| 国传奇斯 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月29日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属剧烈波动。近期美国数据有利于降息的延续，地缘方面以色列和伊朗、美国和委内瑞拉之间现紧 张氛围。黄金上周一突破前高刷新历史新高后形成突破行情,贵金属趋势得到强化,白银铂把进入快速拉涨 阶段,全银比回落至60以下。市场并无明显消息驱动,资金情绪主导波动,国内外交易所陆续调整保证金和 交易限制,短期市场波动率极高,谨慎参与,警惕资金撤离带来巨大回撤。 ์ 、 纪上市后涨幅过大,距离交割时间较远,市场短期投 ...

广发期货EDP 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 欢迎关注微信公众号 | | | | 【每日精选观点】 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 合約 | 观点 | | | | 锡 甲醇 | SN2601 MA2605 | 震荡偏强 短期偏强 | | | | 焦煤 | JM2605 | 底部反弹 | | | | 棕榈洲 | P2605 | 逢高空 | | | | 铂、锂 | PT2606/PD | 逢低多 | | | | | 2606 | 【全品种日评】 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IF2512 | | 美联储本次会后公布决定继续降息25bp,其发言 态度对通胀乐观,并将启动短债买入,超预期鸽 | | | 股指 | IH2512 | 顺周期领衔反弹,A股明显回暖 | 派,短期全球流动性预期改善,但日央行加息预期 | | | | IC2512 | | 影响叠加下,市场缺乏上涨合力,下方空间亦有限 | | | | IM2512 | | 。当前主线未明,谨慎观望为主。 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by various factors such as the December Fed FOMC meeting, employment data, and the Politburo meeting. Different varieties in the futures market show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillatory movements [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Equity Index Futures - With the likely scenario of continued interest - rate cuts due to weak employment data and a positive Politburo meeting, A - share major indices have stabilized. After confirming the stage bottom, low volatility is expected to be followed by an increase in volatility. It's difficult to conduct short - term unilateral futures long operations, and one can lightly and gradually lay out bull spreads of CSI 1000 put options on pullbacks [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10 - year treasury bond faces resistance near 1.85%, and the T2603 contract may find support around 107.6. The 30 - 10Y spread has reached a high this year, but unfavorable factors in ultra - long - term varieties are hard to reverse in the short term. One can lightly test long positions in varieties within 10 years if sentiment improves and avoid 30 - year varieties. It's recommended to wait and see on the unilateral strategy and prefer varieties within 10 years when market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may still tend to steepen [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating around $4200, and one can use the strategy of selling out - of - the - money option straddles to earn time value. Silver has weak physical delivery demand and limited upward momentum. Platinum and palladium price fluctuations have narrowed, and an intraday short - term high - selling and low - buying operation is recommended [2]. Shipping Index Futures - The EC (European Line) main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. Ferrous Metals - For steel, due to steel mill production cuts, a "long - rebar, short - iron ore" arbitrage is recommended, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar should be narrowed. Iron ore is expected to weaken from high - level oscillation as molten iron production drops and port inventories increase. For coking coal, with the expansion of price cuts in the origin and a decline in Mongolian coal prices, the futures price is in a weak downward trend. For coke, the first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trade price has led the decline. All are viewed with a bearish oscillation outlook [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper demand is weakening, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. Long - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can take profits on rallies. Alumina is oscillating around the industry's cash - cost bottom, with limited short - term downside. Aluminum is affected by macro - disturbances, and short - term long positions can be taken on dips. For zinc, due to export - driven tight spot supply, zinc prices are oscillating at a high level, and cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities should be noted. Tin has a strong fundamental situation and is oscillating at a high level, with the idea of holding previous long positions and going long on pullbacks [2]. New Energy - Industrial silicon futures prices have rebounded after a decline, and existing long positions can be held. Polysilicon futures opened lower and closed higher after new delivery brands were added, and it's advisable to wait and see. Lithium carbonate has strengthened again, but there are still large market differences [2]. Chemicals - PX has a tight medium - term supply - demand outlook and strong support. PTA has a near - strong and far - weak supply - demand pattern, with limited rebound space. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand outlook, and its processing fee is mainly compressed. Bottle - grade polyester chips continue to have a loose supply - demand pattern in December, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed. Ethanol is still searching for a bottom as port inventories continue to tighten and market sentiment is under pressure. Benzene is in a situation where the port is accumulating inventory, with near - term weakness and long - term strength [2]. Agricultural Products - Corn is under pressure as downstream receiving is sluggish. Palm oil is oscillating, and soybean oil has slightly declined following the external market. Sugar in the northern hemisphere's crushing season is progressing well. Cotton should be monitored according to the USDA supply - demand report. Eggs' production capacity is being reduced slowly. Apples' sales are slowing down. Red dates' supply pressure restricts the rebound of the futures price [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has cooled down from its upward trend and entered a period of oscillation. The aluminum market shows significant divergence, with the price expected to be macro - led and oscillate strongly. The zinc market presents opportunities for short - term long positions and cross - market reverse arbitrage. The lead market is expected to oscillate in the short term with potential long - term upside. The nickel and stainless - steel market remains under pressure. The tin market may face a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate strongly with limited upside. The polysilicon market is expected to continue oscillating [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Sentiment**: After reaching a high, copper prices declined and oscillated last week. The market is more concerned about the UK's income pressure, and the probability of interest rate cuts has increased [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak. Domestic refined copper production decreased in October, and consumption is sluggish. The inventory decreased last week [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Codelco lowered its production guidance, and some mines have resumed production [1]. - **Market Trend**: The copper market is dominated by funds. It is recommended to wait and see or use options for trading [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity of alumina increased slightly, and the price is in a weak state [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity is temporarily stable, with new domestic capacity under construction and overseas capacity expected to resume production [1]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream processing enterprises decreased slightly [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased. The spot premium and discount fluctuated slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: The market is macro - led and oscillates strongly, but the fundamental resonance is limited, and market divergence has intensified [1]. Zinc - **Market Trend**: The export window of zinc ingots is open, and the external market supports the domestic market [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory stopped falling, and the domestic smelter's profit is under pressure [1]. - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption is weak, but traders in the East China region are bullish [1]. - **Market Trend**: Short - term long positions can be considered, and attention should be paid to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. Lead - **Market Situation**: The LME lead inventory decreased, and the external market rebounds, supporting the domestic market [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost has increased [1]. - **Consumption**: The demand for lead - acid batteries is improving [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets are sluggish, with weak trading [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The overall nickel industry is over - supplied, and the market is in a downturn [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The premium of nickel decreased, and the inventory of related products changed slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: The nickel market is in a weak state [1]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The tin price oscillated last week, and the short - term decline attracted buying interest [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin supply is tight, and the overall inventory is at a low level [1]. - **Consumption**: Consumption lacks bright spots [1]. - **Market Trend**: It may be in a tight supply situation in the short term, but the long - term price support is weakening [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price rebounded rapidly, and the spot price was stable [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream enterprises are actively producing, and the battery orders are increasing [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased, and the price of Australian ore increased [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures and spot prices increased slightly [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is shrinking, and demand is weak overall [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate strongly with limited upside [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price oscillated and declined, and the spot price was stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory decreased slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to continue oscillating [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market faces supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. - The precious metals market is waiting for new drivers, forming a high - level oscillation platform, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. - Various metal markets, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., show different trends. For example, copper consumption is a concern, aluminum has short - term upward resistance but large market divergence, and zinc has opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3][4][7]. - Energy - related products like fuel oil and asphalt have different trends. Fuel oil is affected by crude oil, and asphalt is in a downward trend due to weak demand [21][22]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock products like pigs and eggs have their own market characteristics. For example, soybeans may have inventory reduction in Q1 next year, and pig prices may have a second bottom in H1 next year [36][41]. - Financial products like stocks and bonds also show specific trends. The stock market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term, and the bond market's yield curve steepening may end [48][49]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals Crude Oil - Last week, international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.36%. The US government shutdown impacts the employment and jet - fuel demand. The supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year needs to be released, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. Precious Metals - US economic data was stable last week, but the government shutdown brings uncertainties. The market is waiting for new drivers, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. Copper - Last Friday, copper prices oscillated negatively. The market focuses on copper consumption. China's un - wrought copper imports in October were low, and the US consumer confidence index was poor. Wait for the social inventory data and expect the previous up - rush to cool down. Wait and see [3]. Aluminum - On Friday, Shanghai aluminum prices declined. Since October, domestic inventory and spot performance have been neutral. Macroeconomic sentiment dominates, and the short - term upward resistance is around 21,800 yuan. The high index position reflects large market divergence, so beware of capital flow changes [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The Baotai ADC12 spot price is 20,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and tax policy adjustments are unclear. It follows aluminum price fluctuations and has no independent market for now [5]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply - surplus situation persists. The spot price decline slows but remains at a discount. It will operate weakly with limited rebound space [6]. Zinc - Domestic zinc ore supply is tightening, and smelting costs are rising. The zinc ingot export window is open, and domestic inventory is falling. There is an expectation of over 10,000 - ton delivery at LME. Consider cross - market reverse arbitrage and short - term long positions on Shanghai zinc, with the upper pressure at 23,200 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - LME lead inventory is decreasing, and the import window is closed. Domestic refineries are resuming production, with tight raw materials and strong cost support. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, with weak downstream demand. Although there are news of stainless - steel plant production cuts, the implementation needs to be observed. The inventory of pure nickel decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, while nickel - iron and stainless - steel inventory increased. Shanghai nickel is in a weak operation [9]. Tin - Last Friday, tin prices oscillated. There are differences in institutional inventory data. The tin market is in a game between short - term supply tightness and long - term supply stability. Tin prices are expected to decline with significant upper resistance. Consider short - selling strategies [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are rising again, with active trading. The total market inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 127,000 tons. The spot is supported, and the futures price is strengthening. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is affected by capacity - control policy expectations. In November, production cuts are expected in the southwest, and downstream silicon wafers are also reducing production. The inventory pressure relief is limited, and it will oscillate in the short term [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon production in Sichuan and Yunnan is at a low level during the dry season, and downstream polysilicon has seasonal production cuts. It shows a supply - demand weak pattern and will oscillate [13]. Steel Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On Friday night, steel prices oscillated weakly, and Tangshan billet prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. Rebar demand and production decreased, and the de - stocking slowed. Hot - rolled coil demand and production also declined, with a slight inventory increase. The market is under pressure, and pay attention to the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range [14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices declined last week. Global shipments are at a high level, and domestic arrivals have increased. Port inventory is rising. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel demand and iron - water production are decreasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated upward. After the third - round price increase, there is an expectation of a fourth - round increase. Coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated upward. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and terminal inventory increased slightly. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [17]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, while manganese silicon production is rising, and inventory is slowly increasing. The price has strong bottom support [18]. Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, but export and secondary demand are rising. Supply is high, and inventory is decreasing. The price has strong bottom support [19]. Shipping Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - Last week, the shipping order pressure existed, and the new SCFI European route price dropped by 1.6% week - on - week. In late November, the freight rate may rise. The upside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see. The fire at the TPP port may affect the rotation time of the Gemini European line [20]. Energy - Related Products Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market oscillates, mainly affected by crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong, but its continuous upward momentum is limited. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply will be more abundant in the medium - term. The spread between them may widen [21]. Asphalt - Asphalt has entered the off - season. The demand in the southwest and south can't offset the weakening in the north. Social inventory has been increasing year - on - year since late October. Refineries are cutting prices, and the market is bearish [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract oscillates narrowly. The chemical and combustion demand has increased, and the inventory rate of refineries and ports has decreased. The fundamentals support the LPG price [23]. Chemical Products Urea - Affected by the new export quota, urea prices rose over the weekend. Autumn fertilizer demand is ending, and production is high with limited inventory accumulation. India's new tender and domestic export liberalization boost the market, but be cautious when chasing long [24]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillate at a low level. Iranian gas restrictions are delayed, and port inventory is high and rising. Downstream product profits are poor, and demand is weak. It will oscillate weakly until the inventory inflection point [25]. Pure Benzene - Last week, pure benzene prices declined. Port inventory increased, and production rose. The market will consolidate in the short term and face import and demand risks in the medium term. Consider month - spread reverse arbitrage [26]. Styrene - Styrene has insufficient cost support, and the inventory is high. The price will remain weak [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene is affected by falling oil prices, and demand is weak. Polyethylene has stable factory prices but cautious downstream purchases. Polypropylene's e - commerce inventory demand is disappointing, and new supply is expected [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply is high, and inventory is rising. Demand is affected by weather and exports. It will operate at a low level. Caustic soda oscillates at a low level, with weak downstream demand [29]. PX and PTA - PX supply increased, and PTA load decreased. Polyester and weaving loads changed slightly. PTA may have inventory accumulation in the medium term. Consider reverse arbitrage [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol production increased slightly, and port inventory rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand will weaken. Consider reverse arbitrage, and watch for possible production cuts [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the spot market is good, but profits are squeezed. In mid - late November, demand will weaken. Bottle - chip demand is weakening, and capacity is excessive [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are weak. After the Shahe production halt, prices rose but at a slower pace. Inventory is decreasing, and costs are rising. The decline space is limited, and keep the short - put option [33]. Rubber 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil prices oscillate, and Thai rubber prices vary. Global rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and Chinese tire production and inventory changed slightly. Rubber inventory increased, and cost support is weak. Consider oversold - rebound strategies and cross - variety arbitrage [34]. Chemical Fertilizers Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rose slightly. Supply is high, and inventory is high. The demand for heavy soda decreased due to glass production cuts. It's hard to fall in the short term [35]. Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Last Friday night, soybean prices oscillated weakly. Importing US soybeans has no price advantage, and domestic soybean inventory may decrease in Q1 next year. Watch for USDA reports and possible long - buying opportunities [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US soybean prices declined. Palm oil rebounded, and it's necessary to watch if the rebound is sustainable. Consider the possibility of short - term stabilization of palm oil [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are under pressure due to low sales and limited export markets. Domestic prices will oscillate, and pay attention to Australian rapeseed imports [38]. Bean No. 1 - Bean No. 1 prices fell from a high level. The purchase of domestic soybeans by the state reserve may support the market. Watch for policy guidance [39]. Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable and rising slightly, and Shandong's supply increased. The import tax rate on US corn changed. The market will oscillate weakly at the bottom, and watch for new trade agreements [40]. Pigs - Pig prices were stable over the weekend. The sow inventory decreased in October. Future supply pressure is large, and prices may form a second bottom in H1 next year [41]. Eggs - Egg prices declined over the weekend, and sales were slow. The laying - hen inventory is high, and chick replenishment is low. Consider short - selling at high prices [42]. Cotton - US cotton prices declined. China's cotton procurement may increase. Domestic cotton cost supports the market, but demand is average. Watch for tariff changes and export improvements [43]. Sugar - US sugar prices oscillated. International sugar supply is abundant. In China, the focus is on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the outlook for Guangxi's production is good [44]. Apples - Apple prices oscillated widely. Apple inventory decreased, but the quality is poor, and the selling - reluctance is strong. Consider short - selling strategies [45]. Wood - Wood prices are weak. Supply import is limited due to high foreign prices, and demand supports the price. Inventory is low, and it's advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices oscillated upward. Port inventory decreased by 2.6% week - on - week. Demand is average, and the valuation is low. Consider long - buying at low prices or wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares oscillated and adjusted, with most futures contracts falling. The inflation data improved, and the US consumer confidence index was low. The stock market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Keep a mid - term focus on technology and advanced manufacturing and balance with cyclical and consumer sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures declined, and short - term Shibor rates rose. The export growth was lower than expected. The yield curve steepening may end [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as economic indicators, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper showed a positive line oscillation. Spot copper rose to 80,940 yuan, with premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong on the last trading day being 80 and 20 yuan respectively. The refined - scrap price difference widened to 2,000 yuan. SMM copper social inventory increased by 9,900 tons to 154,200 tons over the weekend. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the premium fluctuations of the call option with an exercise price of 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly corrected today, with the spot discount widening in various regions. The downstream start - up continued to pick up seasonally, and the aluminum ingot inventory is likely to remain low this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not yet shown an inflection point, increasing by 11,000 tons compared to last Thursday. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with oversupply and falling prices [2] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is at a low level of 50,500 tons, with a 0 - 3 month premium of $30.17 per ton. London zinc rebounded to the high - level range at the beginning of the year. Shanghai zinc is still dragged down by weak fundamentals and fluctuates narrowly above 22,000 yuan. The import loss of zinc compared to the spot exceeds 3,300 yuan per ton, and the expectation of zinc ingot exports is strengthening [3] Lead and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated at a low level. The short - covering retreat was triggered by the speculation of interest - rate cut expectations. The upstream price support of nickel has rebounded slightly, and the price level of the nickel industry chain has been pushed up. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 16,000 tons to 919,000 tons [6] Tin - Shanghai tin showed a positive line oscillation, with the spot tin price dropping to 273,300 yuan. Overseas, although the positions are still relatively concentrated, the position - volume risk has decreased. Domestic leading production capacity is under maintenance. Technically, there is resistance at 275,000 yuan for the domestic market and $35,000 for the overseas market. It is not recommended to chase long positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 3,200 tons to 36,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons. The price of lithium carbonate has a low - level support, and a short - term bullish view is taken [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon was boosted by coal - related news, reaching 9,000 yuan per ton during the day and then falling back to close at 8,800 yuan per ton. In September, the supply - side output is expected to increase by 5% month - on - month, while the downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are expected to have a slight decline in output. The short - term is expected to maintain a volatile operation [9] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon closed slightly down at 53,500 yuan per ton. Only a few enterprises have implemented production cuts, and the reduction range is limited. The main contract of polysilicon can be expected to oscillate in the range of 50,000 - 55,000 yuan per ton [10]