Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the red date futures contract for 2601 was 10,735 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous day [1] - The current price of first-grade gray dates in Hebei is 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of CJ01-1235, which decreased by 65 [1] - Xinjiang gray dates are entering the sugar accumulation stage, with a focus on precise weather control and disease prevention [1] Market Analysis - The price of red dates rose yesterday, with reports of minor damage in some production areas and slight fluctuations in sales area prices [2] - The expected inventory for the 2024 production season is high, but the quality is poor, leading to a gradual transition from the off-season to the peak season [2] - The estimated new season production is between 560,000 to 620,000 tons, with strong expectations for a reduction in output [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral, with a focus on the impact of rainfall on the quality of new season dates [3] - If future assessments of production and quality do not meet current expectations, the upward trend in red dates may continue [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, leading to short - term profit - taking in the index. The technology sector still dominates the market, but with the holiday approaching, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may have a high of 1.8% without incremental negative news, and the short - term downward movement is limited. The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level shock consolidation, and silver fluctuates in the 41 - 42.5 - dollar range [2]. - The EC (European line) of the container shipping index continues to decline, and the steel price drops with the convergence of the coil - rebar spread [2]. - The iron ore price is supported by the recovery of shipments, the increase in hot metal, and restocking demand. The coal and coke futures have a rebound expectation [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disturbances and interest rate cuts [2]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors like supply - demand expectations, new device production, and检修 (maintenance) [2]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply prospects, inventory, and market demand [2]. - The prices of special and new - energy products are affected by factors such as production reduction expectations and macro - emotions [2] Group 3: Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The overseas interest rate cut led to a rise and then a fall in A - shares. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The capital situation remains tight, and the bond futures have a slight correction. It is recommended to operate within the range and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought at a low price below 3600 dollars (820 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on silver [2]. Black - **Steel**: Try short - term long positions during the correction and shrink the coil - rebar spread of the January contract. Do long - short operations between iron ore and hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Do long on the 2601 contract within the 780 - 850 range and go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Do long on the 2601 contracts of coking coal, coke, etc., within the corresponding price ranges and conduct long - short arbitrage [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The prices are affected by various factors, and different contracts have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 22500 [2]. - **Tin**: The main contract is expected to operate between 285000 - 265000 [2][3]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of strong short - term drivers, and attention should be paid to refinery start - up trends. Options can be considered after the volatility increases [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Different products have different operation suggestions based on supply - demand, production, and price trends [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oils**: The prices are affected by factors such as policies and supply - demand, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The prices are affected by factors such as supply pressure and market demand, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices are affected by factors such as supply prospects and inventory, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. Special and New - Energy - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass, rubber, etc. are affected by factors such as production and sales and macro - drivers, and most are recommended to wait and see [2]. - **New - Energy Products**: The prices of polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by factors such as production reduction expectations and macro - emotions, and corresponding operation suggestions are given [2].

Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights a bullish sentiment in the photovoltaic industry, driven by anticipated supply reductions and proactive inventory strategies from downstream manufacturers [4][6][7]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices have increased due to proactive purchasing strategies from downstream manufacturers, who are concerned about future price hikes and supply shortages [5][6]. - Despite high inventory levels of approximately 400,000 tons, expectations of significant production cuts in October due to seasonal factors are leading to a tightening supply outlook [4][6]. Group 3: Wafer Market - The wafer market is experiencing a recovery in profitability and operational rates, with current inventory levels around 16 GW considered healthy [9][10]. - Demand for wafers is supported by increased production in the battery segment and proactive inventory strategies from battery manufacturers [10][11]. Group 4: Cell Market - The overall inventory of solar cells is declining, with a healthy level maintained at around 5 days for specialized manufacturers [12]. - Demand for solar cells is bolstered by proactive purchasing from downstream component manufacturers, who are anticipating further price increases [13][14]. Group 5: Module Market - The price of photovoltaic modules has shifted upward, with current market prices in the range of RMB 0.66-0.68 per watt, indicating a positive short-term outlook [15][16]. - The fourth quarter is expected to be a traditional peak season, with strong demand and supportive policies contributing to a bullish market consensus [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the apple and red date industries are neutral [4][8] Report Core Viewpoints - The apple market currently has no significant contradictions in its fundamentals. With low remaining inventory in the origin and little change expected in the new season's production compared to last year, short - term prices are expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [4] - In the red date market, there is a large divergence in the market's expectations for the new - season production. The market has been trading around the