转自：新华财经 进入2025年，零售业站上了十字路口。一些企业仍在追逐万店的梦想，一些企业开始关店调整；一些企 业继续沿着消费升级的逻辑打造产品，一些企业则开始追求质价比；一些企业在规模庞大的下沉市场中 获利，另一些企业发现四五线城市并不符合自己的商业模式，于是继续坚守城市市场……更多企业仍在 抉择的十字路口，希望在变化的市场环境中，找到真正适合自己的生存路径。 零售业的纠结并非空穴来风，而是经济发展到现阶段必然经历的过程。中国连锁经营协会会长彭建真就 分享称："全世界都有这样一个规律，大概在人均GDP一万美元之前，市场处于大众消费的阶段，消费 不断升级。但人均GDP进入一万美元之后，消费开始呈现分级的状态。比如有的消费者喜欢优质优价， 喜欢奢侈品，同时也会有大量消费者看重质价比，消费出现明显分层。" 而当下零售业抉择的本质，实际上是要做出选择，企业要如何"定位"，要面对哪一层的消费者，提供哪 些产品与服务，以及如何提升"能力"，如何面向目标客群，更精准、高效地提供产品与服务。而要做好 这一点，企业还需要补齐三堂课。 消费分级下的精细化经营 消费分级的大背景下，如何更好地识别客群并提供他们所需的产品与服务成为 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese fruit industry is transitioning from a focus on quantity to quality, with an increasing variety of high-quality domestic fruits available to consumers [1] - The industry is moving towards precision agriculture and ecological farming practices to enhance fruit quality and sustainability [3][4] - Brand cultivation and market expansion are essential for the future growth of the domestic fruit industry, with a focus on quality and standardized production [5][6] Group 1: Industry Transformation - China's fruit industry is the largest in the world, but it has historically been characterized by a lack of strength despite high production [1] - The shift from traditional farming methods to precision agriculture is driven by consumer demand for higher quality and diverse fruit varieties [3] - The introduction of ecological farming techniques has improved soil health, leading to better fruit quality and stable production [4] Group 2: Brand Development - The domestic fruit industry has developed a mature system covering various stages from breeding to cold chain logistics, allowing for the successful "domestication" of imported fruits [4][5] - The blueberry market in China has seen significant growth, with total production surpassing that of the United States in 2020, and cultivation area increasing by 44.38% by 2024 [5] - Strengthening brand recognition and quality assurance is crucial for the industry to navigate challenges posed by small-scale farmers following market trends [5][6] Group 3: International Market Expansion - The recognition of Chinese fruits in international markets has improved, with exports reaching $8.54 billion in 2024, a 20.9% increase year-on-year [8] - The "Yishu Jia" cherry brand successfully entered high-end markets in Hong Kong and Singapore, demonstrating the potential for premium domestic fruit brands [6][8] - The industry is leveraging trade events and regional advantages to expand its international footprint, with the number of export destinations increasing significantly [8]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major players in the marinated food industry, known as the "three giants," has declined significantly, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and market dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The three major companies in the marinated food sector reported collective revenue declines, with Juewei Food's revenue at 6.257 billion yuan, down 13.84% year-on-year, marking its first revenue drop since its listing in 2017 [2][3]. - Juewei Food's net profit attributable to shareholders was 227 million yuan, a decrease of 34.04% compared to the previous year [2][3]. - Other companies, Huangshanghuang and Zhouheiya, also experienced revenue declines of 9.44% and 10.66%, with net profits dropping by 42.86% and 15.03%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - The domestic consumption environment has changed, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive, leading them to seek cheaper alternatives or higher value products [5][7]. - The rise of new retail channels such as bulk snacks, instant delivery, and community group buying has diverted customers from traditional marinated food stores [5][7]. - Consumers are increasingly demanding healthier food options, focusing on nutrition and safety, which conflicts with the high salt, fat, and cholesterol content typically found in marinated foods [5][7]. Group 3: Market Competition and Strategy - The marinated food industry is facing intensified competition as more companies enter the market, leading to a redistribution of market share [7][8]. - Companies are shifting from simple expansion to refined management strategies, enhancing store quality, optimizing product offerings, and strengthening brand development to improve competitiveness [8]. - Long-term revitalization of the marinated food market will require diversification and verticalization, including expanding product lines and targeting specific consumer segments with customized products [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is positioned as a value bank with a focus on enhancing customer value, which is expected to reduce medium to long-term uncertainties. The combination of high dividends and low valuation is anticipated to drive value recovery [1][5] - The company is implementing refined operations to enhance profitability from its existing customer base, which includes 110 million retail customers and 1.5 million corporate clients. This is expected to narrow the profitability gap with leading banks [2] - There is an improvement in asset quality, with a downward trend in non-performing loans (NPLs) expected to continue, indicating a positive shift in risk management [3] - The dividend payout ratio is projected to increase, reinforcing the dividend logic and driving valuation recovery. The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is expected to be 30.2%, up from 29.6% in 2023, with a corresponding dividend yield of 4.92% [4] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts a slight increase in net profit for 2025-2027, with expected growth rates of 0.42%, 4.45%, and 5.46% respectively. The book value per share (BPS) is projected to be 39.35, 41.98, and 44.77 yuan for the same years [5] - The company's revenue is expected to show fluctuations, with a projected revenue of 212.23 billion yuan for 2024, followed by a decrease to 204.67 billion yuan in 2025, and then a recovery in subsequent years [6][11]