e 1 3 3 2025 年 09 月 28 日 时代 （ ） 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 供应扰动不断，金属价格持续上涨 若研究院 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 银行 用电器 械设备 煤炭 衣林牧渔 通运车 筑材 曲石 क 唯 t美 药生 容护 罗 雷 lift <H 制 图 1：本周有色金属（申万）指数上涨 3.52%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.46 个百分点 资料来源：ifind，申万宏源研究 金属&新材料行业周报 20250922-20250926 本期投 ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 09 月 28 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.21%，深证成指上涨 1.06%，沪深 300 上涨 1.07%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 3.52%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.46 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上 周，贵金属上涨 5.55%，铝下跌 1.79%，能源金属上涨 3.20%，小金属下跌 0.91%，铜上涨 8. ...

Summary of Yingliu Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Yingliu Co., Ltd. has extended its business from high-temperature alloys to gas turbines and aircraft engines, enhancing product value and profit margins through hardware manufacturing and related coating services [2][5] Key Business Segments - In 2024, the revenue breakdown is as follows: - High-temperature alloys and precision castings: 59% of revenue, 63% of gross profit - Nuclear power and large cast steel components: 26% of revenue, 24% of gross profit - New materials and equipment: 9% of revenue, 8% of gross profit [2][6] Customer Base - The top five customers include Emerson (17%), Baker Hughes (8.76%), Grundfos (5.5%), Caterpillar (4.42%), and AVIC (3.8%), indicating strong recognition and long-term partnerships with these international firms [2][7] Order Book and Impact of U.S. Orders - The total order backlog is 2.274 billion yuan, with U.S. orders accounting for only 3.6% (0.82 billion yuan), indicating minimal impact on overall revenue [2][8] Financial Performance - From 2015 to 2024, revenue grew from 1.345 billion yuan to 2.513 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2%. Net profit increased from 75 million yuan to 286 million yuan, with a CAGR of 16% [2][9] Market Opportunities - The global aviation engine market is projected to deliver over 87,000 units worth $1.5 trillion in the next 20 years, benefiting Yingliu as a key supplier for domestic aircraft engines [4][12] - Gas turbine orders are expected to increase by 102.8% in 2024, driven by AI data center demands and global energy transitions [4][13] Strategic Initiatives - Yingliu is focused on extending its industrial and value chains, moving from hardware to coatings to enhance product pricing and profit margins [5][10] - The company plans to invest 1.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds, with 550 million yuan allocated for blade and coating processing to increase production capacity [13] Nuclear Energy Sector - Yingliu is a major supplier for the nuclear power sector, with a 30% market share in the primary pump shell for the Hualong One reactor. The nuclear energy market in China has significant growth potential [14][15] Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy segment is still small but has high growth potential, with investments in helicopter engine development and partnerships for logistics solutions [16][20] Future Earnings Projections - Revenue forecasts for Yingliu Aviation from 2025 to 2027 are 2.94 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 4.81 billion yuan, with corresponding profit estimates of 400 million yuan, 530 million yuan, and 740 million yuan [21]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **AI Data Center Industry** and its challenges, particularly the "energy wall" issue impacting growth and development [1][3][14]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Energy Wall Challenge**: The AI data center industry faces significant challenges related to energy supply and GPU load capacity, which are critical bottlenecks for growth [1][3]. - **Advanced Packaging Technology**: TSMC is continuously evolving its 3D and 2.5D packaging solutions, with expectations that by 2027, AI chips will adopt next-generation packaging solutions, including CoWoS capacity expansion [1][4][6]. - **Traditional Packaging Market Recovery**: The traditional packaging market is expected to recover by 10% to 15% from 2025 to 2026, providing support for related companies' performance, particularly SMTT [1][7]. - **Transition to Optical Networks**: The network sector is transitioning from copper to optical transmission, with full optical technology expected to become cost-effective between 2028 and 2029 [1][8]. - **Quantum Computing Advancements**: Quantum computing shows significant advantages in energy efficiency, with a projected global market size of $15 to $30 billion by 2030, driven by the need for improved energy efficiency in data processing [1][9][13]. Additional Important Insights - **TSMC's CoWoS Capacity Plans**: TSMC plans to produce 670,000 units in 2025, increasing monthly capacity to 70,000-75,000 units by year-end, and aims for 1 million units in 2026 [6]. - **Market Dynamics for Traditional Packaging**: The traditional packaging market is nearing a bottoming out, which could stabilize the performance of companies heavily exposed to this sector [7]. - **Energy Bottleneck Impact**: The energy bottleneck is a critical factor for AI hardware investments, necessitating attention to advanced packaging, networking, quantum computing, storage, power management, and liquid cooling [1][14]. - **Commercialization of Quantum Computing**: The commercialization of quantum computing is accelerating, with companies like Google and Nvidia leading the charge, and significant advancements expected in the coming years [12][11]. - **Future Market Growth**: The quantum market is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of doubling revenue in the next few years, although the price-to-sales ratio may appear high due to anticipated growth potential post-2030 [13].

