记者丨 李益文 编辑丨叶映橙 视频丨曾婷芳 见习编辑陈泽锴 估值仍具潜力 尽管点位重回10年前，但各主要指数长期估值仍有上升潜力。据21财经·南财快讯记者统计， 截至10月28日，上证指数市盈率（PE-TTM）为17倍，虽位于近十年99.96%分位点（即比近 十年来0.04%的时间都低），但上市以来分位点仅为44.03%（即比上市以来55.97%的时间都 低），其长期估值水平仍处于历史相对低位。 深 证 成 指 市 盈 率 30.96 倍 ， 位 于 近 十 年 分 位 点 83% ， 市 净 率 （ PB-LF ） 近 十 年 分 位 点 仅 49.88%，估值压力有限。以沪深300为代表的大盘蓝筹估值同样较为稳健，其市盈率14.62 倍，处指数上市以来分位点69.48%，显著低于历史高点。 | | | | 各主要指数市盈率与市净率以及所处历史分位数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券简称 | 年初至今 | 当前市盈率 | 上市以来市盈率 | 当前市净率 | 上市以来市净率 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | (倍) | 分位数(%) | (倍) | ...

10月28日，A股市场迎来里程碑时刻，沪指盘中站上4000点整数关口，最高触及4010.73点，是自2015年 8月19日以来，时隔2474个交易日再度突破4000点。 尽管午后市场冲高回落，沪指收盘微跌0.22%报3988.22点，但A股全天成交额仍达2.16万亿元，连续127 个交易日突破万亿，市场交投活跃。截至目前，沪指年内累计涨幅已达18.99%，深证成指涨幅达 28.95%，科创50、创业板指分别上涨48.82%、50.8%。 估值仍具潜力 尽管点位重回10年前，但各主要指数长期估值仍有上升潜力。据21财经·南财快讯记者统计，截至10月 28日，上证指数市盈率（PE-TTM）为17倍，虽位于近十年99.96%分位点（即比近十年来0.04%的时间 都低），但上市以来分位点仅为44.03%（即比上市以来55.97%的时间都低），其长期估值水平仍处于 历史相对低位。 深证成指市盈率30.96倍，位于近十年分位点83%，市净率（PB-LF）近十年分位点仅49.88%，估值压力 有限。以沪深300为代表的大盘蓝筹估值同样较为稳健，其市盈率14.62倍，处指数上市以来分位点 69.48%，显著低于历史高点。 | ...

今年4月以来，A股重启涨势，但此次冲击4000点之旅并非一帆风顺，8月以来开始在3800点左右徘徊， 10月首次突破3900点后，10月10日美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体上发文称，美国将从11月1日起对中国 征收额外100%的关税，并对"所有关键软件"实施出口管制，10月13日，A股三大指数均跳空低开，沪指 低至3800点。 此后随着随着中美进行贸易谈判、美联储降息预期强化，国内进入四中全会、三季报景气验证等积极因 素影响，股市重回升势，10月26日，据新华社报道，中美双方在吉隆坡举行经贸磋商，就稳妥解决多项 重要经贸议题形成初步共识后，10月27日A股三大指数高开，沪指一度达3999点，距4000点仅一步之 遥，并最终于今日突破4000点。 杨德龙表示，本轮牛市主要受到政策面与资金面的双重推动。以沪深300为代表的主要指数估值水平低 于2015年高点，甚至有一些指数仍在历史平均水平附近。这说明当前市场可能仍处于牛市的上半场，突 破4000点并不意味着行情结束，而是可能行情新的起点。 10月28日，沪指盘中突破4000点大关，为2015年8月18日以来首次。前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙 认为，沪指突破4000 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 4000 points for the first time in ten years, marking a new high since August 19, 2015 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index increased by 0.52% and 1.35% respectively [1] Sector Performance - Coal, rare earths, optical modules, and memory sectors showed significant gains [3] - CPO concept stocks, such as New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang, reached historical highs during the trading session [3] - Agricultural Bank of China saw its stock rise over 1%, approaching a total market value of 3 trillion yuan, while Xiamen Bank surged over 5% and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank dropped over 4% [3] Historical Comparison - The current market conditions differ significantly from previous instances when the index was above 4000 points in 2007, 2008, and 2015 [7] - A-share total market capitalization has increased from 52 trillion yuan in 2015 to 107 trillion yuan in 2025, a growth of 105% [9] - The number of stocks has risen from 2662 to 5440, and the total number of A-share investors has grown from approximately 93.3 million to over 240 million, representing a 157% increase [9] - Financing balance has increased from 1.4 trillion yuan to 2.4 trillion yuan, a 71% rise [9] - Northbound capital holding A-shares has surged to 2.58 trillion yuan, a 2500% increase from the previous billion scale [9] - Public fund holdings have grown from 2 trillion yuan to 7.2 trillion yuan, a 260% increase [9] Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a "technology bull" driven by economic transformation and upgrades, contrasting with the "leverage bull" of 2015 [10] - The communication sector, driven by AI computing power, has seen a cumulative increase of 77.5% over the past year, leading the market [10] - Traditional sectors such as consumption, real estate, and energy have underperformed compared to the technology sector [10] Future Outlook - The current market is expected to continue its upward trend, with analysts suggesting that the rise is sustainable and healthy [10] - Short-term fluctuations may occur, but the overall sentiment remains positive, with expectations for new highs in the market [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has broken through the 4000-point mark for the first time in ten years, indicating strong confidence in China's economic future and capital market reforms, and signaling the start of a new bull market [1][3][7]. Market Performance - On October 28, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000.27 points, marking a significant milestone since August 19, 2015 [3]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares increased from approximately 68 trillion yuan to 107.87 trillion yuan within a year, reflecting a surge of 39.87 trillion yuan [3]. - Daily trading volume has significantly increased, with average daily trading exceeding 20 trillion yuan for 40 consecutive trading days, and several days surpassing 30 trillion yuan [4]. Economic Drivers - The rise