行 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 12 月 15 日 业 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：继续看好商业航天 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周（12.8-12.12）申万军工指数（801740）上升 2.80%，同期沪深 300 指数下跌 0.08%，相对超额 2.88pct，主要系商业航天板块热度持续带动。 我们认为，可回收火箭的发射试验突破，给行业底层逻辑带来明确拐点， 火箭可复用打通产业瓶颈，制约行业爆发的底层运力问题如得到解决，则 将显著提升卫星批量组网能力，产业链底层逻辑将从"运力稀缺"转化为 "规模应用"。 此外，本周 GEV 宣布扩产，英伟达宣布下周将举办数据中心电力短 缺问题峰会，带动燃气轮机发电板块热度重启；BEST 项目多个中标候选 人公布，核聚变产业 CAPEX 投资逐渐落地到公司业务及报表端，带动核 聚变板关注度又起。 资金层面，本周被动资金净流出，杠杆类资金净流入额大幅提升；考 虑到军工行业 2026 年行业强需求恢复预期及确定性，看好后续资金面持续 向好。 估值层面，截至 12 月 12 日，申万军工指数五年维度看，当前市盈率 TTM（剔除负值）70.67 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant progress and strategic developments in Hainan's Free Trade Port, emphasizing its role in promoting high-quality economic growth and enhancing the overall living standards of its residents [3][5][24]. Group 1: Economic Development - Hainan's trade and investment policies are set to enhance cross-border capital flow, with the total trade volume projected to increase from 933 billion in 2020 to 2,778 billion by 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 31.3% for goods trade and 32.3% for service trade [7]. - The province has established a robust foreign investment environment, with 176 countries and regions investing in Hainan, and actual foreign investment reaching 166.7 billion over the past four years, growing at an annual rate of 15.8% [7]. - Hainan has opened 79 international passenger shipping routes, covering 21 countries and 39 cities, positioning itself as a rising international shipping hub [8]. Group 2: Industry Strengthening - The province is focusing on four key industries: tourism, modern services, high-tech industries, and tropical agriculture, aiming to create a modern industrial system with Hainan characteristics [10][11]. - The agricultural sector is being enhanced with over 2,800 enterprises in seed production, generating an annual output value exceeding 18 billion [11]. - Hainan's digital economy is projected to grow significantly, with over 400 enterprises expected to generate around 200 billion in revenue by 2024 [12]. Group 3: Business Environment - Hainan is committed to creating a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment, with initiatives such as the introduction of the Fair Competition Regulation and the reduction of administrative licensing requirements [16]. - The province has seen a surge in project signings, with 26 key projects covering multiple cities, reflecting the confidence of enterprises in Hainan's business environment [16]. - Hainan's talent recruitment efforts have intensified, with over 8,000 job positions offered in recent recruitment events, showcasing the province's commitment to attracting skilled professionals [17][19]. Group 4: Social Welfare - Hainan has implemented a senior meal service program, with 118 facilities serving over 500,000 individuals, enhancing the quality of life for the elderly [20]. - The province has added 170,000 public education seats in the past four years, exceeding national averages in various educational metrics [21]. - Healthcare resources have been expanded, achieving the goal of providing comprehensive medical services within the province [21].

Core Insights - Harbin aims to establish a nationally influential regional technology innovation center, focusing on "technology innovation leading comprehensive industrial revitalization" [1] Group 1: Major Technological Breakthroughs - Harbin has targeted national strategic needs, achieving significant advancements in aerospace, agriculture, and deep-sea technology [2] - The "Space Environment Ground Simulation Device," built by Harbin Institute of Technology and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, has conducted over 2000 experimental tests, supporting various fields including crop mutation breeding [2] - In 2025, Harbin is set to complete 232 major technology projects, with breakthroughs in 84 key industrial technologies, showcasing a full-chain capability from basic research to applied innovation [2] Group 2: Innovation Ecosystem Development - Harbin's technology departments have initiated the construction of four innovation and entrepreneurship ecosystems around key universities, fostering 163 technology-based enterprises and achieving 194 technology transactions worth 450 million yuan in 2023 [3] - The Advanced Technology Research Institute of Harbin Institute of Technology has facilitated the establishment of 18 new companies and attracted over 50 high-end talents, with expected output exceeding 5 billion yuan in three years [3] Group 3: Growth of High-tech Enterprises - Harbin has established a three-tier cultivation system for high-tech enterprises, resulting in a 40% annual growth rate in high-tech companies since 2020, with a total of 3041 recognized by 2024 [4] - The number of national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises has increased by 7.5 times since 2020, indicating a vibrant ecosystem of diverse innovative entities [4] - Harbin is positioned as a technology innovation hub, driving industrial revitalization and attracting talent, with ongoing optimization of the innovation ecosystem expected to accelerate the commercialization of technological achievements [4]

