周度报告——风险管理 期货技术分析周报：2026 年第 9 周 报告日期： 2026 年 3 月 1 日 ★商品期货 根据周度期货技术指标信号分析，贵金属板块黄金看跌，白 银震荡；有色板块锌、镍、工业硅、铝合金看涨，多晶硅看 跌，其余震荡；黑色及航运板块锰硅、硅铁、线材看涨，欧 线集运震荡；能源板块整体看涨；化工板块丙烯、玻璃、纯 碱看涨，纸浆、短纤看跌，其余震荡；农产品板块豆油、白 糖、原木、豆粕、油菜籽、菜籽油、玉米、鸡蛋看涨，其余 震荡。具体品种方面，沪铜主力回踩 MA10 获支撑，价格重 心持稳，MACD 金叉延续但成交量未放量，预计短期易涨难 跌，关注 10 万至 10.3 万元/吨逢低建仓机会，需严控仓位。 螺纹钢主力日线修复下跌压力，但均线未转多头，预期下周 震荡修复，下方支撑 3000 至 3040 元/吨。PTA 主力周线受 MA250 压制，日线延续 5000 至 5400 元/吨区间震荡，波动率 下降，短期缺乏趋势信号。玉米主力周线站稳 MA120，中期 看涨但上涨动能减弱，日线仍有上行空间但冲高回落风险加 大，上方阻力 2380 至 2420 元/吨，支撑 2220 至 2250 元/ ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关税风波再起 【市场资讯】1）美联储理事沃勒：多位 CEO 称 AI 将致大量裁员，3 月利率决议取决于 2 月就业数据。2）特朗普关税—①欧洲议会暂停批准欧美贸易协议。②特朗普警告不遵守与 美国贸易协定的国家将面临更高关税。③美众议院议长约翰逊谈关税退税：无先例可循， 将由白宫定夺。④英首相发言人：一切措施都在考虑之中。3）伊朗问题—①特朗普称倾向 于与伊朗达成协议，而非战争。②美特使威特科夫和库什纳将参加新一轮美伊谈判。③美 媒称美军参联会主席警告对伊动武风险极高，易陷长期冲突。4）飞猪发布数据显示，春节 假期国内游订单量再创新高，其中门票订单量同比去年增长超 80%，酒店间夜量同比增长 75%。更长假期还带来节中出游需求的进一步释放，大年初二至初五之间出行的订单量同 比增长约三成。 【南华观点】2026 年春节假期期间，海外金融市场主要围绕 AI 产业变局、地缘政治博弈 及关税政策重构三大主线展开博弈。具体来看：一为 AI 产业主线。AI 产业正经历深度生态 变革，产业深化过程中，行业层级分化持续加剧，核心是盈利逻辑的重新定位；二是地缘 政治主线。地缘政治方面，大国关系是影响市场波动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest price data in January 2026 in China shows a mild recovery at a low level with structural differentiation, while the non - farm data in the US in January greatly exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Domestic price repair depends on the optimization of "new supply" and the unblocking of the transmission chain in the middle and lower reaches. The economic opportunities from the visit and domestic growth - stabilizing policies may lead to a valuation repair of pro - cyclical sectors [2]. - In the short term, for the RMB exchange rate, pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline, and its linkage with the US dollar index may increase [3]. - For the stock index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - For the bond market, it is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - For the container shipping European line, the market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. - For new energy products, the spot market for lithium carbonate is trading lightly, and it is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [15][17]. - For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy may be in a shock adjustment. Copper may be weak in its rebound, zinc may be in a shock, nickel - stainless steel may be affected by quota disturbances, tin may be adjusted in a wide - range shock, and lead may fluctuate weakly [20][26][28]. - For oilseeds and fats, for oilseeds, there are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities. For fats, the domestic market has limited driving forces and is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [31][33]. - For energy and oil and gas, for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, due to geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday. For asphalt, its price may follow the cost - end crude oil, and there may be a decline after the holiday [35][37][39]. - For precious metals, for platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation still exists, and it is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. For gold and silver, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [43][45]. - For chemical products, for pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to conduct range trading. For pure benzene - styrene, pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. For LPG, pay attention to geopolitical uncertainties. For PTA - PX, it is advisable to buy at low prices. For MEG - bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. For methanol, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For plastics and PP, the short - term driving force is limited, and it is expected to be in a shock before the holiday. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday, and it is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For urea, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For glass and soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. For propylene, pay attention to cost and risk [51][54][57][62][65][67][69][80][82][83][86]. - For black products, for rebar and hot - rolled coils, the price may be in a weak shock. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are in a bottom - shock state [88][91][94][95]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, for live pigs, it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract. For cotton, it is expected to be in a shock in the short term. For sugar, the upward space is limited. For eggs, the main contract is expected to decline in a shock. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For apples, the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited. For red dates, the short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure. For logs, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100][103][104][111][113][114][116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's CPI and PPI data in January 2026 showed a mild recovery at a low level. The US non - farm data in January was strong, affecting the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Indonesia plans to cut the output of the world's largest nickel mine by 70%, and the US Congressional Budget Office expects the 2026 deficit to be $1.9 trillion [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US non - farm report in January was strong, delaying the market's expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut. The RMB exchange rate was under the central bank's regulation and maintained a mild appreciation. Pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline [3]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market is trading lightly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. It is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday [15]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The market is in a wide - range shock. Due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [16][17]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The non - farm data in the US was better than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts. The fundamentals of aluminum have not changed much, and it may be in a shock adjustment. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, and cast aluminum alloy may follow aluminum [20]. - **Copper**: The probability of a March interest rate cut has decreased, and the copper price's rebound is weak. It is recommended to hold a light position or wait and see before the holiday [20][23]. - **Zinc**: It follows the sector's adjustment, and the non - farm data suppresses the price. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is affected by quota disturbances. The market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of capital withdrawal before the holiday [27][28]. - **Tin**: Its price is mainly driven by the macro situation and is expected to be in a wide - range shock adjustment [29][30]. - **Lead**: It follows the sector's fluctuation and is expected to be in a weak shock [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal may rebound in the short - term but may be restricted by new supplies in the long - term. There are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [31]. - **Fats**: The domestic market has limited driving forces. The palm oil market needs to observe the de - stocking process, the soybean oil has support from policies, and the rapeseed oil supply is loose. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [32][33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: It opened high and went high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is being repaired, and the demand is weak in some areas. The logic is mainly related to geopolitics, and it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [35]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cost has increased, and it opened high and went high. The supply is relatively abundant in the short - term, the demand is stable, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [36][37]. - **Asphalt**: Its price increase is weak. The demand has reached the freezing point before the holiday, and it may follow the cost - end crude oil. There may be a decline after the holiday [38][39]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term bull market foundation still exists. It is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. Pay attention to the impact of Fed officials' speeches and relevant events [43]. - **Gold and Silver**: The long - term upward trend remains, but the short - term operation is difficult. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [45]. Chemical Products - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp market is relatively neutral, and the offset paper futures may be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to conduct range trading [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand is flat. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decrease during the Spring Festival [54][55]. - **LPG**: There are still uncertainties in geopolitics. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to risk management before the holiday [56][57]. - **PTA - PX**: It benefits from the good supply - demand structure of PX. The first quarter may see inventory accumulation, and the second quarter may be in short supply. It is advisable to buy at low prices [59][62]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand balance has improved. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [63][65]. - **Methanol**: It follows geopolitics and non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to be empty before the holiday [66][67]. - **Plastics and PP**: The short - term driving force is limited. PE has a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and PP has limited supply pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [68][69]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [72][80]. - **Urea**: It is in a stage of over - supply due to new capacity release. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation, but it is recommended to exit long positions and be empty before the holiday [81][82]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the demand is expected to weaken, and it is in a weak shock. For glass, there may be concentrated cold repairs before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [83][84]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals still have support, but the cost has uncertainties. Pay attention to cost, supply - demand, and risk [85][86]. Black Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The price may be in a weak shock. The supply is relatively strong compared to the demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may test the lower limit of the shock range [88][89]. - **Iron Ore**: The overall supply - demand is weak, and the iron water is expected to rise. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday [90][91]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are many disturbances in the overseas market, and the domestic driving force is insufficient. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday [92][94]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are in a bottom - shock state. The cost provides support, but the downstream inventory accumulation and high inventory of ferromanganese put pressure on the price [95]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The futures price has rebounded, and it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract [98][99]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the external - internal cotton price difference restricts the upward space [99][100]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic sugar's upward space is limited [101][103]. - **Eggs**: The main contract is expected to decline in a shock. The pre - holiday demand has weakened, and the supply is sufficient [104]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [104][111]. - **Apples**: The pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited [112][113]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [114]. - **Logs**: The liquidity is insufficient, and the industry is optimistic about the post - holiday market. It is recommended to wait and see [115][116].

行业 金融期货周报 日期 2026 年 2 月 6 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ |  股指 - 3 | - | | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、市场回顾 - 3 | - | | | 二、成交持仓分析 - 5 | - | | | 三、基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - 5 | - | | | 四、行业板块概况 - 8 | - | | | 五、估值比较 - 9 | - | | |  国债 - 10 | - | | | 一、本周市场回顾 - 10 | - | | | 二、市场分析 - 19 | - | | | 三、下周公开市场到期 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomics - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England maintained their benchmark interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its three key interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, while the BoE's decision, with four out of nine policymakers voting for a 25 - basis - point cut, signaled a dovish stance [1]. - The UK's GDP growth forecast was downgraded to 0.9%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.3%, indicating weak domestic demand. The visit of UK's Starmer to China is seen as a practical choice to break through growth bottlenecks [2]. - The US 12 - month JOLTS job openings reached a new low since September 2020, and the US Challenger job cuts in January hit a record high for the same period since 2009, surging 205% month - on - month [4][5]. Group 2: Exchange Rates - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate showed a trend of first depreciation and then appreciation. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9408 at 16:30, down 32 basis points, and the night - session closed at 6.9363. The central parity rate was set at 6.9570, down 37 basis points [3]. - Due to weak US employment data and AI - related panic, the market's risk - aversion demand increased, supporting the US dollar index. The RMB's appreciation momentum may decline after the holiday as seasonal settlement demand weakens [3]. - Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures - The stock index fell collectively, with the large - cap index relatively more resilient. The trading volume in the two markets dropped to around 2.1 trillion yuan. The short - term stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with the large - cap index outperforming, but the adjustment range is limited [4][5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The open - market operation injected cross - festival funds, and the money market was stable. The yield of spot bonds declined across the board. The bond market may gain upward momentum as the A - share market is likely to adjust [5][6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (European Routes) - The main contract EC2604 of container shipping on European routes fluctuated widely. The market's core contradiction lies in the game between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. Short - term, it will maintain a volatile pattern with limited upside [6][7][8]. - It is recommended to shift long positions on the medium - term during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high levels. Short - term, consider shorting lightly at high levels [6][8]. Group 6: New Energy (Carbonate Lithium and Industrial Silicon) - Carbonate lithium futures prices fell, with a daily decline of 9.81%. The trading volume increased by 70.48%, and the open interest decreased by 30,100 lots. It is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival to avoid risks [9]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. They are expected to trade in a narrow range, with industrial silicon between 8300 - 9100 and polysilicon between 48000 - 52000 [10][11][13]. Group 7: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fell. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to replenish inventory when prices decline. The copper market is affected by factors such as inventory changes and holiday - related demand [15][16][20]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate, with support at 23000 - 23500. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a long - term weakening trend. Cast aluminum alloy prices are also expected to oscillate [21][22][23]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the future. Nickel - stainless steel prices are affected by the broader market and are expected to be weak and volatile. Tin prices are likely to follow the sector in wide - range adjustments [23][24][26]. - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lacking upward drivers before the Spring Festival [26][27]. Group 8: Oils and Fats, and Feeds - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is strong. Domestic soybean meal is expected to rebound in the short - term, and rapeseed meal is difficult to have an independent upward trend. It is recommended to participate in long positions in spreads and single - side trades lightly [28]. - For oils, the short - term is expected to be in a consolidation phase. The overall situation in the first quarter is still supported, and short - selling is not recommended [29]. Group 9: Energy and Oil & Gas - Fuel oil is in a weak operation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly in the bunkering market. The long - term high - sulfur cracking trend is downward [31]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable. The inventory decline provides a slight boost [31][32]. - Asphalt prices are struggling to rise. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile state, with limited upside and downside [32][33][34]. Group 10: Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices in NYMEX retreated significantly. The short - term "tightening trade" does not change the long - term "loosening trend." Attention should be paid to position control [34][35][36]. - Gold and silver prices fell under pressure. In the short - term, they are weak and may continue to decline. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38]. Group 11: Chemicals - Pulp and offset paper futures prices rebounded from lows. It is recommended to hold short positions in pulp futures and consider short - term long positions in offset paper futures [39][40]. - LPG prices are affected by the US - Iran negotiation. Attention should be paid to the negotiation results [40][41][42]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be bought on dips. The processing fee of PTA is expected to narrow [43][44][45]. - MEG - bottle chips are weakly volatile. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound state [45][46]. - Methanol is recommended to be observed on the long - side. 3 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads can be shorted, and the MTO spread can be widened [46][47][48]. - Plastics and PP are weakly volatile. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand recovery [48][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical and demand factors [49][50][52]. - Rubber prices are supported at the bottom. It is recommended to be lightly - positioned before the long holiday and consider option strategies [53][57][81]. - Urea prices are expected to correct in the short - term. It is recommended to exit long positions [57][58]. - Glass and soda ash are weakly volatile. Soda ash is in an oscillating state, and glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [58][59][60]. - Propylene is affected by cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to risks [60][61]. Group 12: Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a state of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weakly volatile. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 3050 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils 2605 is between 3200 - 3350 [62]. - Iron ore is in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the Spring Festival [63][64]. - Coking coal and coke prices fell. The short - term rebound has limited sustainability [64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. The price range of ferrosilicon 05 is between 5400 - 5900, and that of ferromanganese 05 is between 5700 - 6100 [65][66][67]. Group 13: Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hog prices are in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to observe before clear demand signals and consider spread strategies [69]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong but are restricted by the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips [70][71][72]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited upward space, with pressure at the 60 - day moving average [72][73]. - Egg prices fell below the previous low. It is recommended to sell call options on JD2603 - C - 3100 [74]. - Apple prices are likely to be strong. The consumption peak is coming to an end, but the delivery contradiction provides support [81][82][83]. - Red date prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short - term and face pressure in the long - term [84][85]. - Log prices may rise. It is recommended to try long positions on dips and sell put options [86][87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In February, the global financial market enters a multi - variable intertwined period with a triple game among global order fission, Fed policy disputes, and China's economic resilience. The market pricing logic shifts from single - liquidity driven to a two - dimensional one of policy fit and global pattern adaptability [2] - The fission of the global order intensifies the implementation difficulty of the "rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction" policy if Jovash comes to power. China's economy becomes a global anchor of certainty, and the industrial main line shows characteristics of differentiation and aggregation [2] - The RMB exchange rate is affected by the mixed US economic data. The US dollar index lacks upward momentum, and the RMB exchange rate may have reduced endogenous appreciation power and enhanced linkage with the US dollar index [3] - Stock index is expected to adjust before the Spring Festival and may strengthen again after the festival. Treasury bonds will maintain a short - term shock [5][7] - The freight rate of the container shipping European line will continue to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside and downside space [9][11] - The volatility of the lithium carbonate futures market is at a historical high, and it is recommended to consider selling volatility strategies and taking a long position on dips in the medium - to - long term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will maintain a shock pattern [12] - Copper prices will be mainly in shock before the festival, with a low risk - return ratio. Aluminum prices are expected to rise in the long - term and adjust in the short - term. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term and have short - term disturbances. Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, tin, and lead will maintain a shock pattern [15][17] - The external soybean market will be strong in the short - term, and the internal soybean meal market will follow the cost rebound in the short - term. Vegetable oils will enter a shock period [23][26] - Fuel oil will run weakly, low - sulfur fuel oil will have a low cracking spread, and asphalt will be in a sideways consolidation [28][30] - Platinum and palladium are expected to have a bull market in the medium - to - long term, and gold and silver will continue to rise in the medium - to - long term with short - term shock adjustments [33][35] - Pulp and offset paper will be in a range - bound shock. LPG will be affected by geopolitics in the short - term. PX - PTA is recommended to go long on dips, and PTA's high processing fees are expected to be difficult to maintain. MEG - bottle chips will lack upward drivers. Polyolefins will be in a shock consolidation. Pure benzene - styrene will be affected by export rumors. Rubber will show a differentiated trend [39][40][41][42][43][44][46][48][51] - Urea prices are expected to decline in the medium - to - long term, and it is recommended to exit long positions. Glass and soda ash will continue to shock [56][57][58][60] - Propylene's fundamentals are relatively stable, and its cost fluctuates greatly. Rebar and hot - rolled coils will be in a bottom - range shock. Iron ore is expected to increase production. The rebound of coking coal and coke is not expected to be strong and sustainable. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese will be in a shock pattern with bottom support and upper pressure [60][62] - The price of live pigs may be affected by cold snaps in the short - term. Cotton prices are expected to rise but are constrained by the internal - external price difference. The upward space of domestic sugar prices is limited. Egg prices are expected to decline. Apples may be difficult to fall due to delivery contradictions. Red dates will be in a low - level shock. Logs may have increased price fluctuations [66][67][68][69][73][78][79][80] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US ADP employment data in January was lower than expected. The central bank deployed key work in the credit market in 2026, and the US will release important economic data such as non - farm employment and CPI inflation reports [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US economic data is mixed. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar declined due to the slight strengthening of the US dollar index. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement on rallies, and import enterprises adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy [3][4] - **Stock Index**: Before the Spring Festival, the stock index may adjust due to the tightening of funds and risk - aversion by investors. After the festival, it may strengthen again if the spring rally continues [5][7] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bonds will maintain a short - term shock due to the lack of strong driving factors [7][8] - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market is affected by geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. The freight rate will continue to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside and downside space [9][10][11] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream restocking is coming to an end, and the spot prices of the lithium battery industry chain are weakening. It is recommended to consider selling volatility strategies and taking a long position on dips in the medium - to - long term [12] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The spot market of the industrial silicon and photovoltaic industry chains is generally weak. In the short term, industrial silicon prices will be in a shock pattern, and it is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival for polysilicon [12][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The import window opening will increase post - festival supply. Copper prices will be mainly in shock before the festival, with a low risk - return ratio [15][16] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise in the long - term and adjust in the short - term. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term and have short - term disturbances. Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, tin, and lead will maintain a shock pattern [17][18][19][20][22] Oils and Fats, Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market is supported by the expected increase in Chinese purchases, and the internal soybean meal market will follow the cost rebound in the short - term. The rapeseed meal is affected by import rumors and weak demand [23][24][25] - **Vegetable Oils**: The vegetable oil market will enter a shock period, and it is recommended to pay attention to the MPOB data [26][27] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. The low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient supply and stable demand, with limited upward drivers [28][29] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is in a sideways consolidation. The short - term price will be in shock, with limited upside and downside space [30][31] Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices are affected by multiple factors such as sector linkage and policy uncertainties. They are expected to have a bull market in the medium - to - long term, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [33][34][35] - **Gold & Silver**: The prices are in a short - term shock adjustment and are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to go long on dips [35][36][37][38] Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp and offset paper markets will be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to wait and hold previous short positions [39][40] - **LPG**: The LPG market is affected by geopolitical factors in the short - term. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is weak due to PDH maintenance [40][41] - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA market is affected by supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on dips for PX and short the processing fees of PTA [42][43] - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The MEG market lacks upward drivers and is expected to be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical risks [43][44][46] - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market will be in a shock consolidation. The short - term pattern of PP is slightly stronger than that of PE, and it is recommended to wait and see [46][47][48] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene - styrene market is affected by export rumors. The short - term supply of styrene will increase, and it is recommended to wait and see [48][49][50] - **Rubber**: The rubber market shows a differentiated trend. Natural rubber may be affected by inventory and demand, and synthetic rubber is affected by the price of butadiene. It is recommended to hold light positions [51][54][57] - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long term, and it is recommended to exit long positions [56][57] - **Glass & Soda Ash**: The glass and soda ash markets will continue to shock, with the soda ash supply remaining high in the long - term and the glass in a supply - demand weak pattern [58][59][60] - **Propylene**: The propylene market is affected by cost and supply - demand. The cost fluctuates greatly, and the short - term fundamentals can provide some support [60][61] Building Materials and Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coils**: The rebar and hot - rolled coils will be in a bottom - range shock due to the contradiction between supply and demand. The price is supported by cost and policy [62] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is in a pre - festival off - season. The supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to increase. The price has limited downside space [62] - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The rebound of coking coal and coke is not expected to be strong and sustainable due to factors such as seasonal demand and cost transmission [62][63] - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese will be in a shock pattern with bottom support and upper pressure due to the contradiction between cost support and supply - demand pressure [64][65] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price of live pigs may be affected by cold snaps in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [66][67][68] - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to rise but is constrained by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to go long on dips [68][69] - **Sugar**: The upward space of domestic sugar prices is limited due to weak demand and low international sugar prices [69][70][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to decline due to the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern [73] - **Apples**: The apple market is in the middle - late stage of stocking. The price may be difficult to fall due to delivery contradictions [78][79] - **Red Dates**: The red date market will be in a low - level shock, and the price will face pressure in the long - term [79][80] - **Logs**: The log market may have increased price fluctuations due to the suspension of some delivery warehouses and low inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of global geopolitical games, the strategic value of key mineral resources is continuously highlighted, and the pricing logic of related varieties has shifted from simple supply - demand to "resource security + commodity attribute" driven. The market's expectation of a loose monetary policy in major economies is rising, but the short - term market of strongly financial - attribute varieties is still volatile. China's industrial economy has entered a new stage of bottom - building and recovery, and industrial enterprise profits are expected to turn to moderate growth in 2026 [2]. - The "exchange rate inquiry" by the New York Fed may be an important signal of US - Japan joint intervention. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar due to factors such as seasonal settlement demand and market expectations [4]. - The spring rally in the stock index market is expected to last until February, with small - and medium - cap indexes likely to continue to be strong, while large - cap indexes are relatively weak [8]. - In the bond market, it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [9]. - In the container shipping market, the near - term contracts are under pressure, while the far - term contracts may be driven up by factors such as trade improvement and geopolitical risks [10][12]. - For new energy commodities, lithium carbonate prices may strengthen in the short term, and industrial silicon prices are likely to rise in the short term, while polysilicon is still in the process of destocking [14][15][17]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are affected by market sentiment, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc has strong upward pressure, nickel - stainless steel is in a correction, tin prices are affected by news, and lead is in a narrow - range and weak oscillation [20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29]. - In the oil and fat market, oilseeds follow the rebound, and oils are expected to be strong in the short term, with palm oil being the strongest [30][33]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, fuel oil cracking is strong, low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward momentum, asphalt is affected by geopolitical factors and may correct, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - long term [36][38][40][45]. - In the chemical market, pulp prices may decline, PX - TA may have a phased correction, MEG may fluctuate widely, PP and PE are affected by macro - emotions, pure benzene and styrene market sentiment has declined, rubber is in a shock correction, urea is recommended to hold long positions, and glass and soda ash are in a repeated pattern [51][52][53][56][57][59][60][62][63][65][66][67][71][73][75][76]. - In the steel and iron ore market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a bottom - range oscillation, iron ore price fluctuations are narrowing, coking coal and coke are testing the lower support, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are oscillating weakly with cost support [77][78][79][80][81][83][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, live pigs are falling, cotton is recommended to buy on dips, sugar has limited upward potential, eggs are under pressure to fall, apples may be affected by the shortage of delivery products, dates may be in a low - level oscillation, and logs are recommended to wait and see [86][88][90][91][92][99][100][101][102][103]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Fed Chair nominee may be announced this week. Japan's Prime Minister may resign if the ruling camp fails to win a majority in the House election. China's industrial enterprise profits in 2025 increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in December turned positive [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Concerns about the US government's new shutdown risk. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower in the previous trading day, and the RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The spring rally is expected to last until February, with small - and medium - cap indexes likely to be strong, and large - cap indexes relatively weak [8]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [9]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price and basis may strengthen due to pre - holiday restocking demand [14][15]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon prices are likely to rise in the short term, and polysilicon is in the process of destocking [16][17][18]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is affected by sentiment, and it is not recommended to open new positions above 100,000 yuan [20][22]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina may oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The upper pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is in a correction, and the short - term trend is affected by market sentiment [25][26]. - **Tin**: The price is affected by Indonesian news and a new model, and it is expected to be in a high - level wide - range oscillation [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is in a narrow - range and weak oscillation [29]. Oils and Fats - **Oilseeds**: They follow the rebound, but lack their own driving force [30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to be strong in the short term, with palm oil being the strongest [33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Cracking is strong, but the fundamental situation is still poor [36][37]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has limited upward momentum, and the supply pressure is increasing [38][39]. - **Asphalt**: It is affected by geopolitical factors and may correct, and it is recommended to focus on the winter - storage situation of refineries [40][41][42]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They are expected to rise in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][46]. - **Gold & Silver**: Spot gold is approaching 5,200, and it is recommended to buy on dips [47][49]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices may decline, and offset paper may be affected by cost and supply factors [51][52]. - **PTA - PX**: They may have a phased correction, and it is recommended to buy on dips [53][56]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It may fluctuate widely, and it is not recommended to short in the short term [57][59]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamental pressure is not large, and it is affected by macro - emotions [60][62]. - **PE**: The fundamental situation is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [63][65]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The market sentiment has declined, and it is recommended to focus on export increments and downstream feedback [66]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or hold light positions [67][71][72]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to hold long positions [73][74]. - **Glass Soda Ash**: They are in a repeated pattern, with soda ash having an over - supply expectation and glass having a weak supply - demand pattern [75][76]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in a bottom - range oscillation, and the price ranges of rebar and hot - rolled coil are estimated [77][78]. - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuations are narrowing, and the price has certain support [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are testing the lower support, and the price may face pressure in the short term [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are oscillating weakly with cost support [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pig**: The price is falling [86]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on downstream orders [88][89]. - **Sugar**: The upward potential is limited [90][91]. - **Egg**: The futures are trading the post - holiday off - season expectation in advance, and the price is under pressure to fall [91][92]. - **Apple**: The spot price is loose, and it is recommended to focus on the shortage of delivery products [99][100]. - **Date**: It may be in a low - level oscillation, and it is recommended to focus on downstream procurement [101]. - **Log**: The volatility has returned to a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [102][103].

Core Viewpoint - Investor education in the futures market is crucial for maintaining market stability, protecting investor rights, and promoting healthy industry development. Dongwu Futures actively engages in this educational effort through diverse services and interactions to create a transparent and trustworthy market environment [1]. Group 1: Educational Activities - Dongwu Futures plans to leverage the advantages of the investor education base to conduct multi-dimensional and in-depth investor education activities in 2025, focusing on three core initiatives [1]. - The company will organize dozens of online and offline educational activities throughout the year, covering various financial futures and commodities, with participation from nearly ten thousand individuals, thereby expanding the reach and impact of these activities [1][2]. - In 2025, Dongwu Futures will host 40 themed meetings, including 10 online salons and 30 offline events, addressing topics such as fundamental analysis, market trends, and current events, which have been well-received by investors of different levels [2]. Group 2: Information Services - Dongwu Futures utilizes a multi-channel approach through its official website, app, and social media platforms to deliver timely market dynamics, trading information, and professional market analysis, ensuring that key information reaches investors accurately and promptly [2]. - The company emphasizes risk education for small and medium investors, focusing on matching capital scale with trading risks and providing practical risk management techniques such as position management and stop-loss settings [2]. Group 3: Innovative Content Delivery - Dongwu Futures has innovated in content presentation, balancing professionalism, engagement, and practicality through educational short videos that explain complex market principles and risk management tools in an accessible manner [3]. - The company’s short video "The New Guarantee for Fruit Farmers" won recognition for its relatable content and emotional resonance, showcasing the effectiveness of engaging educational materials [3]. Group 4: Future Plans - Dongwu Futures aims to establish a systematic and standardized investor education training content library, developing standardized courses and materials to enhance the quality and efficiency of educational efforts [4]. - The company plans to introduce interactive and experiential activities such as "futures simulation trading competitions" and "live Q&A sessions" to foster deeper understanding and skill acquisition among investors [4]. - Dongwu Futures is committed to becoming a trusted partner and enabler for investors, contributing to the stable development of the futures market and the cultivation of a mature investor community through its proactive educational initiatives [4].

Group 1: Macro - The current macro - environment features global geopolitical turmoil reshaping the order, domestic structural differentiation, and precise policy - driven stable growth. The old US - led global system is accelerating towards a fragmented end, with the failure of multilateral order and intensified great - power competition becoming the norm [1]. - The US and Europe's game over Greenland has escalated, with the US threatening tariffs on 8 European countries and the EU responding with counter - lists and freezing trade agreements. Swedish and Danish pension funds have cleared US bonds, impacting the traditional safe - haven status of US bonds [1]. - The US core PCE物价指数 in November 2025 met market expectations, indicating no significant rebound in inflation. The Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rate in the January meeting, and may keep rates stable until Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1]. - Japan's central bank policy is highly concerned. It is expected to maintain the current interest rate and hawkish tone, and Governor Ueda may explain this as an assessment of last year's interest - rate hikes [1]. - China's economy in 2025 ended with a pattern of "strong supply, stable external demand, and weak domestic demand". In 2026, the GDP growth target is expected to be 4.5% - 5%, and expanding domestic demand is the core of stable growth [1]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - Overseas, the strong US economic data boosts market risk appetite and depresses interest - rate cut expectations, but the US dollar index lacks upward momentum due to factors like Nordic pension funds' withdrawal [2]. - Domestically, the central bank's unexpected 900 billion yuan MLF operation and the indication of room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts in the year push up the US dollar - RMB exchange rate in the short term, but the expected high corporate settlement willingness may lead to a subsequent decline [2]. - In the future, the RMB has a solid foundation for trend - based appreciation. Its appreciation space depends on the US dollar index and the central bank's exchange - rate control orientation [2]. - Short - term strategy: Export enterprises can lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [3]. Group 3: Stock Index - The previous trading day saw a differentiated performance in the stock index. The large - cap index was weak in the morning and fluctuated in the afternoon, while the small - and medium - cap index fluctuated throughout the day. Except for the Shanghai 50 index, other indices closed up [4]. - Short - term, the index is in an adjustment phase with significant style differentiation, but the medium - and long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Small - and medium - cap indices are expected to outperform [4]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, the bond market was lackluster and oscillated. The trading - oriented funds retreated, and the market is cautious about the short - term bond market space [5]. - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, and attention should be paid to whether the capital interest rate will decline and stabilize at a low level [5]. - Medium - term, hold long positions; short - term, stay on the sidelines [5]. Group 5: Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping index (Europe line) futures market showed a differentiated trend, with near - month contracts under pressure and far - month contracts relatively resilient [5][6][7]. - Bullish factors for far - month contracts include the uncertainty of the Red Sea route's full resumption and potential rush - shipping demand in March [6]. - Bearish factors include the decline in spot freight rates and the reduced risk of short - term trade frictions [6]. - Strategy: Trend traders can conduct range operations, short near - month contracts at the upper end of the range and go long at the lower end, and be cautious about chasing far - month contracts [7]. Group 6: Commodities - New Energy Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate futures contract closed up, with increased trading volume and open interest. The spot market showed general performance, with rising prices of lithium ore and lithium salts [10]. - The addition of new registered brands on the GZEX is expected to strengthen the basis of lithium carbonate spot and narrow the spread between contracts [10]. - Before early February, consider going long on dips; before the Spring Festival, reduce positions to avoid risks [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The main industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts showed different trends. The industrial silicon spot market was general, while the photovoltaic industry chain spot market weakened [11][12][14]. - In April, the rush - export market in the photovoltaic and organic silicon fields is expected to drive up the demand for industrial silicon. For polysilicon, the industry is mainly focused on destocking [14]. - Strategy: Go long on industrial silicon on dips and short polysilicon on rallies. Reduce positions before the Spring Festival [14]. Group 7: Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price fluctuated narrowly at a key level. The inventory of copper in major exchanges showed different changes, and the spot market had general trading [16][17]. - The capital inflow into the chemical and agricultural product sectors was obvious, and the non - ferrous sector was weak. The copper price faced resistance at 100,000 yuan [18]. - Strategy: Do not open new positions above 100,000 yuan; hold existing long positions in the 90,000 - 95,000 yuan range, and adjust positions flexibly in the 95,000 - 100,000 yuan range [19]. Aluminum - The aluminum price showed a certain degree of volatility. The supply of aluminum increased, and the demand weakened before the Spring Festival, with inventory accumulation [20][21]. - Short - term, the aluminum price will oscillate; medium - and long - term, it is expected to be strong. Pay attention to dips for entry [21]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillated narrowly during the day and was strong at night. The supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was weak, with inventory accumulation [22]. - Short - term, it will oscillate weakly. Aggressive investors can try short positions lightly, and holders can sell call options [23]. Nickel - Stainless Steel - The nickel - stainless steel market oscillated at night. The supply of nickel ore was affected by the rainy season, and the demand for stainless steel was supported by inventory reduction [24]. - Be cautious about the high - level callback of stainless steel [24]. Tin - The tin price oscillated widely during the day and was strong at night. The supply was affected by the slow resumption in Myanmar and Indonesia, and the demand was in the off - season [25]. - It will maintain high - level wide - range oscillation. Be cautious about entering the market [25]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply was stimulated by high prices, and the demand lacked new drivers, with inventory changes [25]. - It will oscillate, and selling options to collect premiums is recommended [25]. Group 8: Commodities - Oils and Fats and Feeds Oilseeds - The external soybean market is expected to continue to be weak, while the domestic soybean meal market may stop falling at a low valuation. The potential improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations may change the pricing of rapeseed meal [27][28]. - Strategy: Reduce short positions in rapeseed meal [28]. Oils and Fats - The domestic oils and fats market showed a short - term weakening trend at night, but the overall upward trend remained. Pay attention to small - scale corrections [28]. - Palm oil is the strongest in the sector, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil may narrow [28][30]. Group 9: Commodities - Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur fuel oil supply tension is easing, and the demand is mainly concentrated in the bunkering market. The long - term downward trend remains, but there is short - term support [31][32]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The crack spread remains low [33]. Asphalt - The asphalt market oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the futures price was affected by geopolitical factors. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory increased [34]. - Strategy: Pay attention to positive spreads, 03 basis, and crack spread long positions [34]. Group 10: Commodities - Precious Metals Platinum and Palladium - The prices of platinum and palladium rose at night. The market is affected by international political uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and challenges to the Fed's independence [36][37]. - In the medium - and long - term, the bull market foundation for platinum and palladium remains. Be vigilant about the opening gap [38]. Gold and Silver - The prices of gold and silver reached new highs. The market is affected by the weakening of the US dollar system and geopolitical risk aversion [38]. - The precious metals market is in a bullish pattern. Gold has support at 4650, and silver has support at 86.5. Consider long positions on dips [39]. Group 11: Commodities - Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp and offset paper futures prices oscillated strongly at night. The pulp price is affected by spot market conditions, port inventory, and European inventory [40]. - Strategy: Observe or go long on dips, and close short positions [40][41]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose. The supply was moderately low, and the demand was weakening, especially in the PDH sector. The inventory was changing [41][42]. - Be cautious about the upward risk [42]. PTA - PX - The PX and PTA futures prices rose strongly. The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply is affected by device shutdowns. The demand for polyester is weakening [43][44][45]. - The PTA processing fee is expected to rise, but the space is limited. Wait for dips to go long [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The ethylene glycol futures price oscillated strongly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening due to the decline in terminal orders. The inventory is at a certain level [46][47]. - The market is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains [47]. PP - The polypropylene futures price rose. The short - term supply is reduced due to device maintenance, and the demand has some support, but it is expected to decline seasonally [48][49]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [49]. PE - The polyethylene futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase after device restart, and the demand will face seasonal decline [50][51]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The supply of pure benzene decreased and the demand increased, and the inventory showed changes. The supply of styrene was affected by unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction [51][52]. - Pay attention to the export increment of styrene, crude oil fluctuations, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials [52]. Urea - The urea futures price rose. The supply is in an over - capacity stage, and the price is supported by export policies. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation [52][53]. - Hold long positions [53]. Glass - Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has limited elasticity. The inventory is at a high level [54]. - The glass futures price rose. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory needs to be digested [55]. Propylene - The propylene futures price rose. The supply decreased and the demand increased this week, and the price was supported by cost and supply - demand factors [55][56][57]. - Pay attention to geopolitical and device - related changes [57]. Group 12: Commodities - Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices oscillated at a low level. The production recovery is slowing, the consumption of rebar is fluctuating, and the inventory is in a certain state. The cost end has both support and pressure [57][58][59]. - The short - term price will oscillate, with the rebar 2605 contract in the 3050 - 3200 yuan range and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the 3200 - 3350 yuan range [57]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price recovered. The iron - making production is affected by safety inspections, the inventory is increasing, and the supply and demand are in a certain state [57][58][59]. - The price has fallen to release the premium, and the downward space is not extremely pessimistic [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke futures prices rose. The coking coal production is increasing, the import is changing, and the coking enterprises' profits are shrinking. The steel production may be affected by an accident [59][60][61]. - The coking coal price may face downward pressure in the medium - and long - term if certain conditions are met [61]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures prices rebounded. The supply and demand are weakening, and the inventory is changing. The price is supported by cost [61][62]. - They will oscillate at a low level [62]. Group 13: Commodities - Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig futures price rose. The spot price is changing, with the supply being strong and the demand being weak. The second - fattening may support the price at a low level [64]. - The 03 contract may oscillate upward [64]. Cotton - The cotton futures price showed different trends. The domestic cotton supply is increasing moderately, and the demand is supported by spinning capacity expansion. The price is affected by the internal - external spread [64][65][66]. - The cotton price is likely to rise, but be cautious about chasing high. Wait for dips to go long [66]. Sugar - The sugar futures price rose. The international sugar price is affected by the Brazilian sugar - making ratio, and the domestic sugar supply and demand are in a certain state. The spot price is falling [66][67][68]. - The domestic sugar price may fall if the international sugar price drops [68]. Eggs - The egg futures price rose. The supply is sufficient, and the demand for pre - festival stocking is weakening [68][69]. - The near - month contract may continue to rise before the stocking period ends [69]. Apples - The apple futures price rose. The spot price is stable, the pre - festival stocking is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [70][71]. - The price may rise further if the demand continues to improve and the inventory decreases more than expected [71]. Red Dates - The red date market is focused on demand. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The price is likely to oscillate at a low level [72]. - Pay attention to the pre - festival procurement [72]. Logs - The log futures price rebounded with reduced positions. The spot price is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level. The market sentiment is affecting the price [72][73][74]. - Conduct range operations and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread opportunity [74].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Macro and Financial Futures** - The current macro - environment features global geopolitical turmoil and domestic structural differentiation with targeted policies for stable growth. The old US - led global system is ending, and the global financial market is in a risk - averse stage. China's economy is expected to achieve a GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5% in 2026, and the government is working to boost domestic demand [1]. - The RMB exchange rate has a solid basis for appreciation due to China's export resilience and increased corporate willingness to settle foreign exchange. However, its appreciation process will be relatively moderate [2][3]. - The stock index is in an adjustment stage in the short - term, with a continued structural market. In the long - term, the logic of loose liquidity driving the market remains positive [4]. - The bond market is not recommended for short - term chasing as the upside is limited despite improved market sentiment [5]. - The container shipping European route futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with near - month contracts weak and far - month contracts relatively resistant to decline [6][7][8]. - **Commodities** - Lithium carbonate is likely to show "off - season not off" characteristics in the spot market, and it is recommended to go long on dips before early February in the futures market [11][12]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have an upward - biased price due to increased demand for export and supply - side disturbances. Polysilicon is in a de - stocking phase with no clear upward driver [12][13]. - Copper prices continue to adjust with limited upward momentum. Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the long - term, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong [15][17][19]. - Zinc prices are likely to be weak and volatile in the short - term. Nickel - stainless steel is expected to be strong with some fundamental support. Tin prices may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation. Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [19][20][22]. - For oilseeds, the external soybean market is weak and volatile, while domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different outlooks. For oils, the sector is likely to be strong in the short - term, with palm oil being the strongest [24][25][26]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has a poor fundamental situation but is supported by the Iran issue. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking spread. Asphalt is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [30][31][33]. - Precious metals are in an upward - biased pattern but may face short - term correction pressure. Gold and silver can be considered for mid - term long positions on dips [34][35]. - **Chemicals** - Pulp and offset paper markets are relatively bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see. LPG shows an internal - external divergence. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips have different supply - demand situations, and it is recommended to go long on PX and short on polysilicon [36][39][41]. - Methanol is affected by geopolitical factors, and it is recommended to wait and see. PP is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and PE is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [45][47][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene have improved supply - demand situations. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to go long with a light position. Urea is recommended to hold long positions [50][52][56]. - Soda ash is in a situation of increasing supply, and glass is in a supply - demand weak pattern. Propylene prices are driven by cost and are expected to be affected by geopolitical and device changes [58][59][60]. - **Black Metals** - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a low - level oscillation. Iron ore prices have fallen but have support below. Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure in the long - term. Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate at the bottom [61][62][63]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - Hog prices are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - demand situation is still unbalanced. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate. Sugar prices are short - term weak. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely. Apples' future performance depends on demand. Jujubes are in a low - level oscillation. Logs are recommended for range - bound operations and long positions on dips [65][67][76] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro** - **Market Information**: Trump's statements on Greenland, central bank's payment settlement work meeting, and other geopolitical and economic events [1]. - **Core Judgments**: The global geopolitical situation affects the financial market, and China focuses on stable growth and boosting domestic demand [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate** - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined slightly. - **Core Logic**: China's export and corporate behavior support the RMB's appreciation, and the process is affected by the US dollar index and central bank policies [2][3]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - **Stock Index** - **Market Review**: The stock index showed a differentiated performance, and the trading volume decreased. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the market is in an adjustment stage with a structural market [4]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for short - term callbacks to increase positions [4]. - **Bond** - **Market Review**: The bond market showed a differentiated performance, and the money market was loose. - **Core Logic**: The bond market follows the stock market, and the upside is limited [5]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short - term [5]. - **Container Shipping European Route** - **Market Review**: The futures market showed a "near - weak, far - strong" pattern. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a game between weak current demand and long - term detour cost support [6][7]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Trend traders can wait or operate in a narrow range [8]. Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: The futures price increased, and the trading volume decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is general, and the prices of upstream and downstream products are rising [11]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on dips before early February and reduce positions before the Spring Festival [11][12]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, and polysilicon futures fell. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of industrial silicon is general, and the photovoltaic industry spot market is weak [12][13]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on industrial silicon and short on polysilicon, and reduce positions before the Spring Festival [13][14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper** - **Market Review**: Copper prices showed different trends in different markets. - **Industry Information**: Warehouse receipts and inventory changes, and Rio Tinto's production increase [15][16]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Do not build new positions above 100,000, hold long positions in the 90,000 - 95,000 range, and adjust positions flexibly in the 95,000 - 100,000 range [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices oscillated, and alumina and cast aluminum alloy prices changed slightly [17]. - **Industry Information**: The spot market of electrolytic aluminum improved slightly [17]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillatory and strong, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong [18][19]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: Zinc prices showed a weak oscillation. - **Core Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is cold [19]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Weakly oscillate, and aggressive investors can try short - selling [19][20]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: Nickel and stainless steel prices rose. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market prices and inventory changes [20]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the supply and demand situation [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: Tin prices were volatile. - **Core Logic**: The supply is affected, and the demand is in the off - season [22]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Be cautious when entering the market due to high volatility [22]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: Lead prices oscillated in a narrow range. - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand are in a weak pattern [22]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate, and sell options to collect premiums [22][23]. - **Oils and Feeds** - **Oilseeds** - **Market Review**: The external soybean market rebounded, and the domestic market was weak. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply and demand of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are different [24][25]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Exit the M3 - 5 long - short spread, and hold a small short position in rapeseed meal [25][26]. - **Oils** - **Market Review**: The oils market continued to strengthen. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have different characteristics [26][27]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The oils sector is strong in the short - term, and pay attention to the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [27][28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The fuel oil futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different situations [30][31]. - **Core Logic**: High - sulfur fuel oil has a poor foundation, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking spread [30][31]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: The asphalt market price decreased slightly. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [31][32]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitics, the asphalt market is expected to oscillate [32][33]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to long - short spreads, basis, and cracking long - positions [33]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver** - **Market Review**: Gold prices first rose and then fell, and silver prices were weaker [34]. - **Trading Logic**: Pay attention to geopolitical events, Fed policies, and other factors [35]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The precious metals are in an upward - biased pattern, and consider long positions on dips [35]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: The pulp and offset paper futures prices oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The port inventory of pulp increased, and the downstream demand was weak [36]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait and see, and consider long positions in offset paper at low prices [36]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: The LPG futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [36][37]. - **Core Logic**: The internal and external markets diverge, and pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [37][38]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: The PX and PTA futures prices changed. - **Industry Performance**: The supply, demand, and inventory of PX and PTA are different [39][40]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand situation of PTA and PX is complex, and the long - term pattern is good [40][41]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on PX and PTA on dips [41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Market Review**: The ethylene glycol futures price changed. - **Industry Performance**: The supply, demand, and inventory of ethylene glycol and bottle chips [41][42][43]. - **Core Logic**: The demand is under pressure, and the long - term pattern is bearish [43][44]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the downstream profit was affected [45]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitics, the operation is difficult [45][46]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait and see [46]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: The PP futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [46][47]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is improved, but the long - term is uncertain [47][48]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate widely [48]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: The PE futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease [48][49]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern is unfavorable [49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene** - **Market Review**: The pure benzene and styrene futures prices increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory and supply - demand changes [50][51][52]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene and styrene is improved [51][52]. - **Rubber** - **Market Review**: The rubber futures prices oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory and supply - demand changes [52][53][54]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, the price oscillates widely [55][56]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long with a light position and pay attention to spreads [56]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: The urea futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the market sentiment changed [56][57]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is excessive, and the price is affected by policies [57]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hold long positions [57]. - **Glass - Soda Ash** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the supply is expected to increase [58]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [58]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, but the demand is weak [59]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price has no trend [59]. - **Propylene** - **Market Review**: The propylene futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [59][60]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by cost and geopolitics, the supply - demand is balanced [60]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [60]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils** - **Market Review**: The prices oscillated, and the trading volume was low. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is neutral, and the price is affected by raw materials [61]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The price will oscillate in a certain range [61]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: The iron ore price continued to fall. - **Core Logic**: The previous high valuation is being adjusted, but there is support below [62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: The prices oscillated. - **Core Logic**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [63]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Market Review**: The ferroalloys prices oscillated. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by cost [63]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate at the bottom [64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Market Review**: The hog futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply - demand is unbalanced, and the price is under pressure [65][66]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to pre - festival stocking demand [67]. - **Cotton** - **Market Review**: The cotton futures price oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory increased, and the supply - demand situation is complex [67]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate and pay attention to downstream imports and orders [68].