1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices were high in the first half of the week and then declined due to the cooling of gasoline - blending speculation. The market sentiment was strong at the beginning of the week, but there was no substantial positive news in the second half, and the PX supply was not affected. The decline in PX prices was also related to the smaller - than - expected reduction in South Korea's PX exports to China in November [9]. - PTA prices followed the cost trend and declined. Although it rose with the increase of crude oil and PX prices before, its fundamentals did not change significantly, and the downstream polyester operating rate remained at about 89%. Currently, the PTA export outlook is good, and the continuous inventory reduction provides support [9]. 2.2 Market Forecast - Crude oil prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range due to the unclear geopolitical situation. For PX, the gasoline - blending logic has been disproven, and attention should be paid to the operation of South Korean PX plants and Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan next year. For PTA, the inventory will change from slight reduction to balance, and the processing fee will remain low this year. The short - term demand for polyester is relatively stable, and there is positive news in the export market, but it is not enough to reduce inventory. The weaving market shows increased activity in new product development for foreign trade orders, but the profit margin is compressed [10]. - Overall, PX will oscillate at a high level in the range of 6,750 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and PTA will also oscillate at a high level in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - PX futures declined significantly over the weekend as the gasoline - blending speculation faded. From November 28th to December 5th, the closing price of the PX main contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.29%, while the settlement price increased by 84 yuan/ton, a change of 1.24%. From December 1st - 5th, the average basis of the main contract was - 185 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,700.80 yuan/ton, a 2.09% increase from the previous period [13][15][17]. - The price of naphtha in December was 564 dollars/ton, PX CFR China was 848 dollars/ton, and Sinopec's PX contract settlement price was 7,000 yuan/ton (listed price) [18]. 3.1.2 PTA - PTA futures fluctuated around the cost recently. From November 28th to December 5th, the closing price of the PTA main contract decreased by 22 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.47%, and the settlement price increased by 28 yuan/ton, a change of 0.60%. The average basis of the main contract from November 24th - 28th was - 33.20 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 594 dollars/ton, a 1.71% increase from the previous period, and the average spot price in the East China market was 4,696.4 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase [19][21][24]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - Domestic PX devices: Many PX plants in different regions have different operating loads. For example, Ningbo Daxie operates at 70 - 80% capacity, and some plants of Zhejiang Petrochemical, Shenghong Refining & Chemical, etc. have specific load - related operations. The domestic PX device load slightly decreased from 88.92% in the period of November 24th - 28th to 88.52% in the period of December 1st - 5th [29][32]. - Asian other PX devices: PX plants in various Asian countries and regions have different operating conditions, such as Pertamina in Indonesia, Exxon Mobil in Singapore, etc., with some plants having maintenance, shutdown, or restart situations [30][31]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Some PTA plants are under maintenance, such as Yisheng Dahua's 225 - million - ton device has been shut down since August 8th, and the restart time is undetermined. The weekly operating rate of PTA devices increased by 1.89%, and there is an enhanced expectation of inventory accumulation from January to February next year [35][36]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - Crude oil: Geopolitical uncertainties support the market. On December 5th, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 60.08 dollars/barrel, a 1.53 - dollar increase from November 28th, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil was 63.75 dollars/barrel, a 1.37 - dollar increase [41][43]. - Naphtha: The economic efficiency continued to be compressed this week, and the East - West arbitrage spread remained high. The weekly average price of naphtha CFR Japan was 571.43 dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 66.16 dollars/ton [47][49]. 3.3.2 Supply - PX processing margin: The PXN weekly average was 284.78 yuan/ton, a 8.08% change from the previous period. The PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 116.50 yuan/ton [50][52]. - PTA processing fee: The average spot processing fee of PTA from December 1st - 5th was 169.33 yuan/ton, lower than the previous week's 197.35 yuan/ton. The processing fee is expected to improve next year [54][56]. - Inventory: As of December 5th, the PTA social inventory was 3.804 million tons, a 67,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. The inventory days of PTA factories and polyester factories increased. The domestic PTA manufacturers' average inventory usage days were 3.92 days, and the polyester factories' raw material inventory days were 7.50 days as of December 4th [59][61][65]. 3.3.3 Demand - Polyester: The average market prices of polyester products such as polyester filament and polyester staple fiber changed. The average weekly polyester production and sales were estimated to be 50%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.11%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 71.20%. As of December 4th, the filament inventory increased [67][69][72]. - Weaving: The domestic weaving market is in the off - season. The order volume of weaving and dyeing factories is low, and the inventory pressure of grey fabrics is increasing. Although the activity of new product development for foreign trade orders has increased, the profit margin of enterprises is compressed. As of December 4th, the opening rates of weaving machines in different regions changed to different extents [82][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - Short - term, industrial enterprise profit growth faces pressure, but may improve in 2025 with policy implementation. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10, with a mild appreciation rhythm. The stock index is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the bond market may be affected by policy expectations [2][4]. Commodities Metals - Platinum and palladium are likely to be weak in the short term, with investment attributes as the main driver. Gold and silver are expected to rise in the long - term, but silver may face short - term profit - taking pressure. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina may be weak. Zinc is expected to be strong, and nickel and stainless steel will continue to oscillate. Tin prices are strongly driven by funds, and short - term shorting is not recommended. Lithium carbonate prices may experience a short - term correction [12][16][18][20]. Black Metals - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500. Iron ore prices have limited downside in the short term. Coking coal and coke prices may face short - term pressure, and ferroalloys are expected to be weakly oscillatory [30][31][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate downward in the long - term, with short - term multi - empty factors in balance. LPG is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern. PX - PTA has a relatively good supply - demand structure, but PTA processing fee recovery space is limited. MEG is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the valuation is under pressure in the long - term. Methanol 01 maintains a weak expectation. PP and PE are expected to be oscillatory, with PE showing a weakening trend. EB is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. Fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [40][41][43][46][50]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be affected by policy in the long - term, but in the short - term, the near - month delivery pressure persists. Oilseeds and oils are expected to oscillate, waiting for market guidance. Cotton prices have limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level. Sugar prices remain weak, eggs are expected to be bearish in the long - term, apples maintain a strong pattern, and jujubes may have limited downside in the short - term [79][80][81][83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Pay attention to US PCE inflation data. China - France high - level meetings are held, and the US employment market shows a "no - firing, no - hiring" pattern. There are rumors that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December, and the EU plans to build a unified capital market [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.069 on the previous trading day, down 29 basis points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was raised by 21 basis points. Short - term, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated strongly on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising 0.34%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1,210.02 billion yuan. Short - term, the stock index is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the release of PCE data [4][5][7]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds closed down on Thursday, with the 30 - year yield reaching a high point. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase was 180.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. Short - term, the market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting [7]. Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping market fluctuated slightly on December 4. The 02 contract has limited upward space, and the far - month contracts are under pressure from the expected resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The market is affected by multiple factors, with long - short factors competing [8][9][10]. Commodities Metals Platinum and Palladium - NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts closed down at night. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is about 89%. Short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and prices mainly follow gold and silver [12]. Gold and Silver - London gold and silver prices showed a pattern of gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is high. Long - term, precious metal prices are expected to rise, but short - term, silver may face profit - taking pressure [13][14][16]. Copper - Overnight, Comex copper, LME copper, etc. had different trends. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors [17][18]. Aluminum and Related Products - Shanghai aluminum closed up, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly oscillatory [20][21]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc closed up. The ADP data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, supply may contract, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strongly oscillatory [21][22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel and stainless steel oscillated. Nickel ore is expected to be stable and strong, and the new - energy sector has limited support. Stainless steel fundamentals have limited improvement, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and the December interest - rate cut expectation [22][23][24]. Tin - Shanghai tin was strongly driven by funds. The ADP data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, and the supply side has problems. Short - term, shorting is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the 315,000 yuan level [25]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures contract closed up slightly. The spot market sentiment improved, but the price may experience a short - term correction [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to environmental protection. Polysilicon's short - term trading focuses on the "warehouse receipt inventory and open interest" game [27][28]. Lead - Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly and rose slightly at night. The smelting side has production cuts, and the inventory has decreased. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,400 [29]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices oscillated strongly. The supply - demand balance is improving marginally, but the profit of steel enterprises is declining. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500 [30][31]. Iron Ore - Iron ore oscillated, and the industrial contradictions were alleviated. The steel demand is in the off - season, and the steel mill's production cut and profit recovery provide support. The short - term price has limited downside [32][34]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke contracts completed the main contract change. Coking coal supply is in a slight surplus, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Coking coal 01 is in a short - term bearish trend, while the 05 contract has long - term multi - allocation value [35][36]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded. The steel mill's profitability is declining, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded. The market is affected by the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and the US - Russia negotiation. Long - term, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [40][41]. LPG - LPG prices maintained an oscillatory pattern. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. The price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [42][43]. PTA - PX - PX supply decreased slightly, and PTA supply increased. The demand for polyester is high, and PTA processing fees have been repaired. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans and the dynamics of blending oil [44][46]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG supply increased, and the demand for polyester is high. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the long - term valuation is under pressure [47][50]. Methanol - Methanol 01 maintained a weak expectation. The price rebounded due to the shutdown in Iran. The subsequent game focuses on unloading speed, inland demand, and Iranian shipping volume [51][52]. PP - PP prices were weak in the spot market. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand is weak. The current valuation is low, and shorting is not recommended [53][55]. PE - PE prices returned to a weak oscillatory pattern. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to be weakly oscillatory [56][57]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene is in a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the export demand of styrene and the terminal demand [58][59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply and demand of fuel oil are affected by multiple factors [60][61][62]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices declined slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The winter - storage policy is about to be introduced, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [62][64]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog futures prices declined. The northern and southern pig markets showed different trends. Policy may affect long - term supply, but near - month delivery pressure persists [79][80]. Oilseeds - The external market of oilseeds oscillated weakly, and the domestic market followed. The supply of imported soybeans and the demand for domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by multiple factors. Attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement [81][82]. Oils - The domestic oils market oscillated. The supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by different factors. The price is expected to continue to oscillate, waiting for data guidance [83]. Cotton - ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton prices declined. The new cotton is accelerating to the market, and the downstream has resilience. The cotton price has limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level [84]. Sugar - International and domestic sugar prices were weak. The global sugar supply is in excess, and the price is expected to remain weak [85][86]. Eggs - Egg futures prices remained unchanged. The market demand has recovered, and the inventory has been cleared. The long - term egg production capacity is still in excess, and the price is expected to be bearish [87]. Apples - Apple futures prices declined, but the strong pattern remains. The inventory of late - Fuji apples decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [88][89]. Jujubes - Jujube prices oscillated at a low level. The new jujubes are being harvested, and the price may have limited downside in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the final production [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices were low at the beginning of the week and high at the end, mainly due to the continued enthusiasm for gasoline blending in the market. The hype about gasoline blending continued to cool down, but from the supply - demand perspective, the South Korean GS plant has a later shutdown plan, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has a CDU maintenance plan in January, which may lead to a decline in PX load and an expected improvement in the PX supply side. The sentiment support for PX remained strong during the week [8]. - PTA prices followed the cost increase, mainly due to a slight reduction in inventory and the strength of PX. There were few changes in PTA plants this week. Honggang Petrochemical restarted, and Zhongtai Petrochemical increased its load. The average processing fee for the week was still below 200 yuan/ton. The downstream polyester start - up rate remained oscillating around 89%. The polyester factories' equity inventory was not high, and the rigid demand for PTA was good [8]. 2.2 Future Market Forecast - Crude oil: The biggest problem in the peaceful settlement of the Russia - Ukraine issue lies in territorial disputes, and the probability of short - term negotiation success is low. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate narrowly. PX: The domestic PX supply has entered a relatively stable stage. Recently, focus on the operation of South Korean PX plants and Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan next year. PTA: The delay in plant maintenance has accelerated short - term inventory reduction, but there are no other plant start - stop plans later, and the processing fee will remain low this year. Polyester: The market is transitioning to the off - season, short - term demand is generally stable, and there are positive news in the export market, but it needs time to verify. Weaving: The downstream new orders are weakening, and the坯布 inventory is gradually transitioning from destocking to slight inventory accumulation, and it is difficult to improve this year [11]. - Overall, PX will fluctuate at a high level, with an operating range of 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton; PTA will also fluctuate at a high level, with an operating range of 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - **PX Futures**: The closing price of the PX main contract on November 28 was 6830 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of 1.19%. The settlement price on November 28 was 6780 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of 0.06% [16]. - **PX Spot**: From November 24 - 28, the average basis of the main contract was - 227 yuan/ton; the average domestic PX spot price was 6535.20 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a change of - 0.02% [19]. 3.1.2 PTA - **PTA Futures**: The closing price of the PTA main contract on November 28 was 4700 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of 0.73%. The settlement price on November 28 was 4672 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of - 0.13% [22][23]. - **PTA Spot**: From November 24 - 28, the average basis of the main contract was - 40.40 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 584 US dollars/ton, up 0.2 US dollars/ton from the previous period, with a change of 0.01%. The average price of PTA spot in the East China market was 4627.8 yuan/ton, up 2.2 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a change of 0.05% [26]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - **Domestic PX Devices**: Many domestic PX plants have different operating loads. For example, Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. operates at 90% load, and Yangzi Petrochemical operates at full load. The overall domestic PX plant load decreased slightly from 90.50% from November 17 - 21 to 88.92% from November 24 - 28, mainly due to the early maintenance of Zhonghua Quanzhou [30][34]. - **Asian Other PX Devices**: Some PX plants in Asia have experienced changes such as shutdowns, restarts, and load adjustments. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia restarted after a shutdown in early January, and GS Caltex in South Korea plans to shut down around mid - December [32]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Many PTA plants are in a state of shutdown or maintenance. For example, Yisheng Dalian's 225 - ton PTA plant has been shut down since August 8, and the restart time is undetermined. Recently, there have been many PTA plant maintenance, and the weekly start - up rate has dropped by 2.37% [37][38]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: Although the net increase of international crude oil futures this week was about 1%, the market's expectation of an increase in global supply still suppressed oil prices. The WTI crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 58.55 US dollars/barrel, up 0.49 US dollars/barrel from November 21. The Brent crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.18 US dollars/barrel from November 21 [43][45]. - **Naphtha**: The demand for naphtha in Europe is weak, and the gasoline blending demand is not enough to support the price. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 561.78 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 67.81 US dollars/ton. The ethylene cracking weekly average price rebounded this week [50]. 3.3.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The short - process efficiency has expanded due to the hype of gasoline blending. The weekly average PXN was 265.49 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 2.24%. The PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 107 US dollars/ton [55]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The processing fee has remained low this year and is expected to improve next year. From November 24 - 28, the average spot processing fee of PTA this week was 209.11 yuan/ton, compared with 177.03 yuan/ton last week [59]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the social inventory of PTA was 3.871 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous week, with a month - on - month growth rate change of - 0.42%. The PTA factory inventory days decreased by 0.03 days, and the polyester factory inventory days increased by 0.35 days [63][65]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Polyester**: The overall demand is not strong, which is negative for polyester product prices. The average market prices of polyester filament semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 0.76%, 0.19%, and 0.22% respectively compared with the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a decline of 0.02%. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5680 - 5760 yuan/ton, and the average price this period was 5728.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous period [69][72]. - **Weaving**: The domestic weaving market demand has significantly weakened, and the placement of foreign trade orders is relatively smooth. As of November 27, the opening rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang and Changxing remained stable, the circular knitting machine opening rate in Xiaoshao decreased by 1.19%, and the warp - knitting opening rates in Haining and Changshu remained stable [84][86].

