创新跨越从跟跑至领跑，出海破局由低端向高端 [Table_Industry] 医药生物行业 2026 年度策略报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 15 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业投资策略 | [Table_StockAndRank] 医药生物 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 唐爱金 医药行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 贺鑫 医药行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120003 邮 箱：hexin@cindasc.com 曹佳琳 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080011 邮 箱：caojialin@cindasc.com 章钟涛 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524030003 邮 箱：zhangzhongtao@cindasc.com 赵丹 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120002 邮 箱：zhaodan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CIN ...

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is experiencing stable growth in drug sales, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% from January to August 2025. Chemical drugs maintain growth due to rigid demand, while biological products are benefiting from dual-channel and outpatient policy support, leading to rapid growth. Traditional Chinese medicine has seen a decline due to lower flu incidence, but a recent resurgence in flu cases may stabilize OTC categories [1] - The medical device sector has seen a significant narrowing of decline after household destocking, with only a 1.3% drop from January to August. Upstream companies like Yuyue Medical are showing steady growth, and home medical devices are entering a stabilization phase [1] - Regulatory policies in the industry are tightening, with strong supervision of medical insurance accelerating the exit of small pharmacies. Leading pharmacies are expected to increase their market concentration due to compliance advantages. Additionally, the non-drug adjustment in pharmacies, which includes the introduction of health products and medical devices, is in its early stages, and the rapid growth of O2O channels (29.6% increase from January to August) may inject new momentum into the industry [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Haitong Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF (159377) tracks the Innovation Pharmaceutical Index (399275), which has a daily fluctuation limit of 20%. This index selects listed companies involved in innovative drugs, medical devices, and medical services from the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry to reflect the overall performance of high-growth and innovative pharmaceutical-related securities [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the technology mainline in the fourth quarter may face pressure, and overseas pressure will be transmitted to the domestic market. In 2026, since the Fed is likely to maintain relative looseness and the diffusion direction of AI themes has not converged, the structural opportunities in 2026 will still revolve around the technology mainline [2][35]. - For convertible bonds, it is recommended to defend in the short - term. The low - price style ended eight consecutive weeks of positive gains last week. The medium - and low - price style may experience a phase of waiting for performance at the meso - level and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm may slow down at the macro - level in the fourth quarter, which will trigger a phased correction of US technology stocks and suppress the domestic technology mainline. Therefore, consider diversification and diffusion in industry styles [2][36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1 Equity Market Declined Overall - From November 17th to November 21st, the equity market declined overall, with all indices closing down. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 1759.86 billion yuan to 18487.98 billion yuan compared with last week, a week - on - week decline of 8.69%. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.90% to 3834.89 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.13% to 12538.07 points, the ChiNext Index fell 6.15% to 2920.08 points, and the CSI 300 fell 3.77% to 4453.61 points. All 31 Shenwan primary industries closed down, with power equipment, basic chemicals, commercial retail, steel, and pharmaceutical biology leading the decline, with declines of 10.54%, 7.47%, 7.24%, 6.98%, and 6.88% respectively [7][9][11]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market Declined Overall - From November 17th to November 21st, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.78% to 482.94 points. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 1 industry closed up, and no industry had a gain of more than 2%. The social services industry led the gains with a 0.31% increase, while non - ferrous metals, coal, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel led the declines, with declines of 1.93%, 1.72%, 1.63%, 1.57%, and 1.35% respectively. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 656.75 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 56.65 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of - 7.94%. About 6.70% of individual convertible bonds rose, about 4.47% had a gain in the range of 0 - 1%, and 0.74% had a gain of more than 2% [7][14]. - In terms of conversion premium rate, the overall market conversion premium rate rebounded this week, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 39.86%, an increase of 2.05 pcts compared with last week. In terms of price intervals, except for the price interval above 120 yuan which widened by 2.27 pcts, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other price intervals narrowed, with the 100 - 110 yuan price interval narrowing the most, by 25.23 pcts. In terms of parity intervals, except for the parity intervals below 90 yuan and 110 - 120 yuan where the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds narrowed, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other parity intervals widened, with the 90 - 100 yuan parity interval widening the most, by 2.70 pcts [19]. - In terms of conversion parity, the parity of 7 industries increased this week, with 2 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2%. The social services, steel, environmental protection, petroleum and petrochemical, and beauty care industries led the gains, with increases of 32.81%, 5.17%, 1.28%, 0.42%, and 0.40% respectively; the electronics, power equipment, food and beverage, non - bank finance, and building materials industries led the declines, with decreases of 4.93%, 4.14%, 4.00%, 3.80%, and 3.71% respectively [29]. 