WTI crude futures down by 1.57% and Brent crude futures down by 1.23% [6][23] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a significant oversupply in the global oil market in the first quarter of 2026 unless major supply disruptions occur, with U.S. crude inventories increasing by 3 million barrels last week [12][29] Group 2 - Precious metals saw a rise, with London gold prices increasing by 3.31% to $4935.75 per ounce, and London silver prices rising nearly 6% [6][23] - The Turkish central bank announced a 100 basis point cut in its policy rate, reducing it from 38% to 37%, which led to a decline of over 2% in the main banking index [10][28] - Analysts noted that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to influence oil prices, with potential for increased volatility due to U.S. military presence and actions against Iran [30][31]

Group 1: Report Title and General Situation - The report is titled "New Energy and Non - Ferrous Metals Daily Report | December 23, 2025", stating that the sentiment of supply disruption in Indonesian nickel mines continues, and nickel and stainless steel maintain a rebound [1] Group 2: Nickel Variety Analysis Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the main contract 2602 of Shanghai nickel opened at 116,600 yuan/ton and closed at 121,260 yuan/ton, a change of 4.55% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 196,376 (-14,261) lots, and the open interest was 57,011 (18,484) lots. The futures showed a strong rebound with high opening and high closing, driven by the resonance of Indonesian production - cut expectations and capital sentiment. However, due to factors such as high inventory and off - season demand, the short - term rebound cannot change the long - term supply surplus pattern [2] - In the nickel ore market, new tenders have started, and the price of nickel ore has remained stable. In the Philippines, the 1.3% nickel ore tender of the northern Benguet mine has not yet had a deal. Considering the impact of rainy weather, the shipping efficiency is acceptable. Downstream factories' production plans remain unchanged, and most need to stock up before the Spring Festival, so the mentality of pressing prices for raw material nickel ore procurement may slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase II) has fallen by 0.11 - 0.18 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26, expected to remain flat [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 124,900 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. With the sharp rise in futures prices, downstream wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and trading is average. The spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel are mostly stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by 100 yuan/ton to 6,700 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 38,922 (1,320) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,550 (612) tons [3] Strategy - With high inventory and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy for unilateral trading is mainly range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trades [4] Group 3: Stainless Steel Variety Analysis Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,487 (-107,409) lots, and the open interest was 108,021 (-4,171) lots. The futures showed characteristics of "passively following the rise, shrinking volume, and weak rebound", reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards the fundamentals of stainless steel itself. In the short term, it may fluctuate with nickel prices, but in the long term, the supply - demand contradiction will still dominate the price [4] - With the strengthening of the futures market, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and they mainly purchase on demand. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,900 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,900 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 180 to 380 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron has changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 885.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - With low demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless steel is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation state. The unilateral trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trades [6] Group 4: Other Information - The report provides 14 figures, including LME closing and spot prices, Shanghai nickel main contract closing and SMM spot prices, refined nickel import profits and losses, etc., with data sources mainly from SMM and MySteel [7] - The analysts of this report are Feng Fan, Chen Sijie, and Shi Cheng, and the contact person is Lin Yihang, along with their corresponding qualification numbers [37][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices opened high and closed low. The market is expected to remain in a weak supply - demand situation in December. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, with potential to reach 10000 yuan/ton if production drops significantly, or fall to 7500 yuan/ton under certain negative scenarios. Attention should be paid to position management [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices are oscillating higher. There is a contradiction between the strong futures market and weak spot demand. The current price is in a high - level oscillation. Future trends depend on the extent of production cuts. The trading strategy for the main contract (now 2605) is to wait and see [3]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, but Indonesian exports increased in November, causing tin prices to decline. However, considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider buying on dips [5]. Nickel - The nickel market is under fundamental pressure. Macro factors have limited impact on nickel prices. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price has fallen, and domestic inventory is increasing rapidly. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 110000 - 118000 yuan/ton [7]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure is slightly relieved, and nickel - iron prices have stopped falling, providing cost support. However, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory reduction is insufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose overall. The fundamentals are in a situation of strong supply and demand. The market is affected by news such as the slow resumption of production of large mines. The price may be strong in the short - term under the influence of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement in the off - season [10]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina supply is in an oversupply situation, with high inventory suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with the main contract reference range of 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but may face a pullback. The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate between 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [12]. Zinc - Zinc prices are oscillating. The supply side is gradually shifting from loose to tight, and demand has shown structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory, with the main contract support at 23000 - 23200 yuan/ton [15]. Copper - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The high price is driven by supply - inventory imbalance and macro factors. The supply side may face tightness, and the demand is being suppressed. The price is expected to have limited downside space, with the main contract support at 90000 - 91000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are oscillating strongly, with strong cost support but weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement in scrap aluminum supply and downstream purchasing rhythm [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained stable on December 12 compared to December 11, while the basis decreased significantly. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 16.39% [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 150.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, while polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Most inventories increased slightly on a weekly or daily basis, such as the Xinjiang factory - level inventory increasing by 3.39% on a weekly basis [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, while the N - type material basis decreased by 41.13% [3]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads**: The main contract of polysilicon futures rose by 2.56%. The spreads between different contracts showed significant fluctuations, such as the near - month to the first - continuous contract spread decreasing by 1206.25% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. Polysilicon imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39% [3]. Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices decreased by 1.76% on December 16 compared to the previous value, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 22.73% [5]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratios**: The import loss decreased by 8.14%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 18.06% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. Refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 7.66%, and social inventory increased by 5.59% [5]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices decreased by 0.72% and 0.70% respectively. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 1.92% [7]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Production Costs**: The production cost of integrated MHP - based electrolytic nickel increased by 0.19%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte - based electrolytic nickel decreased by 3.60% [7]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed small changes, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased by 5.10%, and social inventory increased by 3.73% [7]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable, while that of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 20.99% [8]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of most raw materials remained stable, such as the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remaining at 57 US dollars/wet ton [8]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed slightly, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36%. Stainless steel imports increased by 3.18%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.69%, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.30% [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.69% and 0.71% respectively. The basis increased by 0.69% [10]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 120 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11%. In October, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [10]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.54%, and the alumina average price remained stable. The electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased by 1977 yuan/ton [12]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different aluminum contracts showed various changes, such as the AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 35 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, and overseas production decreased by 3.50%. In October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 0.61%, and exports decreased by 15.18% [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.17%, and the aluminum rod social inventory increased by 8.58% [12]. Zinc - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.97%, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratios**: The import loss decreased by 813.46 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.03 [15]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. In October, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79% [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 7.57%, and LME inventory increased by 4.12% [15]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 1.42%, and the premium increased by 80 yuan/ton [16]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread decreasing by 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and in October, imports decreased by 15.61%. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 0.51% [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.62%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58%, and the SHFE inventory increased by 0.54% [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.69%. The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 25 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84%. In October, imports decreased by 7.06%, and exports increased by 31.49% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08% [18].

Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the red date futures contract for 2601 was 10,735 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous day [1] - The current price of first-grade gray dates in Hebei is 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of CJ01-1235, which decreased by 65 [1] - Xinjiang gray dates are entering the sugar accumulation stage, with a focus on precise weather control and disease prevention [1] Market Analysis - The price of red dates rose yesterday, with reports of minor damage in some production areas and slight fluctuations in sales area prices [2] - The expected inventory for the 2024 production season is high, but the quality is poor, leading to a gradual transition from the off-season to the peak season [2] - The estimated new season production is between 560,000 to 620,000 tons, with strong expectations for a reduction in output [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral, with a focus on the impact of rainfall on the quality of new season dates [3] - If future assessments of production and quality do not meet current expectations, the upward trend in red dates may continue [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, leading to short - term profit - taking in the index. The technology sector still dominates the market, but with the holiday approaching, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may have a high of 1.8% without incremental negative news, and the short - term downward movement is limited. The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level shock consolidation, and silver fluctuates in the 41 - 42.5 - dollar range [2]. - The EC (European line) of the container shipping index continues to decline, and the steel price drops with the convergence of the coil - rebar spread [2]. - The iron ore price is supported by the recovery of shipments, the increase in hot metal, and restocking demand. The coal and coke futures have a rebound expectation [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disturbances and interest rate cuts [2]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors like supply - demand expectations, new device production, and检修 (maintenance) [2]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply prospects, inventory, and market demand [2]. - The prices of special and new - energy products are affected by factors such as production reduction expectations and macro - emotions [2] Group 3: Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The overseas interest rate cut led to a rise and then a fall in A - shares. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The capital situation remains tight, and the bond futures have a slight correction. It is recommended to operate within the range and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought at a low price below 3600 dollars (820 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on silver [2]. Black - **Steel**: Try short - term long positions during the correction and shrink the coil - rebar spread of the January contract. Do long - short operations between iron ore and hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Do long on the 2601 contract within the 780 - 850 range and go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Do long on the 2601 contracts of coking coal, coke, etc., within the corresponding price ranges and conduct long - short arbitrage [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The prices are affected by various factors, and different contracts have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 22500 [2]. - **Tin**: The main contract is expected to operate between 285000 - 265000 [2][3]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of strong short - term drivers, and attention should be paid to refinery start - up trends. Options can be considered after the volatility increases [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Different products have different operation suggestions based on supply - demand, production, and price trends [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oils**: The prices are affected by factors such as policies and supply - demand, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The prices are affected by factors such as supply pressure and market demand, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices are affected by factors such as supply prospects and inventory, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. Special and New - Energy - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass, rubber, etc. are affected by factors such as production and sales and macro - drivers, and most are recommended to wait and see [2]. - **New - Energy Products**: The prices of polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by factors such as production reduction expectations and macro - emotions, and corresponding operation suggestions are given [2].

Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights a bullish sentiment in the photovoltaic industry, driven by anticipated supply reductions and proactive inventory strategies from downstream manufacturers [4][6][7]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices have increased due to proactive purchasing strategies from downstream manufacturers, who are concerned about future price hikes and supply shortages [5][6]. - Despite high inventory levels of approximately 400,000 tons, expectations of significant production cuts in October due to seasonal factors are leading to a tightening supply outlook [4][6]. Group 3: Wafer Market - The wafer market is experiencing a recovery in profitability and operational rates, with current inventory levels around 16 GW considered healthy [9][10]. - Demand for wafers is supported by increased production in the battery segment and proactive inventory strategies from battery manufacturers [10][11]. Group 4: Cell Market - The overall inventory of solar cells is declining, with a healthy level maintained at around 5 days for specialized manufacturers [12]. - Demand for solar cells is bolstered by proactive purchasing from downstream component manufacturers, who are anticipating further price increases [13][14]. Group 5: Module Market - The price of photovoltaic modules has shifted upward, with current market prices in the range of RMB 0.66-0.68 per watt, indicating a positive short-term outlook [15][16]. - The fourth quarter is expected to be a traditional peak season, with strong demand and supportive policies contributing to a bullish market consensus [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the apple and red date industries are neutral [4][8] Report Core Viewpoints - The apple market currently has no significant contradictions in its fundamentals. With low remaining inventory in the origin and little change expected in the new season's production compared to last year, short - term prices are expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [4] - In the red date market, there is a large divergence in the market's expectations for the new - season production. The market has been trading around the expectation of a new - season production cut since June. Under the condition that the production cut cannot be disproven, the futures price may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, considering the high inventory of old dates, if the production cut is less than expected, prices may turn weak [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8278 yuan/ton, up 154 yuan/ton or 1.90% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, also unchanged. The spot basis AP10 - 778 in Shandong and AP10 + 722 in Shaanxi both decreased by 154 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - In Shaanxi, the early - maturing paper - bag Gala is in the middle - to - late stage, with a low proportion of high - quality goods. The price of ordinary goods is chaotic. In Shandong, the trading atmosphere of inventory apples is not strong, with some fruit farmers offering price cuts. The large - sized fruit has poor demand. In the Guangdong wholesale market, the number of apple trucks has increased, but the terminal sales are slow, with high - quality goods selling better than low - quality ones [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The remaining Gala apples in the western region have uneven quality and chaotic prices. The inventory has a high proportion of large - sized fruit, and the sales are slow. The overall trend of early - maturing apples is polarized, and the inventory apples are running weakly. The low inventory level supports the price of inventory apples. With the concentrated supply of Gala apples in northern Shaanxi and Gansu this week, the inventory apples are expected to remain stable but weak in the short term [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. Given the low inventory and stable new - season production expectations, short - term prices are expected to be stable. Follow - up attention should be paid to the listing and trading of new - season early - maturing apples [4] Red Date Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11360 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1760 increased by 50 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - Red dates in Xinjiang are entering the sugar - accumulating stage. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on quality. In the Hebei and Guangdong markets, the arrival of red dates is relatively small, and merchants purchase according to demand, with general trading volume [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell yesterday. The arrival of goods in the sales areas has decreased, and merchants purchase on - demand, resulting in general trading in the downstream market. The market has high sensitivity to weather changes in the production areas. There is a large divergence in the market's expectations for the new - season production [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral stance. In the short term, the futures price may rise due to capital sentiment. However, considering the high inventory of old dates, if the production cut is less than expected, prices may turn weak [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red dates: Neutral to bullish [8] Core Views - Apple: The apple market is currently in a relatively stable state with no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to remain stable. The overall apple spot market is in a dull state, with low inventory levels supporting the price of inventory fruits. The quality of early - maturing fruits is poor, leading to mediocre sales of both early - maturing and inventory fruits. The supply of early - maturing varieties such as Gala in the western region and Luoli in Shandong will be on the market successively, and attention should be paid to the coloring of Gala, as a concentrated supply of red fruits may impact inventory fruits [3][4] - Red dates: The red date market has intensified differences in the new - season production forecast. The short - term trend of the futures market may still be oscillating strongly under the influence of capital sentiment. However, since red dates are still in the traditional off - season of consumption and the inventory of old dates remains high, if the production reduction expectation cannot be fulfilled, the price of red dates may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [7][8] Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8178 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.63% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 