铜钼矿产待重估，承建海南商业航天发射场 中国中铁(601390) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 韩其成(分析师) | 021-38676162 | hanqicheng@gtht.com | S0880516030004 | | 郭浩然(分析师) | 010-83939793 | guohaoran@gtht.com | S0880524020002 | | 曹有成(分析师) | 021-23185701 | caoyoucheng@gtht.com | S0880525040079 | 本报告导读： 铜、钴、钼保有储量国内领先，铜、钼产能国内前列。2025 年新签订单增长 1%， 其中海外订单增长 17%。 投资要点： [维持增持 Table_Summary] 。维持预测 2025–2027 年 EPS0.98/0.98/1.00 元同比-13.0%/- 0.1%/1.9%，给予公司 2026 年 9.3 倍 PE，对应维持目标价 9.07 元。 LME 铜现货结算价维持高位，中国中铁铜、钴、钼保有储量国 ...

重大合同快速增长，海外业务进展显著 华电科工(601226) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 韩其成(分析师) | 021-38676162 | hanqicheng@gtht.com | S0880516030004 | | 郭浩然(分析师) | 010-83939793 | guohaoran@gtht.com | S0880524020002 | | 曹有成(分析师) | 021-23185701 | caoyoucheng@gtht.com | S0880525040079 | 本报告导读： 2025 全年公告重大合同同比增 83.8%，其中 2025Q4 重大合同同比增 87.1%。重大 合同快速增长，并将在后续不断落地，预示公司基本面有望受益提升。 投资要点： [维持增持。 Table_Summary] 公司重大合同增速超预期，后续有望在利润端兑现，上调预 测 2025-2027 年 EPS0.17/0.25/0.28(原 0.16/0.19/0.20)元增 75%/42%/15%， 根据可比公司 ...

本报告导读： 2025 全年公告重大合同同比增 83.8%，其中 2025Q4 重大合同同比增 87.1%。重大 合同快速增长，并将在后续不断落地，预示公司基本面有望受益提升。 投资要点： [维持增持。 Table_Summary] 公司重大合同增速超预期，后续有望在利润端兑现，上调预 测 2025-2027 年 EPS0.17/0.25/0.28(原 0.16/0.19/0.20)元增 75%/42%/15%， 根据可比公司估值对比，给予目标价 15 元，对应 2026 年 60 倍 PE。 2025 全年公告重大合同同比增 83.8%，其中 2025Q4 重大合同同比增 87.1%。(1)我们对华电科工公告的重大合同进行了统计。公司 2025 年公 告的重大合同合计 125.14 亿元，较 2024 年增长 83.8%。其中，2025Q4 公告重大合同合计 54.72 亿元，同比增长 87.1%。(2)从重大合同的业务 结构看，2025 年热能工程板块新签重大合同 14.01 亿元，同比下降 17.1%；物料运输系统工程板块新签重大合同 61.56 亿元，同比增长 571%；海洋工程板块新签重大合同 35 ...

股票研究/[Table_Date] 2026.01.25 太空光伏迎新催化，关注建筑 AI 应用 [Table_Industry] 建筑工程业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 韩其成(分析师) | 021-38676162 | hanqicheng@gtht.com | S0880516030004 | | 郭浩然(分析师) | 010-83939793 | guohaoran@gtht.com | S0880524020002 | | 曹有成(分析师) | 021-23185701 | caoyoucheng@gtht.com | S0880525040079 | 太空光伏应用空间大，上海港湾持续推进卫星电源系统与钙钛矿太阳能电池研发。 AI 应用本月迎新催化，关注建筑 AI 应用标的。 投资要点： [太空光伏应用空间大， Table_Summary] 上海港湾持续推进卫星电源系统与钙钛矿太阳能 电池研发。(1)1 月 22 日，据澎湃新闻报道，特斯拉 CEO 马斯克在达沃 斯论坛年会期间表示，SpaceX ...