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - From November 17th to November 21st, the week - on - week weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were negative, and the convertible bond market had a smaller weekly decline than the underlying stock market. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 7.94% week - on - week and was at the 57.20% quantile level since 2022; the trading volume of the underlying stock market decreased by 17.87% week - on - week and was at the 84.00% quantile level since 2022. The trading volume of both the underlying stock and convertible bond markets decreased significantly, and the underlying stock market had a larger decline in trading volume and a higher quantile level. In terms of the proportion of rising and falling stocks and bonds, about 11.33% of convertible bonds closed up, and about 5.80% of underlying stocks closed up; about 91.99% of convertible bonds had a larger increase or decrease than underlying stocks. In general, the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market was better this week [30]. 2. Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the short - term, it is still recommended to defend rather than attack in the convertible bond market. Consider diversification and diffusion in industry styles. Diversify by choosing some chemical targets such as Xingfa Convertible Bond, Hebang Convertible Bond, etc.; focus on the diffusion direction of the technology mainline, such as AI edge - side consumer electronics, and recommend targets like Weil Convertible Bond, Luxshare Convertible Bond, etc. Also, small - cap stocks may perform well during the diffusion period, and recommend targets such as Huachen Convertible Bond, Guoli Convertible Bond, etc [2][36]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for conversion parity premium rate repair next week are Hengbang Convertible Bond, Chutian Convertible Bond, etc [2][37].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07% on November 12, with 11 industries experiencing gains, led by household appliances and the comprehensive sector, which rose by 1.22% and 1.05% respectively [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were power equipment and machinery, which fell by 2.10% and 1.23% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 58.897 billion yuan across both markets, with five industries seeing net inflows [1] - The pharmaceutical and biological industry had the highest net inflow, amounting to 2.402 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.61% [1] - The banking sector also saw a net inflow of 1.810 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.50% [1] - A total of 26 industries experienced net outflows, with the power equipment sector leading at a net outflow of 17.743 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector with 6.711 billion yuan [1] Comprehensive Sector Performance - The comprehensive sector increased by 1.05%, with a total net inflow of 290 million yuan, comprising 16 stocks, of which 9 rose and 3 hit the daily limit [2] - The top stocks in terms of net inflow within the comprehensive sector included Yuegui Co. with 241 million yuan, followed by Nanjing New Hundred with 176 million yuan, and Sanmu Group with 1.984 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Zhangzhou Development, Dongyangguang, and Yatai Group, with outflows of 55.289 million yuan, 43.914 million yuan, and 31.299 million yuan respectively [2]

Global Economic Trends - Global economic growth is expected to be 2.8% in 2025, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the average growth rate from 2010 to 2019[14] - The World Bank predicts a global economic growth of only 2.3% in 2025, down from earlier forecasts[15] - International trade growth is anticipated to decline, with a projected decrease of 0.2% in global merchandise trade volume in 2025[16] China's Economic Outlook - China's GDP is projected to grow by approximately 4.7% in the second half of 2025, with a nominal GDP growth of 4.3% in the first half[27][28] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) may turn negative in the second half of 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by around 3.0% for the year[30] - The unemployment rate for urban areas averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year[27] A-Share Market Performance - A-share companies' overall market value creation ability decreased by nearly 40 basis points in 2024 compared to 2023[40] - The performance of A-share companies is increasingly diverging from nominal GDP growth, particularly in the manufacturing sector[40] - The return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) for A-share companies continued to decline in 2024[40] Sector-Specific Insights - The first industry saw a significant recovery in asset returns due to rising pork prices, while the second and third industries experienced declines[10] - R&D investment in some sectors continued to rise in 2024, although some industries began to see a decrease[10] - The manufacturing sector is facing severe "involution" competition, impacting profitability and pricing power[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 183 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.77%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 54 million yuan, up 40.91% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 47 million yuan, reflecting a 22.08% increase [3][6]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 99 million yuan, which is a 30.81% increase year-on-year and an 18.49% increase quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 30 million yuan, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 110.68% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.94% [6]. - The rapid growth in net profit is attributed to increased revenue and effective cost absorption due to business scale expansion, leading to a significant improvement in overall net profit margin [6]. - The company is focused on providing comprehensive analytical chromatography and industrial purification solutions for global biopharmaceutical companies, aiming to become the most trusted partner in the biopharmaceutical sector [6]. - The company is accelerating its R&D innovations, optimizing various coating and modification processes, and has developed new products that meet market demands, showcasing its unique core technology platforms in chromatographic media preparation [6][7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 384 million yuan in 2025, with net profit expected to reach 97 million yuan, and EPS forecasted at 0.23 yuan. For 2026, total revenue is estimated at 468 million yuan, with net profit of 120 million yuan and EPS of 0.29 yuan [7].

