追溯寒武纪崛起，背后离不开一对江西兄弟陈云霁和陈天石。两兄弟一前一后加入中国科 学院计算所，投身AI芯片的研发，最终为创立寒武纪埋下伏笔。 当然，也离不开一众风投力量的支持。在寒武纪之前，国内创投圈普遍认为投资半导体周 期太长，很难赚到钱。早年面对寒武纪，VC圈也有很多分歧——有人选择错过，有人则 愿意坚守。 崛 起 之 路 。 作者 I 刘博 报道 I 投资界PEdaily 这 也 许 会 是 被 载 入 史 册 的 一 幕 。 刚刚过去的一周，寒武纪股价涨至超12 0 0元，最新收盘市值突破5000亿元，成为A股历 史上第二只站上5 00 0亿元市值的千元股。 细想过去十年，哪些硬科技项目带给人民币基金超级回报？ "一个是宁德时代，另一个现 在是寒武纪。" 江西兄弟，始于中国科学院 曾跌到谷底 这是一对从江西走出的学霸兄弟。 陈云霁，1 9 83年出生于南昌，1 4岁入读中科大少年班，1 9岁转入中国科学院计算所硕博 连读，并参与了"龙芯"团队，成为当中最年轻的一员。24岁时，他博士毕业，后晋升为 研究员。 而比陈云霁小两岁的陈天石，几乎复制哥哥的成长路径，大学所读的也是中科大少年班， 并拿到计算机博士学 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The HBM market is projected to reach $46 billion by 2026, accounting for 35% of the DRAM market, with a CAGR of 33% from 2024 to 2030 [3][25] - AI-driven demand is significantly increasing, with the average storage capacity per AI server expected to double or quadruple, leading to exponential growth in total storage demand [3][12] - Major semiconductor manufacturers are ramping up HBM production, with capital expenditures for 2025 expected to exceed initial plans [3][12] Demand Side Summary - AI server shipments are forecasted to grow by 17.2% year-on-year, reaching 2.51 million units by 2026, driven by increased capital expenditures from major cloud service providers [6][25] - The average HBM capacity per AI server is expected to increase by 8 to 16 times due to higher configurations and the transition to next-generation HBM technologies [6][12] - The total HBM demand is projected to reach 34.05 billion GB by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 67% [25] Supply Side Summary - Major manufacturers like Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung are actively expanding HBM production capacity, with significant increases in capital expenditures planned for 2025 [3][12] - The supply of HBM is currently adequate, but the high growth in demand and the transition to higher-end HBM generations are expected to drive prices upward [11][12] - The competitive landscape is dominated by a few key players, with the market share of SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron expected to shift from 5:3:2 to 5:2:3 by 2026 [12] Price Outlook - The average selling price (ASP) of HBM is expected to rise to $1.84 per Gb by 2026, driven by the demand for high-end products [12][25] - The HBM market is currently in an upward price cycle, influenced by the recovery in terminal demand due to AI applications [3][12] Industry Overview - The semiconductor storage market is characterized by oligopolistic competition, with the top three manufacturers holding over 95% market share in DRAM and HBM [3][12] - The overall semiconductor storage market is projected to reach $165.5 billion in 2024, representing over 25% of the semiconductor market [3][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various ETF grid strategies focusing on Chinese internet, technology, software, and chip sectors, highlighting the potential for investment opportunities driven by regulatory changes and technological advancements [2][4][7][14]. Group 1: Chinese Internet ETF (159605.SZ) - The Chinese Internet ETF tracks the China Internet 30 Index, focusing on 30 leading Chinese internet companies listed in Hong Kong and the US, covering sectors like social media, e-commerce, gaming, and AI [4]. - Recent government reports emphasize the need to address "involution" in competition, particularly in the food delivery sector, promoting a healthier competitive environment [3]. - The ETF is positioned to benefit from a new wave of internet development driven by generative AI and a shift from "traffic-driven" to "technology + scenario-driven" business models [4]. Group 2: Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010.SH) - The Hang Seng Technology ETF tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, which includes 30 leading technology companies in Hong Kong, focusing on high-growth sectors such as new consumption, internet, biomedicine, and semiconductors [7]. - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 731.2 billion, indicating strong foreign interest and market liquidity [6]. - The current PE-TTM ratio of the Hang Seng Technology Index is 21.26, which is relatively low compared to its historical average, suggesting potential investment value [7]. Group 3: Software ETF (159852.SZ) - The Software ETF is influenced by government initiatives promoting "AI+" applications across various sectors, leading to significant advancements in the software industry [10]. - AI technologies are transforming software development processes, enhancing efficiency and driving a shift from labor-intensive to intelligent, value-creating models [11]. Group 4: Chip ETF (159995.SZ) - The Chip ETF is positioned amid a backdrop of easing restrictions on chip exports to China, although long-term challenges remain due to ongoing U.S. export controls [14]. - The establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund III, with a registered capital of RMB 344 billion, aims to accelerate domestic chip production and reduce reliance on foreign technology [14]. - The focus on domestic chip development is expected to enhance the entire supply chain from research and development to production, supporting the goal of technological independence [14].

