Group 1: Financial Futures Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data release and its impact on the actual economy. The absence of October non - farm data and the Fed's divided views have cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are showing a marginal slowdown, and the policy support and its effectiveness are key concerns [1]. Summary by Directory - **Macro**: The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, with many opposing a December rate cut. The US October non - farm data is not released, and the November report is postponed, leading to a cooling of the rate - cut expectation. Overseas, focus on the impact of the government shutdown on the economy, and domestically, pay attention to policy support [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Affected by the non - farm data and the Fed's differences, the US dollar index is strong, and the rate - cut expectation has cooled. Follow US November economic data, the next Fed chair candidate, and domestic enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange. The RMB may get some support from seasonal effects [2]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.12, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 7.07 [3]. - **Stock Index**: Nvidia's earnings exceeded expectations, which may drive up the domestic technology sector. The index style may switch to small - and medium - cap stocks in the short term. The index is expected to oscillate with upper pressure and lower support [3][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view. Although the A - share rebound and other factors have affected the bond market, the medium - term fundamentals still support it. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be established on dips [5][6]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures price oscillates, waiting for new drivers. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market, and the short - term is expected to be weakly oscillating. Trend traders can wait and see, and arbitrage traders can take profit on the 12 - 02 reverse spread [7][8][9]. Group 2: Commodities Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The performance of different commodities varies. For precious metals, the short - term is affected by the unclear rate - cut prospect, while the medium - and long - term is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases. Other commodities are also influenced by their respective supply - demand, cost, and policy factors [12][15]. Summary by Directory - **Precious Metals (Gold & Silver)**: The rate - cut expectation has cooled. Focus on the US September non - farm employment report. In the short term, the price may continue to oscillate and adjust, and dips can be used to build long positions. The long - term price is expected to rise [12][13][15]. - **Copper**: The delay of non - farm employment data makes the copper price lack elasticity. The short - term is mainly about post - decline repair. Pay attention to the support at 86000 and the pressure at 87000. Downstream enterprises can use a combined strategy to reduce procurement costs [15][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - and long - term and oscillate in the short - term. Alumina is expected to be weakly running, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level [17][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The rate - cut expectation has cooled, and the smelting end may reduce production in November. Observe the inventory changes and the bottom space at the end of the month [19][20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are oscillating at the bottom, waiting for clear signals. The supply of nickel ore may be affected by the rainy season and typhoons, and the demand for nickel - iron is weak. Stainless steel has high inventory and low demand [20][21]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating narrowly. Due to the shortage of concentrates, the supply is weaker than demand, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about chasing high prices. The downstream replenishment willingness is low, and the upside space is doubtful. It is recommended to gradually take profit on long positions [23][24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downside space, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips. Polysilicon has weak short - term fundamentals, and it is suitable to short on rallies [25][26]. - **Lead**: The bottom space is small. The supply is tight, and the import window is open. It is expected to oscillate [27][28]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The black metal market is affected by factors such as environmental protection inspections, supply - demand relationships, and cost. The overall is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the risk of negative feedback [29]. Summary by Directory - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate within a range. Rebar's supply - demand balance is marginally improving, and hot - rolled coil has high inventory and needs to reduce production to destock. Pay attention to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption [29][30]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is being repaired. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and there is a shortage of deliverable products. Wait for the basis to be repaired and then consider shorting on rallies [31][33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot price of coking coal in Shanxi has loosened, and the short - term may face adjustment pressure. The medium - and long - term is supported by policies and winter storage demand. Consider building long positions when the price falls to the lower limit of the range [34][35]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They continue to accumulate inventory. The demand is expected to decline, and they are expected to oscillate weakly [36][37]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The energy and chemical market is affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Different products have different trends, and attention should be paid to relevant factors such as geopolitical risks and macro - funds' risk - aversion trends [39]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation has cooled. It is expected to oscillate between 60 - 65 in the short - and medium - term. Pay attention to geopolitical risks and macro - funds' risk - aversion trends [39][40][41]. - **LPG**: The cost fluctuates greatly, and the domestic market is relatively strong. The supply is slightly decreasing, the demand of PDH is in a loss state, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall fundamentals are neutral to positive, but the valuation is high [42][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The aromatics blending logic is strengthened, and they are expected to oscillate strongly with the cost. Pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and macro - dynamics. The PTA processing fee can be operated within the range of 200 - 290 [44][47][48]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Consider taking profit on short positions and switch to selling call options. The demand is expected to be stable in November and weaken seasonally in December. The supply may accumulate inventory, and the long - term is under pressure [49][50]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract is expected to be weakly running. The port pressure is difficult to relieve, and it is recommended to hold short call options and conduct reverse spreads [51][52]. - **PP**: It is oscillating at the bottom. The supply pressure may be relieved if more devices stop, and the demand is good in the short term. It is not advisable to short further in the short term and can consider going long on dips [53][55]. - **PE**: The fundamental driving force is insufficient. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited in the long term. The downward space is limited, but the upward pressure exists [56][57]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The aromatics market is running strongly. Pure benzene may have more negative feedback, and styrene has high inventory and limited rebound height [58][59]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported by factors such as supply reduction and demand improvement [60][61][62]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom space is small. Pay attention to the winter storage willingness. