丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 预计基本面对债市定价权逐步抬升 ——9 月 PMI 点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 9 月制造业 PMI 环比增长 0.4pct 至 49.8%，略超预期但仍位于荣枯线以下，非制造业 PMI 回落 0.3pct 至 50.0%。供需关系仍需优化，生产是否"前置"有待观察。外需保持稳定、内需 恢复相对缓慢，"主要原材料购进价格-出厂价格"差值继续走阔，企业利润修复或承压。小型 企业景气度明显回升，新兴制造行业景气度改善。服务业景气度回落，建筑业改善但仍处相对 低位。PMI 修复的持续性有待观察，数据公布当日债市对基本面进一步定价，我们预计随着基 本面对债市的定价权逐步抬升，四季度债市表现或将好于三季度。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 事件评论 风险提示 1、经济基本面变化超预期；2、物价变化超预期；3、货币政策不及预期。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Ti ...

中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，9月份制造业PMI指数继续小幅回升，表明稳增长多项 政策的综合效果进一步显现。生产指数明显回升，采购量指数、生产经营活动预期指数回升，显示企业 生产经营活动有恢复迹象。同时要注意价格类指数均有不同程度回落，表明市场供大于求的情况仍然比 较突出；订单类指数均处荣枯线之下，需求不足问题仍需高度重视。 随着高温多雨极端天气影响消退，叠加扩内需促增长政策继续发力，制造业PMI出现回升，但仍位于荣 枯线之下。 国家统计局9月30日发布的数据显示，9月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，较上月上升0.4 个百分点，连续2个月上升。非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。 张立群表示，综合看，当前政策推动的经济回升因素与市场引导的经济收缩力量仍处激烈角力之中。要 以力度足够的政府投资有效激活企业投资需求和居民消费需求，使超大规模内需市场尽快摆脱市场引导 的收缩态势，尽快转入持续活跃扩张轨道。 制造业供需改善 9月份制造业部分行业迎来产销旺季，带动制造业整体生产活动加快扩张。生产指数为51.9%，较上月 上升1.1个百分点，连续2个月上升，连续5个月运 ...