1.化工品涨价逻辑下，哪些建筑公司有望受益? 供需格局改善，"反内卷"背景下，化工品有望迎来涨价。从供给端看，化学原料及化学制品制造业投资增速自2022年以来持续回落，2025年6月投资增速由 正转负，申万基础化工板块在建工程/固定资产从2022年的峰值33.8%持续回落至2025Q1-3的24.4%。考虑到化工行业产能建设周期一般为3年左右，随着资本 开支大幅下行，当前我国化工行业新增产能投放已明显减少。除新增产能减少之外，受能耗双控、2025年深化环保政策影响，以及欧洲、日韩化工装置因成 本劣势在2025年出现的大规模关停(特别是乙烯、丙烯等基础化工原料)，部分化工行业老旧产能在加速退出，全球供给格局已有所改善。 从需求端看，当前虽然传统需求偏弱，但受制造业补库、春节前备货、出口增多、以及新型制造需求增长影响，部分化工品需求具备较强支撑。从数据上 看，2025年12月制造业PMI为50.1%，自2025年4月份以来首次回到扩张区间，其中生产与新订单分项同步回升，显示制造业需求正边际改善。 从库存周期看，化工行业可能正处于主动去库向被动去库切换的临界点。尽管2025H2受需求偏弱影响，化工原料及制品行业库存 ...

