机构：中金公司 毛利率环比继续提升，关注后续盈利稳步释放。2Q25 毛利率环比提升0.2ppt 至36.5%，主要因效果广告 收入增速亮眼和经营杠杆。2Q25 销售/管理费用绝对值环比略有下滑，研发费用略有环比增长，但相对 节制。我们判断，中长期，公司成本与费用相对平稳，营收增长与结构改善或释放经营杠杆，我们预计 后续季度毛利率或逐步提升至4Q25 达到37%，长期有望达到40%~45%；叠加公司费用相对节制，我们 预计4Q25 Non-GAAP 经营利润率有望达10%。 用户经营数据良性增长，坚持优质内容和社区氛围。公司2Q25 MAU、DAU 和人均单日使用时长均取 得同比增长，其中DAU 2Q25 达1.09 亿人。我们认为，公司社区属性明显且用户粘性维持较高水平。公 司业绩会提到当前广告预算在从多平台向核心平台汇聚，而具备差异化定位平台可能更受偏好；展望未 来，商业化层面，随着公司不断打磨商业化基建能力和年轻用户社区属性，建议持续关注广告、游戏及 充电计划的发展潜力。 盈利预测与估值 维持25/26 年Non-GAAP 净利润预测不变。当前港/美股均交易于33/25 倍25/26 年Non-GAAP ...

Core Insights - The report analyzes the characteristics of the bond market during bull markets, specifically referencing historical periods of 2006-2007, 2014-2015, and 2024-2025, indicating that government bond yields tend to move in sync with overall liquidity conditions, generally trending downward during periods of ample liquidity [2] - It highlights that during stock market rallies, there is often a decrease in household deposits and a potential decline in bond fund shares, although these may recover in later stages of the stock market growth [2] Company-Specific Insights GoerTek Inc. (歌尔股份) - For the first half of 2025, GoerTek reported revenue of 37.55 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.42 billion, an increase of 15.7% [3] - The company’s gross margin improved to 13.5%, up by 2.0 percentage points, and net margin increased to 3.7%, up by 0.8 percentage points [3] - Projections for 2025-2027 indicate revenues of 101.1 billion, 115.1 billion, and 130.0 billion respectively, with net profits of 3.3 billion, 4.1 billion, and 4.8 billion, reflecting growth rates of 24.0%, 23.1%, and 17.1% [3] Koss (科思股份) - Koss is facing temporary performance pressure due to increased market competition and weaker-than-expected terminal demand, particularly in the sunscreen market [5] - The company is focusing on consolidating its leading position in the sunscreen agent sector and enhancing its product offerings [6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.06 billion, 2.26 billion, and 2.45 billion, with net profits of 410 million, 490 million, and 560 million, maintaining a "buy" rating [6] Yanjinpuzi (盐津铺子) - Yanjinpuzi achieved revenue of 2.94 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, with net profit of 370 million, up 16.7% [6] - The growth was driven by strong performance in the konjac product line and effective channel strategies, including expansion into Southeast Asia [6] Changhong Meiling (长虹美菱) - The company reported total revenue of 18.072 billion for the first half of 2025, a 20.8% increase, with net profit of 417 million, a slight increase of 0.26% [8] - The growth was supported by faster export growth, although profit levels were impacted by tax and impairment issues [8] Naxin Microelectronics (纳芯微) - Naxin Microelectronics reported record revenue in Q2 2025, with projections for 2025-2027 indicating revenues of 3.07 billion, 3.79 billion, and 4.60 billion, reflecting growth rates of 56.8%, 23.3%, and 21.5% [9] Sunny Optical Technology (舜宇光学科技) - Sunny Optical is expected to see revenue growth from 40.9 billion in 2025 to 55.9 billion in 2027, with net profits projected at 3.53 billion, 4.20 billion, and 5.24 billion [10] Sanwei Chemical (三维化学) - Sanwei Chemical reported revenue of 1.25 billion in the first half of 2025, a 22% increase, with net profits growing by 43% [11] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth with projected net profits of 350 million, 480 million, and 630 million for 2025-2027 [11]

Macro - The July CPI data indicates that the transmission of tariffs on core goods inflation remains slow, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. However, the current market's expectation of three rate cuts this year may be overly optimistic, as immigration and tariff policies will continue to impact inflation in the second half of the year [2][5]. - In July, the US CPI year-on-year was 2.7% (previous value 2.7%, market expectation 2.8%). The core CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%. The month-on-month CPI growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% (market expectation 0.2%), while the core CPI month-on-month was 0.3% (previous value 0.2%), in line with market expectations [3][16]. Financial Engineering - A multi-factor model suitable for the CSI 300 index component stocks, combined with a small-cap high-growth satellite strategy, can stabilize and improve the performance of the CSI 300 enhanced strategy. With a 30% domestic and 10% foreign satellite allocation, the annualized excess return of the CSI 300 enhanced strategy since 2016 is 12.6%, with a tracking error of 5.2% [2][7]. - The internal component stock returns are relatively ordinary, which may be related to the differing performance of internal and external factors of the CSI 300 index component stocks. The backtesting results show that the model's stock selection robustness for internal components is superior to that of the all-A multi-factor model [6][7]. Beauty Industry - Yiwang Yichuang - Yiwang Yichuang is a leading e-commerce operator in China, focusing on beauty and personal care products. The company is actively optimizing its business structure and investing in research and development, with a forward-looking application of AI to enhance brand operations, which is expected to help reduce costs and expand business [9][10]. - The company emphasizes R&D and digital construction, with plans to deploy large models and AI systems by 2024, which are expected to empower its agency operations. The company’s core business involves providing online services for brand image shaping and operational modules, with many areas that can be optimized through AI [10][11]. - In 2025, the company launched a stock incentive plan, which is expected to lead to a turning point in performance. The plan involves granting up to 2 million restricted shares to 34 executives and core technical personnel, with performance targets set for revenue and profit growth over the next three years [11].

