Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overall, the global trade situation is showing signs of improvement, with positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting upcoming. The macro - economic sentiment is stable and positive. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. Some metals face supply - side challenges, while others are affected by demand - side factors [1][16][20][24][28][59] - For copper, the macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The terminal consumption is weak, and the price is affected by multiple factors. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to bottom out in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience, with a medium - term upward trend. For zinc, the external market is strong, and the internal market is weak, and the export situation needs to be closely monitored. For lead, the inventory is low in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase in the long term. For nickel, the price is in a range - bound operation. For stainless steel, the price faces resistance. For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. For industrial silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. For polycrystalline silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. For lithium carbonate, the demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight, with a strong price trend [1][6][12][16][20][28][34][36][44][48][54][60][67][73][80] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 86,980 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. The spot premium widened. The Guangdong inventory decreased slightly, and the North China premium remained unchanged [1] - **Important Information**: China's central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading. Sino - US high - level interactions are being prepared. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. CMOC will invest in the KFM copper mine expansion. Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The SMM expects the October electrolytic copper production to decline. The consumption is weak, but there is still some resilience [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on dips. Hold the inter - market long position. Wait and see for options [10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell 8 yuan to 2,817 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions were stable, with some minor declines [6] - **Related Information**: Some enterprises made spot purchases. The national alumina inventory increased. The Australian alumina price decreased, and the import cost increased. The supply remained stable [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is in excess, and the pressure is increasing. The price is expected to bottom out in the short term and may rebound if production cuts expand. The import increment will suppress the price rebound [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the supply - side production cuts in November. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract fell 120 yuan to 21,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes [16] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held. The aluminum inventory increased slightly. An overseas aluminum smelter had a production cut [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation eases, and the macro sentiment is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience [20] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price has a medium - term upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21][22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract fell 110 yuan to 20,575 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions increased [24] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased. The import and export volumes of aluminum alloy changed [24][25] - **Trading Logic**: The macro factors are important. The cost is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience [28] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased slightly, but the downstream procurement was poor [31] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased. Teck's Q3 zinc concentrate production decreased. Chihong Zinc & Germanium released its Q3 report. Shengda Resources' subsidiary's mine will resume production [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the overseas inventory is low. The external market is strong, and the internal market is weak. The export situation needs to be closely monitored [34][36] - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see. Consider short - selling on rallies if the export volume is low. Consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to the export situation. Wait and see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.91% to 17,355 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [39] - **Related Information**: Some lead battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production. A lead smelter is under maintenance. The lead inventory decreased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term inventory is low, and the price rose. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory may gradually accumulate [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [45] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 1,760 to 120,560 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of some nickel types decreased [46] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's nickel production is expanding. A nickel mine in the Philippines may be shut down. India is expanding e - waste recycling. A company in Indonesia won a nickel mining contract [47] - **Logic Analysis**: The precious metal correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. The LME nickel inventory is increasing, and the price is range - bound [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a range - bound operation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [49][51] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 fell 65 to 12,750 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [53] - **Important Information**: Baosteel Desheng plans to reduce production and conduct maintenance. The export volume of stainless steel from Indonesia to Taiwan increased. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group remained unchanged [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is not optimistic, and the cost support is weak. The price faces resistance [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [55][56] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,170 yuan/ton, down 1,790 yuan/ton. The spot price increased, and the demand was affected by price fluctuations [58] - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade consultations are ongoing. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade situation may ease. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a high - level range - bound operation. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The September export volume of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The import volume decreased [64][66] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price is relatively stable [67] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips and wait for new drivers. No arbitrage opportunity for now. Sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69][70] Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Three construction projects of the Three Gorges Group released tender announcements [72] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polycrystalline silicon is expected to decrease in November, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. The price has support [73] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce long positions in the short term and buy on dips in the future. Conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts. Hold call options [74][75][76] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 560 to 81,640 yuan/ton. The spot price increased [79] - **Important Information**: Xinwangda launched a new battery. Pilbara's Q3 lithium concentrate production increased. The sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased [80] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight. The price trend is strong, but there may be a correction [80] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [81][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment tendencies. The trend intensities range from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with -1 indicating bearish, 0 indicating neutral, and 1 indicating bullish. Here are the trend intensities for each commodity: - PX: 1 [9] - PTA: 1 [9] - MEG: 0 [9] - Rubber: 1 [12] - Synthetic Rubber: 1 [19] - Asphalt: 0 [28] - LLDPE: 0 [38] - PP: 0 [42] - Caustic Soda: -1 [47] - Pulp: 0 [51] - Glass: 0 [56] - Methanol: 1 [62] - Urea: 0 [66] - Styrene: 0 [67] - Soda Ash: 0 [73] - LPG: 0 [80] - PVC: 0 [90] - Fuel Oil: 0 [91] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: 0 [91] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Not specified 2. Report's Core Viewpoints The report provides market analysis and trend forecasts for various energy and chemical commodities. The core viewpoints include: - Some commodities are expected to benefit from improved macro - economic sentiment and trade environment, such as PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, and methanol. - Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances and cost - related pressures, such as LLDPE, PVC, and urea. - Some commodities are in a state of shock or adjustment, such as asphalt, pulp, glass, and styrene. 3. Summary by Commodity Aromatics and Polyester Raw Materials - **PX**: In a stagflation environment in the US, demand expectations improve, and the PXN may continue to strengthen. It is recommended to hold long PXN, long PX, and short PTA positions [4][9]. - **PTA**: With the restart of some devices and improved demand expectations, the 9 - 1 reverse spread should be exited [4][9]. - **MEG**: Despite potential restrictions on ethane exports, the impact on supply is limited under a mild trade environment. Demand expectations improve, and the reverse spread should be exited [4][9]. Rubber - **Natural Rubber**: It is expected to be oscillating and slightly strengthening. The trend intensity is 1. The orders of semi - steel and full - steel tire enterprises show differentiation, and the inventory situation also varies [10][12][14]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Due to improved macro - sentiment, it is expected to rebound from a low valuation in the short term. The trend intensity is 1 [17][19]. Asphalt - It will continue to oscillate. The trend intensity is 0. The production and inventory of asphalt have changed slightly, and the BU - SC spread is oscillating at a high level after expansion [20][21][35]. Polyolefins - **LLDPE**: Do not chase short positions in the short term, but there is still pressure in the later period. The trend intensity is 0. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season [36][37]. - **PP**: The price has a slight decline, and the trading volume is average. The trend intensity is 0. The market price is partially warmer, and the downstream procurement is cautious [41][42]. Caustic Soda - It has a strong current situation but weak expectations. Attention should be paid to cost changes. The trend intensity is - 1. The short - term support comes from maintenance and alumina replenishment, but there are still supply and demand pressures in the medium term [44][46]. Pulp - It will operate in an oscillating manner. The trend intensity is 0. The price fluctuation is affected by factors such as futures decline, low - price rumors, and off - season demand [50][52]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is 0. The market supply and demand are weak, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see state [55][56]. Methanol - Due to improved macro - sentiment, it is expected to rebound from a low level in the short term. The trend intensity is 1. The inland and coastal markets show different trends, and the port inventory has accumulated [58][61]. Urea - In the short term, macro - benefits are released, but the medium - term pressure is still relatively large. The trend intensity is 0. The enterprise inventory is increasing, and the futures may rebound in the short term but face pressure in the medium term [63][64][66]. Styrene - It will be oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0. The downstream replenishment forms a positive feedback in the off - season, but the high profit stimulates high supply, and the port inventory is accumulating [67][68]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The trend intensity is 0. The supply is slightly reduced, and the downstream demand is weak [70][72]. LPG - With improved macro - expectations, the bottom support is strengthening. The trend intensity is 0. The futures prices of different contracts show different trends, and there are many PDH device maintenance plans [75][81]. PVC - Do not chase short positions in the short term, but the trend still has pressure. The trend intensity is 0. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the export sustainability is to be observed [87][88]. Fuel Oil - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It oscillates narrowly during the day and will enter an adjustment period in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is slightly strengthening in the short term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The trend intensity of both is 0 [91]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It oscillates at a high level, and the 10 - 12 reverse spread should be held. The European and US - West routes show different trends in freight rates [93][94].