Group 1: Main Views Weekly Summary - PX prices were low at the beginning of the week and high at the end due to continued market enthusiasm for gasoline blending. Supply-side expectations are positive as the South Korean GS plant has a later shutdown plan and Zhejiang Petrochemical has a CDU maintenance plan in January. - PTA prices followed the cost increase, with slight inventory reduction and strong PX as the main reasons. PTA plant changes were few this week, and the processing fee average was still below 200 yuan/ton. Downstream polyester开工 remained around 89%, and polyester factories' equity inventory was not high, with strong rigid demand for PTA [7]. Market Outlook Forecast - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly as the short-term probability of a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine issue is low. PX supply in China has entered a relatively stable phase, and the focus is on the operation of South Korean PX plants and Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan next year. PTA inventory is decreasing in the short term, but processing fees will remain low this year. Polyester demand is generally stable in the short term, and the export market has positive news but needs time to verify. The downstream weaving market has weak new orders, and inventory is gradually increasing, with no improvement expected this year. - Overall, PX will oscillate at a high level in the range of 6,750 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and PTA will also oscillate at a high level in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. - Strategy recommendation: Stay on the sidelines [10]. Group 2: Price Situation PX Futures - The closing price of the PX main contract on November 28 was 6,830 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of 1.19%. The settlement price on November 28 was 6,780 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of 0.06%. - From November 24 - 28, the average basis of the main contract was -227 yuan/ton. The average domestic spot price of PX was 6,535.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of -0.02% [15][17]. PTA Futures - The closing price of the PTA main contract on November 28 was 4,700 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of 0.73%. The settlement price on November 28 was 4,672 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of -0.13%. - The average weekly price of PTA in the Chinese market was 584 US dollars/ton, up 0.2 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of 0.01%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,627.8 yuan/ton, up 2.2 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of 0.05% [21][24]. Group 3: Device Operation Status PX Device - Domestic PX device load decreased slightly due to the early maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou. From November 24 - 28, the load was 88.92%, compared with 90.50% from November 17 - 21. - Asian PX device operation status: Some devices in South Korea, Indonesia, and other regions have load changes and maintenance plans [33][31]. PTA Device - Many PTA devices are under maintenance, and the supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The weekly开工 rate decreased by 2.37%. Some devices such as Yisheng Dahua, Hainan Yisheng, and others have been shut down or are under maintenance, and the restart time is undetermined [36][37]. Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Cost - Crude oil: Although the international crude oil futures rose about 1% this week, the expectation of increased global supply still suppressed oil prices. WTI crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 58.55 US dollars/barrel, up 0.49 US dollars/barrel from November 21. Brent crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.18 US dollars/barrel from November 21. - Naphtha: European naphtha demand is weak, and the blending demand is insufficient to support prices. The average weekly price of naphtha CFR Japan was 561.78 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit was 67.81 US dollars/ton [42][44]. Supply - PX processing margin: The short-process efficiency has expanded due to gasoline blending speculation. The weekly average of PXN was 265.49 yuan/ton, a change of 2.24% from the previous period. PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 107 US dollars/ton. - PTA processing fee: The processing fee has remained low this year and is expected to improve next year. From November 24 - 28, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 209.11 yuan/ton. - Inventory: PTA inventory reduction provides bottom support for prices, but there may be negative feedback after the terminal actively reduces the load in January. As of November 28, PTA social inventory was 3.871 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous week [52][56][61]. Demand - Polyester: Overall demand is weak, which is negative for polyester product prices. The average market prices of polyester filament and staple fiber have declined to varying degrees. From November 24 - 28, the average weekly polyester production and sales were estimated to be 60%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.19%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 71.73%. - Weaving: The domestic weaving market demand has significantly weakened, and foreign trade orders are relatively smooth. As of November 27, the opening rates of some weaving areas were stable or slightly decreased [67][72][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is expected to continue oscillating, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics having a slightly stronger pattern. The geopolitical premium of crude oil is expected to keep fluctuating, and the supply pressure persists. [3][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - Market news: Iran has raised its combat readiness level; a Venezuelan crude oil upgrading unit has stopped operating; Singapore's medium and light distillate inventories have reached multi - week highs. [6] - Main logic: After the release of non - farm data, the overseas risk appetite weakened. The geopolitical concerns have diminished, but the risks related to Russia and Venezuela are still hard to disprove, causing the geopolitical premium to swing. The alleviation of refined oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads provide phased support to oil prices. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production due to the supply surplus, but the current oversupply situation remains unchanged, so the price will oscillate. [7] 3.2 Performance and Outlook of Each Variety - **Asphalt**: On November 20, 2025, the main asphalt futures closed at 3058 yuan/ton. The price oscillated widely. OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, and the geopolitical situation has eased, causing the asphalt price to first fall below 3000 yuan/ton and then rise. The high absolute price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts. [8][9] - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: On November 20, 2025, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2517 yuan/ton. The price was driven down by the expectation of a Russia - Ukraine framework agreement. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the crack spread is continuously weak. Geopolitical upgrades will have a short - term impact on prices, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine situation. [8] - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: On November 20, 2025, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3139 yuan/ton. It followed the sharp decline of diesel. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil. [10] - **PX**: On November 20, the CFR China Taiwan price was 831(+4) dollars/ton. The price was affected by frequent speculation in oil blending, and its profitability was maintained under the support of polyester demand. In the short term, it will be significantly affected by market sentiment and funds, and the price is expected to oscillate. [11] - **PTA**: On November 20, the spot price was 4633(-7) yuan/ton. The fundamentals improved marginally due to longer - than - expected device maintenance and the support of downstream polyester demand. The price will oscillate with costs, and the TA01 - 05 reverse spread position can be temporarily withdrawn for observation. [11] - **Pure benzene**: On November 20, the 2603 contract closed at 5596 yuan, up 1.14%. The price rebounded after a decline, driven by US aromatic oil blending. The game between expectations and reality will repeatedly dominate the market, leading to an oscillating and chaotic market. [11][12] - **Styrene**: On November 20, the East China spot price was 6580(+70) yuan/ton. The price rebounded and then oscillated. The driving force for going long is difficult to confirm, and the short - selling space is limited. The price will be affected by oil - blending news and the pressure on pure benzene. [13] - **Ethylene glycol (MEG)**: On November 20, the main contract 2601 closed at 3822 yuan, down 2.05%. The price is weakly operating due to the medium - term inventory accumulation pressure. The rebound height is limited, and it will maintain a low - level oscillating and weak operation. [15][17] - **Polyester staple fiber**: On November 20, the Zhejiang market spot price rose 15 yuan to 6310 yuan/ton. The price passively followed the upstream. The export demand is strong, and the price will oscillate with the upstream, with the processing fee expected to be compressed. [18][19] - **Polyester bottle chips**: On November 20, the main contract closed at 5682 yuan/ton (-64 yuan/ton). The supply - demand drive is limited, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger downward support. [20] - **Methanol**: On November 20, the low - end spot price in Taicang was 1985 yuan/ton. The price oscillated at a low level due to high inventory and insignificant overseas disturbances. In the short term, it will have a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for overseas disturbance information. [22] - **Urea**: On November 20, the high - end and low - end prices in the Shandong market were 1650(+20) yuan/ton and 1630(+10) yuan/ton respectively. The price oscillated in a narrow range. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is supported. The market sentiment is uncertain, and the price may reverse its upward trend. [22] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: On November 20, the spot mainstream price was 6850 yuan/ton. The price oscillated. The support from its own fundamentals is limited, and the profit support is also limited. It will oscillate in the short term. [23][24] - **PP**: On November 20, the East China PP拉丝 mainstream transaction price was 6430(-20) yuan/ton. The price oscillated. The self - fundamental support is limited, and attention should be paid to the changes in device maintenance. It will oscillate in the short term. [24][25] - **PL**: On November 20, the low - end market price in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton. The price oscillated. The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It will oscillate in the short term. [26] - **PVC**: On November 20, the East China calcium carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4500(-30) yuan/ton. The price may be anchored to production cuts due to high inventory. The fundamentals are pessimistic, and the market will be cautiously weak, with attention paid to marginal device dynamics. [27] - **Caustic soda**: On November 20, the Shandong 32% caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2438 yuan/ton. The price oscillated with weak supply - demand and low valuation. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost, and the price will have a wide - range oscillation. [28] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, etc., including the latest values and changes. [33] - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The report shows the basis, basis changes, and warehouse receipt quantities of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [34] - **Inter - variety spread**: The report presents the inter - variety spreads of combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., along with their changes. [35] 3.4 Index Performance - **Comprehensive index**: The commodity index was 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index was 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial product index was 2200.99, down 0.68%. [276] - **Energy index**: On November 20, 2025, the energy index was 1140.78, with a daily decline of 1.49%, a 5 - day decline of 0.74%, a 1 - month decline of 1.34%, and a year - to - date decline of 7.10%. [278]