存储板块调整后如何布局？海外英伟达链观点更新 20251123 近期算力板块以英伟达为首的北美链条调整较多，但基本面无需过多担心。英 伟达最新财报显示，其业绩超预期，不管是 Q3 业绩还是 Q4 指引都表现良好。 对于 2026 年的需求，从供给端来看，包括台积电流片、英伟达指引、博通和 Meta 等二线 TPU、ASIC 公司的指引都表明供给没有问题。从估值角度看，目 前龙头公司估值在 1 倍 PEG 以下，有些甚至只有 0.5 倍 PEG，因此泡沫担忧 尚未到来。此外，对于北美云厂商杠杆问题，在美国不衰退的大背景下，这一 风险尚未充分反应，也不会过度反应。因此，我们认为当前时点无需过度担忧 北美供需问题。 涉及 A 股相关投资标的方面，光模块、PCB 和服务器主张等环 节值得关注。例如，中际旭创当前估值不到 15 倍，非常有性价比。年底前公 募机构调仓压力可能压制短期上涨，但这一因素预计在 12 月中旬逐步解除。 因此，我们认为 2026 年这些板块潜在空间更大，具有强比较优势。 存储行业目前面临哪些挑战？未来走势如何？ 存储行业近期跌幅较大，市场主要担忧成本上涨影响下游需求及原厂扩产带来 的价格压力。存 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating, targeting a price of HK$36.50, indicating a potential upside of 46.7% from the current price of HK$24.90 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading platform provider in the smart terminal manufacturing industry, benefiting from the innovation cycle of major clients in smartphones and computers over the next three years. The strategic innovation in ultra-thin automotive laminated glass is expected to drive growth, while previous margin pressures from overseas factories are anticipated to ease [3][4]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company, estimating revenues of RMB 87.41 billion, RMB 110.55 billion, and RMB 133.14 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of RMB 4.79 billion, RMB 6.80 billion, and RMB 8.36 billion during the same period [2][3]. Company Overview - The company started with glass processing and has evolved into a global leader in the smart terminal manufacturing industry, providing comprehensive precision manufacturing solutions. It has expanded its business into various fields, including smartphones, computers, smart vehicles, and humanoid robots [4][10]. - The company has achieved vertical integration across the entire supply chain, from raw material production to assembly, and has diversified into new areas such as smart automotive and robotics [4][10]. Industry Situation - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing a revival driven by new technology innovations and a replacement cycle, particularly in smartphones. Global smartphone shipments are projected to reach 1.24 billion units in 2024, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase [18][19]. - The automotive market is also growing rapidly, with smart vehicle sales expected to rise from 73.2 million units in 2025 to 92.1 million units by 2029, driven by increasing demand for smart features [25][26]. - The humanoid robotics market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the market size expected to increase from USD 2.3 billion in 2025 to USD 12.9 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 54.4% [28][29]. Financial Data - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of RMB 53.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.08%, and a net profit of RMB 2.84 billion, up 19.91% year-on-year. The smartphone and computer segment remains the primary revenue source, accounting for over 80% of total revenue [31][34]. - The automotive and cockpit business also showed steady growth, with revenues of RMB 3.17 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 16.45% year-on-year increase [34].

