Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January - May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 760,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with positive year - on - year growth from January to April. The good performance of net export data mainly stems from the Shanghai - London ratio limiting imports rather than outstanding export data [3][43]. - In 2024, direct exports to the US accounted for 3.7% of the total export volume. Assuming the extreme scenario of re - export trade, the US's indirect imports from China accounted for 7.8%. Thus, the US's maximum dependence on Chinese aluminum products could reach 11.5% [4][19][43]. - If the re - export trade of Chinese aluminum products to the US is completely restricted, based on 2025 data, direct exports to the US would decline by 1.8%, and the consumption of aluminum elements in China would only decline by 0.2% [5][24][43]. - Regarding the 24% tariff window on China, starting from May 14th, if goods arrive in the US and clear customs before August 11th, they can be exempted from the 24% tariff. Assuming the fastest clearance time of 15 days, China's rush to export can last until the end of July [5][40][45]. - There is no need to overly focus on the US's impact on China's consumption. Even with the pre - consumption caused by the rush to export, attention should be paid to the consumption resilience of other developed regions and the consumption growth of third - world countries [6][27][45]. - The pre - consumption caused by the rush to export may lead to a decline in later consumption, but the steepness of the decline may be less than expected. In the context of limited supply, as long as the year - on - year consumption of aluminum increases, the overall positive trend remains unchanged [6][45] Summary by Directory Export Data Analysis - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 760,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with positive year - on - year growth from January to April. This was mainly due to the decrease in net imports of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy affected by the Shanghai - London ratio. From January to May, the cumulative net exports of aluminum products were 2.12 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The cancellation of export tax rebates for Chinese aluminum products since November 2024 had a substantial impact on exports. However, the monthly decline in net exports of aluminum products in the first half of the year narrowed, which was related to the rush to export during the tariff window. Due to the additional tariffs imposed by the US on steel and aluminum imports, the actual export was more difficult, and the rush to export was mainly in the form of end - products [12]. US's Direct and Indirect Dependence on Chinese Aluminum Products - Using sample data from 2021 - 2024, which accounted for about 24% of the total export volume, it was estimated that in 2024, direct exports to the US accounted for 3.7% of the total export volume, and indirect imports from China accounted for 7.8% under the extreme re - export scenario, with a maximum dependence of 11.5%. If the US imposes tariffs globally, the impact on China's aluminum export consumption is limited under the condition that US consumption does not decline. The biggest impact comes from the re - inflation problem caused by tariffs. Chinese aluminum products can be compensated through re - export trade. From January to May 2025, China's total exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 1.67 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2% (130,000 tons), mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. The direct export to the US in 2024 was 61,000 tons, while from January to May 2025, it was only 11,000 tons, and the proportion of direct exports to the US dropped to 1.9%. The direct impact of tariffs on exports to the US was only 1.8%. Since the US import data for 2025 has not been released, the impact of re - export has not been evaluated [15][19]. - Based on the aluminum element calculation, in 2024, China's aluminum element supply was 55.75 million tons, and exports accounted for about 12% of China's aluminum consumption. If the US completely stops relying on Chinese aluminum products, the consumption of aluminum elements in China will decline by 1.4%. In reality, on the basis of stable US consumption, re - export trade is difficult to restrict, and US trade actions alone are unlikely to significantly impact China's aluminum consumption [20][24]. Attention to Third - World Consumption Growth after Tariff - Affected Rush to Export - According to customs data, from January to June, China's cumulative exports of automobiles (including chassis) reached 3.473 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 18.6%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative exports of automobiles from January to June were 3.078 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.3%. Both data sources show a monthly growth trend in exports, and the monthly exports of components also show a recovery trend [27]. - There is no need to overly focus on the US's impact on China's consumption. The export price of Yiwu small commodities remains high, and although the US price in the container shipping price index has dropped significantly, the comprehensive price index is still good. Therefore, attention should be paid to the consumption resilience of other developed regions and the consumption growth of third - world countries. From January to May, China's cumulative exports of wire and cable were 1.23 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to rise, showing a continuous growth trend in recent years. The rapid development of developing countries will drive the export and consumption of China's infrastructure products [27]. Rush - to - Export Time Point under US Tariff Window - Since January 20, 2025, when Trump officially took office as the US President, the tariff war began. With the implementation of tariff executive orders such as those related to fentanyl, the US imposed a maximum tariff of 145% on Chinese goods. After the Geneva negotiations on May 12th, 91% of the reciprocal tariffs were cancelled, and the 24% tariff on China was suspended for 90 days, reducing the tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US to 30%. However, for aluminum products, due to the US's consecutive increases in steel and aluminum tariffs, even after the Geneva talks, Chinese aluminum products still face a high tariff of 104% when exported to the US [40]. - Starting from May 14th, if goods arrive in the US and clear customs before August 11th, they can be exempted from the 24% tariff. Considering the fastest shipping time from China's coastal areas to the US West Coast (about 12 days) and the estimated fastest clearance time of 15 days, China's rush to export can last until the end of July [40]. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the export situation of Chinese aluminum products, the US's dependence on Chinese aluminum products, the impact of tariff policies, the rush - to - export time point, and the focus on consumption in other regions [43][45].

