证券日报网讯 1月6日，保利发展在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，当前房地产行业仍处于波动调整 期，公司经营状况也受到一定影响。面对市场变化，公司灵活调整经营策略，以巩固经营安全为首要目 标，不断推进存量去化和综合处置、提升增量项目投资确定性。随着公司经营策略的扎实推进，销售结 构和资产结构已得到一定优化，预计在增量项目进入交付周期后陆续反映为结转业绩的变化。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Summary of Hisense Home Appliances Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hisense Home Appliances - **Industry**: Home Appliances, specifically focusing on air conditioning, refrigerators, and washing machines Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - The central air conditioning business is under pressure in the real estate market, particularly in the refined decoration sector, with a potential decline of 15-20% expected [2][5] - Domestic sales (C-end and public construction) are anticipated to see slight growth, while external sales of refrigerators and washing machines are projected to grow in double digits [2][4] - Orders for processing products are expected to show a turning point in December, with a return to positive growth by the end of 2026 or early 2027 [2][3][5] Financial Performance and Projections - The company faces challenges in achieving its annual performance targets, aiming to unlock nearly 100% of its equity incentive goals [2][5] - For 2026, domestic sales will focus on enhancing product strength and cost competitiveness, while external sales are expected to grow by over 10% with improved profit margins [2][5] - The net profit margin for the central air conditioning business is stable, estimated between 6-10% [4][12] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to enhance its foundational capabilities by reducing SKU counts, integrating R&D platforms, and improving procurement efficiency to boost single product profitability [2][6] - Expansion of proprietary channel stores and strengthening of lower-tier channel construction are key strategies [2][7] - The company is optimistic about long-term growth in emerging markets, driven by increasing appliance penetration and favorable demographic trends [4][10] External Market Dynamics - The impact of national subsidy policy reduction on price competition is not straightforward; the company does not expect significant price increases despite subsidy reductions [6] - The company is focusing on structural products that benefit from subsidies, such as high-end air conditioning and fresh air systems [7] Profitability and Cost Management - External sales profitability recovery is primarily driven by gross margin improvements, with a 0.5 percentage point increase in profit margin expected, of which 0.3 percentage points come from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [8] - The processing product orders are gradually reducing inventory, indicating a potential recovery in sales [9] Regional Performance - The European market accounts for over 30% of the overall structure for air conditioning and refrigerators, with emerging markets like ASEAN and Central-South America showing significant growth potential despite seasonal fluctuations [10][11] - The company aims to increase overseas revenue contribution to over 20% within 3 to 5 years, leveraging new production capabilities [11] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a modest growth in the C-end market for new housing and second-hand demand, with a projected growth of around 10% in 2025 and single-digit growth in 2026 [18] - The new fresh air conditioning products are expected to have a gross margin advantage of at least 10 percentage points over non-fresh air products [21] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to maintain a minimum dividend payout ratio of 50% and will consider increasing this ratio in the future [17] Additional Important Insights - The company is actively working on balancing cooperation and competition with Midea, focusing on resource optimization and market penetration strategies [15][16] - The integration of logistics and procurement strategies with Midea is progressing well, although details on overseas collaborations remain limited [14]

Group 1: Industry and Company Capacity Utilization - The overall kiln opening rate in the industry is low this year, influenced by market demand and order conditions [2] - The company has not yet planned to establish production bases abroad, but will disclose any future arrangements according to regulations [3] Group 2: Market Competition and Strategic Adjustments - The industry is experiencing a slow capacity clearance primarily driven by market competition, with limited short-term impact from environmental policies [4] - The company's strategic engineering business related to the real estate sector has significantly declined due to the market entering a stock phase, leading to a substantial decrease in tile orders [4] Group 3: Financial Performance and Cost Management - The company's gross profit margin has improved quarterly, but the potential for further cost reduction is diminishing as the industry transitions from growth to competition [5] - The company reported a revenue of 297,702.09 thousand yuan from distribution business, accounting for 83.65% of total revenue, while strategic engineering business revenue was 48,676.52 thousand yuan, making up 16.35% [7] Group 4: Pricing Trends and Future Outlook - The decline in product prices during the first three quarters was due to strategic pricing adjustments to boost sales and manage inventory [5] - Despite recent adjustments in the real estate market, the domestic real estate sector still holds