Group 1 - As of August 5, 2025, 24 public fund institutions participated in 47 A-share companies' private placements, with a total allocation amount of 14.198 billion yuan and a current floating profit of 4.650 billion yuan, representing a floating profit ratio of 32.75% [1][2][5] - 36 stocks received over 100 million yuan in allocations from public funds, with 18 stocks receiving between 100 million to 199 million yuan, 9 stocks receiving between 200 million to 499 million yuan, and another 9 stocks receiving no less than 500 million yuan [1][2] - The most favored stock by public funds was Haohua Technology, with a total allocation of 1.628 billion yuan from three public fund institutions [1][3] Group 2 - 46 public fund stocks achieved floating profits this year, with 6 stocks having a floating profit ratio of less than 10%, 5 stocks between 10%-19.99%, 23 stocks between 20%-49.99%, 7 stocks between 50%-99.99%, and 4 stocks with a floating profit ratio of no less than 100% [2][4] - The stock with the highest floating profit ratio was Jinghua New Materials, with a floating profit ratio of 200.89% from an allocation of 45.387 million yuan [2][3] - The electronic industry was the most favored sector for public fund private placements, with a total allocation of 2.176 billion yuan across five stocks [4][5] Group 3 - Among the public fund institutions, Nord Fund was the most active, participating in 46 A-share private placements with a total allocation of 5.633 billion yuan [6][9] - The top three public fund institutions by allocation amount this year are Nord Fund, Caitong Fund, and E Fund, with floating profit ratios of 30.02%, 32.69%, and 37.92% respectively [7][9] - The public utility sector had a floating profit ratio of 173.85% from an allocation of 1.037 billion yuan, while the electronic sector had a floating profit ratio of 26.51% from an allocation of 2.176 billion yuan [5][6]

Group 1 - The ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index increased by 2.2% this week, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.5% and the ChiNext Growth Index saw a 0.4% increase [1][2] - The ChiNext ETF (159915) experienced a net inflow for four consecutive days, totaling over 600 million yuan [1] - The rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the indices are as follows: ChiNext Index at 33.9 times, ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index at 124.9 times, and ChiNext Growth Index at 31.5 times [2][4] Group 2 - The ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index consists of 200 medium-sized stocks with good liquidity, primarily in the information technology sector, which accounts for over 40% [4] - The ChiNext Growth Index is composed of 50 stocks with strong growth characteristics, with the electric power equipment, pharmaceutical, and communication sectors making up approximately 60% [4] - There are currently 16 ETFs tracking the ChiNext Index, 5 for the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index, and 1 for the ChiNext Growth Index, with varying fee rates and tracking errors [4] Group 3 - Year-to-date performance shows the ChiNext Index up by 9.0%, the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index up by 17.8%, and the ChiNext Growth Index up by 16.1% [7] - Over the past year, the ChiNext Index has increased by 46.3%, the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index by 70.5%, and the ChiNext Growth Index by 56.5% [7] - Since their respective base dates, the cumulative performance is as follows: ChiNext Index up by 133.4%, ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index up by 314.8%, and ChiNext Growth Index up by 276.2% [7]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 529.43 million shares and a transaction value of 748.197 billion yuan, an increase of 3.12% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Comprehensive: +1.55% with a transaction value of 12.33 billion yuan, led by Dongyangguang (+3.39%) [1]. - Steel: +1.40% with a transaction value of 77.70 billion yuan, led by Maanshan Iron & Steel (+10.09%) [1]. - Real Estate: +1.22% with a transaction value of 82.89 billion yuan, led by Shanghai Shenda (+10.06%) [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Pharmaceutical Biology: -0.53% with a transaction value of 874.61 million yuan, led by Nanjing New Pharmaceutical (-9.28%) [2]. - Computer: -0.51% with a transaction value of 616.52 million yuan, led by Dahan Technology (-7.95%) [2]. - Building Materials: -0.18% with a transaction value of 82.91 million yuan, led by Honghe Technology (-6.57%) [2]. Summary of Trading Data - The overall market saw 3,084 stocks rise, with 34 hitting the daily limit up, while 2,060 stocks fell [1]. - The transaction values for various sectors showed significant fluctuations, with Comprehensive and Real Estate sectors experiencing notable increases in transaction values compared to the previous day [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the industry, particularly highlighting the demand for new drugs for rosacea [9][25]. Core Insights - There is a significant demand for new drugs to treat rosacea, with an estimated prevalence of 3.48% in China, translating to approximately 49 million patients [9][13]. - The current clinical treatment options for rosacea are limited, with many recommended drugs not available in China, creating a pressing need for safe and effective innovative products [4][25]. - CKBA shows potential as a treatment for rosacea, with a clinical pipeline that is currently sparse, indicating a favorable competitive landscape for future development [9][19][23]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Demand for New Drugs - Rosacea is a chronic inflammatory disease affecting the central face, with a high psychological burden on patients, leading to a strong desire for treatment [13]. - A survey indicated that 95.3% of patients express a need for treatment, highlighting the urgency for new therapeutic options [13]. Section 2: CKBA Potential - CKBA has been shown to strongly inhibit the differentiation of Th17 cells, which are implicated in the pathogenesis of rosacea, suggesting its potential efficacy across various clinical manifestations of the disease [19][23]. - The global pipeline for rosacea treatments is limited, with only six active candidates since 2020, and domestic development is nearly non-existent [23]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Given the high demand and limited treatment options, the report recommends focusing on companies like 泰恩康 (Tainkang) for potential investment opportunities in the rosacea treatment space [4][25].