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the long - term demand may be affected by seasonal factors [63][64][65]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is mainly cost - priced and has limited upward elasticity. Glass has high inventory and downward pressure. Caustic soda has high supply and weak demand in the long term [65][66][67]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: The futures price centers are moving down. Pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply, and offset paper is affected by tender prices [68][69]. - **Log**: Continue to pay attention to shorting opportunities and the 01 - 03 reverse spread. The spot price decline drives the futures price down, and the inventory is increasing [70][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Macro and Financial Futures - Overseas, focus on the impact of the US government shutdown on the economy and Fed personnel changes. Domestically, the economy shows a marginal slowdown, and policy support is crucial [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported by seasonal factors and weak US employment data, but attention should be paid to US non - farm payroll data [3]. - The stock index is expected to continue to adjust in the short term, but the downside is limited, and the defensive index is expected to perform better [5]. - Treasury bonds are expected to maintain a short - term shock and have an upward space in the medium term [6]. Commodities Metals - Precious metals are expected to continue to adjust in the short term due to unclear December interest rate cut prospects, but will rise in the medium - long term [15]. - Copper prices are expected to recover after a decline, but the recovery is limited [18]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium - long term; alumina is bearish; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile at a high level [19]. - Zinc is expected to be under pressure and volatile [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak state, with limited further decline space, but the downside is greater than the upside [22]. - Tin is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. - Lead is under pressure due to inventory accumulation, but the supply - demand balance is gradually recovering [24]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be range - bound, with the risk of negative feedback increasing [28]. - Iron ore is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies after the basis is repaired [30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile at a low level in the short term, and suitable for long - positions in the medium - long term [33]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and weak demand [34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is expected to be range - bound at a low level in the short - medium term, with the risk of a corrective market after the positive factors fade [39]. - LPG is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern, but with high valuations [41]. - PX - PTA is expected to be strongly volatile with the cost side, but the PTA surplus expectation remains [46]. - MEG is expected to be short - sold on rallies, with the support at around 3700 [50]. - Methanol 01 is expected to continue to decline to find support [52]. - PP has enhanced cost support, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips in the short term [55]. - PE is expected to have limited downside and upside pressure, with a short - term improvement in the supply - demand pattern [58]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be range - bound, with limited rebound height [60]. - Fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be volatile at a low level with upward drivers [61][64]. - Asphalt is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to winter storage [66]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to be volatile, with a weak long - term demand outlook [70]. - Urea is expected to be range - bound, with short - term support from export policies and coal prices [71]. - Soda ash is expected to be range - bound, with cost support and high - level supply [72]. - Glass is expected to decline in the 01 contract but has cost support in the long term [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes Sino - Russian meetings, US employment data, Saudi - US investment, Fed chair selection, and overseas investor holdings of US Treasury bonds [1]. - Core logic focuses on the impact of the US government shutdown and Fed personnel changes overseas, and domestic economic slowdown and policy support [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Market review shows the decline of the on - shore RMB against the US dollar [3]. - Important information includes US employment data and Fed chair selection [3]. - Core logic indicates that the RMB is expected to be supported by weak US data and seasonal factors [3]. Stock Index - Market review shows the decline of the stock index and changes in trading volume [4][5]. - Important information includes US employment data [5]. - Core logic suggests that the stock index is in a game between policy expectations and profit - taking, with limited downside [5]. Treasury Bonds - Market review shows the rise of bond futures and tight capital [6]. - Important information includes US stock declines and Fed chair decision time [6]. - Core view indicates that bonds are expected to be volatile in the short term and rise in the medium term [6]. Container Shipping to Europe - Market review shows the decline of the container shipping index (European line) futures [7]. - Information includes supply - demand factors and geopolitical risks [8][9]. - Trading judgment suggests a weak and volatile trend, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals Gold & Silver - Market review shows the volatile consolidation of precious metals [12]. - Interest rate cut expectations and fund holdings show the change in expectations and stable holdings [13][14]. - This week's focus includes US economic data and Fed officials' speeches [14]. - View suggests short - term adjustment and medium - long - term rise [15]. Copper - Market review shows the decline of copper prices [16]. - Industry information includes inventory changes and import - export data [16][17]. - View suggests limited recovery of copper prices [18]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Market review shows the decline of aluminum - related prices [18][19]. - Core view indicates different trends for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [19]. Zinc - Market review shows the price of zinc [20]. - Core logic suggests that zinc is under pressure due to high - cost and low - demand [20]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market review shows the price of nickel and stainless steel [21]. - Market analysis indicates a weak trend and limited decline space [22]. Tin - Market review shows the price of tin [23]. - Core logic suggests high - level volatility and it is advisable to enter on dips [23]. Lead - Market review shows the price of lead [23]. - Core logic suggests pressure due to inventory and supply - demand balance recovery [23]. Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coils - Market review shows the impact of environmental inspections on steel prices [25]. - Core logic indicates the supply - demand situation and the risk of negative feedback [27]. - View suggests range - bound trading [28]. Iron Ore - Market information shows the price trend of iron ore and the impact of coking coal [29]. - View suggests shorting on rallies after basis repair [30]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market review shows low - level volatility [31]. - Information includes coal production and steel exports [32]. - Core logic and strategy suggest short - term adjustment and medium - long - term long - positions [33]. Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Market review shows the decline following coking coal [34]. - Core logic suggests high - inventory and weak - demand, with a weak and volatile trend [34]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Market dynamics show the rise of oil prices [37]. - Market news includes inventory changes and geopolitical events [38]. - View suggests short - medium - term range - bound trading and risk of correction [39]. LPG - Market dynamics show the price of LPG [40]. - Fundamental analysis indicates a relatively strong pattern with high valuations [41]. PTA - PX - Fundamental situation shows changes in supply, demand, and efficiency [42][43][44][45]. - View suggests strong volatility with the cost side and PTA surplus [46]. MEG - Bottle Chip - Inventory shows the increase in East China port inventory [47]. - Device information includes start - up and shutdown [47][48]. - Fundamental situation shows supply - demand and cost - profit changes [48][49][50]. - View suggests short - selling on rallies with support at 3700 [50]. Methanol - Market dynamics show the price of methanol [51]. - Inventory shows changes in port inventory [51]. - View suggests the decline of methanol 01 [52]. PP - Market dynamics show the price of PP [53]. - Fundamental analysis indicates enhanced cost support and short - term long - positions on dips [55]. PE - Market dynamics show the price of PE [56]. - Fundamental analysis suggests limited upside and downside with short - term improvement [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market review shows the price of pure benzene and styrene [59]. - Inventory shows changes in port and factory inventory [59]. - View suggests range - bound trading with limited rebound [60]. Fuel Oil - Market review shows the price of fuel oil [61]. - Industry performance shows supply - demand and inventory changes [61]. - Core logic suggests weakening cracking for high - sulfur and upward drivers for low - sulfur [61][64]. Asphalt - Market review shows the price of asphalt [65]. - Fundamental situation shows changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - View suggests short - term volatility and attention to winter storage [66]. Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Industry dynamics include production, export, and inventory data [67][68][69]. - Core view suggests weak long - term demand and short - term volatility [70]. Urea - Market dynamics show the price of urea [71]. - Inventory shows changes in production and inventory [71]. - View suggests range - bound trading with short - term support [71]. Soda Ash - Market dynamics show the price of soda ash [72]. - Fundamental information shows inventory changes [72]. - View suggests range - bound trading with cost support and high - level supply [72]. Glass - Market dynamics show the price of glass [73]. - Fundamental information shows inventory changes [73]. - View suggests decline in the 01 contract and long - term cost support [73].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - Overseas, focus on US economic data and the impact of the government shutdown; in China, pay attention to policy support due to a marginal slowdown in the economy [1]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen with the weakening of the US dollar index and seasonal effects, but caution is needed before new data is released [2]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate, with a focus on overseas variables such as US economic data, NVIDIA's Q3 earnings, and Sino - Japanese relations [5]. - Hold medium - term long positions in Treasury bonds, as they may benefit from weakening risk sentiment in the capital market, but short - term fluctuations are expected [5]. Commodities - Precious metals are expected to continue to adjust in the short term due to divergent expectations of a December interest rate cut, but may rise in the long term [13]. - Copper prices lack drivers and are expected to have a technical adjustment; aluminum may experience high - level oscillations; zinc, lead, and tin are expected to oscillate; nickel and stainless steel are at the bottom with limited further decline space; lithium carbonate may be over - inflated and risky for chasing highs; industrial silicon may have wide - range oscillations, and polysilicon may be weaker [17][18][24]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range, with support from raw material costs and suppression from inventory [29]. - Iron ore has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and opportunities for shorting at high levels can be considered after the basis is repaired [31]. - Coking coal and coke may face short - term adjustment pressure but have limited downside space in the long term, and can be considered for long positions when the price approaches the lower end of the range [34]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [36]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is in an oscillating and pressured state, with short - term attention on the support at $63 and long - term focus on geopolitical risks and macro - funds' hedging trends [38]. - LPG is expected to oscillate strongly; PX - PTA is expected to oscillate strongly with cost; MEG can be considered for selling call options to express a bearish view; methanol 01 may continue to decline; PP's short - term supply - demand situation has improved, and a 1 - 5 positive spread is supported; PE's short - term supply - demand has slightly improved, but the medium - long - term pattern is weak; pure benzene and styrene may have limited rebound height; fuel oil's high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking has upward momentum; asphalt's short - term bottom space is limited, and winter - storage willingness should be noted; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda have their own characteristics in terms of supply, demand, and price trends [39][41][49]. Pulp, Wood, and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper are expected to oscillate with a slightly downward - shifted price center; logs can be considered for a 01 - 03 reverse spread strategy; propylene is expected to oscillate [70][72][75]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Overseas: The US government shutdown has ended, and attention should be paid to economic data and the impact on the economy. Fed personnel changes have attracted market attention, and if Hassett is elected as the Fed chair, it may further open up the space for interest rate cuts. - Domestic: The economy shows a marginal slowdown, and the intensity and effectiveness of policy support are the focus [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the guidance of the central parity rate, and market settlement support. Attention should be paid to US employment data and domestic corporate settlement willingness [2]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated, with a decline in trading volume. The overall market sentiment was relatively stable, and short - term oscillations are expected, with a focus on overseas variables [5]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds rose slightly, and in the short term, they may continue to oscillate, while in the medium term, they may rise with fundamental support [5]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to adjust due to divergent expectations of a December interest rate cut. Long - term funds' gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings remained stable. Attention should be paid to US economic data and Fed officials' speeches [13]. Copper - Copper prices declined slightly, with an increase in warehouse receipts and a decrease in basis. The supply was relatively stable, and the demand showed some improvement, but the price lacked a clear driver [17]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices declined due to profit - taking by some funds. The supply was expected to be tight overseas, but domestic demand was weak. Alumina was in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy had certain support [18]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated narrowly. The smelting end had a strong demand for ore, and the TC decreased in November. The inventory situation needed to be observed, and the market had large differences between bulls and bears [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices were weak, with cost support weakening. The 12 - month interest rate cut expectation was uncertain, and the demand for nickel and stainless steel was weak [22]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated narrowly. The supply was weaker than the demand due to limited resumption of production in Wabang. It was recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly, but the downstream had no intention to replenish inventory. There was an over - inflation risk, and caution was needed when chasing highs [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon had a weak supply - demand pattern and was expected to oscillate widely. Polysilicon had a weak fundamental situation and was expected to oscillate weakly [25]. Lead - Lead prices were under pressure due to inventory accumulation. The supply was gradually returning to balance, and it was expected to oscillate [27]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded slightly, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of rebar and high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. The cost of iron ore was under pressure, and the profit of steel enterprises was declining [29]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded significantly, with an increase in shipping volume and a decrease in arrival volume. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. It was recommended to short at high levels after the basis was repaired [31]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices fell below the key support level. The supply of coking coal was marginally relaxed, and the demand was seasonally weak. However, the price had limited downside space in the long term [34]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded slightly due to environmental inspections, but the high - inventory situation remained unchanged. The demand was expected to decline, and they were expected to oscillate weakly [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices declined slightly, with a supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical risks. The price was expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at $63 [38]. LPG - LPG prices rose, with a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. The inventory was decreasing, and it was expected to oscillate strongly [40]. PX - PTA - PX - PTA prices rose, with a strengthening of the aromatics blending logic and an improvement in the supply - demand of PTA. The processing fee was repaired, but the oversupply expectation remained [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG prices rebounded due to supply - side accidents. The demand was relatively stable, and it was recommended to sell call options to express a bearish view [49]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to decline, with pressure on the 01 contract due to high supply and limited cost support. It was recommended to hold short positions and consider reverse spreads [51]. PP - PP prices oscillated at the bottom, with an increase in supply and a slight increase in demand. The cost support was strengthening, and a 1 - 5 positive spread was supported [54]. PE - PE prices rebounded slightly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth. The short - term supply - demand improved slightly, but the medium - long - term pattern was weak [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices rebounded at a low level, but the fundamentals did not change significantly, and the rebound height was limited [59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking was bearish due to weak demand, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking had upward momentum due to supply reduction expectations [60][63]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices fell, with an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The inventory structure improved, and the short - term bottom space was limited. Attention should be paid to winter - storage willingness [64]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices were limited by high supply and cost support; glass prices were under pressure due to high inventory and weak production and sales; caustic soda prices were affected by high supply and weak downstream replenishment [66][68][69]. Pulp, Wood, and Related Products Pulp and Offset Paper - Pulp prices were slightly affected by macro - sentiment and inventory, with some support from supply - side factors. Offset paper prices continued to decline due to lack of fundamental support [70]. Logs - Log prices were low - volatility, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity [72]. Propylene - Propylene prices oscillated, with a supply - demand balance of supply reduction and demand increase. The demand side was affected by PP and other downstream industries, and it was expected to oscillate [75].

金融期货早评 宏观：关注美国经济数据发布 【市场资讯】1）《求是》杂志发表中共中央总书记重要文章《因地制宜发展新质生产力》。 韩文秀《求是》署名文章：深刻领会因地制宜发展新质生产力的重要论述和决策部署。2） 李强主持召开国务院常务会议，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施。3） 财政部：有力有效实施积极的财政政策，坚持扩大内需，支持建设强大国内市场。4）吴清： 抓紧研究谋划"十五五"时期资本市场战略任务和重大举措，着力推动市场更具韧性、更加 稳健，制度更加包容、更具吸引力。5）中国公布 10 月经济数据，规模以上工业增加值同 比增 4.9%、社会消费品零售同比增 2.9%、1-10 月固定资产投资同比降 1.7%、房地产开发投 资同比降 14.7%，均不同程度不及 9 月；各线城市房价格环比同比下降，一线二手房价格 环比降幅收窄至 0.9%、同比跌幅扩大。6）中国市场监管总局公布《互联网平台反垄断合规 指引（征求意见稿）》，提出八类新型垄断风险场景。7）针对高市早苗发表台湾问题挑衅言 论，央视玉渊谭天称中方已做好对日实质反制准备，首次在中日外交场合提出"迎头痛击"； 文旅部提醒中国游客近期避免前往日 ...

Core Insights - The company has participated as a designated trader in the national futures (options) trading competition for the fourth consecutive year, showcasing its unique differentiated service capabilities as a bank-affiliated futures company [1][2]. Differentiated Development Strategy - The company integrates its "banking" gene into its development framework, leveraging the resources, funding advantages, risk control systems, and research capabilities of its parent bank, creating a comprehensive service system covering various financial instruments [1]. - The company has received multiple awards, including "Most Growth-Oriented Futures Company" and "Best Financial Futures Service Award," reflecting market recognition of its professional capabilities [1]. Talent Development and Asset Management - The competition serves as a platform to connect market participants and showcase the company's comprehensive service strength, while also identifying quality investment advisory resources for its asset management business [2]. - The company has introduced an innovative "in-competition" incentive mechanism, integrating educational courses and one-on-one advisory services to enhance client engagement [3]. - A whitelist of investment advisors and connections to asset management products are established to create professional development pathways for outstanding trading talents, enriching the company's asset management capabilities [3]. Risk Management Framework - The company has developed a comprehensive risk management system aligned with banking standards, utilizing a big data risk control platform for cross-market monitoring and tailored risk management solutions for different client groups [4]. - During market fluctuations, the company emphasizes high-leverage and high-frequency trading monitoring, employing digital tools to interpret unexpected events and establish a complete risk management chain [4]. Technological Empowerment - The company has built a full-chain technology empowerment system, supporting mainstream trading interfaces and providing advanced tools such as AI research and high-speed market data [5][6]. - The company is exploring how banking technology resources can be applied in the futures sector to address long-standing efficiency challenges, transitioning from experience-driven to data-driven trading [6]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The company anticipates a shift in the domestic futures market from scale expansion to functional deepening, with an increasing proportion of institutional investors and greater roles for AI technology in trading and risk management [7]. - The company encourages ordinary investors to leverage the comprehensive financial services of bank-affiliated futures companies, integrating futures into their overall asset allocation framework for stable returns [7].