significant demand, and the company aims to enhance brand appeal through continuous product innovation [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target valuation range of HKD 17.62 to HKD 18.35 per share, indicating a potential upside of 22.5% to 27.6% from the current price of HKD 14.67 [5][3]. Core Insights - The company has a stable foundation in its infrastructure and environmental sectors, particularly in toll roads and water services, while awaiting marginal improvements in real estate and tobacco sectors [1][2]. - The real estate segment reported a loss of HKD 236 million in 2024 due to impairment losses on property projects, despite holding quality land resources totaling 4.2 million square meters [2]. - The consumer segment, which includes leading companies in tobacco and printing, has shown signs of recovery, with net profit for Nanyang Tobacco increasing by 86% year-on-year to HKD 560 million in 2024 [2]. - The company has successfully generated significant cash flow through the sale of a 19.5% stake in Yuefeng Environmental, amounting to HKD 2.33 billion, which may lead to increased dividends [2]. - The company is considered undervalued with a high dividend yield compared to peers in the Hong Kong market [2]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 2.943 billion, HKD 3.084 billion, and HKD 3.197 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 4.8%, 4.8%, and 3.7% [3][4]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are 5.0, 4.7, and 4.6 times, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry standards [3][4]. - The report highlights a stable revenue forecast, with expected revenues of HKD 29.711 billion in 2025, showing a slight increase from 2024 [4]. Business Segments Overview - The infrastructure and environmental segment remains robust, with the company holding 100% stakes in three major toll roads in Shanghai, which have shown stable traffic and revenue growth [1][40]. - The water services segment, comprising two platforms, has a combined daily treatment capacity exceeding 20 million tons, ranking among the top in the country [1][49]. - The real estate segment has faced challenges, with a significant decline in revenue and profitability due to market conditions and impairment losses [2][21]. - The consumer segment is recovering, with improved sales and profitability driven by international expansion and operational optimizations [2][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 22.08 CNY, based on a projected average P/E ratio of 16 times for comparable companies in 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is facing pressure on quarterly performance, with a notable decline in Q1 2025 net profit by 22.8% year-on-year, attributed to fluctuations in raw material prices [8]. - The sales structure is improving, with export and overseas sales revenue reaching 10.73 billion CNY in 2024, a 14.19% increase, accounting for 49.2% of total tire product revenue [8]. - The company plans to invest 8.71 billion CNY in building a third factory in Brazil, expected to generate annual revenue of 7.758 billion CNY and net profit of 1.213 billion CNY upon completion [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 20.165 billion CNY in 2023 to 32.820 billion CNY by 2027, with a CAGR of 18.6% in 2023 and 26.4% in 2025 [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1.391 billion CNY in 2023 to 2.692 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 376.9% in 2023 [6][10]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 20.7% to 21.2% from 2025 to 2027, despite fluctuations in raw material costs [6][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous high growth in its performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by the buoyancy in the shipbuilding industry, with increasing orders for diesel engines and robust production and sales of low-speed engines. The company's profitability has improved due to cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures. The proportion of high-quality orders in new contracts has increased, indicating a positive trend in sales structure optimization and profitability potential [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 51.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.391 billion yuan, up 78.43%. In Q1 2025, the revenue was 12.311 billion yuan, a 7.98% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 396 million yuan, surging 348.96% [4][9]. Business Segments - The core subsidiary, China Shipbuilding Diesel Engine, reported a revenue of 23.746 billion yuan and an operating profit of 2.3 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.054 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 397%. The company has optimized its order-taking strategy, leading to an increase in high-quality orders and a rise in low-speed engine order prices [9][10]. Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its presence in deep-sea and data center backup power sectors, which are expected to provide new growth momentum. The revenue from data center backup power increased by 22% year-on-year, with new orders rising by 44%. The company has also secured significant contracts in the deep-sea sector, indicating a strong market position [9][10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.45 billion yuan and 3.2 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19 times and 15 times. The long-term outlook remains positive, with anticipated benefits from advancements in AI and robotics [9][10].