Core Insights - The AGIX index aims to capture the beta and alphas of the AGI era, which is expected to be a significant technological paradigm shift over the next 20 years, similar to the impact of the internet [2] - The article discusses the importance of AI infrastructure and the bottlenecks in the AI industry, particularly focusing on power supply, data center space, and memory limitations [10][11][12] Market Performance - AGIX has shown a weekly performance of 2.65%, a year-to-date return of 38.71%, and a return of 91.06% since 2024 [5] - The S&P 500, QQQ, and Dow Jones have lower year-to-date returns compared to AGIX, indicating a strong performance in the AGI sector [5] Sector Performance - The semi & hardware sector has a weekly performance of 1.16% with an index weight of 25.57%, while the infrastructure sector performed at 1.88% with a weight of 40.72% [6] - The application sector, however, saw a decline of -0.38% with a weight of 28.65%, indicating challenges in that area [6] AI Infrastructure and Bottlenecks - The focus on memory bottlenecks has intensified as high bandwidth memory (HBM) becomes a critical limitation for model training and inference efficiency [11] - Companies like Sandisk and Seagate are attempting to address these bottlenecks through innovative storage solutions [11] - The collaboration between NVIDIA and Nokia aims to enhance edge AI capabilities and improve communication infrastructure for AI applications [12] AI Industry Developments - Amazon plans to cut approximately 30,000 corporate jobs as it accelerates the deployment of AI technologies, reflecting a strategic organizational adjustment [17] - Microsoft faces legal challenges in Australia regarding its pricing strategies for Microsoft 365 Copilot, highlighting regulatory scrutiny in the AI sector [18] - Both Apple and Microsoft have reached a market capitalization of $4 trillion, showcasing the strong valuation driven by the AI wave [19] AI Education and Innovation - Super Teacher, an education technology startup, is democratizing AI tutoring for elementary school students, emphasizing the role of AI as a tool for teachers [20] - NVIDIA's GTC conference highlighted its leadership in AI infrastructure, with a focus on practical deployment and collaboration with major industry players [21] AMD's Strategic Shift - AMD is advancing its software-defined AI factory strategy, aiming to redefine data center architecture through its ROCm software stack [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has shown initial improvements in operational efficiency, with a focus on deepening its edge computing layout in the TMT and communication sectors [6] - The company reported a revenue of 5.366 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.69%, but a 7.32% increase in continuing operations when excluding the impact of a specific business segment [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 316 million yuan, down 51.50% year-on-year, with a 2.19% decline in continuing operations [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to be 7.716 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 37%, and is expected to decline to 7.530 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 8% decrease [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 564 million yuan in 2023, with a growth of 55%, and is expected to drop to 494 million yuan in 2025, indicating a 26% decline [2] - The company’s current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 43.6, projected to rise to 49.7 in 2025, before decreasing to 28.4 by 2027 [13] Operational Highlights - The company has made strategic partnerships to enhance its edge computing capabilities, including collaborations with HeSai Technology and XREAL to develop advanced AI solutions [6] - The company successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 2.9 billion yuan to invest in robotics and edge AI research and development [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][23]. Core Insights - The company has achieved record quarterly performance, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 273 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 46.64% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6.16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 60 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 101.09% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 20.72% [1][8]. - The company is experiencing robust growth in market share and product offerings, particularly in the AI-enabled edge computing sector, which is driving significant revenue increases [8]. - The report highlights the successful penetration of the Bluetooth speaker SoC market, with increasing collaboration with leading audio brands and a strong demand for low-latency wireless audio products [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 652 million yuan in 2024, 986 million yuan in 2025, 1,324 million yuan in 2026, and 1,745 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 25.3%, 51.3%, 34.3%, and 31.8% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 107 million yuan in 2024, 212 million yuan in 2025, 295 million yuan in 2026, and 397 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 63.8%, 98.8%, 39.2%, and 34.7% respectively [3]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) to increase from 0.61 yuan in 2024 to 2.27 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding decrease in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 97 to 26 over the same period [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically positioned in the AI edge computing market, focusing on low-power, high-performance chip development to meet the growing demand for advanced audio products [8]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to innovation, particularly in developing proprietary protocols to enhance wireless transmission capabilities and reduce latency [8]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 87.58 yuan, based on a projected P/E ratio of 52x for 2026, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [3][8].