Core Points - The provincial leaders are actively promoting the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session to ensure the implementation of central policies in Hainan [2][5][12] - The focus is on translating the session's spirit into practical work measures to enhance the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port [2][3][4] Group 1: Implementation of Policies - Provincial leaders emphasize the importance of understanding and implementing Xi Jinping's important speeches and the significance of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [3][5] - There is a strong push for high-quality development, particularly in digital and marine economies, as well as green development initiatives [3][4] - The leaders are tasked with ensuring that the economic and social development goals for the year are met, contributing to overall growth in Hainan [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Planning - The need for a scientifically crafted "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, focusing on major projects that align with national needs and local capabilities [3][4][12] - Emphasis is placed on developing a modern industrial system, particularly in sectors like construction, marine equipment manufacturing, and tropical agriculture [4][7] - The leaders are encouraged to integrate the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session into their planning and execution of local development strategies [10][12] Group 3: Governance and Party Discipline - There is a commitment to advancing strict party governance and maintaining a clean political environment, with a focus on combating corruption [3][4][9] - The leaders are urged to enhance political construction and ensure that the party's principles are reflected in local governance [4][9][11] - Continuous efforts are required to improve the effectiveness of governance and risk management in economic and social development [10][12]

Core Insights - The strategic goal of building the Hainan Free Trade Port is to establish it as a significant gateway for China's new era of opening up to the outside world [1][3] - Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start its full island closure operation on December 18, 2025, implementing a policy characterized by "one line open, one line controlled, and free movement within the island" [3][4] - Hainan's unique value lies in its position as a bridge connecting domestic and international markets, facilitating the flow of goods, capital, and talent [3][4] Economic Impact - Since the implementation of the free trade port policies, Hainan has attracted actual foreign investment of 102.5 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 14.6% [5] - The province has seen a significant increase in foreign direct investment, reaching 9.78 billion USD, with an annual growth rate of 97% [5] - The total value of Hainan's foreign trade is projected to reach 277.65 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 20% [5] Policy Framework - Hainan's free trade port policy framework is characterized by "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems," along with "five freedoms and one safety" for the cross-border flow of factors [4] - The region is not merely a policy lowland but aims to establish a compliance mechanism that aligns with international rules [4] Industrial Development - The modern service industry in Hainan is expected to grow by 7% in 2024, significantly outpacing the GDP growth rate [5] - Key sectors such as modern logistics, modern trade, and modern finance are becoming critical engines for the economy of the free trade port [5] - Hainan is transitioning from a local participant in the industrial chain to becoming a "key player" in the global industrial chain [6]

Group 1 - Hainan has launched a series of new initiatives under the "Duty-Free+" concept during the recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, effectively meeting diverse consumer needs and showcasing the achievements of the free trade port construction [1] - The upcoming full island closure of Hainan's free trade port is expected to bring significant changes in customs supervision and tax collection, creating real opportunities and benefits for businesses and the public [1] - The expansion of the "zero tariff" product range to approximately 6,600 tax items is a key feature of the free trade port's operation, which will also include reforms such as overseas certification trials and tax incentives for high-tech industries [1] Group 2 - Systematic improvements in people's livelihoods are fundamentally reliant on development, ensuring that more individuals and businesses benefit from the free trade port's operations [2] - The focus on developing key industries such as seed industry, deep-sea, aerospace, and high-efficiency tropical agriculture will enhance the quality of life for both local residents and incoming talent [2] - The emphasis on creating a market-oriented, legal, and international business environment is crucial for stimulating internal motivation and innovation, particularly with the full island closure as a catalyst [3] Group 3 - The implementation of simplified approval reforms and a unified regulatory service mechanism aims to minimize unnecessary interference and enhance efficiency in business operations [3] - The ongoing reforms in various regions, such as Shanghai and Guangdong, highlight the importance of steady progress in improving public welfare and ensuring sustainable livelihood guarantees [3]

