Group 1 - The company, Xtep International (01368), announced a mid-term dividend of HKD 0.18 per share to be distributed on October 30, 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - For FY2026Q1 (March 30, 2025 - June 28, 2025), VF achieved revenue of $1.76 billion, a slight decline of 2% year-on-year at fixed exchange rates, which is better than market expectations and the company's prior guidance [2][4] - The gross margin increased by 2.7 percentage points to 53.9%, driven mainly by improved discounts and exchange rate factors [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - **By Brand**: - Vans continued to face pressure with a revenue decline of 15% to $500 million - The North Face grew by 5% to $560 million - Timberland increased by 9% to $260 million [5] - **By Region**: - Revenue in the Americas declined by 3% to $940 million - EMEA saw a decrease of 2% to $550 million - APAC grew by 4% to $270 million, with Greater China down by 6% [5] - **By Channel**: - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue fell by 4% to $720 million - Wholesale channel revenue remained flat at $1.04 billion [5] Inventory and Tariff Impact - At the end of FY2026Q1, the company's inventory increased by 4% year-on-year to $2.14 billion, maintaining overall healthy inventory quality [10] - Tariff expectations are projected to impact gross profit by $60-70 million in FY2026, with half of this expected to occur in FY2026 [10] Performance Guidance - For FY2026Q2, the company expects revenue to decline by 2%-4% year-on-year at fixed exchange rates, with adjusted operating profit projected between $260 million and $290 million [10]

Overall Inventory Cycle - In May, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 2.62% year-on-year, down from 3.15% in the previous period[12] - Sales in May rose by 3.30% year-on-year, compared to 3.68% previously[12] - The U.S. is confirmed to be entering an active destocking phase, with a significant import surge occurring from November 2024 to March 2025[12] - A brief replenishment demand is expected in June and July, after which active destocking will continue[12] Industry Inventory Cycle - Six out of fourteen major industries are in active destocking as of May, including oil, gas, chemicals, transportation, automotive parts, textiles, and food[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in May is 32.4%, with construction materials at 83.6% and chemicals at 69.3%[19] - The first round of excess imports is estimated at $180 billion and the second at $100 billion, totaling $280 billion, which may be exhausted by November[12] - Recent rapid declines in copper prices are attributed to a 50% tariff on copper products while exempting raw materials, disrupting supply and demand dynamics[13] Risk Factors - The potential for U.S. economic fundamentals and policies to exceed expectations poses a risk to inventory and pricing stability[8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - Anta's retail performance in Q2 2025 showed low single-digit growth for the Anta brand, while FILA brand experienced mid-single-digit growth, and other brands grew by 50%-55% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company is facing short-term operational pressure due to intensified competition and discounting, but the long-term outlook remains stable with expected healthy growth in revenue and net profit for H1 2025 [8]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 134 billion, 150 billion, and 166 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 11%, and 11% [8]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta's retail performance in Q2 2025 was slightly below expectations, primarily due to adjustments in offline franchise stores and pressure from the 618 sales event [8]. - FILA's performance met expectations, with stable discounts in offline channels and a slight increase in e-commerce discounts [8]. Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Anta are 70,826 million in 2024, 77,975 million in 2025, 85,282 million in 2026, and 92,167 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 13.58%, 10.09%, 9.37%, and 8.07% respectively [10]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 13,420 million, showing a decrease of 13.95% compared to 2024, followed by increases of 11.47% and 10.93% in the subsequent years [10].

Overall Inventory Cycle - In April, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 3.37% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 3.43%[1] - The total sales in April rose by 3.74% year-on-year, down from 4.04% previously[1] - The data indicates a preliminary shift towards active destocking in the U.S. inventory cycle[1] Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industries in April, 10 were in passive restocking, including construction materials, metals, and consumer goods[12] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in April was 39.2%, with chemical products at 85.7% and construction materials at 83.2%[12] - Oil and chemical sectors are likely transitioning to active destocking, while construction and metal inventories remain high[12] Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties regarding tariffs, the U.S. inventory cycle is expected to lean towards active destocking in Q2 due to previous overstocking[1] - The "panic import" demand has extended the passive restocking cycle for downstream industries[14] - Active destocking is anticipated for automotive and automotive parts as of December 2024, with a continued trend into April 2025[14]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs [1][11] - The S&P 500 index is reported at 6178.3 points, up 0.59%, while the Nasdaq index is at 20294.93 points, up 0.64% [11] - The technology sector is leading the market recovery, with the S&P 500 index rising over 20% since its low on April 8 [11][12] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is facing increasing complexity, with the PCE inflation indicator exceeding expectations [2][6] - The PCE index for May shows a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, while the core PCE index rose by 2.68%, the highest since February 2025 [7][8] - Economists predict that inflation may rise in the coming months as higher import tariffs are passed on to consumers [8] Group 3 - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that the White House is close to finalizing trade agreements with ten major trading partners [4][5] - The Trump administration aims to complete these trade negotiations before the Labor Day holiday on September 1 [5] - If agreements are not reached in time, Trump may issue letters to specify trade terms directly [4] Group 4 - Nike's stock surged by 14% after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, despite a 12% year-over-year revenue decline [13] - Nike's revenue for the quarter was $11.1 billion, exceeding market expectations of $10.72 billion [13] - The company indicated that the trend of declining annual sales is beginning to ease, suggesting the effectiveness of CEO Elliott Hill's strategic initiatives [13]

