金融期货早评 宏观：关注非农 【市场资讯】1）美国总统特朗普已同意推动一项旨在加强对俄制裁的法案，该法案为特朗 普提供了阻止中国、印度、巴西等国购买廉价俄罗斯石油的砝码。外交部发言人毛宁对此 表示，中俄之间的正常经贸能源合作不针对第三方，也不应当受到干扰和影响。2）美国 10 月贸易帐录得-294 亿美元，为 2009 年 6 月以来最小逆差。3）美国至 1 月 3 日当周初请 失业金人数四周均值 21.175 万人，前值由 21.875 万人修正为 21.9 万人。4）美联储——① 米兰：预计在 2026 年将进行约 150 个基点的降息。②特朗普称已决定下一任美联储主席 人选。③贝森特敦促美联储进一步降息，并称预计特朗普将在本月宣布美联储主席人选。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】从宏观环境看，国内"适度宽松"的货币政策基调与"集成效应"调 控思路，提供偏暖流动性预期；"保持人民币汇率基本稳定"导向，在美元偏弱背景下有助 于稳定进口成本。国际层面形势紧张，美国财长贝森特再度喊话敦促美联储降息，这一高 频表态本身就是危险信号，暗示形势紧迫，市场正提前为潜在风险定价。其背后，12 月美 国就业报告虽号称"恢复正常"，却 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：商品普涨，牛市将至？ 【市场资讯】1）中国央行连续第 14 个月增持黄金。2）上期所调整白银期货相关合约交 易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。3）特朗普称"美国将代表委内瑞拉销售石油"，中方表态： 中委合作受国际法和两国法律保护。4）美国 12 月 ADP 就业人数增加 4.1 万人，低于市场 预期的中值 4.7 万人。5）美国 2025 年 12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数上升 1.8 点至 54.4，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。新订单增幅创下自 2024 年 9 月以来的最大水平。价格上涨 速度降至九个月来的最慢。6）欧元区 2025 年 12 月 CPI 初值放缓至 2%，符合市场预期。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】昨日国内期货市场普遍上涨，行情呈现出清晰的结构性特征，交 投氛围活跃。这不禁引人思考：当前走势是意味着商品市场迈入新阶段，还是阶段性的资 金现象？从宏观环境看，近期明确的"适度宽松"货币政策基调与强调"集成效应"的调控思路， 为市场提供了偏暖的流动性预期；而"保持人民币汇率基本稳定"的导向，在美元偏弱背景 下亦有助于稳定进口成本。然而，若细究昨日普涨的核心动因，资 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：内稳外扰下的结构机遇 【市场资讯】1）中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。2）国家外汇局召开 2026 年全国外汇管理工作会议。会 议提出，2026 年出台境外放款、国内外汇贷款资金管理等政策，在全国实施跨国公司本外 币跨境资金集中运营管理政策。筑牢外汇市场"防波堤""防浪堤"，维护外汇市场稳健运行。 3）美联储理事米兰：2026 年需要降息超过 100 个基点。4）委内瑞拉局势——①油库满载 委内瑞拉和美国就向美出口石油问题进行谈判。②马杜罗执政初期，委内瑞拉向瑞士运送 了价值 52 亿美元的黄金。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】1 月 5 日至 6 日召开的 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议，正式确认 全年货币政策基调为"适度宽松"，并首次强调增量政策与存量政策的"集成效应"，标志着宏 观调控思路的系统性调整。会议明确将灵活运用降准降息等多种工具，保持流动性合理充 裕，并完善结构性货币政策，加大对科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的支持。这一部署 与"两重""两新"投资及消费提振政策形成协同，强化了对基建、工业品及下游板块的支撑力 ...

2025年，全球流动性环境显著改善，美联储开启实质性降息周期，美元指数全年下跌9.41%，为贵金属价格上行提供了有利的外部环境。同时，中国稳增 长政策持续发力，制造业与基建需求边际回暖，有色金属及新能源相关品种需求明显改善。 在流动性宽松与避险需求共振的背景下，贵金属板块表现尤为突出，Wind 贵金属指数全年上涨 69.7%，明显跑赢全球主要权益市场。整体来看，2025 年 大类资产走势呈现"贵金属领涨、权益资产分化、美元走弱"的典型特征。 | 2025年大类资产走势 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (单位：%) | | | | | | | | 2025 | | 2024 | | | | 2020 | | 69.70 Wind贵金属指数 | 28.97 | | | 10.72 | -9.42 | 18.63 | | 27.65 万得全A | 10.00 -5.19 | | | -18.66 | 9.17 | 25.62 | | 16.39 - 标普500 | | 23.31 24.23 -19.44 26.89 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the employment market recovered, weakening the rate - cut expectation. Domestically, the government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task next year. However, the domestic demand in November was weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: Although there is an expectation that the RMB will "break 7 and enter 6" in 2026, there are three potential risks. The RMB's real purchasing power is underestimated, and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread is the core trigger for its appreciation. The attractiveness of the capital market has become a key variable for the exchange - rate trend [4]. - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the market sentiment has improved, there is still pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end and tightened capital [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market. Hold mid - term long positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, weighing between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", waiting for a clear pre - holiday driver [9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: In the medium - to - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the large futures - spot price difference and light spot trading [16]. - **Gold & Silver**: In the short term, gold is in a relatively strong state after breaking through the previous high, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - to - long term, maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price has exceeded the expected range. After reaching a new high, the long - short game intensifies, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to run weakly. For cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock [24]. - **Tin**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to operate within the range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, beware of sharp fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, there are opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, with value for long - term bottom - fishing. Polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals, and new registered warehouse receipts should be monitored [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the rebar 2605 contract between 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract between 3000 - 3400 [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to run within a range, with limited upside space after valuation repair [33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, if steel mills resume production quickly, the supply - demand structure is expected to improve [35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and they may follow the steel - price trend [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is neutral. The "breaking 7" of the RMB brings macro - level benefits, and the price has rebounded from a low level. For offset - paper futures, the market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to wait and see or try short - term long positions [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the situation [43]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, with an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation, and the follow - up should focus on relevant news [56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - term出栏 pressure remains, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a strong trend [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market soybeans are waiting for the January USDA report, and the internal - market soybean meal should focus on the supply increase from state reserves. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they will continue to fluctuate. Palm oil is relatively strong in the sector, and attention should be paid to the production and biodiesel market information [70]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is gradually digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, some farmers are culling hens. It is recommended to take a light - position long position if betting on a rebound [74][75]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: In the short term, the jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is loose, and the price will be under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to issues such as the relaxation of rare - earth magnet exports to the US, TikTok's joint - venture establishment in the US, and opposed the US's additional 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0066 on the previous trading day, and the mid - price rose. Japan raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year and is approaching the 2% inflation target [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed up on the previous trading day, and the market sentiment improved. However, there is pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond closed down on Thursday, and the trading volume of medium - and long - term varieties continued to shrink. The market adheres to a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures market fluctuates between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", with spot - price increase games and geopolitical disturbances [9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to limit positions. The long - term prospects of platinum are good, but beware of short - term adjustment risks [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, while the domestic night - session was active. Silver rose sharply. Pay attention to the appointment of the new Fed chairman and economic data [17]. - **Copper**: The CSPT did not set a spot - purchase guidance price for Q1 2026. The copper price has reached a new high, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [18][19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term, alumina is in an over - supply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the aluminum - price trend [20][21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strong support below. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, but the short - term raw - material supply is tight. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They showed a slight correction and are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel - ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is relatively stable [23][24]. - **Tin**: It fluctuated widely at a high level. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to recover in December, and the demand has no obvious increase in the short term [25][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price decreased, and the trading volume and open interest declined. The industry is in a state of production increase and inventory reduction [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals. Pay attention to new registered warehouse receipts [27][28]. - **Lead**: The lead price rebounded slightly. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 [28][29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price rebounded due to the rise of coking coal and iron ore prices and then fluctuated. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the steel - mill inventory is low. The iron - water production is expected to bottom out, and the price is expected to run within a range [32][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking - coal inventory structure is deteriorating, and the coke's third - round price cut has been fully implemented. As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve [34][35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They rebounded from the bottom last week due to policy and cost factors. The supply may decrease, and the demand is expected to decline [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price rebounded from a low level, and the offset - paper market sentiment improved. The port pulp inventory is decreasing, and some pulp mills have reduced prices [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price [42][43]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuated, and the fundamentals were stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern, and PTA's production has decreased significantly. The PTA processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, and styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant news [54][56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price showed regional differences. The long - term can be bullish, but focus on the short - to - medium - term fundamentals [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. The soybean supply is expected to be stable, and the rapeseed supply is low. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. Palm oil production is expected to decline, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall market will continue to fluctuate [70]. - **Cotton**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic cotton price rose. The new - season cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic sugar price fell. In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The futures price was stable, and the spot price was mainly stable. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and some farmers are culling hens [74][75]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the spot price was stable. The consumption has slowed down, and wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: The new - jujube harvest is basically completed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term supply - demand is loose [78][79].