比如，央行设立两个结构性货币政策工具。5月9日，中国人民银行印发《关于设立服务消费与养老再贷 款有关事宜的通知》，专门设立5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款，引导金融机构加大对住宿餐饮、文体 娱乐、教育、居民服务、旅游等服务消费重点领域和养老产业的信贷投放。目前，金融机构申报服务消 费与养老再贷款近600亿元，涉及经营主体近4000家，贷款5700多笔。 近日，商务部、中国人民银行等部门印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》(以下简称《政策措 施》)，提出发挥金融、财政等政策合力，从供需两端激发服务消费新增量，促进服务消费高质量发 展。 政策合力效应显现 服务消费是经济增长的重要驱动力，在外部环境不确定性加大、国内经济转型调整的宏观背景下，提振 服务消费的必要性不断凸显。 政策引领加快服务消费提质发展。"去年以来，按照党中央、国务院关于大力提振消费、全方位扩大国 内需求的决策部署，中国人民银行出台了一系列金融支持政策，有效带动扩大服务消费供给，支持更好 满足居民服务消费需求。"中国人民银行信贷市场司负责人杨虹表示。 此外，《政策措施》提出，综合运用货币信贷等政策工具，支持金融机构扩大服务消费领域信贷投放， 加大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint issuance of the "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption" by nine government departments aims to address the bottlenecks in service consumption through a coordinated multi-departmental approach, emphasizing the importance of financial support and collaboration among various sectors [1] Group 1: Policy Measures Overview - The policy measures include nineteen specific tasks across five areas: cultivating service consumption promotion platforms, enriching high-quality service supply, stimulating new service consumption growth, enhancing financial support, and improving statistical monitoring systems [1] - The financial sector is highlighted as a key participant in resolving service consumption bottlenecks, with a call for proactive engagement and integration of monetary, credit, and capital market policies [1] Group 2: Financial Sector Initiatives - Financial institutions are encouraged to expand high-quality financial service offerings to meet the unmet financial demands of the service consumption sector and residents, particularly in areas like elderly care, childcare, and cultural tourism [2] - The central bank's establishment of a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly re-loan fund is emphasized as a tool to incentivize financial institutions to increase support for sectors such as accommodation and entertainment [2] Group 3: Consumer Credit Support - There is a push to enhance support for consumer credit to stimulate resident consumption potential, with initiatives like tax refunds and consumption vouchers being highlighted [3] - The number of tax refund stores is projected to reach 10,000 by mid-2025, tripling from the end of 2024, with a 98% increase in tax refund sales [3] Group 4: Financial Product Optimization - Financial institutions are urged to continuously optimize financial products and services to provide diverse, high-quality consumption options, focusing on key consumption areas such as food, housing, and entertainment [4] - There is a call for increased support for various types of loans, including first loans, renewal loans, and credit loans, to enhance the financial backing for the consumption sector [4] Group 5: Risk Management and Compliance - Financial institutions are advised to improve credit structure and risk management to ensure precise financial services, avoiding extremes in credit work that could overlook risks [4] - The importance of regulatory measures to enhance compliance and prevent financial bottlenecks in service consumption is emphasized, promoting a virtuous cycle of demand upgrading, supply optimization, and consumption expansion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of policy measures aimed at expanding service consumption, which is seen as a crucial driver for economic growth and improving living standards [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The policy measures focus on addressing bottlenecks in service consumption development, emphasizing the combination of improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [1]. - Initiatives include creating high-profile sports events, expanding long-term care insurance, and supporting early childhood education to enhance service consumption [1]. - The measures aim to optimize supply and stimulate demand by promoting new consumption models and increasing quality service resources in sectors like culture and tourism [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - In the first half of the year, over 19 million foreign visitors entered China, marking a 30% year-on-year increase, with visa-free entries rising by 54% [3]. - The number of duty-free shops has tripled compared to the end of 2024, with a 248% increase in the number of people benefiting from duty-free refunds [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce is working to enhance high-quality consumption supply and create diverse consumption scenarios to boost inbound consumption [3]. Group 3: Service Quality Improvement - The government plans to enhance service supply quality by promoting innovation in service sectors through initiatives like "Artificial Intelligence+" [4]. - There is a focus on improving service levels in key areas such as childcare, elderly care, and tourism by increasing skilled labor supply and implementing credit systems [4][5]. - The establishment of a unified market environment is being prioritized to facilitate fair market access, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises [5]. Group 4: Financial Support - The People's Bank of China has allocated 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care refinancing, encouraging financial institutions to increase lending in key service sectors [5]. - As of July, the loan balance in key service consumption areas reached 2.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [5].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan re-lending program to support service consumption and elderly care, aiming to guide financial institutions to increase credit investment in key sectors such as accommodation, catering, cultural and entertainment, education, resident services, and tourism [1] - Financial institutions have reported nearly 60 billion yuan in applications for the service consumption and elderly care re-lending, involving nearly 4,000 operating entities and over 5,700 loans [1] - A separate re-lending program for technological innovation and technological transformation was set up with an initial 500 billion yuan in April 2024, which has been expanded to 800 billion yuan this year to encourage banks to support credit for key equipment upgrade projects [1] Group 2 - In the first half of this year, the technological innovation and technological transformation re-lending supported nearly 100 projects in accommodation, catering, cultural education, and tourism sectors, with loan contracts signed amounting to approximately 11.9 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of the PMI manufacturing index in August, along with improvements in production, new orders, and prices, indicates the initial effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and countering excessive competition. The stock market's recovery is boosting economic confidence, which may lead to a rebound in consumer spending. Future policies to expand domestic demand are expected to strengthen the positive economic trend, especially in the service consumption sector as the impact of durable goods policies diminishes [1][7]. Group 1: Economic Resilience - The production index in August rose to 50.8%, while the new orders index was at 49.5%, indicating a strong resilience in the economy despite a widening supply-demand gap of 1.3 percentage points [2]. - The increase in production is attributed to stable domestic demand and a recovering stock market, alongside exporters rushing to ship goods due to new tax regulations [2]. Group 2: Price Index Trends - The PMI output price index and raw material purchase price index increased by 0.8 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points to 49.1% and 53.3%, respectively, marking three consecutive months of price increases [3]. - The rise in prices is linked to the initial success of measures to curb excessive competition, with 11 out of 16 industries showing price increases [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Procurement Dynamics - The finished goods inventory index fell by 0.6 percentage points to 46.8%, while raw material inventory and procurement levels rose, indicating a shift towards passive inventory reduction [4]. - Companies are adjusting procurement levels in response to new orders, maintaining low inventory levels as demand and exports increase [4]. Group 4: Performance of Enterprises - Large enterprises saw a significant increase in their index to 50.8%, while small enterprises slightly rose to 46.6%, and medium enterprises fell to 48.9% [5]. - The service sector, particularly transportation and entertainment, benefited from summer consumption, with business activity indices for rail and air transport exceeding 55% [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The PMI manufacturing index remains in contraction for five consecutive months, highlighting ongoing economic pressures, particularly for small and medium enterprises [7]. - Continued policy support is necessary to sustain economic recovery, especially in demand, with upcoming measures to stimulate service consumption and digital economy initiatives [7].