expectation of a new - season production cut since June. Under the condition that the production cut cannot be disproven, the futures price may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, considering the high inventory of old dates, if the production cut is less than expected, prices may turn weak [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8278 yuan/ton, up 154 yuan/ton or 1.90% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, also unchanged. The spot basis AP10 - 778 in Shandong and AP10 + 722 in Shaanxi both decreased by 154 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - In Shaanxi, the early - maturing paper - bag Gala is in the middle - to - late stage, with a low proportion of high - quality goods. The price of ordinary goods is chaotic. In Shandong, the trading atmosphere of inventory apples is not strong, with some fruit farmers offering price cuts. The large - sized fruit has poor demand. In the Guangdong wholesale market, the number of apple trucks has increased, but the terminal sales are slow, with high - quality goods selling better than low - quality ones [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The remaining Gala apples in the western region have uneven quality and chaotic prices. The inventory has a high proportion of large - sized fruit, and the sales are slow. The overall trend of early - maturing apples is polarized, and the inventory apples are running weakly. The low inventory level supports the price of inventory apples. With the concentrated supply of Gala apples in northern Shaanxi and Gansu this week, the inventory apples are expected to remain stable but weak in the short term [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. Given the low inventory and stable new - season production expectations, short - term prices are expected to be stable. Follow - up attention should be paid to the listing and trading of new - season early - maturing apples [4] Red Date Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11360 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1760 increased by 50 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - Red dates in Xinjiang are entering the sugar - accumulating stage. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on quality. In the Hebei and Guangdong markets, the arrival of red dates is relatively small, and merchants purchase according to demand, with general trading volume [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell yesterday. The arrival of goods in the sales areas has decreased, and merchants purchase on - demand, resulting in general trading in the downstream market. The market has high sensitivity to weather changes in the production areas. There is a large divergence in the market's expectations for the new - season production [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral stance. In the short term, the futures price may rise due to capital sentiment. However, considering the high inventory of old dates, if the production cut is less than expected, prices may turn weak [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red dates: Neutral to bullish [8] Core Views - Apple: The apple market is currently in a relatively stable state with no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to remain stable. The overall apple spot market is in a dull state, with low inventory levels supporting the price of inventory fruits. The quality of early - maturing fruits is poor, leading to mediocre sales of both early - maturing and inventory fruits. The supply of early - maturing varieties such as Gala in the western region and Luoli in Shandong will be on the market successively, and attention should be paid to the coloring of Gala, as a concentrated supply of red fruits may impact inventory fruits [3][4] - Red dates: The red date market has intensified differences in the new - season production forecast. The short - term trend of the futures market may still be oscillating strongly under the influence of capital sentiment. However, since red dates are still in the traditional off - season of consumption and the inventory of old dates remains high, if the production reduction expectation cannot be fulfilled, the price of red dates may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [7][8] Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8178 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.63% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 578 in Qixia was down 51 from the previous day, and the spot basis AP10 + 822 in Luochuan was down 51 from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 11550 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.16% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 2050 was up 135 from the previous day [5] Recent Market News Apple - The market of stored Fuji apples remains stable and dull, with slow overall transactions. Early - maturing Gala and Luoli apples have been successively listed for trading. In the western production areas, the remaining supply of goods is limited, and spot merchants mainly sell their own inventory. In the Shandong production area, the number of merchants is small, and they are still cautious in purchasing, mostly picking and bargaining. The overall出库 speed is slow, and the sales are still mainly low - priced striped red apples. In the early - maturing aspect, bagged Gala apples have been widely removed from bags and are successively listed for trading. This week, the supply of Gala apples in Tongchuan and Weinan will increase. In the Shandong production area, Luoli apples are being traded in an orderly manner, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is acceptable. The demand in the sales area market is poor, and the impact of seasonal fruits is still obvious [2] Red dates - In the main production areas of Xinjiang gray jujubes, jujube farmers are actively carrying out field management during the growth period of jujube trees. Some jujube orchards reported that the fruit - setting situation of the first - crop flowers was average, but the fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers was good due to the temperature drop and rainfall in early July. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 10 trucks of jujubes arrived at the parking area, with the reference prices of special - grade jujubes at 10.80 yuan/kg, first - grade at 9.80 yuan/kg, second - grade at 8.40 yuan/kg, and third - grade at 6.90 yuan/kg, and the prices increased slightly by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan/kg, with nearly 50% of the arrivals being traded. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 1 truck of jujubes arrived, and the price of high - quality goods was strong, with the reference prices of special - grade jujubes at 11.50 yuan/kg, first - grade at 10.50 yuan/kg, and second - grade at 8.50 yuan/kg, and the prices increased by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan/kg, with a small amount of trading in the morning market [6] Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price closed up, reaching a half - month high. The delayed supply of new - season Gala apples and the low inventory in recent years have led to a continued upward trend in the futures price. Attention should be paid to the impact of the large - scale listing of Gala apples on the market and the weather changes in the main production areas. Last week, the trading of early - maturing apples in the western region was limited, bagged Gala apples were sporadically listed, and bagged Qinyang apples were basically out of the market. In the Shandong production area, the sales of stored Fuji apples were slightly faster than the previous week, but the overall transactions were still limited, and merchants were not active in purchasing, especially for large and high - quality fruits. In terms of price, early - maturing fruits were weak, and the price of stored fruits was stable during the week. In the wholesale markets of the sales areas, the phenomenon of high - quality apples getting high prices was obvious, and the overall sales were still slow. This week, the supply of early - maturing bagged Gala apples will increase successively, and attention should be paid to the quality and price trends. Overall, the apple spot market remains dull, with low inventory levels supporting the price of stored fruits. The poor quality of early - maturing apples with many green - returning phenomena has led to mediocre sales of both early - maturing and stored fruits. This week, early - maturing varieties such as Gala in the western region and Luoli in the Shandong production area will be successively listed for supply. Attention should be paid to the coloring of Gala apples, and if red fruits are supplied in a concentrated manner, it may have a certain impact on stored fruits [3] Red dates - The red date futures closed down yesterday, ending a continuous upward trend. Festival stocking is gradually starting, but the consumption of inventory is limited. The temperature in the production areas is high, and the quality of new - season jujubes remains to be verified. Currently, jujubes are in the fruit expansion period, and attention should be continuously paid to the impact of weather changes in the production areas on the yield and quality. In the new - season production areas, some jujube orchards reported that the fruit - setting situation of the first - crop flowers was average, but the fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers was good due to the temperature drop and rainfall in early July. Last week, there was windy weather in some areas, causing some fruit drops in a small number of jujube orchards in windy areas, and attention should be continuously paid to weather changes this week. In the sales areas, the trading atmosphere in the market has improved recently, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. Since new jujubes entered the critical period of flowering and fruit - setting in June, the market has been continuously trading based on the expectation of new - season production reduction, and the sensitivity to new - season changes in the production areas has increased. According to the research data statistics of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this month was 9784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, indicating a decline in sample - point inventory [7] Strategy Apple - Maintain a neutral strategy. Since there are no prominent contradictions in the apple fundamentals, it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [4] Red dates - Adopt a neutral - to - bullish strategy. The differences in the new - season production forecast of red dates are intensifying, and the short - term trend of the futures market may still be oscillating strongly under the influence of capital sentiment. However, due to the high inventory of old dates and the traditional off - season of consumption, if the production reduction expectation cannot be fulfilled, the price of red dates may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [8]

Market Overview - As of August 7, the mainstream price of Wuxi Hongwang's 304 cold-rolled coil is between 12,950-13,050 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 50 CNY/ton or 0.39% from the end of July, but down 5.80% year-on-year [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 103,226 tons of stainless steel warehouse receipts, an increase of 423 tons from the previous trading day [1] - A significant reduction in production has been announced by a Shandong hot-rolled steel plant due to provincial production control requirements, with a target of reducing annual output by 5% and halting long-term delivery obligations signed in August [1] Institutional Insights - New Lake Futures notes that while downstream demand for stainless steel remains weak and inventory levels are high, there is strong market expectation for production cuts by stainless steel companies, leading to anticipated price volatility in the short term [2] - Ruida Futures highlights that the Indonesian government's PNBP policy has increased nickel resource supply costs, but the rapid release of nickel pig iron capacity has led to a noticeable recovery in production and a decline in nickel pig iron prices, reducing raw material cost support [3] - The production profits for steel mills have improved significantly due to rising steel prices and weaker raw material cost increases, with expectations of increased production in August [3] - The end of the traditional consumption off-season is approaching, and optimistic expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season, along with favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, are likely to improve the supply-demand balance and market purchasing willingness [3] - Recent domestic stainless steel inventory reduction has alleviated market pressure, leading to an increase in spot prices [3] - Technical analysis indicates a strong bullish sentiment with a slight increase in positions and price rise, suggesting a light long position strategy [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [16] - **Sugar**: Long - term: oscillating with a downward bias; Short - term: maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [19] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and price outlooks. For example, the hog market shows a pattern of "weak present + strong future" due to policy - induced production - cut expectations; the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias considering overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic export expectations [11][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOA data shows a 9.01% month - on - month increase in estimated Malaysian palm oil production in July. The overall estimated production is 1.84 million tons. ITS and AmSpec data indicate a decline in July's Malaysian palm oil exports [8]. - **Logic**: Due to the expected high yield of US soybeans and concerns about demand, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil being stronger. The global and domestic supply - demand situation of different oils varies, with soybean oil having inventory increases and export expectations, palm oil facing inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil having high inventory [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, palm oil and soybean oil are likely to be stronger, influenced by the expected increase in overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic soybean oil export expectations [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 6, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different trends. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the good growth of US soybeans and the expected high yield, along with changes in trade relations and CFTC net short positions, affect the market. Domestically, in the short - term, due to the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. In the long - term, there is a potential supply gap in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Outlook**: In the next two weeks, the inventory of soybean meal may reach a peak. Spot and basis prices may oscillate at a low level. The far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price and the closing price of the main contract decreased [10]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, there are differences in the judgment of channel inventory, and the auction transaction rate of imported corn is low. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grains is low. Policy - wise, the transaction rate and premium of imported corn are decreasing [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is uncertainty in the old - crop inventory reduction. After the new - crop is listed, there is a downward pressure on prices [10]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the spot price of hogs in Henan decreased slightly, while the futures closing price increased [11]. - **Logic**: The proposed meeting by the China Animal Husbandry Association to discuss sow production cuts triggered market sentiment. In the short - term, large - scale farms are actively reducing weight and inventory, but the inventory of secondary - fattening by smallholders is high. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, policies may lead to a reduction in production capacity [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market shows large fluctuations. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are influenced by production - cut expectations [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained stable, and the prices of raw materials in the Thai market increased slightly [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is favorable, and there is some speculative sentiment in the market. The supply is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable in the short - term [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The BR futures rose slightly, driven by natural rubber and the macro - environment, and supported by the tight supply of butadiene. However, the fundamental driving force is not clear [15]. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 6, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton increased slightly [16]. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The price is oscillating within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread [16]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar decreased [17]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the new season is expected to have a loose supply. In the short - term, the supply pressure will increase due to the peak production and export season in Brazil and the concentrated import in China [17]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias. In the short - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained stable or decreased slightly [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated at a low level. The supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. However, the recent increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp prices is worth noting [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to the low - absorption long - matching opportunity when the main contract falls to 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: After the first - month delivery of logs, the short - term fundamentals changed little [19]. - **Logic**: The new foreign quotation has increased, but the domestic market is in the off - season. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range of 800 - 850, and the industrial side can participate in hedging according to its own costs [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report also mentions data monitoring for various products such as oils and fats, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the text [22][53][72].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6][8][9][11][13][14][16][17]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" associated production - cut expectation benefits have temporarily ended. Steel price upward momentum is weak due to impacts on finished product exports and lackluster spot price follow - up. However, high - temperature weather supports coal prices, and the iron ore shipment rush is basically over, with the furnace material fundamentals being acceptable. The industry's fundamentals are currently in a relatively balanced state, with limited contradictions in each link. Iron water has slightly declined but remains at a high level year - on - year, and steel inventories are low, limiting the downside space. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range, and future attention should be paid to policy implementation and the degree of demand weakening [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their quarterly shipment rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has remained stable, and steel enterprises' iron water production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrival volume and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2][8]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Two coal mines in Linfen and Changzhi, Shanxi, resumed production last weekend, with a total production capacity of 8.4 million tons, and the regional supply has recovered. Other regions' coal mines have basically maintained their previous production rhythms, and the overall supply is gradually increasing. On the import side, the Mongolian coal port transactions are active, and the regulatory area inventory continues to decline, but the China - Mongolia port will be closed from this Friday to next Tuesday. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream coking enterprises are actively purchasing, but there are signs of market waiting due to the expectation of coal mine复产. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [3]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese alloys**: Manganese ore prices have slightly declined. With the gradual recovery of Australian ore shipments, a slight increase in port inventory, and the arrival of forward low - price futures ore, there is further downward space for ore prices. On the supply side, in a profit - recovery environment, manufacturers' motivation to resume production has increased, and the daily production of manganese silicon has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the finished product output is currently at a high level and stable, but the terminal steel demand is in the off - season, the steel inventory reduction has slowed down, and there is a possibility of a slight decline in finished product output. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the bidding price of the landmark steel mill on the market [3]. - **Silicon iron**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, which increases the difficulty of market inventory reduction. The upward driving force for silicon iron prices is insufficient, but the industry is still in a loss state. With cost support, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate [3][6][16]. 3.4 Glass - In the off - season, glass demand is declining, the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken, and upstream inventories are accumulating, with off - season pressure still existing. The sales in Shahe are average, mainly driven by rigid demand. On the supply side, there are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line is planned to resume production soon, so the supply - side pressure still exists. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and the internal contradictions are not prominent. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. In the medium term, it remains to be seen whether downstream demand can be stimulated [6][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. There are rumors that the photovoltaic industry is "anti - involution", with an expected significant reduction in daily melting volume. Currently, the photovoltaic daily melting volume has slightly decreased, the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, and the demand expectation is weak. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to reduce prices. Emotions are interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities [6][13]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses - **Steel**: Overseas tariffs are constantly disturbing, and after the steel price increase, there are signs of a marginal weakening in steel export pressure. The off - season fundamentals of steel have limited contradictions, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate, and future attention should be paid to domestic and overseas policy disturbances and the sustainability of off - season demand [8]. - **Iron ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not obvious. After this round of upward movement, the futures price has reached an important resistance level, and the spot market is still mainly in a wait - and - see state. In the short term, the ore price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the maintenance situation in Tangshan [8]. - **Scrap steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both weakened marginally, and its own driving force is insufficient. After the macro - environment cools down, the price is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Coke**: The supply and demand of coke are gradually tightening, and the expectation of price increases is strengthening. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate, and future attention should be paid to whether the coal price can continue to rise [10][11][12]. - **Coking coal**: The upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the spot price is temporarily stable. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [11][13][14]. - **Silicon manganese**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon manganese is becoming more relaxed, and the difficulty of market inventory reduction is increasing. The upward driving force for futures prices is insufficient, but with cost support, the price's downside space is limited. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Silicon iron**: The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of market inventory reduction. The upward driving force for silicon iron prices is insufficient, but with cost support, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of silicon iron's electricity cost [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 2, 2025, the main glass futures contract rose 4.00% intraday, reaching 1028.00 yuan/ton, driven by multiple factors [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly adjusting and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index adjusting more significantly [7][8]. - Gold is expected to restart its upward trend after adjusting to an important support level, despite a recent adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates [11][12]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation mindset, considering supply increases, weakening iron - water production, and port inventory accumulation [15][16]. - The glass market should be viewed with a bullish - leaning oscillation mindset, affected by short - term sentiment and recent significant production cuts in photovoltaic glass [19]. - The soybean oil market is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, but short - sell lightly when the price reaches the 8050 - 8000 resistance area [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - The price increase of glass futures is due to production cut expectations (domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to cut production by 30% starting from July, and a company plans to shut down a production line for cold repair), policy factors (the Central Financial and Economic Commission's measures to address low - price competition and promote quality improvement), market sentiment and technical factors (previous oversold condition and cost support from strong soda ash prices) [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The market is expected to continue to oscillate, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly adjusting and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index adjusting more significantly [7][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold - After adjusting to an important support level, gold is likely to restart its upward trend. Although the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to a short - term adjustment, the long - term outlook remains bullish [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have resumed accumulation. The market should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation mindset, and the over - valuation risk of iron ore should be noted [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The market should be viewed with a bullish - leaning oscillation mindset. Although there has been significant production cut in photovoltaic glass recently, the supply side has not seen major cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not increased significantly [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - The market is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation. However, considering the current supply - demand situation and the upcoming seasonal increase in production and inventory, short - sell lightly when the price reaches the 8050 - 8000 resistance area [22].