in the index is attributed to the transformation of China's economy, with a focus on hard technology and new production capabilities, leading to an influx of capital into the market [5][8]. - The current market dynamics differ from the 2015 bull market, which was driven by leverage; the present market is characterized by rational valuations and structural differentiation [8][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the 4000-point level may serve as a starting point for a new market cycle, with expectations for continued upward movement in the index [8][10]. - The technology sector is expected to maintain strong performance, potentially leading to a prolonged "healthy bull" market if the current technology cycle continues [10][11]. - Historical data indicates that after minor adjustments in a bull market, sectors with upward trends, such as technology and cyclical industries, are likely to outperform [11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new bull market, marked by the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point threshold for the first time in ten years, indicating strong confidence in China's economic future and capital market reforms [3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen significantly from around 2800 points in September 2024 to over 4000 points in October 2025, reflecting a substantial market recovery [3]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares increased from approximately 68 trillion yuan to 106.6 trillion yuan within a year, representing a growth of 38.6 trillion yuan [3]. - Daily trading volume has surged, with average daily trading exceeding 2 trillion yuan for 40 consecutive trading days, peaking at 3.48 trillion yuan [4]. Market Drivers - The current bull market is driven by "hard technology" rather than the "leverage bull" seen in 2015, leading to more rational valuations and significant structural differentiation [6]. - The technology and new energy sectors have been the primary contributors to market gains, with leading stocks like CATL, BYD, and Cambricon reaching new historical highs [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may experience short-term fluctuations after breaking the 4000-point mark, as some investors may take profits [9]. - The sustainability of the bull market will depend on whether the "hard technology" sector can translate into continuous profit growth [9]. - Historical data indicates that after a bull market adjustment, sectors with upward trends, such as technology and cyclical industries, are likely to outperform [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a historic milestone with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark for the first time in ten years, indicating the start of a new bull market driven by "hard technology" rather than speculative leverage [1][2][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen significant growth, starting from around 2800 points in September 2024, reaching nearly 3500 points by June 2025, and surpassing 3900 points in October 2025 before breaking 4000 points [1]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares has increased from approximately 68 trillion yuan to 106.6 trillion yuan within a year, marking a rise of 38.6 trillion yuan [1]. Trading Activity - A-share trading volume and turnover have remained active, with daily trading volumes rising from below 800 billion yuan to a peak of 3.48 trillion yuan post-policy implementation, and a record of 40 consecutive trading days with turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2]. Economic Confidence - The breakthrough of the 4000-point mark is seen as a strong indicator of market confidence in China's economic future and the results of capital market reforms, potentially attracting more long-term and foreign capital [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics differ from the 2015 bull market, which was driven by leverage and speculative trading. The present market is characterized by rational valuations and structural differentiation, primarily driven by advancements in hard technology [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment phase is nearing its end, with expectations of a transition from valuation-driven to performance-driven market behavior [4][5]. Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations may occur following the 4000-point breakthrough, as some investors may take profits, but the long-term outlook remains positive if the technology sector can sustain growth [7]. - Historical trends indicate that after a bull market adjustment, sectors aligned with upward industrial trends, such as technology and cyclical industries, are likely to outperform [7].

