专题：财经年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛 《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛于2025年12月18-20日在北京举行。香港科技 大学地缘经济研究所所长金刻羽在演讲中表示，西方遏制政策存在显著反噬效应。学术研究显示，被列 入美国实体清单的中国企业，研发支出平均增加18%，两年后国内专利申请增长17.6%，通过创新弥补 高科技产品供给缺口。同时，这些企业获得更多政府补贴，国内市场份额也随之提升，而美国相关企业 因失去中国市场遭受巨大损失。 她还表示，在知识传播方面，封锁已成为不可能。数据显示，2009年美国对中国专利的引用量极少，而 到2021年这一数值大幅增加。如今中国已成为IP输出国，美国则是全球IP的最大吸收国，分散性的技术 和知识网络已全面铺开。金刻羽举例表示，十九世纪可通过控制机器封锁技术，如今技术传播渠道多 元，知识网络互联互通，封锁策略已完全失效。 她还表示，在知识传播方面，封锁已成为不可能。数据显示，2009年美国对中国专利的引用量极少，而 到2021年这一数值大幅增加。如今中国已成为IP输出国，美国则是全球IP的最大吸收国，分散性的技术 和知识网络已全 ...

专题：财经年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛 第二，从企业投入行为看，企业是研发主力，但基础研究投入不足。企业已成为研发投入的主力执行主 体，但在基础研究上的投入明显不足。前几年有个统计，企业基础研究支出约 200 亿元左右，仅占企业 R&D支出的 1%左右。这意味着相当一部分企业研发仍主要集中在试验发展和产品迭代层面，对底层机 理、材料体系、算法范式等慢变量的长期积累不足。 第三，从政策体系看，企业做基础研究面临三重卡点还未解决。一是企业预期不稳，不愿投。短期财务 压力、资本市场绩效考核等因素，使企业更倾向于短周期、可见度高的项目。二是企业风险难分担，没 钱投。缺乏长期资本和有效风险分担机制，尤其对中小企业而言现金流约束突出。三是企业组织能力不 足，不会投。前沿判断能力、跨学科组织能力、平台支撑能力不足，导致难以把基础研究做成体系化、 可持续的能力建设。 第四，从趋势看，国家正在把企业更深地融入基础研究体系，但总体仍处在破题阶段。国家开始推动企 业从应用端参与走向源头端出题。比如2025年6月，国家自然科学基金民营企业创新发展联合基金签 署，首批4家民营企业加入，释放出民营企业以出题人身份参 ...

声明表示，出口增长反映了以色列经济的韧性，以及在经历了多线作战的"战争状态"后，经济仍能复苏 和发展的能力。出口增长还反映了对人力资本的投资以及对新市场的拓展，这些都为以色列经济的持续 增长奠定了基础。 （文章来源：新华财经） 同时，声明说，由于主要目标市场依然疲软，预计商品出口将从2024年的603亿美元下降5.5%至约570 亿美元。 声明说，2025年以色列对亚洲的出口持续增长，增幅达3.5%，而对非洲、拉丁美洲和大洋洲的出口则 呈现温和增长。对欧盟国家的出口下降约11%，对美国的出口下降约4%。 新华财经耶路撒冷12月16日电（记者王卓伦冯国芮）以色列经济产业部16日发表声明说，预计2025年该 国出口额达到约1600亿美元，比2024年增长3%，接近2022年创下的1650亿美元的纪录。 根据声明，服务出口占出口总额的52%，预计将增长9%，达到1010亿美元，高于2024年的927亿美元。 增长主要由软件、研发等高科技服务带动，凸显了这一行业对经济稳定的贡献。 ...

Group 1 - China's outbound direct investment continues to grow steadily, solidifying its position as a major investor globally, despite a decline in global cross-border direct investment [1] - Chinese enterprises are distributed across 190 countries, with nearly half of the top 20 investment destinations in 2024 being developed countries [1] - Investment in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 234.15 billion RMB in the first ten months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector saw its highest investment flow in 2024, increasing by 45.3% compared to 2020 [1] - The service industry, characterized by light assets, has flourished, with investments in logistics, R&D, business, and finance growing, extending the investment value chain [2] - In 2024, outbound investments contributed to $211 billion in goods exports, 1.2 times that of 2020 [2] Group 3 - Chinese outbound investments have improved infrastructure in host countries, enhancing employment and tax revenues, and accelerating their green and digital transformation [2] - In 2024, Chinese enterprises paid a total of $82.1 billion in various taxes to host countries, employing 5.021 million people, with 3.304 million being local employees [2] - The focus on localization in investment strategies is emphasized, aiming to enhance sustainable development capabilities in host countries [3]

Core Points - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's recent speeches and directives, focusing on building an international convention and exhibition center city, an international R&D center city, and improving urban drainage and sewage treatment systems [1][2] Group 1: International Convention and Exhibition Center City - The city aims to leverage its transportation advantages to attract advanced manufacturing and modern service industries globally, with a focus on high-quality development of the convention and exhibition sector [2] - The strategy includes enhancing exhibition facilities, nurturing operational entities, and promoting well-known brands, while also creating a diverse exhibition service system [2] Group 2: International R&D Center City - The city is committed to gathering global R&D innovation resources and providing related services, aiming to establish a high-level international R&D center [2] - There will be a focus on innovation in institutional mechanisms and operational models, strengthening new R&D institutions and platforms, and fostering R&D enterprises [2] Group 3: Urban Drainage and Sewage Treatment - The meeting called for a comprehensive approach to urban water management, emphasizing planning, project support, and smart technology integration to improve urban drainage and sewage treatment systems [2]