Summary of the Conference Call for Light Media Company Overview - **Company**: Light Media - **Industry**: Film and Entertainment Key Points and Arguments Business Growth and Performance - In Q1 2025, Light Media experienced a growth rate exceeding 20%, driven significantly by "Nezha 2" and its derivatives, with annual derivative sales expected to reach 200-300 billion yuan, becoming a key growth driver [2][5][6] - The company is transitioning from a film content provider to an IP creator and operator, with an estimated gross profit contribution from derivative licensing of around 30 billion yuan, of which Light Media's share is approximately 20 billion yuan, leading to an overall expected performance of around 40 billion yuan for the year [2][6][7] Revenue Streams and Profitability - Total expected box office revenue from animated and live-action films is projected to be between 20-30 billion yuan, with corresponding profit margins of 10-20 billion yuan, plus an additional 5-10 billion yuan from IP derivative licensing, indicating significant growth potential [2][7] - The company aims to diversify its IP monetization channels, including games, theme parks, and cultural products, to reduce reliance on single box office revenue and enhance profitability [2][3][4] IP Development and Market Potential - Light Media is building a mythological universe with projects like "Nezha 2," "Aobing" standalone film, and "Nezha Village," while collaborating with companies like Bandai Namco and Pop Mart for collectible toys and cards [2][10] - The potential for derivative products is substantial, with "Nezha 2" expected to generate over 1 billion USD in overseas box office, marking the highest figure in 20 years [3][5] Strategic Initiatives - To address the cyclical nature of the film industry, Light Media is enhancing operational sustainability through multi-faceted IP management and investing in over 20 leading companies to improve production standards [4][12] - The company is embracing AI technology to boost production efficiency and plans to launch AAA games and develop collectible card games within three years [4][14] Future Projects and Plans - Upcoming projects for 2025 include "Little Raccoon Nest," "Transparent Couple," and "Air Island," with a strong pipeline for 2026 and beyond, including adaptations of popular works [11][12] - The company is also planning to establish a new animation brand and expand its production capacity to stabilize box office performance [12] Financial Outlook and Valuation - Historical profit fluctuations in film content have been noted, with expected profits from animated films and derivatives potentially reaching 20 billion yuan or more [7][9] - If the company achieves profits exceeding 20 billion yuan next year, a valuation of 30 times could place its market cap between 600-750 billion yuan, with optimistic scenarios suggesting it could approach 1 trillion yuan [7][15] Conclusion - Light Media's future development appears promising, with a rich project pipeline and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing IP value and operational efficiency. Continuous monitoring of the company's performance and market strategies is recommended [15]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that policy support for listed companies through mergers and acquisitions is crucial for high-quality development, leading to ongoing industry consolidation [5][14]. - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.13%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.25 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sub-industries [7][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoint - The report highlights that recent policies have improved regulatory inclusiveness and relaxed competition restrictions, facilitating mergers and acquisitions [14]. - Companies like Maipu Medical and Pilin Bio have announced plans for mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to enhance their technological capabilities and market positions [6][15]. 2. Subsector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's sub-indices all recorded gains, with the raw materials and blood products sectors leading with a 2.89% increase [7][22]. - The report suggests that the medical device sector has significant room for valuation growth, with a current P/E ratio of 37.55, below its historical average [26]. 3. Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Yingke Medical, Maipu Medical, and Yihe Jiaye, among others [8]. - Beneficiary stocks identified are Shanhaishan, Yirui Technology, and Lianying Medical [27]. 4. Detailed Subsector Analysis - **Medical Devices**: The sector is expected to benefit from policies promoting equipment upgrades and procurement, with a focus on AI applications in imaging and surgery [26]. - **Medical Consumables**: The sector is projected to see steady growth as high-value consumables approach the end of their procurement cycle [29]. - **IVD Sector**: The report notes a 2.00% increase in the IVD sector, with a focus on AI-assisted diagnostics [30]. - **Blood Products**: The blood products sector is experiencing a 2.89% increase, with ongoing consolidation and product diversification [31]. - **Retail Pharmacy**: The offline pharmacy sector is expected to benefit from improved operational efficiencies through AI integration [34]. - **Healthcare Services**: The hospital sector has seen a 1.07% increase, with growth in specific medical fields like ophthalmology and reproductive health [36]. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: The sector is expected to recover as the impact of previous procurement policies diminishes [38]. - **CXO Sector**: The report indicates a positive outlook for the CXO sector, driven by increased demand for outsourcing in drug development [40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to increased expense ratios and higher impairment losses, leading to a net profit loss in 2024 [2] - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D, which supports the localization of CNC systems [6] - The revenue from the CNC systems and machine tools segment increased by 9.82% year-on-year, while the robotics and intelligent production line segment saw a significant decline of 36.39% [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.71% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -55.37 million yuan, marking a significant decline compared to the previous year [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 33.48%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 365 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 72.54% year-on-year [5] R&D and Innovation - The company increased its R&D expenditure to 323 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.03% [6] - The company has developed the "Huazhong 10" intelligent CNC system, which integrates CNC machine tool mathematical models with AI data models to enhance processing precision and reduce processing cycles [6] Market Position and Valuation - The current market capitalization of the company is approximately 5.305 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 199.94 for 2023 and projected to decrease to 22.85 by 2027 [9][12] - The company is considered a rare asset in the high-end CNC system sector, justifying the "Accumulate" rating despite the short-term challenges [11]