Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic recovery in Q1 is evident, with the March PMI returning to the expansion range, but there are still structural contradictions and risks from geopolitical conflicts [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience [3]. - The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but remains volatile due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [6]. - The container shipping market for European routes is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [9]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic policies, and their trends vary [11][12][16][22][26][30][36][40][55][59][65] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: In January - February, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 2.0%. The situation in the Middle East is tense, with the US and Iran having complex interactions. The central bank's monetary policy committee held its Q1 meeting, and Japan warned about the yen's decline. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI all returned to the expansion range [1]. - **South China's Viewpoint**: China's economic recovery is certain, but there are structural problems and risks from geopolitical conflicts. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience. The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but volatile. The bond market is expected to remain volatile [2][3][5][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.85 [4]. Commodities New Energy - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of the main contract decreased by 8.40% day - on - day. The downstream enterprises maintain a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices. In the short - term, price fluctuations are large due to macro - level factors, but the long - term demand growth logic remains unchanged [11]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The silicon - based industrial chain is under pressure. Industrial silicon fluctuates widely between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and polysilicon is still in a downward channel but with a narrowing decline [12][13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The domestic and foreign aluminum markets show a pattern of "strong aluminum and weak alumina". The macro - environment and fundamentals are in a game, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate within a range [16][17][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounds due to the possible easing of the war situation. The market shows a pattern of "external strength and internal weakness", and the price is affected by multiple factors such as inventory and supply [18][19][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level [22]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [22][23][24]. - **Tin**: The tin price rebounds and then enters a wait - and - see state. The main contradiction lies in the macro - level, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [24]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [25]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The USDA planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area is unexpectedly reduced, which supports the external market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired [26][27]. - **Oils**: The Indonesian government's B50 policy is expected to be implemented, which boosts the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories are sufficient but in a de - stocking trend, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [27][28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The crude oil price drops due to the news of a possible cease - fire. The market is affected by multiple factors, and there is still great uncertainty [30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakens, and the low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium drops significantly. The shortage of blending components still supports the price [31][32]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is reduced, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to position control [32][33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium are oscillating strongly. The market is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed monetary policy, and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [36][37]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rise strongly. The market is affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, Fed monetary policy, and economic data. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [37][38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is affected by geopolitical factors and inventory. The offset paper futures price is relatively stable. It is recommended to trade pulp futures in the short - term and try low - buying strategies for offset paper [40][41]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is supported by the expected geopolitical premium and the slowdown of inventory accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound and strong trend [42][43]. - **PP and Propylene**: The prices of PP and propylene are affected by the Middle East situation and supply - demand relationships. The supply is expected to be reduced, and the demand is limited. The prices are expected to be supported [43][44][46]. - **Plastic**: The plastic price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. The supply is tightened, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [47]. - **Rubber**: The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber are rising. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical impacts [48][51][52]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is under pressure, and the demand is relatively stable. The inventory performance is better than expected. The price is expected to be affected by supply - demand relationships and macro - factors [55][56]. - **Glass**: The glass market is affected by factors such as cold - repair expectations, high inventory, and cost. The price is expected to be limited by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to macro - and emotional factors [58]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is supported by the cost of furnace materials, but the high inventory and weak supply - demand limit the upward space. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited height [59][60]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported by cost and spot tightness in the short - term but is suppressed by demand and supply increment expectations in the long - term [61]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price drops due to weak market sentiment and over - valuation. The supply is abundant, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to have limited downward space after risk release [62][63]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fall back. The cost support logic still exists, and silicon manganese may be stronger than silicon iron [63][64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The pig price continues to bottom out. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract or be bearish on the far - month contracts [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The expected US cotton planting area is higher than expected. The new - season global supply is expected to decrease, but the inflation in the US and the high domestic - foreign cotton price spread may limit the price. The short - term price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [66][67]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to be in a short - term oscillation pattern due to the tense Middle East situation and cautious market sentiment [67][69]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to be stable and slightly strong before the festival, with limited upward space. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract [69]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price is expected to be strongly oscillating, supported by the scarcity of delivery products in the 05 contract [78]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as inventory and oil mill demand [79][80][81]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation and bottom - building pattern due to the loose supply - demand relationship [80][82]. - **Logs**: The log futures price falls due to the easing of geopolitical sentiment. The price is supported by factors such as inventory consumption and stable import costs, and it is recommended to trade in the range [82][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The core pricing lines of the global market in 2026 are as follows: Overseas, the "Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)" balance between the US and Iran restricts the escalation of the conflict, but the secondary inflation risk from oil prices is reversing the global liquidity expectations, and the Fed's policy path is becoming more divergent. Domestically, Chinese assets have a triple safety premium, but the A-share market is still in a risk release stage. The core investment strategy in 2026 is "defense and counterattack" [2]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: News drives the market. Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts. The situation in the US - Iran conflict is complex, with Trump claiming progress in negotiations while Iran denying it [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Trump's claim of progress in US - Iran dialogue led to a drop in the US dollar index, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. Short - term export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy [3]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell due to liquidity shocks and geopolitical uncertainties. With the easing signal of the Middle East situation, the stock index may rebound, but the trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the sharp fall of the A - share market, the bond market may rebound. It is recommended to use grid operations, sell high - position long orders in a timely manner, and gradually build long positions if the price continues to fall [6]. - **Container Shipping (Europe Line)**: The futures market is in a high - level volatile state, with a game between geopolitical emotions and the off - season fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term [7][9][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. In the medium and long term, the demand for lithium carbonate in downstream industries still has a strong support [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: It is affected by the callback cycle of the non - ferrous metal sector. In the long run, the demand for these two products will improve as the photovoltaic industry develops [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp fall, the copper price rebounded. It is recommended to pay attention to the upper pressure when the price rebounds. If it fails to break through with heavy volume, the market may be volatile [17][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It was affected by systematic risks and rebounded slightly at night. It is expected to be weak in the short term due to inventory and macro factors [20]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel showed certain resilience. The supply of sulfur in the nickel industry chain is affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and there is a game between supply and macro - level factors [21][22]. - **Tin**: It followed the sector down and rebounded at night. It is expected to be weak in the short term and the long - term center of gravity may move upward [23]. - **Lead**: It oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory operation under the pressure of inventory accumulation and cost support [24]. Oils and Fats & Feed - **Oilseeds**: The relaxation of Brazil's quarantine process affected the market. It is recommended to enter the market for reverse arbitrage between monthly spreads [25][26]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils fluctuated with crude oil. It is necessary to focus on the biofuel policies of Indonesia and the US this week [27]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **SC Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped sharply due to Trump's remarks. The negotiation situation is uncertain, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate between $80 - 120 [29][30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was dragged down by weak demand. The market's strength slowed down, but the price decline space is limited [32]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances are the core factors. The supply of asphalt is reduced, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to combination strategies [33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They continued to decline under pressure. It is recommended to maintain a strategic long - position view on precious metals, and pay attention to position control [35][36][37]. - **Gold & Silver**: They had a V - shaped reversal. It is recommended to maintain a strategic long - position view, and they may oscillate at a low level in the short term [38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp spot price rose, and the market is expected to be neutral in the short term. Both pulp and offset paper futures can maintain interval trading [41][42]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The market fluctuated due to the changeable attitude of the US. They are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the geopolitical situation is uncertain [43][44]. - **LPG**: The futures price rose sharply due to capital emotions. The market is expected to return to the fundamental logic, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [45][46][47]. - **Methanol**: The price was affected by the Iran - US situation. It is recommended to conduct a 5 - 6 reverse arbitrage and a 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [49]. - **PP & Propylene**: The night - session price fell due to the news of US - Iran negotiations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51][52]. - **Plastic**: The night - session price fell with the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53][54][55]. - **Rubber**: Synthetic rubber fluctuated greatly, and natural rubber rose slightly. Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain a strong wide - range shock, and natural rubber is expected to oscillate and stabilize [61][62]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a high supply pressure, and glass is restricted by supply recovery expectations and high intermediate inventories [63][64][65]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The cost of raw materials supports the steel price, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the upward space. The short - term price may rebound, but the height is limited [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported in the short term but is under pressure in the medium and long term [68][69]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increase is mainly due to market expectations. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and consider short - selling near - month contracts lightly if the price rises to a certain range [70]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are supported by cost and oscillate strongly. The impact of the hurricane on manganese ore production areas needs attention [70][71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to sell the call options of the main contract [73]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has support below. It is necessary to pay attention to the export situation of US cotton [73][74][75]. - **Sugar**: The short - term sugar price may maintain an oscillatory pattern [76][77]. - **Eggs**: The egg price rebounded. It is recommended to sell the call options of the main contract [78]. - **Apples**: The futures market is driven by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the 05 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern [85][86]. - **Peanuts**: The futures price may fall if the Middle East situation eases. It is recommended to short lightly [87][88]. - **Red Dates**: The price may oscillate at a low level due to sufficient supply and weak demand [89]. - **Logs**: The spot price is firm, and the inventory is consumed. It is recommended to hold long positions in the early stage, reduce long - position holdings, and use interval trading and short - term short - selling strategies [90][91].

I. Overall Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. II. Core Viewpoints - The current global market's core pricing line is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, leading to a "Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)" situation overseas, while in China, assets have a triple - safety premium. The core investment strategy in 2026 is defensive counter - attack, and blindly following the 2025 investment ideas will face significant risks [2]. - Various industries are influenced by the US - Iran conflict, Fed policies, and seasonal factors, with different trends and investment opportunities [2][5][7]. III. Summary by Industry 1. Financial Futures Macro - The US - Iran deadlock may enter a critical change period. The central bank will maintain liquidity, and the situation in Iran involves multiple measures and responses, including the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - The global market is influenced by the US - Iran conflict, with the risk of secondary inflation from oil price shocks reversing global liquidity expectations. The Fed's policy path is changing, and A - shares are in a risk - release stage [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - After the global central bank meetings, the market's hawkish expectations have risen. The US dollar index may remain strong in the short - term, but its upward space is limited. The RMB exchange rate may fluctuate within a range [3]. - Short - term strategies suggest that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.85 level [3]. Stock Index - The stock index was affected by external disturbances last week, with a decline in major indices. The short - term is expected to continue to adjust, but the long - term basis is strong [5]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bonds showed a bottom - hunting and rebounding trend, but weakened on Friday. The short - term strategy is grid operation, and low - position long positions can be sold at high prices [6]. 2. Commodities New Energy - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of carbonate lithium futures decreased last week. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, with long - term demand support [13][14]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon decreased this week. The current market has a supply - demand imbalance, but the long - term development logic is clear [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price of aluminum is affected by geopolitics and concerns about economic recession and liquidity. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Alumina has a mixed fundamental situation, and casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of aluminum [19][20]. - **Copper**: The copper price fell last week. In the short - term, it will continue to be weak, and long - term opportunities can be considered. Industrial customers can focus on low - price restocking, and speculative customers can use short - selling and long - buying strategies [21][24]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has support at the lower end of the price range, but is affected by inventory and the macro - environment, and is expected to be weak in the short - term [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel fluctuated this week, following the macro - guidance. The fundamentals are in a game state, and the short - term trend is uncertain [27][28]. - **Tin**: The tin price is under pressure from both the macro - environment and fundamentals, with a short - term weak trend and a long - term upward trend [28][29]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [30]. 3. Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of oilseeds fell, and the domestic market followed. The supply of imported soybeans is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal inventory is decreasing. The rapeseed meal has a demand recovery expectation, but also faces supply pressure [31]. - The strategy is to exit the positive spread between monthly contracts [31]. Oils - The supply pressure of Malaysian palm oil has eased, and the market is waiting for the progress of bio - fuel policies. The domestic oil inventory is different, and the short - term is expected to fluctuate [32]. 4. Energy and Oil and Gas SC - The oil price is oscillating at a high level, with upward driving factors due to the continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz [34][36]. Fuel Oil - The Asian fuel oil market has a short - term correction, but the supply gap will support the spot premium and refinery profits in the short - term [37]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is affected by geopolitical disturbances, with supply reduction and weak demand. The short - term is difficult to reverse, and investors should control positions and consider hedging strategies [38]. 5. Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - The prices of platinum and palladium fell last week. The core drivers include Fed policies, geopolitical situations, and supply - side factors. The strategy is to be bullish in the long - term and pay attention to position control [40][44]. Gold & Silver - The prices of gold and silver fell due to the reversal of interest - rate hike expectations. The strategy is to be bullish in the long - term, and pay attention to support levels and risk factors [46][48]. 6. Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp spot price followed the futures price to rise. The short - term market is expected to be neutral. The offset paper futures are affected by pulp prices and are expected to fluctuate in a range [50][52]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene follow the cost - end and are expected to be strong in the short - term, but the geopolitical situation is uncertain, and risks should be noted [53][54]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose, showing an internal - strong and external - weak, futures - strong and spot - weak pattern. The short - term is expected to be in a high - level shock, and the risk of price correction should be vigilant [55][57]. Methanol - The methanol futures price soared. The supply is affected by the Iranian situation, and the strategy is to consider the 5 - 6 reverse spread and 9 - 1 positive spread [58][59]. PP & Propylene - The prices of PP and propylene are expected to be strong in the short - term, with supply support and demand pressure [60][63]. Plastic - The plastic market has a supply - demand imbalance. The supply is expected to decrease, but the spot pressure is increasing. The short - term is expected to be strong if the conflict continues [64][65]. Rubber - The synthetic rubber price rose, and the natural rubber was boosted. The short - term is affected by geopolitical and macro - factors, with a long - term stable trend. Strategies include long - buying at low prices and arbitrage [67][69]. Glass & Soda Ash - Soda ash has high production and stable demand, with limited price space. Glass has a cold - repair expectation and high inventory, and the demand needs to be verified [70][72]. 7. Black Metals Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - The steel price is supported by raw material costs, but is affected by inventory and demand. The short - term is expected to rebound, but the height is limited [73][74]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is supported by cost and tight spot supply, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The strategy is to be long in the near - term and short in the far - term [77][79]. Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are supported by costs, and the impact of the Australian hurricane on manganese ore needs to be noted [80][81]. 8. Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig futures price fell. The current supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the strategy is to sell call options on the main contract [83]. Cotton - The cotton price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and import policies. The short - term has support, and the long - term demand is resilient [83][85]. Sugar - The sugar price is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term due to the geopolitical situation and cautious capital sentiment [86][87]. Eggs - The egg price rebounded. The short - term is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment, and the strategy is to sell call options on the main contract [87]. Apples - The apple futures price is strong, driven by fundamentals and delivery logic. The 05 contract is expected to be strong in the short - term [91]. Peanuts - The peanut market is in a supply - demand weak situation. The price is affected by the macro - situation of the oils and fats and oilseeds sector [92][94]. Red Dates - The red date price is in a narrow - range shock, with limited driving factors and pressure on the upside [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January - February 2026, China's economy achieved a robust start, with core economic indicators exceeding expectations. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern has begun to reverse. The production side showed excellent performance, and the demand side's recovery momentum was also beyond expectations. However, there are still core short - boards in economic recovery, such as weak consumption of large - scale durable goods like cars and low real - estate sales [2]. - The conflict in the Persian Gulf continues to escalate, which has a significant impact on the global market. Gold and industrial metals have shown different trends. Gold's short - term correction is due to liquidity stampede under extreme panic, while industrial metals' differentiation is due to the rigidity difference in the industrial chain and supply chain [2]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are presented based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions, such as the expected price range and investment strategies for lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and other products [8][9][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's economy achieved a "good start", and the economic data from January to February showed that the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%. The real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year. The global market focus is on the escalating Persian Gulf geopolitical situation [1][2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate moderately due to China's good economic start and policy support. Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.85 [2][3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The Middle East crisis is expected to ease, which may drive the stock index to repair. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index performing relatively well [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bonds were under pressure due to rising oil prices and improved economic data. The short - term bullish factors for the bond market are insufficient, and attention should be paid to whether they can stabilize. Short - term long positions are advised to wait for high - selling opportunities, and if the market continues to decline, they can buy at low prices [6][7]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The bottom support is solid. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, and the long - term value support from the industry fundamentals remains stable [8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a range - bound state. The industry is at the bottom of the current production cycle, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand pattern and the "anti - involution" process [10][11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East is a concern. The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is dominated by the war situation, and long positions or call options can be held. Alumina has mixed long and short news, and it is recommended to wait and see. Casting aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and attention can be paid to the price difference between it and aluminum [14][15][16]. - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the increase in copper price volatility. For industrial customers, pay attention to the replenishment opportunity when the price drops to the 98,000 - 99,000 range; for speculative customers, pay attention to the pressure around 100,000 and the support in the above - mentioned range [16][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is weak and volatile, and the upward pressure is high, waiting for the impact of energy costs [19]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel is weak in the short term and is expected to be strong in the medium term. Stainless steel has limited logical changes, and attention should be paid to the demand release rhythm [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: It is weak in the short term and the center of gravity is upward in the long term [22]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate and gradually stop falling [22]. Oils and Fats & Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The short - term emotional high point has appeared. The large - supply logic in the medium term remains unchanged, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired [24][25]. - **Oils**: The oil market follows the trend of crude oil and is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [25][26][27]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **SC**: The geopolitical situation dominates the pricing logic. The crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and the focus this week is on the actual passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the development of the US - Iran conflict [28][29]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - level fluctuation continues, and the short - term strong pattern in the Asian fuel oil market is expected to continue [29][30]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term price is supported, but the demand is limited. Attention should be paid to position control and combined strategies [31]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They are oscillating strongly. In the long term, the bull market foundation remains, but short - term adjustments due to delayed interest - rate cut expectations should be vigilant. Attention should be paid to the impact of the FOMC meeting and other factors [32][33]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are oscillating weakly at a low level. Strategically, it is still recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the long term, and attention should be paid to the support levels [33][34][35]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely in the short and medium term, and the offset paper futures are expected to fluctuate within a range [37][38]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They are expected to be oscillating strongly before the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved, but the unilateral fluctuation is large, and risks should be noted [38][39][40]. - **PP & Propylene**: The short - term supply pressure of PP is limited, and propylene is expected to be strong in the future. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz [40][41][42]. - **Plastic**: The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is suppressed by high prices. The market is mainly affected by news, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [43][44]. - **Rubber**: The synthetic rubber may maintain a strong wide - range oscillation, and natural rubber is expected to stabilize in oscillation. Specific investment strategies are provided [45][50][72]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash has high supply pressure, and glass has high inventory risks. The price is affected by multiple factors [51][52]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The cost of furnace materials supports the steel price, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the price increase. The steel price is expected to rebound in the short term, but the rebound height is limited [51][52]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is short - term strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices [53][54][55]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The supply - demand contradiction may deteriorate further. The coal - coke price has bottom support but is restricted by the oversupply problem [55][56][57]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: The cost support is increasing, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory pressure [57][58]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The pig price is supported by secondary fattening sentiment but lacks upward driving force. It is recommended to sell call options on the main hog contract [59]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is supported by the supply - demand situation in this and the next year. The import quota issuance may lead to a short - term correction, but the price is still likely to rise [60][61][62]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price may oscillate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of ethanol and oil prices [62][63]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to rise in the long term due to increasing demand and rising costs. It is recommended to sell call options on the main egg contract [63][64][65]. - **Apples**: The apple futures are supported by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the 05 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillation [73][74]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [74][75]. - **Logs**: The inventory decline reduces the pressure on the futures price, and the import cost increase provides support. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [75][76].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the Middle East geopolitical conflict, it is necessary to use the "risk preference shock" framework for analysis. The current conflict has not shaken the underlying framework of the five major global market macro narratives, but has strengthened the trading priority of the long - term geopolitical narrative. The impact depth of this conflict on the market mainly depends on the disruption degree and duration of the Strait of Hormuz. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the conflict and two core signals to determine the peak of the conflict intensity. There is a risk of the risk preference shock evolving into a liquidity crisis [2]. - The Middle East conflict has hit the global market risk preference, and the A - share market has also been affected. The geopolitical risk is high, and the market volatility has increased. It is recommended to appropriately reduce positions [4]. - In the bond market, short - term bonds perform slightly better due to loose liquidity, while medium - and long - term bonds show a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to hold a small number of medium - term long positions in T2606 and temporarily wait and see in the short term [5]. - In the commodity market, the prices of various commodities are affected by the Middle East situation. For different varieties, corresponding investment strategies are proposed, such as focusing on structural long - making opportunities for lithium carbonate after the correction, and taking a long - position layout on dips for industrial silicon in the medium term [7][9]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Continue to focus on the Middle East situation. The statements of Fed officials show uncertainty about interest rate cuts in 2026 due to the war situation. The Iran situation is tense, with various events such as the destruction of US missile defense systems by Iran, and the consideration of military actions by some countries. The US Senate will vote on the "war powers resolution" [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated against the US dollar. The strength of the US dollar is supported by Trump's tough stance on the Iran issue and relevant news about the Fed Chairman nominee. The subsequent impact on the US dollar index and the USD/CNY exchange rate depends on whether the conflict is a blitzkrieg or a protracted war. Short - term export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises are recommended to adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.82 [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The escalation of the Middle East conflict has reduced market risk preference, causing the stock index to fall. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks is high, and it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market did not get a boost from the sharp decline in the A - share market. Short - term bonds perform slightly better due to loose liquidity. It is recommended to hold a small number of medium - term long positions in T2606 and temporarily wait and see in the short term [5]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate has dropped significantly. Affected by the Middle East situation, the market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to a phased tightening of liquidity. It is recommended to focus on structural long - making opportunities after the correction and downstream enterprises can replenish inventory at low prices [7]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures have fallen. The short - term price of industrial silicon is affected by the macro sentiment and its own weak fundamentals, but there is strong bottom support in the medium and long term. It is recommended to take a long - position layout on dips. The photovoltaic industry needs to wait for capacity clearance and the improvement of the supply - demand pattern [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation may affect the import and export of the Middle East aluminum industry chain and increase the cost of electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options for Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of alumina has rebounded, and it is recommended to sell deep out - of - the - money put options. For cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [12][13]. - **Copper**: The copper price has weakened. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the copper price has fallen below the important support range. It is recommended that non - position holders wait and see or consider buying out - of - the - money call options, and industrial customers can consider replenishing inventory [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is weak in the short term due to liquidity issues and the overall pressure of the sector. It is expected to be strong in the medium term [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel have fallen. The supply - shortage logic has been broken, but the actual industrial impact remains to be seen. The demand is expected to be boosted in the peak season, and the inventory of stainless steel has accumulated recently [18]. - **Tin**: The tin price has dropped sharply and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is tight, and the demand has started to resume work [18][19]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate. The current supply - demand pattern is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation and cost support [20]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans has risen, and the domestic market has oscillated. The supply pressure is expected to return in the second quarter. It is recommended to widen the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [21]. - **Oils**: The oil market is strong due to the geopolitical conflict. The international palm oil supply and demand situation is complex, and the domestic oil supply is sufficient. It is expected that the oil price will remain strong in the short term [21][22][23]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The Middle East conflict has led to concerns about the tightening of the Asian fuel oil supply, supporting the Singapore fuel oil market [25]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is driven by the cost of crude oil. The current terminal demand is low, and the supply is expected to increase. The price will follow the change of crude oil in the future [26]. Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals has fallen sharply due to the delay of interest rate cut expectations and liquidity pressure. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish stance on precious metals and be cautious about short - term adjustment risks. It is advisable to buy on dips and replenish positions step by step [28][29]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is close to the previous low, and the offset paper price is close to the previous high. The pulp inventory pressure is large, and the offset paper supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to conduct range trading for pulp in the short term and try a long - position strategy at low prices in the medium term. For offset paper, it is recommended to try a short - position strategy at high prices [30][31][32]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have risen. The cost support has been enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and attention should be paid to the refinery start - up changes and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [32][33]. - **LPG**: The LPG market is affected by the US - Iran situation. The market is concerned about the supply from the Middle East, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent development of the situation [33][35]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact on methanol. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the conflict will affect the main methanol production areas, gas fields, and ports in Iran [35][36]. - **Plastic PP**: The prices of plastic and polypropylene have risen. The rise is driven by cost increase and the improvement of the fundamental supply - demand expectation. It is necessary to be cautious about the market correction risk if the conflict eases [36][38][39]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber price is under pressure, and the synthetic rubber price is affected by the geopolitical conflict. The macro sentiment dominates, and the natural rubber price is expected to oscillate. The butadiene rubber cost is supported, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [39][44][45]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has an impact on the urea market, causing a "collapse of global supply" and an "explosion of domestic sentiment". It is expected to drive a price increase in the domestic market [47][48]. - **Glass Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash may be affected by the expected overhaul, and the glass demand has not recovered yet. The supply return expectation and high inventory in the middle stream limit the price increase of glass [48][49]. - **Propylene**: The propylene price is affected by the cost and supply - demand. The cost is the dominant factor in the short term. The propane price has risen, and there is an expectation of production reduction in some olefin enterprises [49][50]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak. The market has expectations for infrastructure and real estate policies, but the fundamental pressure of the finished steel still exists. The short - term policy expectations support the market, but the weak fundamentals limit the price increase space [51]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market shows a supply - demand game pattern. The supply pressure persists, and the demand is affected by seasonal restrictions and pessimistic expectations. The price has limited downward space but lacks upward drive [53]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke have risen. The risk assets may fluctuate more violently. The coking enterprises' operating rate is expected to rise slightly, and the coke may face a price cut risk in the future [53][54]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese have risen. The short - term sentiment is strong, but the black metal fundamentals are weak. The silicon manganese is affected by high inventory, and the silicon iron has a better fundamental situation [54][55]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The hog futures price has continued to decline. The piglet market is weak, and it is recommended to sell call options on the main hog futures contract [57][58]. - **Cotton**: The cotton futures price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton supply - demand situation is expected to be tight this year. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips and pay attention to the international situation and the US foreign trade policy [58][59][60]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar futures price has basically stood above the 5300 mark. The fundamental situation is favorable, but the international raw sugar price is under pressure. The upward space is expected to be limited [61][62]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price has declined. The egg market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and it is recommended to sell call options on the main egg futures contract [62]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price has risen. The market is affected by the fundamentals and delivery issues. The price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 10,000 [69][70]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price has risen slightly. The domestic jujube supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [71][72]. - **Logs**: The log futures price is approaching the previous high. The inventory has increased significantly, and the demand has not recovered significantly. It is recommended to shift from a long - position strategy to a range - trading strategy [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report Based on weekly futures technical indicator signals, different trends are predicted for various commodity and financial futures. In commodity futures, the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black and shipping, energy, chemical, and agricultural product sectors show different signals, including bullish, bearish, and sideways trends. In financial futures, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures are bullish, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 index futures are sideways, and 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are also sideways. Overall, investors need to pay attention to position control and stop - profit/stop - loss [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Gold in the precious metals sector is bearish, and silver is sideways; in the non - ferrous metals sector, zinc, nickel, industrial silicon, and aluminum alloy are bullish, polysilicon is bearish, and the rest are sideways [9]. - For the Shanghai copper main contract, it is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of building positions on dips between 100,000 and 103,000 yuan/ton, but need to strictly control positions [12]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and wire rods are bullish, and the rest are sideways; the European container shipping index shows a sideways trend [18]. - The main contract of rebar is expected to be in a sideways repair state next week, with support at 3000 - 3040 yuan/ton [22]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy sector is bullish; in the chemical sector, propylene, glass, and soda ash are bullish, pulp and staple fiber are bearish, and the rest are sideways [30]. - The main contract of PTA is expected to be sideways in the short term, with an oscillation range of 5000 - 5400 yuan/ton [35]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Soybean oil, sugar, logs, soybean meal, rapeseed, rapeseed oil, corn, and eggs are bullish, and the rest are sideways [41]. - The main contract of corn still has upward potential in the short term, but the risk of a pullback is increasing. The resistance range is 2380 - 2420 yuan/ton, and the support range is 2220 - 2250 yuan/ton. Long positions need strict position management [46]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures are bullish, and SSE 50 and SSE 300 index futures are sideways [52]. - The IC CSI 500 index futures are expected to rise slowly next week [54]. - The IF SSE 300 index futures are expected to be slightly bullish and sideways in the short term [59]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are sideways [63]. - The T 10 - year treasury bond futures need to be alert to the short - term pullback risk [67]. - The TS 2 - year treasury bond futures are expected to be sideways in the short term, and investors should be vigilant about the pullback risk [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overseas financial market during the Spring Festival holiday in 2026 revolved around three main lines: AI industry changes, geopolitical games, and tariff policy reconstruction. The follow - up needs to focus on how the Trump administration switches tariff tools overseas and the situation within the 301 tariff framework domestically. The probability of major risk events in the short - term is low due to the possible Sino - US summit [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, although the US economic fundamentals have not significantly deteriorated and the US political situation is chaotic, the RMB exchange rate is relatively stable. After the holiday, the linkage between the US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar index is expected to strengthen, and there are still positive factors supporting the RMB's long - term appreciation [3]. - The stock index is likely to strengthen after the holiday due to the combination of internal and external factors during the Spring Festival. The domestic financial data in January exceeded expectations, and the historical law shows that the A - share market has a high probability of rising after the Spring Festival [7]. - For treasury bonds, after the holiday, attention should be paid to risk sentiment and the trend of the A - share market. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in a small amount, and short - term value is not high [8]. - For the container shipping European line, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may push up the operating costs and risk premiums of the container shipping industry. The market will focus on whether the traditional small peak of shipments in March can be realized [10]. - For lithium carbonate, the demand in March is strong, and the processing fee may strengthen marginally [13]. - For the aluminum industry chain, electrolytic aluminum is still optimistic in the long - term, and it may maintain a volatile consolidation after the holiday. Alumina is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum [15]. - For copper, it is mainly in a volatile state in the short - term, and it is expected to break through and rise in the medium - term [17]. - For zinc, the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continues. The macro and fundamental factors have different impacts on the price [19]. - For nickel, the supply - side structure continues to adjust, and the overseas market is in a volatile and strengthening repair state [21]. - For tin, it follows the precious metals and runs strongly in the short - to - medium - term [24]. - For lead, it fluctuates under the influence of multiple events [26]. - For oilseeds, the US soybean may enter a high - level wide - range shock period, and the domestic soybean meal is in a short - term long and medium - term short trend [32]. - For oils and fats, the domestic oils and fats are expected to rise after the holiday [33]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, the short - term pricing core is still the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East, and the market will continue to fluctuate greatly [36]. - For asphalt, the market will follow the cost - end crude oil to fluctuate [37]. - For platinum and palladium, the bull market foundation still exists in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to relevant investigations and details [41]. - For gold and silver, maintain a strategic bullish position, and pay attention to the repair opportunity of the gold - silver ratio [46]. - For pulp and offset paper, the market is affected by multiple factors, and interval trading can be maintained [50]. - For LPG, the short - term pricing is mainly dominated by the US - Iran situation [53]. - For PTA - PX, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is more appropriate to buy on dips. Pay attention to the return plan of parking devices and do short on the processing fee on rallies [57]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate strongly along with the cost end, and pay attention to the geopolitical influence of Iran [60]. - For methanol, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy has a good risk - return ratio [63]. - For rubber, the price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand expectation and domestic weather conditions [65]. - For urea, it is advisable to buy at a low level [66]. - For glass and soda ash, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the medium - to - long - term, and the glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [68]. - For propylene, the cost increase and fundamental situation bring upward driving force to the market [70]. - For steel products, the price maintains a volatile and weak trend, and the price of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil may test the lower support level of the shock range after the holiday [72]. - For iron ore, the valuation has decreased, the negative factors have been released, and attention can be paid to low - buying or positive spread opportunities [73]. - For coking coal and coke, attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of mines and blast - furnace steel mills after the Spring Festival [77]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they continue to be in a volatile and weak state [78]. - For live pigs, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and the pig price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [80]. - For cotton, it is advisable to arrange long positions on callbacks but not to chase up, and pay attention to the demand situation after the holiday and the US tariff policy [83]. - For sugar, the upward driving force is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [86]. - For eggs, it will maintain a low - level shock in the short - term and the price center may rise in the medium - term [88]. - For apples, the short - term demand weakness has a suppressing effect on the market, but the decline space is limited [93]. - For red dates, the supply pattern is loose, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Multiple events affected the market, including AI - related employment concerns, Trump's tariff policies, the Iran issue, and strong domestic tourism data during the Spring Festival [1]. - **South China's Viewpoint**: The overseas financial market during the Spring Festival holiday revolved around three main lines, and attention should be paid to overseas tariff tool switching and domestic 301 tariff framework [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US economic fundamentals did not significantly deteriorate, and the RMB exchange rate was relatively stable. After the holiday, the linkage with the US dollar index is expected to strengthen [3]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.95, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.88 level [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is likely to strengthen after the holiday due to the combination of internal and external factors during the Spring Festival [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to risk sentiment and the A - share market trend. