Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through increased reverse repurchase operations, signaling a commitment to stabilize market expectations and credit conditions amid a peak in government bond issuance [1][2][3]. Group 1: PBOC Operations - On July 15, the PBOC conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 342.5 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan for the day [1]. - The PBOC also announced a total of 1.4 trillion yuan in buyout reverse repurchase operations, with 800 billion yuan for 3-month and 600 billion yuan for 6-month terms, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1][2]. - The total amount of buyout reverse repos maturing in July is 1.2 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan for the month, marking the second consecutive month of increased operations [1][2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Analysts note that the current liquidity environment is under pressure due to a significant tax payment period and increased government bond issuance, with expected net financing exceeding 1 trillion yuan [3][4]. - The liquidity disturbances are manageable, with analysts suggesting that the impact of tax payments on liquidity is historically controllable, typically within a fluctuation range of ±2 basis points for representative rates [3][4]. - The overall market sentiment remains stable, with the PBOC's actions expected to maintain a steady interest rate environment, although the balance between liquidity disturbances and market expectations will be crucial for asset pricing [4]. Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to benefit from the PBOC's reverse repurchase operations, potentially leading to a recovery if liquidity remains stable or improves [5]. - As of July 15, the yields on 30-year and 10-year government bonds have decreased slightly, indicating a positive response to the PBOC's liquidity measures [5]. - Analysts recommend a strategy of increasing allocations to high-grade credit bonds as opportunities arise, while closely monitoring interest rate changes and policy actions [5].

2025 年 06 月 09 日 | | 主力合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌(%) | 振幅(%) | 成 交 | 持 仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2年期 | TS2509 | 102.470 | 102.508 | 102.442 | 102.452 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 34876 | 117087 | | 5年期 | TF2509 | 106.140 | 106.195 | 106.110 | 106.140 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 49178 | 145436 | | 10年期 | T2509 | 108.820 | 108.930 | 108.810 | 108.925 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 54263 | 177112 | | 30年期 | TL2509 | 119.500 | 119.820 | 119.500 | 119.780 | 0.35 | 0.27 | 70269 | 96837 | 资料来源：iFind，国泰君安期货研 ...