金融期货早评 宏观：美国就业市场回温 【市场资讯】1）中国央行四季度例会：继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周 期调节力度。2）北京楼市新政：放宽非京籍家庭购房条件、支持多子女家庭住房需求。3） 贝森特暗示美联储未来方向：通胀"区间制"，取消"点阵图"，支持财政部，回归"幕后"。4） 圣诞前夕美国就业市场回温，上周首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国 GDP 数据数据公布，三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%，创两年 最快增速，整体表现相对强劲，在一定程度上打击了降息预期。美国就业市场回温，上周 首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落，数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。国内方面，政治局会议 与中央经济工作会议延续"稳中求进"总基调，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策；明年重点工作以扩大内需为首要任务，核心在于推进城乡居民增收与释放服务 消费潜力，同时依托创新推动新旧动能转换。而 11 月经济数据显示工业生产韧性尚存，社 会消费品零售同比增速降至 1.3%，内需表现偏弱，仍需政策托底。 人民币汇率：涨声一片 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move rather than a temporary measure, crucial for China's long-term development and stability [2] - Domestic demand has become the main driving force for China's economic growth, contributing over 90% to economic growth during the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans, with final consumption and capital formation contributing 55% and 38% respectively [2] - The projected scale of final consumption and capital formation for 2024 is 76.3 trillion yuan and 54.8 trillion yuan, which are 2.7 times and 2.2 times that of 2012 [2] Group 2 - The futures market can support the strategy of expanding domestic demand by promoting effective investment and consumption [3] - The futures market helps enterprises conduct effective investments and improve supply quality by providing forward-looking price signals and diverse hedging methods [3] - Price volatility in commodities, such as new energy materials, has made it difficult for companies to lock in raw material costs, impacting capacity planning [3] Group 3 - The futures market enhances the stability of residents' wealth, contributing to the realization of the wealth effect by serving as an effective tool for diversified investment [4] - The financial futures market in China has been expanding, providing effective tools for various financial institutions to manage market risks [4] - The "insurance + futures" model has been successfully implemented for 10 years, helping to stabilize and increase farmers' income, thus releasing rural consumption potential [4] Group 4 - The futures market needs to enrich the supply of futures varieties and improve the market system to connect enterprises and end consumers effectively [5] - There is a lack of corresponding futures varieties for emerging industries and regional specialty agricultural products, which hinders hedging needs [5] - Innovative service models are required to address the challenges faced by small and micro enterprises in participating in the futures market [5] Group 5 - The design and promotion of wealth management products that focus on diversified investment and risk hedging should be innovated by futures operating institutions [6] - Investor education should be advanced to cultivate a risk management culture, as many market participants have a limited understanding of futures tools [6] - The futures market's development history is relatively short, and there is a need for more effective and diverse investor education methods [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - Overseas, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone. The US job market is cooling, and CPI data is suspected of being distorted. The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, causing the global bond market to decline. Domestically, fiscal and monetary policies remain positive, but domestic demand is weak and needs policy support [2]. - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may "break 7" and depreciate moderately in 2026, supported by factors such as narrowing monetary policy differentials, strengthening domestic economic fundamentals, and inflows of international capital [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to be volatile; the bond market is not pessimistic in the medium - term, and short - term trading should avoid chasing highs [5][6]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver prices are strong. In the short - term, silver should be cautiously chased due to rising price risks. In the long - term, factors such as the Fed's rate - cut rhythm, dollar index, and demand for gold by central banks should be considered [11][12]. - Copper prices may break through or return to a volatile pattern. Buying on dips is recommended [15]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [16]. - Zinc is expected to have a high - level wide - range shock in the short - term [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices have rebounded, but the market is affected by various factors. Tin prices should be cautiously chased above 340,000 [18][19]. - Lithium carbonate prices may have a short - term correction but are expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance in the long - term. Buying on dips is recommended [21]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon trading should focus on technical analysis [21]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 [23]. Black Commodities - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be volatile, with the rebar 2605 contract in the range of 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the range of 3000 - 3400 [26]. - Iron ore prices are range - bound, with upper pressure from high supply and lower support from steel mill profits and expected iron - water recovery [26][27]. - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by supply and demand and inventory. The third - round price cut of coke is expected to land, and the coking coal inventory structure may improve [30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, but the upside is limited [31]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp prices are expected to be volatile, and offset paper can be lightly shorted [32]. - Crude oil prices may rise due to the tense situation between the US and Venezuela [34]. - LPG is supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term [35]. - PX and PTA are expected to be in a good supply - demand pattern, but PTA processing fees have limited upside. Buying on dips is recommended [38][39]. - MEG prices are under pressure from supply and demand and cost, and the upside is limited [41]. - Methanol is in a mixed situation, and the 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage can be held [43]. - PP may have reduced supply in January, and buying on dips can be considered [45]. - PE is affected by the weak spot market, but the downside is limited due to potential supply reduction [47]. - Pure benzene is in a surplus situation, and styrene is changing from a strong to a weak situation [48][49]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak situation, and low - sulfur fuel oil is improving [50][51]. - Rubber is expected to be under pressure and volatile, and synthetic rubber's upside is limited [52][53]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short - term [54]. - Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are expected to be volatile, with soda ash facing surplus pressure and glass having high inventory [54][55][56]. - Log prices may improve due to supply reduction expectations, and a short put option strategy can be considered [58]. - Propylene is expected to be weakly volatile [60]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be affected by policies in the long - term, but the short - term is based on fundamentals. The near - term has high supply pressure, and the far - term is stronger [61]. - Oilseeds have a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Soybean meal's near - term is supported, and rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [62][63]. - Oils are running weakly following the external market. Buying near - term contracts can be tried [63][64]. - Cotton prices lack a short - term driver but may rise in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream order situation before the festival [66]. - Sugar prices have rebounded after a sharp decline, and the downward trend continues [67]. - Egg prices may have a short - term rebound, but the long - term capacity is still excessive [68]. - Apple prices may have a pull - back, and buying on dips can be considered [69]. - Red date prices have limited downside in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - festival procurement [70]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes the State Council meeting, TikTok news, price rules, Hainan's customs - closure, Trump's policies, Fed news, the Bank of Japan's rate hike, and international negotiations [1]. - The core logic is the Fed's rate cut, the Bank of Japan's rate hike, and the domestic economic policy of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose. Important news includes the US Treasury Secretary's statement and Trump's pharmaceutical agreement. The 2026 exchange rate is expected to be volatile and depreciate moderately [3][4]. Stock Index - The previous trading day's stock index rose, but the trading volume was low. The short - term is expected to be volatile [4][5]. Treasury Bond - The previous week's bond market rebounded. The market is not pessimistic in the medium - term, and short - term trading should avoid chasing highs [5][6]. Container Shipping to Europe - The SCFI European line slightly declined, and futures prices were volatile at a high level. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [7][8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are strong. In the short - term, silver price risks are rising; in the long - term, multiple factors need to be considered [11][12]. - **Copper**: Prices may break through or be volatile. Buying on dips is recommended [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - term; alumina is weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [16]. - **Zinc**: Short - term high - level wide - range shock [17]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices have rebounded, affected by various factors [18]. - **Tin**: Prices should be cautiously chased above 340,000 [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: May have a short - term correction, but long - term supply - demand is tight. Buying on dips is recommended [20][21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon trading should focus on technical analysis [21]. - **Lead**: Expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 [23]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices are volatile, affected by cost support and demand weakness [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are range - bound, with supply pressure on the upside and demand support on the downside [26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by supply, demand, and inventory. The third - round price cut of coke is expected to land, and the coking coal inventory structure may improve [30]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Volatile and strong in the short - term, but the upside is limited [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices are expected to be volatile, and offset paper can be lightly shorted [32]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices may rise due to the tense US - Venezuela situation [34]. - **LPG**: Supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term [35]. - **PTA - PX**: In a good supply - demand pattern, but PTA processing fees have limited upside. Buying on dips is recommended [36][38]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Prices are under pressure from supply, demand, and cost, and the upside is limited [40][41]. - **Methanol**: In a mixed situation, and the 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage can be held [43]. - **PP**: May have reduced supply in January, and buying on dips can be considered [44][45]. - **PE**: Affected by the weak spot market, but the downside is limited due to potential supply reduction [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in a surplus situation, and styrene is changing from a strong to a weak situation [48][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is improving [49][51]. - **Rubber**: Expected to be under pressure and volatile, and synthetic rubber's upside is limited [52][53]. - **Urea**: Expected to be volatile in the short - term [54]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Volatile, with soda ash facing surplus pressure and glass having high inventory [54][55][56]. - **Log**: Prices may improve due to supply reduction expectations, and a short put option strategy can be considered [58]. - **Propylene**: Expected to be weakly volatile [60]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: May be affected by policies in the long - term, but the short - term is based on fundamentals. The near - term has high supply pressure, and the far - term is stronger [61]. - **Oilseeds**: Near - strong and far - weak pattern. Soybean meal's near - term is supported, and rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [62][63]. - **Oils**: Running weakly following the external market. Buying near - term contracts can be tried [63][64]. - **Cotton**: Prices lack a short - term driver but may rise in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream order situation before the festival [66]. - **Sugar**: Prices have rebounded after a sharp decline, and the downward trend continues [67]. - **Egg**: Prices may have a short - term rebound, but the long - term capacity is still excessive [68]. - **Apple**: Prices may have a pull - back, and buying on dips can be considered [69]. - **Red Date**: Prices have limited downside in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - festival procurement [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 18, equity index futures declined while TL rose; metals and energy sectors advanced, with platinum, palladium, coking coal and coke leading the gains [12][14]. - The rally of coking coal and coke may be a valuation recovery driven by fund flows amid news catalysts, following an oversold period. With the intensification of winter stockpiling, their fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, but potential pressure from high coking coal imports and unstable thermal coal prices should be noted [18][25]. - For iron ore, overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, demand weakened, and port stocks edged up while steel mill stocks fell, with weak restocking willingness [34][35]. - MOFCOM strongly opposes the European Commission's intensive investigations against Chinese enterprises and indicates that China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case [39][40]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange was approved as a Qualified Central Counterparty, which helps enhance its international influence and promote the high - level opening - up of China's futures market [42]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IC dropped by 0.7%, IM dropped by 0.3%, TL rose by 0.2% [12]. - Commodity futures: The top three gainers were palladium (up 7.0% with a 39.8% month - on - month surge in open interest), coking coal (up 6.1% with a 0.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), and coke (up 5.4% with a 23.4% month - on - month drop in open interest). The top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 3.1% with a 1.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest), poly - silicon (down 2.6% with an 8.9% month - on - month slide in open interest), and No.2 soybean (down 1.4% with a 35.9% month - on - month shrinkage in open interest) [13][14][15]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal & Coke - On December 18th, coking coal rose by 6.1% to 1,126.5 yuan/tonne; coke climbed by 5.4% to 1,603.5 yuan/tonne. The rally may be due to news catalysts and fund flows after an oversold period [18]. - Two factors raised market expectations of tighter coal supply: the release of the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization (2025 Edition)" and safety interviews with major coal - producing regions. However, the short - term impact on production and supply is limited. - Winter stockpiling has started. For coking coal, some coal varieties' cost - performance has become attractive, and mid - and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. For coke, steel mills' procurement intensity has slightly increased [22][23][24]. 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On December 18, iron ore rose 1.6% to 777.5 yuan/ton. Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with Australian shipments slightly growing, Brazilian shipments increasing significantly, and non - mainstream shipments weakening. Demand weakened as iron water output dropped, and steel mills' profitability and sinter powder consumption and inventory declined. Port stocks edged up, and steel mill stocks fell with weak restocking willingness [33][34][35]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - MOFCOM strongly opposes the European Commission's intensive launch of FSR investigations against Chinese enterprises, which are targeted and discriminatory. China urges the EU to stop the unreasonable suppression and create a fair business environment. - China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case, and China is willing to resolve differences through dialogue [39][40]. 2.2 Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the Guangzhou Futures Exchange as a Qualified Central Counterparty, which helps enhance its international influence and promotes the high - level opening - up of China's futures market [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the RMB is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, mostly in a low - volatility range with limited trading value. Key factors include clear policy support, enhanced independent exchange - rate fluctuations, and a resonance of internal and external environments. However, potential risks such as high long - position inventories of USD/HKD and the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes should be noted [3]. - The entry of the national team only boosts the market sentiment in the short term. The stock index is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and the small and medium - cap stock indexes may face pressure [4]. - For the bond market, it is not pessimistic in the medium term. Mid - term long positions can be held, while short - term long positions can consider taking profits [5]. - In the container shipping European route, there is a bull - bear mix. The price is expected to be supported in January due to shipping companies' price - holding intentions, but factors such as weak economic data, sufficient shipping capacity, and the expected resumption of Red Sea routes may bring pressure [6]. - For platinum and palladium, the long - term bullish foundation for platinum remains. In the short term, attention should be paid to the risk of adjustment due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. For gold and silver, be cautious about short - term callbacks, and maintain a long - term bullish view. For copper, the market sentiment is high, but the price increase did not meet expectations. For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. For zinc, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. For nickel and stainless steel, they had a short - term correction, and attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation. For tin, it is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips. For lithium carbonate, the short - term price may fluctuate more widely, and there are opportunities for long positions in the long term. For industrial silicon, it is in a supply - demand weak situation, and for polysilicon, the trading logic is mainly technical [9][11][13][16][19][20][22][23][24][26]. - For steel products, the price is expected to fluctuate. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 is likely between 2900 - 3300, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 is likely between 3000 - 3400. For iron ore, the downward space is expected to be limited. For coking coal and coke, if the upward trend continues, it may drive a new round of terminal restocking. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, the market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and there may be a short - term rebound [30][31][32][33][34][36]. - For pulp and offset paper, the short - term strategy is mainly to wait and see. For crude oil, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation may drive up short - term oil prices. For LPG, the near - term is still supported. For PTA - PX, there is no obvious driver, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. For MEG - bottle chips, the short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the medium - and long - term situation is still under pressure. For methanol, it is recommended to maintain a reverse spread. For PP, the cost side provides strong support, and there may be a short - term rebound. For PE, the spot side is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large. For pure benzene - styrene, pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. For asphalt, if the US does not directly declare war on Venezuela, the upward space is limited. For rubber, both natural and synthetic rubber are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. For urea, the 01 contract is expected to continue to fluctuate. For soda ash, it is waiting for unexpected supply changes. For glass, the near - month 01 will follow the delivery logic, and the far - month is affected by production line cold repairs. For caustic soda, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For logs, the current price has limited trading value. For propylene, it is expected to maintain a shock pattern [38][40][42][44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][57][58][60][61][62][63][65][67][68][70][71][72][75][76][78][79][80]. - For oilseeds, the external soybean market will focus on demand in the short term and is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the medium term. The domestic soybean meal will continue the long - spread trend in the short term, and the medium - term supply depends on reserve releases. For oils, the short - term trend is wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel information. For cotton, it is recommended to build long positions on dips, paying attention to downstream orders and hedging pressure. For sugar, the price will remain weak. For apples, the strategy is mainly to buy on dips. For red dates, the short - term downward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday procurement [81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in December, the US employment market cooled, and the UK's CPI decline increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut. Domestically, policies are "seeking progress while maintaining stability," and in November, industrial production was resilient but domestic demand was weak [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. Key information includes China's fiscal revenue growth, the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, and the UK's CPI decline. The RMB is expected to be moderately strong in the short term, with potential risks [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose collectively in the previous trading day. The entry of the national team boosted market sentiment, but the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and small and medium - cap indexes may face pressure [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rose on Wednesday. The market sentiment improved, and it is not pessimistic in the medium term. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can consider taking profits [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The night - session prices of platinum and palladium rose to new highs this year. The price is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy, supply - demand fundamentals, and EU policies. In the long term, the bullish foundation for platinum remains, and short - term adjustment risks should be noted [9][10]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices rose. Silver shows a long - squeeze phenomenon. The short - term focus is on callback risks, and the long - term view is bullish [11][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded. The market sentiment was high, but the increase did not meet expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 93500 - 94000, and downstream enterprises can consider buying futures on dips for hedging [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals of aluminum are relatively stable, alumina is in a supply - surplus situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support [16][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices had support at the bottom and rebounded slightly at night. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, and there may be entry opportunities [19][20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They had a short - term correction. The nickel ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is affected by export regulations. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation [20][21]. - **Tin**: Tin prices were strong. It is recommended to enter the market on dips, and the short - term view is not to short [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rose sharply. The short - term price may fluctuate more widely, and there are opportunities for long positions in the long term. Attention should be paid to supply shocks and demand declines [22][23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation, and polysilicon's trading logic is mainly technical. The long - term price of industrial silicon has limited downward space, and polysilicon's fundamentals are ineffective [24][26]. - **Lead**: Lead prices were weakly volatile. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500, with strong support around 16500 [27]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices rebounded slightly but faced pressure above. After the central economic work conference, the pricing of the steel market returned to fundamentals. Supply may slow down the reduction, demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is in a de - stocking trend. The price is expected to fluctuate [28][30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. After macro events, the trading logic returned to fundamentals. Supply is relatively restrained, demand is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the price is supported by coking coal [32]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal price may be affected by winter restocking, and the coke price may continue to decline. If the upward trend continues, it may drive a new round of terminal restocking [33][34]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. Supply is likely to continue to decline, demand is expected to decrease, and inventory is at a high level. There may be a short - term rebound [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices fluctuated, and offset paper prices were weakly volatile. The Crofton pulp mill's shutdown was postponed, and the pulp port inventory is still high. The short - term strategy for both is to wait and see [38][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. The US - Venezuela tension may drive up short - term oil prices, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [42][43][44]. - **LPG**: The near - term is still supported. The supply increased slightly, demand remained stable, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [45][46]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious driver, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. PX supply is expected to be high, PTA supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation in December, and the polyester demand is expected to decline seasonally in December [47][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the medium - and long - term situation is still under pressure. Supply has shown initial signs of support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally in December [50][52]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to maintain a reverse spread. Factors such as commodity trends and unloading problems have affected the price, and the unloading problem will be resolved in the future [53][54]. - **PP**: The cost side provides strong support, and there may be a short - term rebound. Supply may be relieved in January, and demand has some support [55][57]. - **PE**: The spot side is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large. Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing, especially in the agricultural film sector [58][60]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply of pure benzene is slightly decreasing, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene has increased, and the demand is stable [60][61]. - **Asphalt**: If the US does not directly declare war on Venezuela, the upward space is limited. The supply and demand have changed slightly, and the US - Venezuela situation may affect the supply of heavy oil [62]. - **Rubber**: Both natural and synthetic rubber are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. Natural rubber is affected by supply - side disturbances and weak demand. Synthetic rubber has limited fundamental improvement, and the upward space is restricted [63][65][67]. - **Urea**: The 01 contract is expected to continue to fluctuate. High supply pressures the price, but export policies relieve the pressure, and the inventory is in a de - stocking trend [68][70]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for unexpected supply changes, glass's near - month 01 will follow the delivery logic, and the far - month is affected by production line cold repairs. Caustic soda prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure and weakening demand [71][72][75]. - **Logs**: The current price has limited trading value. It is in a position - shifting market, with the inventory decreasing and the spot price falling [76][78]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to maintain a shock pattern. The supply is relatively loose, demand is stable, and it is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [79][80]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market will focus on demand in the short term and is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the medium term. The domestic soybean meal will continue the long - spread trend in the short term, and the medium - term supply depends on reserve releases. The rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [81][82]. - **Oils**: The short - term trend is wide - range shock. Palm oil is affected by supply pressure, soybean oil is affected by soybean auctions, and rapeseed oil is affected by global supply. Attention should be paid to production and biodiesel information [82][83]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The downstream shows resilience, but short - term pressure exists. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and hedging pressure [84]. - **Sugar**: The price will remain weak. Global sugar production and trade data affect the price, such as India's high production and Brazil's high exports [85][86]. - **Apples**: The strategy is mainly to buy on dips. Consumption is sluggish, and inventory is slowly decreasing [87][88]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term downward space may be limited. New - season production is slightly reduced, and new - product supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday procurement [89].