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index are at 50.3% and 50.5%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points [1][3] - The overall economic climate in China continues to expand, with expectations for sustained release of domestic demand potential in September and the fourth quarter [1][11] Manufacturing Sector - In August, various sub-indices within the manufacturing sector, including production, new orders, and procurement volume, showed increases ranging from 0.1 to 1.8 percentage points, while the inventory and employment indices saw slight declines [3][10] - The prices of major raw materials and factory output have also improved, with indices at 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, marking a continuous rise for three months [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index has stabilized above 50%, with new orders showing a slight increase, indicating a stable operational environment [5] - The financial services sector, including banking and capital markets, has shown strong performance, with business activity indices above 60% [5][4] Consumer Activity - The hospitality and restaurant sectors have seen significant increases in their business activity indices, with both indices rising over 5 percentage points compared to the previous month [6] - Transportation sectors, including rail and air travel, have maintained high activity levels, with indices above 59% [7] Emerging Industries - The information services sector, particularly telecommunications and internet services, is experiencing robust growth, with business activity indices above 55% [8] - The ongoing "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to further enhance the application scenarios and development potential of the information services industry [8] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the macroeconomic environment will continue to improve, with stable recovery in manufacturing demand and expansion in production activities [11][12] - The impact of recent policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth, including support for new industrialization and carbon market development, is expected to inject new momentum into the economy [12]

Core Viewpoint - Individual businesses play a crucial role in stabilizing growth, promoting employment, and improving livelihoods in the market economy [2][3] Group 1: Support for Individual Businesses - The State Administration for Market Regulation has held two events to engage with individual businesses, platform companies, and financial institutions to enhance support [2][3] - Policies have been introduced to provide targeted financial support, with local departments actively implementing measures to assist individual businesses in financing [4][5] - The number of new business entities established in the first half of the year reached 13.278 million, with individual businesses accounting for 8.629 million [4] Group 2: Consumption and Economic Growth - The recovery of the consumption market is expected, particularly in the restaurant sector, with growth anticipated to improve month by month [2][7] - A consumption subsidy of approximately 90 billion is expected to boost retail sales by about 0.3 percentage points in the second half of the year [2] - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting new consumption models and integrating various sectors to enhance service consumption [7][8] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Future Outlook - The market regulatory authority emphasizes the need for innovative support measures to enhance the operational capabilities of individual businesses [4][5] - The government is focusing on increasing high-quality service supply and stimulating various service sectors to meet consumer demand [8] - Recent policies, including personal consumption loan interest subsidies, aim to boost consumer confidence and spending [8]

Core Insights - Beijing has made significant progress in establishing itself as an international consumption center, with 469 new flagship stores opened in the first half of the year, highlighting the city's growing appeal and consumer engagement [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Beijing government has introduced multiple consumer promotion policies aimed at enhancing urban charm and cultural richness, including over 20 policies in fashion, culture, ice and snow, and dining sectors [4]. - A special action plan has been implemented to stimulate consumption, focusing on addressing bottlenecks and enhancing consumer experience [4]. Group 2: Infrastructure Development - Over the past three years, Beijing has opened an average of 1.5 million square meters of new commercial facilities annually, with notable openings this year including the Super Union and Zhongguancun Mall [5]. - A new one-stop commercial complex, Bayli Project, covering nearly 500,000 square meters, is set to launch in December, further enhancing the city's retail landscape [5]. Group 3: Consumer Experience Enhancement - Beijing is actively integrating cultural, commercial, and tourism sectors, organizing over 1,100 large-scale events in the first half of the year, which is expected to boost consumer engagement [6]. - The city has optimized the consumption environment by removing regulatory barriers, such as eliminating the need for fire safety approvals for temporary commercial activities [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The city aims to continue advancing its status as an international consumption center, focusing on creating a more comfortable shopping experience and improving overall quality of life for residents [8].