金融期货早评 宏观：政策加力稳增长 【市场资讯】1）中共中央政治局召开会议，讨论拟提请二十届四中全会审议的文件。2） 国家发改委：新型政策性金融工具规模共 5000 亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金，支持民 营企业等深度参与"人工智能+"行动。3）国家税务总局：平台企业不得以任何形式将自身 涉税义务转嫁给平台内从业人员；据互联网平台涉税信息报送新规，平台外卖员、快递员 等人员年入 12 万元以下基本无需纳税。4）为降特朗普的 39%关税，瑞士据称提议投资美 炼金业。贸易战打到文化战：特朗普威胁对海外制片征 100%关税，好莱坞懵了。5）美国 劳工统计局：一旦发生政府停摆，将暂停所有运转，期间不会发布经济数据。6）创纪录涨 势后，美国黄金储备价值触及 1 万亿美元。7）特朗普称以色列同意结束加沙冲突"20 点计 划"，谢克尔盘中涨近 2%，哈马斯高官称尚未收到计划；卡塔尔称收到以总理道歉，其承 诺不再对卡方发动类似多哈袭击。8 俄罗斯对乌克兰发动大规模袭击，美国正考虑向乌提 供"战斧"导弹。 【核心逻辑】目前，供需端政策正在逐步推进，需求端聚焦 "惠民生、促消费"，年内政策 围绕释放消费潜力展开，后续或仍有增量政策 ...

Core Insights - As of the end of 2024, 529 out of 5,383 listed companies in China's A-share market are participating in futures and options trading, representing 9.8% of all listed companies and 35.8% of the market capitalization [1] - The number of listed companies engaging in commodity futures and options has increased, with 509 companies participating, accounting for 9.5% of all listed companies and over 30% of market capitalization, showing an improvement from 2023 levels [1][3] - The average market capitalization of companies participating in commodity futures and options is 66.69 billion yuan, which is significantly higher than the overall market average of 18.36 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 22.1% from 2023 [3] Group 1 - The cumulative hedging position of non-financial listed companies in commodity futures has exceeded 50% of their total cumulative positions, marking a 15 percentage point increase from 2023 [3] - The participation of state-owned listed companies in the commodity futures and options market is notable, with approximately 40% of all listed companies being state-owned and accounting for nearly 80% of the total cumulative positions [3] - The participation rate in various commodity futures and options is high, with companies engaging in 116 different products, which is 92% of the total listed products for the year [3] Group 2 - The increase in the number of technology innovation-oriented listed companies participating in the futures market indicates the market's positive role in supporting new productivity and industrial development [3] - The most actively traded commodity futures include copper, aluminum, silver, gold, lithium carbonate, rebar, and hot-rolled coil, highlighting the sectors with high participation [3]

宏观：美国 9 月制造业、服务业 PMI 回落 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1133，较上一交易日上涨 15 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1119。人民币对美元中间价报 7.1057，较上一交易日调升 49 个基点。 【重要资讯】1）美国 9 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值为 52，预期 52，8 月终值 53。服务业 PMI 初值为 53.9，综合 PMI 初值为 53.6。2）欧元区 9 月制造业 PMI 初值 49.5，预期为持 平于 50.7；服务业 PMI 初值从 50.5 升至 51.4。德国服务业 PMI 跃升至 52.5，制造业 PMI 则跌至 48.5 的四个月低位。3）英国 9 月制造业 PMI 初值意外放缓至 46.2，创 5 个月新低； 服务业 PMI 初值更是超预期下降至 51.9，拖累综合 PMI 初值跌至 4 个月新低的 51。4）美 联储——①古尔斯比：目前没有考虑降息 50 个基点。最终美联储利率可能会稳定在 3%左 右。②鲍曼：预计 2025 年共降息三次。③博斯蒂克：认为当前实际中性利率为 1.25%；未 来某个阶段可能支持将通胀目标区间设 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：经济仍需政府部门发力托底 【市场资讯】1）中美就妥善解决 TikTok 问题达成基本框架共识。李成钢：中国绝不会以 牺牲原则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价，寻求达成任何协议。2）中国公布 8 月经 济数据，显现"工业缓、投资弱、消费淡"特征，新一轮政策宽松预期升温。8 月 70 城房价： 一线二手房价环比降幅 1%持平上月，各线新房房价同比降幅有所收窄。3）从美东时间 16 日 0 时 1 分起，美国对日本汽车的进口关税下调至 15%。4）美国密歇根税务官员：没有证 据表明美联储理事库克的主要住宅违反税收政策。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，从今年的政策导向来看，我国对消费领域的重视程度正与日俱增。 政策转向的背后是由于收入分配层面的失衡，使得国内有效需求难以充分释放，导致资本 回报率呈现递减趋势。当前年内逐步落地的一系列需求端政策并非终点，后续仍将有更多 民生领域的相关政策逐步出台、落地。其次，8 月经济数据显示，经济增速延续放缓态势， 投资端走弱特征显著，消费增速虽边际放缓，但放缓幅度有所收窄。当前经济边际下滑的 背后，更多反映的是经济运行中的核心矛盾；与此同时，我国生产端表现依然偏强，高 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：核心 CPI 增幅回升 【市场资讯】1）发改委郑栅洁：努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，下半年不断释放内 需潜力，进一步推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合。2）财政部长蓝佛安：把做强国内大循 环摆到更加突出的位置，持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，全力支持稳 就业稳外贸。3）中国 8 月 CPI 同比转降 0.4%、核心 CPI 增幅回升至 0.9%，PPI 同比降幅收 窄至 2.9%。4）美国通胀意外下跌，8 月 PPI 环比-0.1%，四个月来首次转负，同比增速 2.6% 低于预期。PPI 公布后，特朗普：没有通胀，鲍威尔必须立即大幅降息。5）美联储理事库 克或将参与美联储下周决议投票，法官阻止特朗普罢免，美司法部迅速上诉。米兰出任美 联储理事的提名获得参议院委员会投票通过。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国新办就《关于释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发 展的意见》相关政策措施展开解读。我们判断，此举或标志着促进服务消费系列政策的启 动，后续预计将有更多政策逐步落地，需重点跟踪相关举措的实施进展。此类服务消费刺 激政策，将与"以旧换新"等商品消费提振措施形成协同效应，共同支撑社 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Domestic and Overseas Economy**: Domestically, pro - service consumption policies in September and real - estate policies are being promoted, but their effects need further observation. Industrial profit repair takes time. Overseas, the US economy shows "soft landing" features, and employment data strengthens the market's Fed rate - cut expectation. Attention should be paid to non - farm employment and unemployment data. Also, the high prices of long - term bonds in the UK, Germany, and France may lead to speculation about a global credit "crisis" [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The core of the current RMB - US dollar exchange rate is the rhythm control. External environment changes will dominate the short - term spot exchange rate. After a strong employment report followed by a weak QCEW correction notice, market dovish sentiment may increase. The non - farm data is crucial. The RMB - US dollar spot exchange rate is likely to gradually repair to a reasonable equilibrium, with attention on market sentiment around 7.13 [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to adjust in the short term, with limited downside space [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market lacks upward momentum, and the 10 - year Treasury yield has resistance around 1.75%. The market may enter a short - term shock. It is not advisable to chase high, and previous long positions should stop profit [7]. - **Container Shipping**: The short - term weak and volatile pattern continues. There are uncertainties from US tariffs and mainstream shipping companies' Golden Week blank - sailing plans. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the Fed rate - cut expectation [12]. - Aluminum: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. It is recommended to build positions in batches on dips. Alumina is in a weak and volatile state, and it is recommended to sell call options. Cast aluminum alloy is also volatile and strong [14]. - Lead: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options or double - selling can be considered [16]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are affected by the macro environment and are expected to be in a bottom - strong and volatile state in the short term. Trading strategies such as selling the outer market and buying the inner market or selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Affected by the non - ferrous market, they are expected to be in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed rate - cut expectation and the US dollar trend [21]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to be slightly strong due to tight supply, with a target of 276,000 yuan per ton [23]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a shock - adjustment stage. It is recommended to observe the spot - futures price difference and downstream actual receiving situations [24]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has limited downward space and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Polysilicon is in a wide - range shock state, and caution is needed in operation [26][27]. - **Commodities - Black Metals**: - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel market is in a weak fundamental state, with prices facing upward pressure. However, there are expectations for peak - season demand, and the market may be in a short - term shock - adjustment state. Attention should be paid to actual peak - season demand and macro policies [29]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices are currently strong but the rise may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to short - selling hedging opportunities [31]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the lifting of the military - parade production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. There may be room for the coke price to fall in the short term. Coking coal has a loose supply - demand structure, but short - term over - supply is not serious. Attention should be paid to pre - National - Day replenishment and peak - season demand verification [33]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is loose, and they are in a bottom - shock state. It is recommended to go long on the spread between the two when the spread is - 400 for the 01 contract [34][36]. - **Commodities - Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude Oil: The uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase is high, which will affect oil prices next week. Geopolitical risks are short - term interference factors. The oil market may face downward risks after the market sentiment subsides [38]. - LPG: LPG is expected to maintain a volatile state, affected by overseas factors, with controllable supply and uncertain demand [40]. - PTA - PX: The PX - TA market is mainly affected by structural contradictions, with a long - term trend of concentrated profits towards the PX end. It is recommended to shrink the PTA01 processing fee when it is above 350 [43]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4,250 - 4,500, mainly following cost and commodity sentiment. It is recommended to build long positions on dips or sell the 4,250 put option for the 10 - contract [47]. - Methanol: The main contradiction of methanol lies in port pressure and high Iranian shipments. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options and pay attention to Iranian shipments and port pick - up [48]. - PP: The supply of PP is increasing, and the demand is uncertain. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high growth [51]. - PE: PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the driving force from demand is not strong. It is expected to be in a volatile state [53]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The short - term unilateral driving force of pure benzene and styrene is weak. Pure benzene is expected to be weak and volatile, and for styrene, it is not recommended to short - sell unilaterally. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider buying at a low price [55][56]. - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil is dragged down by OPEC production increase expectations, and the downward driving force remains [57]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by OPEC production increase news. Its valuation is low, and it is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [59]. - Asphalt: Asphalt's short - term performance is mainly affected by cost. In the medium - to - long - term, demand may improve with the arrival of the construction season, but there are still rainfall disturbances [61]. - Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with a slow upward - moving center of gravity. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and hold positive spreads for RU9 - 1 [65]. - Urea: Urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1,650 - 1,850. Attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [66][67]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with stable demand and high upstream and mid - stream inventories [68]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: US ISM service PMI expands at the fastest pace in half a year, but employment is weak, and prices remain high. The trade deficit widens, and the Fed rate - cut expectation is strengthened [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB - US dollar exchange rate rises. External environment changes will dominate the short - term spot exchange rate. Attention should be paid to non - farm data [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index falls with increased volume, and it is expected to adjust in the short term with limited downside space [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market lacks upward momentum, and the 10 - year Treasury yield has resistance around 1.75%. The market may enter a short - term shock [7]. Container Shipping - The short - term weak and volatile pattern continues. There are uncertainties from US tariffs and shipping companies' blank - sailing plans [8][10]. Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price falls slightly but may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the Fed rate - cut expectation [11][12]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum is volatile and strong in the short term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is weak and volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is also volatile and strong [13][14]. - **Lead**: Lead prices fluctuate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are affected by the macro environment and are in a bottom - strong and volatile state in the short term [18][19]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the non - ferrous market, they are in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the Fed rate - cut expectation and the US dollar trend [19][21]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are slightly strong due to tight supply, with a target of 276,000 yuan per ton [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a shock - adjustment stage. Observe the spot - futures price difference and downstream actual receiving situations [23][24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downward space and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Polysilicon is in a wide - range shock state [25][27]. Commodities - Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel mills resume production after the military parade. The market is in a weak fundamental state, with prices facing upward pressure but also supported by peak - season demand expectations [28][29]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are strong, but the rise may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to short - selling hedging opportunities [30][31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the lifting of production restrictions, the coke supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. Coking coal has a loose supply - demand structure [31][33]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is loose, and they are in a bottom - shock state [34]. Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production increase expectations and US crude oil inventory accumulation lead to a decline in oil prices. The uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase affects future prices [37][38]. - **LPG**: LPG is affected by overseas factors, with controllable supply and uncertain demand, and is expected to maintain a volatile state [39][40]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - TA market is affected by structural contradictions, with a long - term trend of concentrated profits towards the PX end [41][43]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol oscillates between 4,250 - 4,500, mainly following cost and commodity sentiment [44][47]. - **Methanol**: The main contradiction of methanol lies in port pressure and high Iranian shipments [48]. - **PP**: The supply of PP is increasing, and the demand is uncertain, depending on downstream demand growth [50][51]. - **PE**: PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand driving force is not strong [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term unilateral driving force of pure benzene and styrene is weak [54][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is dragged down by OPEC production increase expectations [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by OPEC production increase news, with low valuation [59]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt's short - term performance is mainly affected by cost, and demand may improve in the medium - to - long - term [60][61]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with a slow upward - moving center of gravity [62][65]. - **Urea**: Urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [66][67]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [68].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: Supportive policies are gradually taking effect. Policies to boost service consumption in September are in focus, and real - estate policies are advancing. However, the impact on the overall market may be limited. The improvement in economic sentiment in July was marginal, and industrial profit repair will take time [2]. - **Overseas Economy**: The US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, indicating a "soft landing." The low JOLTS job openings in July have increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to employment and inflation data this week. The long - term government bond yields in the UK, Germany, and France have reached new highs, and the potential "credit crisis" in the global market should be monitored [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The key issue of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is the rhythm control. The spot exchange rate is likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium level, and it is less likely to return to the "6 era" in the short term [4]. - **Stock Index**: The external pressure on the A - share market has weakened. With the support of domestic policies and loose liquidity, the downside space of the stock index is expected to be limited [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market's bottom may be further consolidated, but caution is needed regarding the upward space [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term prices are strong, and investors can maintain a strategy of buying on dips [12]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the expectation of interest - rate cuts in the US [14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term but face resistance above. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and casting aluminum alloy prices may be supported [16][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom in the short term, and an internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy can be considered [20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices have corrected recently. The medium - term trend depends on demand recovery, and the impact of Indonesia's riots is limited [21][22]. - **Tin**: Tin prices may rise slightly in the short term due to tight supply [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak - oscillating phase, and the key is to observe the downstream's actual purchasing demand [24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and polysilicon is in a wide - range oscillating pattern [27]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with sufficient support at the bottom [28]. - **Black Metals**: The fundamentals of steel products remain weak, and the price trend is bearish. Iron ore prices are supported after the resumption of steel mills, and the coke and coking coal markets are looking for support downward [32][33][34]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are under pressure due to the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production. The LPG market is affected by overseas factors, and the PTA - PX market is weakening with the overall commodity sentiment and oil prices. Other energy - chemical products also show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [38][40][42][44] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US JOLTS job openings data is weak, and the Fed's officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The global bond market is experiencing a sell - off, and the eurozone's PMI has been slightly revised down [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed higher in the previous trading day. The US job openings in July dropped to a 10 - month low, increasing the expectation of interest - rate cuts [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index declined with shrinking volume yesterday. The weak JOLTS data in the US has strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, reducing the external pressure on the A - share market [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market closed higher yesterday. The decline in the stock market has led to an increase in the bond market's gains at the end of the session [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) declined with the drop in the spot price. It is expected to continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [7][8]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The precious metals market continued to rise on Wednesday. The low JOLTS data in the US has increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The market is focusing on economic data and events this week. The medium - to long - term trend may be bullish [9][10][11][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose and then fell on Wednesday, mainly due to the US economic situation. It may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the expectation of interest - rate cuts [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The price may fluctuate strongly in the short term but face resistance above. The supply and demand situation is affected by production capacity and seasonal factors [16]. - **Alumina**: The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the price is under pressure. The impact of environmental protection restrictions is short - term [17]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the cancellation of tax - return policies [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price opened low and lacked upward momentum. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is stable. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [19][20]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel corrected on the day. The market is affected by factors such as the Indonesian benchmark price and the EU's stainless - steel tariff policy [20][21][22]. - **Tin**: The tin price has been rising recently due to tight supply. The production has decreased due to maintenance and reduced imports of tin concentrates [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate declined on Wednesday. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, and the market is in a weak - oscillating phase [24]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price is oscillating, and the polysilicon futures price is in a wide - range oscillating pattern. Their prices are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and seasonal factors [25][26][27]. - **Lead**: The lead price opened low and closed high, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is weak, and the demand is in a "not - prosperous in the peak season" situation [28]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have reached new lows recently. The supply exceeds the demand, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. The market is bearish [30][31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price has rebounded, and the term structure is in a positive - spread arbitrage. The resumption of steel mills after the parade has supported the price, but the upside space is limited [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke prices are looking for support downward. The supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow, and the coking coal inventory structure has deteriorated [34]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply of silicon iron and silicon manganese is loose, and the prices are oscillating at the bottom. The profit has declined, and there is a possibility of production reduction [36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped significantly due to the possible production increase by OPEC+. The uncertainty of OPEC+'s production decision will be an important factor affecting the price next week [38][39][40]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuates with the crude oil price. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand has little change. The market is affected by overseas factors [42]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices of PX and PTA have weakened with the overall commodity sentiment and the decline in the crude oil price. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the profit is under pressure [44][45][46]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at a low level. The supply and demand are in a state of change, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly. The bottle - chip demand is not good [48][49]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is mainly affected by the high - volume shipments from Iran and the port inventory pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and short put options [51][52]. - **PP**: The supply of polypropylene is increasing, and the demand is uncertain. The future trend depends on whether the downstream demand can maintain a high growth rate [54][55]. - **PE**: The polyethylene market is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate [56][57][58]. - **PVC**: The PVC price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [59][60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have stopped falling. The supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, and the supply of styrene will change in different periods. Short - term short - selling is not recommended [61][62][64]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is waiting for the guidance of the OPEC meeting. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable. The price is under pressure from the spot market [65]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt supply is stable, but the demand is affected by rainfall and capital shortage. It is mainly following the cost fluctuation in the short term [67][68]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The rubber market is in a multi - empty stalemate. The price is affected by factors such as the crude oil price, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic data. It is expected to oscillate widely [69][70][71]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is in a weak supply - demand situation. The market is waiting for the Indian tender news. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [72][73]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The soda ash inventory has decreased slightly. The market situation is relatively weak [74].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock market is in a phased shock interval with high trading volume, leading to significant shock amplitude. Short - term trading is influenced by the STAR 50 index, and funds are the main disturbing factor. Traders prefer blue - chip stocks. It's advisable to hold positions and take risk - avoidance measures before a clear consensus is formed [4]. - The bond market may need to repeatedly test the bottom due to the influence of the stock - bond seesaw, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic as stock market risks increase after reaching a high level [4]. - For the shipping index (European line) futures, the possibility of a shock - and - decline trend is relatively large, and attention should be paid to the risk of a low - level rebound of some contracts [6]. - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and may maintain a strong state in the short - term. It's recommended to pay attention to the impact of the US PCE data on Friday night [10]. - Copper prices are expected to be mainly volatile, with both upward and downward pressures [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be shock - strong, alumina shock - weak, and cast aluminum alloy shock - strong [15]. - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom in the short - term [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a situation of long - short game, waiting for clear signals [18]. - Tin is expected to be slightly strong [20]. - Carbonate lithium is in a state of correcting over - valuation and oscillating adjustment. In the short - term, there may be a rebound opportunity, and in the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to short at high prices [22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillating adjustment phase, and it's recommended to wait and see or trade based on an oscillating strategy [24]. - Lead is expected to be in a narrow - range shock [25]. - For steel products, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the short - term market may be bearish [26]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space in the short - term [27]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern in the short - term [28]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended to go long lightly at the 60 - day moving average [29]. - For crude oil, it's recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [32]. - LPG is expected to be weak and shock, with the spot price rising to catch up [33]. - PTA - PX is following the decline of commodity sentiment, and it's recommended to short the processing fee and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [36]. - MEG - bottle chips are following the decline of commodity sentiment but showing resistance to decline. It's recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and conduct covered call option operations in the medium - to - long - term [37]. - PP is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern [39]. - PE is recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation [41]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in an oscillating decline, and for styrene, short - sellers should pay attention to stop - profit [43]. - Fuel oil is facing a situation where the downward driving force remains unsolved [44]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be long - allocated as its valuation is low and the driving force is upward [45]. - Asphalt is in an oscillating consolidation phase, mainly following cost fluctuations [46]. - Rubber is expected to be in an interval shock, and it's recommended to expand the spread between light and dark rubber at low levels [49]. - Urea is in a pattern of having both support and suppression, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 and 1850 [50]. - For soda ash, the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [52]. - For glass, the market is in a weak balance state, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [53]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Macro - Domestic policies focus on promoting service consumption, and overseas markets show economic and employment resilience in the US. Attention should be paid to the upcoming US non - farm payroll report and price index [1]. - The Fed's policy shows marginal loosening signs, and the US dollar index is in a shock - consolidation pattern. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is expected to be more likely to depreciate [2]. Stock Index - The stock market is in a phased shock interval with high trading volume and significant shock amplitude. Short - term trading is affected by the STAR 50 index, and funds are the main disturbing factor [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw and may need to repeatedly test the bottom, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic [4]. Shipping Index - The shipping index (European line) futures are affected by the reduction of spot cabin quotes and geopolitical risks, and the possibility of a shock - and - decline trend is relatively large [6]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the US PCE data on Friday night. It's recommended to go long on dips [8][10]. Copper - Copper prices are expected to be mainly volatile, with both upward and downward pressures due to factors such as the US dollar index and demand [13]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be shock - strong, alumina shock - weak, and cast aluminum alloy shock - strong, each with different influencing factors such as supply, demand, and cost [14][15]. Zinc - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom in the short - term, with support from inventory and potential demand improvement [16][18]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel are in a long - short game situation, and attention should be paid to factors such as nickel ore supply, nickel iron price, and stainless steel demand [18][19]. Tin - Tin is expected to be slightly strong, supported by supply - side tightness and inventory decline [20]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium is in a state of correcting over - valuation and oscillating adjustment. In the short - term, there may be a rebound opportunity, and in the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to short at high prices [21][22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillating adjustment phase, and it's recommended to wait and see or trade based on an oscillating strategy [24]. Lead - Lead is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, with limited upward space and sufficient downward support [25]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The supply and demand of five major steel products both increase, but the inventory accumulates, and the short - term market may be bearish [26]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space in the short - term due to support from coking coal and macro - sentiment [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policy [28]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are facing supply pressure, and it's recommended to go long lightly at the 60 - day moving average [29]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The international crude oil market is in a multi - empty game, and it's recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [30][32]. LPG - LPG is expected to be weak and shock, with the spot price rising to catch up, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [32][33]. PTA - PX - PTA - PX is following the decline of commodity sentiment, and it's recommended to short the processing fee and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [34][36]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG - bottle chips are following the decline of commodity sentiment but showing resistance to decline. It's recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and conduct covered call option operations in the medium - to - long - term [37]. PP - PP is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern, affected by supply and demand factors [37][39]. PE - PE is recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation [40][41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene are in an oscillating decline, and for styrene, short - sellers should pay attention to stop - profit [41][43]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is facing a situation where the downward driving force remains unsolved, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [44]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be long - allocated as its valuation is low and the driving force is upward [45]. Asphalt - Asphalt is in an oscillating consolidation phase, mainly following cost fluctuations, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [46]. Rubber and 20 - Rubber - Rubber is expected to be in an interval shock, and it's recommended to expand the spread between light and dark rubber at low levels, affected by supply, demand, and weather factors [48][49]. Urea - Urea is in a pattern of having both support and suppression, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 and 1850 [50]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and glass is in a weak balance state, both affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [52][53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: In July, China's export performance was strong, with non-US countries supporting exports and electromechanical products showing competitive advantages. However, future export growth is expected to decline gradually, and the decision - makers' policies are expected to improve the price index [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar is weak, and non - US currencies are generally strong. The short - term exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB is expected to be supported in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a likely anchor at 7.20 [3]. - **Stock Index**: The domestic economic data did not exceed market expectations, and the short - term market is expected to continue the trend of shrinking volume and oscillation. Wait for the release of domestic financial data and US inflation data [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The liquidity has improved, and the primary market situation is better than expected. It is recommended to hold long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The SCFI European line continues to decline. The futures price is expected to be in a volatile or slightly declining trend in the short - to - medium term [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, alumina