丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 地缘冲突后转债市场如何演进？ ——可转债周报 20260228 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 复盘过去 5 年内 2 次烈度较高地缘冲突，转债短中期表现或偏弱，当前局势下建议关注石油石 化等顺周期板块；叠加股指期货基差收敛的指引，转债或面临短期回调风险。当周 A 股走强， 中小盘及顺周期制造板块占优，成交额略有扩张。转债市场震荡走弱，中盘转债偏强，成交有 所收敛；估值整体压缩，高平价及高市价尤为显著；隐波回落仍处高位，市价中位数略抬。结 构上，钢铁有色等周期板块相对较好，涨幅居前标的部分呈负溢价。一级发行平稳；条款端下 修意愿较弱而不强赎概率提升，建议关注新券表现及条款博弈扰动。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 朱承志 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 地缘冲突后转债市场如何演进？ 2] ——可转 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 近期小微盘成交热度有所回升——W136 市场 观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周是 2026 年春节假期后第一个交易周，A 股市场整体表现向好，周期和科技成长风格齐涨。 伴随市场成交活跃整体回暖，近期小微盘成交热度有所回升；行业层面，油气石化、金属、非 金属材料等成交活跃度居前。小微盘表现向好下，量化基金重仓周度表现居前；北向重仓系列 中，当周沪股通重仓指数领涨。行业板块层面，原材料、能源板块周度领涨。风格内部，创业 板成长周度领涨，中小盘表现较佳。主题热点中，中部崛起及专精特新系列指数周度表现较佳。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 近期小微盘成交热度有所回升 2] ——W136 市场 观察 [Table_Summary2] 度量市场情绪：近期小微盘成交热度有所回升 机构赚钱效应：量化基金重仓周度表现居前 行业板块：原材料 ...

- The report reviews the elasticity of various industry indices since the beginning of the current bull market, highlighting that sectors like telecommunications and metal materials have not yet surpassed their previous highs from late January and early February, while indices like Wind All A and Wind All A Equal Weight have reached new highs by the end of February[7] - The report provides a detailed table showing the maximum range increase of primary industry indices from February 5, 2024, to February 27, 2026, with telecommunications business and metal materials & mining leading the gains with 218% and 217% respectively[8] - The report discusses the performance of strong stocks in February, noting that due to fewer trading days and the impact of the Spring Festival, the overall height of strong stocks was not high, and the hotspots were scattered, with rare metals entering a stage of accelerated shrinkage[11]

Group 1 - The overall fund position decreased marginally in Q4 2025, with a significant increase in the allocation to the CSI 300 index [6][14][23] - The allocation to the ChiNext board increased by 1.35 percentage points to 20.49%, while the allocation to the main board decreased by 1.17 percentage points to 65.64% [14][21] - The allocation to cyclical sectors increased, while technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors saw a decrease in allocation [7][27] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, public funds increased their allocation to cyclical sectors and reduced their allocation to technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors [7][24] - The allocation to materials and mining sectors increased by 3.11 percentage points to 13.51%, while the allocation to information technology and hardware decreased by 2.45 percentage points to 26.23% [27][32] - The telecommunications sector saw an increase in allocation, while the electronics, healthcare, and media sectors experienced a significant decline [7][32] Group 3 - The allocation to high-dividend sectors increased, with the high-dividend industry holding rising by 1.18 percentage points to 5.88% [7] - The allocation to export-related sectors showed mixed results, with an increase in home appliances by 0.18 percentage points to 2.73% and a decrease in semiconductors by 0.39 percentage points to 12.52% [7] - The allocation to core assets decreased, particularly in the power and new energy equipment and food and beverage sectors [7][24] Group 4 - The concentration of holdings among the top five stocks increased to 15.61%, up by 2 percentage points from Q3 2025 [23] - The allocation to the telecommunications sector was notably increased, while the allocation to AI applications and quantum technology sectors was reduced [7][32]

- The report focuses on the analysis of the industries where Northbound funds have increased their holdings, particularly highlighting sectors such as power and new energy equipment, electronics, and metal materials and mining[1][5][13] - Northbound funds' total holdings in A-shares amounted to approximately 2.59 trillion yuan as of December 31, 2025, representing an increase of about 46 billion yuan compared to September 30, 2025[1][5][13] - Relative to the CSI 300 Index, Northbound funds were significantly overweight in the power and new energy equipment sector, with an allocation ratio of approximately 18.0%, compared to 8.6% in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in an overweight of about 9.5%[5][15] - The top five primary industries with the highest net inflows of Northbound funds in Q4 2025 were metal materials and mining, electronics, power and new energy equipment, telecommunications, and insurance[6][20] - The top five secondary industries with the highest net inflows of Northbound funds in Q4 2025 were new energy vehicle equipment, basic non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, precious metals, and components and devices[6][25]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a significant recovery with all major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by over 3% [2][4] - The telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and insurance sectors led the gains, with the telecommunications sector rising by 5% [7][4] - The total market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan, with 3,623 stocks rising across the market [2][7] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.40%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.39% [2][7] - Other