Core Viewpoint - The agreement between NVIDIA, AMD, and the Trump administration involves a 15% revenue payment from AI chip sales to China to secure export licenses, reflecting a "technology for resources" strategy in US-China trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: Agreement Details - NVIDIA's H20 chip and AMD's MI308 chip will each contribute 15% of their sales revenue to the US government as a condition for export licenses [3]. - NVIDIA's H20 chip sales in China are projected to reach $12 billion in 2024, contributing approximately $1.8 billion to the US government [5]. - If AMD's MI308 chip resumes sales, it could contribute over $900 million annually based on an estimated $6.2 billion in sales [5]. Group 2: Market Impact - The agreement may provoke China to implement reciprocal measures, such as imposing similar "technology access fees" on US companies or enhancing security reviews [5][7]. - Chinese domestic chip manufacturers are rapidly increasing their market share, with Huawei's Ascend 910C chip outperforming NVIDIA's H100, and local firms like Cambrian seeing a 4200% revenue increase [5][6]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that China's chip self-sufficiency could rise from 34% in 2024 to 82% by 2027 [5]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The return of the H20 chip may provide short-term benefits for Chinese companies, but long-term risks remain due to the ongoing push for domestic alternatives [6]. - Analysts suggest that the US's "technology containment" strategy may inadvertently accelerate China's innovation efforts [6]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has not officially responded to potential countermeasures, but industry insiders anticipate adjustments in tariffs and data security reviews [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the AI-driven sectors, particularly in servers and IDC, as well as overseas AI developments in servers and optical modules [4]. Core Insights - The release of OpenAI's GPT-5 has significantly reduced reasoning costs, which is expected to facilitate the widespread adoption of AI technologies. GPT-5 shows a 50-80% reduction in token output compared to its predecessor, enhancing performance [1][6]. - Amphenol's acquisition of Commscope's connectivity and cable solutions business for $10.5 billion reinforces the trend of "optical fiber replacing copper," indicating a favorable outlook for MPO optical connector suppliers like Taicheng [1][8]. - The strong performance of Weidi Technology in Q2 2025, with an EPS of $0.95 and revenue of $2.64 billion, reflects the growing demand for liquid cooling solutions driven by the large-scale shipment of GB200 and GB300 servers [1][14]. - China Mobile's H1 2025 results show a revenue of CNY 543.77 billion, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 5.0% to CNY 84.24 billion, highlighting the company's strong dividend value and strategic investment in AI computing power [1][52]. Summary by Sections Communication Sector - The North American AI model updates continue to drive strong demand for computing power, with OpenAI's GPT-5 and Google DeepMind's Genie 3 significantly impacting the industry [1][6]. - The telecom business revenue for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 905.5 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1% [3][16]. Sub-sectors - **Servers**: The server index decreased by 0.13% this week, but the ongoing updates in AI models are expected to boost demand for server manufacturers like Industrial Fulian [2][11]. - **Optical Modules**: The optical module index increased by 0.37% this week, with Amphenol's acquisition of Commscope reinforcing the trend of optical fiber technology [2][8]. - **Liquid Cooling**: Weidi Technology's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, driven by the demand for liquid cooling solutions as server shipments increase [2][14]. Key Data Updates - The capital expenditures of major cloud companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon in Q2 2025 were substantial, indicating a strong investment trend in AI and cloud infrastructure [3][16].

