收入小幅增长，看好钢铁反内卷对企业盈利的边际修复 鸿路钢构25H1 实现收入105.5 亿，同比+2.17%，实现归母净利润为2.88亿，同比-32.7%，扣非净利润为 2.38 亿，同比+0.88%，非经常性损益为0.5亿，同比减少1.42 亿；Q2 单季来看，公司实现收入57.35 亿，同比-2.78%，归母、扣非净利润分别为1.51、1.23 亿，同比-32.61%、-17%。我们仍看好钢铁反内 卷有望带动钢价上行，或对企业的加工费及吨净利带来边际修复。 25H1 公司期间费用率为6.61%，同比-0.05pct，销售、管理、研发、财务费用率分别为0.6%、1.43%、 2.95%、1.64%，同比+0.05、0、-0.26、+0.15pct，资产及信用减值损失同比减少0.15 亿，所得税同比减 少0.35 亿，综合影响下净利率2.72%，同比-1.42pct，Q2 净利率同比下滑1.17pct 至2.63%。 考虑到上半年压力较大，我们下调公司盈利预测，预计公司25-27 年归母净利润为8.1、9.4、10.9 亿 （前值为8.7、10.2、12.2 亿），对应PE 为15、13、11 倍，维持"买入 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][18]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 10.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.17%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 32.7% to 288 million [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for profit recovery due to the steel industry's "anti-involution" measures, which may lead to an increase in steel prices and improve processing fees and net profit per ton [1][3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 810 million, 940 million, and 1.09 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 [1]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.55 billion, with a net profit of 288 million, reflecting a significant decline in profitability [1]. - The second quarter saw a revenue of 5.735 billion, a decrease of 2.78% year-on-year, with net profits dropping by 32.61% [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 10%, down by 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross profit of 470 yuan per ton, a decline of 85 yuan [3]. Product Segment Performance - Revenue from various product segments in the first half of 2025 included H-beams (5.8 billion), box-type columns (2 billion), and other components, with mixed performance across segments [2]. - The company has been investing in smart manufacturing technologies, including advanced production lines and robotic systems, to enhance operational efficiency [2]. Financial Metrics - The company’s financial metrics indicate a slight decrease in expense ratios, with a total expense ratio of 6.61% in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The cash flow from operations was negative at -198 million, primarily due to an increase in inventory [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 23.6 billion, with a net profit of 811.5 million, reflecting a growth rate of 5.08% [5][12]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned in the construction decoration and specialized engineering industry, with a focus on transitioning to intelligent steel structure manufacturing [6]. - The report suggests that the ongoing supply-side reforms in the steel industry could positively impact the company’s performance if steel prices rise [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.25 [1][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a profit growth in H1 2025 despite a challenging operating environment in the steel industry, with a net profit of RMB 1.463 billion, representing an 18.63% year-on-year increase [7]. - The report anticipates that the implementation of anti-involution policies in the steel industry will further boost the company's performance [7][9]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 28.944 billion, down 14.06% year-on-year, while Q2 revenue was RMB 14.592 billion, down 13.18% year-on-year but up 1.66% quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The company's high-end product sales reached 1.3372 million tons, accounting for 29.77% of total steel sales, with a gross margin of 20.26%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Industry Outlook - The steel industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as the market bottomed out in Q3 2024, with a strategic shift towards anti-involution measures anticipated in 2025 [9]. - The average daily pig iron output in H1 2025 was approximately 2.355 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, indicating that production cuts related to anti-involution policies have not yet been fully implemented [9]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 0.37, with expected EPS growth to RMB 0.45 in 2026 and RMB 0.49 in 2027 [6][10]. - The report maintains the profit forecast for the company, with net profit estimates of RMB 2.310 billion for 2025, RMB 2.745 billion for 2026, and RMB 3.029 billion for 2027 [6][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The expectation for the recovery of steel profitability under the "anti-involution" trend is primarily driven by upstream iron ore concessions, contrasting with the previous cycle where concessions came from downstream [2][6] - The anticipated improvement in the steel industry's supply-demand balance could enhance long-term profitability, although there are ongoing doubts about the sustainability of this recovery [6][28] - The analysis indicates that the profit distribution within the industry chain has shifted significantly, with iron ore now having a stronger capacity to offer concessions, which could benefit the steel sector [7][29] Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - Downstream demand has weakened, with apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 3.60% year-on-year but decreasing by 2.06% month-on-month [5] - Daily average pig iron production has slightly increased to 2.4066 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 12.04% [5] - Total steel inventory has continued to accumulate, with a week-on-week increase of 3.01% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.13% [5] Price Trends - Recent price trends show Shanghai rebar dropping to 3,300 CNY/ton, a decrease of 30 CNY/ton, and hot-rolled steel at 3,430 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton [5] - The estimated profit for rebar is 37 CNY/ton, while the profit based on a one-month lag in costs is 243 CNY/ton [5] Future Projections - The report projects that if the supply-demand gap improves by 50 million tons, the average price of rebar could increase by 164.87 CNY/ton [7] - A decrease in iron ore prices by 15 USD/ton could lead to a reduction in steel production costs by 210 CNY/ton [7] - The overall expectation is that iron ore price declines will primarily benefit the steel sector, with only a small portion passed on to downstream industries [7][29] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from cost reductions due to new capacities in iron and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Baosteel [28] 2. Stocks with low price-to-book ratios that may see significant performance recovery, like New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [29] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform initiative [29] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource companies, particularly in the context of macroeconomic recovery expectations [29]

钢铁反内卷深度：枕戈待旦 - 钢铁行业 2025 年度中期投 资策略 20250803 摘要 今年（2025 年）钢铁行业的盈利前景相对乐观，主要得益于成本端的改善。 上半年，由于焦煤现货价格持续下跌，中游钢铁冶炼环节利润不断扩张，许多 钢企的业绩和报表同比好转。下半年，随着西芒渡铁矿等大型矿山投产，其成 本位于成本曲线中位数水平，一期产能为 1.2 亿吨，占全球铁矿石供应格局的 3-4%。这将导致铁矿石成本曲线向左倾斜，从而削弱其成本支撑逻辑。因此， 无论是焦煤还是铁矿石，都将继续为中游钢铁冶炼提供让利空间。 钢铁行业未来两年的盈利情况会如何变化？ 钢铁行业在今年（2025 年）和明年（2026 年）的盈利情况预计会比 2020 年 更好。这种改善主要源自内生性的周期性上下游生态链变化，而非需求端的大 幅提升。尽管这种好转速度可能不如 2017 年或 2021 年，但其确定性非常高。 此外，反内卷政策从供给端入手，将整体均价中枢上移，这一驱动力虽然较温 和，但会夯实基本面的好转，并推动企业个股层面的分化。 反内卷政策对钢铁行业有何影响？ 在供给侧改革 2.0 时代，高质量发展成为主旋律。好的企业、高端品种将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by infrastructure and resource sectors, with significant gains in various stocks, particularly in the hydropower and coal industries [1][2][4][6][8]. Infrastructure Sector - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has been approved, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is six times the annual investment amount in Tibet. This project is expected to significantly boost infrastructure development in the western region and promote clean energy [6]. - Key companies benefiting from this project include China Energy Engineering, China Power Construction, and various construction and engineering firms, with many stocks hitting their daily limit [4][6]. Resource Sector - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with companies like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huahua Energy reaching their daily limit. The market is reacting to rumors of regulatory changes aimed at stabilizing coal supply [8][10]. - The overall coal market is characterized by strong seasonal demand and tightening supply, with expectations of continued price increases due to high temperatures and increased purchasing activity [10]. Steel Sector - The steel sector is also performing well, with companies like Fangda Special Steel and Xining Special Steel hitting their daily limit. The industry is undergoing supply-side reforms, which are expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the medium to long term [11][13]. - Despite current challenges, the steel demand is anticipated to remain stable, supported by infrastructure investment and manufacturing growth [13]. Alcohol Sector - The liquor sector has rebounded, with stocks like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu rising over 5%. The sector is seeing a recovery in valuations as investor sentiment improves [15][17]. - Companies are focusing on market health and inventory reduction, while also planning for international expansion and targeting younger consumers [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The market's focus on the "anti-involution" policy is high, with steel being a key industry for this initiative due to its large scale, strong externalities, and current low profitability [2][5] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address the supply-demand imbalance in the steel industry, which is crucial for long-term profitability stability [6][7] - The current environment shows a rapid rebound in steel prices and profitability, driven by the "anti-involution" policy and positive expectations in the real estate sector [4] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Steel consumption has decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 3.55% and a month-on-month decline of 1.54% [4] - Daily average rebar sales dropped to 99,300 tons, down by 750 tons per day from the previous week [4] - The average daily pig iron output fell to 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons per day [4] Profitability and Pricing - The total inventory of steel has slightly decreased, with a week-on-week change of -0.02% [4] - Shanghai rebar prices increased to 3,240 CNY/ton, up by 60 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled prices rose to 3,310 CNY/ton, up by 40 CNY/ton [4] - The estimated profit per ton of rebar is 228 CNY, indicating a stable profit margin [4] Challenges in Implementation - The execution of the "anti-involution" policy is expected to be more challenging than the previous capacity reduction in 2016 due to limited demand-side stimulus [7] - The current capacity is mostly compliant, making it harder to eliminate excess capacity compared to the past [7] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: 1. Companies with strong operational flexibility due to favorable supply-demand conditions [29] 2. Stocks with low price-to-book ratios that may see significant performance recovery [30] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under state-owned enterprise reforms [30] 4. High-quality processing and resource companies that are well-positioned in the market [30]