Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a three-day upward trend driven by safe-haven demand and a weak dollar, but faced a pullback due to stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, ultimately closing the week with a slight gain [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 111,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. This data weakened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, leading to a significant drop in gold prices on Thursday [2] - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy, with a 90-day tariff suspension period ending on July 9, has supported gold as a safe-haven asset while increasing market volatility [2] - The U.S. Congress passed a tax reform bill that will increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with total U.S. debt exceeding $37 trillion. This rising sovereign debt diminishes the dollar's attractiveness and supports a long-term upward trend for gold [2] - Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and progress in Iran nuclear negotiations, have reduced the geopolitical risk premium, putting some pressure on gold prices [2] Group 2: Upcoming Events - Key events to watch next week include the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decision on July 8, the release of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting minutes on July 9, and the weekly initial jobless claims data on July 10. These events may provide insights into monetary policy and economic outlook, impacting gold prices [3] - July 9 marks the deadline for Trump's tariffs, with ongoing negotiations with major economies like Japan and India progressing slowly. The market anticipates potential threats of increased tariffs to compel concessions from other countries, although an extension of the deadline is also likely [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited a fluctuating upward trend this week, closing with a bullish candlestick, aligning with the expectation of a near-term bottom and subsequent rebound [4] - The current market is in a corrective phase following a rise from a low of 3347 to a high of 3365, indicating a second wave adjustment within a larger upward structure. The focus will be on the progress of this correction, with anticipation for a subsequent third wave upward movement [5][7] - After the completion of the second wave rebound, attention will shift to potential opportunities in the third wave downward movement, which is a key focus for upcoming trading strategies [8]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Jialian Technology Co., Ltd. is experiencing rapid capacity growth and has established production bases in various regions, including Thailand, which is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the North American market due to favorable tariff policies [3][4][5]. Company Overview - The company has a stable credit rating of AA- and is expected to maintain this outlook due to its leading position in the industry and continuous capacity expansion [3][4]. - As of March 2025, the company's total assets reached 45.89 billion, with total debt at 21.49 billion and net profit of -0.28 million [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company's operating income for 2024 was 23.26 billion, with a net profit margin of 17.62% [4][5]. - The company reported a decrease in net profit from 1.76 million in 2022 to -0.28 million in 2024, indicating challenges in profitability [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The demand for plastic dining products is growing in China, driven by the expansion of the takeout and restaurant markets, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the industry [5][11]. - The company exports a significant portion of its products, with 55.42% of its revenue coming from overseas sales, primarily from North America [5][11]. Competitive Landscape - The company faces high customer concentration, with the top five customers accounting for 45.08% and 42.99% of sales in 2023 and 2024, respectively [6][14]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with well-known retailers and restaurant giants, enhancing its brand recognition and market position [6][14]. Operational Challenges - The utilization rate of newly added production capacity is still in the ramp-up phase, which may affect the company's ability to meet demand [6][7]. - The company has a high proportion of foreign assets, with significant exposure to currency fluctuations, as its overseas operations are primarily denominated in foreign currencies [6][7]. Industry Trends - The plastic products industry is witnessing a trend towards increased concentration, with leading companies benefiting from the elimination of outdated production capacities [11][12]. - The introduction of biodegradable plastic products is gaining traction, with the company investing in technology to enhance its competitive edge in this segment [12][13].

