以下文章来源于和谐汇一资产管理 ，作者和谐汇一 和谐汇一资产管理 . 和谐汇一是一家专注于权益类二级市场投资的私募基金管理公司，由林鹏先生发起创立。旨在为投资 者、为所投资公司及社会发展发现持久价值，做中国最优秀企业的长期陪伴者。 2025年新消费的鲜花着锦，让很多人看到了IP产业的魅力。崇尚理性的资本市场，也开始试图为"情绪 价值"定价，拆解不断涌现的中国新消费公司以及他们的商业模式。 从一个IP的走红，到一个IP公司的成功，再到一个IP公司经历周期洗礼仍然基业长青，当下的中国新消 费还在探索的道路上。什么样的框架能够帮助我们更好的理解这种变化，什么样的经验能够指引我们看 到更广阔的未来？ 和谐汇一研究部消费组研究员王天浩将IP产业放在全球视野下去复盘更长的历史，总结出了他们对这个 行业的深入思考。 或许某个闲暇午后，当人们刷着短视频时，会偶然被一段玲娜贝儿的互动视频所吸引。那只穿着蓬松小 裙的粉紫色小狐狸，在迪士尼乐园里冲游客挥手、歪头卖萌。 她一句台词没有，却轻易唤起了观众内心深处的柔软情绪。这份心动正是IP的本质： IP是情绪的容器， 是集体记忆的锚点。 在当下内容过剩的时代，IP不只是一个形象或故事 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' latest report analyzes the cyclical patterns of IP companies, stating that the typical popularity cycle for a single IP lasts 2-3 years, with platformization being a viable solution for sustainability [1][2] - The report identifies three typical stock price response patterns for IP companies based on their development stages: rapid growth, maturity, and diversification [1][5] Group 1: IP Cycle and Market Potential - The popularity cycle of single IPs generally lasts 2-3 years, as evidenced by examples like Lingna Belle and Kuromi in the Chinese market [2] - Companies with continuous content generation capabilities can extend their IP cycles beyond the typical duration [2] - The Chinese IP toy market shows significant potential, with per capita spending at 124 RMB (17 USD), which is only 1/17 of North America's and 1/4 of Japan's spending [12] Group 2: Stock Price Response Patterns - In the high-growth phase, stock price turning points often occur when high-frequency data shows signs of weakness, regardless of optimistic profit expectations [5] - In the maturity phase, stock price turning points align with downward revisions in profit expectations [5] - Companies with diversified business models are less affected by single IP cycles, demonstrating more resilient stock price performance [5] Group 3: Factors Influencing Sustainable Growth - Five key drivers for sustainable growth in IP companies include diverse product offerings, resource investment, monetization capabilities, customer interaction, and IP portfolio expansion [4][10] - Disney and Bandai are highlighted as exemplary companies in building comprehensive IP ecosystems, showcasing strong profitability resilience [4] Group 4: Bubble Mart Analysis - Goldman Sachs conducted a scenario analysis for Bubble Mart, suggesting that in the most optimistic scenario, long-term revenue potential could reach 81 billion RMB (11 billion USD), comparable to Lego's level [1][8] - The report maintains a neutral rating for Bubble Mart with a target price of 260 HKD, based on a 25x expected P/E ratio for 2027 [11] - Bubble Mart's growth is driven by both internal factors (product development, category expansion) and external factors (celebrity endorsements, rising emotional value demand) [8] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The rise of short video platforms and reduced content supply has created opportunities for non-content IPs [3] - The report emphasizes that establishing an IP platform is crucial for unlocking growth potential and achieving long-term success [11]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "Disney private connections" has emerged, where fans engage in private interactions with Disney character actors, raising concerns about the integrity of the Disney experience and the implications for other visitors [1][2][8]. Group 1: Private Connections and Fan Interactions - "Private connections" refer to fans interacting privately with character actors, which is seen as a violation of the idol ethics in the entertainment industry [2][3]. - A Disney annual passholder revealed her private interactions with a character actor, exchanging gifts for special treatment during interactions [4][6]. - The practice of private connections allows fans to influence how actors interact with other visitors, creating a sense of exclusivity [6][11]. Group 2: Impact on Visitor Experience - The existence of private connections disrupts the traditional Disney experience, where all visitors are expected to receive equal treatment [8][17]. - Reports indicate that actors may prioritize familiar fans over others, leading to longer and more engaging interactions with select individuals [12][16]. - The disparity in treatment has caused frustration among regular visitors who feel overlooked in favor of those with private connections [17][28]. Group 3: The Role of Disney's Culture - Disney's strict guidelines require character actors to maintain their roles and not reveal their identities, complicating the dynamics of private connections [9][30]. - The culture of exclusivity and favoritism among fans has led to the trading of actor schedules, further entrenching the private connection phenomenon [24][26]. - The desire for special treatment and recognition drives both fans and actors to engage in private connections, blurring the lines between fantasy and reality [41][50]. Group 4: Broader Implications for Disney - The rise of private connections reflects a broader trend in the entertainment industry where fan engagement can lead to complex social dynamics [42][49]. - Disney's marketing strategies have successfully created emotional dependencies among fans, which may inadvertently encourage private connections [45][46]. - The ongoing discussions about private connections highlight the challenges Disney faces in maintaining its brand image while catering to evolving fan expectations [51][52].