is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate [13][14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium resources is expected to tighten, and investors need to be cautious about holding positions [17]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [21]. - **Black Metals**: Steel products are expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state in the short term, and iron ore is in a narrow - range oscillation. Coal and coke are not pessimistic in the medium - to - long term, and ferroalloys are recommended to be lightly bought on dips [22][24][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is at risk of decline, LPG remains in a loose situation, PTA - PX is recommended to expand the processing fee, ethylene glycol is recommended to be bought on dips, methanol 09 is weak, PP and PE are in an oscillatory state, PVC is to be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene have weak short - term unilateral drives, fuel oil is weak, low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, asphalt is in a weak oscillation, urea is in a weak oscillation, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a game between reality and expectation [30][32][37][40][42][43][46][48][50] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - **Domestic**: In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed. The export was strong, and the decision - makers introduced a series of livelihood policies [1][2]. - **Overseas**: The US non - farm payrolls data was revised downwards, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased. There were various international events such as potential US - Russia cease - fire agreements and tariff policies [1] RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated. The US dollar index was weak, and non - US currencies were strong [2][3] - **Influencing Factors**: The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the US domestic economic situation, China's export performance, and the central bank's guidance [3][4] Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index oscillated, and the trading volume decreased. The futures index volume decreased, and the bullish sentiment declined [5] - **Influencing Factors**: Domestic economic data, policy support, and the upcoming release of financial and inflation data [5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures opened high and closed low, then rebounded. The liquidity improved, and the primary market situation was better than expected [5][6] - **Influencing Factors**: Liquidity improvement, the issuance of local bonds, and the impact of VAT adjustment [6] Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The container shipping index (European line) futures oscillated, and the SCFI European line continued to decline [7][8] - **Influencing Factors**: Shipping company performance, geopolitical risks, and shipping company price adjustments [8] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated, affected by tariff policies and Fed news. Fund positions and inventory changed [9][10][11] - **Influencing Factors**: US tariff policies, Fed interest rate cut expectations, and China's gold reserve increase [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: The price oscillated, affected by inventory and the approaching peak season [13] - **Alumina**: The supply was excessive, the price was under pressure, and the cost was the support [14] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply and demand were good, and the price followed the aluminum price [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the fundamentals provided some support [16] - **Influencing Factors**: Supply and demand of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel, and macro - level factors such as tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose, and the inventory increased [16][17] - **Influencing Factors**: Mine - end news, production and demand of the lithium battery industry chain, and the suspension of mining operations [16][17] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the production and demand of the industry changed [17][18][19] - **Influencing Factors**: Production capacity changes, market demand, and the adjustment of registered brands [18][19][20] Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were affected by production restrictions and market demand [22] - **Iron Ore**: The price oscillated in a narrow range, and the supply and demand were affected by coal prices and steel demand [22][23][24] - **Coal and Coke**: The prices oscillated strongly, and the supply and demand were affected by production inspections, imports, and downstream demand [24][25] - **Ferroalloys**: The prices fluctuated with coal prices, and the supply and demand were affected by steel production and raw material supply [26][27][28] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price declined, and the supply and demand were affected by seasonal factors and geopolitical events [28][29][30] - **LPG**: The price was under pressure, and the supply was loose while the demand was slightly improved [31][32] - **PTA - PX**: The price followed the cost, and there was a supply - demand gap in August [32][33] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a weak balance [36] - **Methanol**: The 09 contract was weak, and the port inventory increased [37][38] - **PP and PE**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a state of change [39][40][42] - **PVC**: The price was high - valued and high - inventory, and it was recommended to be short - allocated [43] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term unilateral drive was weak, and the supply and demand situation was different [43][44][46] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The prices were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [46] - **Asphalt**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by weather and funds [47][48] - **Urea**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by export and agricultural demand [49][50] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices were in a game between reality and expectation, and the supply and demand were different [50][51][53]