indices such as the CSI 300 and the STAR 50 also saw increases of 1.83% and 2.47% respectively [2][7] - The market's strong performance was driven by a recovery in market sentiment and a surge in financial stocks [7] Sector Analysis - Key sectors that performed well included telecommunications (+5.0%), metal materials and mining (+2.7%), electronics (+2.7%), and insurance (+2.2%) [7][4] - Concepts such as CPO (+6.59%), lithium mining (+6.39%), and optical communication (+5.03%) also showed strong gains [7] - Conversely, sectors like defense and military, agricultural products, and coal experienced declines [7] Market Drivers - The market's upward movement was attributed to expectations of continued overseas liquidity easing and a reduction in Japan's interest rate hike expectations [7] - The launch of a second domestic GPU stock on the STAR Market also contributed positively to market sentiment [7] - The insurance sector's performance was bolstered by the "opening red" strategy, leading to increased premium income for leading insurance companies [7] Future Outlook - A slow bull market is anticipated, with Chinese assets likely to undergo further revaluation [7] - The transition from traditional real estate-driven economic demand to new productive forces is expected to gradually uplift economic impacts [7] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors creating new demand through technological advancements, such as AI and robotics, and on scarce resources benefiting from geopolitical dynamics [7]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a broad decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3850 points, while market volume saw a slight increase [2][5] - The performance of various sectors showed that home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking sectors performed relatively well, while metal materials and mining, power and new energy equipment, and electronics sectors led the decline [2][5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.41%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.02%, the SSE 50 Index declined by 1.74%, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.44%, the STAR 50 Index fell by 3.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index dropped by 3.72%, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.98 trillion yuan [2][8] Sector Analysis - The leading sectors included home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking, while the lagging sectors were metal materials and mining (-5.11%), power and new energy equipment (-4.78%), and electronics (-4.66%) [8] - Concept stocks such as China Shipbuilding System (+3.51%), aquatic products (+0.65%), Xiaohongshu platform (+0.47%), and Pinduoduo partners (+0.42%) showed gains, while lithium mining and related concepts faced declines [8] Market Drivers - Key market drivers included the unexpected rise in U.S. unemployment rates despite job growth, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8] - Concerns about high asset prices and AI bubble risks contributed to a decline in U.S. stocks, which in turn affected market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [8] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - The report suggests a short-term market correction may occur due to rapid price increases, but the long-term outlook remains positive with expectations of a "slow bull" market trend [14] - In the medium term, the market's strength may depend on macroeconomic policies and technological advancements, particularly in AI and robotics, which are seen as key areas for creating new demand [15] - Long-term fundamentals, including stabilization in the real estate market and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, are expected to support continued growth in the A-share market [15]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 4000 points, driven by a surge in the new energy industry chain, particularly in power and new energy equipment, metal materials and mining, and comprehensive finance and insurance sectors [2][4][7] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.93%. The total market turnover reached 2.29 trillion yuan, with 2664 stocks rising [2][7][4] Industry Performance - On October 29, 2025, the leading sectors included: - Power and new energy equipment (+4.65%) - Metal materials and mining (+3.75%) - Comprehensive finance (+2.23%) and insurance (+1.65%) - Conversely, the banking, food and beverage, textile and apparel, and testing services sectors lagged [7][4] Conceptual Trends - Key concepts leading the market included: - Photovoltaic inverters (+5.54%) - Industrial metals (+5.28%) - Anti-involution (+4.97%) - Rare metals (+4.88%) - The banking sector and concepts related to state-owned banks and minimum market capitalization faced declines [7][4] Market Drivers - The market's upward movement was attributed to: - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing increased new energy supply - Strong quarterly reports from leading energy storage companies - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle benefiting lithium mining leaders, leading to a rally in the non-ferrous metals sector [7][4] Future Outlook - A slow bull market is anticipated, with Chinese assets likely to continue revaluation. The report suggests that the economic demand driven by traditional real estate is declining, while new productive forces are gradually gaining traction [7][4] Investment Strategy - Recommended