2026年房企销售迎来平稳开局。中指研究院发布数据显示，2026年1月份，百强房企（以全口径销售额 排名）实现销售总额1905.2亿元，同比下降18.9%，相比去年全年的降幅基本持平。 1月份，保利发展、中海地产、华润置地位居销售额前三位，分别实现销售额156亿元、144.7亿元和 116.5亿元，头部房企表现较为平稳。此外，滨江集团、建发房产、越秀地产等区域深耕型房企，在一 线及强二线城市保持了相对稳定的去化节奏，成为当前市场的重要支撑力量。 房企1月拿地热度有所减弱 投拓方面，2026年1月，TOP100企业拿地总额579.9亿元，同比下降52.1%。房企开年拿地同比降幅较 高，一方面是上年同期基数较高，2025年1月TOP100企业拿地总额同比增长四成多；另一方面，刚开 年，企业在上年积极补仓的背景下拿地热度有所减弱，这也延续了上年四季度拿地热度走低的态势。 TOP100企业拿地总额579.9亿元，同比下降52.1%。刚开年，在企业上年积极补仓的背景下拿地热度有 所减弱。从新增货值来看，华润置地、石家庄城发投集团位列前二。 销售表现整体符合市场预期 2026年1月，TOP100房企销售总额为1905.2 ...

房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 "三道红线"目前约束意义已不大 核心观点 ⚫ 我们与市场不同的观点： ⚫ 具体事件评述： "三道红线"淡出，这意味着其政策目标基本实现，行业已从"三高"模式转向高 质量发展，监管重点从防范债务危机切换至稳定市场预期。 根据多家媒体报道，部分房地产企业已不再被监管部门要求每月上报"三道红线" 相关数据，仅部分出险房企需向总部所在城市的风险处置专班组定期汇报资产负债 率等核心财务指标。"三道红线"具体为：剔除预收款后的资产负债率大于 70%，净 负债率大于 100%，现金短债比小于 1 倍不得融资，根据房企触线情况实施差异化债 务规模管理。 我们认为对于当前房地产行业来说，"三道红线"实际意义已大幅减弱。对于受困于 资金问题的房企来说，其融资渠道严重受限；对于财务安全度较高的国企开发商来 说，虽然"三道红线"的取消带来一定的加杠杆空间，但鉴于新房市场销售持续收 缩、国资委对于国有房企的杠杆要求，以及其自身的财务纪律，短期内大幅加杠杆 可能性较低。 "三道红线"的逐步淡出是市场调整至一定阶段的必然结果，但在当下时点相关报 道继续强化稳预期信号。 ⚫ 市场：第 5 周房地产板块指数 ...

进入2026年，深圳二手房市场的成交表现引起市场关注。 1月26日，深圳市房地产中介协会发布的数据显示，上周全市二手房(含自助)共计录得1680套，环比增 长1.6%。进入2026年，市场进入稳步回升通道，二手房录得量已连续3周保持上升趋势且单周录得量再 次突破1600套。与此同时，从需求端(委买合同)来看，市场新增需求量小幅上升，结合二手录得量持续 走高，表明当前市场供需两端均呈现回暖态势，后续成交量有望延续稳中有升的走势。 二手房一直被视为市场的"晴雨表"。中指研究院认为，随着住房市场进入存量时代，二手房成交占比逐 步提升，在大中城市，刚需购房者普遍通过购买二手房解决居住问题，而新房市场则转向满足改善性需 求，房企通过"好房子"产品形成差异化供给。根据中指数据，2025年30城二手房成交套数同比基本持 平，二手房占比提升至65%左右，较2024年提升约4个百分点。北京、上海、广州、深圳、成都、杭 州、南京、苏州等核心城市二手房成交套数占比均超六成。 中指研究院认为，由于2026年春节假期相对延后，传统销售淡季窗口相应后移，使得1月至2月上旬市场 表现成为观测一季度乃至全年景气度的关键窗口。短期市场能否实现 ...

智通财经APP获悉，1月19日，中指研究院发布报告，2025年，全国房地产市场整体延续调整态势。国家统计局 数据显示，全年新建商品房销售面积为8.8亿平米，同比下降8.7%，销售额8.4万亿元，同比下降12.6%，反映出 需求修复仍需时间。投资、新开工和竣工面积同比分别下降17.2%、20.4%、18.1%，显示出企业在市场调整阶 段普遍采取审慎策略，投资布局进一步向高能级城市聚焦。 进入2026年，政策层面释放出清晰的"稳预期"信号。1月1日，《求是》杂志刊发《改善和稳定房地产市场预 期》特约评论员文章，具有标志性意义。文中强调"加强预期管理对稳定房地产市场具有特殊重要性"，并提出 要"尽可能缩短调整时间，熨平市场波动"，"政策要一次性给足，不能采取添油战术"。在此定调下，年初已有 多项具体措施落地，包括换房退税政策延长、白名单项目贷款展期及结构性降息等，旨在从需求端与融资端同 步提振市场信心。 值得关注的是，由于2026年春节假期相对延后，传统销售淡季窗口相应后移，使得1月至2月上旬市场表现成为 观测一季度乃至全年景气度的关键窗口。短期市场能否实现"开门红"，将直接检验"稳预期"政策与实际需求之 间的传导 ...

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market may benefit from the expected increase in risk appetite, and the bond market yield will fluctuate at a low level. A - shares may benefit from the increase in risk appetite due to potential policy support and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks. The bond market price has fully factored in the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expectations, and the bond yield may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Gold still has a long - term positive outlook, but short - term volatility may increase [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), US stocks declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by - 0.27%, - 0.47%, and - 0.16% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changing by - 2.46%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.61%, and the FTSE China A50 Index rose 2.63% [2]. - A - shares generally rose. The wind All - A Index rose 2.32%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro - cap stocks changed by 2.13%, 2.00%, 1.60%, 2.22%, 3.58%, and 5.65% respectively. Growth and blue - chip stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both rose [3]. - All 30 CITIC industries rose. Industries with relatively large increases included national defense and military industry, communication, banking, machinery, new energy, and comprehensive, with weekly increases of more than 3.5% [4]. Bond Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the yield of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years decreased, and the yield of those with a maturity of 10 years and above increased, making the yield curve steeper. The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.06% compared to April 30, 2025 [5]. - The capital price decreased, and the bond market leverage level increased. As of May 9, 2025, R007 was 1.5805%, down 25.91 BP from April 30, 2025, and DR007 was 1.5409%, down 25.77 BP. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan in the past week. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 4.97 trillion yuan on April 30, 2025, to 6.32 trillion yuan on May 9, 2025 [6]. - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the price of US treasury bonds fell, and the yield curve shifted upward as a whole. As of May 9, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond rose 4 BP to 4.37% compared to May 2, 2025 [7]. Foreign Exchange Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the US dollar appreciated. The US dollar index rose 0.38%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate rose 0.40% to 7.2402, and the US dollar against the on - shore RMB exchange rate fell 0.24% to 7.2461 [8]. Commodity Market - In the past week (20250505 - 20250511), the spot price of London gold rose 2.30% to $3324.55 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 3.14% to $3326.30 per ounce [9]. Foreign Trade - From January to April, China's cumulative export increased by 6.4% year - on - year, 0.6% higher than that in the first three months. Although the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US decreased from 4.5% in January - March to - 2.5% in January - April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of exports to other countries and regions such as ASEAN, the EU, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea increased. The cumulative year - on - year import decreased by 5.2%, 1.8% higher than that in the first three months. The trade surplus in January - April was $368.76 billion, an increase of $113.808 billion year - on - year [10].