9月23日，COMEX黄金期货价格首次突破3800美元关口，盘中最高触及3824.6美元/盎司，再次刷新历 史新高。 金价"暴走"不停歇。9月23日，COMEX黄金期货价格首次突破3800美元关口，盘中最高触及3824.6美 元/盎司，再次刷新历史新高。 随着价格中枢不断抬高，国际金价也再次进入全新交易区间。9月以来，国际金价上涨按下加速键，截 至目前已累计上涨超8.5%，年内涨幅扩大到38%，远超全球主要股指与债券收益。外资机构纷纷唱多金 价，并进一步调高目标价预期，最高看涨至5000美元。 "中长期看，黄金上涨周期仍未结束，"夏莹莹预计，美元货币体系进入下坡路阶段，世界多极化发展、 逆全球化趋势、美债偿债能力不足等问题，将进一步推动全球央行增配黄金、减配美元。四季度，央行 购金仍是金价的托底，投资需求动力仍存，年内目标位有望进一步上抬至4000整数关口。 还能"上车"吗？ 从3500美元到3800美元，黄金只用了不到半年。面对不断上移的价格中枢，投资者在纠结"贵不贵""买 不买"。 "分批配置、重视波动风险，"面对"暴走"的黄金，业内人士建议，短期金价涨速过快，若宏观数据超预 期或地缘缓和，不排除技术性回 ...

金价"暴走"不停歇。9月23日，COMEX黄金期货价格首次突破3800美元关口，盘中最高触及3824.6美 元/盎司，再次刷新历史高点。 随着价格中枢不断抬高，国际金价也再次进入全新交易区间。9月以来，国际金价上涨按下加速键，截 至目前已累计上涨超8.5%，年内涨幅扩大到38%，远超全球主要股指与债券收益。外资机构纷纷唱多金 价，并进一步调高目标价预期，最高看涨至5000美元。 站在当前时点，投资者还能"上车"吗？如何"上车"？ 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对第一财经称，近期金价继续强势走高，主要受美联储降息 靴子落地，市场对美国经济的滞胀风险以及美联储独立性担忧等因素影响。在金价波动加剧背景下，短 期节奏或较难把握。接下来，国内市场即将迎来长假，投资者仍需警惕假期期间美非农数据影响下的价 格波动风险。 价格中枢继续上移 "分批配置、重视波动风险。"面对"暴走"的黄金，业内人士建议，短期金价涨速过快，若宏观数据超预 期或地缘缓和，不排除技术性回调。普通投资者应立足于长期配置价值，而非盲目博弈短线收益。 截至目前，各类黄金资产收益也有所分化。COMEX黄金期货价格年内累计涨幅38.3%；上期所沪金期 ...

金价"暴走"不停歇。9月23日，COMEX黄金期货价格首次突破3800美元关口，盘中最高触及3824.6美 元/盎司，再次刷新历史新高。 随着价格中枢不断抬高，国际金价也再次进入全新交易区间。9月以 来，国际金价上涨按下加速键，截至目前已累计上涨超8.5%，年内涨幅扩大到38%，远超全球主要股指 与债券收益。外资机构纷纷唱多金价，并进一步调高目标价预期，最高看涨至5000美元。 站在当前时 点，投资者还能"上车"吗？如何"上车"？ 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹称，近期金价继 续强势走高，主要受美联储降息靴子落地，市场对美国经济的滞胀风险以及美联储独立性担忧等因素影 响。在金价波动加剧背景下，短期节奏或较难把握。接下来，国内市场即将迎来长假，投资者仍需警惕 假期期间美非农数据影响下的价格波动风险。（第一财经） ...

9月23日，COMEX黄金期货价格首次突破3800美元关口，盘中最高触及3824.6美元/盎司，再次刷新历 史新高。 金价"暴走"不停歇。9月23日，COMEX黄金期货价格首次突破3800美元关口，盘中最高触及3824.6美 元/盎司，再次刷新历史新高。 随着价格中枢不断抬高，国际金价也再次进入全新交易区间。9月以来，国际金价上涨按下加速键，截 至目前已累计上涨超8.5%，年内涨幅扩大到38%，远超全球主要股指与债券收益。外资机构纷纷唱多金 价，并进一步调高目标价预期，最高看涨至5000美元。 站在当前时点，投资者还能"上车"吗？如何"上车"？ 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对第一财经称，近期金价继续强势走高，主要受美联储降息 靴子落地，市场对美国经济的滞胀风险以及美联储独立性担忧等因素影响。在金价波动加剧背景下，短 期节奏或较难把握。接下来，国内市场即将迎来长假，投资者仍需警惕假期期间美非农数据影响下的价 格波动风险。 截至目前各类黄金资产收益也有所分化。COMEX黄金期货价格年内累计涨幅38.3%；上期所沪金期货 价格年内累计涨幅36.7%。 价格中枢继续上移 从3500美元到3800美元，黄金只 ...

Core Viewpoint - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling by 1.77% to $41.32 per ounce, amid increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices was attributed to the upcoming release of U.S. non-farm payroll data on September 5, which is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decision on potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Current gold prices are nearing double the local low points of 2022, driven by a new period of global geopolitical turmoil and a weakening of the dollar's safe-haven appeal [3]. - Market sentiment suggests a growing concern over stagflation risks in the U.S. economy, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve may initiate interest rate cuts [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios between technology innovation and gold assets, where the former aligns with optimistic market conditions and the latter serves as a hedge against pessimism and risk [3].