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [12] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of edge AI, predicting a significant growth year in 2026, with a focus on supply chain opportunities and key players like Luxshare Precision in the edge AI supply chain [1][5][6] - Apple is set to launch AI features in the Chinese market, with the iPhone 17 series performing well, reaching a market cap of $3.89 trillion on October 21 [2][20] - The consumer-grade AR industry is entering a new phase with the launch of Thunderbird's Air 4 series AR glasses, which feature advanced technology and aim to make AR accessible to the general public [3][26] - Meta's AI glasses have seen sales exceed expectations, with a projected shipment of 4-5 million units in 2025, indicating strong market demand [4][34][37] - OpenAI's launch of ChatGPT Atlas is expected to lead to the development of new edge AI devices by the end of 2026 or early 2027, enhancing the consumer electronics ecosystem [5][38][39] - Luxshare Precision is showcasing its leadership in AR technology and AI interconnect solutions, indicating its strong position in the consumer electronics sector [6][40] Summary by Sections Edge AI Developments - Apple is advancing its AI capabilities in China, with plans to release the iPhone Air and M5 chip, enhancing AI processing and graphics performance significantly [2][21] - Thunderbird Innovation has launched the Air 4 series AR glasses, featuring the world's first AR quality chip, Vision 4000, which supports HDR10 and aims to democratize AR technology [3][26] - Meta's Ray-Ban smart glasses have seen a sales increase of over 200% year-on-year, with strong market performance expected to continue [4][34][36] OpenAI and New Technologies - OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas is a new AI browser that redefines web browsing experiences, integrating AI functionalities directly into the browsing process [5][38] - OpenAI is also developing various hardware devices, including a screenless smart speaker, with a target release date in late 2026 or early 2027 [39] Luxshare Precision's Innovations - Luxshare Precision is showcasing multiple AR technology products and advanced optical interconnect solutions, reinforcing its leadership in the consumer electronics industry [6][40]

Group 1 - The overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in sectors such as power equipment, machinery, electronics, food and beverage, light manufacturing, real estate, and retail, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, building materials, pharmaceuticals, textiles, automobiles, public utilities, and environmental protection are on a downward trend [2][23] - The report predicts strong performance in specific sub-industries over the next four weeks, highlighting automotive services, commercial vehicles, automotive parts, rail transit equipment, lighting equipment, household appliance components, chemical pharmaceuticals, non-metallic materials, plastics, consumer electronics, and electronic chemicals [2][23] - The investment themes are categorized into three directions: 1) breakthroughs in technology AI, 2) economic recovery and market liquidity leading to a "stronger gets stronger" market style, and 3) the continued rise of undervalued assets [2][23] Group 2 - In September, exports exceeded expectations with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, driven by strong performance in integrated circuits and shipbuilding, marking the highest growth in six months [3][27] - Imports also saw a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, and a month-on-month increase of 8.5%, the highest September month-on-month growth since 2015 [3][29] - The trade surplus for September was $90.45 billion, lower than market expectations but still above last year's levels, indicating robust external trade performance [3][29] Group 3 - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry reported a total profit of 246.08 billion yuan from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.5% [11] - The prices of hydrogen fluoride and hydrogen peroxide have been rising, with the hydrogen peroxide market showing strong upward momentum due to tight supply and increased demand from downstream industries [11][17] - The report indicates that the chemical industry is facing challenges, including price fluctuations and production safety risks, which could impact profitability [11][17] Group 4 - The company Hualu Hensheng reported a revenue of 15.764 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, with a net profit of 1.569 billion yuan, down 29.5% [10] - The company experienced a recovery in the second quarter, with revenue of 7.992 billion yuan and a net profit of 862 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8% and 21.9% respectively [10] - The production of new projects, such as the BDO-NMP facility in Jingzhou and the diacid project in Dezhou, is expected to contribute significantly to revenue and profit in the second half of the year [10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **consumer electronics** and **semiconductor** sectors, focusing on the impact of tariffs and geopolitical tensions on these industries [1][2][12]. Key Points on Consumer Electronics - The **valuation of the consumer electronics sector** has increased more than the EPS growth, despite weak overall demand in the smartphone market [3][5]. - **Apple's new product performance** is strong, but the overall smartphone market remains weak [3]. - **End-side AI hardware**, such as AI glasses, and companies within the Apple supply chain are highlighted as key areas of focus, with expectations for performance realization in the coming years [1][3][5]. - Short-term tariff disruptions are expected to have limited impact, with the second half of the year projected to perform better than the first half due to the traditional peak season and new Apple products [1][5]. Semiconductor Sector Insights - There is an increased focus on **upstream semiconductor equipment and materials**, particularly in **wafer manufacturing** [1][6]. - The **utilization rates** for wafer manufacturing companies like **SMIC** and **Huahong Semiconductor** are reported to be high, with a positive outlook for the packaging and testing segment [4][9]. - Domestic **NAND** production has a high localization rate, while **DRAM** still has room for improvement, with ongoing expansion plans [7]. - The **semiconductor equipment market** is seeing progress in new process chip development and yield improvement, with companies adjusting order revenues upward, providing a basis for valuation increases [8]. Long-term Outlook - Long-term recommendations include focusing on: 1. Leading companies in the Apple supply chain 2. Emerging products in end-side AI hardware 3. Platform-based leading companies with favorable competitive landscapes [5]. - The **capital expenditure** in the semiconductor sector is expected to continue increasing, alleviating concerns about reaching a peak in capital spending [7]. Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - The **U.S.-China tensions** are noted to have a limited long-term impact on the consumer electronics sector, with tariffs being a primary concern in the short term [2][12]. - The semiconductor industry is characterized as being in a **structural bull market**, with a focus on domestic production and core replacement sectors [12]. Additional Insights - The **silicon wafer market** is experiencing changes due to increased consumption driven by storage and various analog-digital chips, with rising prices for overseas silicon wafers boosting domestic valuations [10]. - The **AI chip market** is optimistic, with domestic AI chips gaining recognition at the 12nm and N+1 nodes, leading to expectations for future advancements [15]. - The **storage chip sector** is expected to benefit from rising prices and increased demand from both end-side and cloud-side applications [17]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to look for **opportunities in core stocks** that have reasonable valuations and high earnings certainty in the upcoming quarters [21].

