Inflation Overview - July CPI year-on-year growth slightly exceeded consensus expectations, while PPI year-on-year growth fell below expectations[1] - July CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, remaining flat year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.8%[2] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods prices fell by 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - Year-on-year growth in July was driven by other goods and services (8.0%), clothing (1.7%), and healthcare (0.5%), while food and tobacco prices fell by 0.8%[2] - Food prices contributed to a 0.29 percentage point decline in CPI year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices adding 0.22 percentage points to CPI growth[2] - Service prices accounted for approximately 0.26 percentage points of the month-on-month CPI increase, representing over 60% of the total CPI rise[6] PPI Insights - July PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline in production materials contributing significantly[15] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was the first narrowing since March, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties[16] - The overall PPI decline was impacted by eight industries, which collectively contributed approximately 0.24 percentage points to the PPI decrease[16] Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see a narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline due to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries[20] - Seasonal and policy factors may cause fluctuations in various price segments, particularly in food and durable goods[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[30]

核心CPI温和回升 7月物价运行边际改善 （上接1版） 物价整体运行趋稳 对下一阶段的物价走势，受访专家认为，更加积极有为的宏观政策将持续加码，内需恢复节奏有望进一 步加快，"反内卷"系列措施持续推进，国内物价运行趋稳。 东方金诚研究发展部总监冯琳表示，展望未来，"反内卷"将会带动8月相关工业品价格中枢高于7月，加 之上年同期基数显著走低，预计8月PPI环比有望继续改善。 "新推出的生育支持政策、免费学前教育相关举措、个人消费贷款贴息政策与服务业经营主体贷款贴息 政策等都将有效拉动内需，推动国内物价修复至合理水平。下一阶段，CPI将持续温和修复。"广开首席 产业研究院首席金融研究员王运金表示。 国家统计局副局长盛来运此前表示，下半年，相关政策尤其是扩内需政策继续显效，将拉动相关消费需 求，推动消费品价格回升。中央有关会议要求要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，有利于规范市场秩 序、改善市场环境。假期效应显现，会促进相关服务类价格稳定或者上行。无论是CPI还是PPI，翘尾因 素会减弱，对CPI、PPI下拉影响作用会降低。价格会保持低位温和回升态势。 季节性因素影响部分行业价格下降。董莉娟分析，夏季高温雨水天气增多： ...

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, while year-on-year it remained flat [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with significant price increases in gold and platinum jewelry [2] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in prices [2] Group 2 - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with service prices up 0.6% month-on-month [1][2] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies has led to a recovery in demand, contributing to the positive changes in prices across various sectors [3] - The recent PPI data suggests improvements in supply-demand relationships and reflects the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies aimed at optimizing industrial structures [3]

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, while year-on-year it remained flat [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [3] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was narrower than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in prices [2][3] Group 2 - Service prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the CPI rise, while industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, also saw a 0.2% increase [2] - The decline in food prices, down 1.6% year-on-year, was a major factor in keeping the year-on-year CPI unchanged [2] - The improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries is attributed to ongoing macroeconomic policies and consumer demand initiatives [4] Group 3 - Recent months have shown a stabilization in PPI declines, reflecting effective policy measures and structural adjustments in the industry [5] - The concept of "anti-involution" is expected to be a key focus for policies in the second half of the year, aiming to optimize resource allocation and improve industry efficiency [5] - The sustainability of price recovery remains uncertain and is contingent on effective policy execution and coordination [5]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% in June, while year-on-year it remained flat [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with significant price increases in gold and platinum jewelry at 37.1% and 27.3% respectively [2] - Service prices contributed to the CPI increase, rising by 0.6% month-on-month, accounting for over 60% of the total CPI increase [1][2] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was narrower by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in prices [1][2] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, consistent with the previous month, reflecting ongoing challenges in certain industries due to seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties [1][2] - Specific sectors such as non-metallic mineral products, black metal smelting, and coal mining experienced price declines, influenced by seasonal weather conditions and reduced demand for electricity [2] Group 3: Economic Policy and Market Dynamics - The ongoing macroeconomic policies are showing positive effects, with improvements in supply-demand relationships across various industries, leading to price increases in some sectors [3] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies is contributing to a healthier consumer market, with an increase in demand for upgraded consumer goods driving price rises [3] - The concept of "anti-involution" is expected to be a key focus for policies in the second half of the year, aiming to reshape supply-demand structures and enhance overall efficiency in industries facing overcapacity [3]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, with year-on-year growth remaining flat [1][3] - The year-on-year CPI was primarily influenced by lower food prices, which decreased by 1.6%, contributing approximately 0.29 percentage points to the CPI decline [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was less than the previous month, marking the first narrowing of the decline since March [5] - Seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment contributed to price decreases in several industries, including a 1.4% drop in non-metallic mineral products [5][6] - The prices in coal mining and washing, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing saw reduced declines compared to the previous month, indicating improved market competition [6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that prices are expected to gradually rise in the second half of the year, supported by stable economic performance and effective domestic demand expansion policies [6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [2] - In July, the CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices [4] - The decrease in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and fruits, significantly impacted the CPI, with fresh vegetable prices down 7.6% year-on-year and fruit prices up 2.8% [1][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was less than the previous month, marking the first narrowing of the month-on-month decline since March [6] - Seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment contributed to price decreases in several industries, including non-metallic mineral products and coal mining [6][7] - The competitive market environment in industries such as coal, steel, and photovoltaic manufacturing has led to a reduction in price declines compared to the previous month [7] Group 3: Future Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics anticipates a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year, supported by stable economic performance, effective demand expansion policies, and reduced low-price competition among enterprises [7]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, with a year-on-year change remaining flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a continuous expansion in growth for three consecutive months [2][3] - Service prices contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.6%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.26 percentage points [2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, marking the first narrowing of the month-on-month decline since March [4][5] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month, indicating some improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [5] - Seasonal factors and uncertainties in international trade affected prices in several sectors, with notable decreases in construction materials and energy-related prices [4][5]

国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年7月份CPI和PPI数据时表示，7月份，扩内需政策效应持 续显现，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.4%，同比持平，扣除食品和能源价 格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大。受季节性因素叠加国际贸易环境不确定性影响，工 业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.2%，国内市场竞争秩序持续优化，环比降幅比上月收窄0.2个 百分点，同比下降3.6%，降幅与上月相同。 二、PPI环比降幅收窄，同比降幅与上月相同 PPI环比下降0.2%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点，为3月份以来环比降幅首次收窄。本月PPI环比变动的 主要原因：一是季节性因素叠加国际贸易环境不确定性影响部分行业价格下降。夏季高温雨水天气增 多，一方面建筑项目施工进度放缓影响建材需求；另一方面部分地区河流水量充沛，水力发电对火力发 电的补充替代作用明显增强，电煤需求减少，电价下降。受此影响，非金属矿物制品业价格环比下降 1.4%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格下降0.3%；煤炭开采和洗选业价格下降1.5%，电力热力生产和 供应业价格下降0.9%。国际贸易环境不确定性影响下 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, with a year-on-year change remaining flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, and has expanded for three consecutive months [1][2] - Service prices contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.6%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel [2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the drop for the first time since March [1][4] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic policies and improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [1][5] - Seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties have influenced price changes in various sectors, with notable decreases in construction materials and energy-related prices [4][5]