Summary of Conference Call for 应流股份 Industry Overview - The global AI data center capital expenditure is surging, particularly in Europe and the US, leading to a strong demand for gas turbines due to insufficient grid stability, with natural gas becoming the primary energy source [2][5] - The global gas turbine market is highly concentrated, with GEV (USA), Siemens Energy (Germany), and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) holding 80%-90% market share [2][6][8] - The gas turbine industry is expected to see a market space of approximately $28.1 billion (around 200 billion RMB) in 2024 [8] Key Points and Arguments - In 2024, global cloud infrastructure service spending is projected to reach $330 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with the four major US CSPs (Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) increasing capital expenditure by 75% [2][5][7] - GEV's order backlog has reached levels sufficient to sustain operations until 2028, with a 113% year-on-year increase in new gas orders for 2024 [2][6][10] - Siemens Energy reported a 60% year-on-year increase in new gas business orders for the first half of 2025, indicating a strong demand trend [2][9] - The gas turbine blade industry is experiencing intense competition, with companies like Howmet and PCC expanding slowly, while Homate's gross margin has improved due to increased demand [2][11] Company-Specific Insights - 应流股份 is focusing on the gas turbine blade sector as its primary growth curve for the next three years, with potential expansion into the aerospace engine blade market in the future [3][12] - The company has seen explosive order growth since the second half of last year, reflecting strong downstream demand and price increases [3][15] - 应流股份 has been approved for convertible bond issuance to expand production capacity, which is expected to significantly enhance blade output and revenue potential in the coming years [3][15] Additional Important Information - The overall industry is experiencing high demand across various dimensions, including AI data center capital expenditure and gas turbine blade manufacturing, with significant improvements in gross margins and performance [2][14] - 应流股份 is well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities due to the slow expansion of competitors and the high energy consumption and pollution associated with casting processes [3][13] - Market valuation concerns exist for 应流股份, currently estimated at 40 times earnings, but with significant growth potential projected over the next three years [2][16]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The niche storage market is currently experiencing a price increase trend, initially focused on large-capacity products and later extending to medium and small-capacity products [1][2] - The spot market prices are influenced more by market behavior and distributors rather than being strongly correlated with factory prices [2] Price Trends and Forecasts - The overall price increase for niche storage is expected to be between 5% and 10% in Q3, with little change anticipated in Q4 [1][4] - The price hikes are characterized as a commercial strategy rather than a result of strong market demand, which may lead to some order losses [5] Demand Drivers - The demand for large-capacity storage products is primarily driven by the growth in server and AI data center sectors, with significant demand also coming from the automotive industry's autonomous driving and robotics applications [6][7] - The automotive MCU market faces challenges due to low domestic replacement rates and difficulties in developing mid-to-high-end products [1][23] Market Competition - Major players like Winbond and Zhaoyi occupy about 70% of the niche storage market, with expected growth rates of 10% to 20% in the upcoming quarters [1][11] - The competition landscape shows that large-capacity chips face significant supply chain pressures, while small-capacity chips are less prioritized by major manufacturers [8] Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic manufacturers like Zhaoyi are relying on local capacities but face intense competition and declining prices in the mid-to-small storage segment [9] - The domestic market for AI servers has seen a market share increase to over 30%, although future growth may slow down [14] Inventory and Supply