Group 1 - The report highlights the narrowing space for convertible bond adjustments, with a focus on individual bond adjustment intentions as the market enters a period of increased redemption and maturity [1][24][25] - The overall market valuation of convertible bonds has decreased, with the average conversion value dropping to 100.36 yuan, while the weighted average premium rate has increased to 38.89% [1][26] - The report suggests monitoring convertible bonds with strong fundamentals and relatively low valuations, particularly in technology growth sectors and industries benefiting from cyclical recovery [1][25] Group 2 - The logistics supply chain industry is experiencing significant growth through value realization, with companies extending their business models from logistics to trade and manufacturing [8] - New business segments within supply chain companies are showing high growth rates, with annualized gross profit growth rates of 22% and 21% for specific companies [8] - The report anticipates a rebound in supply chain profits, driven by rising commodity prices and a potential decline in the US dollar index due to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [8] Group 3 - The medical device company, 惠泰医疗, reported a 21.26% year-on-year increase in revenue to 1.214 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit growth of 24.11% [28][29] - The company has focused on its core PFA products, achieving significant milestones in the treatment of atrial fibrillation and expanding its product line [28][29] - The report projects revenue growth for 惠泰医疗 to reach 2.682 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits expected to be 930 million yuan [28][29] Group 4 - 荃信生物 reported a remarkable 359.69% increase in revenue to 206 million yuan in the first half of 2025, although it faced a net loss [35][36] - The company is focusing on the autoimmune disease market, which is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of 363 billion yuan by 2024 [35][36] - 荃信生物 has a diverse pipeline of monoclonal antibodies targeting various autoimmune diseases, with several products in advanced clinical stages [35][36][37]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [12] Core Insights - The report highlights that 2026 is expected to be a significant year for edge AI, driven by policy support and major tech companies leading innovation in AI terminal products [16][18] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI terminal devices, with a focus on new product innovations and the release of various AI applications across different sectors [20][21] Summary by Sections Edge AI - The report notes that Meta has raised its sales expectations for AI glasses due to strong demand, increasing orders to suppliers by 20% [18] - A joint policy document from multiple government departments aims to stimulate digital consumption and innovation in AI terminal products, including smartphones and wearables [20][21] - JD.com has launched an AI ecosystem, introducing three major AI products aimed at enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [23][24] AI Cloud - OpenAI is developing a series of new edge AI devices expected to launch by the end of 2026 or early 2027, including a screenless smart speaker [29] - The report mentions that Alibaba is enhancing its cloud infrastructure with significant investments to support AI development [8][9] - The report highlights the IPO of Moore Threads, which aims to accelerate the commercialization of domestic GPUs for AI applications [7][8] Consumer Electronics - Apple has launched the iPhone 17 series, which features significant upgrades in performance and display technology, with strong pre-sale demand [40][45] - The report indicates that Apple's new products, including AirPods Pro 3 and Apple Watch Series 11, have introduced advanced features and improvements [41][42][44] - The report suggests that companies like Luxshare Precision are leading innovations in AR technology and AI solutions, showcasing multiple new products at industry events [30][36] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in the consumer electronics supply chain, including Luxshare Precision, BYD Electronics, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the growth in AI and digital consumption [10]