Economic Factors - As of April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months as of May[4] - Consumer inflation expectations rose to 6.6%, the highest since 1981, according to a May survey[4] Market Impact - The US stock market lost over $6 trillion in market value within two trading days following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2[29] - The dollar index fell by 8.3% year-to-date as of May 31, indicating pressure on the dollar's dominance[33] - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged from 4.01% to 4.48% within five trading days, reflecting market volatility[29] Political Dynamics - The Republican Party holds a narrow majority in Congress, with 219 seats in the House and 53 in the Senate as of May 31[8] - Trump's tariff policies face legal challenges, but he may utilize other legal provisions to impose tariffs quickly[34] - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 could pressure Trump to deliver on tariff promises to maintain voter support[36] International Relations - The US has not reached tariff agreements with major economies like the EU and Japan, complicating trade negotiations[38] - Other economies are adopting a cautious approach in negotiations with the US, influenced by China's strong countermeasures[38] - The potential for a "tech war" and "financial war" against China is increasing, with measures that could restrict Chinese access to technology and financial systems[46]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for May is expected to show a further cooling in the labor market, with predictions of new job additions dropping from 177,000 in April to around 130,000 [1][2][4] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs is becoming evident, particularly in the leisure, hospitality, trade, and transportation sectors, which are expected to see significant job declines [2][4] - The ADP employment report for May showed only a 37,000 increase in jobs, the lowest since March 2023, indicating a potential underperformance in the non-farm payroll data [3][4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month [1][2] - Economic indicators suggest a mixed outlook, with some data showing resilience in the labor market, such as a slight increase in job openings and a decrease in layoffs [3][4] - The ISM services PMI dropped to 49.9, indicating a contraction in service sector activity, which could further complicate the economic outlook and influence Federal Reserve policy [4][5] Group 3 - Market reactions to the non-farm payroll data are expected to be significant, with potential impacts on the S&P 500 index depending on the job numbers reported [7][8] - If job additions fall below 50,000, the S&P 500 could see a decline of up to 1.5%, while numbers meeting or exceeding expectations could stabilize or even boost market sentiment [8]

Group 1: Overview of the Annual Shareholder Meeting - The annual shareholder meeting of Berkshire Hathaway will take place on May 3, featuring Warren Buffett, Greg Abel, and Ajit Jain, marking Buffett's 60th anniversary at the helm of the company [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The IMF has downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.8%, the largest decline among developed economies, with Q1 GDP contracting by 0.3% [2] - Concerns over inflation and the impact of tariff policies on economic growth are prevalent, with expectations that tariffs may slow GDP growth further [2] Group 3: Tariff Policy Impact - Berkshire's diverse portfolio is sensitive to tariff changes, and Buffett has criticized tariff increases as "acts of war," suggesting they could lead to inflation and harm consumers [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs poses challenges for businesses and investors, raising questions about Buffett's investment strategies in this environment [3] Group 4: Apple Stock Reduction - Shareholders are curious about Buffett's significant reduction of Apple stock holdings, which has remained at 300 million shares since last September [4] - Buffett previously indicated that the sales were motivated by tax considerations, hinting at potential future tax increases due to government deficits [4] Group 5: Record Cash Reserves - As of the end of 2024, Berkshire's cash reserves reached a record high of $334.2 billion [5] Group 6: Investment Strategy - Despite high cash reserves, Buffett emphasizes a preference for investing in quality assets rather than holding cash equivalents, raising questions about future asset allocation [6] Group 7: Japanese Investments and U.S. Stock Reductions - In 2024, Berkshire significantly reduced its holdings in U.S. stocks like Apple and U.S. Bank while increasing investments in Japanese trading companies, with stakes nearing 10% and a total market value of $23.5 billion [7] - The shift in investment strategy raises questions about the long-term outlook for U.S. tech stocks and potential further investments in Japan [7] Group 8: Succession Planning - Buffett has indicated that Greg Abel may soon take over the annual shareholder letter, and he reassures shareholders about Abel's alignment with Berkshire's principles [8] - Buffett expresses confidence in Abel's ability to act on significant investment opportunities, emphasizing the company's long-term management strategy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market turmoil triggered by the new tariff policies announced by the Trump administration, leading to a historic sell-off in the U.S. stock market and heightened fears of a potential global economic recession [2][4][15]. Market Reaction - U.S. stock indices experienced severe declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 3.5%, S&P 500 nearly 4%, and Nasdaq plummeting close to 5%, while the Russell 2000 index fell 4.5%, entering a bear market [4][9]. - The total market value of the "Tech Seven" companies in the U.S. evaporated by $840 billion (approximately 61,000 million RMB) [2][5]. - The VIX fear index surged over 28%, indicating heightened market anxiety [4]. Sector Performance - Technology and semiconductor stocks faced significant losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 5.64% to its lowest level since January 2024. Major companies like Apple, Meta, and Amazon saw declines of nearly 9%, over 7%, and over 6%, respectively [4][5]. - Chinese concept stocks also experienced a collective downturn, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling over 2% [5]. Economic Outlook - Analysts express growing concerns about a potential recession in the U.S., with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of a recession from 20% to 35% following the tariff announcements [15][16]. - The U.S. Treasury yield fell from 4.2% to 4.05%, reflecting increased recession fears as stock and bond yields began to move in tandem [15]. Central Bank Implications - The new tariffs are expected to complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making, as they may lead to increased inflation while simultaneously raising recession concerns [22][23]. - Morgan Stanley has revised its expectations for interest rate cuts, delaying the next anticipated cut to March 2026 due to inflation risks associated with the tariffs [24][25]. Global Market Impact - European markets also faced significant declines, with major indices like the DAX and CAC 40 dropping over 3% [9][10]. - Asian markets followed suit, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index falling 2.77% and Vietnam's index plummeting 6.68% [10].