investment directions include: 1. High-quality supply creating new demand in emerging tech industries like AI and robotics 2. Scarce supply deserving valuation premiums, particularly in metals driven by energy transition and geopolitical factors 3. Valuation recovery from excess capacity clearance in industries like photovoltaics and chemicals 4. Focus on insurance and brokerage sectors, as low-interest rates encourage residents to allocate more to equity assets, enhancing market activity [7][4]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4000-point mark and a total trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2][10][7] - Key sectors leading the market include telecommunications, electronics, metal materials, mining, and agricultural products, with notable gains in the storage, cross-strait integration, rare earths, and consumer electronics outsourcing concepts [10][10][10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.98%. The total market turnover reached 2.36 trillion yuan, with 3360 stocks rising [2][10][10] - Specific sector performance on October 27, 2025, showed telecommunications (+3.28%), electronics (+2.95%), metal materials and mining (+2.45%), and agricultural products (+1.65%) leading the gains, while sectors like media, food and beverage, real estate, and banking saw declines [10][10][10] Market Drivers - The increase in trading volume to over 2 trillion yuan was driven by global storage giants announcing price hikes, boosting technology hardware stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector [10][10] - Legislative actions, such as the establishment of October 25 as Taiwan Recovery Day, have led to increased activity in the cross-strait integration sector, while the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's draft on steel industry capacity replacement has positively impacted steel stocks [10][10] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, particularly favoring technology as a key investment theme. It suggests that macroeconomic factors will support a bullish trend similar to past bull markets in 1999, 2014, and 2019 [10][10] - Investment focus areas include technology sectors such as AI, robotics, military industry, and new consumption, as well as scarce resources like metals and sectors with improving supply dynamics such as steel, chemicals, transportation, and pig farming [10][10]

Core Insights - The A-share market opened high and maintained a high-level fluctuation, with a slight increase in trading volume. The communication sector led the gains, while technology sectors such as batteries, robotics, and circuit boards experienced a general rebound [6][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.98%, the ChiNext Index surged by 1.98%, the SSE 50 Index gained 0.24%, the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.53%, the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.35%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.75%. The total market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan, with 4,064 stocks rising [10][10]. Sector Performance - On October 20, 2025, within the primary sectors of A-shares, the telecommunications sector led with a gain of 3.15%, followed by coal (+2.96%), power and new energy equipment (+1.53%), and transportation (+1.40%). Conversely, sectors such as metal materials and mining (-0.99%), agricultural products (-0.87%), and banking (-0.13%) saw declines. Notably, concepts like cultivated diamonds (+13.43%), superhard materials (+9.59%), optical modules (+5.07%), and lithium battery electrolytes (+4.75%) led the gains, while gold jewelry, rare earths, nickel ore, and feed concepts declined [10][10]. Market Drivers - The market's upward movement was attributed to a temporary alleviation of overseas uncertainties, with a rebound in hard technology sectors. Notable gains were seen in computing hardware stocks such as optical modules and optical communications. A leading humanoid robot company secured a significant order exceeding 100 million yuan, boosting the robotics sector. Additionally, coal entered its seasonal peak, attracting capital inflows into defensive sectors like coal and natural gas. The emergence of the world's largest cultivated diamond in Henan also spurred a surge in related stocks [10][10]. Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, particularly for October, anticipating favorable policies following the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session. The report supports the views outlined in previous strategies, emphasizing that the key macroeconomic theme for 2025 is "the liquidity of monetary policy." It expects a gradual recovery in the fundamentals, predicting a bullish market trend, drawing parallels with bull markets in 1999, 2014, and 2019 [10][10]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the technology sector and value-oriented sectors that are gradually recovering. Specific areas of interest include: 1. Technology growth sectors, particularly "double innovation" and the Hang Seng Technology Index, with attention to lithium batteries, military industry, and Hong Kong internet stocks. 2. Value sectors, particularly those with consecutive increases in revenue growth and gross margins over the past two quarters, including fiberglass, cement, paper, fine chemicals, oil services, and medical services. 3. In the medium to long term, attention should be given to the non-bank sector within a slow bull market context [10][10].