Core Viewpoint - Huang Renxun, CEO of NVIDIA, is actively engaging with the Chinese market despite ongoing U.S. sanctions on semiconductor exports to China, highlighting the importance of China as a critical market for NVIDIA's growth and future opportunities [5][12][16]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Market Position and Challenges - NVIDIA has achieved a market capitalization exceeding 4 trillion yuan, driven by the global AI boom, but faces significant challenges due to U.S. export restrictions on its A100 and H100 chips to China [4][23]. - The company’s revenue from the Chinese market reached $17.1 billion in 2024, marking a 66% year-on-year increase, contributing 13% to NVIDIA's total revenue [17][18]. - The U.S. government's strict AI chip export regulations have led to a significant decline in NVIDIA's market share in Asia, dropping from 95% to 50% [20]. Group 2: Huang Renxun's Engagement with China - Huang Renxun has made multiple visits to China, emphasizing the importance of the Chinese market and expressing a desire to continue collaboration with Chinese companies [15][16]. - During his visits, he has praised China's rapid AI development and robust supply chain, indicating a strong commitment to maintaining NVIDIA's presence in the market [15][17]. - Huang's efforts include addressing employee morale in China amidst fears of layoffs due to the impact of U.S. sanctions [6][14]. Group 3: Product Adaptations and Future Prospects - In response to export restrictions, NVIDIA has developed a "special supply version" of its H100 chip, named H20, which has significantly reduced performance but is tailored for the current needs of Chinese companies [25][26]. - Huang Renxun anticipates that the H20 chip will find success in the Chinese market, despite its limitations, as companies are eager to invest in AI capabilities [26]. - The emergence of domestic competitors in China, such as Huawei, poses a potential threat to NVIDIA's market dominance, especially as these companies advance their own chip technologies [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Guoke Microelectronics Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 94.366% stake in SMIC Integrated Circuit (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. to accelerate its transformation from chip design to a full industry chain capability of "chip design + wafer processing" [1][4] Group 1: Transaction Details - The acquisition will be executed through issuing shares and cash payments to 11 counterparties, including Ningbo Yongxin and others, with a share price set at 57.01 yuan per share [3][5] - The transaction is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring as per the regulations, but it will not lead to a restructuring listing [5][10] - The transaction involves a strict three-year lock-up period for the selling parties regarding their shares in the listed company [11] Group 2: Strategic Background - The acquisition is a response to the increasing international trade tensions, aiming to enhance China's self-sufficiency in the integrated circuit industry [6] - China is the largest consumer market for RF filters, holding nearly 30% of the global market, yet local companies have less than 5% market share in the 5G high-frequency BAW filter segment [6] Group 3: Business Expansion - Prior to the acquisition, Guoke Micro focused on chip design and operated under a Fabless model, providing solutions in AI, multimedia, automotive electronics, IoT, and data storage [8] - The acquisition aims to enrich the product matrix and service categories, enhancing capabilities in high-end filters and MEMS manufacturing [9] Group 4: Financial Implications - Post-transaction, the company's asset scale and business strength are expected to increase, although the acquired company has reported significant losses [10] - Guoke Micro's Q1 revenue was 305 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.89%, while net profit increased by 25% to 51.51 million yuan [10]

