机构：中金公司 毛利率环比继续提升，关注后续盈利稳步释放。2Q25 毛利率环比提升0.2ppt 至36.5%，主要因效果广告 收入增速亮眼和经营杠杆。2Q25 销售/管理费用绝对值环比略有下滑，研发费用略有环比增长，但相对 节制。我们判断，中长期，公司成本与费用相对平稳，营收增长与结构改善或释放经营杠杆，我们预计 后续季度毛利率或逐步提升至4Q25 达到37%，长期有望达到40%~45%；叠加公司费用相对节制，我们 预计4Q25 Non-GAAP 经营利润率有望达10%。 用户经营数据良性增长，坚持优质内容和社区氛围。公司2Q25 MAU、DAU 和人均单日使用时长均取 得同比增长，其中DAU 2Q25 达1.09 亿人。我们认为，公司社区属性明显且用户粘性维持较高水平。公 司业绩会提到当前广告预算在从多平台向核心平台汇聚，而具备差异化定位平台可能更受偏好；展望未 来，商业化层面，随着公司不断打磨商业化基建能力和年轻用户社区属性，建议持续关注广告、游戏及 充电计划的发展潜力。 盈利预测与估值 维持25/26 年Non-GAAP 净利润预测不变。当前港/美股均交易于33/25 倍25/26 年Non-GAAP ...

Core Insights - Bilibili's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 7 billion RMB, a 24% year-on-year increase, and a narrowed net loss of 10.7 million RMB, down 99% from the previous year [1][4] - Following the earnings report, Bilibili's stock rose over 4% in the US market, reaching $18.7 per share, with a total market capitalization of $7.85 billion [2] Revenue Breakdown - The total revenue of 70 billion RMB in Q1 2025 was driven by four main segments: value-added services (40%), advertising (29%), mobile games (25%), and IP derivatives and others (6%) [6][7] - Value-added services generated 28.1 billion RMB, an 11% increase year-on-year, while advertising revenue reached 20 billion RMB, up 20% [7] - Mobile games saw the most significant growth, with revenue of 17.3 billion RMB, a 76% increase, largely due to the success of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [7] User Engagement - Bilibili reported an average daily active user count of 107 million and a record high monthly active user count of 368 million, with a net increase of 28 million monthly active users [5][6] - The average age of active users is 26, and the average daily usage time reached a historical high of 108 minutes [5] Cost Management - Despite a 24% increase in total revenue, operating costs only rose by 10%, indicating effective cost control [6] - Research and development expenses decreased by 13%, while general and administrative expenses fell by 3% [6] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Bilibili's operating cash flow for the quarter was 13.02 billion RMB, more than double the 6.38 billion RMB from the same period last year [6] - As of March 31, 2025, Bilibili held cash and cash equivalents, term deposits, and short-term investments totaling 17.4 billion RMB [9] Advertising Performance - Bilibili's advertising revenue was bolstered by over 100 million users engaging with home appliance content, leading to a nearly 40% increase in related advertising revenue [8] - Emerging sectors, particularly AI-related content, saw significant growth, with AI advertising revenue increasing by nearly 400% [8]

Macroeconomic Group - In April, M2 growth was 8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 7.5% and the previous month's 7% [2] - The total social financing (TSF) year-on-year growth was 8.7%, slightly below the expected 8.8% and previous month's 8.4% [2] - The incremental TSF in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, lower than the expected 1.26 trillion yuan and significantly down from 5.89 trillion yuan in the previous month [2] Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing Group - Jilin Chemical Fiber announced a price increase of 10,000 yuan per ton for its wet-process carbon fiber products due to rising demand from low-altitude economy and drones [5] - The current market price for carbon fiber is around 200-220 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 5% increase, the largest since previous price adjustments [5] - The carbon fiber industry is expected to improve as wind power installations grow and military orders resume, indicating a recovery from the worst phase [5] Consumer Group - Marubi Bio achieved a revenue of 2.97 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, with a net profit of 330 million yuan, up 73.9% [8] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 850 million yuan, a 28% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, up 28.57% [8] - The eye care product segment saw a revenue of 690 million yuan in 2024, growing 60.8% year-on-year, with Q1 2025 showing an impressive 89.1% growth [9]

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1800.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13% [1] - Gross profit reached 1004.9 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, while operating profit (Non-IFRS) was 693.2 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year [1] Business Line Performance - Value-added services generated revenue of 921 billion yuan, a 17% year-on-year growth, with domestic game revenue at 429 billion yuan, accounting for 23.8% of total revenue [3] - Financial technology and enterprise services grew by 5% to 549 billion yuan, now exceeding 30% of total revenue [3] - Marketing services achieved revenue of 319 billion yuan, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, continuing its rapid growth [3] R&D and AI Strategy - R&D investment increased by 21% year-on-year to 189 billion yuan [3] - The AI strategy focuses on comprehensive upgrades across all capabilities, enhancing model performance and application efficiency, thereby accelerating AI technology deployment and innovation across industries [3] Management Commentary - Chairman and CEO Ma Huateng emphasized the solid growth of high-quality revenue, stating that existing revenue will help absorb additional costs from AI investments while maintaining financial stability [4] - The company anticipates that strategic AI investments will create value for users and society, leading to long-term and substantial incremental returns [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025, driven by robust performance in its effect advertising business and advancements in AI-enabled programmatic advertising. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.547 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.83%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 232 million yuan, up 6.81% year-over-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 217 million yuan, which increased by 30.10% year-over-year [1][2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 929 million yuan, a significant year-over-year increase of 93.18%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 56 million yuan, up 11.67% year-over-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 61 million yuan, which increased by 30.78% year-over-year [1][2] Business Segmentation - In 2024, the effect advertising segment generated revenue of 2.484 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 22.45%, accounting for 97.52% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 16.90% [3] - The company’s revenue from the e-commerce sector was 513 million yuan, representing 20.14% of total advertising revenue, while revenue from applications, agents, and other sectors was 2.029 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year growth of 23.31% [3] - The company has expanded its advertising client base beyond e-commerce, maintaining its competitive edge while diversifying into other industries [3] Technological Advancements - The company has enhanced its programmatic advertising capabilities through AI, achieving a sevenfold increase in inference efficiency and reducing task execution time by over 30%, along with a 25% decrease in computational resource costs [3] - The company has become the first-level agent for AppLovin in Greater China, leveraging its technology platform for user behavior analysis, ad material optimization, and performance monitoring [3] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 3.301 billion yuan, 3.842 billion yuan, and 4.298 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 301 million yuan, 372 million yuan, and 424 million yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 42, 34, and 30 [4] - The company is positioned as a leading player in overseas marketing services, with a new strategy focused on leveraging AIGC to drive brand expansion [4]