10月28日，A股市场迎来历史性时刻——上证指数盘中突破4000点整数关口，这是自2015年8月19日以 来，沪指时隔十年重回4000点之上。 回顾历史，2015年6月A股经历剧烈调整后，沪指长期徘徊在3000点附近。2024年9月24日，政策组合拳 推动市场启动牛市，上证指数从2800点附近起步，历经一年多时间实现"多级跳"：2025年6月接近3500 点，8月逼近3900点，10月9日突破3900点续创十年新高。此次更是突破4000点，标志着A股市场开启新 一轮行情。 宋清辉向强调，本轮行情与2015年不同。2015年，A股市场的驱动逻辑是"杠杆牛"，主要由场外配资、 融资融券规模的快速膨胀推动，当年市场情绪狂热，估值泡沫化严重。而当前的驱动逻辑主要是"硬科 技驱动"，整体估值更为理性，同时结构性分化明显。 华安证券指出，当前良性调整接近尾声，历史复盘数据显示，成长景气周期行情中，由估值驱动切换至 业绩驱动过程中的调整时间通常较短，而当前良性调整期已进入后半程或尾声。十一月初有望成为验证 行情是否进入新一轮即业绩支撑行情的契机。 中信证券同样认为，当前，活跃趋势性资金的减仓已基本完成，市场的成交和换手也已 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market has reached a historic milestone with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4000-point mark for the first time since August 2015, indicating the start of a new market cycle [1][2] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen significant growth, rising from approximately 2800 points in September 2024 to over 4000 points in October 2025, marking a substantial recovery and growth phase [1] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has increased from about 68 trillion yuan to 106.6 trillion yuan within a year, reflecting a surge of 38.6 trillion yuan, driven primarily by emerging industries such as technology and new energy [1] Trading Activity - A-share trading volume and turnover have remained active, with daily trading volumes previously below 800 billion yuan, now reaching peaks of 3.48 trillion yuan, and maintaining over 2 trillion yuan for 40 consecutive trading days [2] - The market's heightened activity is seen as a sign of strong investor confidence in the Chinese economy and capital market reforms [2] Market Dynamics - The current market rally is characterized by a "hard technology-driven" logic, contrasting with the "leverage bull" market of 2015, suggesting a more rational valuation and structural differentiation [3] - Analysts predict that the current market adjustment phase is nearing its end, with expectations of a transition to performance-driven market dynamics in November [3] Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations may occur following the 4000-point breakthrough, as some investors may take profits, but the long-term outlook hinges on the sustainability of growth in the hard technology sector [4] - Historical trends suggest that after a bull market adjustment, sectors with upward industry trends, particularly technology and cyclical industries, are likely to outperform [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong opening on October 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and approaching the 4000-point mark, reaching a new high for the year, closing up 1.04% [1][9] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.26%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.54%, with over 3700 stocks in the market showing gains [1][2] Trading Volume and Market Capitalization - The trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.59 trillion yuan, with a predicted total trading volume of 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 527.6 billion yuan [2] - The total market capitalization of A-shares surged from approximately 68 trillion yuan a year ago to 106.6 trillion yuan as of October 24, marking an increase of 38.6 trillion yuan [10] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as coal, rare earths, optical modules, and memory chips saw significant gains, while sectors like online gaming and photovoltaic inverters faced declines [5][6] - The CPO concept stocks, including New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang, reached historical highs during the trading session [4][5] Economic Indicators - Recent economic data showed positive trends, with profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 21.6% year-on-year in September, up from 20.4% previously [3] Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market rally is driven by "hard technology" rather than speculative leverage, indicating a more rational valuation environment compared to the 2015 market [11][12] - The breakthrough of the 4000-point mark is seen as a significant milestone, potentially attracting more long-term capital and foreign investment into the market [10][12] Investment Sentiment - The market sentiment has been bolstered by recent developments in China-U.S. trade negotiations and favorable macroeconomic data, leading to increased investor confidence [3][11] - However, there may be short-term volatility as the market adjusts to the psychological barrier of 4000 points, with some investors likely to take profits [14]