Group 1: Hangzhou Kelin - Hangzhou Kelin has developed a full range of products across all voltage levels in line with the digitalization trend of the power grid, positioning itself as an industry leader [1] - The company has successfully signed a procurement contract for perovskite components, achieving commercial application in MW-level scenarios with an efficiency of 21.1% [1] - Based on its sensor R&D experience, Hangzhou Kelin is advancing the development of six-dimensional force sensors, expecting to generate business revenue in the second half of this year [1] Group 2: Xidi Micro - Xidi Micro achieved total operating revenue of 54,551.06 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.58%, with a gross profit of 16,966.56 million yuan, up 17.59% [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 17,767.93 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.56%, although it recorded a net loss of 2,726.48 million yuan, indicating a narrowing of losses [2] - The smart visual perception business, particularly the voice coil motor driver chips, has become a major growth driver, with a shipment value of 54,192.25 million yuan in 2024 [2] - The trade war has had no substantial impact on the company, which is expected to accelerate domestic chip substitution [2] - The company maintains a strong development momentum in consumer electronics and automotive electronics, with the value of automotive-grade chips reaching 40 to 50 USD per vehicle [2] - Xidi Micro's AI power supply chip products are in the debugging stage, with high market demand anticipated [2] - The management is optimistic about future performance, aiming for profitability and positive cash flow [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent research conducted by Tianyidao Investment on the listed company Xidiwei, showcasing its financial performance and growth prospects [1] - Xidiwei is projected to achieve total revenue of 545.51 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.58%, with a gross profit of 169.67 million yuan, up 17.59% [1] - In Q1 2025, Xidiwei reported total revenue of 177.68 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.56%, although it recorded a net loss of 27.26 million yuan, indicating a narrowing of losses [1] - The company's smart visual perception business, particularly the voice coil motor driver chips, is identified as a key growth driver, with a shipment value expected to reach 541.92 million yuan in 2024 [1] - The trade war has had no substantial impact on the company, which is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution of chips [1] - Despite a slight decline in revenue in Q1 2025 due to the Spring Festival holiday, the company remains optimistic about future quarters [1] - Xidiwei's overall gross margin stands at 30%, with potential for improvement [1] - Both consumer electronics and automotive electronics sectors are showing strong growth, with the value of automotive-grade chips per vehicle estimated at 40 to 50 USD [1] - AI computing power supply chip products are currently in the debugging phase, with high market demand [1] - The company maintains a stable partnership with Xiaomi Group, offering a diverse range of products [1] - Xidiwei is actively seeking quality target companies and promoting collaborations, with management expressing confidence in achieving profitability and positive cash flow in the future [1] Group 2 - Tianyidao Investment is a well-established private equity firm with a registered capital of 10 million yuan, recognized as one of the first to obtain private placement qualifications and has a management scale exceeding 5 billion yuan [2] - The firm employs a multi-strategy approach, integrating artificial intelligence, quantitative stock selection, and programmatic trading strategies, and has successfully navigated multiple market cycles [2] - Tianyidao Investment has received various awards from authoritative institutions and media, establishing a strong reputation in the industry [2]

Group 1: Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 528 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.42% [1] - The net profit loss was 113 million yuan, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1] - Operating cash flow turned positive with a net amount of 24.82 million yuan [1] - R&D investment totaled 191 million yuan, up 36.18% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market and Product Development - The company is expanding into emerging application areas such as new energy, computing, and automotive sectors to enhance competitiveness and market share [2] - In the new energy sector, the company launched PMIC chips for solar applications based on proprietary technology [2] - The semiconductor industry is benefiting from AI-driven recovery and ongoing domestic substitution, with a positive market outlook [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The domestic semiconductor industry is focusing on self-sufficiency and high-end development, accelerated by external technological restrictions [3] - The company aims to achieve domestic chip product substitution to reduce reliance on imports and provide high-quality products for the domestic market [3] - The company plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance international strategy and overseas business development [3]