Chain - Current inventory levels are healthy, averaging 2 to 3 months, which is lower than the previous year [13] - The server market is expected to continue its growth trajectory from 2024 to 2025, with a focus on reliability and stability from major suppliers [10] Future Outlook - The automotive MCU market is expected to face challenges in the short term, with potential breakthroughs in technology over the next 3 to 5 years [23][24] - The overall demand in the server sector remains strong, while other consumer applications require further observation [15] Conclusion - The niche storage market is navigating a complex landscape of price increases driven by strategic decisions rather than pure demand, with significant implications for both large-capacity and automotive MCU sectors. The future growth potential hinges on technological advancements and market dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **chromium metal industry**, highlighting the surge in demand driven by **AI data centers**, **commercial aircraft**, and **European military needs**. The industry is expected to face a significant supply-demand gap, projected to reach **280,000 tons by 2028** due to limited capacity expansion caused by safety concerns [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gas Turbine Demand**: The demand for gas turbines is rapidly increasing, primarily benefiting from the construction of AI data centers. The delivery volume is expected to grow by approximately **70% year-on-year in the second half of 2026** [2][4]. - **Commercial Aircraft Engine Orders**: There has been a substantial increase in commercial aircraft engine orders, but the delivery cycle is lengthy. The global commercial aircraft fleet is projected to grow from **1,266 aircraft in 2024 to 2,800 by 2028**, with a maintenance ratio of **40%-50%** [4][24]. - **European Military Orders**: European military orders are increasing, with Rheinmetall's military orders rising from **€23 billion to €60-105 billion**. However, this demand has limited impact on domestic chromium metal consumption [5][27]. Production and Profitability Expectations - **Zhenhua Co. Production Forecast**: Zhenhua Co. anticipates a steady increase in production from **940,000 tons in 2024 to 1,060,000 tons by 2028**. The net profit is expected to rise from **¥770 million in 2025 to ¥1.3 billion in 2027**, with a valuation level of **7.8 times** [2][7]. - **Chromium Price Trends**: The price of chromium metal is closely linked to the price of chromium ore. Recent price declines are attributed to raw material price drops and seasonal factors, but the price of chromium oxide remains stable, indicating a tighter market for certain products [8][37]. Supply Chain Dynamics - **Global Supply Chain Expansion**: Overseas companies like Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Power are expanding gas turbine production capacity, while Chinese suppliers are entering the global supply chain. Exports from the chromium industry have increased by **64% year-on-year** in the first half of the year [2][6]. - **Complexity in Production**: The production process from chromium ore to chromium metal is complex, particularly in handling sodium chromate and sodium dichromate due to the hazardous nature of hexavalent chromium waste [10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - **Global Chromium Production**: Global chromium production capacity is approximately **1.07 million tons**, with China accounting for **520,000 tons**. Major producing countries include Kazakhstan, Turkey, and South Africa [11][35]. - **Zhenhua Co. Future Prospects**: Zhenhua Co. plans to expand its capacity significantly, potentially increasing production by **40%** through acquisitions and operational improvements. The company is expected to generate substantial free cash flow and improve return rates [36]. Additional Insights - **High-Temperature Alloy Applications**: Chromium metal is widely used in high-temperature alloys for gas turbines and aircraft engines, with a growing demand expected in the coming years [13][14]. - **Export Growth**: China's chromium powder exports have surged, with a notable increase from **1,300 tons in 2022 to 19,000 tons in the first quarter of 2025** [34]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the chromium metal industry, its dynamics, and future expectations.