Group 1: Consumer Goods - The core consumer goods include electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers, primarily targeting high-end markets in Europe and the US [3] - In March 2025, US retail sales increased by 1.4%, surpassing market expectations of 1.3%, with core retail sales rising by 0.5% [3] - The increase in March retail data is attributed to preemptive consumer purchasing ahead of tariff impositions, which may lead to a decline in future retail performance due to demand being pulled forward [3] - Consumer confidence in the US fell by 6.2 percentage points to 50.8 in April, the lowest level since July 2022, indicating potential pressure on future retail data [3] Group 2: Capital Goods - The export characteristics of industrial sewing machines show Asia as the largest market, accounting for 68% of export value in 2024, with key countries including Turkey, Vietnam, and Singapore [5] - Forklift exports are primarily directed towards Asia and Europe, with respective export value shares of 30% and 34% in 2024 [5] - Machine tool exports are predominantly to Asia, maintaining around 50% of export value from 2019 to 2024, with notable fluctuations in exports to Russia [5] - Mining machinery exports are led by Asia, Africa, and Europe, with cumulative export value shares of 41%, 22%, and 20% respectively in the first quarter of 2025 [5] Group 3: Engineering Machinery - Cumulative export value of engineering machinery grew by 10% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, with Africa showing the highest growth rate at 128% [6] - The cumulative export value to Asia accounted for 43% of total exports, while exports to Africa increased significantly, raising its share to 19% [6] - In March 2025, the export growth rates for major engineering machinery categories were 6% for general machinery, 14% for excavators, 21% for tractors, and 24% for mining machinery [9] - Cumulative growth rates for these categories in the first quarter of 2025 were 10% for general machinery, 22% for excavators, 31% for tractors, and 18% for mining machinery [9]

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Group 1: Company Analysis - Lu'an Huanneng is identified as a leading enterprise in the blowing coal sector, characterized by pure business operations and high elasticity. Despite being in a downward coal price cycle, the company's current price-to-book (PB) ratio presents value, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 2.62 billion, 2.14 billion, and 3.03 billion yuan, translating to earnings per share (EPS) of 0.87, 0.71, and 1.01 yuan respectively. The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 13, 16, and 11 times, leading to an "overweight" rating [2] - Bailing Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 27.675 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 9.32% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 292.73% to 1.567 billion yuan. The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in consumer spending, with net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted to 473 million and 519 million yuan, respectively, and a new forecast for 2027 set at 565 million yuan [19] Group 2: Industry Insights - The impact of the US-China tariff conflict on domestic electricity consumption is deemed limited. The electric machinery and equipment manufacturing sector, which has a significant export volume to the US, shows that tariff changes will not substantially affect overall electricity demand. Historical data from July 2018 to January 2020 indicates that the hydropower sector outperformed, while thermal power slightly lagged but still surpassed wind, solar, and nuclear power sectors. Recommended stocks include Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy in the hydropower sector, and Huadian International and Anhui Energy in the thermal power sector [6] - The recent tariff imposition by the US has led to a preemptive increase in consumer purchasing behavior, with March retail sales in the US showing a month-on-month growth of 1.4%, a significant rise from February's 0.2%. However, this surge may lead to a potential weakening of future retail demand, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance in the short term [15]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The large-scale tariffs implemented by Trump in early April 2025 led to a surge in consumer purchases in March, resulting in a month-on-month retail growth rate of +1.4%, a significant increase from February's +0.2% [2] - However, this front-loading of consumer demand may lead to a weakening of future retail data, indicating potential risks for upcoming consumption trends [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The real estate sector is identified as the largest driver of domestic demand, with a recommendation for strategic investment in the real estate supply chain, including leading companies such as Beike-W, China State Construction, and major cement and glass producers like Conch Cement and Qibin Group [3] - The report suggests that these companies are positioned well due to the cyclical bottoming and improving profitability, alongside potential policy support [3] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - The IEA and OPEC have lowered their oil demand forecasts for 2025, yet there is a strong outlook for the "three oil giants" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) due to their low valuations, high dividends, and resilient performance [4] - The report also highlights opportunities in domestic substitutes for semiconductor materials and panel materials, as well as in the pesticide and fertilizer sectors [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - For Shida Shenghua, the report anticipates a decline in profitability for 2024 due to the low demand in the lithium battery sector, with net profits projected to drop significantly in 2025 and 2026 [5] - Despite this, the company is expanding its production capacity for electrolyte products, which may provide growth opportunities in the future [5] Group 5: Coal Industry - Lu'an Environmental Energy is recognized as a leading producer of injection coal, with a strong business model and high elasticity, despite current coal price declines [7] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 2.62 billion, 2.14 billion, and 3.03 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.87, 0.71, and 1.01 yuan [7] Group 6: High-End Manufacturing - Su Shi Testing is facing short-term performance pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 4.31% in 2024, but is expected to benefit from recovering downstream demand and new industry layouts [8] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.04 billion, 3.81 billion, and 4.62 billion yuan, indicating potential recovery [8] Group 7: Renewable Energy - Guoneng Rixin is expected to maintain steady growth, with a projected net profit of 0.94 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 11.09% year-on-year increase [9] - The company is advancing its product upgrades and is well-positioned to meet increasing demand in the distributed energy sector [9] Group 8: Electrical Equipment - Huaming Equipment reported an 18.41% increase in revenue for 2024, with net profits rising by 13.25% [10] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence and is expected to achieve net profits of 7.09 billion, 8.09 billion, and 9.15 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [10] Group 9: Communication Technology - Hengwei Technology has revised its net profit forecasts downward for 2025 and 2026, but maintains a positive long-term growth outlook [11] - The projected net profits for 2027 are expected to reach 2.41 billion yuan, indicating potential recovery [11] Group 10: Beverage Industry - Dongpeng Beverage reported a strong start to 2025, with a revenue increase of 39.23% in Q1 and a net profit growth of 47.62% [12] - Future net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 4.483 billion, 5.684 billion, and 6.836 billion yuan, suggesting robust growth potential [12] Group 11: Catalyst and Advanced Materials - Zhongzi Technology's catalyst business is expected to benefit from the implementation of the National VII standards, with a strategic focus on high-end composite materials [13] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are -0.27 billion, 0.57 billion, and 2.38 billion yuan, indicating a potential turnaround [13]