热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 张驰宁 投资咨询号：Z0020302 国泰君安期货市场分析师 昨日召开的中央政治局会议可视为中央经济工作会议的"预告片"，其明确提出2026年将继续实施"更加 积极的财政政策"和"适度宽松的货币政策"，这套"宽财政+宽货币"的组合拳预示着整体资金环境将保持 宽松，为商品市场奠定宏观背景。在此基调明确后，作为期货投资者，在随后的中央经济工作会议公布 具体部署前，我们可以提前关注哪些细化看点？ 看点一：听"语气" 我们可以在后续表述中特别留意是否出现诸如"加大宏观调控力度"、"强化逆周期和跨周期调节"等表 述，如果其表述强度进一步提升，甚至出现"超常规"、"奋力"等非常规措辞，通常意味着政策决心或显 著增强，这将对市场情绪形成有力提振，也预示着总需求有望得到更强力的支撑，从而促进整体商品市 场的信心回暖。 看点二：看"工具" 1． 财政：钱从哪来，花到哪去？ "钱从哪里来？"： 后续应重点关注赤字率以及特别国债、专项债的规模，这直接反映了中央政府加杠杆的力度。若政策明 确释放"加力提效"的信号，且赤字与国债规模超出市场预期，则意味着政府明年将更积极 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注美国 PCE 通胀数据 【市场资讯】1）中国国家主席和国务院总理分别会见来华进行国事访问的法国总统马克龙。 2）私人数据商称美国 11 月非农就业岗位减少 9000，10 月下修至减 1.55 万；美挑战者报 告：企业 11 月裁员 7.1 万人，同比增速放缓至 24%，但仍为 2022 年以来同期最高水平； 美国就业进入"不裁不招"模式：上周首次申请失业救济人数不增反降创逾三年新低，招聘 计划大幅下降。3）报道：日本央行或于 12 月加息，政府或将容忍此举，日元盘中创逾两 周新高；日债风暴升级，长债收益率集体飙升至数十年新高。4）瞄准 33 万亿欧元居民储 蓄，欧盟拟打破金融服务国家壁垒，推动打造真正的统一资本市场。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，10 月份受上年同期基数抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规 模以上工业企业利润同比下降 5.5%。当前工业企业利润增速受"量价双弱"格局拖累，边际 回落特征显著，营收利润率偏弱的态势未得到明显改善。展望短期，预计年内规模以上工 业企业利润增速将持续面临较大压力，大概率维持弱势震荡格局。中长期来看，随着宏观 托底政策逐步落地见效，叠加"反内卷"相关 ...

Core Insights - The article narrates the trading journey of Mr. Zhang, who transitioned from a stable job in aluminum trading to the volatile futures market, facing multiple setbacks before achieving consistent profitability [1][3][4]. Trading Journey - Mr. Zhang began trading in 2005, initially facing significant challenges, including four account liquidations over seven years, resulting in total losses of 200,000 yuan [3][4]. - In 2012, he restarted with a 50,000 yuan capital and gradually established a profitable trading strategy, achieving a remarkable 485% profit in 2015 [4][5]. Key to Sustained Profitability - Mr. Zhang emphasizes the importance of patience and risk management, suggesting that traders should minimize losses during sideways markets and maximize gains during trending markets [5][6]. - He believes that taking breaks after losses is crucial for maintaining a healthy mindset and improving trading performance [5][6]. Trading Methodology - Mr. Zhang advocates for focusing on a few specific trading instruments, primarily in sectors like non-ferrous metals, stock indices, and agricultural products, to enhance expertise and risk management [9]. - He employs a strategy of entering trades at optimal points where the risk-reward ratio is favorable, often using technical indicators to identify these points [9][10]. Position Management - His trading approach includes a four-step process: trial position, building position, adding to position, and exiting [11][12]. - He highlights the significance of adjusting position sizes based on market conditions and personal risk tolerance, especially during periods of volatility [11][12]. Reflections and Learning - Mr. Zhang regularly reviews his trading performance to identify strengths and weaknesses, reinforcing the idea that continuous learning and adaptation are vital for success in trading [13][14]. - He stresses the importance of finding a trading style that aligns with one's personality and strengths, advocating for specialization rather than attempting to master all trading techniques [6][7].