Core Viewpoint - The southbound capital experienced a rare net outflow exceeding 18 billion HKD in a single day, driven by short-term risk aversion and profit-taking during a market rebound [2][3][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 4, the Hong Kong stock market indices showed a slight rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.92%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.55%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 1.01% [2]. - The total market turnover was approximately 234.7 billion HKD, with southbound capital transactions amounting to about 130.1 billion HKD [2]. Group 2: Southbound Capital Flow - The southbound capital recorded a net outflow of 18.092 billion HKD, marking the largest single-day net sell-off since May 12 [3]. - The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net outflow of approximately 11.124 billion HKD, while the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect experienced a net outflow of about 6.968 billion HKD [3]. Group 3: ETF Activity - Three major high-liquidity ETFs in Hong Kong were significantly sold off, with the top three ETFs experiencing net outflows of 14.534 billion HKD, 6.325 billion HKD, and 1.453 billion HKD respectively [8]. - The year-to-date returns for these ETFs have exceeded 20%, indicating strong performance prior to the sell-off [8]. Group 4: External Environment and Individual Stocks - Concerns regarding the trade environment, particularly following agreements made by Trump with multiple countries, have raised fears about potential impacts on Hong Kong's export-oriented companies and Chinese concept stocks [8]. - Despite the outflows, certain individual stocks like Alibaba, InnoCare, and Kuaishou saw net inflows of 728 million HKD, 363 million HKD, and 220 million HKD respectively, indicating selective investment behavior [9]. - InnoCare's stock surged by 30.47% to 75.15 HKD per share after announcing a partnership with NVIDIA to promote the large-scale implementation of an 800-volt direct current power architecture in AI data centers [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the high-temperature alloy industry [1][19]. Core Insights - The demand for gas turbines and aircraft engines is surging, driven by increased orders from major manufacturers, which is expected to boost the demand for chromium salts, high-temperature alloys, and components [7][18]. - The domestic supply chain for high-temperature alloys is anticipated to benefit significantly from the ongoing demand surge, with Chinese companies positioned to capture opportunities in the international market [17][19]. Recent Trends - The high-temperature alloy industry has seen a robust performance, with a notable increase in orders for gas turbines and aircraft engines, reflecting a strong market outlook [7][18]. - The report highlights that the global gas turbine market is experiencing a significant expansion, with major players like Siemens Energy and GE Vernova reporting record-high order volumes [9][10][11]. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies several key companies to watch, including Zhenhua Co., Longda Co., Hangya Technology, Yingliu Co., Wanze Co., Hangyu Technology, Parker New Materials, and Sry New Materials, all of which are expected to benefit from the rising demand in the high-temperature alloy sector [7][17][21]. - Profit forecasts for these companies indicate a positive growth trajectory, with expected increases in earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios over the next few years [21].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The automotive industry in Q1 2025 showed strong performance with several companies achieving record highs in revenue and net profit, including BYD, Zhongding, Foton, and Joyson [2][3] - The wind power industry is experiencing high growth in installed capacity, particularly in offshore wind, with significant improvements in component companies' profitability [9][10] Company Highlights BYD - BYD's Q1 2025 sales increased by 58% year-on-year, approaching one million units, with a significant rise in export volume of new energy vehicles to 73,000 units, doubling year-on-year [1][4] - The company is expected to see continued growth in its intelligent driving product line and expansion in the pure electric market through its e-platform, enhancing overall profit margins [4][3] Zhongding - Zhongding achieved record high performance in Q1 2025, driven by significant growth in lightweight chassis and air suspension businesses, benefiting from the demand for new energy vehicles and the high-end passenger car market [1][5] - The company is expanding its presence in the robotics sector and anticipates a growth rate of 11%-12% in the coming years, with a low valuation [5] Joyson - Joyson's automotive safety and electronics segments saw a recovery in profitability, supported by improved order quality and reduced costs, particularly in North America [1][6] - The company is positioned as a global leader in automotive safety and electronics, with a low valuation of around 14 times earnings [6] Foton - Foton's Q1 2025 performance was bolstered by a surge in exports and sales of new energy commercial vehicles, with overseas light truck sales leading the market [1][8] - The company reported a 35% year-on-year increase in new energy commercial vehicle sales, reaching 54,000 units, and is expected to maintain strong growth [8] Wind Power Industry - The wind power sector is entering a high-growth phase in 2025, particularly in offshore wind, with component companies showing improved profitability [9][10] - The domestic offshore wind market is expected to continue growing into the next five-year plan, with significant potential compared to onshore wind [9] Additional Insights - The semiconductor equipment, engineering machinery, and robotics sectors are experiencing rapid growth, indicating a shift towards technology-driven industries [3][16] - Companies like Feilihua are seeing substantial growth in their semiconductor business, with a 36% increase in net profit year-on-year, driven by the completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan [23][24] Conclusion - The automotive and wind power industries are poised for continued growth, with key players like BYD, Zhongding, Joyson, and Foton leading the charge. The semiconductor and robotics sectors also present significant investment opportunities as technology becomes a focal point for future development.