Core Insights - China's manufacturing industry has achieved "five leading and five parallel" sectors, with automotive, shipbuilding, power equipment, high-speed rail equipment, and new energy equipment leading globally, while new materials, biomedicine, high-end equipment, aerospace, and artificial intelligence are on par with developed countries [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The global share of China's manufacturing industry has reached 32% [1] - The leading sectors are automotive, shipbuilding, power equipment, high-speed rail equipment, and new energy equipment [1] - The parallel sectors include new materials, biomedicine, high-end equipment, aerospace, and artificial intelligence [1] Group 2: Service Industry - The productive service industry encompasses ten categories: R&D, logistics, inspection and testing, finance, green low-carbon, digitalization, trade, intellectual property, professional consulting, and human resources [1] - This sector is identified as a growth driver for GDP, unicorn cultivation, service trade enhancement, and total factor productivity [1] - There is a call for private enterprises to expand into the productive service industry to alleviate manufacturing competition, create job opportunities for graduates, and revitalize office resources [1]

Core Viewpoint - Accelerating the development of service trade is crucial for expanding high-level opening-up and cultivating new momentum for foreign trade development. Recent policies aim to enhance service exports and promote high-quality development in service trade [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The newly issued policies include utilizing funding channels and improving bonded supervision systems to boost service exports [1]. - Specific measures target financial and tax support, enhancing precision and effectiveness in promoting service export new business models and green services [1][2]. Group 2: Investment and Funding - The Service Trade Innovation Development Fund, approved by the State Council, plays a significant role in driving service trade innovation and has invested 93 billion yuan in 47 sub-funds and 25 direct projects as of May last year [2]. - The fund has invested in 538 enterprises, totaling 424 billion yuan, demonstrating its capacity to leverage social capital for service trade development [2]. Group 3: Taxation and Efficiency - Implementing a zero tax rate for service exports encourages expansion, with the new policies optimizing the application process for this tax exemption [2]. - The focus is on streamlining tax filing procedures and enhancing inter-departmental collaboration to improve efficiency in service export tax refunds [2]. Group 4: Overall Impact - Strengthening the collaboration among financial, regulatory, and tax policies is expected to enhance the international competitiveness of service export enterprises, indicating a positive outlook for China's service trade [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disconnect between research and development (R&D) teams and the recognition they receive within companies, highlighting a trend where R&D contributions are overlooked in favor of marketing and financing achievements [4]. Group 1: R&D Recognition - Successful R&D projects often lead to celebrations that exclude the engineers and technicians who contributed to the success, indicating a lack of appreciation for their work [1]. - The analogy of a farmer celebrating a harvest without acknowledging the labor of the farm animals illustrates the sentiment that R&D efforts are undervalued [3]. Group 2: Company Culture - Many companies prioritize marketing and financing over R&D, treating R&D personnel as expendable resources rather than integral team members [4]. - The statement "R&D is just a tool for output, while financing is the focus" reflects a broader industry trend where R&D is not seen as a core function [4]. - The culture within these companies suggests a lack of respect for R&D, with the implication that anyone can provide technical guidance, undermining the expertise of R&D professionals [4].

Core Points - The newly released measures aim to support the development of R&D centers in Qianhai, Shenzhen, with financial incentives and tax benefits to attract global and domestic enterprises [1][2][3] Financial Support - Eligible R&D centers can receive up to 2 million RMB in research preparation funds, while multinational companies can receive up to 6 million RMB, distributed over three years at 40%, 30%, and 30% [1] - Additional support includes a maximum of 3 million RMB for 20% of last year's qualified direct investment, depreciation, long-term deferred expenses, and intangible asset amortization [1] - Tax incentives include a reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% for qualifying R&D centers and personal income tax subsidies for high-end and scarce talents [1][2] Space and Service Support - Multinational R&D centers can enjoy two years of rent exemption and a 30% rent discount in the third year, while other R&D centers can benefit from one year of rent exemption and a 50% discount in the second year [1] - The measures encourage collaboration with domestic and international universities and research institutions to form innovation consortia [2] Eligibility Criteria - To qualify as an "enterprise R&D center" or "multinational global R&D center," entities must engage in substantial R&D activities in Qianhai, with a total R&D investment of no less than 2 million USD (or 15 million RMB) and at least 20 dedicated R&D personnel [2] Implementation and Response - The measures are the first regional-level support policy for R&D centers in Shenzhen following Guangdong's guidelines for foreign-funded R&D centers [3] - The announcement has generated significant interest among R&D centers, with companies preparing to apply for the funding [2][3]

Core Insights - China has replaced Germany as one of the top ten most innovative countries in the United Nations annual ranking, primarily due to significant investments in research and development by Chinese enterprises [1][3] Group 1: Global Innovation Index Overview - The Global Innovation Index covers 139 economies and ranks them based on 78 indicators [3] - Switzerland continues to hold the top position, followed by Sweden and the United States, with China ranking tenth [3] - Other countries in the top ten include South Korea, Singapore, the United Kingdom, Finland, the Netherlands, and Denmark [3] Group 2: China's Position in Innovation - China is rapidly closing the financing gap in the private sector and is becoming the largest country in terms of research and development investment [3] - In 2024, China contributed approximately 25% of international patent applications, maintaining its status as the largest source country [3] - The combined patent application share of the United States, Japan, and Germany has seen a slight decline, accounting for 40% of the total applications [3] Group 3: Innovation Clusters - The World Intellectual Property Organization has released a list of the top 100 innovative clusters, with China leading globally for the third consecutive year with 24 clusters [3]