金融期货早评 宏观：美国政府结束关门在望 【市场资讯】1）国办发文提出 13 项措施进一步促进民间投资，扩大准入、打通堵点、强 化保障。2）中国两部门：优化论证新能源配置及送出消纳方案，促进"沙戈荒"新能源基地 实现规模化就地消纳。3）美国政府关门或再持续数天，参院关键程序性投票通过临时拨款 法案后还要走完程序，众院何时表决未定。4）媒体称美国接近将 39%瑞士关税砍到 15%， 特朗普称设法略降瑞士关税，接近达成协议降低印度关税。5）特朗普"钦点"的美联储理事 米兰：政府关门不会影响我对美国经济的看法，12 月应降息 50 基点。6）私营行业数据： 美国 10 月消费品价格涨幅三个月来首次放缓。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，物价指数边际回升，其背后更多受低基数效应、反内卷等因素驱 动。出口同比增速受基数扰动回落显著，在出口对经济的拉动作用边际放缓的背景下，提 振内需或将成为后续政策的重要发力方向。上周海外市场核心看点集中于流动性阶段性紧 张、美国政府超长停摆及美元指数反弹三大方面。目前美国政府停摆有望终结：参院关键 程序性投票通过临时拨款法案后还要走完程序，众院何时表决未定。若相关程序顺利推进， 美国政府最早或于 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Market Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is officially released, guiding future focus areas. Sino-US economic and trade teams reach a phased consensus in Kuala Lumpur, reducing tariff policy disturbances and boosting market risk appetite [2]. - The manufacturing PMI declines marginally, indicating weakening supply and demand, and the economy still needs policy support. Overseas, after the US interest rate cut, the focus shifts to employment and inflation during the US government shutdown [2]. - The US "small non-farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations, with stagnant wage growth and marginal stabilization in employment [2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1219 on November 6, up 27 points from the previous trading day [3]. - It is expected that the US dollar against the RMB spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. The key technical level of 7.10 is crucial for short - term exchange rate trends [4]. Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index closed up collectively in the previous trading day, with the CSI 300 index rising 1.43%. The trading volume in the two markets rebounded by 18.2906 billion yuan [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate due to intensified external disturbances and increased sensitivity to external risks in the domestic market [5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - On Thursday, medium - and long - term treasury bond futures declined, while short - term bonds stabilized. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32% [5]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate, and if the bond market corrects due to the rumored public fund fee new regulations, it may present a buying opportunity [6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (Europe Line) - On November 6, the container shipping index (Europe line) futures market closed down across the board, with the main contract EC2512 performing weakly. The shipping futures led the decline, with the container shipping index (Europe line) falling 3.91% [8]. - Short - term container shipping futures for the Europe line are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, driven by the game between the expectation of Red Sea route resumption and spot demand [10]. Group 6: Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate and consolidate. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [12]. - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost precious metal prices, but in the short - term, it is in an adjustment phase. In November, it is difficult to have strong drivers [15]. Group 7: Copper - Overnight, Comex copper closed at $4.97 per pound, up 0.19%; LME copper closed at $10687 per ton, down 0.1%; SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,690 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [16]. - When the copper price falls to around 85,000 yuan per ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases significantly, but whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation [17]. Group 8: Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 21,665 yuan per ton, up 1.29% month - on - month; LME aluminum closed at $2843 per ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [18]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina prices are expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [20][21]. Group 9: Zinc - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 22,675 yuan per ton. The price of zinc is expected to be strongly volatile, with sufficient bottom support in November [21]. Group 10: Tin - The main contract of SHFE tin closed at 283,400 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with a stable resistance level at 290,000 yuan [21]. Group 11: Lead - The main contract of SHFE lead closed at 17,430 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level due to supply shortages [23]. Group 12: Black Metals - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the anti - dumping investigation of hot - rolled steel sheets may put pressure on far - month contracts. Hot - rolled coil inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to abundant supply and weak demand. There are opportunities to short at high prices after valuation repair [27][28]. - Coking coal and coke are in short supply in the spot market, and long - short spreads are strengthening. In the short term, prices may face adjustment, and in the long term, they are suitable for long positions in the black metal sector [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate due to high inventory and weak demand, with support from the cost side [30][31]. Group 13: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors as potential upward risks, and will be suppressed by fundamentals in the long term [33][34]. - LPG prices are expected to fluctuate, with unclear short - term drivers and a lack of upward momentum [35][36]. - PX - PTA prices are expected to be relatively strongly volatile. PX is expected to maintain a relatively strong position, and PTA may have support below a processing fee of 230 on the disk [37][39]. - MEG - bottle chip prices are expected to rebound slightly following the cost of coal in the short term, with an expected trading range of 3750 - 4150 [40][42]. - PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43][45]. - PE prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to large supply pressure and weak demand support [46][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are likely to be weak, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [49][50]. - Fuel oil prices' high - sulfur cracking is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to taking profits. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices' fundamentals are improving [51][53]. - Asphalt prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm [54][55]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be limited in upward movement due to high - supply expectations and cost support. Glass prices may face downward pressure in the 01 contract but have cost support and policy expectations in the long term. Caustic soda prices may face market pressure as production recovers [56][59]. Group 14: Pulp and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to be relatively volatile in the short term. Pulp prices are supported by raw material price increases, and offset paper prices are supported by cost factors [60][61]. Group 15: Logs - Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The current main strategy is to short at high prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the 01 - 03 spread in the medium - to long - term [62][63]. Group 16: Propylene - Propylene prices are expected to remain weak due to a loose supply situation and weak terminal demand [64][65]. Group 17: Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be supported by improving demand during the peak season. Long - term strategic bullishness is possible, but short - to medium - term focus is on fundamentals [66]. - Oilseed prices' upward trend is delayed. Imported soybeans' buying sentiment is reduced, and domestic soybean meal has a high inventory. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [67][68]. - Edible oil prices are waiting for opportunities after negative factors are exhausted. Palm oil has supply pressure, soybean oil has inventory pressure but cost support, and rapeseed oil supply concerns remain [69]. - Soybean No. 1 prices are recommended for short - term observation. The market has entered a bullish trend, and short positions should be avoided [71]. - Corn and starch prices show signs of upward breakthrough, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in the external market [72][73].