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in a small amount [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: Geopolitical factors may push up the costs of the container shipping industry, and attention should be paid to the shipment peak in March [10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand in March is strong, and the processing fee may strengthen marginally [13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Electrolytic aluminum is optimistic in the long - term and may fluctuate after the holiday. Alumina is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum [15]. - **Copper**: It is mainly volatile in the short - term and expected to rise in the medium - term [17]. - **Zinc**: The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continues, affected by macro and fundamental factors [19]. - **Nickel**: The supply - side structure adjusts, and the overseas market is in a volatile and strengthening repair state [21]. - **Tin**: It follows the precious metals and runs strongly in the short - to - medium - term [24]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates under the influence of multiple events [26]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The US soybean may enter a high - level wide - range shock period, and the domestic soybean meal is in a short - term long and medium - term short trend [32]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oils and fats are expected to rise after the holiday [33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: The short - term pricing core is the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East, and the market will continue to fluctuate greatly [36]. - **Asphalt**: The market will follow the cost - end crude oil to fluctuate [37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The bull market foundation still exists in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to relevant investigations and details [41]. - **Gold and Silver**: Maintain a strategic bullish position, and pay attention to the repair opportunity of the gold - silver ratio [46]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The market is affected by multiple factors, and interval trading can be maintained [50]. - **LPG**: The short - term pricing is mainly dominated by the US - Iran situation [53]. - **PTA - PX**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is more appropriate to buy on dips. Pay attention to the return plan of parking devices and do short on the processing fee on rallies [57]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly along with the cost end, and pay attention to the geopolitical influence of Iran [60]. - **Methanol**: Pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy has a good risk - return ratio [63]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand expectation and domestic weather conditions [65]. - **Urea**: It is advisable to buy at a low level [66]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the medium - to - long - term, and the glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [68]. - **Propylene**: The cost increase and fundamental situation bring upward driving force to the market [70]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price maintains a volatile and weak trend, and the price of the main contracts may test the lower support level of the shock range after the holiday [72]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation has decreased, the negative factors have been released, and attention can be paid to low - buying or positive spread opportunities [73]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of mines and blast - furnace steel mills after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They continue to be in a volatile and weak state [78]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and the pig price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [80]. - **Cotton**: It is advisable to arrange long positions on callbacks but not to chase up, and pay attention to the demand situation after the holiday and the US tariff policy [83]. - **Sugar**: The upward driving force is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [86]. - **Eggs**: It will maintain a low - level shock in the short - term and the price center may rise in the medium - term [88]. - **Apples**: The short - term demand weakness has a suppressing effect on the market, but the decline space is limited [93]. - **Red Dates**: The supply pattern is loose, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest price data in January 2026 in China shows a mild recovery at a low level with structural differentiation, while the non - farm data in the US in January greatly exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Domestic price repair depends on the optimization of "new supply" and the unblocking of the transmission chain in the middle and lower reaches. The economic opportunities from the visit and domestic growth - stabilizing policies may lead to a valuation repair of pro - cyclical sectors [2]. - In the short term, for the RMB exchange rate, pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline, and its linkage with the US dollar index may increase [3]. - For the stock index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - For the bond market, it is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - For the container shipping European line, the market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. - For new energy products, the spot market for lithium carbonate is trading lightly, and it is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [15][17]. - For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy may be in a shock adjustment. Copper may be weak in its rebound, zinc may be in a shock, nickel - stainless steel may be affected by quota disturbances, tin may be adjusted in a wide - range shock, and lead may fluctuate weakly [20][26][28]. - For oilseeds and fats, for oilseeds, there are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities. For fats, the domestic market has limited driving forces and is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [31][33]. - For energy and oil and gas, for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, due to geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday. For asphalt, its price may follow the cost - end crude oil, and there may be a decline after the holiday [35][37][39]. - For precious metals, for platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation still exists, and it is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. For gold and silver, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [43][45]. - For chemical products, for pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to conduct range trading. For pure benzene - styrene, pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. For LPG, pay attention to geopolitical uncertainties. For PTA - PX, it is advisable to buy at low prices. For MEG - bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. For methanol, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For plastics and PP, the short - term driving force is limited, and it is expected to be in a shock before the holiday. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday, and it is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For urea, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For glass and soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. For propylene, pay attention to cost and risk [51][54][57][62][65][67][69][80][82][83][86]. - For black products, for rebar and hot - rolled coils, the price may be in a weak shock. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are in a bottom - shock state [88][91][94][95]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, for live pigs, it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract. For cotton, it is expected to be in a shock in the short term. For sugar, the upward space is limited. For eggs, the main contract is expected to decline in a shock. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For apples, the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited. For red dates, the short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure. For logs, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100][103][104][111][113][114][116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's CPI and PPI data in January 2026 showed a mild recovery at a low level. The US non - farm data in January was strong, affecting the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Indonesia plans to cut the output of the world's largest nickel mine by 70%, and the US Congressional Budget Office expects the 2026 deficit to be $1.9 trillion [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US non - farm report in January was strong, delaying the market's expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut. The RMB exchange rate was under the central bank's regulation and maintained a mild appreciation. Pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline [3]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market is trading lightly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. It is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday [15]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The market is in a wide - range shock. Due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [16][17]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The non - farm data in the US was better than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts. The fundamentals of aluminum have not changed much, and it may be in a shock adjustment. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, and cast aluminum alloy may follow aluminum [20]. - **Copper**: The probability of a March interest rate cut has decreased, and the copper price's rebound is weak. It is recommended to hold a light position or wait and see before the holiday [20][23]. - **Zinc**: It follows the sector's adjustment, and the non - farm data suppresses the price. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is affected by quota disturbances. The market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of capital withdrawal before the holiday [27][28]. - **Tin**: Its price is mainly driven by the macro situation and is expected to be in a wide - range shock adjustment [29][30]. - **Lead**: It follows the sector's fluctuation and is expected to be in a weak shock [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal may rebound in the short - term but may be restricted by new supplies in the long - term. There are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [31]. - **Fats**: The domestic market has limited driving forces. The palm oil market needs to observe the de - stocking process, the soybean oil has support from policies, and the rapeseed oil supply is loose. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [32][33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: It opened high and went high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is being repaired, and the demand is weak in some areas. The logic is mainly related to geopolitics, and it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [35]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cost has increased, and it opened high and went high. The supply is relatively abundant in the short - term, the demand is stable, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [36][37]. - **Asphalt**: Its price increase is weak. The demand has reached the freezing point before the holiday, and it may follow the cost - end crude oil. There may be a decline after the holiday [38][39]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term bull market foundation still exists. It is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. Pay attention to the impact of Fed officials' speeches and relevant events [43]. - **Gold and Silver**: The long - term upward trend remains, but the short - term operation is difficult. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [45]. Chemical Products - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp market is relatively neutral, and the offset paper futures may be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to conduct range trading [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand is flat. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decrease during the Spring Festival [54][55]. - **LPG**: There are still uncertainties in geopolitics. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to risk management before the holiday [56][57]. - **PTA - PX**: It benefits from the good supply - demand structure of PX. The first quarter may see inventory accumulation, and the second quarter may be in short supply. It is advisable to buy at low prices [59][62]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand balance has improved. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [63][65]. - **Methanol**: It follows geopolitics and non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to be empty before the holiday [66][67]. - **Plastics and PP**: The short - term driving force is limited. PE has a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and PP has limited supply pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [68][69]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [72][80]. - **Urea**: It is in a stage of over - supply due to new capacity release. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation, but it is recommended to exit long positions and be empty before the holiday [81][82]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the demand is expected to weaken, and it is in a weak shock. For glass, there may be concentrated cold repairs before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [83][84]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals still have support, but the cost has uncertainties. Pay attention to cost, supply - demand, and risk [85][86]. Black Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The price may be in a weak shock. The supply is relatively strong compared to the demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may test the lower limit of the shock range [88][89]. - **Iron Ore**: The overall supply - demand is weak, and the iron water is expected to rise. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday [90][91]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are many disturbances in the overseas market, and the domestic driving force is insufficient. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday [92][94]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are in a bottom - shock state. The cost provides support, but the downstream inventory accumulation and high inventory of ferromanganese put pressure on the price [95]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The futures price has rebounded, and it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract [98][99]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the external - internal cotton price difference restricts the upward space [99][100]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic sugar's upward space is limited [101][103]. - **Eggs**: The main contract is expected to decline in a shock. The pre - holiday demand has weakened, and the supply is sufficient [104]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [104][111]. - **Apples**: The pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited [112][113]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [114]. - **Logs**: The liquidity is insufficient, and the industry is optimistic about the post - holiday market. It is recommended to wait and see [115][116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market is affected by external and precious metal markets, with increased risk preference volatility. In the short term, the index shows a range-bound trend, but the long - term slow - bull pattern remains stable. Before the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, the market is still worth looking forward to. In the short term, safe - haven sectors may be more favored, and in the long run, the relative performance of IF and IC is still optimistic [12][13]. - The bond market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors in February, and may continue to fluctuate within a range. Before the Spring Festival, the central bank will actively protect the cross - festival capital, and the market environment is relatively warm. After the festival, the supply pressure will increase, and the long - term bonds may be more advantageous [96]. - The spot freight rate of the shipping market will enter a downward channel after the peak pre - Spring Festival shipping demand. After the festival, it is likely to continue the off - season performance. High capacity restricts the possible rebound, but geopolitical conflicts may provide trading hotspots. It is recommended to short the 04 contract on rallies and long the 08 contract on dips [119]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Index - **Market Review**: The A - share market had a "good start" at the beginning of the year, but the regulatory authorities took measures to "cool down" the over - heated market. Later, due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman and the news of the US - Iran peace talks, the precious metal and capital markets fell sharply. From February 2 to 6, the A - share market declined with shrinking volume, and large - cap blue - chip stocks performed better [7][8][10]. - **Outlook**: The nomination of Kevin Warsh has triggered hawkish expectations. Domestically, consumption support policies are expected to accelerate. The proportion of companies with improved earnings is high, but the certainty of the earnings inflection point needs to be verified. The overall market liquidity is at a good level. The A - share market's risk preference fluctuates greatly in the short term, and the index shows a range - bound trend, but the long - term slow - bull pattern is stable [12][13]. - **成交持仓分析**: This week, the trading volume of stock index futures decreased overall. The average daily trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM was 135,600, 63,200, 218,000, and 253,700 lots respectively, with changes of - 27,300, - 12,600, + 5,800, and + 2,200 lots compared with last week. The positions also decreased overall, with the average daily positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM being 302,000, 111,600, 323,700, and 406,000 lots respectively, with changes of - 22,200, - 8,800, - 22,900, and + 6,800 lots compared with last week [14]. - **基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析**: The basis widened this week. The basis of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 changed from premium to discount. The annualized basis rate also decreased. The spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts and between the current - quarter and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were mostly negative, and the spreads of some contracts changed compared with the beginning of the week. In terms of cross - variety spreads, large - cap blue - chip stocks performed relatively well [16][25][27]. - **行业板块概况**: In the CSI 300, the consumer, industrial, and financial sectors led the rise, while the communication, materials, and information sectors led the decline. In the CSI 500, the real estate, optional, and pharmaceutical sectors led the rise, and the raw materials, information, and communication sectors led the decline. Among the primary industries, the food and beverage, beauty care, and power equipment sectors led the rise, while the non - ferrous metals, communication, and electronics sectors led the decline [33][38]. - **估值比较**: As of February 6, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.0848, 11.6357, 36.9188, and 49.1824 times respectively, and they were at the 81.28%, 83.01%, 87.12%, and 81.53% percentile levels in the past ten years [39]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The weak PMI in January boosted the bond market on Monday. The central bank's actions such as increasing the purchase of bonds and conducting reverse repurchases affected the bond market. The trading data of treasury bond futures showed different trends in different contracts. The spot yields of treasury bonds mostly declined, and the yields of US bonds also decreased. The capital market was stable, and the central bank protected the cross - festival funds [42][76][86]. - **Strategy Performance**: In the current - week, futures performed better than spot bonds, with narrowing basis and rising IRR. There is no positive arbitrage space currently. It is recommended to short the basis of TL2603, pay attention to the long - current - quarter and short - next - quarter inter - period strategy, and the flattening strategy of shorting the short - end and longing the long - end [46][49][59]. - **Market Analysis**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the market's expectation of easing is not strong. The supply pressure of local bonds is large, but the upward space of interest rates is limited. The bond market may continue to fluctuate within a range in February. Before the Spring Festival, the market environment is relatively warm, and after the festival, the long - term bonds may be more advantageous [96]. - **Next - Week Outlook**: As the Spring Festival approaches, trading is expected to decline, and the bond market may continue to fluctuate. The central bank is actively protecting the cross - festival funds, and short - term bonds should have stronger support [98]. - **Next - Week Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar**: A total of 9.055 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and buy - out reverse repurchases will mature next week, and no important economic data will be released [100]. 