578 in Qixia was down 51 from the previous day, and the spot basis AP10 + 822 in Luochuan was down 51 from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 11550 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.16% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 2050 was up 135 from the previous day [5] Recent Market News Apple - The market of stored Fuji apples remains stable and dull, with slow overall transactions. Early - maturing Gala and Luoli apples have been successively listed for trading. In the western production areas, the remaining supply of goods is limited, and spot merchants mainly sell their own inventory. In the Shandong production area, the number of merchants is small, and they are still cautious in purchasing, mostly picking and bargaining. The overall出库 speed is slow, and the sales are still mainly low - priced striped red apples. In the early - maturing aspect, bagged Gala apples have been widely removed from bags and are successively listed for trading. This week, the supply of Gala apples in Tongchuan and Weinan will increase. In the Shandong production area, Luoli apples are being traded in an orderly manner, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is acceptable. The demand in the sales area market is poor, and the impact of seasonal fruits is still obvious [2] Red dates - In the main production areas of Xinjiang gray jujubes, jujube farmers are actively carrying out field management during the growth period of jujube trees. Some jujube orchards reported that the fruit - setting situation of the first - crop flowers was average, but the fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers was good due to the temperature drop and rainfall in early July. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 10 trucks of jujubes arrived at the parking area, with the reference prices of special - grade jujubes at 10.80 yuan/kg, first - grade at 9.80 yuan/kg, second - grade at 8.40 yuan/kg, and third - grade at 6.90 yuan/kg, and the prices increased slightly by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan/kg, with nearly 50% of the arrivals being traded. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 1 truck of jujubes arrived, and the price of high - quality goods was strong, with the reference prices of special - grade jujubes at 11.50 yuan/kg, first - grade at 10.50 yuan/kg, and second - grade at 8.50 yuan/kg, and the prices increased by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan/kg, with a small amount of trading in the morning market [6] Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price closed up, reaching a half - month high. The delayed supply of new - season Gala apples and the low inventory in recent years have led to a continued upward trend in the futures price. Attention should be paid to the impact of the large - scale listing of Gala apples on the market and the weather changes in the main production areas. Last week, the trading of early - maturing apples in the western region was limited, bagged Gala apples were sporadically listed, and bagged Qinyang apples were basically out of the market. In the Shandong production area, the sales of stored Fuji apples were slightly faster than the previous week, but the overall transactions were still limited, and merchants were not active in purchasing, especially for large and high - quality fruits. In terms of price, early - maturing fruits were weak, and the price of stored fruits was stable during the week. In the wholesale markets of the sales areas, the phenomenon of high - quality apples getting high prices was obvious, and the overall sales were still slow. This week, the supply of early - maturing bagged Gala apples will increase successively, and attention should be paid to the quality and price trends. Overall, the apple spot market remains dull, with low inventory levels supporting the price of stored fruits. The poor quality of early - maturing apples with many green - returning phenomena has led to mediocre sales of both early - maturing and stored fruits. This week, early - maturing varieties such as Gala in the western region and Luoli in the Shandong production area will be successively listed for supply. Attention should be paid to the coloring of Gala apples, and if red fruits are supplied in a concentrated manner, it may have a certain impact on stored fruits [3] Red dates - The red date futures closed down yesterday, ending a continuous upward trend. Festival stocking is gradually starting, but the consumption of inventory is limited. The temperature in the production areas is high, and the quality of new - season jujubes remains to be verified. Currently, jujubes are in the fruit expansion period, and attention should be continuously paid to the impact of weather changes in the production areas on the yield and quality. In the new - season production areas, some jujube orchards reported that the fruit - setting situation of the first - crop flowers was average, but the fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers was good due to the temperature drop and rainfall in early July. Last week, there was windy weather in some areas, causing some fruit drops in a small number of jujube orchards in windy areas, and attention should be continuously paid to weather changes this week. In the sales areas, the trading atmosphere in the market has improved recently, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. Since new jujubes entered the critical period of flowering and fruit - setting in June, the market has been continuously trading based on the expectation of new - season production reduction, and the sensitivity to new - season changes in the production areas has increased. According to the research data statistics of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this month was 9784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, indicating a decline in sample - point inventory [7] Strategy Apple - Maintain a neutral strategy. Since there are no prominent contradictions in the apple fundamentals, it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [4] Red dates - Adopt a neutral - to - bullish strategy. The differences in the new - season production forecast of red dates are intensifying, and the short - term trend of the futures market may still be oscillating strongly under the influence of capital sentiment. However, due to the high inventory of old dates and the traditional off - season of consumption, if the production reduction expectation cannot be fulfilled, the price of red dates may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [8]