Group 1 - Hainan has launched a series of new initiatives under the "duty-free +" concept during the recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, effectively meeting diverse consumer needs and showcasing the achievements of the free trade port construction [1] - The upcoming full island customs closure in Hainan is expected to bring significant changes in customs supervision and tax collection systems, creating real opportunities and benefits for businesses and the public [1] - The expansion of the "zero tariff" product range to approximately 6,600 tax items is a key feature of the customs closure operation, which will also include reforms such as overseas certification trials and tax incentives for high-tech industries [1] Group 2 - Systematic improvements in people's livelihoods are fundamentally reliant on development, ensuring that more individuals and businesses benefit from the customs closure operations [2] - The focus on developing future industries such as seed industry, deep-sea, and aerospace, along with high-efficiency tropical agriculture, is expected to enhance the quality of life for both local residents and incoming talent [2] - The establishment of a market-oriented, legal, and international business environment is crucial for stimulating internal motivation and innovation, with reforms aimed at reducing human intervention in administrative processes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The development prospects for the private economy in the Hainan Free Trade Port are broad and promising, with significant opportunities for private enterprises and entrepreneurs to thrive as the port construction progresses [1]. Group 1: Private Enterprises in Hainan - As of June 30, 2023, there are 360.44 million private business entities in Hainan, accounting for 97.54% of the province's total business entities, with 937,200 private enterprises contributing nearly 60% of the GDP and about 90% of employment [2]. - Private enterprises are seen as a crucial driving force in the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port, enhancing overall strength, innovation capability, and market competitiveness [2]. Group 2: Legislative Support for Private Economy - The "Several Provisions on Promoting the Development of the Private Economy in Hainan Free Trade Port" was implemented on July 30, 2023, aimed at optimizing the development environment for private enterprises and ensuring fair market competition [3]. - This legislation is the first local regulation following the national "Private Economy Promotion Law" and consists of 29 articles focusing on fair competition, policy empowerment, and financial support [3]. Group 3: Policy Empowerment for Private Economy - The provisions encourage private economic organizations to participate in key industries such as tourism, modern services, high-tech industries, and tropical agriculture, and to engage in significant project construction [4]. - The regulations also support technological innovation, urging private enterprises to increase R&D investment in strategic emerging industries and establish mechanisms for collaboration with research institutions [4]. Group 4: Internationalization and Trade Support - The provisions require relevant departments to enhance service and regulatory collaboration, providing one-stop services for cross-border trade and investment, and supporting private enterprises in international expansion [5]. - Hainan's policies, including "zero tariffs" and "low tax rates," are expected to reduce corporate tax burdens and investment costs, thereby attracting more investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The "Regulations on Promoting the Development of the Private Economy in Hainan Free Trade Port" (referred to as "Regulations") has been officially implemented, marking the first local legislation in China aimed at promoting the private economy following the promulgation of the Private Economy Promotion Law. This legislation provides legal support for private enterprises in Hainan to seize opportunities and respond to challenges in the context of trade liberalization [1][2]. Group 1: Fair Competition and Policy Support - The Regulations ensure fair competition by stipulating equal access to various production factors and public service resources, and by prohibiting entry barriers and restrictions against private economic organizations in public resource transactions [1]. - The Regulations empower private economic organizations to participate in the development of Hainan's four leading industries and key project construction, ensuring equal enjoyment of tax incentives and other benefits under the Hainan Free Trade Port policies [1]. Group 2: Financial Support Measures - The Regulations include multiple financial support measures, mandating the establishment of a government financing guarantee system and requiring banks to provide loans secured by accounts receivable, warehouse receipts, equity, and intellectual property [2]. - Financial institutions are required to treat private economic organizations equally in terms of guarantees, credit, and risk management, and are prohibited from imposing discriminatory thresholds or unreasonable credit conditions [2]. Group 3: Implementation and Future Measures - The Hainan Provincial Development and Reform Commission is focused on ensuring that policy benefits reach private economic organizations by addressing market access, government-enterprise communication, and supporting policies [3]. - Hainan is actively implementing 22 special measures to relax market access and is researching the introduction of a second batch of measures [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Provincial Government has released a three-year action plan (2025-2027) to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system with distinctive advantages, focusing on the development of seed industry, deep-sea industry, and aerospace innovation [1][2][3] Group 1: Seed Industry - Hainan aims to establish a "Southern Breeding Silicon Valley" to enhance the seed industry, focusing on "seed source, seed industry, and seed market" [1] - The plan includes the establishment of major research facilities centered on biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and big data, and the introduction of national-level seed industry innovation platforms [1] - The goal is to implement seed industry revitalization actions and cultivate a number of leading seed enterprises [1] Group 2: Deep-Sea Industry - The action plan emphasizes the development of emerging marine industries, including the enhancement of oil and gas reserves and production [2] - Key initiatives include evaluating the potential for "multi-gas co-production and multi-energy utilization" and advancing deep-sea oil and gas field development technologies [2] - Hainan plans to grow the marine renewable energy sector and develop a "smart ocean" technology innovation hub [2] Group 3: Aerospace Industry - The plan focuses on cultivating the Wenchang International Aerospace City and building a significant aerospace innovation base [2] - It aims to enhance the core capabilities of commercial aerospace launch sites and accelerate the construction of supporting facilities [2] - The establishment of satellite manufacturing centers and the integration of satellite, rocket, and launch site development are also key objectives [2] Group 4: Tropical High-Efficiency Agriculture - Hainan will strengthen its tropical agriculture by enhancing the supply chains of key products such as mangoes, pineapples, and coffee [2] - The plan includes the introduction and promotion of "new, unique, and superior" varieties and the cultivation of Hainan agricultural product brands [2] Group 5: Overall Economic Impact - Since the establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port, the industrial system has been optimized, with the four leading industries (tourism, modern services, high-tech, and tropical agriculture) accounting for 67% of the province's GDP in 2024 [3] - The action plan targets an increase in this share to around 70% by 2027 [3] - Hainan aims to enhance the "new, green, and gold" content of industrial clusters, supporting sectors like offshore wind power, energy conservation, and artificial intelligence [3]