金融期货早评 宏观：关注美国就业数据 【市场资讯】1）中国财政部长蓝佛安：将不新增隐性债务作为"铁的纪律"。2）美国就业 市场降温信号显现：今年企业裁员人数创 2020 年以来新高。3）美国 10 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 不升反降至 48.7%，连续八个月萎缩，需求和就业疲软，通胀降温；欧元区 10 月制造 业 PMI 终值 50，德、法持续萎缩，新订单疲软拖累复苏进程。4）美联储理事米兰：美联 储政策过于紧缩，应通过一系列 50 基点降息实现中性利率；美联储理事库克被特朗普起 诉以来首次公开讲话：还没就 12 月降息做决定。5）美国财政部将本季借款预期规模下调 210 亿美元至 5690 亿，因手头现金余额超预期充裕。6）美国政府停摆影响航空安全，美 国交通部长：如有必要将关闭全国领空。 【核心逻辑】"十五五" 规划建议稿正式发布，可依据规划建议稿明确的重点领域，锁定未 来核心关注方向。同时，中美经贸团队于吉隆坡磋商达成阶段性共识，将在未来一年内减 弱关税政策对市场的扰动，边际提升市场风险偏好，推动相关资产逐步回归基本面定价。 中美贸易摩擦本质上是一场持久战，矛盾的缓和需要时间积累，难以通过单次磋商实现 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft provides future focus directions, and the Sino-US economic and trade consultation has reached a phased consensus, but the long - term game remains. The manufacturing PMI has declined marginally, and the economy needs policy support. Overseas, the Fed has cut interest rates with internal differences, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is in a tug - of - war around 7.10. Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal, and it is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week [3][4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly due to a dull news environment. Treasury bonds suggest holding medium - term long positions. The container shipping European line is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [7][8][13]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and copper's 12 - month contract has reached its high. Aluminum is expected to be in high - level fluctuations, and alumina may be in weak fluctuations [18][21][23]. - Zinc is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations, and nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. Tin is in high - level fluctuations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state [26][29][30]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. Lead is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Steel products are expected to be in an oscillating adjustment. Iron ore has limited upward space, and coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [37][40][41]. - Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand. Crude oil is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range this week [42][46]. - LPG is affected by cost. PX - PTA is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, and MEG is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations and maintain a short - position allocation [48][52][55]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and PP and PE are in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in low - level fluctuations [57][61][64]. - Fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening. Asphalt's basis is weakening [68][69][72]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - China's October official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates with internal differences, and Powell's hawkish speech reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal. It is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week, and the key technical point around 7.10 is the focus of the battle between bulls and bears [3][4]. Stock Index - Last Friday, most stock indexes fell except for the CSI 1000. Short - term news is dull, and it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bonds rose significantly. The central bank's stance on supporting monetary policy and resuming secondary - market bond purchases improved market expectations. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [7][8]. Container Shipping European Line - There are both positive and negative factors. The contract price is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the 1800 - 1900 point range. Trend traders can wait, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread between EC2512 and EC2602 [10][11][13]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals continued to adjust. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term is in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15][16][18]. Copper - The 12 - month contract of copper has reached its high. In November, the market focuses on the 1 - month contract. If the December interest - rate cut expectation increases, there may be an upward impulse [19][21]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is affected by macro - policies and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations. Alumina is in a supply - surplus state and may be in weak fluctuations. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations [23][24][25]. Zinc - Zinc prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. There is an upward drive in November, and it is recommended to wait and see exports and the macro - situation [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. The 12 - month interest - rate cut expectation is uncertain, and the Sino - US tariff situation is changeable [27][29]. Tin - Tin prices are in high - level fluctuations, mainly affected by the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [30]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state in the 74000 - 85000 yuan/ton range, affected by supply and demand factors [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to be cautious when investing in polycrystalline silicon [33][34][35]. Lead - Lead prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. It is recommended to use option double - selling strategies to earn option premiums [36]. Steel Products - Steel products are in an oscillating adjustment. The follow - up apparent demand needs to be improved, and it is affected by raw material costs and the macro - environment [37]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a situation of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". It is recommended to short at high levels after valuation repair [38][39][40]. Coking Coal and Coke - Downstream coking plants and steel mills are actively replenishing inventory. Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [41]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand. After the macro - sentiment fades, they are expected to oscillate [42]. Crude Oil - Last week, crude oil was in a sideways adjustment. This week, it is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range, and it is difficult to break through [44][46]. LPG - LPG is affected by cost. The domestic fundamental support is relatively limited, and it is mainly affected by the cost side [47][48]. PX - PTA - PTA's price has rebounded due to the "anti - involution" rumor and improved fundamentals. It is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, but the surplus expectation remains [49][50][52]. MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol's demand has improved marginally, but the valuation is under pressure due to the inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to short at high levels [53][54][55]. Methanol - Methanol 01 may continue to decline due to the delay of the Iranian gas - restriction expectation [56][57]. PP - PP is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally relieve, and it is expected to be weak [59][61]. PE - PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes [63][64]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to be weak due to the expected inventory accumulation. Styrene has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to short after a rebound [66][67]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening due to improved fundamentals [68][69]. Asphalt - Asphalt's basis is weakening. The short - term is affected by external disturbances, and the long - term demand in the south may be boosted [70][72].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Macroeconomics and Financial Futures - The GDP growth rate in Q3 declined as expected, but the pressure to achieve the annual target is controllable. The GDP deflator shows a recovery trend, and its sustainability is worth noting. Fiscal policies are clearly发力 to support the economy, and the subsequent pace of domestic demand repair is crucial. The stock market reacted positively after the release of the communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and the stock index may perform according to historical patterns [2]. - Optimistic expectations for Sino-US trade negotiations have increased market risk appetite, which is beneficial for the RMB to appreciate against the US dollar. The central bank's guidance on the exchange rate is also a key factor. The key to the subsequent market trend lies in the Fed's interest rate meeting. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [4]. - The policy orientation of the speech at the opening ceremony of the Financial Street Forum Annual Conference on capital market reform is clear, but the implementation path focuses on gradualism, so it has limited impact on the A-share market in the short term. The stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly under the game between policy利好 expectations and the willingness of profitable funds to take profits [5]. Bond Market - The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading operations has a strong signal meaning, which consolidates the market bottom and is conducive to the improvement of expectations. The bond market is expected to have a callback in the short term, but there is upward momentum in the fourth quarter [6]. Shipping - The container shipping to Europe route futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and geopolitical factors provide support at the bottom. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread fluctuations between near and far contracts [10]. Commodities Precious Metals - Although in the medium and long term, central bank gold purchases and the growth of investment demand will continue to push up the price center of precious metals, they are currently in an adjustment stage. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips in the medium term, and continue to hold the bottom position of previous long positions cautiously [14]. Base Metals - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock consolidation. Speculators can enter the market to go long on dips near 86000±500. Downstream enterprises can adopt a combination strategy of "selling put options + buying futures on dips" [16]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong, while alumina is expected to be weak, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. Zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate strongly. Tin is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long. Lithium carbonate is expected to be supported by demand. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely. Lead is expected to fluctuate mainly, and it is recommended to sell both call and put options to earn option premiums [16][18][20][22][23][24][26][27] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium and long term. LPG is expected to fluctuate. PTA - PX is expected to decline slightly with oil prices. MEG is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - mood. Methanol's 01 contract pressure increases. PP and PE are expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be affected by macro - trends and oil prices. Fuel oil's cracking upside is limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil's upward drive is limited. Asphalt is waiting for short - selling opportunities. Urea is expected to face pressure after the rebound. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda's production and sales have improved [34][36][39][41][45][48][49][50][51][53] Building Materials and Paper - Soda ash is expected to be limited in upward space due to high - level supply and cost support. Glass is expected to continue to observe the sustainability of improved production and sales. Caustic soda is expected to be affected by short - term maintenance and long - term production pressure. Pulp and offset paper are expected to be affected by paper mill price increases and macro - mood. Logs are expected to have limited downward space in the short term [53][54][55][56][57] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics and Financial Futures - **Market Information**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal emphasizes key core technology research, the "AI +" action, and boosting consumption. The trade situation eases, and the gold ETF has the largest single - day reduction in six months. The "small non - farm" ADP releases weekly employment data, and Trump may influence the Fed's decision - making. The US and Japan and South Korea have relevant cooperation agreements [1][3][5] - **Market Review**: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose, and the stock index opened lower and fluctuated. The trading volume of the two markets decreased, and the futures index had different volume and price performances [3][5] Bond Market - **Market Review**: Bond futures opened higher and closed up, and the end - of - month liquidity was tight [6] - **Core Logic**: The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading operations led to a sharp decline in spot bond yields, and bond futures made up for the increase. The market is expected to have a callback in the short term but upward momentum in the fourth quarter [6] Shipping - **Market Review**: The container shipping to Europe route futures traded lightly and fluctuated narrowly, and investors focused on geopolitical situations [7] - **Information Sorting**: There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduced expectation of Red Sea resumption and the resilience of the Chinese economy. Negative factors include uncertain macro - demand and the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate [8][9] Commodities Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Precious metal prices continued to adjust, showing a V - shaped trend during the day [12] - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings**: The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the holdings of gold and silver ETFs and inventories have changed [13] - **This Week's Focus**: Pay attention to US economic data and central bank interest rate meetings [14] Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: Copper prices in different markets had different performances, and the basis and cross - border ratio changed [15] - **Industry Information**: Copper inventories in different exchanges changed, and the copper consumption in the real estate industry declined [15][16] - **Core Logic**: Spot prices and premiums weakened, and the trading volume was light. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock [16] - **Aluminum and Its Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: Aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy prices had different changes [17] - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong due to positive macro - factors and overseas supply disturbances. Alumina is expected to be weak due to over - supply, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to follow aluminum prices [17][18][19] - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fluctuated at a high level [19] - **Core Logic**: The external market is supported by low inventories, and the domestic market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock [20] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: Nickel and stainless steel prices declined [20] - **Market Analysis**: They were affected by the overall weakness of the metal market, and the cost support of nickel iron loosened. Stainless steel may face production cuts [20][21][22] - **Tin** - **Market Review**: Tin prices fluctuated strongly [22] - **Core Logic**: The supply is weaker than demand, and tin prices are expected to be bullish [22] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: Lithium carbonate futures prices declined slightly, and the trading volume and open interest increased [23] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain was active, and prices rose [23] - **Core Logic**: The demand is good, and the price is expected to be supported [23][24] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined slightly, and the trading volume and open interest changed [24][25] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the industrial silicon industry chain was average, and the photovoltaic industry was stable [25][26] - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly, and polysilicon's fundamentals are weak [24][26] - **Lead** - **Market Review**: Lead prices fluctuated and declined [26] - **Industry Performance**: Lead battery enterprises plan to cut production [27] - **Core Logic**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [27] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Crude oil prices declined significantly [33] - **Market Dynamics**: API data shows changes in US oil inventories, and there are statements from relevant companies and countries [33] - **Core Logic**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium and long term [34] - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG prices fluctuated [34] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price and inventory of LPG changed [34] - **Core Logic**: LPG is expected to fluctuate in the short term [36] - **PTA - PX** - **Fundamental Situation**: PX and PTA's supply, inventory, and efficiency have changed, and the polyester demand is stable [37][38] - **Core Logic**: PTA is expected to decline slightly with oil prices, and the processing fee needs to be repaired [37][38][39] - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Inventory and Devices**: MEG's inventory and device operation status changed [39] - **Fundamental Situation**: MEG's supply, demand, and efficiency have changed, and the polyester demand is stable [39][40] - **Core Logic**: MEG is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - mood, and the downward space is limited [40][41] - **Methanol** - **Market Dynamics**: Methanol 01 contract price and basis changed [41] - **Inventory**: Methanol port inventory changed [41] - **Core Logic**: Methanol's 01 contract pressure increases [41][42][43] - **PP** - **Market Dynamics**: PP prices declined [43] - **Fundamental Situation**: PP's supply, demand, and inventory have changed, and it is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [44][45] - **Core Logic**: PP is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern [44][45] - **PE** - **Market Dynamics**: PE prices declined [46] - **Fundamental Situation**: PE's supply, demand, and inventory have changed, and it is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [47][48] - **Core Logic**: PE is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern [47][48] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Pure benzene and styrene prices declined [48] - **Inventory Situation**: Pure benzene and styrene port and factory inventories changed [48] - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene is expected to be weak, and styrene's upward drive is limited [49] - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices closed at a certain level [49] - **Industry Performance**: Fuel oil's supply, demand, and inventory have changed [49] - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking upside is limited [49] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices closed at a certain level [50] - **Industry Performance**: Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply, demand, and inventory have changed [50] - **Core Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil's upward drive is limited [50] - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices closed at a certain level [50] - **Fundamental Situation**: Asphalt's supply, demand, and inventory have changed [50][51] - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is waiting for short - selling opportunities [51] - **Urea** - **Market Dynamics**: Urea prices closed at a certain level [51] - **Spot Feedback**: Urea's spot price and inventory changed [51] - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to face pressure after the rebound [52][53] Building Materials and Paper - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Dynamics**: Soda ash price declined slightly [53] - **Fundamental Information**: Soda ash inventory changed [53] - **Core Logic**: Soda ash is expected to be limited in upward space [53] - **Glass** - **Market Dynamics**: Glass price rose [54] - **Fundamental Information**: Glass inventory increased [54] - **Core Logic**: Observe the sustainability of glass's improved production and sales [54] - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Dynamics**: Caustic soda price declined slightly [55] - **Fundamental Information**: Caustic soda inventory decreased [55] - **Core Logic**: Caustic soda is affected by short - term maintenance and long - term production pressure [55][56] - **Pulp and Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: Pulp and offset paper prices fluctuated [56] - **Spot Market**: Pulp and offset paper's spot price and inventory changed [56] - **Core Logic**: Pulp and offset paper are affected by paper mill price increases and macro - mood [56] - **Logs** - **Market**: Log prices and inventory changed [57] - **Core Contradiction**: Logs are undervalued, and there is a possibility of price repair [57] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider short - term short - selling and long - term short - selling strategies [57][58] - **Propylene** - **Market Dynamics**: Propylene prices declined [58] - **Core Logic**: Propylene is expected to fluctuate [58]