Overview of Overseas Business - The company has concentrated its overseas business in regions such as the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, with products sold to nearly 200 countries and regions globally. In 2024, overseas component shipments accounted for approximately 57.8% of total shipments, while overseas sales represented 68.6% of total revenue [2][3]. Sales Performance by Region - Sales revenue for different regions in 2024 was as follows: Europe: 13.702 billion yuan, Americas: 22.432 billion yuan, Asia-Pacific: 13.654 billion yuan, and other regions: 11.360 billion yuan. The gross profit margins for these regions were 7.35%, 26.21%, 0.23%, and 24.60%, respectively, showing significant variations compared to the previous year [2][3]. Customer Analysis - The company is required to disclose detailed information about its top five customers in each region, including customer names, main businesses, countries, cooperation duration, and sales specifics. This includes whether they are new major customers and any relationships with the company or its controlling shareholders [2][3]. Gross Margin Variations - The gross margin for the company’s products showed significant changes across regions. The gross margin in Europe and Asia-Pacific decreased, while it increased in the Americas and other regions. This was attributed to variations in sales prices and unit costs, with the Americas maintaining higher sales prices due to existing contracts and local demand [5][6]. Cost Structure and Material Prices - The overall cost structure of the company showed a downward trend in 2024, primarily due to a significant drop in the prices of key raw materials such as silicon, photovoltaic glass, and encapsulation films. The direct material costs accounted for a substantial portion of total costs, with direct materials making up 65.65% of the total cost structure [6][7]. Market Demand and Trade Policies - The company anticipates a slight increase in global installation demand in 2025, with emerging markets continuing to grow. However, demand in Europe is expected to weaken, while the Americas and Asia-Pacific markets show positive trends. Trade policies, particularly in North America and India, have a significant impact on market access and costs [6][7]. Competitive Positioning - The company has maintained a leading position in the photovoltaic industry by continuously improving its product efficiency and technology, particularly with its N-type TOPCon technology. The average efficiency of mass-produced batteries and the introduction of innovative photovoltaic modules have further solidified its competitive edge [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that the economy is in a "solid state" despite facing risks from trade policies, and it is expected that economic growth will slow down this year [1] Economic Condition - The economy is described as being in a "solid state" indicating stability [1] - There are anticipated risks related to trade policies that could impact economic performance [1] - A slowdown in economic growth is expected for the current year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Skechers, the third-largest athletic shoe retailer globally, announced a privatization decision in partnership with 3G Capital, which is expected to enhance its long-term strategic focus amid economic uncertainties [2][4][8]. Group 1: Company Overview - Skechers was founded in 1992 by Robert Greenberg and is headquartered in Manhattan Beach, California, initially selling work boots before expanding into athletic footwear [4]. - The company is known for its comfortable shoe styles priced lower than competitors like Nike and Adidas, and it is one of the largest consumer goods companies led by its founder [4]. - Skechers' sales reached nearly $9 billion in 2024, marking a 12% year-over-year growth, with significant contributions from the Chinese market [5]. Group 2: Privatization Details - On May 5, Skechers announced an agreement with 3G Capital to acquire all outstanding shares at $63 per share, representing a 30% premium over the average stock price over the past 15 days [4]. - Following the acquisition, 3G Capital is expected to hold approximately 80% of the new company, and the current leadership will remain in place [4]. - The transaction has been approved by Skechers' board and is anticipated to close in the third quarter of 2025 [4]. Group 3: Market Reaction and Financial Performance - Skechers' stock price surged by 25% following the privatization announcement, marking the highest intraday increase in over seven years [5]. - The company withdrew its full-year 2025 earnings forecast due to economic uncertainties stemming from global trade policies [6]. - In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, Skechers achieved a record quarterly sales of $2.41 billion, with international sales accounting for 65% of total sales [5]. Group 4: Industry Context - The company faces challenges from global trade policy changes, which have been identified as significant risks to its business operations [7]. - Skechers, along with other brands, has expressed concerns over tariffs impacting the footwear industry, highlighting the potential for increased operational risks and consumer demand suppression [7]. - Analysts suggest that privatization may allow Skechers to navigate short-term pressures and focus on long-term strategic adjustments amid trade tensions and economic uncertainty [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways and weak" respectively, with a sideways trading strategy. The coking coal market has insufficient bullish drivers and operates at a low level. For coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are also "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways and weak" respectively, with a sideways trading strategy. The bearish sentiment dominates, and coke shows a weak sideways movement [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend and Logic**: Coking coal futures remain in a downward trend, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement and the daily K - line suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. The medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is loose, with high supply and high imports continuing. Demand improvement in real estate and infrastructure takes time, and export demand faces trade policy risks. The "reciprocal tariff" policy in the US in early April and a 50% tariff increase on Chinese goods have limited direct impact on coking coal but may affect the overall atmosphere of black commodities. The black metal demand improves in the "Golden March and Silver April", but the medium - and long - term fundamentals of coking coal are bearish, and the futures main contract operates weakly [5] Coke (J) - **Price Trend and Logic**: Trade pressure from the US, Vietnam, etc., has led to concerns about black metal demand. The sharp decline in finished product futures prices has triggered negative feedback expectations, driving coke to operate weakly. Domestic coking plants initiated the first price increase around the Tomb - sweeping Festival, starting from April 9. The cost and demand sides of coke still have medium - and long - term concerns. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal, the raw material, is loose, providing insufficient cost support. The US has increased tariffs, with an 84% import tariff on Chinese goods this time, bringing export risks. The short - term improvement in coke fundamentals and long - term bearish expectations are intertwined, and the new tariff policy deepens concerns about black commodity demand, so the coke main contract is expected to operate weakly in the near future [7]