Macro Research - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is projected at 4.5%, showing a slight decline due to base effects, with a dual differentiation of supply exceeding demand and external demand outperforming internal demand [1][2] Real Estate Research - In 2025, the real estate sector is expected to experience a noticeable decline, aligning with earlier predictions that real estate companies will maintain positive cash flow and that the year will be risk-free [1][3] - The rental yield in first-tier cities has increased from 1.6% in 2020 to 1.9% in 2025, while the "rental yield + CPI" has decreased from 4.5% in 2019 to 2.0% in 2025, which is below mortgage rates but slightly above risk-free rates [5][32] - Second-tier cities are showing signs of price stabilization, with rental yields plus CPI improving from 2.3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 and maintaining that level in 2025 [6][33] - By the end of 2025, the proportion of residents willing to buy homes has increased to approximately 16%, with a notable rise in the percentage of declining listing prices [7][34] - The real estate investment is expected to decrease by 17.2% year-on-year, while sales are projected to decline by 12.6%, leading to a positive cash flow for the industry [8] Military Industry Research - The launch cycle of the Long March 12 rocket has been shortened, indicating a potential acceleration in China's commercial space launch schedule [12][13] - In 2025, China is expected to achieve multiple breakthroughs in manned spaceflight, deep space exploration, and commercial space, with a record 92 launches throughout the year [14][27] - The commercial space sector is anticipated to become a core investment direction in the military industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with new rocket types expected to enhance launch capabilities [15][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [3][8]. Core Views - The offshore wind power business of the company is expected to benefit from an increase in demand, with new orders and performance releases likely to accelerate. The hydrogen energy business aims to create an integrated model of "wind-solar-hydrogen-green ammonia," which will benefit from ongoing policy support [2][4]. Financial Forecast - The report forecasts EPS growth of 66%/13%/10% for 2025-2027, with projected EPS of 0.16/0.19/0.20 yuan respectively. The target price is set at 10.50 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 66 times for 2025 [3][21]. - Total revenue is projected to increase from 7,174 million yuan in 2023 to 10,757 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 5.1% in 2024 and 15.3% in 2025 [6][15]. Business Segments - The company has participated in over 40 offshore wind power, offshore photovoltaic, and marine ranching construction projects as of June 2025. A significant contract for a 1 million kW offshore wind power project in Dandong, Liaoning, worth approximately 3.415 billion yuan, was signed in November 2025, accounting for 45.29% of 2024 revenue [3][25]. - The hydrogen energy technology is leading in the industry, with the company achieving mass production of advanced proton exchange membranes, filling a domestic gap. The company’s order backlog and new contracts have reached historical highs, indicating a potential for rapid growth in the latter part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][28]. Market Trends - The report highlights a favorable outlook for the marine economy, with policies supporting offshore wind power expected to open up market opportunities. The average annual installed capacity for offshore wind power is projected to reach 20 GW during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][21]. - The company is also expanding its smart port and high-end steel structure businesses, which are expected to benefit from equipment renewal and smart upgrades during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 7.07 CNY [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.9% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, while new contracts signed increased by 6.5% [2][4]. - The company is implementing a comprehensive strategic layout across the province, nation, industry chain, and globally, leveraging its integrated "investment, construction, and operation" model [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 450.3 billion CNY, a decrease of 16.6% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.1 billion CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year [4]. - The gross profit margin increased by 0.9 percentage points to 13.1%, while the net profit margin rose slightly to 1.8% [4]. - The company’s operating cash flow net outflow narrowed to 19.7 billion CNY, compared to a net outflow of 52.6 billion CNY in the same period of 2024 [5]. Order Book and Market Strategy - New contracts signed in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1,122.1 billion CNY, reflecting a 6.5% increase year-on-year [5][15]. - The breakdown of new contracts includes 1,093.3 billion CNY from engineering construction, with significant contributions from infrastructure projects [15]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and accelerating transformation in traditional industries towards digitalization, intelligence, and sustainability [5][15]. Financial Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.70 CNY, 0.78 CNY, and 0.86 CNY respectively, reflecting a decrease of 11.1% in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years [3][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9.1 times for 2026, with a target price of 7.07 CNY [3][6]. Valuation Metrics - The current dividend yield is 4.1%, with a dividend payout ratio of 34.5% for the 2024 annual report [5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 8,051 million CNY, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.5 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced a significant investment plan for 2026, with a total of approximately 295 billion yuan allocated for major infrastructure projects, including the Guangzhou New Airport and the Zhanjiang to Haikou ferry project, with total investments exceeding 400 billion yuan [4][3] - The report emphasizes the orderly expansion of low-altitude economic application scenarios, with significant progress expected in housing quality improvement by 2030 [4][3] - The report recommends several companies in emerging sectors such as clean rooms, commercial aerospace, and controlled nuclear fusion, highlighting specific stocks like Yaxiang Integration and China Nuclear Engineering [4][6] Summary by Sections Recent Key Reports - The report discusses the need for high-demand, high-barrier, and high-profit leading companies in the construction industry, focusing on sectors like AI, controlled nuclear fusion, and low-altitude economy [8][10] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include China Construction (dividend yield 5.29%), China Railway (dividend yield 4.81%), and China Communications Construction (dividend yield 3.39%), all of which are expected to benefit from stable growth and government investment [6][4] Macro/Meso/Micro Data Tables - The report includes various data tables that provide insights into the financial performance and projections of key construction companies, indicating a trend of improving cash flow and profitability in certain sectors [6][4] Infrastructure Investment Trends - The report predicts a significant increase in infrastructure investment, with a projected growth rate of 10.9% for broad infrastructure investment in 2025, driven by government policies and funding mechanisms [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company, with a target price of 25.27 CNY, corresponding to a PE ratio of 24.8 for 2025 [3][9]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.3% in the first three quarters of 2025, while new contracts signed increased by 1.6%. The company is continuously enhancing its intelligent manufacturing capabilities, which has led to a reduction in production costs through the deployment of nearly 2,500 lightweight welding robots and rail-type robotic welding stations [2][4]. - The report indicates a downward revision in the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027, with expected EPS of 1.02, 1.18, and 1.32 CNY, reflecting changes of -9.2%, 16.0%, and 12.2% respectively [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 15.92 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 500 million CNY, down 24.3% compared to the previous year [4]. - The gross profit margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 10.4%, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 3.1% [4]. - The company achieved a net cash inflow from operating activities of 380 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to 330 million CNY in the same period of 2024 [5]. Contract and Production Insights - New contracts signed in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 22.27 billion CNY, reflecting a 1.6% increase from the same period in 2024. The breakdown includes 22.24 billion CNY in material orders and 30 million CNY in engineering orders [5][19]. - The production volume of steel structure products reached approximately 3.61 million tons, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year [5]. Intelligent Manufacturing Initiatives - The company has significantly invested in intelligent manufacturing, with nearly 2,500 lightweight welding robots and rail-type robotic welding stations now in large-scale operation. This initiative is expected to greatly enhance product quality and reduce production costs in the long term [6].