Core Insights - Labubu, referred to as "plastic Moutai," has gained immense popularity among young consumers, particularly during the recent Dragon Boat Festival, where long queues were observed at stores selling these collectibles [2] - The success of Labubu is attributed to its ability to resonate with the emotional needs of the younger generation, who seek "healing" through trendy toys, reflecting a shift in aesthetic preferences towards individuality and uniqueness [3][4] - Unlike the previous trendsetter, Lingna Belle, which embodies a "cute" aesthetic, Labubu's design is more unconventional, appealing to a desire for diverse and non-standardized cultural expressions among youth [3][4] Market Dynamics - Labubu's rise parallels the characteristics of postmodern culture, where consumers reject standardized cultural products in favor of those that allow for personal interpretation and identity expression [3] - The emotional value derived from Labubu extends beyond mere "healing" to include a sense of "dialogue" and "understanding," where consumers feel their tastes and aesthetics are validated [4] - Labubu's design incorporates local elements, facilitating cultural exchange and establishing trust with overseas consumers, which is crucial for its global expansion strategy initiated in 2018 [5] Cultural Significance - The phenomenon of Labubu reflects the broader trend of how Chinese cultural products can successfully penetrate global markets, showcasing the inclusivity of traditional Chinese culture as a foundation for globalization [5] - Understanding Labubu's popularity provides insights into the emotional expression needs of Generation Z and highlights the potential of the Chinese cultural and creative industry on the world stage [5]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of domestic潮玩 (trendy toys) in international markets is not a coincidence, but rather a significant transformation in the toy industry, driven by changes in consumer demographics and product offerings [2][5]. Group 1: Consumer Demographics - The consumer base for toys is shifting from primarily children to older age groups, particularly in overseas markets, with adult and teenage consumers increasingly contributing to sales [2][5]. - In the U.S. toy market, consumers aged 12 and above account for approximately 25% of sales, contributing over $9 billion, and have driven 60% of market growth from 2021 to 2022 [2]. - In 2023, adult toy sales in the U.S. increased by 8%, representing 7.3% of the total toy market, while in five EU countries, the same demographic saw a 2.5% increase in toy spending, making up 28.5% of the market [2]. Group 2: Product Evolution - The definition of "goods" in the toy industry is evolving, with潮玩 targeting consumers aged 15 to 40 who seek emotional value and personal expression through collectibles [5]. - Traditional toy brands are facing market share pressure, while collectible brands like LEGO are gaining traction, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards adult-oriented collectible toys [5]. Group 3: Market Trends - The blind box segment is experiencing significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.2% in China's market from 2019 to 2023, outpacing overall toy market growth [7]. - The rise of social media has transformed the marketing landscape for toys, with a shift from traditional media to platforms that promote interactive and visually appealing products [7]. - The average daily usage of social media globally increased from 90 minutes to 143 minutes between 2012 and 2024, facilitating the emergence of new toy brands that leverage original IP and social media engagement [7]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The global toy market is relatively fragmented, with the top five players holding only 26.5% of the market share, allowing for opportunities for new brands to establish differentiated positions [8]. - Chinese潮玩 brands are positioned at a lower price point compared to U.S. counterparts, focusing on unique IP and catering to niche markets, including female-oriented潮玩 [8]. Group 5: Market Volatility - While the potential for domestic潮玩 to succeed internationally is promising, the market remains volatile, as evidenced by the fluctuating popularity of certain IPs like Disney's Lina Bell, which saw a rapid rise and subsequent decline in interest [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of high-value auctions of confiscated goods by customs, particularly focusing on the auction of Disney merchandise, which has attracted significant attention and participation from young consumers and collectors [3][5][10]. Group 1: Auction Dynamics - A recent auction featured 735 Disney items, including 653 plush toys, with a starting bid of 32,480 yuan, which eventually saw a toy sell for 280,480 yuan, highlighting the extreme price volatility in the collectibles market [8][10][11]. - The auction attracted over 60,000 viewers and 139 bidders, indicating a growing interest in such events among the younger demographic [17][19]. - The auction's hype was fueled by social media, where claims about the rarity of certain items, such as "271 green bears," drove up bidding prices significantly [13][18]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article notes a shift in consumer behavior, with young people increasingly participating in customs auctions to find rare collectibles, reflecting a broader trend in the "cultural value" of such items [6][26]. - The rise of the "customs auction" phenomenon is linked to the growing popularity of "cultural goods," which are often difficult for outsiders to appraise accurately, leading to speculative buying [20][21]. - The customs auctions have become a new channel for middle-class consumers to acquire luxury items at lower prices, with some items being sold for just a few hundred yuan [32][35]. Group 3: Implications for Customs and Trade - The article highlights the evolving role of customs in regulating and auctioning off confiscated goods, which now includes a variety of high-demand cultural products, from toys to luxury fashion items [24][41]. - Customs officials have noted an increase in the seizure of high-value items, indicating a growing trend in smuggling and the need for stricter regulations in the trade of cultural goods [21][26]. - The auction process is described as lacking in quality assurance, with no guarantees on the authenticity of items sold, which poses risks for buyers [42][43].