3.3 Shipping Index - **Market Review**: The EC futures were affected by the decline in commodity futures on Monday, recovered on Tuesday, but fell back in the second half of the week due to the end of the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea by some shipping companies [101]. - **集运市场情况**: The spot freight rate has entered a downward channel after the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. Some shipping companies have raised their post - festival quotes, but it is difficult to support the price. In terms of supply, the container capacity in Europe is higher than the same period in previous years, and the potential capacity is also increasing. In terms of demand, the macro - demand in the eurozone has limited improvement, and the demand side has limited support for the shipping price [108][115][116]. - **Market Outlook**: After the peak pre - Spring Festival shipping demand, the spot freight rate will decline. After the festival, it is likely to continue the off - season performance. High capacity restricts the rebound. Geopolitical conflicts may provide trading hotspots. It is recommended to short the 04 contract on rallies and long the 08 contract on dips [119].

Group 1: Macroeconomics - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England maintained their benchmark interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its three key interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, while the BoE's decision, with four out of nine policymakers voting for a 25 - basis - point cut, signaled a dovish stance [1]. - The UK's GDP growth forecast was downgraded to 0.9%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.3%, indicating weak domestic demand. The visit of UK's Starmer to China is seen as a practical choice to break through growth bottlenecks [2]. - The US 12 - month JOLTS job openings reached a new low since September 2020, and the US Challenger job cuts in January hit a record high for the same period since 2009, surging 205% month - on - month [4][5]. Group 2: Exchange Rates - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate showed a trend of first depreciation and then appreciation. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9408 at 16:30, down 32 basis points, and the night - session closed at 6.9363. The central parity rate was set at 6.9570, down 37 basis points [3]. - Due to weak US employment data and AI - related panic, the market's risk - aversion demand increased, supporting the US dollar index. The RMB's appreciation momentum may decline after the holiday as seasonal settlement demand weakens [3]. - Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures - The stock index fell collectively, with the large - cap index relatively more resilient. The trading volume in the two markets dropped to around 2.1 trillion yuan. The short - term stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with the large - cap index outperforming, but the adjustment range is limited [4][5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The open - market operation injected cross - festival funds, and the money market was stable. The yield of spot bonds declined across the board. The bond market may gain upward momentum as the A - share market is likely to adjust [5][6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (European Routes) - The main contract EC2604 of container shipping on European routes fluctuated widely. The market's core contradiction lies in the game between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. Short - term, it will maintain a volatile pattern with limited upside [6][7][8]. - It is recommended to shift long positions on the medium - term during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high levels. Short - term, consider shorting lightly at high levels [6][8]. Group 6: New Energy (Carbonate Lithium and Industrial Silicon) - Carbonate lithium futures prices fell, with a daily decline of 9.81%. The trading volume increased by 70.48%, and the open interest decreased by 30,100 lots. It is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival to avoid risks [9]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. They are expected to trade in a narrow range, with industrial silicon between 8300 - 9100 and polysilicon between 48000 - 52000 [10][11][13]. Group 7: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fell. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to replenish inventory when prices decline. The copper market is affected by factors such as inventory changes and holiday - related demand [15][16][20]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate, with support at 23000 - 23500. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a long - term weakening trend. Cast aluminum alloy prices are also expected to oscillate [21][22][23]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the future. Nickel - stainless steel prices are affected by the broader market and are expected to be weak and volatile. Tin prices are likely to follow the sector in wide - range adjustments [23][24][26]. - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lacking upward drivers before the Spring Festival [26][27]. Group 8: Oils and Fats, and Feeds - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is strong. Domestic soybean meal is expected to rebound in the short - term, and rapeseed meal is difficult to have an independent upward trend. It is recommended to participate in long positions in spreads and single - side trades lightly [28]. - For oils, the short - term is expected to be in a consolidation phase. The overall situation in the first quarter is still supported, and short - selling is not recommended [29]. Group 9: Energy and Oil & Gas - Fuel oil is in a weak operation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly in the bunkering market. The long - term high - sulfur cracking trend is downward [31]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable. The inventory decline provides a slight boost [31][32]. - Asphalt prices are struggling to rise. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile state, with limited upside and downside [32][33][34]. Group 10: Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices in NYMEX retreated significantly. The short - term "tightening trade" does not change the long - term "loosening trend." Attention should be paid to position control [34][35][36]. - Gold and silver prices fell under pressure. In the short - term, they are weak and may continue to decline. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38]. Group 11: Chemicals - Pulp and offset paper futures prices rebounded from lows. It is recommended to hold short positions in pulp futures and consider short - term long positions in offset paper futures [39][40]. - LPG prices are affected by the US - Iran negotiation. Attention should be paid to the negotiation results [40][41][42]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be bought on dips. The processing fee of PTA is expected to narrow [43][44][45]. - MEG - bottle chips are weakly volatile. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound state [45][46]. - Methanol is recommended to be observed on the long - side. 3 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads can be shorted, and the MTO spread can be widened [46][47][48]. - Plastics and PP are weakly volatile. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand recovery [48][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical and demand factors [49][50][52]. - Rubber prices are supported at the bottom. It is recommended to be lightly - positioned before the long holiday and consider option strategies [53][57][81]. - Urea prices are expected to correct in the short - term. It is recommended to exit long positions [57][58]. - Glass and soda ash are weakly volatile. Soda ash is in an oscillating state, and glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [58][59][60]. - Propylene is affected by cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to risks [60][61]. Group 12: Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a state of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weakly volatile. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 3050 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils 2605 is between 3200 - 3350 [62]. - Iron ore is in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the Spring Festival [63][64]. - Coking coal and coke prices fell. The short - term rebound has limited sustainability [64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. The price range of ferrosilicon 05 is between 5400 - 5900, and that of ferromanganese 05 is between 5700 - 6100 [65][66][67]. Group 13: Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hog prices are in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to observe before clear demand signals and consider spread strategies [69]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong but are restricted by the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips [70][71][72]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited upward space, with pressure at the 60 - day moving average [72][73]. - Egg prices fell below the previous low. It is recommended to sell call options on JD2603 - C - 3100 [74]. - Apple prices are likely to be strong. The consumption peak is coming to an end, but the delivery contradiction provides support [81][82][83]. - Red date prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short - term and face pressure in the long - term [84][85]. - Log prices may rise. It is recommended to try long positions on dips and sell put options [86][87].