Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) has been appreciating against the US Dollar (USD) following the Spring Festival holiday, reaching new highs not seen since April 2023 [1][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - On February 25, the CNY/USD spot exchange rate broke through the 6.88 and 6.87 levels, peaking at 6.8622, which is an appreciation of over 200 points from the previous trading day [1]. - The offshore CNY also surpassed the 6.87 mark, reaching a high of 6.86179, reflecting an appreciation of over 0.25% from the previous day [2]. - The central parity rate for CNY against USD on February 25 was reported at 6.9321, an increase of 93 basis points [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Appreciation - The rapid appreciation of the CNY post-holiday is attributed to the stabilization of China-US trade relations since November 2025, improving the overall external environment for China [4]. - Recent legal investigations into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have put pressure on the USD, contributing to its weakness and allowing non-USD currencies, including the CNY, to appreciate [4]. - High demand for currency settlement from previous export growth has accelerated, with bank customer settlement surpluses reaching $99.93 billion and $88.76 billion in December 2025 and January 2026, respectively, marking historical highs [4].

2026年以来，商品投资热度持续升温，虽然经历了高位震荡，但在避险情绪、基本面改善等因素影响 下，黄金或仍是2026年的投资优选方向。 近期，海内外市场对美伊局势的担忧急剧升温，贵金属板块再度成为全球避险资金的重要选择，在春节 期间表现强势。年后沪金跟上步伐，金ETF（518680）今日早盘大幅跳开，盘间一度涨超3.6%，截至发 稿的最新涨幅为3.62%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 研究机构认为，本轮贵金属行情，由地缘局势发酵、美国经济滞胀格局初显、美元承压三条主线共同驱 动。往后看，多重催化因素共振，或继续推动黄金价格处于上升趋势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside a surge in global risk aversion, has led to a significant increase in gold prices, reaching new historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a monthly increase exceeding $1000, driven by expectations of two potential interest rate cuts this year due to a weak U.S. labor market and moderate inflation [2][3]. - The U.S. dollar is under pressure, as indicated by President Trump's comments expressing a lack of concern over dollar depreciation, which has led to a passive reduction in dollar-denominated assets [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Key support levels for gold are identified at $5238 and $5200, while resistance is noted at $5300 and $5400, with a potential upward movement towards $5500 if the price breaks through these levels [1][3]. - Technical indicators such as the 5-day moving average and MACD show bullish signals, suggesting that gold may continue to rise in the short term [3].

Core Viewpoint - The silver futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with a notable decrease in warehouse receipts and an increase in silver prices, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and domestic political risks in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Market Data - Total silver futures in Shanghai reached 544,244 kilograms, with a decrease of 29,566 kilograms from the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures opened at 27,300 yuan per kilogram, peaked at 30,020 yuan, and closed at 28,300 yuan, marking a 7.25% increase [1] Group 2: Warehouse Data - In Shanghai, the total warehouse receipts showed a net decrease of 30,437 kilograms, with specific warehouses like 中工美供应链 experiencing a significant drop of 28,240 kilograms [2] - The total warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 871 kilograms, with 深圳威豹 contributing to this rise [2] Group 3: Fundamental News - Recent threats from the Trump administration to impose tariffs on Canada and South Korea have increased global trade policy uncertainty, leading to a flow of safe-haven investments into precious metals [2] - Expectations of coordinated efforts by Japan and the U.S. to stabilize the yen have put pressure on the dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of silver priced in dollars [2] - Domestic political risks in the U.S., including potential government shutdowns and unconventional decision-making by Trump, are undermining confidence in dollar assets, prompting investors to seek traditional safe-haven assets like silver [2] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting [2]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices have surged to over $65 per ounce, marking a historic high and becoming one of the strongest rebounds in commodities for 2025, driven by ongoing market dynamics [1] - The global silver market has experienced a structural shortage for five consecutive years, with limited mining output and increasing demand from renewable energy and electronics sectors [1] - Expectations of loose global monetary policy and declining real yields have reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, attracting institutional investors seeking diversification and inflation hedges [1] Market Trends - Silver has reached its long-term target's minimum threshold, with potential for further increases, ideally targeting $75 to $80, contingent on year-end market performance [3] - A controlled pullback to the $43 to $47 range could provide a technical structure for a subsequent rebound [3] - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with November non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, slightly above expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [3][4] Economic Indicators - The release of U.S. CPI and PCE data will significantly influence Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, with a weaker dollar serving as a key driver for gold prices [4] - The November employment report has been a major factor in gold market volatility, with non-farm jobs increasing by 64,000, rebounding from a significant decline in October due to government shutdown impacts [4] Technical Analysis - Current silver market trends indicate a price uptrend, with support around $64.70 and a bullish outlook based on MACD indicators [8] - Suggested trading strategies include positioning for long trades near support levels and short trades near resistance levels, emphasizing cautious trading practices [8]

