华源证券发布研报称，中长期看，铜矿资本开支不足，供给端扰动频发，铜矿供需格局或将由紧平衡转 向短缺，同时铜冶炼在"反内卷"背景下利润周期有望见底，叠加美联储进入降息周期，铜价有望突破上 行。 铜业股午后涨幅扩大，截至发稿，中国大冶有色金属(00661)涨10.91%，报0.183港元；江西铜业 （600362）股份(00358)涨3.29%，报47.06港元；紫金矿业（601899）(02899)涨1.74%，报40.9港元；中 国有色矿业(01258)涨1.59%，报15.95港元。 消息面上，1月14日，铜价创下历史新高。市场担心特朗普政府扩大铜进口关税范围，贸易商赶在新关 税出台前加速向美国运铜，并可能导致世界其他地区面临供应短缺。渤海证券表示，资源争夺等市场情 绪对当前铜价影响较大，若短期情绪热度难以消散，铜价或维持高位震荡，关注后续相关事件走向。 ...

2025 年 12 月 21 日 行业研究 COMEX 铜非商业净多头持仓处于 1990 年以来 87%分位数 ——铜行业周报（20251215-20251219） 要点 本周小结：继续看好铜价上行。截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 93180 元/吨，环比 12 月 12 日-0.96%；LME 铜收盘价 11882 美元/吨，环比 12 月 12 日+2.85%。（1）宏观：美国 11 月失业率达 4.6%，2026 年 1 月降息概率环比 回升。（2）供需：据 SMM，中国冶炼厂与安托法加斯塔敲定 2026 年铜精矿 TC 长单 Benchmark 为 0 美元/吨（本周 TC 现货价为-44 美元/吨），铜冶炼厂利 润或好于预期。线缆企业开工率本周略有回升，Q4 电网旺季效应仍存；Q4 空调 排产同比下降，但环比改善；供需仍维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+1.7%，LME 铜库存环比-3.3%。（1）港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 73.1 万吨，环比上周-4.3%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 202 ...

美联储于12月宣布降息25个基点，并预期在2026年、2027年各降息一次。市场关注点转向下任美联储主 席人选。无论最终人选是谁，市场已开始预期2026年可能存在至少两次降息。需要注意的是，新任主席 或理事在联邦公开市场委员会中仅拥有一票或少数票，其决策仍将受美国消费端通胀可能反弹的制约。 此外，美联储将于12月12日起启动每月400亿美元的短期国债购买，并暗示在2026年一季度维持较高购 买规模，之后可能逐步放缓至每月200亿～250亿美元，旨在维持银行体系准备金充裕，应对明年4月的 税期流动性压力。此举属于技术性扩表，一方面适应经济增长带来的货币需求，另一方面回填此前量化 紧缩（QT）可能留下的流动性缺口。据巴克莱和摩根大通等机构预测，美联储2026年可能发行约5000 亿美元的短期国债，这被市场解读为积极的流动性投放信号。 全球主要经济体财政政策呈现宽松趋势。德国推出总额约9000亿欧元的投资计划，涵盖国防与公共基础 设施；美国未来十年债务上限提高5万亿美元，财政赤字预计增加；日本批准约21.3万亿日元的经济刺 激方案；英国亦扩大财政"缓冲空间"，政府借款预计增加。多国同步的财政扩张预期，可能推动全球经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper metal sector has seen significant gains in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with A-share copper metal concepts rising over 75% this year and Hong Kong stocks nearly doubling in value. The recent surge in copper prices is attributed to renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, which has also positively impacted other precious metals like silver and gold [2][4][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The copper metal sector has been the largest gaining sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this year, with A-share copper concepts up over 75% and Hong Kong stocks nearly doubling [2]. - On a recent Friday, London copper futures surged by 2.25%, reaching a record high of $11,210.5 per ton, while domestic and U.S. copper prices also saw strong increases of 1.75% and 1.62%, respectively [2]. - Silver futures experienced an even larger increase of 5.15%, reaching a new historical high, while spot gold prices rose nearly 1.5%, surpassing $4,200 [4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - A system failure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) led to a halt in trading, coinciding with silver's critical price breakout, which fueled conspiracy theories about market manipulation. This incident contributed to a surge in short-term speculative trading in precious metals [6][7]. - The 14th Asian Copper Week held in Shanghai from November 25-27 was a significant event, where major global copper companies discussed processing fees, leading to heightened tensions and expectations of rising copper prices due to supply chain pressures [9][10]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is facing a historically tight supply situation, with mining companies pushing for record high processing fees and halting illegal copper smelting capacity in China [9][10]. - The global copper supply is constrained by various factors, including production interruptions at major mines and a significant decline in average copper ore grades, which has increased extraction costs by nearly 80% over the past decade [18][19]. - Demand for copper is expected to surge due to the growth in industries such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and AI, with projections indicating a supply shortfall of approximately 10,000 tons by 2025 [20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The consensus in the market is that copper prices are likely to continue rising due to persistent supply constraints and increasing demand, with some estimates suggesting a potential copper shortfall of 2 to 4 million tons by 2030 [20]. - Major players in the copper industry, such as Zijin Mining, are well-positioned due to their comprehensive supply chain management and cost advantages, which could lead to higher valuations in the market [22][26]. - Institutional investors, including major banks, are still showing confidence in the copper sector, indicating a positive outlook for future investments [27][28].

铜周报 铜行业周报 2025/08/08 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].