Report Summary Report Title Methanol: Improved Macroeconomic Sentiment, Support for Volatility [1] Core View The macroeconomic sentiment for methanol has improved, and there is support for its price volatility. The spot prices in many regions continued to rise slightly, and the port inventory decreased [1][4]. Key Points by Section Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the methanol main contract (09 contract), the closing price was 2,365 yuan/ton (up 74 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 2,333 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan), the trading volume was 1,241,972 lots (up 475,526 lots), the open interest was 789,664 lots (up 25,613 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 8,380 tons (unchanged), and the trading value was 2,897,514 ten thousand yuan (up 1,149,010 ten thousand yuan). The basis was 140 (down 7), and the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was -60 (up 3) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,470 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), the Inner Mongolia price was 2,120 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), the northern Shaanxi price was 2,110 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan), and the Shandong price was 2,310 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. Spot News No specific content provided in the given text. Trend Intensity - The methanol trend intensity was 0. The methanol spot price index was 2,248.73, up 29.25. Among them, the Taicang spot price was 2,505, up 67, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2,137.5, up 32.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 12 cities saw varying degrees of price increases, with涨幅 ranging from 15 to 85 yuan/ton. The prices in many methanol markets continued the slight upward trend. The prices in the East China market rose strongly following the futures, the inland enterprise auction transactions had a small premium, the freight increased slightly due to the increasing delivery demand, the downstream procurement in the northwest was smooth, and the traders actively participated in the auctions, promoting the methanol market price to rise [4]. - As of May 14, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 48.39 tons, a decrease of 7.80 tons from the previous period. The inventory in the East China region decreased by 5.55 tons, and the inventory in the South China region decreased by 2.25 tons [4].

Group 1: Market Overview - The macro sentiment has improved, leading to a systematic rebound in commodities and valuation recovery[1] - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed at 161.76, up 1.41%, with a net capital inflow of 4.012 billion[2] Group 2: Silicon Iron Analysis - The price of 72 silicon iron is reported at 5350-5500 CNY/ton, while 75 silicon iron is at 5850-6000 CNY/ton[1] - Hebei Steel's procurement of 75B silicon iron in May increased by 20.5% to 2135 tons compared to April[1] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts remained stable at 19048, with a total of 96248 tons[1] Group 3: Manganese Silicon Analysis - Manganese ore prices are on the rise, with semi-carbonate at Tianjin Port priced at 33.5-34 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon prices have slightly increased, with northern reports at 5600-5700 CNY/ton and southern reports at 5650-5750 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 587 to 118693, with a total of 602935 tons[7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The 2509 manganese silicon contract closed at 5864, up 0.62%, with a net capital inflow of 12.27 million[8] - The daily K-line for manganese silicon shows a small upward trend, indicating potential upward momentum[8] Group 5: Strategic Insights - The industry is experiencing significant losses, leading to substantial production cuts[4] - The supply-demand mismatch is narrowing, accelerating inventory reduction[4]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 2.5% at 2,996 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.56% at 3,518 yuan/ton [1] - After the first round of China-US negotiations issued a joint statement, the macro sentiment warmed up, and the international oil price rebounded, driving up downstream products including fuel oil [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the positive progress of tariff negotiations improved the demand expectation on the shipping side, which was beneficial to the consumption of marine fuel oil [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the important driver in the future comes from the increasing demand for power generation in the Middle East and other regions, and the current purchasing momentum is good. However, Egypt will receive an FSRU from Germany in July, which will reduce the local power plants' substitution demand for high-sulfur fuel oil [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the easing of global trade conflicts is beneficial to demand, but the trend of consumption share being replaced continues. The ECA area that came into effect in May led to a decline in the demand for low-sulfur marine fuel oil in Europe and affected the Asia-Pacific market through the increase in arbitrage cargo volume. In addition, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the mid-term fundamental contradiction has not been completely resolved [1] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: expected to fluctuate [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: expected to fluctuate [2] - Cross-variety: no strategy [2] - Cross-period: pay attention to the opportunity to go long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices, and the previous long positions can take appropriate profits [2] - Spot-futures: no strategy [2] - Options: no strategy [2] Group 3: Figures - Figures include the spot prices, swap near-month contracts, and near-month spreads of Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, as well as the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures contracts [3]