中期分红在路上，近期多家国有大行实施大额中期分红。以中证红利指数成份股为例，数据显示12月以来，已经有6家成份上市公司实施派息或即将派息。 另据数据统计，截至12月11日，中证红利指数共计43家成份股发布中期分红计划，现金分红总额3644亿元。 随着上市公司稳定、持续推进分红，相关ETF分红也相对较为连续。以中证红利ETF（515080）为例，自上市以来该ETF已经累计分红14次，每十份累计分 红金额3.65元。 今年以来中证红利ETF（515080）采取季度评估分红节奏，前三季度分红比例分别为1.01%、0.99%、0.95%，近期该ETF也即将迎来四季度评估分红结果。 | | 中证红利ETF（515080）今年以来分红概览 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收益分配基准日 | 单位分红(元) | 分红比例(%) | | 2025/9/2 | 0.015 | 0.95 | | 2025/5/30 | 0.015 | 0.99 | | 2025/3/4 | 0.015 | 1.01 | 值得关注的是，二级市场上，近期红利板块随大市调整，中证红利全收益相对万得全A40日收益差再度跌破零轴，或意 ...

朋友们，周一好，今天，"牛市旗手"再度崛起！ 12月8日，A股券商股再度拉升，兴业证券直线涨停，东北证券涨超7%。另外，以光通信为代表的算力链和商业航天板块表现强劲，中际旭创、天孚通 信、长光华芯、源杰科技、仕佳光子、东田微等个股大涨，盘中股价均创历史新高。 商业航天板块近期持续上涨，机构认为是板块迎来"政策面、业绩 面、技术面"三重拐点。 截至发稿，上证指数上涨0.65%，深证成指上涨1.40%，创业板指上涨2.64%。 消息面上，会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革 攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转 型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 A股市场迎来了一系列政策和市场层面的利好，为市场情绪和长期发展提供了支撑。星图金融研究院认为，本周，A股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies, encouraging long-term investments in specific equity indices and stocks, while highlighting the potential for a significant increase in equity allocation space due to these adjustments [2][3]. Group 1: Risk Factor Adjustments - The risk factors for holding stocks in the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 indices for over three years, as well as for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board for over two years, have been reduced to 90% [3]. - This adjustment is seen as a policy to encourage long-term capital entry into the market, particularly benefiting state-owned insurance companies that have already allocated a high proportion of new premiums to the market [3]. - The reduction in risk factors is expected to release an equity allocation space in the range of hundreds of billions, which is crucial for increasing the equity investment ratio of insurance funds [3]. Group 2: Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is anticipated to be a small-scale rally, potentially characterized by high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the technology sector and cyclical assets [4]. - The market is expected to react to policy layouts starting from mid-December, which may trigger the spring rally, alongside the "insurance opening red" phenomenon [4]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of a rebound in the technology sector as it transitions from a correction phase to a consolidation phase [4]. Group 3: 2026 Market Style and Rhythm - The first half of 2026 is predicted to be a consolidation phase for the "Bull Market 1.0," favoring cyclical and value styles, while the second half is expected to transition into a comprehensive bull market led by technology and advanced manufacturing [5]. - The anticipated improvement in PPI year-on-year in 2026, along with cyclical price increases, positions cyclical assets as foundational for the spring market [5]. - There is a focus on high-dividend opportunities and the potential for a broad rebound in technology stocks, particularly in AI, storage, energy storage, and robotics [5].

一则针对保险资金的监管新规，正为A股市场注入新的想象空间。 根据申万宏源证券发布的最新研究报告，监管机构近期下调了保险公司长期持有部分权益资产的风险因子，此举有望 在短期内释放千亿级别的增量资金空间，并可能成为点燃"春季行情"中资金面博弈的导火索。 这一政策动态来自国家金融监督管理总局于2025年12月5日发布的《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》。根 据通知，保险公司持有特定A股标的并满足一定持仓期限后，其在计算偿付能力充足率时适用的风险因子将获得下调。 申万宏源在12月6日及7日接连发布的两份报告中指出，该政策是鼓励长期资金入市的配套措施。对于部分险企而言， 这构成了"额外的增配权益激励"。分析认为，在当前经济和产业大级别催化尚不明确的背景下，资金供需逻辑可能成 为市场主要矛盾，而新规恰好可能让"保险开门红"的交易预期顺势发酵。 尽管短期提振效果显著，但申万宏源同时强调，此次风险因子下调的直接影响是"边际"的。从长远看，保险资金入市 的真正潜力，取决于其整体权益配置比例的系统性提升，这背后是"万亿级别"的潜在空间。 千亿级增量空间测算：短期边际提振，长期看配置比例 此次政策的核心在于为保险公司的长期 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that insurance companies have lowered risk factors for long-term holdings in the CSI 300, the China Securities Low Volatility 100, and the STAR Market, with state-owned insurance companies increasing their positions first, followed by the risk factor adjustments. This adjustment provides an additional incentive for other insurance companies to increase equity allocations, with a potential increase in equity investment space amounting to hundreds of billions under unchanged solvency ratios [4][5]. - The report highlights that the spring market's economic and industrial catalysts are not yet clear, and the supply-demand logic of funds may become the main contradiction. Expectations for the insurance "opening red" trading are rising, and high-dividend market trends may begin to emerge before early 2026 [4][5]. - The report suggests that the risk factor adjustments may encourage long-term capital to enter the market, particularly benefiting state-owned insurance companies that have already allocated a high proportion of new premiums to the market. The equity investment risk factor reduction is seen as a delayed policy optimization [5]. Group 2 - The report maintains that the spring market may be a small-scale market, with expectations of a rebound within a high-level oscillation for the overall market. For the oversold technology sector, it may transition into a phase of oscillation after sufficient adjustment [6]. - The mid-term judgment indicates a "two-stage bull market," with the technology structural bull market in 2025 at a high level, and subsequent adjustments may occur. A comprehensive bull market is expected in the second half of 2026 [6]. - The report anticipates that the first half of 2026 will see a "Bull Market 1.0" characterized by oscillation and a focus on cyclical and value styles, while the second half will transition to a "Bull Market 2.0" where technology and advanced manufacturing will dominate [8]. Group 3 - The report identifies potential triggers for the spring market, including the policy layout period starting in mid-December and the "two sessions" in 2026, which may activate policy and industrial themes [6]. - The report emphasizes that the spring market may serve as a foundation for cyclical assets, with a focus on basic chemicals and industrial technology as potential alpha sources. The insurance "opening red" may also highlight high-dividend opportunities [8]. - The report notes that the overall adjustment in technology may lead to a widespread rebound, with particular attention on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense, as well as opportunities in AI computing, storage, energy storage, and robotics [8].

FICC日报 | 2025-05-16 盘面再现高股息行情 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场分析 国内政策推进。宏观方面，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国务院总理强调，要深刻认识和准确把握当 前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循 环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。海外方面，美国4月PPI环比意外下跌0.5%，其中 服务价格下降0.7%，创2009年以来最大单月跌幅。上周初请失业金人数持平于22.9万人，符合市场预期。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收跌，上证指数收盘跌0.68%收于3380.82点，创业板指跌1.92%。行业方 面，板块指数跌多涨少，仅美容护理、煤炭、公用事业、农林牧渔行业收红，计算机、通信、电子、传媒行业跌 幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额回落至1.15亿元。证监会修订发布《上市公司募集资金监管规则》，强调募集资金 使用应专款专用，用于主营业务，明确超募资金最终用途应为在建项目及新项目、回购注销，不得用于永久补充 流动资金和偿还银行借款。海外市场，鲍威尔表示 ...