Group 1 - US stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.25%, S&P 500 up 0.16%, and Nasdaq up 0.24% [3][5] - Cyngn saw a significant increase, rising over 70% [3][5] - Nike's stock rose nearly 12% after the company reported better-than-expected revenue for Q4 2025 [3][12] Group 2 - The Nasdaq index broke its previous high from December 2024, reaching a new historical peak [1] - The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.1% month-on-month in May, while the core PCE index rose by 0.2% [9] - The year-on-year increase in the core PCE price index for May was 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.5% [11] Group 3 - European stock indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.76%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.52%, and France's CAC40 up 1.31% [7][8]

Group 1 - The actual controller of Aokang International, Wang Zhentao, holds 60.5567 million shares, accounting for 15.10% of the total share capital, with a cumulative pledge of 60 million shares, representing 99.08% of his holdings [1] - The controlling shareholder, Aokang Investment, and its concerted party, Wang Zhentao, collectively hold 172 million shares, which is 42.83% of the total share capital, with a cumulative pledge of 111 million shares, accounting for 64.70% of their holdings [1] - Wang Zhentao pledged 26 million shares to Tianjin Trust on June 23, 2025, which is 42.93% of his holdings and 6.48% of the total share capital, with the pledged financing used to supplement working capital [1] Group 2 - As of the announcement date, the controlling shareholder Aokang Investment and its concerted party, Wang Zhentao, have a total pledged share of 137 million shares, which is 34.19% of the total share capital [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - In FY2025Q1 (January 1, 2025 - March 31, 2025), Adidas achieved revenue of €6.15 billion, slightly above expectations (Bloomberg consensus expected €6.10 billion), with a year-on-year growth of 13% at constant exchange rates. Excluding the impact of Yeezy, Adidas brand revenue grew by 17% year-on-year [2][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was €430 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 151%. The gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 52.1%, primarily due to lower product costs and shipping expenses, as well as improved discounts [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - **By Region**: Excluding the Yeezy business, all regions showed strong growth. Latin America and emerging markets continued robust growth, with revenues increasing by 26% and 23% year-on-year to €700 million and €870 million, respectively. Europe, Greater China, and Japan/Korea regions grew by 14%, 13%, and 13% year-on-year, respectively. North America was impacted by the cessation of Yeezy business, with a revenue growth of only 3% year-on-year, but grew by 13% when excluding this factor [5] - **By Channel**: Both DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) and wholesale channels achieved quality growth. Wholesale channel revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to €4.0 billion, benefiting from high sell-through rates and product mix adjustments. E-commerce channel revenue decreased by 3% due to the impact of Yeezy business separation, but grew by 18% when excluding this factor. DTC channel revenue grew by 6% year-on-year to €2.16 billion, driven by double-digit same-store sales growth in owned stores [5] - **By Product**: Footwear products continued to lead growth, with revenue increasing by 17% year-on-year to €3.76 billion. Apparel and equipment also showed growth, with revenues increasing by 8% and 10% year-on-year to €1.97 billion and €424 million, respectively. In FY2025Q1, footwear, apparel, and equipment accounted for 61%, 32%, and 7% of total revenue, respectively, indicating a healthy product mix [6] Inventory and Tariff Impact - Inventory remained healthy, supporting continued growth, with FY2025Q1 inventory at €5.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15% [12] - The impact of tariffs was relatively small due to low procurement from China, with approximately 20% of revenue from the US market, which can be compensated by strong performance in other mature markets. The procurement ratio for footwear from China is around 3%, moving towards zero, and for apparel, it is less than 2% [12] Performance Guidance - The company maintains its full-year guidance, expecting FY2025 revenue to grow at a high single-digit rate at constant exchange rates (Bloomberg expects revenue of €26.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%). The expected operating profit for FY2025 is between €1.7 billion and €1.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.2% to 34.6% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The overall inventory cycle in the U.S. is likely transitioning towards an active destocking phase by 2025, with significant implications for various industries [1][2][3]. Overall Inventory Cycle - In February, U.S. total inventory increased by 2.45% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.25%. Sales increased by 3.45% year-on-year, down from 3.69% [2][3]. - The inventory cycle remains in a passive restocking phase due to "import grabbing," with Q1 net imports increasing by $359.26 billion year-on-year, of which over one-third ($129.71 billion) converted into inventory [2][3]. Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industry categories, 8 are in a passive restocking phase, including upstream chemical products, building materials, midstream electrical equipment, and downstream durable consumer goods [4]. - Historical inventory percentiles show that total inventory is at a historical percentile of 30.5%, with building materials at 71.5%, automotive parts at 67.8%, and paper and forestry products at 53.8% [4]. Upstream Inventory Status - Half of the upstream industries are in passive restocking, while the other half are in active destocking [5][6][7][8]. - Specific sectors like oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels are in active destocking as of February 2025 [5]. Midstream Inventory Status - Inventory status is mixed, with paper and forestry products in active restocking, while electrical equipment and transportation are in passive restocking [9][10]. - Mechanical manufacturing is currently in passive destocking [9]. Downstream Inventory Status - The current passive restocking phase is prolonged, indicating potential "import grabbing" demand [11]. - Automotive parts are transitioning to active destocking as of February 2025, while other sectors like household durable goods and textiles remain in passive restocking [11].