Group 1 - On November 27, platinum and palladium futures were listed for trading on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, with platinum main contract PT2606 rising by 6.25% to 430.30 CNY per gram and palladium main contract PD2606 increasing by 1.53% to 370.60 CNY per gram [2] - As of November 28, the total open interest for platinum futures was 8,926 contracts, with PT2606 accounting for 8,048 contracts, PT2608 for 643 contracts, and PT2610 for 235 contracts. For palladium futures, total open interest was 2,697 contracts, with PD2606 at 2,550 contracts, PD2608 at 94 contracts, and PD2610 at 53 contracts [2] - The cumulative trading volume for platinum futures over November 27 and 28 was 91,311 contracts, with PT2606 contributing 86,293 contracts, PT2608 4,118 contracts, and PT2610 900 contracts. Palladium futures had a cumulative trading volume of 45,094 contracts, with PD2606 at 43,091 contracts, PD2608 at 1,715 contracts, and PD2610 at 288 contracts [2] Group 2 - On November 28, platinum and palladium options were also launched, with platinum options showing a cautious trading day, having an open interest of 823 contracts and a trading volume of 1,358 contracts, amounting to a transaction value of 34.55 million CNY. The implied volatility for platinum options was 30% [3] - Palladium options had an open interest of 232 contracts and a trading volume of 334 contracts, with a transaction value of 771.22 thousand CNY and an implied volatility of 34% [3] - The average spot price for platinum on November 28 was approximately 414.0 CNY per gram, while palladium's average spot price was around 362.5 CNY per gram [3] Group 3 - The outlook for platinum and palladium futures prices is expected to follow a strong trend in the gold and silver markets, supported by increasing industrial demand for silver and a supply gap that may push silver prices above 13,000 CNY per kilogram [3] - Market attention is focused on the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair, with reports indicating that Kevin Hassett is a leading candidate. If appointed, he may favor aggressive interest rate cuts, potentially putting pressure on the US dollar [4] - The combination of strong expectations for Fed rate cuts, pressure on the dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and the potential for rising silver prices are expected to support the overall performance of platinum and palladium as precious metal assets [4]

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices have risen for seven consecutive days, potentially setting a record for the longest streak in over a year, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The benchmark aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.6% to $2,705 per ton during the Asian trading session, reaching the highest level since March [1] - The anticipation of the Federal Reserve's policy decision has led to increased expectations for monetary easing, which has put pressure on the US dollar and boosted industrial metal prices [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - A surge in aluminum inventory withdrawal requests has raised supply concerns, which continues to support aluminum prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices have risen for seven consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, potentially marking the longest streak in over a year, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and increased supply concerns [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Aluminum prices increased by 0.6% to $2,705 per ton during the Asian trading session, reaching the highest level since March [1]. - The rise in aluminum prices is attributed to heightened expectations of monetary easing, which has put pressure on the US dollar and boosted industrial metal prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There has been a surge in aluminum inventory withdrawal requests, raising concerns about supply, which continues to support aluminum prices [1].